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HomeMy Public PortalAbout1996 - Comprehensive Plan UpdateCOMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Prepared for: City of Jefferson, Missouri Prepared by: Landform Urban Planning Services St. Louis, Missouri Contributing Consultants PGAV – Urban Consulting St. Louis, Missouri (Plan Consultation & Recreation Facilities Component) And Techniciplan, Inc. St. Louis, Missouri March, 1996 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Purpose of Planning and Zoning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Planning Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 PART 1: COMMUNITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 CHAPTER 1: ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS . . . . . . . 7 Employment and Income Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Trends in Retail Sales And Consumer Spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Demographic Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 CHAPTER 2: LAND USE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Existing Land Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Undeveloped Land by Current City Zoning and Estimated Future Land Use Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 48 CHAPTER 3: UTILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Water Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Water Supply Development Support Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Sanitary Sewer System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Stormwater Drainage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 CHAPTER 4: DEVELOPMENT FACTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Cole County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Callaway County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 CHAPTER 5: RECREATION FACILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ·. . 87 How Recreation is Perceived-A U.S. and Jefferson City Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Perceived Benefits of Local Parks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 U.S. Trends in Outdoor Recreation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Jefferson City -Activities and Attitudes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Determination of Recreational Demands & Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Recreation Patterns in Jefferson City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Current Facility Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 CHAPTER 6: SUB-AREA ANALYSES . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 High/Chestnut Street Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 East McCarty Street Area ....................................... . D owntown Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHAPTER 7: SOLID WASTE ISSUES •••••••• 0 • 0 •••••••••• 0 •••••• 0 ••••• 0 Introductio n ............................................... . Recent Hi story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Current Status in Jefferson City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Future Co nsiderat io ns ......................................... . PART II: GOALS AND OBJECTIVES .................................. . CHAPTER 8 : GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ................................ . Introduction ............................................... . Overall Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Land Use ................................................. . Transportation and Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Utilities .................................................. . Parks and Recreation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other Public Facilities ......................................... . Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PART III: DEVEWPMENT PLAN .................................... . CHAPTER 9: LAND USE AND MAJOR STREET PLAN ...................... . Introduction ............................................... . Land Use ................................ , ................ . Implications on Zoning ........................... , ............ . Major Streets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHAPTER 10: SUB -AREA PLANS .................................... . High/Chestnut Street Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . East McCarty Street Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Downtown Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHAPTER 11: PARKS AND RECREATION PLAN .......................... . Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Future Facility Requirements ..................................... . Capital Projects for Recreation Facility Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Summary ................................................. . CHAPTER 12: IMPLEMENTATION .................................... . Introduction ............................................... . Plan Adoption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Zoning and Subdivision Regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Annexation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sewer Extension/Connection Policy ................................. . Redevelopment Tools . •. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Major Capital Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Comprehensive Plan Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii 133 139 149 149 149 151 15 2 153 155 155 155 156 160 164 166 167 168 169 171 171 171 181 184 191 191 195 199 203 203 204 .j 213 . l 214 215 215 216 217 221 223 224 229 229 I ._1 INTRODUCTION This document represents the outcome of a comprehensive planning program update initiated by the City of Jefferson in 1992. The last full Comprehensive Plan update for Jefferson City was completed in 1969. Supplemental updates were completed in 1978 and 1986. This Comprehensive Plan contains considerable information on the City and the region, with regard to physical and socioeconomic characteristics, and future development recommendations. This document consists of three parts which, together, make up the CompreMnsive Plan. They are: PaTti: Community Anlllyris; Pan II: Goals tuUl Objectives; tuUl Pa11111: Development Plan. The findings of the Community Analysis phase was important in assessing future growth potential of the community and its ability to support such growth. The Goals and Objectives were developed to serve as a guide in preparing the Development Plan and to serve as a guide to future decisions concerning community development. The Development Plan is intended to be a policy document which sets forth the general arrangement of future land uses, major streets, and parks and open space, within and beyond the current City limits. Pur,pose of Planning and Zonin& Before explaining the purpose of planning and zoning, it is important to distinguish the basic differences between the two subjects. In very general terms, planning can be defined as a scheme for making, doing or arranging something. A comprehensive plan, in essence, sets the framework for future development. It is based on a assessment of existing conditions and establishment of goals and objectives for the community's future. It is a "policy" document that recommends how the future community physical make-up should be. It is normally "comprehensive" in scope, whereby land use, major streets, utilities, parks and open space, etc. are integrated into a unified scheme. Zoning is the "legal" tool the city uses to regulate land use. The city is afforded this regulatory authority per Chapter 89 of the Revised Statutes of Missouri (R.S.Mo.). Specifically, a zoning ordinance regulates items relating to the use of land, height and size of buildings, size of lots, 1 size of yards (building setbacks), and parking. It establishes definitions, standards, and procedures for the city's governing body to review and approve specific land developments. Zoning regulations should be based on a sound and rational plan for the community. In fact, R.S.Mo., Section 89.040, states that such regulations shall be made in accordance with a comprehensive plan. Furthermore, case law reveals that land development control regulations cannot be arbitrary and capricious. For these reasons, it is imperative that a community carefully consider its development goals, objectives, and policies, and document them in a comprehensive plan. If done properly, the plan will provide a strong foundation for the city's zoning authority. Figure 1 provides a summary of the key features of a comprehensive plan and a zoning code. The control of the use of land, through zoning, is essential to avoid/mitigate incompatible land uses, traffic congestion, environmental degradation and other negative community impacts, which are more likely to occur without development control. Also a reasonable, but relatively stringent, control is important to encouraging private development. The reason is that an individual or business, investing money into a residential or commercial property, can proceed with confidence in what the future holds for the city's land use pattern and, JnOre particularly, their immediate surroundings. Planning Process Preparing a comprehensive plan is a structured process and, in order for it to have community support, it is essential to have citizen input. Figure 2 illustrates the basic planning process employed by the City of Jefferson. Citizen input was solicited, via a public workshop, early in the community analysis phase. This input was used in formulating tile goals and objectives for the plan. During the plan formulation stage, several concept plans were prepared, along with a preliminary statement of goals and objectives. The attendees at the first workshop, and the community at large, were invited again to review and comment on these plan proposals, prior to preparing a pre-final plan for public hearing purposes. While a public hearing on the comprehensive plan is required by law (for purposes of public input), it was the intent of the Jefferson City planning process to involve the public at several stages prior to such hearing. 2 Figure I SUMMARY OF PLANNING AND ZONING 1. Serves as a guide for decisions concerning the community's physical development. 2 . Takes a comprehensive approach to a wide range of community development issues (e.g., land use, major streets, parks & open space, etc.). 3. Documents community development goals and objectives . 4. Recommends location and intensity of land uses, major street improvements, parks and open space, etc. 5 . Provides a rational basis for administering the zoning code and other development regulations. Tlie. pCan is a "POLICY" d'ocume.nt 1. Is the legal tool for achieving community development goals & objectives estab li s h ed through the planning process . 2. Regulates specific items r e lativ e to land developm e nt: a. use of land b . height and size of buildings c. size of lots d. yards and other open spaces e. buffers between incompatable land uses f. parking 3. Establishes definitions , standards and procedures for reviewing and approving land development. Tlie zonin9 cocle is a "LEGAL" d'ocume.nt Figure 2 COMMUNITY PLANNING PROCESS • Collection and evaluation of pertinent information about the community and its surroundi~gs, (e.g., land use, major streets, utilities, etc.) • To be used for identifying trends, constraints and opportunities regarding future development. 0 ' • Defined by community residents, elected officials and staff. • Typically address problems, opportunities, needs and values as they affect planning for future development and neighborhood preservation. · • • 0 0 0 ~ Based upon background information and stated goals and objectives. Formulate interrelated plan elements such as land use, major streets, utilities, etc. 0 0 ' • Hold public hearing on the plan. • Revise/refine the plan, if deemed appropriate. • Community legislative body officially adopts the plan as a policy guide for community development. • Refinement of zoning and subdivision codes and adoption of other regulatory controls as necessary. • Establishment of policy and programs (e.g., capital improvements program) designed to achieve plan proposals. 4 ~············· -t'-1 ~ z < 0 ~ .... t'-1 In ~ .... .,... ;... = ~ ~ Q .,... z ~ < > z ..:a 0 ~ .... E-E-< < ::E ~ .... ..:a ~ < 0 .,... ~ ~ ~ ~ < - PART 1: COMMUNITY ANALYSIS Comprehensive Plan Update 5 " ·.\ CHAPTER! ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Emplovment and Income Trends Introduction Place of residence data for jobholders working in Cole County in 1980 indicate that the labor market area (LMA) for Jefferson City includes both Callaway and Osage Counties, Missouri. In 1980, almost 3,000 residents of Callaway County worked in Cole County. These 3,000 workers represented 14.1 percent of the total labor force living in Callaway County at that time. In the case of Osage County, 1, 750 workers residing in that county held jobs located in Cole County. Those 1,750 residents represented 28.9 percent of the total labor force living in Osage County in 1980. At the same time, more than 1,100 residents of Cole County commuted to jobs located in Callaway and Osage Counties. By way of contrast, only 923 residents of Boone County commuted to jobs located in Cole County. Moreover, only 413 residents of Cole County commuted to work locations in Boone County. The above flows of workers between Cole, Callaway and Osage Counties warrant their inclusion in this analysis of recent employment and income trends within the Jefferson City LMA. Although 1990 data on place of work versus place of residence was not available at the time of this writing, it was estimated that the number of non-residents working in Cole County in 1990 was substantially greater than the 8,446 tabulated by the Department of Labor during 1980. It is estimated that the comparable 1990 number will be in the range of 10,500 to 11,000, which is confirmed by the analysis of Cole County payrolls presented later in this Chapter. Based on employment and income totals, Cole and Osage Counties represent the two extremes. Approximately midway between these two extremes, Callaway County•s 1990 employment equalled just 30 percent of the total jobs located in Cole County. In contrast, Callaway•s 11,829 wage and salary jobs dwarfed the 2,014 jobs in Osage County by a factor of almost six to one. 7 Trends in Cole County Between 1985 and 1990, wage and salary employment located in Cole County grew at an annual 3.0 percent rate. As a result, total employment rose from 33,800 to 39,213-a gain of more than 1,000 jobs annually. Four employment sectors generated 4 of every 5 new jobs added in the period. Table 1 summarizes the separate contributions of these sectors. Table 1 Major Sources of Job Gains (1985 -1990) Cole County, Missouri 1 Employment Sector Jobs Added Services 1,977 State Government 1,451 Wholesale Trade 561 Manufacturing 483 Subtotal 4,472 All Other Sectors 941 Total 5,413 Percent of Total Gain 36.5 26.8 10.4 8.9 82.6 17.4 100.0. During this period of employment gains, annual earnings from wage and salaried employment grew from $548.1 million in 1985 to $786.4 million in 1990 (see Table 2). However, these two figures are not truly comparable, since a dollar earned. in 1990 had less purchasing power than a dollar earned in 1985. These figures have therefore been inflation adjusted using the 1982 value of a dollar as the base. The adjusted figures of $490.5 million in 1985 and $605.5 million in 1990 reflect a compound growth rate averaging 4.29 percent per year throughout the last half of the 1980's. Wage and salary income comprises most, but not all, money income received by individuals. Other income sources, such as interest and dividends~ make up the remainder. In Cole County, these other sources grew about as rapidly as did earnings from wages and salaries-4.30 percent a year compounded (see Table 2). 1 Source: Missouri Division of Employment Security (MODES); and economist N. Bradley Susman. 8 .I .. ) Since jobs added during the 1985-1990 period absorbed a significant portion of the aggregate income growth, the rate of income growth per individual job would necessarily be lower than the growth rate in aggregate income. And, indeed, it was, averaging only 1.25 percent a year on an inflation-adjusted basis (see Table 2). Money income per individual resident of Cole County grew at an annual rate that was appreciably faster than the growth rate of money income per job -3.63 versus 1.25 percent, respectively. The reason for this difference in growth rates stemmed from an increase in the number of Cole County jobs per 100 residents-54.9 versus 61.7 jobs per 100 residents in 1985 and 1990, respectively. Accompanying this increase was a rise in the proportion of the resident population at work or looking for work. According to the Missouri Division of Employment Security, this proportion rose from 52.5 percent in 1985 to 56.1 percent in 1990. Table2 Income Growth Rates (1985 -1990) Cole County, Missouri 2 Thousands of Dollars Income Category 1985 1990 Total Wage and Salary Income 3 -Current Dollars $ 548,100 $ 786,400 -Inflation -Adjusted 490,500 605,500 Total Money Income 4 -Current Dollars 655,921 941,048 -Intlation -Adjusted 587,049 724,607 Inflation -Adjusted Income -Wages & Salaries per Job 14.5 15.4 -Total Income per Job 17.4 18.5 -Total Income per Resident 9.5 11.4 Annual Growth Rate 1985-1990 7.49% 4.29 7.49 4.30 1.25 1.25 3.63 By way of comparison, the 1990 Census recorded aggregate money income (in 1989 dollars) of $834,426,000. In contrast, estimates derived from the relationship between wage and salary 2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce; MODES; and economist N. Bradley Susman. · 3 Place of Work Basis. 4 Place of Residence Basis. 9 earnings, and total money income, indicat~ aggregate money income of Cole County residents in 1989 was $941,048,000. On a per household basis, average money income was only $36,174 according to the 1990 Census, but was $40,796 when derived from the earnings/total income relationship. Under-reporting of income by Census respondents has been widely acknowledged for many years. The figures for total money income, in Table 2, exclude wages and salaries earned in Cole County by non-residents. Estimates prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate the percentage of wage and salary income earned in Cole County by non-residents of the County stood at 23.9 percent in 1980. By 1985, this non-resident share of earnings had risen to 26.8 percent. It subsequently rose further, to 27.4 percent in 1990. However, as will be discussed in the section on retail sales and consumer spending, a substantial portion of non-resident income earned in Cole County is recycled through Cole County retailers. In terms of 1990 commuter flows, the 27.4 percent of Cole County payrolls paid to non-residents translates into an estimated i0,744 non-resident workers in that year. Trends in Callaway County Between 1985 and 1990, wage and salary employment located in this county grew at an annual rate of 3.51 percent. During this period, overall employment rose from 9,956 to 11 ,829 -an average gain of 375 jobs annually. This employment growth took place despite substantial reductions in construction jobs occasioned by the completion of work on Union Electric's Callaway power generating plant. Again, just four employment sectors accounted for 90 percent of the jobs added during the period. Table 3 summarizes the separate contributions of these sectors. During this period of employment gains, annual earnings from wage and salaried employment grew from $170 million in 1985 to $229 million in 1990 (see Table 4). As noted earlier, these two figures are not truly comparable, since a dollar earned in 1990 bad less purchasing power than a dollar earned in 1985. These figures have, therefore, been inflation-adjusted using the 1982 value of a dollar as the base. The adjusted figures of$152 million in 1985 and $176.2 million in 1990 reflect a compound growth rate averaging 3.01 percent per year throughout the last half of the 1980's. Sources of income other than wages and salaries, such as interest, dividends and rent, increased in Callaway County at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.59 percent. These non-job related sources of income thus experienced a growth rate slightly below that of wage and salary 1 earnings (see Table 4). 10 Table 3 Major Sources of Job Gains (1985 -1990) , Callaway County, Missouri 5 Employment Sector Jobs Added Services 705 State Government 438 Transportation & Utilities 324 Retail Trade 255 Subtotal 1,722 All Other Sectors 151 Total 1,873 Percent of Total Gain 37.6 23.4 17.3 13.6 91.9 8.1 100.0 Jobs added during the 1985-1990 period absorbed a significant portion of the overall growth in income. For that r~on, the rate of inoome growth per individual job (both new and existing) would necessarily be lower than the growth rate in aggregate income. As a matter of fact, the elimination of high paying construction jobs at the Union Electric Callaway facility actually caused this growth rate to tum moderately negative -a decline averaging 0.50 percent annually (see Table 4). Despite the negative growth in income per job, money income per individual resident of Callaway County continued to rise by 2.50 percent annually. This rise stemmed from the increase in the number of Callaway County jobs per 100 residents-31.3 versus 36.1 jobs per 100 residents in 1985 and 1990, respectively. Accompanying this increase was a rise in the proportion of the resident population at work or looking for work. According to the Missouri Division of Employment Security, this proportion rose from 41.5 percent in 1985 to 49.9 percent in 1990. By way of comparison, the 1990 Census recorded aggregate money income (in 1989 dollars) of $353,575,000. In contrast, estimates derived from the relationship between wage and salary earnings, total money income, indicated aggregate money income of Callaway County residents in 1989 was $436,565,000. On a per household basis, average money income was only $30,528 a~cording to the 1990 Census, but was $37,693 when derived from the earnings/total income relationship. Under-reporting of income by Census respondents has been widely acknowledged for many years. 5 Source: MODES and economist N. Bradley Susman. 11 Table 4 Income Growth Rates (1985 -1990) Callaway County, Missouri 6 Thousands of Dollars Income Category 1985 1990 Total Wage and Salary Income 7 -Current Dollars $ 170,000 $ 229,000 -Inflation -Adjusted 152,000 176,300 Total Money Income 8 -Current Dollars 324,087 936,565 -Inflation -Adjusted 290,058 336,155 Inflation -Adjusted Income -Wages & Salaries per Job 15.0 14.9 -Total Income per Job 29.1 28.4 -Total Income per Resident 9.1 10.2 Annual Growth Rate 1985-1990 6.13 3.01 6.14 2.99 (0.15) (0.50) 2.50 The above figures for total money income exclude wages and salaries earned in Callaway County by non-residents. Estimates prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate the percentage of wage and salary income earned in Callaway County by non-residents of the County stood at 11.0 percent in 1980. By 1985, this non-resident share of Callaway County earnings was more than offset by resident earnings in other counties. By 1990, the offset was such that resident earnings outside Callaway County represented 14.5 percent of total earnings by workers residing in Callaway County. If the 1980 pattern of commuter flows also prevailed in 1990, then some 3,750 residents of Callaway County held jobs in Cole County in the latter year. Most of these "outside" earnings probably originated in Cole County. However, as will be discussed in the section on retail sales and consumer spending, a substantial portion of non-resident income earned in Cole County is recycled through Cole County retailers. 6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce: MODES; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 1 Place of Work Basis. 8 Place of Residence Basis. 12 r' Trends in Osage County .r I' I . J J Between 1985 and 1990, wage and salary employment located in this county added only 9 jobs. The manufacturing sector and government both contracted. This contraction resulted in a loss of 33 jobs. Modest gains in retail trade and in finance, insurance and real estate offset that loss. The gain of only 9 jobs over the five year period illustrates the stagnant nature of economic activity in Osage County during the last half of the 1980's. Wage and salary trends offer further evidence of stagnation. On an inflation-adjusted basis, · · total wage and salary payrolls in Osage County declined at an annual rate of 1.86 percent (see Table 5). Aggregate money income, bolstered somewhat by government transfer payments, also declined. However, the annual rate was only 1.65 percent throughout this period. In terms of money income per individual job, another decline, this time 1. 70 percent annually, was another reflection of locally stagnant economic conditions. With virtually no employment growth, the ratio of jobs per 100 residents in Osage County increased by only 0'.2 percent-from 16.6 jobs per 100 residents in 1985 to only 16.8 jobs in 1990. Consequently, the trend in inflation-adjusted money income per individual resident, as well as per individual job, was also negative. By way of comparison, the 1990 Census recorded aggregate household money income (in 1989 dollars) of$118,471,000. In contrast, estimates derived from the relationship between wage and salary earnings, and total money income, indicated aggregate money income of Osage County residents in 1989 was $122,960,000. On a per household basis, average money income was only $27,797 according to the 1990 Census, but was $28,850 when derived from the earnings/total income relationship. Again, under-reporting of income by Census respondents has been widely acknowledged for many years. The figures shown in Table 5 for total money income include wages and salaries earned in other counties by Osage County residents. Estimates prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate the percentage of wage and salary income earned outside Osage County by its residents stood at 60.4 percent in 1980 . 13 Table 6 Trends In Retail Sales, 1982 -1987 ($000) Cole County and Jefferson City LMA 12 Type of Retailer Lumber/ Food Auto Gas Year & Area GAF 13 Hardware Stores Dealers Stations 1982: LMA(2) $98,239 $26,835 $ 84,459 $95,906 $ 36,919 Cole County 69,452 12,977 58,234 73,356 17,792 % ofLMA 70.7% 48.4% 68.9% 16.5% 48.2% 1987: LMA 14 $135,707 $45,443 $113,727 $156,184 $ 67,124 Cole County 112,386 24,782 75,501 116,877 34,768 % ofLMA 82.8% 54.5% 66.4% 74.8% 51.8% 12 Source: Census of Retail Trade, 1982 and 1987; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 13 General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores. 14 Labor Market Area: Cole, Callaway and Osage Counties. 16 J !