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HomeMy Public PortalAbout10 October 03, 2003 SR-91 Advisory&6(e(eq STATE ROUTE 91 ADVISORY COMMITTEE TOE CFOME 2/ 1\\ SEP 3 0 2003 TRANSPORTATION OMMISSION Date: Time: Where: Friday, October 3, 2003 9:00 A.M. Eagle Glen Golf Club Meeting Facilities Pinnacle Room 1800 Eagle Glen Parkway Corona, California 92883-0620 ADVISORY COMMITTEE Michael Ward Tim Keenan Ron Roberts Chair Committee Member Committee Member John Tavaglione Shirley McCracken Robert Schiffner Vice -Chair Committee Member Committee Member Bob Buster Committee Member Bill Campbell Committee Member Jeff Miller Committee Member Miguel A. Pulido Committee Member Anne Mayer Cindy Quon Caltrans Caltrans Gwenn Norton -Perry SANBAG For further information, please call Olga Gonzalez, OCTA Clerk of the Board, (714) 560-5666. N4 -.33.a AGENDA State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting Eagle Glen Golf Club Meeting Facilities Pinnacle Room 1800 Eagle Glen Parkway Corona, California 92883-0620 October 3, 2003 at 9:00 a.m. Any person with a disability who requires a modification or accommodation in order to participate in this meeting should contact the OCTA Clerk of the Board, telephone (714) 560-5630, no less than two (2) business days prior to this meeting to enable OCTA to make reasonable arrangements to assure accessibility to this meeting. Agenda Descriptions Agenda descriptions are intended to give notice to members of the public of a general summary of items of business to be transacted or discussed. The posting of the recommended actions does not indicate what action will be taken. The Committee may take any action which it deems to be appropriate on the Agenda item and is not limited in any way by the notice of the recommended action. Public Comments on Agenda Items Members of the public wishing to address the Committee regarding any item appearing on the Agenda may do so by completing a Speaker Card and submitting it to the Clerk of the Board. Speakers will be recognized by the Chairman at the time the Agenda item is to be considered. A speaker's comments shall be limited to three (3) minutes. Call to Order Pledge of Allegiance Committee Member Keenan Consent Calendar (Items 1 thru 3) 1. Approval of Minutes Of the July 11, 2003, meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee. AGENDA 2. 91 Express Lanes Status Report Ellen S. Burton, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes Overview A status report on the 91 Express Lanes is prepared monthly for Orange County Transportation Authority Board of Directors' review. The report highlights operations, maintenance activities, finance, and external communications. Year-to-date traffic, revenue and financial information through July 31, 2003, is provided. Recommendation Receive and file the 91 Express Lanes Status Report for the period ending July 31, 2003. 3. 91 Express Lanes Corona Customer Service Center Relocation Ellen S. Burton, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes Overview The 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center is relocated to a new facility located at 2275 Sampson Street, Suite 100, in Corona. Staff is preparing an open house/ceremonial grand opening for October 28, 2003. Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. Regular Calendar 4. Draft Final 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Ellen S. Burton, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes Overview The Orange County Transportation Authority is contracting with Vollmer Associates LLP to develop a long term traffic and revenue projection for the 91 Express Lanes based on socioeconomic factors as well as assumptions about planned improvements and toll policies. When finalized, the traffic and revenue study will be included with the refinancing documents for the 91 Express Lanes. Page 2 AGENDA 4. (Continued) Recommendations Receive and file the Draft Final 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study. 5. Riverside County to Orange County Major Investment Study Kurt Brotcke, OCTA/Cathy Bechtel, RCTC Overview The Orange County Transportation Authority, the Riverside County Transportation Commission, and the Transportation Corridor Agencies will soon begin a study of multi -modal alternatives for improving travel between the two counties. An update on the project scope, cost, and schedule will be presented by staff (Attachment). Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. 6. California High -Speed Rail Update Kia Mortazavi, OCTA Overview Various planning and conceptual engineering efforts are underway to implement high-speed rail systems in southern California and Orange County. An update on these efforts impacting the Inland Empire and Orange County is provided for the Committee's review. Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. Page 3 AGENDA 7. Implementation Status of Express Bus Service from Riverside County into Orange County Tom Franklin/Richard A. Teichert, OCTA Overview The Orange County Transportation Authority is continuously exploring innovative transportational programs connecting the Inland Empire residents working in Orange County. The congestion levels on the Riverside Freeway/State Route 91 are expected to worsen as development continues in the Inland Empire and the demand for employment in Orange County increases. The expansion of Express Bus Service is one of the transit components in minimizing the congestion on the eight -lane Riverside Freeway/State Route 91. Recommendation Receive and file as information item 8. Update on State Route 91 Construction Projects Caltrans District 8 and 12 A Caltrans representative will report on the status of current State Route 91 construction projects. Other Matters 9. General Manager's Report 10. Committee Members' Reports 11. Public Comments At this time, members of the public may address the Committee regarding any items within the subject matter jurisdiction of the Committee, but no action may be taken on off -Agenda items unless authorized by law. Comments shall be limited to three (3) minutes per speaker, unless different time limits are set by the Chairman subject to the approval of the Committee Members. Page 4 AGENDA 12. Adjournment The next meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee will be held at 9:00 a.m. on December 5, 2003, at Orange County Transportation Authority Administrative Offices at 600 South Main Street, First Floor - Room 103/104 Orange, California 92863-1584. Page 5 • • Item 1 MINUTES State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting July 11, 2003 Committee Members Present Mike Ward. Chairman John Tavaglione, Vice Chairman Bob Buster Bill Campbell Tim Keenan Jeff Miller Shirley McCracken Miguel A. Pulido Ron Roberts Anne Mayer, Caltrans Cindy Quon, Caltrans Gwenn Norton -Perry, SANBAG Committee Members Absent Robert Schiffner Ameal Moore, Alternate Call to Order OCTA Staff Present Richard J. Bacigalupo Ellen S. Burton Kennard R. Smart James S. Kenan RCTC Staff Present Eric Haley Steve Debaun John Standiford Naty Kopenhaver The July 11, 2003, meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee was called to order at 9:00 a.m. at the Pinnacle Room of Eagle Glen Golf Club Meeting Facilities, 1800 Eagle Glen Parkway, Corona, California. Chairman Ward called the meeting to order. Pledge of Allegiance Chairman Ward led the Committee and the audience in the Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America. Consent Calendar Chairman Ward announced that all matters on the Consent Calendar are to be approved in one motion unless a Committee member or a member of the public requests separate action on a specific item. The Chairman asked if there were any requests to pull any of the items from the Consent Calendar for consideration. Committee Member Campbell pulled Item 2 from the Consent Calendar for Committee consideration. A motion was made by Committee Member Miller, seconded by Committee Member Keenan, and declared passed unanimously by the Committee members present, to approve Consent Calendar Item 1. Committee Member Pulido was not present to vote on the Consent Calendar items. Page 1 of 5 MINUTES State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting July 11, 2003 1. Approval of Minutes A motion was made by Committee Member Miller, seconded by Committee Member Keenan, and declared passed unanimously by the Committee members present, to approve the Minutes of the June 13, 2003, meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee. Committee Member Pulido was not present to vote on this item. 2. 91 Express Lanes Monthly Report Committee Member Campbell pulled this item from the Consent Calendar to request information from staff regarding the Year to Date variances as set forth on Page 9 of the 91 Express Lanes Status Report for May 2003. A motion was made by Committee Member Campbell, seconded by Committee Member Keenan, and declared passed unanimously by the Committee members present, to receive and file the 91 Express Lanes Status Report for the period ending May 31, 2003, as an information item. Committee Member Pulido was not present to vote on this item. Regular Calendar 3. Recommended 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy Ellen S. Burton, General Manager of the 91 Express Lanes, presented a report on the proposed 91 Express Lanes' Toll Policy. Ms. Burton stated the toll policy supports improving mobility between Orange and Riverside Counties, is committed to putting customers first, operates the toll lanes effectively and efficiently, and ensures the toll road will remain a viable enterprise. Ms. Burton discussed the refinancing of the taxable debt and the need for a toll policy in order to project traffic and revenue figures. Ms. Burton discussed the goals of the toll policy, presented the proposed policy, and explained several definitions contained therein. A copy of Ms. Burton's presentation is on file in the Office of the OCTA Clerk of the Board. The Committee discussed the proposed debt restructure and the application of savings from the refinance to make improvements to the corridor. The Committee also discussed the need to have a toll policy in place to satisfy bond holders and possibly achieve a higher bond rating during the refinance. Page 2 of 5 MINUTES State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting July 11, 2003 The Committee expressed interest in pursuing a dynamic pricing system and implementing such a system at a future date. The Committee noted potential impacts to east/west arterials which could result from implementation of the proposed toll policy. Staff explained the goal is get customers to use the lanes during other time periods. Jeffrey Bennett, Mayor of the Corona, agreed with the need for a toll policy but did not support a toll increase. He noted the State Route 91 will never be able to accommodate the traffic generated by the region. Mr. Bennett stated there is a need for a new corridor to move traffic through the region. He noted the lack of state funding for potential improvements. MOTION: A motion was made by Committee Member Campbell, seconded by Committee Member Buster, to recommend the Orange County Transportation Authority Board of Directors adopt the proposed 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy as detailed in Attachment A of the staff report. John Donaldson, a resident of Corona, stated that the proposed toll policy does not benefit commuters; it benefits the bond holders. He noted the time required to construct proposed improvements and a new corridor will not be able to keep up with increased traffic demands on the State Route 91. The Committee recognized the leadership of the OCTA in the decision to purchase the toll road resulting in the elimination the non -complete clause which previously prevented improvements to the State Route 91. The Committee recognized that the toll policy proposal gets as close to a dynamic pricing model as possible, without having the equipment and technology in place for such a system. AMENDMENT TO THE ORGINAL MOTION: The motion was amended at the request of Vice Chairman Tavaglione, to also direct OCTA staff to return to the Advisory Committee in nine months with an analysis of how a dynamic pricing system similar to that used on the Interstate 15 toll road in San Diego could be implemented on the 91 Express Lanes. Page 3 of 5 MINUTES State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting July 11, 2003 The amended motion was declared passed by the following roll call vote of 8 to 1: Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee Member Campbell Member Buster Member Pulido Member Roberts Chairman Ward Vice Chairman Tavaglione Member Keenan Member Miller Member Schiffner Member McCracken YES YES YES YES YES YES YES NO ABSENT YES 4. Update on State Route 91 Construction Projects Caltrans representatives provided an update on the status of current State Route 91 construction projects. Caltrans District Director Cindy Quon noted that Caltrans has finalized their construction contract to add an auxiliary lane on the westbound State Route 91 between the county line and the State Route 241. Director Quon also announced that the endangered swallows that had been nesting under the Coal Canyon bridge have flown away, thereby clearing the way for construction to begin during the week of July 14, 2003. Caltrans District Director Anne Mayer reported that funding shortfalls, caused by the current state budget impasse, still threaten to delay the auxiliary lane project and 600 other construction projects statewide. Committee Member Buster requested a letter be sent to the State Legislature advising them of the need for funding and support for the additional lane on the State Route 91. Other Matters 5. General Manager's Report There was no report from the General Manager. 6. Committee Members' Reports Chairman was announced that the August 4, 2003 meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee would be cancelled. The next regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee will be held on October 3, 2003. Page 4 of 5 MINUTES State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting July 11, 2003 7. Public Comments At this time members of the public were invited to address the Committee regarding items within the subject matter jurisdiction of the Committee. There were no requests to address the Committee. 8. Adjournment The July 11, 2003, meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee adjourned at 11:00 a.m. ATTEST Olga Gonzalez Clerk of the Board Michael Ward Committee Chairman Page 5 of 5 1 • • • Item 2. Prg OCTA October 3, 2003 To: State Route 91 Advisory Committee From: Ellen S. Burton, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes&, Subject: 91 Express Lanes Status Report Overview A status report on the 91 Express Lanes has been prepared. The report highlights operations, maintenance activities, finance, and external communications. Year-to-date traffic, revenue and financial information through July 31, 2003 is provided. Recommendation Receive and file the 91 Express Lanes Status Report for the period ending July 31, 2003. Background On January 3, 2003, the Orange County Transportation Authority completed its acquisition of the 91 Express Lanes and began operations of the facility. To keep the State Route 91 Advisory Committee (Advisory Committee) apprised of the 91 Express Lane activities, a status report has been prepared. Discussion The July 2003 status report for the 91 Express Lanes is provided in Attachment A. The report has sections highlighting operations, financial data, and external communications. Total traffic volume for July continued to outperform the 2002 figures, whereas gross potential toll revenue for July 2003 decreased as compared to the same period in 2002. This is attributed to the new toll policy, adopted May 19, 2003, which allowed High Occupancy Vehicles with three or more persons (HOV3+) to ride free during most hours. Staff will continue to closely monitor traffic and revenue data and report back to the Advisory Committee regularly. Orange County Transportation Authority 550 South Main Street / P.O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584 / (714) 560-OCTA (6282) Page 2 SR -91 Express Lanes Status Report Summary The 91 Express Lanes status report for the period ending July 31, 2003 is provided for Board review. The report highlights operations, maintenance, finance, and external communications activities. Attachments A. 91 Express Lanes Status Report — As of July 31, 2003. ATTACHMENT A FAI OCTA Orange County Transportation Authority 10101' A L�anep s� Status Report July 2003 As of July 31, 2003 91 Express Lanes Status Report Table of Contents Chapter 1 - Operations Overview 3 o Traffic & Revenue Statistics o Maintenance / Capital Projects o Corona Customer Service Center Activities Chapter 2 — Financial Highlights ,7 o Revenues o Expenses o Capital Asset Activity o Debt Service o Operating Statement Chapter 3 — External Communications... 10 o Advisory Committee o OCTA Board Actions o Marketing o Customer Relations Chapter 4 — Next Steps.. .13 Chapter 1 Operations view Traffic and Revenue Statistics, Maintenance, and Customer Service Traffic and Revenue Statistics Month of July 2003 1. Traffic volume in the 91 Express Lanes increased 10.9 percent over the same period 2002. 2. Gross potential toll revenue decreased by 2.2 percent over the same period last year, 3. Gross potential toll revenue per trip declined 11.8 percent over the same period last year due to an increase in High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) trips as well as off-peak traffic. A toll price adjustment, effective May 19, 2003, allowed for HOV3+ carpoolers to ride free except for eastbound trips, Monday through Friday, between 4pm and 6pm. Traffic & Revenue — July 2003 This Year Same Period Last year Description July 2003 July 2002 2003 versus 2002 Trips I Full Toll Lanes 747,819 703,512 6.3% 3+ Lanes 185,122 137,446 34.7% Total Trips 932,941 840.958 10.9% Revenue Full Toll Lanes $ 2,158,086 $ 2,089,652 3.3% 3+ Lanes $ 39,281 $ 157,286 -75.0% Total Revenue $ 2,197,367 $ 2,246,938 -2.2% Revenue Per Trip Full Toll Lanes $ 2.89 $ 2.97 -2.8% 3+ Lanes $ 0.21 $ 1.14 -81.5% Revenue Per Trip $ 2.36 $ 2.67 -11.8% Express Lanes 3 Fiscal Year -to -Date (YTD) — As of July 31, 2003 1. Total fiscal YTD toll lane trips were up 10.9 percent over the same period as last year. 2. Fiscal YTD gross potential toll revenue was down 2.2 percent from 2002. 3. Overall, YTD gross potential toll revenue per trip declined 11.8 percent over the same period last year due to an increase in off-peak and HOV 3+ lane traffic. Fiscal 2003-2004 Year -To -Date Traffic & Revenue as of July 31, 2003 This Year Same Period Last Year 2003-2004 Actual YTD 2002-2003 YTD 2003-2004 YTD versus 2002- Description 2003 YTD Trips Full Toll Lanes 747,819 703,512 6.3% 3+ Lanes 185,122 137,446 34.7% Total Trips 932,941 840,958 10.9% Revenue Full Toll Lanes $ 2,158,086 $ 2,089,652 3.3% 3+ Lanes $ 39,281 $ 157,286 -75.0% Total Revenue $ 2,197,367 $ 2,246,938 -2.2% Revenue Per Trip Full Toll Lanes $ 2.89 $ 2.97 -2.8% 3+ Lanes $ 0.21 $ 1.14 -81.5% Revenue Per Trip $ 2.36 $ 2.67 -11.8% The graph below charts gross potential toll revenue on a monthly basis and compares those amounts to 2002 levels. 91 Express Lanes Gross Potential Toll Revenue 2,500,000 2,400,000. -. - - ---- - 2.300.000 ------- 2.200,000 r 2002 2603 L' -- 2,100,000 2,000,000 -- -- -- -- - - - - - --- - - / 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 Jan - Feb .-. - Mar - - - Apr May - - - Jun - - Jul Aug - — - Sep ---- - — Oct -- -- Nov Dec X2003 Gross Potential Toll Rev 2.238.573 2,019,127 2.197.667 2,176,493 2,239,663 2,094,1354 2,197,367 --2002 Gross Potential Toll Rev 1,933,425 1,855,290 2,095,718 2,090,802 2,320.283 2,146,524 2,246,938 2,378,502 2,140.113 2,357,684 2,254,180 2,207,675 —S Difference 305,148 163,837 101,949 85,691 (80,620) (51,870) (49,571) — % Difference 18% 9% 5% 4% -3% -2% -2% Maintenance / Capital Projects An important component of 91 Express Lanes operations is maintaining the toll lanes and the technology that supports the toll road operation. Routine maintenance is scheduled on every third Sunday (weather permitting) and performed by Caltrans. Routine maintenance consists of sweeping, replacement of channelizers and other repairs which can only be performed while the lanes are closed. This is due to the need for crew safety. Closures are kept to a minimum and scheduled for non -peak traffic times. During the month of July, Caltrans performed routine maintenance on July 13. OCTA is working with Cofiroute Global Mobility (CGM) and Sirit Corporation to replace the existing electronic toll and traffic management system (ETTM), the toll reading and recording technology. The system is scheduled for completion and will be deployed in Fall 2003. The new ETTM will further improve the reliability, accuracy and documentation of toll transactions. i �' express I� Lanes 5 Corona Customer Service Center Activities Call Volume Customer service activities at OCTA's operating contractor, CGM, continued at a very busy and productive rate. During the month of July, the Customer Service Center received 36,254 calls. All customer service performance levels i.e. call wait time, call duration, etc. were well within established standards. Transponder Account Status The 91 Express Lanes has experienced continued growth in the number of drivers using the facility since its inception. The steady growth can be measured by the number of transponders in circulation each year. The following chart shows the pattern of transponder growth the operation has experienced. History of Growing Number of Transponders in Circulation 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Q 1995 01996 111997 9i 1998 ❑ 1999 ■ 2000 ® 2001 E7 2002 O 2003 As of 7/31/2003 At the end of July, the 91 Express Lanes had 101,445 transponder accounts, with 144,915 transponders in circulation. Approximately 60 percent of transponder accounts were located in the Inland Empire. The cities of Corona and Riverside reflect 31 percent of the accounts. 0111:,0Express Lanes 6 Chapter 2 Financial Highlights Summary of Revenues, Expenses, Capital Asset Activity, Debt Service and Operating Statement Revenues 1. Toll revenue for the one month ended July 31, 2003 was $1,961,590. This is an decrease of 0.2 percent over the same period last year. 2. Non -toll revenues include account fees, pay -by -plate fees, and violation processing fees. Historically, non -toll revenues represent about 20 percent of total annual revenue. Non -toll revenue for the one month ended July 31, 2003 was $460,435 and represented 19.0 percent of total revenue compared to 19.6 percent for the same period last year. Expenses 1. Total operating expenses before depreciation and amortization expense for the one month ended July 31, 2003 were $794,044. 2. Depreciation of capital assets and amortization of the toll road franchise cost totaled $593,847 for the one month ended July 31, 2003. Depreciation and amortization expense are not budgeted items; however, these expenses are included in calculating net income. 3. Interest income for the one month ended July 31, 2003 was $61,602. 4. Interest expense related to the $135 million acquisition debt for the one month that ended July 31, 2003 was $858,375. 5. Interest expense related to subordinated debt for the one month ended July 31, 2003 was $363,117. Capital Asset Activity During the one month ended July 31, 2003, significant capital asset activities included approximately $21,950 related to the ETTM replacement system. E%1 Lanesss Debt Service The next debt service payment for the Taxable 7.63 percent Senior Secured Bonds is scheduled for August 15, 2003. The amount due is equal to $5.15 million and is comprised solely of interest expense. Currently, there remains $135 million outstanding on the Bonds. In addition to the amounts due on the Taxable Bonds, the Authority has subordinated debt outstanding related to the acquisition of the 91 Express Lanes. The subordinated debt is comprised of internally borrowed funds, which will be repaid on an annual basis with 91 Express Lanes net revenues. The amount of principal outstanding currently totals approximately $84 million. The Authority's Board of Directors has selected an underwriting team to restructure the Taxable Bonds associated with the 91 Express Lanes and a financial advisory firm to assist with the refinancing. The refinancing is scheduled to be completed in November 2003. A 8 Operating Statement YTD As of July 31, 20031 YTD Variance Description Actual Budget Dollar S nallalliaMi Percent (%) -M5 r_!P VE'.'.,, W. _ - .,ice''ile'- yt Operating Revenues Toll Revenue $1,961,590 $2,230,210 ($268,620) (12.0) Non -Toll and Other Revenue 460,435 333,333 127,102 38.1 Operating Revenues ota t����j!// 2,422,025 2,563,543 (141,518) (5.5) Operating Expenses Contracted Services 416,167 416,167 0 0 Other Professional Services 6,325 65,119 58,794 90.3 Credit Card Processing 59,473 65,999 6,526 9.9 Toll Road Account Servicing 15,974 0 (15,974) N/A Toll Road Maintenance and Materials 31,343 47,079 15,736 33.4 Patrol Services 25,000 27,945 2,945 10.5 System Maintenance 785 0 (785) N/A Other Services 14,599 0 (14,599) N/A Advertising 20,899 5,598 (15,301) (273.3) Utilities 15,304 20,936 5,632 26.9 Office Supplies 71,437 87,796 16,359 18.6 Leases 25,747 27,570 1,823 6.6 Other 754 111,243 110,489 99.3 Property Insurance 35,856 8,934 (26,922) (301.3) Administrative Services 54,381 54,381 0 0 Depreciation and Amartizatlon2 593,847 0 (593,847) N/A Total Operating Expenses 1,387,891 I I 938,767 (449,124) N/A - Operating Income 1,034,134 1,624,776 (590,642) N/A Non -Operating Revenues (Expenses): Interest Income 61,602 29,982 31,620 105.5 Interest Expense (1,221,492) 0 (1,221,492) N/A Total Non -Operating Revenues (Expenses) (1,159,890) 29,982 (1,189,872) N/A Net Income (Loss) ($125,756) $1,654,758 ($1,780,514) N/A Actual amounts are accounted for on the accrual basis of accounting in an enterprise fund. Budget amounts are accounted for on a modified accrual basis of accounting. 2 Depreciation and amortization are not budgeted items. OExpress! A Lanes 9 Chapter 3 External Communications Advisory Committee, OCTA Board Actions, Marketing, Customer Relations Advisory Committee The July 11 meeting of the State Route (SR) -91 Advisory Committee ittee took place at the Eagle Glen Golf Club Meeting Facilities in Corona. A summary of the two presentations made at the July meeting follows. • OCTA's 91 Express Lanes General Manager presented a recommended management philosophy for operating the 91 Express Lanes which identified pricing goals and an overall toll policy. After a comprehensive review of the proposal and committee discussion, the Advisory Committee recommended the proposed 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy be taken to the OCTA Board of Directors for adoption. • Caltrans provided an update on the State Route 91 lane drop restoration and Corona re -striping project. The lane drop restoration project involves extending the westbound SR -91 auxiliary lane 0.5 miles from its current terminus, located between Coal Canyon and the SR -241, to the County line. A companion to this project is a re -striping project on westbound SR -91 from Coal Canyon to SR -71. Both projects are scheduled for completion by January 2004, however, with the delayed in the adoption of the state budget, Caltrans informed the committee there is concern that the project could be postponed. The Advisory Committee requested staff to prepare a letter to the State Legislature urging there support of this important improvement project. OCTA Board Actions On July 14, 2003, the OCTA Board: • Adopted a comprehensive toll policy and directed staff to develop a refinancing plan for the 91 Express Lanes taxable debt service. The board also authorized an extension to the contract term of Vollmer Associates LLP, OCTA's traffic and revenue consultant for the 91 Express Lanes. On July 21, 2003 at a special meeting of the OCTA Board: l`+ Express Lanes 10 • Approved advancing $6.0 million to Caltrans to ensure the timely completion of the SR -91 Lane Restoration Improvement Project. Due to the delay in the State Budget adoption, funding to continue work on the SR -91 lane drop restoration project was at risk. The Board authorized advancement of these funds to ensure the project stayed on schedule. A week later the State Budget was approved and the advancement was not needed. On July 28, 2003, the OCTA Board: • Authorized staff to proceed with the refinancing of the 91 Express Lanes Taxable Bonds and to return to the Board of Directors with a recommended financing structure. Marketing On July 14 the OCTA Board adopted a new toll policy for the 91 Express Lanes. To inform the public about the new policy, a number of communication elements were used, including: • Distribution of letters to all 91 Express Lanes customers • Development and