_·J Restau'ts Misc. &Bars Stores Total $ 35,238 $ 87,756 $465,352 23,679 85,735 341,225 67.2% 97.7% 73.3% $51,713 $204,649 $774,547 38,112 191,815 594,241 73.7% .93/7% 76.7% .. r' In addition to traditional shoppers' good merchandise, food ~tores, as well as restaurants and bars in Cole County also attract a certain amount of non-resident patronage. It was estimated that shoppers from Callaway and Osage Counties bought $6.6 million of merchandise in Cole County food stores during 1982. This figure rose to an estimated $7.6 million in 1987. These same shopper groups spent an estimated $3.0 million in Cole County restaurants and bars during 1982. By 1987, such patronage had climbed to an estimated $6.7 million. To fully appreciate such non-resident patronage, Table 7 distributes retail sales in selected stores among the several type of patrons. The figures in Table 7 reveal the reasonably steady patronage from Callaway and Osage County households, as well as the dramatic increase in patronage by residents of other counties and from non-household sectors within the greater Jefferson City trade area. Table 7 Source and Amount of Patronage for Selected Retail Stores (1982 and 1987) Cole County, Missouri 15 Source &. Amount of PatroiUU!e ~.,_,..,..,..'" Cole Co. Callaway&. ~eCounty Year & Type of Store Households Households Other Patrons 1987 -GAF Stores $69,220 $25,465 $ 17,701 -Miscellaneous Retail 56,055 26,674 109,086 -Food Stores 65,009 7,592 2,900 -Restaurants & Bars 28,837 6,724 2,551 Total $219,121 $66,455 $132,238 % ofTotal 52.4% 16.0% 31.6% 1982 -GAF Stores $ 49,710 $ 16,162 $ 13,670 -Miscellaneous Retail 40,256 16,281 19,108 -Food Stores 46,686 6,598 4,950 -Restaurants & Bars 19,709 1,999 1,971 Total $156,361 $ 41,040 $ 39,699 % ofTotal 65.9% 17.3% 16.7% 15 Source: Census of Retail Trade, 1982 and 1987; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 17 Total $112,386 191,815 75,501 38,112 $417,814 100% $79,542 75,645 58,234 23,679 $237,100 100% Trends in .Jefferson City Retail sales in the City of Jefferson represented 96.9 percent of all retail sales in Cole County during 1982. The comparable percentage for 1987 was 97 .2. percent. Clearly, then, no major retail shopping areas were in unincorporated Cole County as of 1987. Among the seven major retail sectors, three had 1982 shares of countywide sales that fell below the City's overall share of countywide retail sales. These sectors included lumber and hardware stores, with 89.9 percent of countywide sales, and gasoline service stations, with just 77.8 percent of service station sales countywide (see Table 8). Motor vehicle dealers also had a share slightly lower than the City's overall share of all retail sales. In 1987, these three sectors had shares of countywide sales that were still below the City's overall share of countywide retail sales. However, they had been now joined by the City's food store group, whose share of countywide food store sales slipped below the City's overall share of all retail sales. Other retail sectors in the City registered a reduced ·share of countywide sales between 1982 1. and 1987. However, their 1987 shares remained higher than the City's overall share of all retail sales ~ countywide. Sectors falling into this category of declining shares included the GAF group and restaurants and bars. These two sectors are among those which attract substantial non-resident p~tronage and thus sales taxes from consumers living outside the City. Should the trend in declining shares for these sectors continue, the City may want to consider options for sustaining the viability of retailers in these two sectors. Despite the declines registered by certain sectors, the City's overall share of countywide retail sales rose between 1982 and 1987. This was largely due to the dramatic increase in sales by miscellaneous retail stores within the City. This also is a sector which attracts significant non-resident patronage. The City's share of countywide sales by miscellaneous retail sales approached 100 percent in 1987. Such a share was all the more important because this sector alone accounted for 46 percent of the total gain in Cole County retail sales between 1982 and 1987. Based on taxable sales data for Cole County in 1991, countywide retail sales totaled almost $718 million for that year. Comparable data from the City of Jefferson will allow an examination of the trend in retail sales between 1987 and 1991. However, this economic census data will not be available until the mid-1990's. 18 Table 8 City Shares or County Retail Sales (1982 and 1987) Cole County and Jefferson City, Missouri 16 Retail Sales ($000) Retail Sector Cole County Jefferson City 1982 -GAF 17 $79,542 $79,195 -Lumber/Hardware 12,977 11,672 -Food Stores 58,234 56,528 -Motor Vehicle Dealers 73,356 70,300 -Gasoline Stations 17,792 13,838 -Restaurants & Bars 18 23,679 25,002 -Drug & Other Misc. Stores 75,645 74,228 Total $341,225 $316,925 1987 -GAFt7 $112,386 $110,343 -Lumber/Hardware 24,782 21,695 -Food Stores 75,501 71,607 -Motor Vehicle Dealers 116,877 112,847 -Gasoline Stations 34,768 32,251 -Restaurants & Bars 38,112 37,857 -Drug & Other Misc. Stores 191,815 191,141 Total $594,241 $577,741 Pemo&raphic Trends Introduction City as a %of County 99.6 89.9 97.1 95.8 77.8 105.6 98.1 96.9 98.2 87.5 94.8 96.6 92.8 99.3 99.6 97.2 The focus of this analysis, unlike the examination of trends in employment, income and retail sales, is restricted to the population living in just two townships. These townships encompass the 16 Source: Census of Retail Trade, 1982 and 1987; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 17 General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores. 18 Jefferson City sales exceeded those of Cole County due to City establishments in Callaway County. 19 corporate limits of Jefferson City and the adjacent development in unincorporated areas of Callaway -~ and Cole Counties. This area encompasses the Jefferson City "planning area." Summit Township in Callaway County contains three population groups. These groups differ from one another with regard to their place of residence. One group resides in Jefferson City, another in Holts Summit, and the third in unincorporated areas of Summit Township. Jefferson Township in Cole County contains two population groups -those living in the City of Jefferson and those residing elsewhere in the Township. Throughout the following pages, comparisons will be drawn between attributes that characterize one group and those which characterize another. Population and Households Summit Township: Population gains between 1980 and 1990 in Summit Township totalled only 205 (see Table 9). However, this total masks the fact that the town of Holts Summit lost population, while gains occurred both in the Jefferson City portion and the unincorporated areas of the Township. .The Jefferson City gain was due to the consolidation of Cedar City into the corporate limits of Jefferson City in 1989. Related to population changes, Summit Township added 123 households during the 1980-1990 decade. Again, however, these additions were not uniformly distributed. Holts Summit actually lost 80 households, whereas the area in Jefferson City added more than a hundred households, again associated with the Cedar City consolidation. Unincorporated areas of the township added almost 100 households during the 1980's. Jefferson Township: On the Cole County side of the river, 1980-1990 population changes of greater magnitude occurred in Jefferson Township. This township added 4,938 residents during the decade (see Table 10). Jefferson City gained 1,581 of these residents, while unincorporated areas of the township added more than twice that number. Household additions between 1980 and 1990 included 1,529 in the City and 1,094 new households in unincorporated areas of the Township. Thus, the City gained only slightly more residents than it did households. In contrast, the unincorporated areas adjacent to the City attracted fewer, but larger households, during the 1980-1990 period. 20 Table 9 Population and Household Changes (1980 -1990) in Summit Township Callaway County, Missouri 19 Location Jefferson Holts Unincorp. Year City Summit Area Number of Persons: 1990 319 2,279 3,627 1980 25 2,526 3,469 1980-1990 294 (247) 158 Change Number of Households: 1990 115 804 1,182 1980 10 884 1,084 1980-1990 105 (80) 98 Change Table 10 Population and Household Changes (1980 -1990) in Jefferson Township Cole County, Missouri 20 Location Jefferson Unincorporated Year City Area Number of Persons: 1990 35,175 12,875 1980 33,594 9,518 1980-90 Change 1,581 3,357 Number of Households: 1990 14,160 4,092 1980 12,631 2,998 1980-90 Change 1,529 1,084 Summit Twp. Total 6,225 6,020 205 2,101 1,978 123 Jefferson Twp. Total 48,050 43,112 4,938 18,252 15,629 2,623 19 Source: Census of Population, 1980 and 1990; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 3J Source: Census of Population, 1980 and 1990; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 21 The tendency for the population 65 years old and older to become more prominent is, with some exceptions, generally true in Jefferson City and its environs. Exceptions exist among the populations residing in the unincorporated area of Summit Township and the portion of Jefferson City within that township. The portion of Jefferson City in Jefferson Township had the largest concentration of senior citizens in 1980-4,406 persons representing 13.1 percent of the total population (see Table 11). This percentage had increased to 15.6 percent by 1990. However, relative to their 1980 values, the percentage of senior citizens in unincorporated areas grew by the same proportion as did the percentage living in the City. These unincorporated areas simply had a much smaller share of persons 65 years old and older both in 1980 and 1990. Moreover, only 6.5 percent of the population gain in these areas consisted of senior citizens. In contrast, 70 percent of Jefferson City's gain was in age groups 65 years old and older. Table 11 Number and Percent of Total Population 65 Years or Older by I..Gcation (1980 and 1990) Jefferson City, Missouri and Environs 21 I.AK:ation Jefferson Holts Unincorporated Year City Summit Area Summit Township 1990 36 (11.3%) 168 \1.3%) 166 (4.6%) 1980 5 (20.0%) 147 (5.8%) 187 (5.4%) 1980-90 Change 22 31 (-8.7%) 21 (1.5%) (21) (-0.8%) efferson Township 1990 5,512 (15.6%) 566 (4.4%) 1980 4,406 (13.1 %) 349 (3.7%) 1980-90 Change 22 1,106 (2.5%) 217 (0.7%) Household Composition Total 370 (5.9%) 339 (5.6%) 31 (0.3%) 6,078 (12.6%) 4,755 (10.5%) 1,323 (2.1 %) Three very significant changes occurred during the 1980's. First, there was a substantial increase in non-family households, both nationally and throughout the Jefferson City area. A "non-family" 21 Source: Census of Population, 1980 and 1990; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 22 Change in the ratio of population 65 years and older to total population. 22 r household is a housing unit occupied by a single person or two or more unrelated persons living together. Of the 2,746 households added in both Summit and Jefferson Townships during the 1980's, almost half (1,267 or 46.1 percent) were non-family households (see Table 12). Year 1990 1980 1980-90 Change %Change Table 12 Trends in Household Composition (1980 -1990) Jefferson and Summit Townships 23 Household Type Family Households Married Couples Non-Married With Without Family Family Couples Other Children Children 13,858 6,495 11,519 2,339 5,657 5,862 12,379 5,228 10,636 1,743 5,623 5,013 1,479 1,267 883 596 34 849 11.9% 24.2% 8.3% 34.2% 0.6% 16.9% One Person Households 5,780 4,579 1,201 26.2% Family households also changed during the decade. Families without both husband and wife present increased more rapidly than did the family that included a married couple. Households without both husband and wife present accounted for 40.3 percent of the 1,479 family households added in both townships during the 1980's. The other significant change in family households relates to the presence of children in the . household. Consistent with the national trend, married couples without children outnumbered those with children for the first time in 1990. Each of the above changes contributed to the declining size of the average household in Jefferson City and its immediate environs. In conjunction with the growth in non-family households, growth in the number of senior citizens also resulted in an increase in one person households during the decade. In view of the above changes, the average number of persons per household living in the vicinity of Jefferson CitY dropped from 2.59 in 1980 to 2.51 in 1990. This decline was led by households in Jefferson City itself. From an already low 2.39 persons per household in 1980, average household size in the City dropped to 2.28 persons in 1990. By way of comparison, the national average household size, in 1990, was 2.63. Larger households in 1990 could still be found in 23 Source: Census of Population, 1980 and 1990; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 23 unincorporated areas-3.15 and 3.07 persons per household in unincorporated parts of Jefferson and Summit Townships, respectively. Household Income Trends: As reported by the Census, average household income in Jefferson City increased in both nominal and real terms. In current (nominal) dollars, the increase amounted to a 78 percent gain - $20,278 versus $36,093 in 1979 and 1989, respectively (see Table 13). Table 13 Trends in Nominal and Real Household Income (1979 -1989) Jefferson City, Missouri and Environs 24 Location Elsewhere In Jefferson Jefferson Summit Overall Year City Township Township Average Nominal Dollars 1989 $36,093 $37,682 $33,997 $36,208 1979 20,278 26,917 21,700 21,567 %Change 78.0% 40.0% 56.7% 67.9% Constant Dollars 1989 $28,717 $29,957 $27,028 $28,801 1979 25,814 34,265 27,623 27,455 %Change 11.2% (12.6%) (2.1%) 4.9% When measured in terms of dollars with equal purchasing power, the increase was a more modest 11.2 percent. Average household income in constant 1982 dollars rose from $25,814 in 1979 to $28,777 ten years later. In this regard, Jefferson City households benefitted to a greater extent than did households throughout the nation. The national average household income in 1989, expressed in 1982 dollars, was $26,969. Households living outside the City in Jefferson Township did not fare as well. On a constant dollar basis, average household incomes dropped 12.6 percent between 1979 and 1989. Whereas the average in 1979 was 33 percent higher than that of households residing in Jefferson City, by 1989 the average for households living outside the City was only 4.1 percent above the Citywide average. 24 Source: Census of Population, 1980 and 1990; and economist N. Bradley Susman. 24 In contrast, households living in Summit Township outside the City of Jefferson, including Holts Summit, recorded a more stable level of income. In this instance, the average household income (in constant dollars) declined only 2.2 percent between 1979 and 1989. At the same time, household income experienced gains that failed to keep pace with those in the City even though Cedar City households are included in Jefferson City in the 1990 Census. In 1979, Summit Township households (outside Jefferson City) enjoyed an average income (in constant dollars) that was 7 percent above the Citywide average. By 1989, Jefferson City households had average incomes which were 6.2 percent above those in Summit Township. Projections Introduction Projections have been developed for employment, population, households, income and retail sales in the Jefferson City area. These projections are keyed to the years 2000 and 2010. Given these future horizons, certain assumptions have been used to assist in preparing the projections. Underlying all the· projections is the assumption that global war, economic depression or natural catastrophe will not be part of the future. Other assumptions, relevant to one variable such as employment or population, rather than all variables, are made explicit in the text that follows. The objective of these projections is to provide an "order of magnitude" estimate of how much the planning area will likely grow. Requirements for future land development can be roughly computed along with the requirements for public infrastructure and services. Employment Prgjections Wage and salary jobs located in Cole County have shown vigorous growth. Between 1985 and 1990, the addition of 5,413 jobs represented an annual growth rate of 3.02 percent. Over a longer time span, from 1978 to·1990, the annual growth rate for wage and salary employment was still a respectable 2.14 percent. Although viewed as an area dominated by state government, this perception of the Jefferson City economy will be less true in the future than it is today. Government jobs in 1990 represented a slightly smaller share of total jobs in Cole County than was true in 1978-42.3 versus 42.8 percent, respectively. In Cole County, government jobs have increased rapidly since 1985. Between 1985 and 1990, the growth rate in the public sector of employment averaged 2.60 percent annually. Even over the 25 twelve year period, 1978 -1990, the comparable rate was 2.03 percent. Statewide, jobs in state government have been projected to grow much more slowly between now and the year 2000 than in the recent past. The Missouri Division of Employment Security has projected an annual growth rate of just 0.93 percent. Relative to statewide jobs in state government -exclusive of jobs in state hospitals and schools -Cole County's share has been reasonably stable at 35-36 percent of the total. Accepting Employment Security's projection for the year 2000 of 46,234 statewide jobs in state government, Cole County's 35-36 percent share would represent 16,180 to 16,645 jobs. In essence, this projection allows for no growth in government employment in Cole County since 1990 levels would also prevail in the year 2000. The prospect of zero growth in government jobs in Cole County during the 1990's is not supportable by recent trends; therefore, it is likely that some growth will occur in the future. This growth is likely to be less than the 0.93 percent annual rate projected statewide, however. At the same time, Cole County's future growth rate in government jobs is unlikely to fall below 0.5 percent annually. Turning to private sector employment, Cole County employers increased employment at a ~.22 percent rate between 1978 and 1990. As was true of government growth, the private sector grew at a more rapid annual rate (3.33 percent) between 1985 and 1990. The parallel between step-ups in the rate of government and private sector growth suggest some degree of functional linkage between the two. While it is beyond the scope of this analysis to estimate the multiplier effect of growth in state government, slower growth in government employment can be expected to restrain somewhat future gains in private sector employment. For that reason, the future growth rate in Cole County's private sector cannot be expected to exceed its long term rate of 2.22 percent annually. On the other hand, if growth in government employment falls to 0.5 percent annually in Cole County, the growth rate for private sector employment might drop to 1.5 percent annually. Given these differences in projected growth rates, average annual gains in total wage and salary employment in Cole County could range from about 450 to 715 during the 1990's and from 510 to 870 during the first decade of the next century (see Table 14). These ranges can be compared to actual annual gains which averaged 735 jobs between 1978 and 1990. The average of the projections in Table 14 equals average annual job gains of 583 during the 1990's and 690 thereafter. 26 Population Projections Cole County: Population projections for Cole County have been derived from two basic relationships. The first such relationship is between employment in Cole County and the County's resident labor force. The second is the relationship between resident labor force and total resident population. Between 1978 and 1990, the resident labor force in Cole County varied from 89 to 95 percent of total wage and salary empl(!yment. The higher percentages pertained to recessionary years, years when unemployment was relatively high and new job generation rather low. Assuming future economic conditions limit unemployment to 3. 6 -3. 8 percent of the resident labor force, this labor force should equal 91 percent of total wage and salary employment in the future. Table 14 Recent and Projected Wage and Salary Employment (1990 -2010) Cole County, Missouri 25 Year 1990 (Actual) 2000 2010 Low Projection: 26 Sector: Public 16,581 17,430 18,320 Private 22,632 26,265 30,480 Total 39,213 43,695 48,800 Moderate Projection: 27 Sector: Public 16,581 18,190 19,950 Private 22,632 28,190 35,110 Total 39,213 46,380 55,060 Unlike the relationship just discussed, the relationship of population to resident labor force exhibits a distinct downward trend. In 1978, there were 2.02 persons living in Cole County for every :zs Source: Missouri Division of Employment Security, and economist N. Bradley Susman. :z.s Based on public sector annual growth rate of 0.5 percent and private sector annual growth rate of 1.5 percent 'ZI Based on public sector annual growth rate of 0.93 percent and private sector annual growth rate of 2.22 percent. 27 person in the resident labor force. This ratio steadily declined throughout the 1980's. By 1990, it stood at only 1. 78 resident population to resident labor force. The rate of annual change in this ratio has been approximat~ly 1.0 percent. Projected in the . future on that basis, the ratio will decline to 1.61 in 2000 and 1.46 in 2010. The direction of change in this ratio assumes that the Jefferson City area is unlikely to become either a major retirement center or a mecca for large family households in the future. Applying these relationships, projections of resident labor force and population were computed (see Table 15). The projections of 68,000 residents in the year 2000 and 73,000 by 2010 conform closely to the Scenario "Z" (no net migration projection) developed by the State of Missouri's Office of Administration. Published in May of 1988, Scenario "Z" came closest to the actual census count of 1990 population in Cole County. This scenario envisions no dramatic increase in senior citizens in the future. Persons 65 years old and older represented 12.2 percent of the 1990 population. Scenario Z projects this percentage to rise only to 12.9 percent by the year 2010. It basically assumes that out-migration by seniors will be offset by in-migration of younger adults to fill jobs vacated by those retiring. Table IS Recent and Projected Resident Labor Force and Population (1990 -2010) Cole County, Missouri Year 1990 (Actual) 2000 2010 Low Projection: Labor Force 28 35,689 39,800 44,410 Population 29 63,579 64,100 64,800 Moderate Projection: Labor Force28 35,689 42,205 50,105 Population 29 63,579 68,000 73,200 S~te Population Projection 30 63,579 68,837 73,689 28 Based on 91 percent of projected total county labor force (see Table 14) rounded to nearest 100. 29 Based on ratio of population to resident labor force of 1.61 for the year 2000 and 1.46 for the year 2010. Projections rounded to nearest 100. 30 Source: Projections of the Population of Missouri Counties by Ages and Sex: 1985 to 2010, Missouri Office of Administration, May 1988. Scenario •z• (zero migration) shown in this table. 28 .I -.-,~ { , __ _ I I •. _s "")· !f ...J J .J . 1 Jefferson City Planning Area: For purposes of estimating future population for Jefferson City and its environs, recent trends in the ratio of Township to County populations were projected into the future. Holts Summit was excluded from these projections in order to more accurately reflect the potential population within the planning area of two miles from the Jefferson City limits. The ratios were then applied to the Cole County population projections (from Table 15) and the Callaway County population projections (based on scenario "Z" projections prepared by the State of Missouri). The low projection for the Jefferson City area reflects the steady decline in the ratio of population to resident labor force in Cole County (see Table 16). The moderate projection reflects the same decline in this ratio, but assumes a greater increase in Cole County employment growth over the projection horizon. Both the low and moderate projections assume that the recent trends in the ratios of township to county population will continue -a slight downward trend for Jefferson Township and a slight upward trend for Summit Township. The resulting projections indicate a population range of 52,800 to 55,800 for the Jefferson City planning area by the year 2000. By the year 2010, the population is estimated to be in the range of 53,600 to 59,900. Household Projections The approach taken to develop household projections involves establishing a relationship between households and the segment of the population most closely related to household formation. This population segment incudes persons between 25 and 64 years of age. In 1980, there were 729 households residing in Cole County for every 1,000 persons in that age range. By 1990, this ratio had declined to 688 households per 1,000 residents. The reason for the decline relates to differences in household formation rates between the populations living in Jefferson City and that residing elsewhere in Cole County. Household formation rates are lower outside the City. This is primarily due to the fact that far fewer persons 25 -64 years old who live outside the City live alone. For example, in 1990, only 3.2 percent of this population segment living outside the City were living alone. In contrast, 16.3 percent of City residents in that age range were single person households. 29 Table 18 Recent and Projected Household Income and Retail Sales (1990-2010) in Constant Dollars Cole County, Missouri 36 Year 1990 Item (Actual) 2000 Household Inc. ($000) $834,425 $1,146,075 Per Household ($) 36,174 46,305 Retail Sales ($000) 37 675,718 928,092 NOTE: Expressed in 1989 Dollars Table 19 ·. Recent and Projected Retail Sales (1990 -2010) in Constant Dollars Cole County and Jefferson City, Missouri 36 Year 1990 Location (Actual) 2000 Cole County $675,718 $928,092 Jefferson City 655,446 890,968 City Share of County Total 97.0% 96.0% NOTE: Expressed in 1989 Dollars 3a Source: Economist N. Bradley Susman. 2010 $1,530,775 59,225 1,239,620 2010 $1,239,620 1,177,639 95.0% 31 Based on earlier findings that Cole County households spend 39 -40 percent of income on retail goods and services; and that retail sales in Cole County are roughly twice as great as resident expenditures for retail goods and services. 32 ~I Conclusions Over the past decade, Jefferson City has experienced considerable growth in employment, aggregate household income and retail sales. This positive economic growth has contributed to physical growth, both within the City and adjacent unincorporated area. The City has continued its dominance of retail trade in the region. The fact that retail sales within the City are approximately double that of the retail spending by its resident population underscores the importance of non-resident sales. Non-resident shoppers contribute about half of the City's sales tax revenue. There has been a considerable amount of development (principally residential) occurring in adjacent unincorporated territory. This raises two key issues pertaining to the City -municipal finances and development control. Non-residents who work in the City contribute to road and infrastructure requirements and also benefit from basic municipal services, i.e., police and fire protection. On the other side of the coin, these same non-resident workers (and shoppers) are important to business enterprises who depend on this non-resident labor pool and source of consumer spending income. These establishments,· including state government, are the beneficiaries of the commuters. Notwithstanding the contribution of sales tax paid by non-residents, cost sharing in the provision of municipal services could be made up by funds from benefitted employers -perhaps by imposing an employee "head tax" or some other equitable charge. Development control issues relate to development standards and provision of street networks, infrastructure support systems (i.e., water and sewer), and public services. Neither Cole or Callaway County have adopted zoning regulations. While there is informal cooperation between the City and Cole County regarding development, there is no adequate legal means to control land use location and intensities in unincorporated portions of the planning area. Also, while Cole County has subdivision regulations, Callaway County lacks such development standards which can lead to inferior streets and other elements of infrastructure. Over the long term, deterioration adversely affects the quality of development and leads to higher maintenance costs. If such conditions are prevalent when developed areas are annexed to the City, then these excessive costs become a burden on the municipal budget. Of course, annexing territory prior to development helps to avoid these problems. However, Missouri statutes inherently limit the ability to successfully annex undeveloped territory. Another means to control external development has been provided by Missouri legislation passed and signed by the Governor in 1992. It enables certain cities, including Jefferson City, .to enact legislation governing zoning, planning, subdivisions and building within unincorporated areas extending up to two miles from the City's corporate limits. However, this extraterritorial jurisdiction is subject to 33 approval by a majority of the county commission. As the planning program for Jefferson City ~ proceeds, this new development control option should be further explored along with examining annexation options. In terms of planning for physical·growth of the Jefferson City area, it can be expected that a slow down in the recent rate of growth will occur in the future. The projections contained in this Chapter are based on certain sets of assumptions which result in a realistic range of future outcomes in terms of the area's economy and population. The low projections are possible, but would be unlikely. The Comprehensive Plan should accommodate the moderate projections with some excess growth capacity built in to ensure development flexibility and to have land use policy in place to deal with unanticipated growth. The extent of future annexation will affect how much of the future development will actually be incorporated within the City limits. Because of the dynamics of the City's municipal boundaries, it is important to plan for development regardless of the location of the current City limits. 34 " ~· CHAPTER2 LAND USE Existine Land Use . The existing land use pattern, to a large extent, sets the stage for planning future development. In order for the Comprehensive Plan to be effective, careful consideration should be given to the existing use of land as well as to the suitability of undeveloped property for particular uses. Beginning in the summer of 1992, a land use survey was initiated for the area within the City of Jefferson and most of the area within two miles of the City. This survey was completed in March, 1993. For purposes of this analysis, "1992" is the reference year for the land use survey. The results of this survey are presented quantitatively in Table 20 and graphically on Plate 1. In order to measure development trends, comparisons of 1992 and 1977land use data were made. Table 21 presents the land use inventory data for 1992 and 1977. Also, this table displays the average annual absorption (in terms of acres of land) for most of the land use categories. Because of differences in land use inventory techniques between the 1992 and 1977 surveys, valid comparisons could not be made for every land use category. For instance, a comparison of public/semi-public land was not made. This was because the 1977 land use survey accounted for all land owned by public/semi-public entities, regardless of whether or not the land was developed. The 1992 land use survey counted only the develqped portion of public/semi-public land. If a comparison was made between the two years, it would imply that there was a loss of hundreds of acres of public/semi-public land between 1977 and 1992. Of course, this was not the case. The rationale for the 1992 land use survey methodology was to provide a more realistic measure of the City's actual physical development. In 1992, the total incorporated area of Jefferson City amounted to nearly 17,780 acres, of which approximately 9,300 acres (52 percent) were developed. In 1977, the City encompassed approximately 15,260 acres, of which 6,400 acres (42 percent) were developed. The number of developed acres in 1977 was actually less due to overcounting of public/semi-public land uses. Excluding public/semi-public and transportation, communications, and utilities (TCU) land uses, Jefferson City's total developed area increased by nearly 2,400 acres (or 46 percent) in 15 years (adjusted to exclude land that was developed in 1977 and subsequently annexed). This equates to 159 acres of land absorbed by new development each year within the 1992 City limits, not counting the land use categories previously noted. 35 Table 20 Land Use, 1992 Jefferson City Planning Area 38 Jeft'erson City Unincorporated Area Percent or Percent or Percent or Developed Percent or Developed Land Use Category Acres Total Area Area Acres Total Area Area Total Acres Single Family Residential 3,449 19.4 .37.1 2,065 4.8 36.5 5,514 ifwo Family Residential 163 0.9 1.8 12 0.0 0.2 175 Multi-Family Residential 293 1.6 3.1 62 0.1 1.1 3SS Mobile Home Residential 24 0.1 0.3 122 0.3 2.2 146 Subtotal 3,929 22.1 42.2 2,260 5.2 40.0 6,189 Commercial 757 4.3 8.1 75 0.2 1.3 832 Industrial 612 3.4 6.6 144 0.3 2.5 156 Public/Semi-Public 515 3.2 6.2 32 0.1 0.6 608 Public/Semi-Public (Government) 328 1.8 3.5 270 0.6 4.8 591 Subtotal 903 5.1 9.7 302 0.7 5.3 1,205 Parks & Recreation 542 3.1 5.8 860 2.0 15.2 1,402 Transportation/Communications/Utilities 438 2.5 4.7 194 0.4 3.4 632 Street & Highway Right of Ways 2,127 12.0 22.9 1,820 4.2 32.2 3,947 jrotal Developed Area 9,307 51.3 100.0 5,655 13.1 100.0 14,962 Undeveloped/ Agricultural/Water 8,472 47.7 37,429 86.9 45,901 TOTAL AREA 17,779 100.0 43,084 100.0 60,863 38 Based on land use survey initiated in June, 1992 and completed in March, 1993 J 1-_, Table 21 Annualized Land Absorption By Land Use Type (1977 -1992) Jefferson City Planning Area Jefferson City Unincorporated Area Avg. Avg. Annual Annual Absorp. Absorp. Land Use Category 1977 Acres 1992 Acres 39 (Acres) 1977 Acres 40 1992 Acres (Acres) Single Family Residential 2,116 3,277 77 722 2,065 90 Two Family Residential 41 93 163 5 2 12 1 Multi-Family Residential 41 168 293 8 47 62 I Mobile Home Residential 42 ~ubtotal 2,377 3,733 90 771 2,139 91 Commercial 43 44 391 750 24 27 75 3 Industrial 45 334 539 14 46 144 7 Public/Semi-Public 46 Public/Semi-Public (Gov'nt) 46 Parks & Recreation 47 464 542 5 752 860 7 Transportation/Communications/Utilities 48 Street & Highway Right of Ways 1,627 2,021 26 1,350 1,820 31 Total Developed Area 49 5,193 7,584 159 2,946 5,038 139 See footnotes on the following page 37 Total Avg. Annual Absorp. (Acres) 167 5 9 182 27 20 12 58 299 FOOTNOTES FOR TABLE 21, ANNUALIZED LAND ABSORPTION BY LAND USE TYPE: 39 Except as noted herein, 1992 land use acreage is reduced by a factor of S% to account for development that existed in 1977 and was subsequently annexed into the City. 40 Except as noted herein, 1977 land use acreage is reduced by a factor of S% to account for development that existed in 1977 and was subsequently annexed into the City. 41 1992 acreage in City and 1977 acreage in unincorporated area is not reduced because no two family or multi-family residential development, which existed in 1977, was annexed. ,· 42 Not included in this analysis because land occupied by mobile homes in 1977 was categorized as "commercial" land use in the 1977 land use survey. 43 1992 commercial acreage in the City is reduced by 7 acres to account for commercially-developed land in Cedar City, which existed in 1977. 44 1977 commercial acreage in the unincorporated area is reduced by a factor of 80% to exclude mobile home land uses which were categorized as commercial in the 1977 land use survey. 45 1992 industrial acreage in the City is reduced by 73 acres to account for the Modine manufacturing facility (25 acres), the ABB plant (46 acres), and 2 acres of industrial land use in Cedar City, which existed in 1977 and was subsequendy annexed into the City. 1977 industrial acreage in the unincorporated area is nd~bytheame~owl · 46 Not included in this analysis because the method of quantifying public/semi-public land uses in the 1977 ~ land use survey accounted for all land owned by public/semi-public entities, regardless of whether or not the land was developed. The 1992 land use survey counted only developed public/semi-public land. 47 1977 parks and recreation acreage in the City is increased by 140 acres to account for the Country Club golf course, which was categorized as public/semi-public in the 1977 land use survey. The 1977 parks and recreation acreage in the unincorporated area is estimated to be approximately 752 acres, which includes Binder Park and all of the Cowty Fairgrounds and Park. 48 Not included in this analysis because the 1977 land use survey quantified railroads only. Other transportation, communications, and utility uses existing in 1977 were categorized as public/semi-public in the 1977 land use survey. 49 Excludes mobile home, public/semi-public, and transportation/communication/utility land uses. 38 ~ While the incorporated portion of the Jefferson City planning area experienced considerable growth in the 15 year period, so did the unincorporated portion. Between 1977 and 1992, the amount of land absorbed by new development was nearly 2,100 acres, a 71 percent increase. Again, this excludes public/semi-public and TCU land uses. Land absorption for the unincorporated area averaged 139 acres per year, excluding the land use categories previously noted. However, the It density It of development was somewhat lower in the unincorporated area than the development in Jefferson City. A considerable amount of the residential development in the unincorporated area was devoted to "large lot" subdivisions (i.e., lots greater than 2 acres). Hence, the population density associated with new development, on average, was less in the unincorporated area than in the City in 1992. The Census data confirms this, whereby between 1980 and 1990 the number of households increased by only 29 percent in the unincorporated portions of the planning area. In the 15 year period between 1977 and 1992 the acreage of residential development increased by nearly 180 percent within the unincorporated area. The above narrative described the overall development trends within the Jefferson City planning area. The following text provides a closer look at each land use category. Residential The largest portion of developed land within the City, and unincorporated area as well, is devoted to residential uses (nearly 6,200 acres for the total planning area). In the City, 3,929 acres (42 percent) of the developed area is residential. The majority of residential acreage in the City (about 3,450 acres or 88 percent) is in the single-family category (typically one dwelling on a lot or parcel). These proportions are similar in the unincorporated portion of the planning area. Over 40 percent {2,260 acres) of the developed land is residential, and, of this amount, 2,065 acres (91 percent) is single-family. Residential uses also accounted for the largest portion of new growth between 1977 and 1992 (see Table 21). In Jefferson City, 57 percent of the average annual land absorption was associated with residential development (mostly single-family). The proportion of residential to total growth in unincorporated territory was even greater; at 65 percent. This larger percentage of residential growth in the unincorporated area is due mostly to the large-lot single-family developments mentioned previously. The other residential land use categories are two family, multi-family, and mobile homes. These residential uses occupy substantially fewer acres than the single-family uses, but the densities ~ are higher (i.e., as expressed in dwelling units per acre). The majority of multi-family acreage, in 41 both the City and unincorporated area, is associated with apartment complexes or "planned unit ~ developments." Similarly, most of the mobile home acreage is in mobile home parks, though some mobile home groupings in the unincorporated area fall far short of contemporary mobile home development standards. Aside from the apartment complexes and planned unit developments, the other two family and multi-family land uses are scattered throughout the older portions of the City. This appears to be, at least in part, a reflection of zoning practices that were intended to implement past planning proposals to eventually convert certain areas to higher density residential. In reality, the full transition from say, single family to multi-family, never took place. The same is true when existing residential areas are "pre-zoned" as commercial. These situations make it particularly difficult to plan for these older neighborhoods. What should the planning policy be? Continue the transition; halt or reverse the transition; hold until larger, unified redevelopment proposals can be implemented; or something else? Typically, single family dwellings still dominate these neighborhoods, but unfortunately, the single family home is the most sensitive of all types of land use. In terms of geographic distribution, residential growth has predominantly occurred in western portions of the planning area. Much of this western growth has occurred outside the City limits in single family subdivisions. This growth trend has particular significance in terms of transportation and utilities. The existing major street system serving this area is an extension of the "hub and spoke" network emanating from the central portion of Jefferson City. The further west one gets, it becomes increasingly difficult to travel north/south due to lack of sufficient north/south collector and arterial streets. If growth continues, then the number of vehicle trips will increase as well. The dispersion of this development, combined with severe topographic constraints, will make transportation network improvements difficult and expensive. The westward expansion will impact public utilities as well, particularly sanitary sewer (see Chapter 3, "Utilities"). The Jefferson City Sanitary Sewer District expands far beyond the western City limits and the planning area boundary~ The provision of sanitary sewers to the west (and other portions of the planning area) can be used as a growth management tool. This can be an intentional policy or it may become a necessity, if the capacity of interceptors and pump stat~ons cannot keep pace with growth. Keep in mind that increased development outside the City (particularly on the Cole County side) impacts the sewage collection system inside the City as well, since all sanitary sewerage is eventually pumped across the Missouri River to the City's wastewater treatment plant. 42 In summary, residential land use constitutes one of the more significant planning issues because of its impact on the urban infrastructure (i.e., streets, utilities, etc.) and on public services (i.e., police protection, schools, etc.). The proportions of residential to total development is not unusual for the real estate market dynamics of a "freestanding" urban area such as the Jefferson City area. However, its distribution is inefficient from a land use management viewpoint. In planning for the future, residential land uses will constitute the largest quantity of land use, in terms of acreage. Commercial Commercial development takes up just over 830 acres within the planning area, three-quarters of which is located within Jefferson City. Jefferson City's majority share of commercial land uses is consistent with the fact that the City is the retail center of the region (see Chapter 1). Table 21 shows that, within Jefferson City, commercial acreage grew by an average of 24 acres per year between 1977 and 1992. This rate of growth was significantly larger than in the unincorporated area during the same period. While the population increase in the unincorporated area has been greater than within the City, the population "density" is higher in the City. Thus, commercial development tends to locate in trade areas containing higher population density with its corresponding "income density." The largest concentration of commercial development is downtown, Missouri Boulevard, Highway 54 and the Capital Mall area. An emerging commercial node is located at Eastland Drive and Highway 50/63. Other commercial uses are scattered throughout the City, typically along arterial or major collecto~ streets. Outside Jefferson City, the largest concentration of commercial uses is along Business 50 West. This commercial corridor lacks traffic access control (i.e., curbing and curb cuts), and contains several business properties that are vacant and dilapidated. It appears that the extension of the Highway 50 freeway to the west has negatively impacted the commercial viability of this corridor. Commercial land uses typically generate more traffic than other land uses. Also, commercial enterprises (particularly retail) are drawn to major traffic arteries in order to attract the attention of the traveling public. This market tendency often leads to land use policies that essentially support the idea that if the property fronts onto a major arterial street, then it should be commercial. However, the end result is often excessive curb cuts, increased traffic volumes, and more significantly, excessive traffic turning movements. The Missouri Boulevard corridor reflects this type of development policy. Hundreds of curb cuts and traffic turning movements present many potential traffic hazards. Reducing the number of 43 curb cuts, turning movement controls (i.e., curbed center islands), and synchronized signalization ~ would greatly reduce the land use/traffic conflicts. However, retrofitting this existing situation would be costly and require the cooperation of property owners, the City and the State Highway Department. Requiring or encouraging cross-access agreements between adjacent parcels and future proposed development/redevelopment will help reduce the number of necessary access points. For the most part, Missouri Boulevard reflects older development techniques. However, there are several examples of good access control to/from commercial developments in the City. This includes the recently developed Wal-Mart supercenter located at the intersection of Missouri and Stadium Boulevards. Access is controlled via traffic signals on both Missouri Boulevard and Stadium Boulevard. ~ile it would have been preferable for the out-parcels to have internal access only, it was impractical because of topographic conditions. If the site was flatter, this could have been accomplished. The Capital Mall area and the Eastland Drive/Highway So-63 commercial development institute better site development designs as well. Access to many of the commercial establishments is via internal drives or secondary streets. These developments have adequate site size and depth which enabled better control of access, internal circulation, and provision of adequate off-street parking. In summary, existing "strip II commercial development will continue to present traffic hazards, though there are opportunities to mitigate some of the problems. Future commercial development should be encouraged to be designed in a unified scheme to limit access points with internally accessed out-parcels. In-fill or redevelopment of smaller commercial parcels along arterial streets should be encouraged to negotiate cross-access agreements with adjacent property owners whenever possible. Additionally, the City may want to consider instituting "Motor Vehicle Oriented Business" regulations in its zoning code. This increasingly popular regulatory technique requires minimum separation of certain commercial uses that typically generate a large number of traffic turning movements (i.e., fast food restaurants, gas stations, and convenience stores). Industrial Over 610 acres of industrial land use exist within Jefferson City (an increase of over 200 acres in fifteen years). As with commercial development, Jefferson City is the industrial center of the region. This can be attributed to the availability of utilities, the transportation network, and the proximity of the labor force. Only 144 acres of industrially developed land exists in the unincorporat- ed area, of which approximately 30 acres are associated with a quarry located off of West Edgewood Drive. 44 Some of the notable industrial development that has occurred since the late 1970's include construction of a new Chesebrough Ponds facility at South Country Club Drive and Scruggs Station Road; the Maytag facility on Fairgrounds Road; the Johnson Controls facility located on West Main Street; and the new "spec" warehouse facility developed by the Jefferson City Industrial Development Authority. Other than the area around South Country Club Drive and Fairgrounds Road, there are no "industrial park" settings in the Jefferson City area. However, the County is in the process of developing an industrial park, known as Algoa Industrial Park, east of the City and the Moreau River on Highway 50/63. One of the most significant obstacles to developing an industrial park in the City is severe topography on the Cole County side of the Missouri River. On the Callaway County side of the river, there is plenty of level ground that is serviceable with sanitary sewer and water. However, this area is within the 100-year floodplain. The lOQ-year floodplain limitation can be overcome, as evidenced by the development of the City's largest industrial facility, ABB Power T&D Company, which manufactures underground distribution transformers. When built, this facility was elevated above the 100-year frequency flood elevation, but proved to be insufficient during the flood of 1993. In conjunction with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the City is examining the cost/benefit of constructing a levee to protect against a 100-year frequency flood. One alternative includes a levee which would protect a portion of north Jefferson City area as well. Industrial development is a "chicken and egg" dilemma. If a community does not have suitable sites for industrial prospects, then the chances of being selected for a new facility decrease. On the other hand, can a community afford the speculative investment of developing "industrial ready" sites? For reasons described above, Jefferson City will continue to have a greater challenge than many other communities its size to fulfill its industrial development objectives, particularly for larger developments. Public and Semi-Public Public and semi-public land uses include properties developed for schools, churches, cemeteries, public offices, hospitals, etc. They are uses that are often allowed in residential districts, but are subject to "conditional use" approval procedures. As far as the proportion of public and semi-public land uses in a typical city are concerned, Jefferson City is unique. Over one-third of the 900 public and semi-public land use acreage is associated with State facilities. While some of the previous land use surveys graphically distinguished State facilities separate f:' from other public and semi-public uses, the quantitative data did not. Also, previous land use surveys 45 accounted for all land owned by public or semi-public entities, regardless of whether or not the land ~ was developed. The 1992 land use survey counted only developed public and semi-public land, which provides a more realistic indicator of urbanization. For these reasons, a comparison to 1977 could not be made. It is important to land use analysis/planning to segregate State facilities because they are often significantly different in character than other public uses. Many of the State facilities resemble commercial office uses. In reality, the State leases a considerable amount of office space. These facilities employ many individuals and generate vehicle trips similar to private office buildings. Hence, it is important that most, if not all, State office functions be located in commercial centers with good access. For the most part, State office facilities have been located in this manner. Also, the boom in State office construction over the past decade has been somewhat disbursed outside of downtown into other commercial areas of Jefferson City. This has served to disburse their traffic generation impact, thus mitigating additional traffic congestion and parking requirements in the downtown area. The State government is exempt from local codes and regulations. Because of the State's sovereignty and its influence on the Jefferson City economy, the potential exists for conflict between the State and local planning policy. Fortunately the current development pattern of State facilities reflects a cooperative spirit between the City and the State. It will be imperative that communication and cooperation continues, in order to maintain the integrity of the updated Comprehensive Plan for Jefferson City. In terms of future development demands on the part of the State, it is anticipated that it will slow considerably, compared to the last decade. The research conducted in preparing Chapter 1 revealed a relatively small growth rate in State government. However, there is one significant development proposal contemplated by the State. This proposal involves consolidating Department of Revenue operations into a new facility. If this proposal advances further, the Comprehensive Plan Update needs to take this into account. Another significant public land use in Jefferson City is Lincoln University. Located in the central part of the City, it is "land locked" on three sides by other development. The University is compact and intensely developed. Expansion opportunities exist to the south on property owned by the University. Also, the University owns considerable acreage further south, at the end of Green Meadow Drive. A portion of this property is currently being ~ed as a research facility. This site has poor access, requiring travel through a low density single family neighborhood to get to it. Any intensive development of this property would need alternative access, perhaps from State Route B. 46 (' Parks and Recreation Within the corporate limits of Jefferson City, there are approximately 540 acres of park land, including public and private golf courses. In the unincorporated portion of the planning area, there is 860 acres of park land. Most of this land is associated with Binder Park (644 acres), and Joseph Miller Park (66 acres), which are owned by Jefferson City, except for Binder Lake. The lake is under the control of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources. Outdoor recreation is the only land use, other than agriculture, that is readily suitable to floodplain environments. While most of the park acreage is outside the floodplain, the City has done a commendable job in redeveloping a portion of the Ohio Street/Kansas Street area into park land (Washington Park). Also, park land can co-exist with other land use activities, such as storm retention facilities and utility rights-of-way. McKay Park is a good example of the synergy of park land and a storm water retention facility. Another outdoor recreation activity that has recently become available to the Jefferson City area is the KA TY Trail, located on abandoned railroad right-of-way north of the Missouri River. The only disadvantage of this trail is that most City residents must drive to it. In 1991, the City prepared a "Greenway System" plan which proposes a network of pedestrian/bicycle trails throughout the City. Such systems have proved to be a major outdoor recreation amenity in other cities such as Eugene, Oregon and Denver, Colorado. Specific details on the supply and demand for parks and open space are addressed in Chapter 5, "Recreation Facilities." Elements of the Greenway System Plan, the Deborah Cooper Riverfront Plan, and the findings contained in Chapter S will be considered for inclusion in the Comprehensive Plan Update. Other Land Uses The remainder of the City is either undeveloped or occupied by streets, railroad lines, highways, the airport, and other various utility/communication facilities (i.e., detention basins, electrical substations, water storage tanks, communication towers, etc.). The amount of undeveloped land remaining within the corporate limits amounts to nearly 8,500 acres. The following narrative examines how this vacant land is currently zoned and thus, what land development options are currently allowable within the corporate limits. 47 Undeveloped Land by Current City Zoning and Estimated Future Land Use Reouirements Table 22 provides a quantitative breakdown of vacant land by its assigned zoning classification in 1991. Plate 2 displays the larger portions of contiguous undeveloped land by its corresponding zoning district classification. Not all of the 8,472 acres of undeveloped land in Jefferson City is included in Table 22. The figures have been adjusted to account for the following assump- tions/conditions: 1. Excludes common ground typically associated with residential developments and which is usually held in perpetuity for common ground or "open space." 2. In the Cole County portion of the City, all 100-year floodplain areas are excluded. In the Callaway County portion of the City, two-thirds of the 1 00-year floodplain is excluded. 3. Individual lots, less than one-half acre in size, are not included. 4. Acreage in public or semi-public ownership, State ownership, country club ownership, and known quarry reserves are excluded. 5. After excluding the above acreage, the remainder is reduced by one-third to account for land which may present other limitations to development (i.e., severe topography or high cost to service with public utilities), or land owners unwilling to sell or develop their property within the planning horizon of twenty years·. Based on the above assumptions and excluding "RU" and "RC" acreage, there are approximately 3,420 acres of "developable" land within Jefferson City. The vast majority of this land is on the Cole County side of the Missouri River. Table 23 provides an estimate of future land use requirements. It is based on the relationship between the amount of developed land (as recorded in 1992) and the 1990 population within the planning area. In order to estimate future land use requirements, the ratios between the various existing land use categories and population were computed. These ratios were then applied to future population estimates (from Chapter 1). The end results are "order of magnitude" estimates of future acreage required for the various land uses. These figures are not intended to be absolute, but rather provide a starting point to plan for future growth. 48 .r' • J Table 22 Undeveloped Land by Current City Zoning Jefferson City, Missouri 50 Adjusted Acres of Undeveloped Land in Jefferson City 51 Cole Callaway Zoning District County County Total RU Rural 0 651 651 RC Conservation 65 139 204 RS-1 Single Family (15,000 SF lots) 633 0 633 RS-2 Single Family (10,000 SF lots) 1,216 0 1,216 RS-3 Single Family ( 8,000 SF lots) 232 0 232 RS-4 Single Family ( 6,000 SF lots) 28 11 39 Subtotal Single Family Residential 2,109 11 2,120 RD Two Family (3,000 SF/dwelling) 40 0 40 RA-1 Multi-Family (2,500 SF/dwelling) 206 0 206 RA-2 Multi-Family (1,500 SF/dwelling) 167 0 167 Subtotal Residential 2,522 11 2,533 C-0 Office 8 0 8 C-1 Neighborhood 37 0 37 C-2 General 145 6 151 C-3 Central 0 7 7 C-4 Planned 78 0 78 Subtotal Commercial 268 13 281 M-1 Light 120 105 225 M-2 Heavy 67 0 67 M-3 Planned 66 0 66 Subtotal Industrial 253 105 358 PUD 247 0 247 TOTAL RS-1 THROUGH PUD 3,290 129 3,419 so Based on a comparison of the City Zoning Atlas, dated 6/24/91, to the 1992 land use swvey. 51 Except for "RC" and "RU" acreage, figures do not include all undeveloped land (see narrative). 51 Table23 &timated Future Land Use Requirements Jefferson City Planning Area Future Acres Rqd. Short Tenn 52 1992 AcresPerlOO Total Land Use CateKory Acreaae 54 Persons 55 Acreaae Single Family Residential 5,514 10.60 5,917 irwo Family Residential 175 0.34 188 Multi-Family Residential 355 0.68 381 Mobile Home Residential 146 0.28 157 'subtotal 6,190 11.90 6,643 Commercial 832 1.60 893 Industrial 756 1.45 811 Public/Semi-Public 608 1.17 652 Public/Semi-Public (Gov'nt) 597 1.15 641 Subtotal 1,205 2.32 1,293 Parks & Recreation 1,402 2.70 1,505 Transportation/Communications/Utilities 632 1.22 678 Street & Highway Right of Ways 3,947 7.59 4,236 Total Developed Area 14,964 28.78 16,059 52 Based on moderate population projection of 55,800 for the year 2000 (see Table 16). 53 Based on moderate population projection of 59,900 for the year 2010 (see irable 16). 54 Total acres for the Jefferson City Planning Area, including unincorporated area. To Be Absorbed 403 13 26 11 453 61 55 44 44 88 103 46 289 1,095 Future Acres Rqd. Long Tenn 53 Total To Be Acreage Absorbed 6,352 838 202 27 409 54 168 22 7,131 941 958 126 871 115 700 92 688 91 1,388 183 1,615 213 728 96 4,547 600 17,2.39 2,275 ss Based on 1990 population ofJetierson City, Jefferson Twp., Summit Twp. (excluding Holts Summit). 