distribution of press releases and information to the media • Update of websites (www.91expresslanes.com and www.octa.net) with details of the new policy • E-mail notification to all customers with email addresses • Information on the variable message signs on the toll road Draft finding from the 2003 Customer Satisfaction Survey as well as a Stakeholder and Community Leader Assessment were presented to staff in July. Staff will use findings and recommendations from those two work products as a foundation for future marketing and outreach efforts for the 91 Express Lanes. A staff report will be presented to the Board in Fall 2003 with summaries of the two studies and a marketing plan. Customer Relations On July 19, 2003, a letter from Ellen Burton was mailed to all 91 Express Lanes customers explaining the new toll policy. This letter generated calls and e -mails to the OCTA from 91 Express Lanes customers requesting more information or sharing their opinions regarding the new policy. Customer Relations will continue to monitor these calls. OCTA staff responded directly to questions related to toll policy as well as escalated situations involving toll violations. Questions about transponders, payments, address changes, etc., were referred to the 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center in Corona unless a customer specifically requested assistance from OCTA. Forty -Six customer communications were documented from July 1st through the 31st. OCTA is working closely with the Customer Service Manager and the Operations Manager at Cofiroute Global Mobility (OCTA's operating contractor) to address any these issues. &Express Lanes 11 Comments received by OCTA Customer Relations staff ranged broadly in scope and include: • New Toll Policy • Toll violations A Special Access Accounts (3+ lane, Disabled license plates, and motorcycles) • Miscellaneous (General policy suggestions, transponders, and monthly statements) OCTA Customer Relations staff is developing a comprehensive 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Plan. The plan will analyze the current method of reporting customer comments, general policies/practices and sufficiency of the current Service Center hours of operation. The final comprehensive plan will be presented to the OCTA Board of Directors upon completion. iF f " Express I ;[.antis 12 Chapter 4 Next Steps Upcoming Events and Activities September 2003 • Opening of new 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center in Corona (September 29) • Customer Service Plan developed • Vollmer Traffic and Revenue Study completed October 2003 • SR -91 Advisory Committee meeting • Electronic Toll and Traffic Management System Testing • Report on Fiscal Year 2002/2003 Year -End Closing / Progress Report Fall 2003 • Refinancing of taxable debt • Deployment of Electronic Toll and Traffic Management System • Installation of Phase II of TollProTM software • Report on Customer Profile / Marketing Proposals ekEXpre-S9 13 • • • Item 3. Fri OCTA October 3, 2004 To: State Route 91 Advisory Committee From: Ellen S. Burton, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes Gib Subject: 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center Relocation Overview The 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center has relocated to a new facility located at 2275 Sampson Street, Suite 100, in Corona. Staff is preparing an open house / ceremonial grand opening for October 28, 2003. Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. Background On May 12, 2003, the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) Board of Directors approved the relocation of the 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center. A five-year lease was approved for a facility located at 2275 Sampson Street, Suite 100, in Corona. On September 29, 2003 the customer service center re -opened at this location. Discussion To help publicize the new location, OCTA is developing a grand opening ceremony and open house to be held on October 28, 2003. Staff is requesting Advisory Committee members "save the date". A ceremonial ribbon cutting event is scheduled for 11:45 a.m. with a reception to be held immediately following the event. Additional information / invitations will be forthcoming. Summary The 91 Express Lanes Customer Service Center has relocated and an open house is planned for October 28, 2003. Orange County Transportation Authority 550 South Main Street/ P.O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584 / (714) 560-OCTA (6282) • Item 4. OCTA. September 22, 2003 To: From: Subject: Overview Members of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee Ellen Burton, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes (s, Draft Final 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study The Orange County Transportation Authority is contracting with Vollmer Associates LLP to develop a long term traffic and revenue projection for the 91 Express Lanes based on socioeconomic factors as well as assumptions about planned improvements and toll policies. When finalized, the traffic and revenue study will be included with the refinancing documents for the 91 Express Lanes. Recommendation Receive and file the Draft Final 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study. Background On January 3, 2003, the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) acquired the franchise rights to the 91 Express Lanes toll road for $207.5 million. The acquisition included the assumption of $135 million in taxable debt from the California Private Transportation Company (CPTC) along with an advance of $72.5 million in cash from internal OCTA funds. In addition, OCTA set aside funds for debt service payments plus working capital in an amount of $11 million. The interest rate on the 91 Express Lanes Taxable Bonds is fixed at 7.63 percent and there currently remains $135 million outstanding. An analysis of the taxable bonds shows there are potential savings if they are redeemed. However, to complete the refinancing, traffic and revenue projections are needed. On July 14, 2003, OCTA adopted a new toll policy and authorized funds for Vollmer Associates, LLP (Vollmer) to complete a long-term traffic and revenue analysis. A draft final report has been prepared and is included as Attachment A. Orange County Transportation Authority 550 South Main Street/ P.O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584/(714) 560-OCTA (6282) Page 2 Draft Final 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Discussion The Vollmer 91 Express Lanes Draft Final Traffic and Revenue (T&R) study provides a long-term projection of both global (full corridor) traffic volume as well as expected 91 Express Lanes toll trips along the Riverside Freeway / State Route 91 corridor. The study estimates future activity to the year 2030. Key activities in preparing the report included: • Analyzing historic traffic and revenue data • Reviewing and updating socioeconomic forecasts • Development of the model network • Updating assumptions about planned improvements and projects based on the OCTA Board adopted State Route 91 Implementation Study • Projecting future traffic demand • Forecasting future 91 Express Lanes gross potential revenue The OCTA Board of Directors reviewed the Draft Final T&R Study on September 22, 2003 and directed staff to forward it to the State Route 91 Advisory Committee. A Final T&R Study would then be prepared for inclusion with refinancing documents. Summary The Orange County Transportation Authority is contracting with Vollmer Associates LLP to develop a long term traffic and revenue projection for the 91 Express Lanes based on socioeconomic factors as well as assumptions about planned improvements and toll policies. When finalized, the traffic and revenue study will be included with the refinancing documents for the 91 Express Lanes. Attachments A. Draft Final 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Draft Final Report 91 Express Lanes Traffic & Revenue Study Prepared for: Orange County Transportation Authority Update September 17, 2003 Originally Submitted ■ August 29, 2003 Prepared by: V VOl L_MER VOLLMER ASSOCIATES LLP with PBConsult, Inc. George Hoyt & Associates 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Draft Final Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES -1 1. STUDY INTRODUCTION 1-1 Purpose 1-1 The Consultant Team 1-1 Organization of the Report 1-1 Project Description 1-1 2. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE HISTORY 2-1 Historic Global Traffic Volumes 2-1 Global and 91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic Volumes 2-2 HOV-3+ Volumes 2-4 Transponders 2-5 Daily Traffic Variations 2-6 Hourly Traffic Profiles 2-6 Operating Characteristics 2-6 Origin Destination Patterns in Riverside Freeway / SR -91 Corridor 2-7 Toll Rates 2-9 Weekly Traffic and Potential Revenue 2-10 Annual Gross Potential Toll Revenue 2-11 3. SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS 3-1 Introduction 3-1 OCTAM 3.1 Transportation Analysis Model 3-1 Base Year 2000 Employment Validation 3-3 Base Year 2000 Household and Population Validation 3-4 Key Drivers of the Consultant Team Forecast 3-5 Study Area Employment Forecast 3-6 Study Area Household Forecast 3-7 Survey of Economic Projections 3-8 Major Commercial and Residential Developments 3-10 The Irvine Company 3-10 MCAS Tustin Project Area 3-11 El Toro Marine Base 3-11 The Chino Airport Area 3-11 I-15 Corridor 3-12 Lake Elsinore 3-12 4. MODEL AND NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 4-1 VOCTAM 3.1 Development and Calibration 4-1 Hourly Simulation Model Development 4-4 Hourly Distribution 4-4 Volume -Capacity Ratio and Speeds 4-4 Market Share 4-5 Hourly Simulation Model Calibration 4-5 5. HOURLY SIMULATION MODEL TRAFFIC AND POTENTIAL REVENUE 5-1 2000 Base Traffic and Potential Revenue 5-1 2011 Traffic and Potential Revenue 5-2 2025 Traffic and Potential Revenue 5-3 Projected Annual Traffic and Revenue 5-4 Appendix 1— VOCTAM Validation Results Appendix 2 — Subconsultant Information LIST OF FIGURES Figure Title Follows Page Figure 1-1 Study Area 1-1 Figure 2-1 SR -91 Corridor Historical Traffic Volume Trends 1980-2003 2-1 Figure 2-2 SR -91 Average Global Daily Traffic Volumes (Mar 1999 - Aug 2003) 2-2 Figure 2-3 91 Express Lanes Weekday Daily Traffic Volumes 2-2 Figure 2-4 91 Express Lanes Weekend Daily Traffic Volumes 2-2 Figure 2-5 Weekday 91 Express Lanes HOV-3+ Percentage 2-4 Figure 2-6 Total Number of OCTA Transponders in Circulation 2-5 Figure 2-7 91 Express Lanes Average May Weekday EB Traffic Volumes 2-6 Figure 2-8 91 Express Lanes Average May Weekday WB Traffic Volumes 2-6 Figure 2-9 91 Express Lanes Average May Friday EB Traffic Volumes 2-6 Figure 2-10 91 Express Lanes Average May Friday WB Traffic Volumes 2-6 Figure 2-11 SR 91 Orange and Riverside Counties, 2002 Layout 2-6 Figure 2-12 91 Express Lanes Toll Schedule 2-9 Figure 2-13 91 Express Lanes Tolls — Eastbound Wednesdays 2-9 Figure 2-14 91 Express Lanes Tolls — Eastbound Fridays 2-9 Figure 2-15 91 Express Lanes Tolls — Westbound Wednesdays 2-9 Figure 2-16 91 Express Lanes Tolls — Westbound Fridays 2-9 Figure 2-17 91 Express Lanes Sample Friday Daily EB Traffic Volumes 2-9 Figure 2-18 91 Express Lanes Sample Friday 5pm-6pm EB Traffic Volumes 2-9 Figure 2-19 91 Express Lanes Weekly Traffic and Revenue 2-10 Figure 4-1 SR -91 Global Hourly Distributions 4-4 Figure 4-2 Speed and Volume/Capacity Data Points 4-4 Figure 4-3 Speed Curves — Data and Curves 4-4 Figure 4-4 Speed Curves — Curves Used 4-4 Figure 4-5 Overall EB Market Share Data Points by Toll Rate 4-5 Figure 4-6 Overall EB Market Share Curves by Toll Rate 4-5 Figure 5-1 2000 Weekday Volumes and Speeds 5-1 Figure 5-2 2000 Weekend Volumes and Speeds 5-1 Figure 5-3 SR -91 Orange and Riverside Counties, 2011 Layout 5-2 Figure 5-4 2011 Weekday Volumes and Speeds 5-3 Figure 5-5 2011 Weekend Volumes and Speeds 5-3 Figure 5-6 SR -91 Orange and Riverside Counties, 2025 Layout 5-3 Figure 5-7 2025 Weekday Volumes and Speed 5-4 Figure 5-8 2025 Weekend Volumes and Speed 5-4 Figure 5-9 Daily Express Traffic & Annual Revenue (Improvements) 5-4 LIST OF TABLES Table Title On/Follows Page Table 2-1 Average Daily Traffic 2-3 Table 2-2 OCTA Transponder Accounts by City 2-5 Table 2-3 Summary of AM Trip Purpose 2-8 Table 2-4 Summary of AM Origins and Destinations 2-8 Table 2-5 Start Hour of AM Peak Trips 2-8 Table 2-6 Annual Potential Revenue 2-11 Table 3-1 Year 2000 Comparison to US Census and CA EDD Data 3-4 Table 3-2 Employment Forecast 2000-2025 3-6 Table 3-3 Housing Forecast 2000-2025 3-7 Table 3-4 Population Forecast 2000-2025 3-8 Table 3-5 Employment Forecast Comparison 3-9 Table 3-6 Housing Forecast Comparison 3-10 Table 4-1 State Highway System Improvement Summary 4-3 Table 4-2 Road Improvement Summary 4-3 Table 4-3 State Route 91 Implementation Plan (Modeling Assumptions) 4-3 Table 4-4 Historic Traffic and Revenue and Simulation Model Calibration Results4-5 Table 5-1 Hourly Simulation Model Results — 2000 Typical Weekday Eastbound and Westbound Traffic and Projected Revenue 5-1 Table 5-2 FY 2000 Base Year Traffic and Potential Revenue 5-1 Table 5-3 2011 Weekday Eastbound and Westbound Traffic and Revenue 5-2 Table 5-4 FY 2011 Forecast Year Estimated Traffic and Potential Revenue with Improvements 5-3 Table 5-5 2025 Weekday Eastbound and Westbound Traffic and Revenue 5-3 Table 5-6 FY 2025 Forecast Year Estimated Traffic and Potential Revenue with Improvements 5-4 Table 5-7 Hourly Simulation Model Interim Year Toll Policy Forecasts 5-4 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this study was to project traffic and revenue estimates for the 91 Express Lanes in Orange County, California. In January 2003, the Orange County Transportation Authority ("OCTA") purchased the 91 Express Lanes from the California Private Transportation Company, L.P. ("CPTC"). Since that time, OCTA has had eight months of operating experience on the 91 Express Lanes and has changed toll policy (May 19th) to allow high occupancy vehicles with three or more persons (HOV-3+) to travel for free except during the period weekdays, eastbound from 4-6 PM. On July 14, OCTA adopted a new Toll Policy ("Toll Policy") which sets toll rates based on observed consistently high hourly traffic volumes. OCTA has contracted with Cofiroute Global Mobility ("GGM") to operate the lanes. Consultant Team Vollmer Associates LLP ("Vollmer"), George Hoyt & Associates ("GH&A") and PB Consult, Inc. ("PB Consult") (together the "Consultant