52 '.I Based on these ratios, it is estimated that the developed area of the total planning area could increase from nearly 15,000 acres in 1992 to approximately 16,000 acres by the year 2000. By the year 2010, the total developed area could increase by an additional 1,180 acres. Nearly 37 percent of this new development will likely be lower-density single family residential. The following narrative examines the amount of developable land by its current zoning category and the estimate of future acreage requirements for different land use types. Residential Districts Of the estimated developable land within the City, over 2,500 acres (74 percent) is zoned residential. The majority of this acreage is zoned "RS-1" or "RS-2"; the lower density single family districts. Only 11 percent (271 acres) of the single family zoned acreage is "RS-3" or "RS-4" zoned land. Assuming there is demand for more affordable single family subdivisions, there may be insufficient "RS-4" zoned land, which accounts for only 39 acres. "RS-4" zoning generally would allow smaller homes·on small lots (6,000 square feet), thus enabling the cost of land and infrastructure development to be allocated to more units. If the rate of single family development within the City over the past 15 years were to continue, the estimated available acreage would be absorbed in just under 28 years (2, 120 acresn7 acres per year). If all future single family development within the planning area were to take place inside the City limits, the available acreage that is zoned single family would be absorbed in about 13 years (using the rate of growth over the past 15 years for the total planning area-167 acres per year). As explained in Chapter 1, the rate of growth in the economy and population is not expected to be as high as the last decade. With a tempered future growth rate, the depletion of land zoned single family would take longer than indicated above. Based on the estimates contained in Table 23, it is apparent that there is considerably more land zoned single family within the City than necessary to meet the projected growth demand for the entire planning area. This assumes similar proportions of single family residential densities that existed in 1992. However, it is likely that in the future, there will be a disproportionate share of low-density single family residential development. Hence, over the long term (by the year 2010), there will likely be more than 838 acres developed into single family uses, as calculated in Table 23. Available "RD" zoned land within the City amounts to 40 acres. This acreage would be absorbed in only 8 years if the past rate of two family residential development were to continue in the r' future. However, it would take nearly 27 years to absorb this land using the more moderate 53 projections mentioned above. This assumes that all future two family residential development in the planning area would take place inside the City. There is an estimated 373 acres of multi-family zoned ("RA-1" and "RA-2 '') land potentially available for development. However, practically all of this available land zoned multi-family is located in the remote reaches of the Wears Creek watershed (south of Highway 50 and east of South Country Club Drive/Fairgrounds Road). This land was part of annexation that took place in 1985. Currently, this area of the City is inaccessible, though the proposed extensions of Wildwood Drive to the south and Edgewood Drive to the west would provide access. The amount of multi-~amily zoned land far exceeds the estimate future requirements for this land use. This is true even if one assumes that the growth rate, during the last 15 years, continues. It would take over 41 years to absorb this available land under this scenario. The updated Comprehensive Plan and the City's zoning code should take a more realistic view of future multi-family development requirements. The place to·start is to consider alternative future land uses for the area of the Wears Creek watershed mentioned above. Commercial Districts It is estimated that there are nearly 280 acres potentially available for commercial development, half of which is zoned "C-2." It would appear that this amount of commercially-zoned land is sufficient to satisfy future development demand, at least for the next ten years .. Based on the commercial land absorption rate over the past 15 years within the City, it would take about 11 years to develop the estimated 280 acres available. However, given the more moderate estimates contained in Table 23, only 126 acres would be needed for commercial development by the year 2010 for the entire planning area. In aggregate, there is plenty of commercially-zoned land. However, much of the available commercial land is fraught with development constraints and/or less than desirable locations. Notwithstanding smaller sites that have good commercial potential, many of the larger commercial tracts have various limitations. The following briefly describes the larger contiguous (10 acres or more) commercially zoned acreage that is potentially available for development. "C-1 n Acreage: There is only one large area of contiguous vacant property zoned "C-1 ". Approximately 12 acres of "C-1" zoned property is located off of Missouri Boulevard (Highway 50 outer road), between Learfield Communications Corporation and the new State offices at the southwest comer of Missouri Boulevard and Howerton Court. The largest 54 I . ' .. j portion of this tract is accessible from Howerton Court. Given the nature of development on each side of the site, it would appear that its greatest potential is office use. Topography will be a constraint to any commercial development on this site. "C-2 "Acreage: There are four areas in the City with vacant contiguous properties zoned "C- 2." The largest tract is about 27 acres in size and is located on Missouri Boulevard (Highway 50 outer road) on the east side of Wildwood Drive. Not all of this property is readily usable since it drops off into a ravine that is a tributary to Wears Creek. This site has good visibility from Highway 50. Based on recent development in the vicinity, it would appear that this site would be more desirable for office development. On the west side of Wildwood Drive is a tract nearly 19 acres in size. A portion of this site was part of a quarry that is no longer active. This site has similar potential as the site across Wildwood Drive. A little further to the east on Missouri Boulevard are approximately 20 contiguous acres of land zoned "C-2". This includes currently undeveloped land owned by the new Toyota/Honda dealership. About 12 acres are in a single tract adjacent to the· dealership on the west side. While this site has good visibility and access, much of it will be difficult to develop because of topographic constraints. The properties fronting the south side of Missouri Boulevard between West Stadium Boulevard and Heisinger Road are fully developed. However, behind these properties are nearly 26 contiguous acres of "C-2" zoned land. This acreage does not have visibility from Missouri Boulevard, which is a limiting factor in its development potential. However, there is frontage onto West Stadium Boulevard. The new Wal-Mart Supercenter is located on the west side of Stadium Boulevard, which may improve the desirability of this "C-2" site. On the north side of St. Mary's Boulevard, between its intersection with Missouri Boulevard and Heisinger Road, are approximately 18 contiguous acres of "C-2" zoned property. While this land has visibility from Highway 50, it has severe topographic constraints and is not easily accessible. Any commercial potential would likely be non-retail. The remaining larger area of "C-2" zoned land is located off of Christy Drive, south of Ellis Drive. There is only about 200 feet of frontage. Most of the 19 acres is behind the bowling alley and the factory outlet store on either side. Visibility and topographic constraints limit the development potential of this site. 55 "C-4" Acreage: There are three larger contiguous properties that are currently undeveloped and zoned "C-4" Planned Commercial. The largest tract is about 25 acres, located off American A venue, east of Wildwood Drive. The American Legion has a post located on American Avenue. Also, two other small office buildings have been recently built on properties fronting American Avenue. This site is planned for office type development. Though this site does not offer high visibility, it provides an attractive setting for future office development. The two other larger "C-4" zoned tracts are located on East McCarty Street, east of Eastland Drive. On the south side of East McCarty Street is nearly 16 contiguous acres of "C-4" zoned land. However, seven acres are in the floodplain, netting only about nine acres of usable ground. In this case, the floodplain could -serve as a buffer between future development on this site and the single family neighborhood to the south. The other "C-4" site is about nine acres and is located across East McCarty Street. It is comprised of two tracts, one of which is partially occupied by Midwest Block and Brick, an industrial type land use. The other tract is penetrated by three single family dwellings fronting Landwehr Lane. The elevation of this site rises significantly from East McCarty Street toward Old St. Louis Road, making it difficult to utilize the entire site for commercial uses. Also, the single family uses fronting Landwehr Lane may present incompatible land uses depending on the type of commercial development. The type of commercial development recently built on Boggs Creek Road to the east appears to be unobtrusive and relatively compatible with the nearby residential areas. Development of the above mentioned properties into these types of commercial uses would have the least amount of incompatibility, if any. In summary, there are opportunities for commercial development in Jefferson City. However, there are not as many opportunities as the available commercially-zoned acreage would suggest. Topographic constraints, accessibility problems, and the lack of larger "prime" acreage significantly limits commercial development potential. It will be prudent for the Comprehensive Plan Update to identify some new commercial areas that will be compatible with surrounding land uses and meet the potential future commercial development demand. Industrial Districts Estimating future industrial acreage requirements is imprecise at best. Table 23 indicates a requirement of 115 acres the year 2010, based on the population ratio technique. However, the population ratio technique (or any other estimating technique) is not very reliable for estimating future 56 ., J I •• J industrial acreage requirements. One industrial development project could absorb most, if not more than, the projected requirement. And, depending on the nature of such an industrial development, it may or may not have a significant "ripple" effect on the local economy. Notwithstanding the unpredictability of industrial land use requirements, the following text examines the currently available industrial acreage in Jefferson City. In general there are four areas in Jefferson City with larger tracts available for industrial development. The obvious location of industrially-zoned acreage is the Callaway County side of the Missouri River. There are hundreds of acres of industrially-zoned land in this area. However, the vast majority of it is located in the 1 oo-year floodplain. Taking this into account, Table 22 indicates only 105 acres of vacant "M-1" zoned land being realistically developable (one-third of the total). On the Cole County side of the river, there are three areas containing larger available industrial sites. The first area is located along Rock Hill Road (Highway 179) just north of Truman Boulevard. On the east side of Rock Hill Road are approximately 34 acres of relatively flat "M-1" zoned land available. The tract is accessible via Hoover Drive. This is one of the better industrial sites in Jefferson City. On the west side of Rock Hill Road are approximately 32 acres of "M-1" zoned land that are currently undeveloped. This area is accessible via Railton Road. Topography will be a limiting factor in developing this area for industrial use. Just east of this tract is the Chesebrough Ponds manufacturing site, which has approximately 19 acres remaining that is undeveloped. However, steep slopes will inhibit expansion on this site. Further north on Highway 179, just beyond Boonville Road are several tracts of "M-2" and "M-3" zoned property. In total, there are about 37 acres available. Approximately 11 acres is zoned "M-3" (fronting Highway 179) and the remainder is zoned "M-2." The "M-2" acreage is adjacent to the Missouri Pacific Railroad. The topography is gently rolling and will inhibit larger industrial buildings. In the western reaches of Jefferson City, there are approximately 58 acres of undeveloped "M- 1" zoned land. Off Maytag Drive, there are a total of 44 acres of undeveloped "M-1" land, of which 26 acres are available in a single tract. The remaining 18 acres are available for the expansion of the Maytag facility and the new "spec" industrial building developed by the Jefferson City IDA. On the north side of Fairgrounds ·Road, across from the Maytag facility, is a nine-acre tract that is available for industrial use. Adjacent to this tract is the new Chesebrough Ponds facility which still has about four acres available for future expansion. The available industrial sites described here are perhaps the best industrial sites in Jefferson City. 57 In summary, other large, potentially suitable industrial sites within the City limits on the Cole County side of the river are non-existent. Building a levee on the Callaway County side of the river may enhance the industrial development prospects there. However, the feasibility of building such a levee is unknown at this point. The only other option for expanding industrial development opportunities are finding sites outside the current City limits. One such area is the Algoa Industrial Park, mentioned earlier in this Chapter. PUD District There are nearly 250 undeveloped acres zoned Planned Unit Development (PUD). This is a special district category in that ~~mixed-use" developments are permitted based on a City approved site development plan. In Jefferson City, this district has been used for the development of mixed- density residential developments (i.e., single family and multi-family built in a unified development scheme). A limited amount of commercial.development is sometimes permitted in such developments. The remaining undeveloped PUD acreage is associated with previously approved projects which are not yet complete. This acreage will supply, in part, the future demand for residential construction and, to a lesser extent, commercial development. Sum man Estimating future land use requirements is an essential element of planning for future growth. This analysis examined past land absorption trends and estimated future land use requirements based on the relationship of population to quantities of the various land use categories. Projecting the land absorption trends over the last 15 years into the future yields considerably more urban development requirements than the population ratio technique yields. However, the population ratio technique reflects a more moderate growth projection as described in Chapter 1. Of course, the actual future requirements for a particular land use may be more or less than that shown in Table 23. The intent of this analysis is to put future development requirements into perspective. While it is important to incorporate flexibility into the plan (i.e., propose more area for potential development than required), it is equally important to maintain an appropriate scale for plan. If done properly, planning for the provision of public infrastructure and public services will be more realistic and cost effective. 58 Introduction CHAYI'ER3 UTILITIES Water Systems The Jefferson City planning area is principally served by six (6) separate water systems including a City owned and operated system serving the north Jefferson City area. Callaway County Public Water Supply District No. 1 serves the ABB plant located in north Jefferson City and is also interconnected to the City-owned system to supplement water demand, if needed. On the Cole County side of the Missouri River, roughly two-thirds of the City's current land area is served by the Capital City Water Company. Outlying areas are served by Public Water Supply Districts No. 1 and No.2 (Cole County). United Water Missouri United Water Missouri is franchised through the Missouri Public Service Commission to serve a portion of the current corporate area of the City of Jefferson (approximately the corporate area which existed prior to the 1967 annexation). United Water Missouri uses the Missouri River as a source of supply. Raw water is pumped from the river to the main treatment facility, which has a rated capacity of 6.5 million gallons per day. Storage consists of two (2) clearwell reservoirs located at the treatment plant site having a combined capacity of 2.35 million gallons. Three (3) booster pumping stations are located within the distribution network (Washington Park, Southwest and Bald Hill) to provide adequate pressures throughout the system. The water distribution system consists primarily of pipes ranging from 6 inches to 20 inches in diameter. Pipes smaller than 6 inches are found only in isolated areas and are not a part of the primary network. United Water Missouri currently serves approximately 10,000 customers including 8,400 residential, 1,465 commercial/industrial and 125 other public and private fire protection users. The system is interconnected to Water District No. 2 at two meter points for additional reliability and storage capacity. Additionally, United Water Missouri operates and maintains four (4) water supply wells for Water District No.2 under a contractual agreement. 59 Public Water Supply District No. 1 (Cole Countv) Public Water Supply District No.1 of Cole County serves an area generally west of Highway 179 to the Jefferson Township line immediately west of Binder Lake and from the Missouri River on the north to the Moreau River on the south. The district encompasses the western "growth zone" of the Jefferson City planning area. Water supply is provided by a series of five (5) deep wells having a combined capacity of 2,890 gallons per minute (over 4.1 mUlion gallons per day). Water storage consists of two (2), one million gallon elevated tanks and a 100,000 gallon elevated tank. The distribution system is interconnected with both the United Water Missouri system and the Water Supply District No. 2 system for emergency purposes. Pipe sizes range from 4 inches to 12 inches in diameter. Public Water Supply District No. 1 currently serves approximately 3,400 customers of which 2,900 (85 percent) are residential users. The district added approximately 90 new customers during the past year, which is about half of that experienced for several years from the mid to late 1980's. Public Water Supply District No. 2 fCole Coung) Public Water Supply District No.2 of Cole County serves approximately a 65-square mile area including portions to the southern, southwestern and eastern portions of the Jefferson City corporate area. Water supply is obtained from four (4) deep wells having a combined capacity of2,050 gallons per minute (nearly 3 million gallons per day). Water storage is provided in four (4) elevated tanks having a combined capacity of 2.45 million gallons. Three (3) of the storage tanks are located near the north boundary of the District in close proximity to the United Water Missouri service area, and one (1) 250,000 gallon elevated tank is located to the south near the community ofBrazito. The entire distribution system is served by gravity through pipes ranging from 2 inches to 16 inches in diameter. The system is interconnected with the Public Water Supply District No. 1 system for emergency purposes, and also with the United Water Missouri system at two (2) meter locations. Public Water Supply District No.2 serves approximately 3,600 customers of which 90 percent are residential connections. The district has averaged approximately 90 new customers over the past three (3) years. North .Jefferson City Water System The north Jefferson City area is supplied water from two (2) wells having a combined production capacity of 430 gallons per minute (about 620,000 gallons per day). Water from both l . 60 wells is chlorinated before entering the distribution system. Storage is provided by one 50,000 gallon elevated tank. The distribution system consists of a total of approximately 6.5 miles of pipe ranging in diameter from 2 inches to 10 inches. Of this total, 1.25 miles of 6 inch PVC pipe serves the Jefferson City Memorial Airport area. The north Jefferson City water system serves a total of 33 residential customers and 9 large commercial/industrial customers. Service connection pipe sizes range from 5/8 inch to 3/4 inch for residential customers to 1 inch or larger for commercial/industrial users. Total water pumped from both wells during calendar year 1994 amounted to 8.74 million gallons. Based on hydrant flow tests taken by the City of Jefferson, before the 1993 flood and the 1994 interconnection with Callaway Water District No. 1, several locations within the north Jefferson City service area recorded significantly low pressures and available fire flows. During these tests, the north Jefferson City well system in this area limited flows to 625 gallons per minute plus consumption for a two-hour duration. The interconnection with Callaway Water District No. 1 would improve hydrant flows, if the District water line was placed in service. However, the City prefers not to introduce non-chlorinated District water supply into the City system. An additional hydrant test should be conducted to determine the current suitability of fire hydrant water supply with the lower, post flood consumption rates. If the Callaway Water District No. 1 supply is considered necessary for sufficient tire protection, operational provisions should be taken to assure successful blending of water supplies. Water Supply Development Supoort Capacity Introduction For purposes of estimating development support capacity, potential population that can be served by the existing water supply/distribution systems is computed below. For an area the size of the Jefferson City planning area, this is a reasonable method of developing an "order-of-magnitude" estimate of system capacity. In considering supply and storage requirements for the planning area, one must take into account average maximum daily consumption, potential required fire fighting consumption, and supply interruption due to power outages. Thus, the following formula is used to estimate system capacity: 61 (Maximum Supply Capacity + Storage) -(Supply lnterrupiWn + rue Fighting Demand) + Average Maximum Daily Consumption = POPULATION SUPPORT CAPACITY WHERE: Maximum Supply Capacity is the total maximum capacity of all wells or treatment plants (gallons per day). Storage equals the total ground or elevated storage within the system (gallons). Supply Interruption is the quantity of water lost due to the largest treatment component or well being out of service (gallons). Fue Fighting Demand is an established rate of flow expressed in gallons per minute (gpm) over a specific duration (hours). Varies based on the size and composition of the community. For purposes of this computation, a fire demand of 2,500 gallons per minute over 1! ten (10) hour period will be used for all systems, which amounts to a total of 1,500,00 gallons (2,500 gpm x 60 minutes x 10 hours). Avemge Maximum JJaily Consumption typically amounts to 1.6 to 1.8 times the average daily per capita demand. Using an average consumption rate of 125 gallons per capita per day x 1.8, the average maximum daily consumption amounts to 22S gallons per capita per day. Approximate populations that could be supported by the water supply systems in the Jefferson City area are computed as follows: United Water Missouri At the present time, high service pumping capability, with one (1) pump out of service, exceeds the rated capacity of the treatment plant. In addition, two (2) separate electrical feeders currently serve the plant site. Using the current plant capacity and clearwell storage results in the following population support capacity: (6.500.000 gallons+ 2.350.000 gallons)-0.500.000 gallons) 225 gaUons per person = 7.350. 000 gallons = 32,670 persons (SilJ 33,000 persons) 225 gallons per person Public Water Supply District No. 1 The largest well has a rated capacity of 710 gallons -per minute, and if out of service would produce a reduction of 1,022,400 gallons per day of a total supply capacity of 4,161,600 gallons per day. Incorporating available storage, fire fighting demand and average maximum daily consumption, the Cole County Public Water Supply District No. 1 could support the following population: 62 (4.161.600 gallons + 2.100.000 gallons) -0.022.400 gallons + 1.500.000 gallons) 225 gallons per person = 6.261.600 gallons-2.522.400 gallons 225 gallons per person = 3.379.200 gallons = 16,620 persons (say 17,000 persons) 225 gallons per person Public Water Supply District No. 2 Water supply is currently obtained from four (4) wells having a combined capacity of 2,050 gallons per minute or 2,952,000 gallons per day. This supply could be interrupted by the largest well out of service. This well, located in Brazito, has a capacity of 800 gallons per minute, or 1,152,000 gallons per day. This assumed loss, combined with fire fighting demand and maximum average daily consumption would result in the following population support capacity: {2,952.000 gaUons + 2.450.000 gallons) -£1.152.000 gaUons + 1.500.000 gal/pns) 225 gaUons per person = 5,402. 000 gallons -2. 652. 000 gaUons 225 gaUons per person = 2. 750.000 gallons = 12,220 persons (say 12,000 persons) 225 gaUons per person North .Jefferson City Water System The present water system serving the north Jefferson City area supplies water to approximately 120 persons. Before the 1993 flood, available water supply in this area limited fire flows to 625 gallons per minute plus consumption for a two (2) hour duration, and 524 gallons per minute plus consumption for a three (3) hour duration. Because of inadequate fire fighting capabilities, maximum support population can not realistically be computed. If utilized, the interconnection to Callaway County Water District No. 1 will improve fire flows, and increase the reliability of the overall system. Summary and Conclusions The Jefferson City planning area is currently served by several water supply entities that, in recent years, have upgraded and expanded their respective systems to meet and in most cases, exceed ~ current demands. The total of the above computations yields a current population support capacity 63 of approximately 62,000 persons, not including the north Jefferson City Water System or the Callaway County Public Water Supply District No 1. This equates to 111 percent of the "moderate" projection of population for the Jefferson City planning area for the year 2000 (population of 55,800; see Table 16, Chapter 1). By the year 2010, the current total system capacity would represent 104 percent of the projected population for the planning area (population of59,900 ). The computed population support capacities are conservative in that they reduce water supply capacities by the largest capacity component of the system being out of service concurrent with tire fighting demand and maximum average daily consumption. However, the capacities calculated for the Cole County Public Water Supply Districts 1 and 2 include service areas outside the Jefferson City planning area. This implies that a potential shortfall in supply versus demand could develop if population grows as projected. Thus, water supply/distribution upgrades will be necessary in order to supply future growth demands. This will be particularly important in isolated problem areas in order to provide adequate fire protection. Furthermore, future commercial/industrial development in the north Jefferson City area will require implementation of the proposed water supply/distribution improvements. Regarding the residential water service in the north Jefferson City area, the aftermath of the 1993 flood presents a dilemma. At current water usage and user rates, the system's annual operating expenses and revenues are nearly the same at approximately $7,000. However, the prospects of a levee in north Jefferson City may lead to increased water usage and the system's net revenue. Sanitan Sewer System Introduction The Jefferson City Regional Sewer District encompasses a total of approximately 64 square miles, the majority of which is south of the Missouri River in Cole County. Fifty-seven (57) percent of the district lies outside of the present corporate limits of the City, primarily including an area to the southwest along Rock Ridge Road and a larger area to the west extending to St. Martins. Much of the current service area to the west includes portions of the Grays Creek watershed, which was served by the former Cole County Regional Sewer District (CCRSD). CCRSD has since been combined into the Jefferson City Regional Sewer District.· In addition to the above service area, the "effective" service area is soon to become even larger. Though the boundaries of the sewer district will not be expanded, the City entered into an ~ 64 ~ \.. agreement with Holts Summit to accept their wastewater flows. The City of Holts Summit is preparing to construct a lengthy force main along Route AC which will convey wastewater from Holts Summit to a Jefferson City sewer line located on the northwest side of the Highway 54/Route AC interchange. A number of comprehensive studies have been undertaken in recent years, including a Wastewater Facilities Master Plan prepared by CH 2M Hill in 1986, and a study conducted by Black & Veatch Consulting Engineers regarding treatment plant improvements and odor control. Findings from these evaluations of the major wastewater system components and the adequacy to support continued development within the planning area are summarized below: Wastewater Treatment The Jefferson City Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP), located north of the Missouri River and south of the airport, was originally designed in the late 1960•s as a "primary" treatment facility. Initial construction consisted of the headworks, with a Parshall flume and comminutors, two (2) aerated grit chambers, and two (2) primary clarifiers. A high water pumping station was also constructed at this time for use when the Missouri River stage becomes high enough to hamper plant operations. Sludge handling facilities included a gravity thickener, centrifuges, and a sludge incinerator. During the late 197o•s, the primary portion of the plant was expanded and "secondary" treatment facilities were added, including two (2) additional primary clarifiers, a settled sewage pump station, two (2) plastic media/high-rate trickling filters, two (2) secondary clarifiers, and chlorination facilities. Vacuum filters were also added at this time for sludge dewatering. The plant has undergone several changes since the secondary treatment expansion, including: • A mechanically cleaned bar screen was added upstream of the Parshall flume. • Comminutors have been removed and replaced with manually cleaned bar screens. • The incinerator was removed from service, with land application becoming the primary method for sludge disposal. • The gravity thickener was rehabilitated, including mechanism replacement. • A flume was constructed on the effluent line for flow measurement. 65 • An emergency diesel generator was added for stand-by power. • All underground storage tanks were removed and replaced with above ground tanks. • A SCADA/telemetry system was installed which will allow for greater process control throughout plant and pump station processes. • Covers were built over the headworks structures and an odor scrubber was installed. Improvements to the Water Pollution Control Plant currently under further study and consideration include: • Replacement of trickling filter media and repair of tower walls. • Implementation of a large scale odor control project. • Development of a new sludge dewatering system. • Additional secondary treatment and clarification units. • Expansion of the plant laboratory and administration building. Numerous low-cost operational approaches are being taken to increase plant capacity. After evaluating the effectiveness of these approaches, the scope of any capital projects will be more clearly defined. Treatment Plant Capacity A complete capacity analysis of all component units of the wastewater treatment facility was conducted for the 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan with values ranging from 7.1 million gallons per day (mgd) for the secondary clarifiers to 53.6 mgd for the aeration tanks. The primary clarifiers had a rated capacity of 11.3 mgd under average conditions with all units in service and the trickling filters were rated at 23.9 mgd with no recycle. Using a peak flow of 18.1 mgd, which is the capacity of the settled sewage pump station with one of the largest pumps out of service, a hydraulic profile analysis through the plant was performed during the 1986 study. The results of this evaluation concluded that the existing plant was capable of handling this flow; however, the secondary clarifier weir was nearly submerged and the outlets of ~ 66 the aerated grit chambers were submerged at this flow, although no structures were overtopped. The hydraulic capacity of the wastewater treatment facility can be assumed to be 18.1 mgd, although improvements made since 1986 could affect the prior analysis. Historical Wastewater Flows Average flows to the wastewater treatment plant during calendar year 1992 amounted to 7.2 million gallons per day, which is approximately fifteen (15) percent higher than flows recorded during a previous five-year period from 1980 through 1984 (see Table 24). This increase is due in part to continued growth in the area over the past several years, plus additional flows from a sizable area formerly served by the Cole County Regional Sewer District. Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual Avg. Table 24 Historical Flows to the Water Pollution Control Plant (1980-84 & 1992) Jefferson City, Missouri 56 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 3.4 4.1 5.7 5.6 7.8 4.4 5.7 6.0 6.0 10.4 5.9 5.2 6.1 7.3 8.7 -5.7 5.6 9.2 9.2 5.8 7.2 6.0 8.4 7.1 4.3 7.2 6.8 5.9 8.3 4.4 7.3 4.9 5.2 7.4 4.5 6.1 7.3 6.2 6.7 3.7 5.4 6.9 4.2 7.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 4.7 8.6 6.0 5.5 5.0 6.0 7.8 4.1 5.0 9.1 6.7 8.6 4.6 5.8 6.5 6.3 8.2 FIVE YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE (1980-84): 6.3 1992 6.1 8.0 7.1 7.3 6.1 6.2 8.1 7.4 8.1 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.2 S6 Source: Department of Public Works, City of Jefferson, Missouri. Flows expressed in millions of gallons per day (mgd). 67 . . Collection System During the preparation of the 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan, the Jefferson City wastewater collection system consisted of approximately 1,060,000 lineal feet of pipe ranging in size from 8 inches to 48 inches in diameter. The system at that time was contained in nineteen (19) watershed basins covering a total of 27 square miles. For purposes of evaluating future flows during the 1986 study, seven (7) additional basins were added to the other tributary basins. These additional basins were principally to the east, south and southwest areas of the primary study area. The projected peak domestic sanitary flow from the twenty-six (26) basins, plus the flows from the former Cole County Regional Sewer District, was estimated to be 8.67 mgd for the year 2005. Peaking factors used in the 1986 study varied from 1.6 to 3.5 times the average flow depending on the characteristics of each study basin. In addition to estimating the future peak sanitary flow based on population and employment projections within each tributary basin, the 1986 study also addressed other contributing design flows, such as groundwater infiltration, Missouri River inflow and rainfall-dependent infiltration/inflow. Based on a combination of flow monitoring tests and computer models, the total projected design flow to the treatment plant was computed to be 50.2 mgd (including the peak sanitary flow and all infiltration and inflow). One of the underlying factors used to compute sanitary flows was population. While the jurisdiction of the sanitary district and the jurisdictions used in the demographic analysis in Chapter 1 are different, an attempt is made here to compare projections (see Table 25). The projections contained in Chapter 2, cover all territory within Jefferson Township and Summit Township, but exclude Holts Summit. The sanitary district does not include portions of southern Jefferson Township, nor does it include the portions of Summit Township outside of the north Jefferson City area. However, with the consolidation with the CCRSD, the Sanitary District now extends beyond the western boundary of Jefferson Township and includes the communities of St. Martins and Elston. With these differences understood, it is reasonable to assume that the vast majority of population in the Jefferson City region is contained within either of the territories described. However, Table 25 reveals significant discrepancies, of which only a relatively small.portion could be due to the differences in boundaries. While one can dispute projections, it remains inexplicable as to why the 1985 population estimates, contained in the 1986 Wastewater Study, are off by over 10,000 persons when compared to the 1990 Census figures for the demographic study area, used in Chapter 2. Furthermore, the same 1985 estimates fall short of the 1980 Census figures for the demographic study area by approximately 5,000 persons . 68 Based on available documentation, it is uncertain if the estimated average daily sanitary flows from the CCRSD, used in the 1986 study, represented 1985 or projected conditions. Regardless, it appears that the 1986 study underestimated population within the former CCRSD area. If true, tbe projected flows to the Jefferson City Water Pollution Control Plant could be off by as much as 800,000 gallons per day, by the year 2000. The 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan recommended several improvements to reduce infiltration that would lower the peak design flow to the plant to 33.4 mgd for the year 2005. The plan also recommended several system capacity improvements required to operate the collection system without surcharge during peak flow conditions. Several such improvements and changes have been made to the collection system in recent years, including: • Flow was diverted from Westview Heights into Basin 10 in the southwest portion of the service area. • Flow was added from Cole County Regional Sewer District to Basin 12 in the northwest portion of the service area. • Flow was removed from the Amador and Terra Bella Pump Stations in Basin 13 and diverted to the former CCRSD area. • The Scholastic Pump Station was constructed in the east portion of the service area, which resulted in a minor increase in flow in Basin 16. • A 24-inch pipe. in Basin 14 was replaced with a 30-inch pipe. • The Greenberry (Moreau) Pump Station was upgraded in Basin 4 at the southern boundary of the service area. • All manholes in Basin 15 were rehabilitated to reduce flows in the receiving Basin 14. • Smoke testing, identification and correction of illegal connections, manhole and line repairs and manhole grouting was accomplished in Basins 4 and 12. Isolated surcharge problems exist in several basins to the southwest and west of the downtown Jefferson City area. The City has an ongoing flow monitoring program to identify potential problem areas and to prioritize future capital improvements. 69 Summary and Conclusions The existing Jefferson City wastewater collection system and treatment components adequately serve the present area of service under most normal, dry weather conditions. Projected peak design flows, however, identified in the 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan, substantially exceeds the capacity of the plant and isolated sections of the collection system. These projections may be underestimated due to the addition of the CCRSD area and the future acceptance of the flows from Holts Summit. Many trunk sewer deficiencies identified in the 1986 study are located in the southwestern and western portions of the service area which are likely to receive additional flows from new development in these areas. It will be necessary for the City to continue to upgrade the deficient links in the collection system in order to adequately serve existing and probable future development. The treatment plant poses the most significant constraint on future development. As such, improvements to the wastewater treatment facility should also be programmed in accordance with studies currently underway to increase the operating capacity of major system components. The expansion of the sewer district to include the former CCRSD area and the proposed connecting of the Turkey Creek trunk sewer (to serve Holts Summit), raises serious policy questions regarding the planning for future growth. The expansive collection system of pipes (panicularly the Grays Creek trunk sewer) opens up vast territory for potential sanitary sewer hookups . Other than mitigating existing groundwater contamination caused by the former or existing septic systems in the CCRSD area, the expanded sanitary sewer collection system may result in unintentional inefficiencies. As mentioned earlier, fifty-seven (57) percent of the Jefferson City Regional Sanitary Sewer District is outside the current corporate limits of Jefferson City. However, there is more potentially developable land within the current City limits to accommodate projected growth for the entire planning area, as revealed in Chapter 3, "Land Use ." Therefore, this expanded sanitary sewer collection system affords a significant potential for additional "leap frog" development to occur. Given the changes in the coverage of the sanitary sewer district, it would be appropriate to initiate a comprehensive update to the 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan. In the interim, the sewer district staff is revising its sewer extension policy, with the objective of discouraging leap frog development. Furthermore, the District's decision to conduct a cost analysis of expanding the treatment plant should provide meaningful direction. 70 Table 25 Comparison of Population Projections (Comprehensive Plan Update vs. 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan) Jefferson City, Missouri Year 1980 1985 1990 Source (actual) (estimate) (actual) 2000 U. S. Census 57 46,606 -51,946 -- Comprehensive Plan Update: 58 Low Projection ---52,800 Moderate Projection ---55,800 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan: Within 26 Watershed Basins -35,695 ---- CCRSD Area -5 875 59 --' Subtotal -41,570 --- 2005 2010 ---- -53,600 -59,900 39,836 - 5,875(3) - 45,711 -- 57 Census figures are the combined total population of Jefferson Township, in Cole County, and Summit Township, in Callaway County minus the population of Holts Summit. 58 From Table 16. 59 Not expressly stated in the 1986 Wastewater Facilities Master Plan. This figure is based upon a back-calculation using an average daily sanitary flow of 470,000 gallons and a per-capita contribution of 80 gallons per day, as stated in the 1986 Master Plan. It is not clear if this sanitary flow figure is a projection or if it represents a 1985 estimate. 71 Stormwater Drainage Introduction In many communities, managing stormwater runoff has historically taken a second position to sanitary sewer utilities. Left unmanaged, new development in the upstream portions of a watershed cr~tes additional stormwater runoff, causing flooding problems in areas near the watershed discharge point. In the Jefferson City area, storm drainage management is particularly challenging. This is because runoff coefficients are high, due to the hilly terrain and soils of low permeability. Jefferson City has recognized the storm drainage problems associated with its urban development for at least 30 years. This is evident from the City commissioning Homer and Shifrin to conduct a storm drainage study in 1963. While the resultant study contained a number of valid recommendations, little was accomplished in terms of implementing a comprehensive storm drainage management program. In 1986, the City hired Black & Veatch to develop a stormwater management plan. The key findings, recommendations and subsequent actions by the City are summarized below. · Stormwater Management Plan The 1986 Stormwater Management Plan identified several key problems associated with the City's storm drainage system: • Lack of funds for needed storm drainage improvements. • Many portions of the storm drainage system do not have sufficient capacity to handle a 1 o-~ear storm. • Severe deterioration of corrugated metal pipe in some areas. The Stormwater Management Plan also made the following recommendations: • Create a stormwater utility to operate and maintain stormwater facilities. The utility should be funded with user fees. • Spending of nearly $4 million (1986 dollars) on various stormwater facilities located in eight (8) watersheds. • Acquisition of maintenance equipment. 72 • A stormwater management ordinance was drafted as part of the planning study. This Ordinance was adopted by the City Council in January 1986. Stormwater Facility Improvements While a stormwater utility has yet to be established, the City has invested a considerable amount of money in stormwater improvements. In 1987, Jefferson City voters passed a 5-year, 1/2 cent capital improvements sales tax which generated approximately $3 million for storm drainage improvements. Also, some of the other funds generated by this tax, which were earmarked for street and bridge work, remedied some storm drainage problems as well. In 1992, the Jefferson City voters again approved a 5-year, 1/2 cent capital improvements sales tax. Not including storm drainage improvements associated with programmed street and bridge improvements, there is $1.65 million budgeted in this revenue source for storm drainage improve- ments. While these investments by the City in storm drainage infrastructure are crucial to stormwater management, controlling stormwater runoff from private property is· an important component as well. Adoption of the stormwater management ordinance in 1986, affords the City some regulatory control. However, it may be appropriate for the City to re-examine the effectiveness of this ordinance, for reasons described below: Stormwater Management Ordinance The stormwater management ordinance is relatively vague in its attempt to assure that stormwater runoff from new development does not adversely impact downstream or upstream properties. Specifically, the standards are vague, although reference is made to the "Storm Drainage Design Manual," which is an administrative tool. It is also apparent that the ordinance gives the Director of Public Works unlimited administrative latitude in determining acceptable storm drainage facilities for particular development. It's advisable that at least fundamental design standards be incorporated in the ordinance (i.e., design year storm for which storm drainage facilities design shall be based upon). Detailed design standards should remain in the Design Manual. Another apparent weakness in the ordinance is that on-site stormwater detention is an optional means for controlling stormwater runoff. A developer may elect to improve downstream drainage facilities to accommodate additional runoff caused by such a development. However, with land development occurring on an incremental basis, it becomes nearly impossible to accurately assess the downstream storm drainage infrastructure requirements. Additionally, the City cannot impose on any 73 one particular development greater infrastructure requirements to accommodate future developments, without just compensation. This is why many communities have opted for requiring on-site stormwater detention. This assures that stormwater runoff from a particular site is no more than predevelopment conditions (based on specific storm intensity and duration). This approach is reasonable and fair in that stormwater runoff is the responsibility of individual developments, instead of the community at large. A drawback to this approach is that maintenance of private stormwater control facilities may be deferred, making them less effective. To avoid this situation, a municipality could require that public maintenance easements be dedicated for maintenance access. Of course, this would require additional funding. Summary and Conclusions The City has undertaken a considerable amount of remedial action since 1987 to accommodate stormwater runoff. However, the City is ·still playing "catch-up" in its attempt to provide adequate storm drainage facilities for development which bas occurred in the past several decades. No one particular development has caused the storm drainage problems. Rather, it's the aggregate of urban development, without an adequate stormwater management program, which overtaxes portions of the ~ system. The City should be commended for taking actions to implement portions of the 1986 Stormwater Management Plan and adopting a stormwater management ordinance. However, while the City continues to play catch-up on existing storm drainage problems, it should consider strengthening it stormwater ordinance. In areas where area-wide detention facilities are not provided or planned (such as provided by Sunset Lake), the City should consider making on-site deten- tion/retention a requirement for future development. Additionally, the City could strengthen its requirements for erosion control in the stormwater ordinance. In addition to making stormwater ordinance modifications, the City should consider expanding upon the 1986 Stormwater Management Plan to examine, in more detail, the various watershed basins. These detailed studies can benefit from the Comprehensive Plan Update, which should provide direction with respect to proposed land uses. However, in order to conduct these detailed studies, it will be necessary to obtain detailed topographic maps (i.e., 1" = 100' scale maps with two-foot contour intervals). Though costly, these maps can serve other uses such as a base for developing a geographic information system (GIS), and other engineering and planning applications. 74 r'. Another consideration for stormwater management relates to the quality of storm water runoff. Under the revised federal Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) now requires compliance with specific stormwater control regulations for construction projects involving more than five-acres of grading. The same is required of a variety of industries listed in the Act. Also the EPA has explored promulgating regulations for certain commercial uses, such as gas stations, but has yet to do so. While it is beyond the scope of the Comprehensive Plan Update, the City needs to evaluate what impact, if any, the Act may have on City-owned stormwater control facilities. 75 " \ CHAPrER4 DEVELOPMENT FACTORS Introduction . There are a number of factors that have influenced the pattern of urbanization within the Jefferson City planning area. These same influences will affect future development as well. For example, economic and population trends fueled demand for various types of land development, particularly residential and commercial land uses. Other factors affecting the existing and future land use patterns include transportation systems (principally highways and streets), availability of public utilities, and physiographic conditions. Plate 3 graphically portrays some of the factors that will influence future development options. There are two key physiographic features, floodplain and steep slopes, which have already greatly influenced development patterns. Comparing Plate 1 to Plate 3, "Existing Land Use," one can readily see the relationship of the two physiographic features and the current pattern of development. Plate 3 also displays proposals ·contained in the City's Thoroughfare Plan, prepared in 1988. Also, key elements of the preliminary Airport Layout Plan (ALP) are shown. The following narrative summarizes how these factors constrain or provide opportunities for future development. For purposes of this discussion, the planning area is divided by the two counties in which it is comprised. Cole County By far the majority of existing development in the Jefferson City planning area is located south of the Missouri River in Cole County. Avoidance of floodplain and steep slopes is quite apparent in the existing development pattern. There are, however, portions of the older area of the City that are within the 1 00-year floodplain. Another section of the City, with portions of development in the floodplain, is located in the Grays Creek watershed near its confluence with the Missouri River. Much of the downtown area that is within the floodplain has been redeveloped into parking lots for State government employees. 77 During severe flood conditions, these parking areas become useless, causing inconveniences. However, use of floodplains for surface parking is more appropriate than the previous land uses, which were subjected to significant property damage repeatedly. Existing development within the 100-year floodplain occurred. prior to the establishment of a floodplain regulation program administered by a federal agency now named the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The City of Jefferson participates in this program and has established floodplain development regulations in compliance with federal requirements. In essence, development in a floodplain is prohibited, unless it is elevated above the floodplain and/or meets certain flood protection construction standards. However, with regard to planning future development within the Cole County side of the Missouri River, the floodplain sho~ld be avoided, except for agricultural crops and limited recreation facilities. Steep slopes are prevalent within the west-central, southwest, and northwest areas of the Cole County side of the planning area. Further west, the occurrence of steep slopes dissipates significantly. Hence, it is not surprising to observe that most of the development in the unincorporated portion of the planning area has occurred in the west. Also, the western area contains large areas of contiguous undeveloped land with slopes less than 20 percent and is within or near the current gravity sewer service area. The Thoroughfare Plan proposals, if implemented, will create development opportunities adjacent to the City. If implemented, the western portions of the Wears Creek watershed will likely become the predominant growth zone of the planning area. The most significant thoroughfare proposals are the extension of Highway 179, from Highway 50 south to Route C, and the extension of Edgewood Drive, west to Country Club Drive. It is proposed that Edgewood Drive be eventually built to arterial street standards. Also proposed, is the extension of Wildwood Drive which will become a north/south arterial. Hence, the area generally bounded by Missouri Boulevard, Highway 179 extension, Rock Ridge Road, and Country Club Drive will be well served by an arterial road network. An interconnecting system of collector streets will be necessary, such as the proposed extension of American Avenue. Another significant highway improvement proposal is the construction of a grade-separated interchange at Highway 50/63 and Eastland Drive. This will improve highway access in the eastern section of Jefferson City, which has experienced considerable development over the last two decades. There remains several larger pockets of undeveloped land in this vicinity, for which access will be further improved with the construction of two proposed collector streets; Nelson Drive and Morningside Drive. 78 A drawback associated with the proposed interchange is that it improves truck access as well. Eastland Drive provides the most direct access route from Highway 50/63 to the commercial and industrial enterprises located on East McCarty Street. However, Eastland Drive serves as a major collector street for a principally single family residential area. Current truck traffic on Eastland Drive has been a concern of area residents and the new interchange may encourage additional truck traffic. There is no simple solution to this issue. However, one option to explore would be improving the intersection of Highway 50/63 and City View Drive and requiring trucks, in excess of a certain gross vehicle weight, to use this intersection as the access route to/from East McCarty Street. Callaway County The Callaway County side of the planning area presents development constraints of a much greater magnitude than the Cole County side. The most significant constraint is the 1 00-year floodplain associated with the Missouri River. The "Great Flood of 1993" exceeded the 100-year floodplain elevation and, at the time of this writing, the extent of property damage had not been determined. The greatest impact of the 1993 flood appeared to be in the former Cedar City area, now part of Jefferson City. It was questionable if the homes and businesses could be repaired or whether or not they should be replaced. Note: FEMA requirements prohibit repair/replacement of a structure damaged beyond 50 percent of its appraised value unless it is built in accordance with FEMA standards (i.e., elevated above the 100-year event flood elevation). As mentioned earlier in this Chapter, development in a floodplain should be avoided. Even if FEMA standards are met, it remains questionable if developing in a floodplain is prudent. Of course, the Missouri River flats provide a more suitable terrain for the Airport and larger industrial facilities than the more rugged terrain which is common elsewhere in the planning area. Unlike any other flood in recent history, the 1993 flood has clouded the future development prospects for the north Jefferson City area. From a practical standpoint, marketability of property for development in this area will be stifled until protection can be provided by an adequate levee (minimum 100-year event flood protection). For sake of comparison, the Earth City and Riverport industrial/commercial parks near St. Louis are protected by a 500-year flood event levee. These areas survived the 1993 flood. However, the Chesterfield Valley area, also near St. Louis,~ protected by a 100-year flood event levee. Unfortunately, this older levee failed in the 1993 flood and hundreds of businesses were severely damaged. 81 The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has initiated a flood protection ·planning study for the north Jefferson City area. According to a Corps representative, this study will take nearly two years to complete. Building a larger levee will be one of the options studied. If the levee option were to be selected, it would take a minimum of six years to be built, according to the Corps of Engineers. m Just north of the floodplain is a dramatic rise in ground elevation and then very rugged terrain. Plate 3 illustrates the magnitude of slopes greater than 20 percent in the northern portions of the planning area. One can readily see that the development patterns in this upland area has closely followed the narrow ridge lines. This combination of rugged terrain and lack of public sanitary sewer collection systems bas led to predominantly very low density residential development. It is probable that future development in this area will be similar with large portions of the hillsides remaining in its natural state. Actual bomesites will be relatively small while the remaining area of the lots left undisturbed. Impact of the New Missouri River Bridge In 1992, a second bridge was completed, greatly improving the Highway 54/63 river crossing. This improved river crossing, and other highway improvements just south of the bridge terminus, will ease traffic flow to/from Cole County and Callaway County. Additionally, the segment of Highway 54 between Holts Summit and Fulton is being upgraded to a controlled access highway. Thus, Jefferson City will be linked to Interstate 70 via a divided, access controlled highway. The bridge and highway improvements will likely result in the following: • Improved safety and reduced travel time to/from Jefferson City and other portions of the State, particularly the east/northeast areas. This will enhance business travel associated with State government activities and commerce travel in general.