Team") produced the 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study. • Vollmer had the overall lead for the Traffic and Revenue Study and was responsible for project management and coordination, as well as forecasting the future gross potential toll revenues to be derived from the 91 Express Lanes. • GH&A provided the traffic modeling services including modification of the current regional transportation model known as the Orange County Transportation Analysis Model 3.1 ("OCTAM 3.1") traffic model, recalibration of the new 2000 base year traffic model and projection of future traffic demand based on forecast improvements. • PB Consult provided the socioeconomic review of the employment and household projections used in the traffic model. PB Consult reviewed projections for the Study Area (defined as Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura counties, as well as portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, known as the "Inland Empire") region for population, dwelling units, employment and other projection variables. Riverside Freeway / SR -91 Corridor Traffic History Traffic in the Riverside Freeway / State Route (SR) -91 corridor is separated into the free general purpose lanes and the tolled 91 Express Lanes. The sum of the traffic on the different lanes is referred to herein as the global traffic volumes. Over time, the global traffic in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor has grown along with the economy and population in Southern California. During the period between 1982 and 1991, before the 91 Express Lanes were opened, there was a large growth in global traffic volumes due to increased commuter traffic caused by employment growth in Orange County and available, more affordable housing in Riverside County. In the early 1990's a recession of the national economy slowed down the growth of economic activity in Southern California, as well as in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. Although the following expansion of the national economy from 1992 to 2001 was one of the longest in our nation's history; the local economy in Southern California was not as strong. ES -1 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates According to Caltrans, the average daily global traffic volume in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor has grown from 90,000 in calendar year 1982 to a reported 264,000 vehicles per day in 2002. Vollmer has estimated that the average daily global traffic volumes in calendar year 2003 are approximately 268,000 vehicles per day at the Orange/Riverside County line. The 91 Express Lanes opened on December 27, 1995, and provided an additional four lanes of capacity in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor to allow for traffic growth. The average daily global traffic volume in 1995 was 207,000 vehicles, and these volumes have grown at an average annual rate of approximately 3.5 percent per year since the opening of the 91 Express Lanes. In 1996, the first full calendar year of operation for the 91 Express Lanes, 13,900 of the 212,000 average daily global vehicles used the 91 Express Lanes. By 1997, the daily global traffic volume had grown to 229,000 vehicles, with 23,300 of those using the 91 Express Lanes. In October of 1998, the six lane Eastern Transportation Corridor / SR -241 (ETC) toll road opened, which provided an alternate direct route from Riverside County to southern Orange County. More importantly, users of the ETC could not access the 91 Express Lanes. As a result, in 1999, traffic on the 91 Express Lanes dropped to 20,300 of the 224,000 average daily global volume. In 2002, the average daily global traffic volumes were reported as 264,000 vehicles, of which 26,100 vehicles used the 91 Express Lanes. In 2003, traffic volumes in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor have been reaching record high levels. Summer Friday traffic volumes on the 91 Express Lanes have frequently reached 39,000 vehicles, a daily traffic volume that has not been recorded since before the ETC opened in 1998. HOV-3+ vehicle activity has increased since the May toll policy change allowed HOV-3+ vehicles to travel for free during all periods except weekdays, eastbound 4-6 PM. Comparing June and July in 2003 (with new HOV-3+ toll policy for entire period) to the same months in 2002, HOV-3+ vehicle volumes have increased by just over 30 percent, while the full toll vehicles increased approximately 4 percent. The overall 91 Express Lanes traffic growth for June and July 2003 compared to 2002 is approximately 8.5 percent, while the gross potential toll revenue has dropped by approximately 4 percent for the same time period. Calendar year-to-date (through mid -August) 2003 91 Express Lanes traffic volumes are approximately 10 percent higher than for the same time period in 2002. Gross potential toll revenues for the same period are up approximately 3 percent (HOV-3+ vehicles were tolled at a 50 percent rate until May 19, 2003). Tolls The toll rates on the 91 Express Lanes have historically been set as a function of traffic demand in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. Since the 91 Express Lanes tolls are all collected electronically, the toll rates have varied from hour -to -hour and from day-to- day based on a predetermined toll schedule. Since the 91 Express Lanes opened in 1995, the toll rate schedule has been increased eight times. ES -2 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates On May 19 OCTA permitted HOV-3+ vehicles to travel for free during all time periods except weekdays eastbound between 4-6 PM, during which time HOV-3+ vehicles are charged 50 percent of the scheduled toll rate. On July 14, OCTA's new Toll Policy was adopted by its Board of Directors. OCTA's Toll Policy emphasizes optimal vehicle throughput at free flow speeds as well as an accommodation of expected growth in travel demand. Hourly traffic volumes are tracked over a 12 -week period. When hourly volumes consistently reach or exceed 3,200 vehicles per hour per direction, tolls are adjusted to maintain a predictable level of service. As a result of the Toll Policy, certain tolls were raised on August 1. Toll rates between 4-6 PM on Thursday and Fridays in the eastbound direction were raised $0.75 to $5.50. The current toll schedule charges $1.00 during the overnight hours, with gradual increases in tolls as the traffic volumes build throughout the day. During the eastbound evening peak on Thursday and Friday, the maximum toll rate is currently $5.50, and during the morning westbound peak, the highest toll charged is $3.60. Socioeconomics The Southern California demographic forecasts underlying the traffic and revenue forecast for the 91 Express Lanes were reviewed and refined by the Consultant Team based on the economic outlook and future patterns of land use within the Study Area (defined as Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura counties as well as portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties known as the "Inland Empire"). Selected interviews were completed and a high-level land use review was conducted in specific areas that are expected to sustain large concentrations of future growth in Orange County and the Inland Empire. The resulting Consultant Team forecast predicts the addition of 2.69 million jobs and 1.52 million households to the Study Area between 2000 and 2025. Of this, Orange County will capture 581,400 jobs and 217,915 households while the Inland Empire area of Riverside and San Bernardino counties will capture 951,900 jobs and 847,700 households. The strongest growth in the Study Area will occur in the Inland Empire of Riverside and San Bernardino counties due to the lack of vacant developable land, the high cost of doing business and the shortage of affordable housing in the more fully developed Orange and Los Angeles counties. VOCTAM Model Development The Consultant Team modified the existing OCTAM 3.1 to develop the Vollmer Orange County Transportation Analysis Model ("VOCTAM"), a regional travel demand model used for the development of traffic forecasts in the Study Area. The travel forecasts from the VOCTAM model produce incremental changes in average daily global traffic volumes based on the forecast year and included transportation network improvements. These average daily global traffic volumes were then incorporated into an hourly simulation model to develop detailed traffic and revenue forecasts. Several iterations of validations and calibrations were performed on the VOCTAM model before it was used for forecasting. After the calibration was complete, forecast year transportation networks were developed. OCTA was required by statute, in consultation ES -3 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates with Caltrans and the Riverside County Transportation Commission, to develop the 2003 State Route 91 Implementation Plan in July 2003. OCTA provided the Consultant Team with a list of planned transportation network improvements, presented in the adopted 2003 State Route 91 Implementation Plan, in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor impact area (which covers a slightly larger area than the Study Area) as well as a description and schedule of the specific Study Area roadway infrastructure improvements. The improvements were incorporated into VOCTAM forecast years 2011 and 2025 transportation networks. Vollmer used the resulting 2011 and 2025 global volumes to simulate conditions in 2011 and 2025, as well as to estimate a traffic and revenue stream for the interim projection years. Hourly Simulation Model Historic information received from Caltrans and CGM was used to develop a static model that provided a "snapshot" of hourly distribution of global traffic volumes in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. The historic relationships between volumes, speeds, toll rates and market shares were all used in order to model the historic hourly traffic volumes, as well as to project future traffic conditions in both the 91 Express Lanes and in the general purpose lanes in an "Hourly Simulation Model". The Hourly Simulation Model was then used to forecast future "typical" demand conditions in the 91 Express Lanes. The output from the VOCTAM model provides average daily global traffic volumes for periods of traffic (AM Peak, Midday, PM Peak and Night). Historic global hourly distributions were applied to the daily VOCTAM output to generate the weekday eastbound and westbound hourly volumes in the Hourly Simulation Model. As projected volumes exceed capacities in future peak hours in the Hourly Simulation Model, traffic volumes are spread into less congested adjacent shoulder period hours to allow for peak period traffic migration. CGM provided recorded speed and volume information at the toll collection point at Weir Canyon Road for both the 91 Express Lanes and the general purpose lanes in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91. These data were compiled to develop and analyze the relationship between speed and volume -capacity ratios for each toll rate, and these relationships were then applied to projected average daily global traffic volumes to predict the split between general purpose lanes and 91 Express Lanes use. The Hourly Simulation Model was run for the years 2011 and 2025 with Forecast Improvements. The interim year forecasts were developed using a modified straight line interpolation method based on average annual growth rates between the forecast years. As growth is not expected to be constant year after year, annual growth rates were developed that generally follow the typical patterns expected, with higher growth rates in the earlier years that level off as time progresses. An exception to this pattern occurs in 2008 and in 2013 when Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor improvements come online and provide additional corridor capacity. Since the use of the 91 Express Lanes is demand -based, the traffic and revenue drop when these improvements come online due to the additional general purpose lane capacity. ES -4 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Operational Toll Policy Model A detailed Operational Toll Policy Model was developed as a near -term toll policy analysis tool. The Operational Toll Policy Model tracks the hourly 91 Express Lane volumes for each day of the week in both the eastbound and westbound directions. Six- month growth rates are applied, and tolls are modified as necessary according to the Toll Policy. The Operational Toll Policy Model operates out to a 2007 estimate, providing more detailed information for the traffic and revenue estimates for each day individually, not using a "typical weekday" as does the Hourly Simulation Model. Network Improvements When CPTC owned and operated the 91 Express Lanes, a non -compete clause in the Franchise Agreement with Caltrans prohibited any general purpose capacity improvements be made to the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. The non -compete restrictions also extended to an absolute protection zone — approximately 1-1/2 mile either side of the centerline of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 between the Los Angeles County line and the Corona Freeway / Interstate (I)-15. OCTA eliminated the non -compete clause as a requirement in its acquisition of the 91 Express Lanes. The major improvements that are scheduled to be completed by 2011 as described in the 2003 State Route 91 Improvement Plan include the following: Project No.* Location Description Open 3 On westbound SR -91 at Lakeview Avenue Construct a barrier separated on -ramp for southbound Lakeview traffic to eliminate weaving to southbound SR -55 2008 7 On eastbound SR -91 at Weir Canyon (at truck scales) Add storage lanes / improve merge at existing truck scales 2008 10 On westbound SR -91 from the Orange/Riverside County line to SR -241 Lane drop restoration project — extend the auxiliary lane westbound from the county line to Coal Canyon 2004 11 On westbound SR -91 from SR -71 to Orange/Riverside County line Re-stripe/resign westbound SR -91 from SR- 71 to the county line to create auxiliary lane to reduce weaving and to provide smoother transition for commuters traveling to SR - 241 from SR -71 2004 12 On eastbound SR -91 from SR -241 to SR -71 Extend auxiliary lane from SR -241 to SR- 71 2008 16A On SR -91 at the Green River Road interchange Reconstruct over crossing to lengthen and widen bridge 2008 * As described in the adopted June 2003 State Route 91 Implementation Plan. The improvements as described in the 2003 State Route 91 Improvement Plan scheduled to be completed by the 2025 forecast year include the following: ES -5 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates PNoe* ct Location Description Open 2 On westbound SR -91 at Tustin Avenue Improve westbound ramp connector on SR -91 between SR -55 and Tustin Interchanges and extend auxiliary lane 2013 4,5 On westbound SR -91 from SR- 241 to Imperial Highway and on eastbound SR -91 from Lakeview to SR -241 Add one general purpose lane in each direction. In addition, in the section eastbound from Lakeview to Imperial Highway, add another general purpose lane. 2013 6 On westbound and eastbound SR -91 at about Weir Canyon Road Add intermediate access to the toll lanes 2013 9 On westbound and eastbound SR -91 from SR -241 to SR -71 Add one general purpose lane 2013 15 1 On westbound and eastbound SR -91 from SR -241 to SR -71 Add one general purpose lane 2013 19 On SR -91 westbound and eastbound from SR -71 to Pierce Street Add one general purpose lane 2013 20 On SR -91 westbound and eastbound from SR -71 to Pierce Street Add one general purpose lane or HOV lane 2013 22 At SR -91/I-15 Interchange Add direct HOV to HOV connector ramps 2018 s described in the adopted June 2003 State Route 91 Implementation Plan. Revenue Estimates The forecast year revenue projections assume the current Toll Policy, which requires toll rate increases when each hour's average hourly traffic volumes exceed 3,200 vehicles for at least 6 weeks in a 12 -week period. In addition, the Toll Policy includes inflation adjustments on July 1St of each year, starting in 2004. OCTA's contract inflation factor is calculated by using 75 percent Labor Index Adjuster and 25 percent Consumer Price Index adjuster. A 3 percent annual estimated inflation rate was used for this study. In FY 2011, the forecast revenue with the proposed Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor improvements is approximately $47.0 million based on an average daily traffic volume of 40,100 vehicles on the 91 Express Lanes. The forecast peak hour Friday eastbound toll charged with improvements is $13.00. The average revenue per trip (calculated over a 24 - hour period and including HOV-3+ vehicles who travel for free at all times beginning in FY 2011) is $3.22 per trip. In FY 2025, with the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor improvements in place, the forecast average daily 91 Express Lane volume is 51,100 vehicles, and the forecast resulting revenue is approximately $92.2 million. In 2025, the estimated Friday eastbound peak hourly toll rate is $13.55, while the overnight toll charged is $1.90 and the average overall toll rate is $4.98. ES -6 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates In 2013, the year when the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 near -term improvement projects in the general purpose lanes (which effectively add one general purpose lane's capacity in each direction) come online, the peak hour tolls that had been increased according to toll policy are assumed to be reduced to their "inflation -only" toll rate. For example, in 2013, the Friday eastbound peak hour toll rate is reduced from above $13 to $7.40. Between 2013 and 2025, both inflation and the peak hour toll increments are applied in order to get back to the $13.55 estimated toll in 2025. As a result, there is a forecast 27 percent decrease in gross potential toll revenues in year 2013. Vollmer modeled the forecast revenue in 2011 and 2025 as described above. Vollmer included a modified straight line interpolation method to estimate annual traffic and revenues from 2004 through 2010, from 2012 through 2024, and beyond 2025. The forecast traffic volumes, traffic volume growth rates and gross potential toll revenues are shown in Table ES -1. ES -7 updated 9/25/03 Table ES -1 Hourly Simulation Model Interim Year Toll Policy Forecasts Forecast Improvements Fiscal Year (ending June 30th) Forecast Improvements I Toll Policy Global Volume General Purpose Lane Volumes 91 Express Lane Volumes Growth Rate Potential Free- Flow Revenue Growth Rate 1988 175,000 175,000 - $ - 1989 183,000 183,000 - $ 1990 197,000 197,000 - $ 1991 206,000 206,000 - $ - 1992 206,000 206,000 - $ - 1993- 205,000 205,000 - $ - 1994 206,000 206,000', - $ - 1995 207,000 207,000 - $ - 1996 = 210,000 203,900 6,100 $ 2,800,000 1997 221,000 200,200 20,800 241% $ 10,300,000 268% 1998 227,000 202,160 24,840 19% $ 14,780,000 43% 1999 224,000 200,775 23,225 -7% $ 17,580,000 19% 2000 232,000 211,700 20,300 -13% $ 17.225,000 -2% 2001 240,000 217,855 22.145 9% $ 19.930,000 16% 2002 250,000 226,150 23.850 8% $ 23,320,000 17% 2003 263,000 234,600 28,400 19% $ 26,560,000 14% 2004* 270,000 239,700 30,300 7% $ 26,400,000 -1% 2005 273,000 240,900 32,100 6% $ 29,100,000 10% 2006 275,7001 242,000 33.700 5% $ 31,800,000 9% 2007 278,200 242,800 35.400 5% $ 34,700,000 9% 2008 283,900 247,400 36,500 3% i $ 37,500,000 8% 2009 286,300 248,600 37,700 3% $ 40,500,000 8% 2010 288,700 249,800 38,900 3% $ 43,600,000 8% 2011*" 291,000 251,100 39,900 3% $ 46,1.00;000 6% 2012 293,300 252,000 41,300 4% $ 49,200,000 7% 2013*** 307,400 275,800 31,600 -23% $ 36,200,000 -26% 2014 316,000 282,800 33,200 5% $ 39,700.000 10% 2015 318,500 283,600 34,900 5% $ 43,500,000 10% 2016 321,000 284,500 36,500 5% $ 47,500,000 9% 2017 323,400 285,300 38,100 4% $ 51,700,000 9% 2018 329,100 289,300 39,800 4% $ 56,200,000 9% 2019 331,400 290.000 41,400 4% $ 60,900,000 8% 2020 333,700 290.600 43,100 4% $ 65,900,000 8% 2021 335,900 291,100 44,800 4% $ 71,100,000 8% 2022 337,900 291,300 46,600 4% $ 76,700,000 8% 2023 339,900 291,700 48,200 3% $ 82,100.000 7% 2024 341,900 292,300 49,600 3% $ 87,400,000 6% 2025 344,000 293,000 51,000 3% $ 92,900,000 6% 2026 345,700 293,900 51,800 2% $ 97,400,000 5% 2027 347,400 295,000 I 52,400 1% $ 101,800,000 5% 2028 349,000 295,900 53,100 1% $ 106,400,000 5% 2029 350,400 296.600 53,800 1% $ 111,200,000 _ 5% 2030 351,800 297,500 54,300 1% $ 115,600,000 4% *HOV-3+ vehicles travels for free except eastbound weekdays 4-6 PM beginning FY 04 ** HOV-3+ vehicles travel for free at all times *** SR 91 Major Improvement programs come online Draft Final Report 91 Express Lanes Traffic & Revenue Study DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates 1. STUDY INTRODUCTION Purpose The purpose of this study was to project traffic and toll revenues for the 91 Express Lanes in Orange County, California. In January 2003, OCTA purchased the 91 Express Lanes from CPTC. The 91 Express Lanes is now operated under a contract with CGM. Organization of the Report The following is a brief description of the contents of each chapter: Chapter 1- Study Introduction Chapter 2 — Traffic and Revenue History— Presents a summary of traffic count data in the 91 Express Lanes and in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes. This data was used in developing and calibrating the forecast models. Chapter 3 — Socioeconomic Forecasts — Describes the methodology and assumptions used to assess future development in the Orange/Riverside County areas. Chapter 4 — Model and Network Development — Explains the methodology used to forecast traffic for the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. Describes the key network changes between traffic model analysis years, and describes the hourly simulation model. Chapter 5 — Hourly Simulation Model Traffic and Potential Revenue — Presents the base case toll structure and the resulting traffic and revenue for the 91 Express Lanes. Project Description The 91 Express Lanes, shown in Figure 1-1, is a four -lane, 10 -mile toll road built in the median of California's Riverside Freeway / SR -91 between the Costa Mesa Freeway / State Route (SR) -55 and the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 interchange in the west and the Orange/Riverside County line in the east. The Riverside Freeway / SR -91 is located in a narrow valley between the Chino Hills and the Santa Ana Mountains in the Cleveland National Forest and connects Orange and Riverside Counties. There are no other competing freeways in the immediate area; the closest competing freeway is State Route 60, which is approximately 10 miles to the north. The Riverside Freeway / SR -91 carries east -west traffic between Riverside and Orange Counties, and continues into Los Angeles County. In the Riverside County portion of the Study Area, the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 has eight general purpose lanes and two HOV lanes. Between the Orange/Riverside County line and the Costa Mesa Freeway / SR -55, the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 has eight general purpose lanes and four toll lanes, called the 91 Express Lanes. The 91 Express Lanes project was one of four privatization demonstration projects allowed by Assembly Bill 680 in the early 1990's. It was the first experience in the United States of a high occupancy toll lane, which allowed HOV-3+ vehicles at reduced rates, and single occupant vehicles at full toll rates. The 91 Express Lanes was also the first toll facility in the United States which used all electronic toll payment, and which has had significant peak period pricing increases. — 1-1 Freeway Study Area Figure 1-1 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates The 91 Express Lanes have variable tolls depending on the time of day. Until May 19, 2003, HOV-3+ vehicles were charged 50 percent of the scheduled toll rates throughout the day. Beginning on May 19th, HOV-3+ vehicles travelled for free during all periods except weekdays 4-6 PM in the eastbound direction. There are no intermediate access points along the 91 Express Lanes. Between the Costa Mesa Freeway / SR -55 and the Orange Freeway / State Route (SR) -57, the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 has six general purpose lanes plus two HOV lanes. Users of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor have a choice at the entrance of the 91 Express Lanes either to pay the toll to use the 91 Express Lanes, or to use the general purpose lanes for free. The 91 Express Lanes customers pay tolls from pre -paid accounts using FasTrak electronic transponders. There are no tollbooths on the 91 Express Lanes. Tolls are collected electronically at vehicle's full speeds in the "toll collection zone" by overhead transponder readers. The toll collection zone widens from two to three lanes in each direction, and HOV-3+ vehicles pass a visual inspection in the leftmost lane to ensure that there are three or more persons in the vehicle. 1-2 DRAFT FINAL 91Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates 2. TRAFFIC AND REVENUE HISTORY This chapter presents detailed traffic and revenue information for the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes and the 91 Express Lanes. Data presented includes average weekly traffic, average daily traffic, and annual traffic volumes. Annual gross potential toll revenues are presented for recent years. Historic Global Traffic Volumes Traffic in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor is separated between the general purpose lanes and the 91 Express Lanes. Vehicles not paying a toll and travelling on the four general purpose (toll -free) lanes in each direction are referred to as the general purpose traffic. Those paying a toll to use the two toll road lanes in each direction are referred to as the 91 Express Lanes traffic. The sum of the two streams of vehicle traffic is called the global traffic volume, and it represents all vehicles using the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. Figure 2-1 illustrates the average daily global traffic volumes by calendar year in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor at the Orange/Riverside County line as reported by Caltrans since 1980. A national recession in 1981 and 1982 clearly shows its impact on global traffic volume in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. However, the vigorous expansion of the economy in the 1980's is reflected by high global traffic volume growth levels in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. During the period between 1982 and 1991, there was a large growth in global traffic volumes in the Riverside Freeway / SR - 91 corridor due to increased commuter traffic caused by employment growth in Orange County and available, more affordable housing in Riverside County. During this nine- year period, the average daily global traffic volumes grew from 90,000 in 1982 (Source: Caltrans, "Traffic Volumes on California State Highways") to 208,000 in 1991, which is an average annual growth rate of approximately 10 percent per year. hi the early 1990's, a recession of the national economy slowed down the growth of economic activity in Southern California, and in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. The expansion of the national economy from 1992 to 2001 was one of the longest in our nation's history; however, the local economy in Southern California was not as strong. Nationwide, according to most economists, we are coming out of a recession that began in 2001. The reduced interest rates have sparked housing development nationwide, and this trend is reflected in Riverside County, which has driven traffic levels on the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. The 91 Express Lanes opened on December 27, 1995, and provided an additional four lanes of capacity in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor to allow for traffic growth. The average daily global traffic volume in 1995 was 207,000 vehicles. By 1997, the global traffic volume had grown to 229,000 vehicles. In October of 1998, the ETC opened, which provided an alternate toll road route from Riverside County to southern Orange County. 2-1 300,000 250,000 E 75 • 200,000 tom, c.. eet • 150,000 cs a) GA cc! 100,000 O 50,000 0 Fig ure 2-1 SR 91 Corridor Historical Avg Daily Traffic Volume Trends 1980-2003 Recession CD N a a a Co O Q O a a O 0 O O O O 00 O 00 00 N 00 00 ■Giobal A DT *Estimated Li] a a a O a O O O 00 00 00 Ln J v U1 10 0 a Co O O 0 00 CO 00 Recession ■ i N 0) O N co a a O a a a N a O O O N O v a a a N O a 0 a N N a O 0 \O �D VD 1/4. 