· • Reduction or elimination of traffic congestion on the bridge crossing, particularly that which bas historically been attributable to "through traffic" to/from the Lake of the Ozarks. • Improved conditions for commuter traffic to/from the north and Jefferson City employment centers. 60 According to an article in the News Tribune, June 30, 1993. 82 The third item, described above, raises a significant question regarding the plan for the Jefferson City area. Will the improved access stimulate urban development north of Jefferson City? For reasons associated with the development constraints described earlier, the potential for growth within the northern portion of the planning area will be limited. However, the improved river crossing could lead to increased development pressure north of the delineated planning area, including Holts Summit and beyond. Furthermore, commuting to/from Columbia and Jefferson City becomes less of a chore. Other factors, such as relatively inexpensive land and the lack of zoning and subdivision regulations in Callaway County may serve to stimulate growth north of the Jefferson City planning area. However, there are several factors that will temper development pressure in southern portions of Callaway County as a result of the improved River crossing: • The availability of less expensive land and lack of zoning and subdivision regulations existed prior to the bridge improvements. If one concludes that the situation in Callaway County is more conducive to building affordable housing, the market for such housing would likely have responded (more than it already has), even without the improved river crossing. • Except for the areas that can be readily connected to the planned Turkey Creek interceptor (see Chapter 3), the lack of public sanitary sewer severely limits the density of development. Standards and permitting procedures for "packaged" or lagoon-type sewage treatment systems have become more restrictive, making it less feasible to build at higher densities. • The residential market demand will likely continue to be higher within the Cole County side of the planning area. Even though housing prices, on average, may tend to be higher on the Cole County side, people generally prefer to locate as close to their work place as possible. Also, the Cole County side has a more comprehensive array of commercial services and schools are more conveniently available. • There is a considerable amount of developable land on the Cole County side of the river that can be readily serviced by water and sanitary sewer. Furthermore, planned thoroughfare improvements will open up even more territory for potential development. There is substantially more developable land, serviceable by utilities, on the Cole County side than required to meet the projected demand for the entire planning area. 83 Summary and Conclusions Physiographic conditions have had the greatest influence on the pattern of urbanization, within the Jefferson City planning area. While real estate economics has contributed to "leap frog" growth into unincorporated areas, it has followed the path of least resistance in terms of physiographic constraints. . As development occurs over the planning horizon, it will be greatly influenced by the factors described and illustrated in this Chapter. The proposals contained in the Thoroughfare Plan have particular significance for future growth options. If implemented, the area within the upper reaches of the Wears Creek watershed may become the prime development zone of the planning area. If sanitary sewer service is extended into the western portions of the sanitary district (e.g., west of Country Club Drive and the Capital Mall area), it will create additional development opportunities. However, extension of the current collection system may serve to scatter urban development even further, unless the revised sewer extension policy (mentioned in Chapter 3) is effective in limiting new connections. From an urban planning viewpoint, "leap frog" development leads to inefficiencies in the provision of public infrastructure and services. Such inefficiencies result in additional costs. Furthermore, dispersion of urban development contributes to natural resource depletion and environmental degradation, by the simple fact that more petroleum-fueled vehicle miles are traveled for work, shopping, etc. Several examples of public cost inefficiencies associated with urban sprawl includes: • More miles are traveled by public safety vehicles, relative to the population served. Also, police protection and fire safety coverage may become diminished, by increased response times to the more remote development locations. • More school buses are required and additional miles must be traveled to transport students. • More lineal feet of water and sewer utilities are required, relative to the population served. A specific example in the Jefferson City area is the expansion of the sanitary sewer collection system. Groundwater contamination, within the watershed of Binder Lake, was a significant factor leading to the formation of the Cole County Regional Sewer District (CCRSD). The feasibility of the CCRSD was nebulous from the start, and eventually it was annexed into the Jefferson City Regional Sewer District (JCRSD). The 1 84 JCRSD installed the Grays Creek trunk sewer to pick up the flows from the former CCRSD collection system. Divide the cost of this trunk sewer by the approximate 6,000 persons served and the cost inefficiency becomes quite evident. As revealed in Chapter 2, "Land Use,'' there is already more potentially developable land within the current City limits to support projected growth requirements for the entire planning area. It would be wise to foster future growth within and adjacent to the City. 85 CHAPTERS RECREATION FACll.JTIES Introduction An important component of the Comprehensive Plan Update is planning for the recreation needs of its citizens. In order to develop a recreation plan component, several important pieces of information must be gathered and analyzed. This information includes data elements such as: • An inventory of all the recreation facilities which are available in the area being studied. This inventory must include those facilities provided by public, semi-public, and private entities. • Information regarding the demand for participation in the various recreation activities on the part of the residents of the area for which the plan is being developed. This data element usually involves attempting to determine the level to which the resident population participates in a particular recreation activity in any given year. • The existing and projected population for the area being studied. • An evaluation of the existing recreation facilities which exist in the area with respect to their quality, current level of use, service area, and segment of the resident population being served. • Review of previous plans and studies relating to recreation facilities and/or activities which have been done for the community. • Review of the most recent Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP) for the state in which the community is located. • Review of key national studies regarding recent trends in the attitudes and preferences of the American public for recreation facilities and activities. This chapter of the Comprehensive Plan for the City of Jefferson City represents the results ~ of each of the data elements outlined above which were compiled in preparing the recreation plan 87 component. The work conducted for each of the data elements is briefly outlined in this introduction and then the results are discussed in greater detail in the subsequent sections of this chapter. Inventory of Recreation Facilities One of the first data elements of the recreation planning process for Jefferson City involved getting the best data possible to create an inventory of recreation facilities both in and outside the corporate limits of Jefferson City. An inventory survey form was created and sent to entities in the area so that they themselves could describe the quantity and types of facilities which they owned or for which they were responsible. The inventory survey form was based on the most recent formats which were used in the Missouri and the Dlinois SCORP programs. Using a computer data base program, the survey data was tabulated in order to create an inventory of facilities for the entire Jefferson City area. The facilities were categorized according to ownership (public, semi-public and private) and also grouped according to their location (either in or outside the city corporate limits). After the initial results were tabulated and checked, data for known facilities, which was missing in the original survey responses, was gathered. In addition, data from the original survey responses which seemed questionable were checked and modified as necessary. In addition, all existing major recreation facilities within the City and the Study Area were plotted on the Study Area base map which was developed for the Comprehensive Plan program (see Plate 4). Resident Demand Survey In order to develop an accurate picture of current demand for recreation facilities and activities in the City and the Study Area identified for the comprehensive planning program, a stratified, random sample telephone survey of City and Study Area residents was conducted. A survey sample of 405 households was contacted inside the City limits and an additional sample of 211 households was contacted outside the City limits but within the Study Area. The survey was directed primarily at gaining two types of information. First, the survey was designed to determine the current level of participation in various recreation activities by the City and Study Area residents. Secondly, the survey was intended to gather some basic data about the attitudes of the City and Study Area residents with respect to how they felt about the quality and availability of recreation facilities, how important they felt the availability of facilities were (particularly compared to other municipal services), and their perceptions of the cost of participating in activities where fees were involved. 88 r' The survey was conducted by Attitude Research Corporation (ARC) who also designed the survey instrument (questionnaire) with input from the City and the consulting team assisting the City with preparation of the Comprehensive Plan. It was important to stratify the survey sample for several reasons. First, it was important to know if there were differences in patterns of recreation activity participation by residents of the City versus residents outside the City within the Study Area. Secondly, it was also necessary to know these patterns in order to determine what facilities might have to be constructed if the City were to annex any of the areas involved. Also, it was believed that by stratifying the sample some indication might be provided of the extent to which City recreation facilities were being utilized by non-residents. Population In order to conduct the demands and facilities needs analysis, it was necessary to determine the most current population for the City and the Study Area and to have an estimate of the future population. The basis for the current population was the data provided by the 1990 Census of Population. Projections of future population use the "moderate" population projection for the planning area, as presented in Chapter 1. The current and projected population data was used to extrapolate the demand survey sample data regarding the participation in recreation activities to the City and Study Area levels. Evaluation of Existing Facilities A general in-field review was conducted of all the principal recreation facilities operated by the City of Jefferson City, and certain key facilities operated by other public, semi-public, and/or private entities. This review was intended to provide an initial impression of the extent, usage, and quality of the facilities. A more detailed analysis of the City facilities will be conducted in conjunction with the second phase of the recreation plan component of the Comprehensive Plan. This phase will involve the development of specific recommendations and plan concepts for existing and proposed City recreation facilities. Review of Recent Plans and Studies In recent years Jefferson City has conducted several other studies related to recreation facilities in the City. These include: • The Master Plan for Deborah Cooper Rivelfront Park on Adrian Island -This study was prepared for the Housing Authority of the City of Jefferson and the Deborah Cooper Foundation by Booker Associates, Inc. in August of 1990. This study provides a plan for 91 the recommended development of Adrian Island along the river at the foot of the State ~ Capitol grounds as a riverfront park. • Proposal for Development of the City of Jefferson Greenway System -This report was prepared by the Department of Parks and Recreation Greenway Advisory Committee in October of 1991. This document provides a plan for the development of a multi-purpose trail system throughout the City. • The Jefferson City Golf Survey -The survey and the accompanying report that was completed by Flatt Golf Services in August of 1993. This work was commissioned by the Parks and Recreation Commission in an attempt to determine if it was feasible to expand the City's existing golf course facilities. Each of these reports was reviewed to determine what recommendations or conclusions were reached and what kinds of recreation facilities were involved. Notations regarding the pertinent data in each were made for potential future reference and incorporation into the recreation plan component. In addition to these plans and reports, other existing data about the individual parks and recreation facilities owned by the City were reviewed. This included the Park and Recreation Department's Parks and Facilities Guide, seasonal program guides, and data gathered in conversations with the staff. Other data which, in some instances, was provided by the respondents to the inventory survey was also reviewed. Review of Missouri SCORP The most recent version (1990) of the Missouri Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP) was reviewed in several respects. Since the approach and methodology being used to develop the recreation plan component of the Comprehensive Plan is based on that of a typical SCORP, the inventory survey form and the demand survey questionnaire used in the most recent Missouri SCORP was reviewed for potential adaptability to the Jefferson City project. Other components of the SCORP were reviewed for potential applicability including the various standards used in determining the statewide need for facilities such as: • The carrying capacity standards for each type of recreation activity facility (i.e. ball diamonds, swimming pools, basketball courts, etc.); • The recreation activity participation rates per capita; and 92 • The inventory of facilities in the State's data base for Cole County and the surrounding counties. Some of this material proved to be useful in developing the facility inventory survey form and the demand survey form. The inventory of facilities was compared against the inventory data which had already been collected for the City and the Study Area and was found to be incomplete. Thus, the information from this data base was not used in developing the recreation plan component. In addition to reviewing the Missouri SCORP, the Dlinois SCORP was also reviewed for the possibility of providing further useful direction. In fact, the Dlinois program proved to be far more insightful and provided a number of more detailed standards and examples which were deemed to be useful to the Jefferson City project. In particular, the inventory survey form used a much more comprehensive and yet straightforward approach to gathering the inventory of facilities information. Thus, its format and approach was used heavily in developing the Jefferson City survey for the inventory of facilities. Review of National Data Ra:ardinz Recreation Activities In developing a community plan for recreation facilities it is always beneficial to compare the community's facilities, activity participation patterns, and facility usage to national data. Two of the most extensive studies on the recreation preferences and patterns of the American public were used in this effort for Jefferson City. Each of these publications will be discussed in the following sections of this chapter. One of these studies is the Report and Recommendations to the President of the United States. This report was prepared by the President's (Reagan) Commission on Americans Outdoors and was published initially in December of 1986. The other study is the result of a nationwide survey conducted by the National Recreation and Park Association (NRPA). The report which resulted is entitled 7he Benefits of Local Recreation and Park Services: A Nationwide Study of the Perceptions of the American Public. The work was performed by Pennsylvania State University and the report was published in 1992. Key data from each of these reports is cited in order for the City and its residents to have a fuller understanding of how recreation is perceived nationally. In addition, where possible certain of the findings at the national level are compared with the results of the recreation demand survey conducted for this project. However, it should be noted that the premise of the demand survey and those of these national studies are not completely parallel. For example, the NRPA survey focused on the public's perceived benefit of recreation activities and facilities. While the City's demand survey addressed this subject with a more limited set of questions at the end of the survey. The report of the President's Commission focused exclusively on outdoor recreation activities. The survey of 93 the City and Study Area attempted to gain data with respect to activities which are conducted both outdoors and indoors. How Recreation is Perceived-A U.S. and .Jefferson City Comparison In developing a recreation plan for Jefferson City, it is useful to look at the attitudes and behavior of American citizens, as a whole, as it relates to their recreational preferences and to compare the published data with that being compiled for the City. While not all of the data from the two most recent national studies discussed below will have a direct correlation to like data from the Jefferson City survey, related findings from the work conducted for the City will be noted. In addition, a subsequent section of this chapter will discuss data from the Jefferson City survey research. As noted previously, a study sponsored by the NRP A was published in 1992 to address the issue. 61 This study, like others, found that most Americans feel they have less time available for recreation and leisure than they had five years ago. The trend of this feeling has been on the increase over the last 25 years and has increased more ~apidly in the last 10 years. This trend has been validated by the majority of demographic studies and surveys which have been done on this subject in recent years. More importantly, this pattern of responses has persisted in spite of the high value which most Americans attribute to leisure time. Compared to five years ago, 47% of the NRP A sample said that today they had less time for recreation and leisure while only 22% reported more time. The remaining 31% said the amount of recreation and leisure time had stayed the same. Although the survey of residents of the Jefferson City Study Area did not ask a similar question, we can make some generalizations about the perceptions of leisure time patterns of the Jefferson City area residents. The survey indicated that the r~idents have differing amounts of leisure time and varied leisure interests. However, Nearly 59% of the respondents said they had one to three hours of leisure or recreation time on an average weekday. Approximately 22% said they had seven or more hours. Not unexpectedly, respondents had much more leisure time on an average weekend day. More than one--half (51.6%) said they had seven or more hours of leisure time on an average weekend day. These responses are not unusual for residents of a community which is not part of a major metropolitan area. If the residents of metropolitan St. Louis or Kansas City were asked a similar question, the amounts of leisure or recreation time would be significantly lower. For example, similar surveys conducted in the St. Louis area in recent years derived responses which indicated the typically more hurried lifestyles of a large metropolitan area. 61 The Benefits of Local Recreation and Park Services: A Nationwide Study of the Perceptions of the American Public; Godbey, Graefe, and James-Pennsylvania State University, 1992. 94 ~- r' Evidence of hurried lifestyles nationally was demonstrated by the NRP A survey by the fact that 35% of respondents, when asked how they felt about their time, said that they always felt rushed. Only 18% reported never feeling rushed, while 48% sometimes felt rushed. In spite of the fact that large percentages of the population felt rushed and don't have as much time for recreation and leisure as they would like, their leisure time is important to them. When U.S. citizens were asked whether work or leisure was more important to them, only 35% of the population said work. The largest percentage 38%, said work and leisure were equally important while 26% said leisure was more important. In the Jefferson City Study Area people also believe that recreation facilities are important. Sixty-four percent (64%) felt that they were as important as other City services. Only 10% felt they were less important. Slightly more than one out of five Americans reported taking up a new recreation activity during the last twelve months. The majority of these new activities could be characterized as sport and exercise. The likelihood of taking up a new leisure activity was statistically related to age, residence type, marital status, education level, income level, race, and political affiliation. This trend is consistent with the national trend toward greater awareness of health issues and the role which exercise plays in improving health. Slightly more than seven out of ten respondents reported there was a park or playground within walking distance of their home. The NRP A study found that 75% of all respondents used parks and playgrounds; 51% using them occasionally and 24% using them frequently. When rural residents (who, by definition, have no local government) are excluded, 76% of the sample used such parks and playgrounds. An interesting finding relating to the use of park and recreation facilities by rural residents was uncovered in compiling the Jefferson City data. In instances where a larger city acts as a "hub" for a rural area, the rural residents tend to make significant use of the park and recreation facilities in the hub City. This is particularly true for certain activities such as baseball, softball, basketball, tennis, and certain other activities. The hub city and semi-public and private groups within the hub city often build facilities to meet the demand, which is often not from the city's own residents. As will be indicated . later in this chapter, this seems to be true in Jefferson City. For example, the demand for softball and baseball from residents of Jefferson City would suggest that there are more facilities for these activities than residents demand requires. However, if the residents of the portions of the Study Area outside the City limits are factored in, the excess capacity of facilities to support these activities becomes a deficiency. Age also plays a part in this picture. The resident population of Jefferson City tends to be older overall and the younger age groups are growing more slowly. In the non-City portion of the study area, the population tends to be younger overall and the younger age segments are growing at a greater rate. In addition, the activities like those mentioned above tend to be the most popular with 95 children and young adults. In the NRPA study, those persons over 55 years of age were more likely ~ to report not using parks at all, a sizeable minority of older respondents did report either occasional or frequent park use. Those between the ages of 65-7 4 were more 1 ikel y to use local parks "frequently" than any other age group. Thus, retirement appears to play a large role in frequency of park use. It is interesting to note that other national studies have found that preferences for recreation activities are developed earlier in life and that age is not necessarily a factor in determining what activities are engaged in by older adults. Perceived Benefits of Local Parks Level of Benefits From Local Parks The National Recreation and Park Association study set out to measure the benefits received from local parks at the individual, household and community level. "By benefit we mean anything good that happens because public parks are there. To what degree do you personally benefit from local parks. "62 Next, they were asked about benefits to other members of the household and finally the community as a whole. The NRP A study indicated that In terms of perceiving benefits for other members of the "household", there were significant relationships with age, gender, income, education level, marital status and the number of people in the residence. Some of this information will be portrayed in the following tables. As shown in Table 26, perceptions of "community" level benefits was statistically related to age and gender. Table 27 indicates the perception of the respondents in the NRP A study sample regarding the possible types of benefits of park and recreation facilities. The concept of deriving economic benefits to the residents or to the city from park and recreation facilities were mentioned less than any other type, with less than 5% of the responses at any benefit level citing them. This would seem to indicate that attempts to convince the public of the economic benefits of local park and recreation services may be misguided, since such a tiny base of the public currently recognizes such benefits. The largest benefit categories are individual ~d social, relating to people rather than to economic or environmental considerations. Also, at the individual and household levels personal benefits were perceived to be greater than those at the community level. Social benefits scored high at all respondent levels (individual, household, and community). 62 Ibid 96 This data indicates that individuals go to local parks and playgrounds both for recreation and as recreation. That is, one may realize a benefit because they go there to exercise or one may view the simple act of going there as a benefit in and of itself. Age 15-20 21-35 36-55 56-65 66-75 76-95 Gender Female Male Personal Individual 35.5 Household 36.5 Conununity 20.4 t9 Ibid 64 1bid Table 26 Respondent Age and Gender Characteristics by Extent of Perceived Benefits to the Community from Local Park Areas (Nationwide Survey)63 Extent of Benefits to the Community (Percent Response) Not at AU Somewhat 8 43 5 35 4 33 10 29 7 23 6 36 6 30 s 37 Table 27 Benefits of Park & Recreation Facilities by Type by Respondent Category (Nationwide Survey)64 A Great Deal 49 60 63 51 70 58 64 58 Perceived Benefit (Percent Response) Environmental Social Economic 20.1 23.5 3.2 12.6 27.4 3.1 12.5 36.9 4.8 97 Facility 17.7 20.4 25.4 To further understand the extent to which people's perceptions of benefits from public parks ~ are tied to their direct use of these parks, the statistical relationships between these variables were examined in the NRPA study. The extent of benefits received at all three levels (individual, household and community) were examined in relation to both personal and household use of parks. At the personal benefit level, the extent of benefit received was strongly linked to the extent of both personal and household use. At the community level, on the other hand, the majority of respondents perceived a great deal of benefits from parks regardless of how much they personally used them. In the Jefferson City Study Area the vast majority of respondents (88.6%) said parks and recreation facilities and programs were extremely (25.3%) or (63.3%) very important to the quality of life in their area. Monetary Value of Local Recreation Services Americans nationwide believe that what is spent of their tax dollar ($45/person annual average -1992 dollars) on their local recreation services is well worth the money. Over three-fourths believed that their own local services were worth $45/year. Only 16% thought they were worth $25/year or less. More than 20% thought they were worth $60-$150. These results indicate that many Americans would be willing to pay more for addi~ional services and since they generally are not opposed to paying user fees, local government would likely be supported in any well planned expansion. As Table 28 indicates, a high degree of benefit to the community was perceived regardless of education or income level. Over 60% of respondents felt that their community as a whole receives a great deal of benefit from their local parks. This perception of benefit was strong regardless of how often the respondent personally used the facilities themselves. The NRP A study also evaluated the extent of the survey respondents perceived level of benefit to household members. Table 29 shows the results of the responses. As the table indicates, women are more likely to perceive that parks benefit their household a great deal (36%) than men (25%). This may be due to the fact that families with children perceive a greater household benefit and female heads of households are more likely to have children than their male counterparts. Some other factors such as level of education or income, suggest that these demographic characteristics are less of a consideration in terms of the importance of benefits. Responses in all levels of education and income indicated that there was somewhat of~ benefit or a great deal of benefit to household members. Not surprisingly, households with children 19 years old and younger felt that there was somewhat or a great deal of benefit. Citizens generally believe that parks offer a great deal of benefit at the community level. Table 30 indicates that belief holds true regardless of their type of residence or the size of their community. 