0 1/4.0 1/4 .0 O - N W Vii o Source: Caltrans Calen dar Year N N co O a O N a J 00 N a C7 O Recession N 0) O 0 O a N . a O O N 41. O a a N co as 0 0 - O O O O a O O O Location: Orange/Riverside County Line DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Based on the average daily traffic volumes, global traffic volumes have grown at an average annual rate of approximately 3.5 percent per year since the opening of the 91 Express Lanes. Global and 91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic Volumes The overall historic daily traffic volume review will focus on the years since the 91 Express Lanes' opening. Figure 2-2, however, presents a sample of the average global daily traffic volumes as reported by CGM for the period between March, 1999 and August, 2003. Each data point represents the average daily global traffic volume for one week's traffic. Between March 1999 and March 2001, the majority of the average daily global traffic volumes ranged between approximately 220,000 and 230,000 two-way vehicles. Some of the lower data points shown in the figure include holidays that would bring the average week's volume down. Between March 2001 and September 2002, the average daily global traffic volumes increased steadily up to approximately 260,000 vehicles. Average daily global traffic volumes in 2003 are currently at approximately 260,000 two-way vehicles per day. Figures 2-3 and 2-4 present the weekday and weekend daily traffic for the 91 Express Lanes since the toll road's opening. Friday traffic volumes can be identified as the set of points that are slightly higher than the rest of the weekday traffic volumes. The weekend traffic volumes are significantly lower than the weekday traffic volumes. When the ETC, which only provides access to the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes approximately 3 miles west of the Orange/Riverside County line, opened in October of 1998, traffic volumes on the 91 Express Lanes dropped by approximately 16 percent after the initial impact in the first month. The toll on the ETC at Windy Ridge is currently $2.25 using a transponder and $2.50 with a cash payment. The ramps connecting the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 with the ETC can only be accessed from the general purpose lanes, and thus those vehicles who want to access the ETC can not use the 91 Express Lanes. This 16 percent decline, which occurred at the time of the ETC opening, was not symmetric, as more vehicles in the westbound direction shifted than those in the eastbound direction. The ETC connection provides a more direct route to job centers in Irvine and southern Orange County from Riverside County than the alternate route of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 to the Costa Mesa Freeway / SR -55, which is often congested, especially on the Costa Mesa Freeway / SR -55. During the afternoon return trip, many vehicles select the 91 Express Lanes in order to avoid the congestion where the ETC merges with the eastbound Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes. This eastbound merge causes the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes traffic to back up and create delays, especially during peak periods when there are high volumes entering the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes from the ETC. Since the opening of the 91 Express Lanes, toll rates have been increased eight times. These toll rate increases are all shown on Figure 2-3 along with the 91 Express Lanes daily traffic volumes since the toll road's opening. A review of Figure 2-3 shows that it is difficult to identify the dates on which toll rate increases were implemented, since the 2-2 Figure 2-2 SR -91 Average Global Daily Traffic Vol umes (Mar 1999 to A ug 2003) 300,000 Global Traffic Volumes 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 1 ■ ■ M ■ ■ ■ ■ C G V O sO 4 •Global Traffic Volume z G V I ■ ■ i 1 ■ ■ 1� 11 ■ ■ ■ ■ 1 1111 11.�';' ■■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 1 ■ CD Z O CD Sour ce: CG M z O N 50,000 45,000 40,000 ? 35,000 30,000 C ,4 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CA Figure 2-3 91 Express Lanes Weekday Dail Traffic Volumes A • • A AAA t • A 7 A Toll Increases !♦•A ETC Opening tie Aer liltAA ; • • ♦ • • • A A A !• ♦ • • • A • • • • • a♦ !le=t: IAA / 1:411 II IIAIM AAA •L•• • ♦♦ ♦♦A♦ HOV-3+ Free Excep! W,kok% • EB 4-6pm ••• • • • • • Total V olu me 0.0 d 0 Ch d 00 crIF 00 cm d ,o Date d as 0 0 0 So urce: CGM d O d 0 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 E 30,000 rn 25,000 0. 20,000 [ 5,000 Fig ure 2-4 91 Express Lanes Weekend Daily Traffic Volumes • • • Toll Increases ♦ • • ll A ♦ !♦til!•!•!lilil !A tAAA*A AA IL A iteilit10,000Ait AAAilla At ■ ♦'� 5,000 0 -y • Total Volume A AA 00 cra 00 ETC Opening • ` :1AtAAARAii A AAA Ai motiLi AArAi4ZittrAI AA t VD a crq Date A So urce: CGM HOV-3+ Free Except Wkday EB 4-6pm • • • rr- • 1♦ ♦i ♦ TMll♦`A •4 A ■A •=! ♦. A! ! A A♦!♦♦•♦►•♦ ♦ ,1 ♦ *AI t ♦Alt• MA ♦*it ♦` •♦ • ♦±#•!A• A • A :f 0 N cra N d n N DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates weekday daily traffic volume on the 91 Express Lanes only shifted moderately. From the data on this chart, it can be concluded that the traffic volumes using the 91 Express Lanes are relatively inelastic, that is, not very sensitive to the change in toll rates. In effect, the toll rate increases were used to manage the traffic growth during the peak hours. The inelasticity to toll rate increases on the 91 Express Lanes is likely attributed both to the unpredictability of the conditions on the general purpose lanes and the frequency of use in the 91 Express Lanes, as well as the overall growing demand. Many of the users of the toll lanes do not use the 91 Express Lanes every day they commute. Since the 91 Express Lanes are not necessarily used every day, an increased toll rate makes a less significant impact over a weekly or monthly commuting pattern. For this reason, users can respond to the actual travel conditions in the general purpose lanes to determine whether or not to pay the toll. One day they may use the 91 Express Lanes and the next day they may not. As tolls have increased, the 91 Express Lanes users who remain may have become accustomed to the cost of travel based on the expectation of free flow traffic• conditions, and thus perhaps less elastic over time. The average overall daily market share of vehicles using the 91 Express Lanes is currently approximately 11 percent of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 average daily global volume. Market shares approach 30 percent during peak hours (the 91 Express Lanes represent about 35 percent of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor's capacity) when volumes are greater and traffic is more congested, and are less than 5 percent during offpeak periods of no congestion. Table 2-1 presents the average daily global and 91 Express Lanes traffic volumes for 1996 to present. The average annual growth from 1996 to 2003 is approximately 10.5 percent per year for the 91 Express Lanes, and approximately 3.5 percent per year for the global traffic volumes. Between 2001 and 2002, the 91 Express Lanes traffic volumes grew approximately 15 percent, while the global traffic volumes grew by approximately 7 percent. The drop in 91 Express Lanes average daily traffic and market share in 1999 is directly attributable to the opening of the ETC. 2-3 DRAFT FINAL 91Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Table L-1 Calendar Year Average Daily Traffic 91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic Volumes Global Average Daily Traffic Volumes 1996 13,900 212,000 1997 23,300 229,000 1998 25,500 224,000 1999 20,300 224,000 2000 21,500 1 230,000 2001 22,600 246,000 2002 26,100 264,000 2003* 28,000 268,000 *Estimated based on data thrnii oh A„ at g HOV-3+ Vehicles HOV-3+ vehicles currently travel for free during all hours except weekday eastbound 4-6 PM, during which time they receive a 50 percent discounted toll rate on the 91 Express Lanes. At the toll collection zone, the two lanes expand into three and HOV-3+ vehicles are directed to the leftmost lane to be verified by observation from a toll house adjacent to the 91 Express Lanes. Prior to January 1, 1998, HOV-3+ vehicles traveled for free at all times. Between January 1998 and May 19, 2003, all HOV-3+ vehicles traveled at 50 percent of the normal toll rate. The current HOV-3+ vehicles policy was implemented on May 19, 2003. Figure 2-5 shows the HOV-3+ vehicles shares for all weekdays since the opening of the 91 Express Lanes. For the first few months of operation, the share of HOV-3+ vehicles using the 91 Express Lanes ranged between 20 and 25 percent on a weekday. (The single data points located above the clustered points usually correspond to holidays or other unusual days of travel. Regular weekday market share values are in the clustered regions). During 1997, the share dropped to between 15 and 20 percent. When HOV-3+ vehicles began to be charged at 50 percent of the applicable toll rate in January 1998, the overall global composition of HOV-3+ vehicles remained the saine, but the 91 Express Lanes share changed to between 10 and 15 percent on the weekdays. Since the change in OCTA's HOV-3+ tolls in May, there has been an increase in HOV- 3+ vehicle users in the 91 Express Lanes. Comparing June and July between 2002 and 2003, the overall traffic volumes grew just over 8 percent. The HOV-3+ vehicle volume grew by 31 percent, while the full toll volume grew only 4 percent. The overall weekday share of HOV-3+ vehicles on the 91 Express Lanes has grown from 10-15 percent to between 16-18 percent on a typical weekday. Since the change in HOV-3+ tolls, weekend HOV-3+ vehicles shares have changed from 20 to 30 percent to between 25 to 35 percent daily shares. 2-4 i 60% 50% 10% 0% • ♦ • • • Figure 2-5 Weekday 91 Express Lane H OV-3+ Percentages_ HOV-3 + Free except Wkday EB 4-6pm • AA • Willi !I A A Ai A A lilleiliiiiiiii • Begin tolling HOV-3+ • • AA • • ♦♦ • • ♦ • • • •♦ • • • ♦ A♦ • • A A tA Ail �!AlA titi�il�s` AA I� ♦♦♦♦♦A♦♦A♦♦►A ♦♦♦♦♦♦ A♦AA A AAA AAA AAAAA ♦AA ♦,AAAAAAA♦♦►AAAAA AAL LA AAL♦ ♦♦♦♦LAALAA ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦ A♦ d C) • HOV-3+ a> d a a d> > d> a d> a d a> d a> *CIvc, nCD am 0 7 as 0 -, u4 0' d CD ag 7 0? c77, a,� J � cccc 00 p O o O O ON Date d 0 0 0 N W W DRAFT FINAL 91Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates As shown in Figure 2-5, there are obvious peaks on holidays such as Christmas and Thanksgiving, and the summer months tend to have a slightly higher carpooling rate than the remainder of the year. Transponders The request for new transponders has recently begun to level off. Figure 2-6 tracks the number of 91 Express Lanes transponders in circulation since January 1996 when the 91 Express Lanes had recently opened. Transponder growth has followed 91 Express Lanes growth trends. Shown in Table 2-2, OCTA has its largest concentration of transponders in circulation (year 2003) in the cities of Corona (17 percent) and Riverside (13 percent). The remaining 70 percent of OCTA's transponder customer base is scattered within Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties. The next largest city concentration is in Huntington Beach and Anaheim in Orange County, which each have just under 3 percent of the OCTA transponders in circulation. It is not necessary to use a transponder issued by OCTA to use the 91 Express Lanes. In 2002, TCA customers accounted for just under 24 percent of the traffic on the 91 Express Lanes. This number has increased from 15 percent in 2000 and from just under 20 percent in 2001. In 2001, the number of accounts and transponders had begun to level off, at approximately 130,000 transponders in circulation for about 97,000 accounts. Since the beginning of April, 2002, there has been an increase in the number of transponder accounts, and consequently the number of transponders. Between April, 2002 and September 2002, there was a 3 percent increase in the number of OCTA transponder accounts, and approximately 3.5 percent increase in the number of OCTA transponders over the six month period. In August 2003, there were over 141,000 transponders in circulation for slightly more than 102,000 accounts. Between April, 2002 and August, 2003, there has been just under 5 percent increase in OCTA transponder accounts, and just over 7 percent increase in the number of transponders. The corresponding growth in 91 Express Lanes traffic volumes over this period from April 2002 to August 2003 is approximately 15 percent. This is compared to a 1 percent increase in the number of transponders over the prior year (April, 2001 to April 2002). Different transponder account options have been established in order to encourage 91 Express Lanes frequent users and to recover costs associated with infrequent users. These transponder accounts options were established by the previous private operator and have been maintained by OCTA. The three main transponder account options include the 91 Express Lanes Club, the Standard Plan, and the Convenience Plan. The 91 Express Lanes Club is primarily for customers who use the 91 Express Lanes for more than 20 one-way trips per transponder per month. In this transponder account option, there is a $20 per transponder charge per month, and the customers receive a $1 discount for each trip on the 91 Express Lanes. The Standard Plan is designed for customers who use the 91 Express Lanes between 2 and 25 times per month. The Standard Plan charges a minimum of $7 in 91 Express Lanes tolls per month per transponder. The Convenience Plan has been established for customers who charge less than $7 per month per transponder on the 91 Express Lanes. The Convenience Plan currently charges a one - 2 -5 Figure 2-6 Total Number of OCTA Transponders in Circulatio n 160000 140000 120000 ea cl jj100000 .. y CO PO 80000 b © CL y b El 60000 d F C 40000 20000 0 - d I I 1 1 T 11 11 T 1 I 1 1- o IC) tl�o 10 10 O I O O I O O O O 1/440O, �O� v J 00 00 00 VO 10 �p O O p �-` O N 0 N WO 01v 00 1 S u ce: CGM N W Date Note: Estimates b/w 9/02 and 8/03 Transpo nders in Circulation Accou nts Table 2-2 OCTA Transponders by City Rank City Tags % of Tac_s 1 CORONA 24,428 17.3% 2 RIVERSIDE 18,857 13.4% 3 HUNTINGTON BEACH 3,996 2.8% 4 ANAHEIM 3,891 2.8% 5 TEMECULA 3,840 2.7% 6 MURRIETA 3,656 2.6% 7 ORANGE _ 3,416 2.4% 8 LONG BEACH 3,176 2.2% 9 IMORENO VALLEY 3,151 2.2% 10 NORCO 2,828 2.0% 11 SANTA ANA 2,776 2.0% 12 LAKE ELSINORE 2,314 1.6% 13 NEWPORT BEACH 2,166 1.5% 14 REDLANDS 2,158 1.5% 15 COSTA MESA 1,808 1.3% 16 IRVINE 1,779 1.3% 17 SAN BERNARDINO 1,598 1.1% 18 CHINO HILLS 1,389 1.0% 19 FULLERTON 1,369 1.0% 20 GARDEN GROVE 1,360 1.0% 21 PERRIS 1,338 0.9% 22 TORRANCE 1,294 0.9% 23 CANYON LAKE 1,248 0.9%. 24 ONTARIO _ 1,201 0.9% 25 TUSTIN 1,072 0.8% 26 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 1,029 0.7% 27 FONTANA 1,017 0.7% 28 _ WILDOMAR 1,009 0.7% 29 HEMET_ 977 0.7% 30 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 965 0.7% 31 YORBA LINDA 903 0.6% 32 PALM DESERT 889 0.6% 33 HIGHLAND 812 0.6% 34 CHINO 794 0.6% 35 CYPRESS 793 0.6% 36 MIRA LOMA 790 0.6% 37 MENIFEE 749 0.5% 38 PLACENTIA 743 0.5% 39 REDONDO BEACH 741 0.5% 40 BUENA PARK 729 0.5% 41 LAKEWOOD 726 0.5% 42 YUCAIPA 663 0.5% 43 WESTMINSTER 654 0.5% 44 COLTON _ 650 0.5% 45 LOS ANGELES 641 0.5% 46 SUN CITY 631 0.4% 47 'CERRITOS 593 0.4% 0.4% 48 IBREA 568 49 SAN PEDRO 558 0.4% 50 ALTA LOMA 527 0.4% 51 MISSION VIEJO 525 0.4% 52 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 507 0.4% 53 PALM SPRINGS 506 0.4% 54 SEAL BEACH 462 0.3% 55 LOMA LINDA 438 _ 0.3% 56 LOS ALAMITOS 423 0.3% 57 MANHATTAN BEACH 403 0.3% 0.3% 58 RANCHO MIRAGE 395 59 VICTORVILLE 377 0.3% 60 LAQUINTA 365 0.3%I 61 RIALTO 356 0.3% Other 21,177 15.0% TOTAL 141,194 r 100.0% DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates time fee of $75 per transponder, with no minimum monthly charge requirement. The Convenience Plan provides some additional flexibility to infrequent 91 Express Lanes users who have transponder accounts established with OCTA. Daily Traffic Variations Overall traffic volumes vary in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor, depending on the time of day and the day of the week. During the week, the traffic peaks in the westbound direction in the morning, as commuters drive from Riverside County and San Bernardino County to work in Orange County and Los Angeles County. During the afternoon, the peak traffic flow direction is in the eastbound direction when commuters return to Riverside County. On Friday afternoons, the peak volumes occur for a longer period, when commuters as well as weekend getaway travelers use the Riverside Freeway / SR - 91 corridor. During weekends, there is a less defined peak, as travel is distributed evenly throughout the day. Hourly Traffic Profiles 91 Express Lanes hourly traffic volumes vary from day to day and from month to month. The following figures are samples of May typical weekday (Monday to Thursday) hourly traffic volumes taken from 91 Express Lanes counts from 1999 through 2003. Figure 2- 7 shows the eastbound 91 Express Lanes hourly traffic volume patterns. Overnight, 91 Express Lanes traffic volumes are in the single digits per hour. Starting at approximately 5 AM, the off-peak direction traffic volumes increase to approximately 200 — 300 vehicles per hour, until about 11 AM. Traffic volumes peak in the eastbound direction at approximately 3,000 vehicles per hour between 4-6 PM. Since 1999, the most significant hourly traffic volume growth in the 91 Express Lanes has occurred during the peak hours, since during the off-peak hours, there is still adequate capacity in the general purpose lanes. Figure 2-8 shows the historic hourly traffic volumes for an average May weekday in the westbound direction. Since 1999, the 91 Express Lanes peak period traffic volumes have remained more constant than in the eastbound direction. The peak in the westbound direction occurs between 7-8 AM, and the hourly traffic volumes reach just over 1,500 vehicles per hour. In 2002 and 2003, there have been increases in traffic volumes during the midday and afternoon hours. On Friday afternoons, weekend vacation trips are combined with the regular eastbound commuting trips to create a longer and flatter peak period. The westbound traffic volumes are similar to the regular weekday patterns. Friday eastbound and westbound traffic volumes are shown in Figures 2-9 and 2-10, respectively. Operating Characteristics The operating characteristics of the 91 Express Lanes vary and are dependent on the conditions present on the adjacent Riverside Freeway / SR -91 general purpose lanes. This section describes the conditions on the general purpose lanes; as congestion increases, the use of the 91 Express Lanes increases as well. An existing Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor diagram (not to scale) is shown in Figure 2-11. 2-6 3,500 3,000 2,500 g 2,000 0 1,500 1,000 500 Figure 2-7 91 Express Lanes Average May Weekday EB Traffic Vol umes 0 N w .p N O O O O O O O O O O 9 J 00 O O O O O O O O -x'99 -6--'00 -x -'0l -0-'02 -4-'03 N O O O O O O O O O 4 Hour Beginnin g N W 000000 000000 a a 3,500 3,000 2,500 E 0 1,500 1,000 500 Fig ure 2-8 91 Express Lanes Average May Weekday WB Traffic Volumes N O O O\ :] 00 14? [J W 4 N O\ J 00 \O O O O O O O O O O O : N O O O O O Co "Co O O O co co O co co co co O co co co O O O O O co co co co >>>>> a a a O O ro b b b b o ed b b b 4 -'99 -3-'00 -x'01 -0-'02 -0-'03 Hour Beginnin g 3,500 3,000 2,500 cu 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Figure 2-9 91 Express Lanes Average May Friday EB Traffic Volumes s- • N w 41. to N O O O O O O O 00 O O O O O O yO x'99 x'00 -x'01 -0-'02 --'03 00 \C 01 J 00 �O O O N O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O b b b b b b b b Hour Beginning 3,500 3,000 2,500 tu 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Figure 2-10 91 Express La nes Average May Friday Wit Traffic Volumes 0 -r O v 99 \ w - CAcn O O O •O O O a a a > -x'99 -4-'00 x'01 x'02 --'031, N La A to ON J 00 O O O O ~ N O O •O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Hour Beginning O - •O O Figure 2-11 CALIFORNIA'S SR -91 (RIVERSIDE FREEWAY), ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES, 2002 LAYOUT EAST OFSR•ILLSE . arnICHAWW ,2 EXPRESS LANES (EXP) a 3 GENERAL LANES It'ENI WE87B01240 MS), 2 EXP a IGEN 857001.240 [EB1. LAKEv1EW X32 283,43 P26L: WM V. 2 EXP a 5 08 ER PAPERIAL HWY TD WFIE rzitLEMBil 2EXP IIGEN WS, 281.114, IIN EB, �I— t AT 5R -2'I- 4 OENA 2DIP E84 WEL 4 - -0. Ai— SR-2ST riolt 1 TO graSMANY- MAIL 2 EXP, 4GENI 1 AUX 84 WB, AUX a SPLIT FROM1GEN =ME LANES TO S¢F24Y. lit l 1 11 1"11110P Sin Bernardino C, Rhreaida Co l NI 4— pRANGSRIVFF 110E COUNTY 4084 28P ES & WO BECOMES a GEN a THOV EB 1MB WHEN TRAVELLING FRTIMI WESrTO EAST t 1 l I l ay t I j WEIR CANYON RD TV fiflAtilICILLY FEXP,IGEN a IACIX E84 W8. ALE4 BPUT FROM IGEN BEOGMEY LANES TO 55141. 110FIC144 aOTr? EuKrar084 IMSVEXP ESA WB 1 t t 1 P-71 (CHINO VALLEY FAEEWAYI TOO- LS: THB AREA EXPERIENCES NEAVY NCdrWO WB TAAFRC OURNG THE AU RUSHANRHF,JWY WESTBOUND EXIT ACTIVITY 0CIR4 G THE PM RUSH, 4 OENl 1HOV EB,5 GENa 1HOV WB. 1 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates In the westbound direction, the most congested portions of the Riverside Freeway / SR - 91 corridor occur in Riverside County east of the 91 Express Lanes. There are many entry and exit ramps and therefore, high merging volumes, to and from the City of Corona, at all of the interchanges between the Corona Freeway / I-15 and Corona Expressway / SR -71. Along this portion of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91, known as the Corona Bottleneck which extends west to the Orange/Riverside County line, there is one HOV lane and four general purpose lanes, and speeds are often slow or at stop and go conditions. When westbound vehicles reach the 91 Express Lanes entrance at the Orange/Riverside County line, they have already experienced the bulk of the congestion and traffic in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor, and some are willing to stay in the general purpose lanes, knowing that the conditions become less congested after the ETC entrance ramps exit from Riverside Freeway / SR -91 in a short distance. This explains the imbalance between the westbound 91 Express Lane traffic volumes (1,500 — 1,700 vehicles per hour during peak) and the eastbound volumes (3,000 — 3,300 vehicles per hour during peak). During peak hours, there are periods of congestion in the westbound general purpose lanes. In the eastbound direction, between Costa Mesa Freeway / SR -55 and Imperial Highway / State Route (SR) -90, general purpose lane speeds vary but generally operate close to free flow. Starting at the Imperial Highway interchange, traffic slows as the queue formed behind the eastbound entrance from the ETC backs up the general purpose lane eastbound traffic. This eastbound congestion continues beyond the ETC due to the Corona Bottleneck area and high exit and entry volumes in the City of Corona in Riverside County. Congestion is alleviated slightly by traffic exiting to Corona Expressway / SR -71 and the Corona Freeway / I-15. Origin Destination Patterns in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 Corridor The Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor has been perceived as a "bridge" across the mountains connecting the bedroom communities in Riverside County with the job base in Orange County and Los Angeles County. A recent origin -destination survey prepared for a consortium of government entities in Southern California ("State Route 91 Commuter Survey", October 2002 by Transfomation Systems, Inc., Consilium Associates, National Research Center, Inc.) confirmed this perception. A survey of vehicles using the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor from 4-10 AM shows that the vast majority of trips originated from home (97 percent of westbound trips) and were destined to work (92 percent of westbound trips). The table showing the results from this survey for all purposes of trips is presented in Table 2-3. Westbound in the morning, 87 percent of all global trips originated in Riverside County and 83 percent of all trips had destinations in Orange County. Table 2-4 presents a summary of these origin and destination patterns during the morning peak. 2-7 DRAFT FINAL 91Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Table 2-3 Summary of AM Trip Purpose Trip Purpose Origin of AM Trip ' Destination of AM Trip Westbound Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Home 96.8% 88.5% 1.6% 8.7% Work 2.3% _ 9.9% 91.6% 74.1% Personal Business 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 1.8% School 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% Shopping 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% Social/Recreation 0.4% 0.5% 2.4% 8.3% Other 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 5.6% ourcc: State Route 91 Commuter Study, October 2002 Table 2-4 Summary of AM Origins and Destinations County Origin Destination Westbound Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Riverside 87% 0% 0% 65% San Bernadino 13% 0% 0% 35% Orange 0% 90% 83% 0% Los Angeles 0% 10% 17% 0% . State Route 91 Commuter Study, October Consistent with the high congestion of travel in Orange and Riverside Counties, travelers on the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 began their trips westbound early to minimize the traffic congestion on their trip as much as possible. As shown in Table 2-5, more than 60 percent of all westbound trips in Riverside County began their trips prior to 7 AM. As perceived by the drivers in the State Route 91 Commuter Survey, the average duration of their commute was 75 minutes (with more than 30 percent having average commutes over 90 minutes) and covered 40 miles. The average travel speed on their commute was just over 30 miles per hour for the whole trip. Table 2-5 Start Hour of AM Peak Trips Hour Westbound Eastbound 12AM - 4AM 2.3% 1.9% 4AM - 5AM 16.3% 6.8% 5AM - 6AM 21.6% 13.8% 6AM - 7AM 22.2% 29.0% 7AM - 8AM 17.5% 25.7% 8AM - 9AM 13.1% 13.8% 9AM - 10AM 6.2% 7.9% LOAM- 11AM 0.8% 1.1% ource: State Route 91 Commuter Study, October 2002 Overall, approximately 22 percent of all respondents reported having used the 91 Express Lanes for the survey trip; 15 percent of respondents traveling eastbound and 26 percent of respondents traveling westbound used the 91 Express Lanes. It is important to note that 2-8 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates the surveys were conducted during the AM peak period, during which time the westbound trip is the most congested; results were not focused on the PM eastbound trips. Regarding frequency of travel, only 40 percent reported to use the 91 Express Lanes five days per week, with an equal number using the 91 Express Lanes once or twice per week. Commuters make their decision to drive the 91 Express Lanes based on existing travel conditions, previous experiences, schedule concerns, and mode of transportation (public, carpool, etc). Toll Rates Toll rates are set as a function of traffic demand in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor. Since the tolls are all collected electronically, the toll prices can vary from hour to hour and day to day based on a predetermined toll schedule. OCTA's adopted toll policy emphasizes optimal vehicle throughput at free flow speeds as well as an accommodation of expected growth in travel demand. Hourly traffic volumes are tracked over a 12 -week period. When hourly volumes consistently reach or exceed 3,200 vehicles per hour per direction, tolls are adjusted to maintain a predictable level of service. Figure 2-12 details the existing toll schedule, which was implemented on August 1, 2003. Since the 91 Express Lanes opened on December 27, 1995, toll rates have been increased eight times. The increases were made by the previous private operator when traffic in the 91 Express Lanes consistently reached around 80 percent of the lane's theoretical capacity (91 Express Lane capacity is 2,100 vehicles per hour per lane; 80 percent is approximately 3,400 vehicles per hour in the 2 lanes) during the peak hours, in order to avoid diminished speeds. The toll rates have thus been used to maintain free flow traffic. Figures 2-13 through 2-16 show the history of the hour by hour toll rates for eastbound and westbound Wednesdays and Fridays. It can been seen that shoulder hour (the hours before and after the peak hours) toll rates have been increased over time to eliminate congestion in the 91 Express Lanes conditions. Overnight toll rates have been increased 300 percent since 1995; peak hour/peak direction tolls have been increased up to 120 percent, and off-peak hour toll rates have been increased by some 240 percent. Figure 2-17 shows 91 Express Lanes Friday daily traffic volumes from January 1999 to August 2003. During this time span, there were five toll rate increases. The peak hour toll rate began at $3.20; was raised to $3.50 on January 31, 1999; raised again to $3.75 on March 26, 2000; raised a third time to $4.25 on January 2, 2001; raised again to $4.75 in November 2001 and finally to $5.50 on August 1, 2003. It is difficult to identify the toll rate increase locations without the labels, which indicates that the 91 Express Lanes daily traffic volumes did not change significantly due to the various toll rate increases and continued growth in demand. The peak hour toll rate was increased by almost 72 percent over five years, and, as the 5-6 PM hourly volumes show in Figure 2-18, there are no noticeable declines in tolled traffic during the peak, either. The other periods of the day and days of the week had the same overall resistance to toll levels, therefore the traffic stream is considered to be relatively inelastic to the toll rates. 