98 Table 28 Respondent Education and Income Characteristics by Extent of Perceived Benefits to the Community from Local Park Areas (Nationwide Survey)65 Extent of Benefits to the Conununity (Percent Response) Not at AU Somewhat A Great Deal Level of Education High School or less 8 34 58 Some college to college grad 4 33 63 More than 4 years of college 2 31 68 Income Less than $20,000 9 31 60 $20,000 to $60,000 4 33 62 More than $60,000 4 37 59 U.S. Trends in Outdoor Recreation Another study conducted at the national level reveals some notable trends in a report by the President's Commission on Americans Outdoors. 66 This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the outdoor recreational needs of the nation in the coming years. In 1985, President Reagan appointed a blue ribbon commission to review the future needs of the American people with respect to their desires and demands for outdoor recreation activities. The President's Commission on Americans Outdoors, its staff, and senior advisors sought to find out "what outdoor recreation means to the American people, and recommend ways to make sure our governments, our communities, and our actions as individuals reflect the values we attach to it. We seek the establishment of enduring processes -private and public -to meet our outdoor recreation needs today and in the future. "67 65 Ibid 66 Report and Recommendations to the President of the United States, President's Commission on Americans Outdoors, December 1986. 67 1bid 99 Table 29 Respondent Demographic Characteristics by Extent of Perceived Household Benefits from Local Park Areas (Nationwide Survey)68 Extent of Benefits to Household Members (Percent Response) Not at AU Somewhat A Great Deal Age 15-20 31 59 10 21-35 16 51 33 36-SS 16 45 39 56-65 33 45 22 66-75 31 40 29 76-95 45 38 17 Gender Female 19 45 36 Male 23 52 25 Level of Education High school or less 28 46 27 Some college to college grad 17 49 35 More than 4 years of college 12 54 34 Income Less than $20,000 28 39 33 $20,000 to $60,000 18 so 32 More than $60,000 18 52 30 Marital Status Single/Divorced/Widowed 26 so 24 Married 18 47 35 Size of Household Single person 45 36 19 Two people 28 49 23 Three to four people 16 49 35 Five or more people 14 46 40 Age of ChDdren in Household 12 and Under 10 43 47 13-19 21 54 25 Both 12 and Under and 13-19 14 48 38 No Children Under Age 20 29 49 23 61 The Benefits of Local Recreation and Park Services: A Nationwide Study of the Perceptions of the American Public; Godbey, Graefe, and James -Pennsylvania State University, 1992. 100 Table 30 Respondent Residence Characteristics by Extent of Perceived Benefits to the Community from Local Park Areas (Nationwide Survey)69 Extent of Benefits to the Community (Percent Response) Not at AU Somewhat A Great Deal Type of Residence Single family home 6 33 61 Town House/ Condominium s 41 55 Apartment 3 27 70 Mobile home 15 33 52 Other 4 38 58 Size of Community Rural area/village under 11 31 59 10,000 Town of 10,000 to 50,000 3 35 61 City of 50,000 to 100,000 2 36 62 Metropolitan area (over 2 34 64 100,000) The President's Commission completed its work in 1988 and the results were published in 1989. The report offers some insight to various aspects of recreation activity patterns and demands of the American population which cities, counties and states shoul.d consider in planning for the future. Some of the highlights of the report are outlined below. • Health is the primary reason that American adults say they engage in outdoor recreation, including stress relief as a means of improving health. Therefore, recreation facilities and programs (both outdoor and indoor) should promote wellness. As our lifestyles have become more physically and mentally demanding and stressful, there will be a continued emphasis on doing things which promote our physical and mental well-being. Recreational activities will continue to play a major part in the national wellness effort. • In terms of summer activities and participation, the fastest growing activities include canoeing, bicycling, attending outdoor cultural events, camping, sailing, hik- 69 1bid 101 ing/backpacking and walking for pleasure. These activities show a trend toward more physically demanding activities. A predominant number of these activities take place on linear corridors such as roads, rivers, sidewalks, trails, greenways, etc. • High on the demand list in the lower midwest region are activities such as swimming, fishing, picnicking, running/jogging, softball/baseball, tennis, and basketball. The ARC telephone survey revealed that in the Jefferson City study area the most popular forms of recreation were picnicking, fishing, walking or hiking, outdoor swimming and golf. The least popular were sailing and hunting for waterfowl. • Overall participation in outdoor recreation activities continues to grow but the rate has leveled off significantly in recent years to a rate that is now about three to four percent annually. This is likely due to the decrease in the rate of population growth as a whole and to the aging of our population. • The elderly segment of our population continues to grow and is expected to constitute between 18 and 24% of total population by 2030. By the year 2000, the median age will be 36. The recreation behavior of the population which was begun before age 40 tends to continue. Therefore, current estimates of elderly leisure patterns depend on the activities which were begun before retirement. Thus, the next two generations of the population will be high users of outdoor recreation facilities in their later years. Also, because less than one out of four Americans waits until age 65 to retire and, because life expectancy is longer, leisure time for older adults is increasing. • The age group which tends to establish the recreation demands for the future is the 25-34 age group. In 1980, this group was up 45% as a proportion of the total population since the 1970's and represented the "baby boom" individuals which had reached this age bracket by 1980. However, between 1980 and 1990, this group leveled substantially in its rate of growth. This age group will continue to set the recreation demand trends for the future but is not likely to grow substantially as a segment of the population. In addition, this group has established a trend of having fewer children and having them toward the later years of the age group. Therefore, they will play a role in establishing the recreation facility demand for the younger segments of the population. • There is a desperate need for information in most cities and counties to plan for recreation facilities. Many communities have never conducted surveys of their residents to determine what user demands/needs are for recreational facilities. Those communities who have surveyed their residents in the past have, in many cases, not repeated the 102 process. Without this data, facilities might be constructed or improved and then may not be fully utilized due to changing activity trends. The President's Commission report implies that defining community recreation needs should be based more on resident desires than applying "standards" (i.e., 1 softball diamond per 3000 population). Therefore, Jefferson City is attempting to fulfill its needs for this critical data and is attempting to tailor its planning for parks and recreation facilities to the needs of its citizens. The demand survey conducted in accord with this recreation planning program was designed to gather the kinds of information identified by the President's Commission. In addition, by stratifying the demand survey sample between the City and the Comprehensive Plan Study Area, the City is also seeking to develop better information about how the use of City facilities are impacted by non-residents . .Jefferson City -Activities and Attitudes The previous sections have principally examined the trends in recreation for the U.S. as a whole. While recreation demand and attitudes do vary somewhat across the country, there are more similarities than differences. However, as noted in the introduction to this chapter, a random sample telephone survey was conducted in order to plan for the specific needs of Jefferson City,. This survey, conducted by Attitude Research Corporation (ARC), involved phone interviews with 405 households residing in Jefferson City as well as 211 households in the unincorporated areas. The Jefferson City Department of Parks and Recreation was not identified as the sponsor of the study. Respondents were questioned as to their attitudes about recreation and about the frequency that they engaged in various recreation activities. The individual respondents were asked not only about their own recreational use patterns, but also about the use patterns of other household members as well as the ages of household members who engaged in those varied activities. Over two-thirds (67 .2%) of the survey area respondents said they used City-owned parks and recreation facilities at least 1 time during an average month. Nearly one-third used City-owned facilities once or twice per month. Another 17.5% used City-owned facilities 3 to 5 times per month and an additional 18.3% used them 6 times or more per month. Only about one-third of the area respondents said they never used park and recreation facilities. With regard to the fees charged for use of City-owned facilities and programs, 91.2% of the respondents in the survey stated that fees were about right (41.6%) or had no opinion (45.1 %). One and one-half percent (1.5%) of the respondents said the fees were too low and only 7.3% stated that they were too high. 103 When asked to compare the importance of park and recreation programs and facilities to other ~ City services, nearly 7 out·of 10 respondents (69.9%) said parks and recreation services were either more important (16.1%) or equal in importance (64.3%) to other City services. Only 10.7% said they were less important and 8.9% expressed no opinion. When asked to compare the quality of city-owned recreational facilities to those that are semi- public or private, 14.4% of area respondents said the city-owned facilities were better, 55.5% said about the same, 9.6% said worse, with 20.5% not knowing. Respondents primary sources for information about city park and recreation programs and facilities were the newspaper (43.5%), word of mouth (26.0%), and the city's park and recreation guide (13.0%). Other sources were radio (5.2%) and local TV (2.4%). More than one-third (35.6%) said that Jefferson City owned a community or recreation center. Just over one-fourth (26.7%) said it did not own such a center, with 38.1% not knowing. When asked how often during an average month they used the city's center for passive forms of recreation, 3.1% said once, 1.6% said twice, 3.1% said three times or more, with 92.2% either not using the center at all or not knowing that a center was in existence. In comparison to the more than two-thirds (67 .2%) of the respondents who said they used park and recreation facilities, only slightly more than one-fourth (27 .3%) said they used a semi-public facility like the YMCA for recreational programs or activities. It is important to note that this factor is taken into account when this and other data from the survey was used to evaluate the demand for facilities to be expanded or constructed by the City. In conducting the survey, data was compiled with respect to the locations/facilities where household members were engaging in each recreation activity about which they were questioned. Some activities, such as tennis and swimming for example, are likely to be conducted at semi-private or private facilities by a certain percentage of the population whether or not the City (or another public entity) had such facilities available. Most (92.0%) respondents reported having no problems gaining access to public recreation facilities in Jefferson City. Among those saying they did have problems, the most frequent type of problem reported was the inability to secure playing time at golf courses. As will be demonstrated later in this chapter where the need for City facilities is discussed, this coincides with the findings of the Flatt survey for golf facilities which was conducted in the summer of 1993. This-also is concurrent with national data which has shown a rapid rise in the popularity of golf particularly in the last 10 to 15 years. In a correlating question, most (88.5%) respondents reported that the types of recreational facilities they desired were available in their area. Among those wishing for additional facilities, the most common responses were golf courses, bike trails and racquetball courts. While ~ 104 f' these responses would appear to place the City's parks and recreation facilities and programs in a very favorable light, they must be taken in context with the data provided by other elements of the survey. As noted above, understanding the response to these later two questions from the survey requires comparison to the results of responses to other survey questions so that the results are not misinterpreted. An obvious assumption would be to conclude that these responses indicate no additional need for recreation facilities. In fact, other data from the survey indicated that the actual and latent demand for facilities is not being met for some of the most popular activities. Correlation of the participation demand survey data with commonly accepted standards for the carrying capacity for the various types of recreation facilities (associated with particular recreation activities) clearly indicates that there are facility needs in Jefferson City. Data presented later in this chapter supports this position. Based on the application of proper carrying capacity standards, simple observation of the way facilities are being used, records kept by the Parks and Recreation Department, and conversations with Department staff, it is clear that many existing facilities are over-utilized and some facilities which are being used are not properly sized to meet the regulation facility sizes for particular activities. Also the City is attempting to meet the demand for certain facilities by cross-use of facilities (for example, using playtields not intended and designed for baseball, softball, or soccer to fulfill the demand for practice fields). In some instances, the City has obtained use of facilities owned by other public or semi-public entities in order to fulflll the demand. Facilities which have too much use increase maintenance costs and negatively impacts the activity experience for the users. A facility which does not meet regulation size can also negatively impact the activity experience and in some instances can create unsafe conditions. This indicates that the Department is using creativity and program scheduling to maximize the efficient use of facilities, which is an indication of good management. However, in some instances, the lack of proper facilities is forcing this "creativity" and causing over-utilization of existing facilities. The proper interpretation of the results of the responses to these questions is that the Parks and Recreation Department is doing a remarkably good job of attempting to meet the demand for recreation facilities with the City's existing facility inventory and those which they can arrange to use that are owned by other entities. It also appears that the Department provides the right facilities and associated programs to support the most popular recreation activities; and thus, residents are finding that the kinds of activities which they want to participate in can be found at City facilities. The responses do not indicate that additional facilities are not needed or that existing facilities should not be improved and upgraded. 105 Determination of Recreational Demands & Needs The following analysis of recreational demand in the Jefferson City planning rea is based, in part, on guidelines established by State and U.S. recreation planning processes. Included are guidelines for "carrying capacity~~, such as the number of people that can use a softball diamond at one time, and "turnover", the number of games that can be played/day on a lighted softball diamond. Some of the guidelines were adjusted to reflect unique circumstances in Jefferson City. Before looking at these guidelines, the following section discusses how recreation standards based on population have been applied in the past. Recreation Standards Since the 1930's there have been standards set by various advisory bodies dealing with recreation. These standards did not deal with such issues as "carrying capacity" (how many square feet of pool was needed per swimmer) but rather made recommendations as to what was the appropriate size of a pool per 1000 residents. Table 31 provides a typical list of recreational facility standards. The usefulness of these standards based on population was that a City which had not yet measured resident demand for services could use this national standard as a guide in creating facilities. Their shortfall is that local conditions vary based on such criteria as climate or per capita income. For example, the demand for swimming in indoor pools in Minneapolis would be greater than in Phoenix. Determination of Demand The method of determining the demand for a particular activity is straight forward. Survey respondents were asked how many times in the past year someone in their household engaged in a particular activity (baseball, fishing, etc.). The demand survey results compiled by ARC were used as the basis and the numbers from the survey sample were then extrapolated to represent the entire population of Jefferson City. From those results an estimate can be derived of the number of times or "activity occasions" that residents engage in specific recreation activities. (See the example below): Person A plays baseball this many times/year 3 Person B plays baseball this many times/year 56 Person C plays baseball this many times/year 0 Number of Activity Occasions of Baseball 59 106 Activity Outdoor Play Picnicking Baseball Softball Volleyball Basketball Handball or Racquetball Tennis Swimming Football Soccer Ice Skating Golf Trails Table 31 Recreational Facility Standards 70 Facility Standard Tot Lots .25 -.SO acres/500 pop. Playgrounds .SO acres/1,000 pop. Playfields 1 acre/1,000 pop. Tables 8 tables/1,000 pop. Shelters 5,000 sq. ft. each park of 10 acres or more Diamond 115,000 pop. Lighted Diamond 1/10,000 pop. Diamond 1/2,500 pop. Lighted Diamond 1/10,000 pop. Court 113,000 pop. Court 111 ,000 pop. Court 115,000 pop. Outdoor Court 6/1,000 pop. Lighted Outdoor Court 1/5,000 pop. Indoor Court 1/50,000 pop. Outdoor Pool 1,200 sq. ft./1,000 pop. (25 meter lanes) Outdoor Wading/Play Pool 1 located at each outdoor pool Indoor Pool 1 pool/25,000 pop. (25 meter lanes) Beach NA Field 1/5,000 pop. Lighted Field 1110,000 pop. Field 1/5,000 pop. Lighted Field 1110,000 pop. Outdoor Rink (Artificial-Light-1 rink/10,000 pop. ed) Outdoor Rink (Natural Ice) NA Indoor Rink 1 rink/50,000 pop. Course (9 or 18 Holes) • 7 holes/1,000 pop. 9 holes/15,000 pop . Nature . 4 mi./1,000 pop. Equestrian .2 mi./1,000 pop. Walking .25 mi./1,000 pop. Bicycle .S mi./1,000 pop. ;o Source: National Recreation and Park Association, Missouri Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan. 107 This method was used to determine the number of activity occasions which represents, "total ~- demand" for a given activity. Residents were also asked whether these activities occurred at public, private or semi-private facilities. If there were 100 activity occasions of baseball and 72% of those occasions occurred at public facilities, that equals a demand of72 baseball occasions at public baseball facilities. This demand was then compared with the capacity of the City's own recreation facilities to determine the need, if any, for additional facilities. Population Prgjections As noted in the introduction to this chapter, among the key data elements used to develop a recreation plan are the most recent population data available for the area being studied, as well as projections of future population. The manner in which the population data is mathematically used in developing the park and recreation facilities needs analysis is discussed in detail in the preceding sections of this chapter. Therefore, the methodology for using the information will not be discussed again here. This section focuses on how the population data was used in more general terms and notes how it will be used in later stages of development of a recreation plan for the City. The data regarding the current population were used to analyze the current need· for park and recreation facilities based on per capita demand information from another source (usually a demand survey such as the one conducted in the Jefferson City area). Once the demand for various types of recreation facilities is determined based on the current population, this information can be compared with the current inventory of facilities. This comparison will then yield information indicating whether there is an excess or a shortage of facilities for supporting recreation activities of a particular type. The data regarding the projected future populati~n were used to analyze the future need for park and recreation facilities based on whatever time frame into upcoming years has been established for the plan. The same methodology discussed above is then used to determine what the facility needs will be if the projected population scenario comes to pass in later years. This chapter has focused on the current needs and supply of facilities. In order to determine the future need for park and recreation facilities, it will be necessary to establish goals and objectives with the City's parks and recreation department staff and the Parks and Recreation Commission. It is also important to have a sense of the directions which the City wants to pursue with respect to annexation. If some parts of the Study Area are annexed in favor of others, the potential population growth scenarios may be different. Therefore, the facility needs may be different as well. In light of this need for further input, there has been no attempt at this time to apply the projected population data to the demand data and calculate a resultant facility needs scenario. Nonetheless, population 108 "' projections have been made for the comprehensive planning program. These projections are briefly outlined below for the benefit of the reader of this chapter and as a prelude to the narrat-ive, contained in Part lll of this document, describing the recreation plan. r' .. The basis used in determining the existing needs data was the 1990 Census of Population for Jefferson City and the census tracts comprising the Study Area. Projections of future population, presented in Chapter 1, were based on physical and subjective evaluation of the planning area's historical growth patterns. This resulted in the development of a "moderate .. population projection which reflects the results of these evaluations. For the purposes of making land use and recreation facilities planning decisions, this moderate growth scenario will be used in developing the Plan. The current and projected population for the City and the Study Area are outlined in Table 32. The table depicts the data for the Study Area, the City, and the unincorporated portion of the Study Area and segregates the population according to the two age groups for which the demand survey data was gathered. Projected population is shown for the years 2000 and 2010. The table demonstrates that the unincorporated area is projected to grow almost 19% in population between 1990 and 2000. In this same time frame the City is expected to grow by only 2%. By 2010 the unincorporated area is expected to grow 39% from its 1990 population, while the City's population would only increase by approximately 4% in this same period. 1990 Population Study Area 71 51,996 Jefferson City 35,481 Unincorporated Study Area 16,515 Table 32 Population Projections Jefferson City vs. Unincorporated Area 1990 Persons <18 2000 'IJ Change Yrs. Old Population From 1990 24.1" 55,800 7.3% 21.6% 36,200 2.0% 29.4% 19,600 18.6% 2010 %Change Population From 1990 59,900 15.2% 36,900 3.9% 23,000 39.3% This difference in growth rate is important in at least two respects. First, in the case of any future annexation and since the population growth is almost entirely in the unincorporated portions of the Study Area, new facility construction may. need to occur outside the City • s current corporate limits in the area which is annexed. Secondly, the unincorporated portions of the Study Area have a different type of household makeup which has important implications for recreation planning. Specifically, these households have a higher proportion of persons under the age of 18 (29.4%) 71 Study area population figures from Table 16 (Moderate Projection). 109 compared to households within the City limits (21.6% ). This higher percentage of school age children in the unincorporated area would indicate that future facility capital improvement programs which would be made in any annexed area should place a strong emphasis on facilities which serve families with children 18 and younger. Based on the demand survey data, facilities to support families and children would include things such as ice rinks, picnic tables and shelters, playground equipment, softball and baseball diamonds, and soccer fields. Determining Capacity of City Public Facilities While identifying the total demand of residents for a specific activity is straight forward, identifying the capacity of a facility is more involved. Issues that need to be considered include the number of persons that can use a facility at one time, rate of "tumoveru per day (i.e., how many baseball games can be played per day on a field), the number of days in a typical season for baseball, and so forth. With this information one can identify the capacity or occasions that can be serviced at a facility during the normal activity season. Recreation Patterns in .Jefferson City ·~·.·. '-·:) The Recreation Demand Survey conducted by Attitude Research Corporation contains a wealth ~ of information about the recreation activity participation and attitudes of Jefferson City and Study Area residents. The summary reports and detailed survey cross-tabulations contain nearly 1000 pages of information which resulted from the stratified random sample telephone survey of 605 City and Study Area households. For the City Parks and Recreation Department Staff, these documents will prove to be very useful in many respects. However, for the purposes of developing a recreation plan for Jefferson City, only certain data from the survey was used in developing the needs analysis. Thus, this chapter discusses and highlights only a small part of the information which is available from this effort. Due to the size of the documents which comprise the survey results, it is not anticipated that the City will print copies of this material for distribution. These documents will be available in the Parks and Recreation Department offices for anyone who wishes to review them. In addition to the citation of some of the survey data in the preceding sections of this chapter, the following section discusses the key findings in the process of determining the recreation demand, facility inventory, and facilities needs analysis which utilized some of the demand survey and facilities inventory data. Recreation Participation and Aee Recreation requires leisure time and since youth (18 years and younger) have more leisure time than adults, it would seem logical that youths would use recreation proportionately more. In this 110 instance what would seem logical does not prevail. The Jefferson City Recreation Demand Survey indicated that, of the activities under study here, adults and youth use facilities fairly equally, relative to their numbers. Adults, who comprised 76% of the population, were the participants in these activities approximately 66% of the time. Adults were the majority of the users for most of the individual activities. In fact, the only activities where youths were the major users were on playgrounds, ice skating, and using picnic tables and shelters. Facility Use Jefferson City area residents use a variety of recreation facilities, both City-owned and those that are not. The residents not only have differing preferences in the type of recreation they enjoy, but they also have differing preferences in terms of whether they prefer public, semi-private or private facilities. For example, in Jefferson City the vast majority of softball play (80%) or use of playground equipment (95%) is at public recreation facilities (measured in time spent). Activities that are not typically done at public facilities include indoor walking or jogging ( 49% ), weight training (37%) and indoor swimming (45%). Another issue that comes into play in determining facility use and capacity is the multi-use character of some facilities. For example, an outdoor playtield can be used for soccer, or softball if soccer or softball fields are being used to capacity. This is discussed further in the Multi-Use Facilities section later in this chapter. Current Facility Needs Residents of Jefferson City and the Study Area have recreation activity needs that can be met through a variety of facilities. The purpose of the Recreation Plan is to determine how those needs can be met. Part of this process involved looking at the demand by City residents alone compared with the City-owned facilities that were designed to satisfy that demand. The needs of the planning area, as a whole, were also stu~lied. For purposes of analysis, the planning area was studied as one entity so that data could be viewed and evaluated and a needs analysis made based on a comparison to the incorporated area. The purpose of this treatment was to estimate the needs for Jefferson City should a portion or all of the unincorporated planning area be annexed into the City at a future date. Whether or not any future incorporation was to take place is beyond the scope of this chapter, however, it is useful to know the recreational needs to determine what facilities might have to be constructed if the city were to annex significant portions of the unincorporated Study Area. 111 In order to review and analyze the recreation activity demand and facility needs of the City and the Study Area, the data contained in detailed working tables used to calculate these factors was summarized into two more simplified tables. Tables 33 and 34 depict various key data elements from the needs analysis calculation methodology. For each type of recreation facility (which is associated with a particular recreation activity) the tables show the following data: • Total Activity Occasion Demand to be met at Public Facilities; • The Number of Existing Facilities; • Total Activity Occasion Capacity of Existing Facilities; • The Unmet Demand (indicated by parentheses) or Excess Capacity Expressed in Activity Occasions; and • The Unmet Demand (indicated by parentheses) or Excess Capacity Expressed in Number of Facilities. Table 33 depicts this information for the Jefferson City Study Area and Table 34 shows this information for only the City portion of the Study Area. It needs to be mentioned that certain assumptions must be made in order to assign numbers to the items listed above. For example, the "instant capacity" of an ice rink (the number of people that can skate at one time) is subjective but, for purposes of analysis a standard must be assigned. In some cases, math calculations are made which may conflict with programmatic needs in the real world. Two important factors should be noted about Tables 33 and 34. In Table 33, the inventory basis (the existing facilities shown in the column entitled •Number) for the total Study Area includes facilities of all types (e.g. public, semi-public and private). Therefore not all of these facilities are available at an affordable charge to the general public. In this same table, the basis for the demand, shown in the column entitled "Total Activity Occasions of Demand for Facilities," represents the total number of activity occasions for each recreation activity derived from the demand survey. Thus, the last column on the right, entitled •Excess Capacity or (Unmet Demand) in Number of Facilities, " indicates the need for recreation facilities in the Study Area without regard for the provider entity. Table 34 represents the data for Jefferson City only and uses a different basis for the demand and inventory data which derives the needs analysis. In this table, only those facilities which are owned by the City are shown in the inventory basis (the existing facilities shown in the column entitled ,Number). The data in the column entitled, "Total Activity Occasions of Demand for Public Facilities,, shows only that portion of the total demand which needs to be met at publicly owned facilities. Therefore, the data indicated in the far right column, entitled ,Excess Capacity or (Unmet Demand in Number of Facilities," reflects only the need for recreation facilities necessary to support City resident demand. 112 Facility Playgrounds Playfields Picnic Tables Picnic Shelters Baseball/Softball Diamonds Volleyball Courts Basketball Courts Handball/ Racquetball Courts Tennis Courts Swimming Pools Football Fields Soccer Fields Ice Skating Rinks Golf Courses Nature Trails (in miles) Multi-Purpose Trails (in miles) Table 33 Recreation Facilities Needs Analysis Jefferson City Study Area Existing Facilities Total Activity Occasions of Capacity in Excess Capacity or Demand for Activity (Unmet Demand) in Facilities Nmnber Occasions Activity Occasions 386,399 28 462,000 75,601 311,487 22 946,000 634,513 238,224 291 279,360 41,136 157,920 11 105,600 (52,320) 539,700 26 564,440 24,740 113,846 20 230,400 116,554 173,040 31 305,400 132,360 99,456 16 99,360 (96) 123,480 39 193,320 69,840 561,845 8 614,640 52,795 59,220 8 33,660 (25,560) 63,252 19 79,200 15,948 116,424 1 270,000 153,576 397,824 2 172,800 (225,024) 272,664 14 Miles 248,864 (23,800) 189,504 9 Miles 108,000 (81,540) (cycling only) Excess Capacity or (Unmet Demand) in No. of Facilities 5 18 43 (6) 0 8 11 72 0 13 oTJ (3)'4 4 1 (2.6) (1.3) (7) 72 There exists an excess of basketball courts but the restrictions involving the use of many of the existing basketball facilities makes them unusable much of the time for public play. See Basketball Courts later in this section. TJ Swimming pool size varies gready. The data displayed in this table makes no distinction between the demand for outdoor versus indoor facilities. See Swimming Pools later in this section. 74 Football is often played on multi-purpose practice fields. See Multi-Use Facilities. 113 Table 34 Recreation Facility Needs Analysis Jefferson City, Missouri Existing Facilities Total Activity Occasions of Capacity in Excess Capacity or Demand for Activity (Unmet Demand) in Facility Facilities Nmnber Occasions Activity Occa5ions Playgrounds 214,709 12 198,000 (16,709) Playfields!Practice 163,755 1 43,000 (120,755) Fields Picnic Tables 155,232 111 106,560 (48,672 Picnic Shelters 102,144 s 96,000 (6,144) Baseball/Softball 258,419 12 245,280 23,777 Diamonds Volleyball Courts 41,463 1 9,600 31,863 Basketball Courts 66,679 5 30,000 (36,679) Handball/ 29,474 4 23,040 (6,434) Racquetball Courts Tennis Courts 66,407 11 59,400 (7,007) Swimming Pools 118,445 2 320,000 201,555 Football Fields 24,570 0 0 (24,570) Soccer Fields 25,805 2 11,880 (13,925) Ice Skating Rinks 68,040 1 78,000 10,000 Golf Courses 185,808 1 86,400 (99,408) Nature Trails 153,292 0 Miles 177,760 24,468 (in miles) Multi-Purpose 119,448 3.2 Miles 38,400 81,048 Trails (in miles) 15 See Basketball Courts, later in this section. 76 See Swimming Pools, later in this section. 77 See Multi-Use Facilities, later in this section. 114 Excess Capacity or (Unmet Demand) in No. of Facilities (1) (3) (SO) 0 1 3 (6)75 (1) (2) 076 (6)77 (2) 0 (1) 1 (5) ~ \ The following narrative provides an analysis of the needs of both City residents and residents of the Study Area. Specific recreation activities and their associated facilities are grouped in this discussion according to the type of facility where a given activity takes place. Mention should also be made of the manner in which the facility need is expressed in the tables. The unmet demand (shortage) or excess capacity for facility need is expressed in the tables and noted in the following discussion in terms of the number of facilities. This number is based on the activity occasions carrying capacity of the type of facility required for the particular activity involved. In some cases, this yields numbers of facilities which are shown in figures with decimal extensions. Thus, the tables or the discussion may show a need for 2.6 golf courses. Obviously, the City or other entities can't practically build two 18-hole golf courses one of which has an additional number of holes which are the equivalent of six-tenths of a course. In developing the actual recreation facilities plan for the City, decisions will have to be made about what facilities to build or expand. These partial facility needs have not been rounded upward at this time in order that they may provide indicators at later planning stages. For example, in our golf course scenario the data suggests that there is a need for at least two golf courses to be built to serve the demand indicated in the Study Area. The additional .6 facility need might be satisfied by building an additional nine holes at one new facility. Therefore, these figures representing partial facility needs have been retained without rounding up or down so that later decisions regarding the construction of facilities can take these partial needs into account. In reviewing the data presented in Tables 33 and 34, further notation should be made about the use of this data in developing the Parks and Recreation Plan for the City. The mathematical calculations used to develop the need analysis results in output which is only as good as the data which is input and is influenced by the assumptions which are made and current usage patterns of existing facilities. Some of the factors which affect the data output are discussed below. The City staff had some difficulty in receiving quality data from respondents to the recreation facility inventory. Some of the data had to be rechecked and in some instances, had to be re- inventoried by City staff. An attempt to cross-check the inventory data with that which had been compiled in the 1990 Missouri SCORP proved to be useless, since gross errors were found to exist in the data which had been supplied by the State from this work. In addition, in some cases certain judgments had to be made as to how certain facilities were classified. Certain biases and judgments are also inherent in the data which evolved from the demand survey. In spite of attempts to ensure that the structure of the questions regarding recreation activity participation patterns would evolve unbiased and accurate data, it is likely that some error exists in 115 the data resulting from the different ways in which the respondents might have estimated the ~ recreation activity patterns for themselves and their families. In light of these comments it is important to understand that the needs for recreation facilities presented in Tables 33 and 34 should not be taken too literally. It is certain that these tables present a more accurate reflection of the potential needs of the residents of the City and the Study Area than would be derived using more abbreviated methods based on generalized and generic "community" data compiled by others. On the other hand, the actual parks and recreation facilities which are ultimately recommended in the Parks and Recreation Plan may differ in some instances from the more mathematically-derived evaluation of potential facilities need which is discussed in the subsequent pages of this chapter. Sin1le-Purpose Facilities The Jefferson City Study Area, as a whole, generally has the ability to meet the identified demand for recreation facilities. Since this part of the discussion of facility needs will focus on single-purpose facilities, it is important to first define what this term means. Some recreation facilities have the capability to support oiily one type of recreation activity. Single-purpose facilities include, tennis courts, playgrounds, picnic tables and shelters, handball/racquetball courts, swimming pools, ice rinks, golf courses and nature trails. For example, ice skating facilities are normally-single purpose facilities since ice skating is done at ice rinks, and ice rinks would not be used for other activities besides ice skating (although some outdoor ice skating rinks are converted for use as roller skating rinks in the summer). In contrast, football, for example, will be discussed under the Multi-Use Facility section. This is because football play can occur on fields which are also used for other activities such as soccer. This is particularly the case in Jefferson City where football and soccer activities are conducted on the same field in many instances. The physical constraints of the topography within much of the area bounded by the City limits makes it difficult to find land suitable for conducting the activities. Table 33 shows that there is an unmet demand or shortage for 6 picnic shelters, 2.6 golf courses and 1.3 miles of nature/interpretive trails. Conversely, the area has a surplus of facilities including playgrounds, playfields, and tennis courts. As noted above, bear in mind the inventory basis depicted in this table includes existing facilities in the Study Area owned by all types of providers (public, semi-public, and private). Therefore, not all of the facilities may be available to the general public and those which are may not be available at an affordable charge. 116 Table 34 outlines the unmet demand and excess capacity for City-owned facilities. Please note that the activity occasion demand figures on this table represent the demand of City residents only. Also, the inventory basis for this table represents only those facilities which are owned by the City. Since many City facilities do not have a method of controlling access, these facilities are being used by residents and non-residents alike. In effect, taxes collected from City residents are being used to "subsidize", or pay for facilities used by non-residents. At the same time, some facilities such as softball diamonds generate fees through organized league play which partially recover maintenance and program operating expenses. Table 34 demonstrates a need for 2 additional tennis courts. However, based on input from the City Department of Parks and Recreation staff, the shortage occurs primarily on weekends, so a recommendation for construction of additional courts is not being made at this time. Analysis of City-owned facilities reveals that the City is in need of 1 additional playground and 50 picnic tables. Of course, picnic table demand could be met by construction of additional shelters and the associated tables (8 tables per shelter). The City is in need of 1 more racquetball court and the equivalent of 1.2 golf courses. Demand for golf is described in more detail under its own section later in this chapter. (' Multi-Use Facilities " ' The Jefferson City Study Area is fortunate in that it has facilities ~hich are multiple use, and therefore, can be used interchangeably for certain activities (if, in some instances, regulation facility sizes or field layouts can be ignored). For example, the unmet demand for youth baseball can be met on softball fields, if activity occasion demand for softball compared against the carrying capacity of the inventory of existing softball facilities shows that there is excess capacity for these facilities. In fact, Jefferson City uses these facilities interchangeably. Also, the City is using playfields owned by other entities to provide space for practice softball and baseball games for its youth baseball program. The City needs 25 playfield/practice fields to meet this demand, therefore, the number of playfields needed as displayed on these tables is misleading. Another such example is the ability to satisfy unmet demand for soccer fields at surplus playfields. Obviously, each situation where use of facilities for multiple activities is concerned must be evaluated more specifically than the calculation methodology used herein would suggest. When it is time to devise an actual plan for the expansion/addition of existing facilities in the later stages of this planning program, a variety of factors will have to be considered. For example, whether or 117 not there is really an excess of facilities to support a particular activity is related to many factors ~ including the size of the facilities under consideration and where they are located. The analysis of football activity for the Study Area reveals a special situation. This analysis concluded that the area was in need of additional football fields, however, it is believed that some of this need may be artificial. The way in which the household respondent answered this question was probably more dependent than that for many other activities on what they interpreted to be playing football. Because football play can occur on practice fields, or even on vacant lots, the activity occasions of demand for this activity may be somewhat overstated. Based on the data compiled in the needs analysis, for some activities the Study Area has a surplus of facilities. The recreation facilities associated with particular activities which have surplus facilities includes playgrounds, picnic tables and tennis courts, among others. The area is in need of picnic shelters, indoor pool space, golf courses and nature trails. Golf and nature· trails will be discussed further under separate golf course needs and trails sections which follow later in this document. The City of Jefferson, in general, has more unmet demand for facilities relative to the study area. Note that for purposes of reviewing unmet demand at the City level, we are concerned with demand for public facilities. As relates to the Study Area, no determination has been made as to ~ whether or not demand for public fac~ities should be met by the City as opposed to Cole County or Callaway County or some other public entity. Some further evaluation of this issue can be made once the City's potential annexation interests are determined. Also, unmet demand for 6 football fields can be partially met on surplus playfields. Again, certain kinds of play such as "touch" football doesn't require a formal field. As Table 34 indicates, the City is also in need of a playground, picnic tables, racquetball and tennis courts and soccer· fields. Swimming Pools The Study Area and the City have a surplus of outdoor pool space based on the needs analysis. Most of this capacity can be met by the large public pools owned by the City, but there are also several private pools in the area. One of these pools is an indoor facility owned by the YMCA (the City does not own an indoor pool). Based on the survey data, standards applied in the demand calculation process, and the heavy usage of this facility, a need for additional indoor pool space for Jefferson City residents is derived. However, only about half of the activity occasions for swimming in general occur at public facilities and the rest of the demand is fulfilled at semi-public or private facilities. Thus, where swimming is concerned, only about half of the overall demand by City residents needs to be met by the City. This has been traditionally true for swimming as a recreation 118 ~ activity and has been supported by other recreation demand surveys which have been done in the Midwest over the years. In this instance the survey data and demand calculations are suggesting that there is demand for indoor swimming facilities which is not being met and which should be met by the City. However, this demand would only support about half of the carrying capacity of one indoor pool. Therefore, it is not feasible to build such a facility at this time. This is particularly true given the apparent excess capacity of outdoor pools within the Study Area and the City. With a combination of actual population growth and annexation, it might be feasible for the City at some point in the future to justify the construction of an indoor pool. Although, the City must be mindful of the typically higher cost of construction, operation, and maintenance of such a facility (compared to outdoor pools) and would need to recognize the likely need to charge larger fees for its use by residents and non-residents alike. Basketball Courts Analysis of basketbail demand in the Study Area indicates there is a surplus of courts. However, most of these courts are located in public schools at the elementary and secondary level. These facilities are often unavailable for use by adults and furthermore may be undesirable for adult use because they may not be regulation size. In reviewing City-owned facilities, there appears to be an unmet demand for courts. However, it is difficult to determine what constituted "public" demand for facilities because the survey questions defined public facilities as those owned by City, County, or State government. Survey respondents may not have interpreted play at schools as public use based on this definition. On the other hand, there may be significant unmet demand because many basketball courts are located in school gymnasiums. These gymnasiums are usually multi-purpose facilities with other activities (such as volleyball), which consume some of their use and thus may diminish their ability to provide activity occasions capacity for basketball. The Jefferson City Study Area has approximately 9 miles of multi-purpose trails for use by cyclists and walkers. It is difficult to determine the capacity of activity occasions for a multi-use path because the number of people who can safely utilize one mile of trail varies greatly depending on the specific activity. For example, cyclists require much more room to move than walkers or joggers. Therefore, an activity occasion for cycling requires much more space than an activity occasion for walking. Even though in our survey there were approximately 2 occasions of walking for every 1 119 occasion of cycling, cyclists still require more trail miles than walkers. Because of this dynamic, it is best to build multi-use paths sufficient to meet cycling demand by itself. In this scenario, there will automatically be enough path to meet the demand of walkers, assuming that the path is wide enough to handle 2 lanes of cyclists and 2 lanes of walkers simultaneously. Based on this analysis, the study area needs an additional 7 miles of multi-use paths. In Jefferson City there are 5 miles of public multi-use paths, including City owned miles and mileage that is part of the KATY Trail within the City limits. Jefferson City is in need of 5 more miles of multi-use trails. However, if one considers that 1.8 of the 5 miles of existing path belongs to the KA TY Trail which is inaccessible to the majority of Jefferson City residents except by car (most residents must transport their bicycles by car across the Highway 54 bridge to access the trail) a case could be made that more than 5 miles is needed. This additional need could be met by implementing recommendations of the Greenway Plan which is discussed later in this section. Golf Course Needs Some residents cited overcrowded golf facilities as being a problem. A study of golf needs in the Jefferson City area was conducted by Flatt Golf Services in 1993. The preliminary findings of this Study indicated that any new public golf course or any new golf holes should possess certain characteristics. For example, the course should be attractive to all levels of golfers and provide for 4-5 sets of tees on each hole. It should be 4800-6800 yards and should have a fully automatic irrigation system. Course difficulty should be moderate and teeing areas should vary to offer challenges to all level of players. It should include a clubhouse with a snack bar/dining area and have small meeting rooms for tournaments or special events. The City is ·considering several options in dealing with golf demand. Those include developing a new 18-hole course within Binder Park and/or acquiring property adjacent to the existing course to build a par 3, nine-hole course. Given the high demand for golf in the overall Study Area, it is likely that at some time in the future private investors may also build an additional course if land is available. 78 A successful new municipal public golf course in Jefferson City will need to optimize revenue opportunities and this will necessitate it being operated differently than most of the existing public golf courses in the area. The most evident differences ~ould be that typical annual green fees, membership fees or discount passes should not be offered, daily green fees will need to be higher and private riding golf carts will not be permitted. Aggressive, professional management will operate the golf pro shop, driving range and concessions as profit centers and fee structures will be evaluated and '78 Golf Feasibility Smdy for the City of Jefferson, Missouri-Flatt Golf Services, August 1993. 120 f' modified frequently to insure the revenue flow necessary to sustain the operation, maintenance and debt payments. 79 Other Park and Recreation Facility Needs In 1991, the Jefferson City Department of Parks and Recreation Advisory Committee recommended development of a greenway network. A "greenway" is land that typically runs along a linear corridor such as a creek, a river or floodplain, a ridge top, or abandoned rail right-of-way. Ideally, a greenway plan creates a system of such corridors in a coordinated fashion so that, to the extent possible, residents of a community are within easy access to a greenway and can enjoy its recreational benefits such as walking or cycling. In addition, a greenway can provide a buffering effect between land uses and aid in ensuring that open space is provided throughout the community. In order to implement the greenway system envisioned, the Committee determined that the goals of the program should include: • identifying how such a network can benefit the community; • i~corporating greenway planning into other planning functions; and • completing a demonstration project. The Committee report suggested that the greenway network should link and provide access to city parks, schools, the riverfront, the Capitol, the Moreau River, the KATY Trail and places where people work. The committee recommended that the city should proceed with a pilot project in Washington Park to be constructed between Dunklin and Ohio Street. It also recommended completion of a greenway from the Missouri River through Washington Park to Fairgrounds Road. If the Greenway Plan is viewed in the light of the needs analysis for trail facilities, the demand and resulting needs data would suggest that an extensive greenway network is not necessary to fulfill the demand either in the Study Area or the City. However, if the KA TY Trail is taken out of consideration in the inventory or its heavy non-resident use is taken into consideration, a greenway system such as that envisioned by the Committee continues to be a valid concept. In addition, it should also be noted that the facility needs analysis does not take into account the significant enhancement such a system would provide for the City's parks facilities. In developing the recreation plan, the Greenway System Plan will need to be considered along with the need for other facilities which are required to fulfill unmet demand for other activities. 19 1bid 121 An important element of the Jefferson City Comprehensive Plan process has to do with the development plan for Adrian Island. This plan was completed in 1990 and is known as the Master Plan for the Deborah Cooper Riverfront Park on Adrian Island. The major design elements incorporated into the final master plan include: • two pedestrian overpasses to the island; • a river' s-edge pedestrian promenade with various activity nodes; • recreation open space; • a grass amphitheater; • a dredged harbor and excursion boat mooring; • a visitor concession building; and • a nature/bicycle trail. Review of the Plan docu~ent suggests that a significant amount of the recommended development on the island would be subject to flooding. In recreation planning it has often been a planning tenet that flood plain areas have ideal development potential for park and recreation facilities. This tenet has been based on the notion that if the facilities developed are not of a major nature involving buildings or other extensive facilities that occasional flooding would be "acceptable". As can be seen from the list above, the Adrian Island plan contains some costly and significant improvements (estimated to cost $7-8 million), some of which are necessary simply to provide access ~ to the island. As a result of the floods of 1993 throughout the midwest but particularly in Missouri, the advisability of development of any kind in a flood plain is being re-thought. In addition, city Parks and Recreation operations are typically strapped for operating, maintenance, and new facility development monies. Jefferson City's situation is not an exception to this condition. In many parts of the State (particularly in the St. Louis area), expenditures for cleaning up and repairing park and recreation facilities which were located in the Mississippi and Missouri floodplains amounted to millions of dollars. In light of these factors, it may be prudent for the City to review the Adrian Island plan to determine if the development program continues to be valid in its current form (or if development is desirable at all). This _review should be carried out before the recreation plan is finalized so that a determination can be made as to what extent park and recreation use of the island is appropriate, and more importantly, whether or not facilities can be developed which will serve any of the recreation facility needs of the community. 122