2-9 Figure 2-12 91 Express La nes Westbound T oll Schedule (effecti ve August 1, 2003) Hour Starting Day Sun Mon '' Tue Wed Th u I Fri Sat Midnight $1.00 1:00 AM _ 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 4:00 AM $1.90 $3.10- 5:00 AM $3. 20_ 6:00 AM $3.30 $3 .20 7:00 AM $3.60 $3 .50 $1.45 8:00 AM $1. 45 $3. 30 $3.20 $1 .70 9:00 AM $2.65 $2 .05 10:00 AM $2. 05 $1.70 11:00 AM $2.30 N oon 1:00 PM $2.30 1 2:00 PM 3:00 PM $2.05 4:00 PM $2. 45 $2 45 5:00 PM 6:00 PM $2. 40 $2.05 7:00 PM $2. 05 $1.70 8:00 PM $ I. 00 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM 91 Express Lanes Eastbound Toll Sched ule (effective Aug ust 1, 2003) Hour Starting Lay Sun I Mon Tue I Wed Thu Fri ' Sat Midnight 1:00 AM $1.00 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 6:00 AM $1 .70 7:00 AM 8:00 AM $1.35 9:00 AM 10:00 AM $2 .05 $2.05 11:00 AM Noon $2 .40 $2.50 $2 .40 1:00 PM $2-25 $2 .50 $3.90 2:00 PM $3 .25 $3 .35 $4 .75 3:00 PM $2.05 $3.50 $3.75 4:00 PM $4.25 $4 .75 $5.50 5:00 PM $4 .75 6:00 PM $3 .50 I $3 .65 I $3.75 $3.95 $4.25 $2.05 7:00 PM $2 .50 $3.55 $3 .95 $1 .70 8:00 PM $1 .70 $2 .55 $3 .55 9:00 PM $2 .25 10:00 PM $1 .00 $1.70 11:00 PM 69 EA 69 64 11:00 PM 10:00 PM 9:00 PM 8:00 PM 7:00 PM 6:00 PM 5:00 PM 4:00 PM 3:00 PM 2:00 PM bA + 1:00 PM 12:00 PM• -a ii 11:00 AMI.g D� 10:00 AM: 3f 9:00 AM 8:00 AM 7:00 AM 6:00 AM 5:00 AM 4:00 AM 3:00 AM 2:00 AM 1:00 AM 12:00 AM -r -0czt N � w' — • a) et a) 01 11:00 PM 10:00 PM 9:00 PM 8:00 PM 7:00 PM 6:00 PM 5:00 PM 4:00 PM 3:00 PM 2:00 PM 1:00 PM ,E 12:00 PM•a 11:00 AM2 10:00 ANA f 9:00 AM 8:00 AM 7:00 AM 6:00 AM I 5:00 AM 4:00 AM 3:00 AM 2:00 AM 1:00 AM 12:00 AM 0 0 0 0 0 7 M N 6010i 69 ecz it) ia z bA z rin z cu ♦ • 0 0 0 � M N ($)1101 11:00 PM 10:00 PM 9:00 PM 8:00 PM 7:00 PM 6:00 PM 5:00 PM 4:00 PM 3:00 PM 2:00 PM 1:00 PM • - 12:00 PM .E 11:00 AM 10:00 AM 9:00 AM 8:00 AM 7:00 AM 6:00 AM 5:00 AM 4:00 AM 3:00 AM 2:00 AM 1:00 AM 12:00 AM o c�- r EA 0 0 yr (s) Hoi 11:00 PM 10:00 PM 9:00 PM 8:00 PM 7:00 PM 6:00 PM 5:00 PM 4:00 PM 3:00 PM 2:00 PM bA 1:00 PM .E 12:00 PM °E c3i i i' 11:00 AM C Ip 10:00 AM © 9:00 AM 8:00 AM ' 7:00 AM 6:00 AM 5:00 AM 4:00 AM 1 3:00 AM 2:00 AM 1:00 AM 12:00 AM IU A J} Aep!IOLI ouunp JIK JO 5awnI0 A MOB :a;ON 66-u1f 66-XMAI 66-un f 66 -2nd 66-P0 66-00(1 00 -gad 00-1dd 00-unf 00 -2nd 00-100 00-o U I TA.O-ga3 I 0 -.add I0-unf i 0-5nd 10 -PO I 0-00G ZO-god ZO-Idd £0 -god £0-1dd £0-un f £0-$nd ■ 1 I ■ Daily volume CA O O O O O O O O O O ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ N ■ it • ■. ■ 'w/ ■ o _ ■ i CD cn oil -. 74 o w. mi rD � N ■■ i ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Z 0CD 6- 0 66-u3 f c 66-JPJAI F 66-icEIN 66-unf ■ 0 66 -2nd 66-P0 66-33U 00 -Gad 00-Jdd 00-un f 00 -end 00-100 00-00U I 0-9ad /410 -.add ce 10-un f I 0-2nv 10-100 I 0-30U ZO-90d - ZO-unf Z0 -2nd ZO-100 ZO-33(1 £0-aad £0-1dV £0-un f £0-�11d Daily Vol ume u, O Cn p ui O O O O O O O O O ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■■ ■ ■ • ■ ■ • ■ ■ I ■ ni ¢. • • ■ �I ■ 01 • ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ • % ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ COI o CD 11, o CD 5 cn CD 00 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer. Associates Weekly Traffic and Potential Revenue Figure 2-19 shows historic weekly 91 Express Lanes traffic and revenue volumes from the end of December 1995 to August 2003. Again, is it difficult to identify the toll increase locations in the weekly traffic, showing the continued growth in demand and historic inelasticity to the toll rate increases. The corresponding weekly potential toll revenue is also plotted on this chart. It is evident that the increase in traffic volumes since mid -2002 has generated an increase in revenue. Both weekly traffic volumes and the potential weekly revenues are at their highest point since the 91 Express Lanes opened. Summer daily volumes on the 91 Express Lanes have reached 39,000 vehicles, a volume that has not been recorded since before the ETC opened in October 1998. HOV-3+ vehicle activity has increased since the May toll change allowed HOV-3+ vehicles to travel for free during all periods except eastbound 4-6 PM during which time HOV-3+ vehicles are charged 50 percent of the scheduled toll. Comparing June and July (HOV- 3+ vehicles free for the entire period) from 2003 to the same months in 2002, HOV-3+ vehicle activity has increased by just over 30 percent, while the full toll vehicles increased approximately 4 percent. The overall 91 Express Lanes traffic growth for June and July is approximately 8.5 percent between 2002 and 2003, while the gross potential revenue has dropped by just over 4 percent for the same time period. Calendar year-to-date (August) 2003 traffic volumes are approximately 10 percent higher than for the same time period in 2002. Revenues are up just under 3 percent (HOV-3+ vehicles paid 50 percent of the scheduled toll until May 19, 2003). Gross potential revenues assume that each vehicle that passes the toll point on the 91 Express Lanes pays the toll charged. Gross potential revenue does not include revenue from membership fees, minimum charges, or toll evasion or fines on loss of revenues from violations. All revenues in this report refer to gross potential revenues. 2-10 600,000 500,000 400,000 a '00,000 200,000 Figure 2-19 91 Express La nes Weekly Traffic a nd Revenue • A il" 1111 pili1 ! .• f� •.1 ■1 Toll Increases ETC Ope ni ng • i/ AA AAAAAt aiAci&A Ai i• ■• • • • • • AtAlAkAi A • •• ♦ • • • 4 A • d •= iA AA*2 ••Ai`! '� !A------ •• AA i •�I • • • • ■ • • • • 111 •!Iuuu1iilit�tiii�1ii1111r; "II •• 100,000 �1i,� . 11 K L W K — A so sc Weekly Traffic —A— Potential Weekly Revenue C CC CC co CO 0 Cc C C C yC Date C O 0 O • • 1..1111111: U m,1'1A■� • ■ C C 0 C CD 0 C C 0 N CD 0 N ,4 NJ w C C 0 DRAFT FINAL 91Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Annual Gross Potential Toll Revenue The most significant source of revenue for the 91 Express Lanes is from gross potential toll revenue. Taking into account the traffic by time of day and multiplying it by the toll rate charged at that time produces the "gross potential" toll revenue for the 91 Express Lanes. HOV-3+ vehicles are either charged at 50 percent of the standard toll rate or not charged, according to toll policy. The gross potential revenue is a measure used in this report to track historic as well as to project future demand. Table 2-6 presents historic and estimated gross potential toll income for the 91 Express Lanes. Table 2-6 Annual Gross Potential Revenue Calendar Year Gross Potential Toll Revenue 2000 $18,656,300 2001 $21,152,600 2002 $26,027,114 2003* $26,400,000 *Estimated — using Aug '03 toll rates for full calendar year Future Annual Gross Potential Revenues are projected on a fiscal year basis. 2-11 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Volhner Associates 3. SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS Introduction This chapter summarizes PB Consult's assessment of the demographic forecasts used in the traffic forecasting model underlying the Vollmer traffic and revenue forecast for the 91 Express Lanes. The assessment process consisted of a review of metropolitan planning agency forecasts and preparation of an adjusted forecast that reflects the consultant team's view of future demographics and development in the "Study Area" as defined by Vollmer. The Study Area consists of Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties and parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties referred to as the "Inland Empire." I Consistent with the level of effort prescribed for this assessment, maximum use was made of Metropolitan Planning Organization ("MPO") data and supporting materials. Adjustments were made to their forecasts on an exception basis and selectively in areas that would have the greatest impact on future Riverside Freeway / SR -91 operations. As a basis for forecast refinement, selected interviews were completed with local officials, land owners, developers, real estate brokers and allied professionals. Nationally and regionally recognized projections of economic development for the United States, California, and the Study Area were reviewed. In addition, a high level land use review was conducted in major project areas that are expected to sustain large concentrations of future growth in Orange County and the Inland Empire. The OCTAM 3.1 Transportation Analysis Model The following is a discussion of the demographic forecast used by the OCTA as an input for its current transportation model known as OCTAM 3.1. Demographic and development data comes from two sources: the Center for Demographic Research at Cal State, Fullerton and the Southern California Association of Governments ("SCAG"). Consists of the portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties that border Los Angeles and Orange counties to the west, extending east along the Riverside/San Bernardino border approximately 60 miles to the eastern border of the San Bernardino National Forest (approximately 3 miles before I-10 intersects SR 111, west of Palm Springs). The Inland Empire area extends north in San Bernardino County past the intersection of I-15 and SR 138 and conforms to the San Bernardino National Forest boundary from the Los Angeles County line clockwise to the San Bernardino/Riverside County Border. The Inland Empire area boundary continues south from this point into Riverside County following the eastern boundary of the San Bernardino National Forest across 1-10 where it continues south along the western border of another part of the San Bernardino National Forest approximately 30 miles. The Inland Empire border continues south through Riverside County along R3 to where it intersects SR 79 then southeast along SR 79 to the San Diego County border, which is the southern boundary. 3-1 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates The Orange County Projections Series ("OCP"), produced by the Center for Demographic Research at the California State University of Fullerton since 1996, is a "bottom -up" forecast for Orange County from 2000 to 2025. The OCP forecast was first undertaken in 1978 to provide a single set of projections for local government agencies in Orange County to use in planning activities and to give the SCAG a refined set of projections for Orange County to include in its regional growth forecasts. The OCP methodology begins with projections of population, employment and occupied households at the county level. Jurisdictional revisions are made to this countywide forecast after approval by the Center for Demographic Research Technical Advisory Committee and Management Oversight Committee as well as the Orange County Counsel of Governments Technical Advisory Committee and Board of Directors. Revisions to this forecast are submitted to the Center for Demographic Research by each city in Orange County. Orange County itself provides the data for unincorporated areas. The Center for Demographic Research disaggregates the data geographically into 1,658 Traffic Analysis Zones ("TAZ") in Orange County based on observed market considerations, land capacity and local policy considerations. The OCP forecast is updated every two to four years. The most recently approved OCP series, OCP 2000, has a base year of 1998 and is the forecast for Orange County that has been evaluated. SCAG, the Southern California area MPO, produces forecasts of Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in addition to receiving the OCP forecast from Orange County. The SCAG forecast is assembled in similar fashion to the OCP methodology with jurisdictional reviews of large area forecasts and coverage of the period 2000 to 2025. The SCAG forecast, consisting of 1,282 TAZs, was used by PB Consult as the baseline forecast for Ventura and Los Angeles counties as well as the Inland Empire. It is updated on a two to four year cycle, the most recent being SCAG series RPT 2001, with a base year of 1997. The SCAG forecast combined with the OCP forecast consists of 2,940 TAZs in Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties and the parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties within the Inland Empire. Together, this dataset is the socioeconomic input format used for the OCTAM 3.1 model. 3 -2 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Following is a list of the 15 variables that are inputs to the OCTAM 3.1 model. Total Population Resident Population Group Quarters Population Resident Employed Population Occupied Single Family Dwelling Units Occupied Multifamily Dwelling Units School Enrollment University Enrollment Persons per Household Retail Employment Service Employment Other Employment Acres Median Household Income Licensed Drivers Critical fields in the database — households and at place employment — were reviewed in terms of other national and regional forecasts, data from the 2000 US Census, the California Economic Development Department and other government reporting agencies. Macro growth rates for the counties and capture rates within sub -county areas ("Regional Statistical Areas" or "RSAs") were reviewed. Population was adjusted based on expected changes to households. Base Year 2000 Employment Validation To validate the 2000 base year at the Orange County level, the consultant team compared the OCP and SCAG data set to 2000 at place employment data collected by the California Economic Development Department ("EDD"). Steps were taken to conform the Study Area geography and definition of employment to those used by OCP and SCAG including adjusting the EDD employment data up by 9.8 percent to account for the self employed. This adjustment was based on the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy estimation of the proportion of self employed workers in Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in 2000. Table 3-1 shows this comparison. The result of this validation exercise was that the OCP and SCAG forecasts for 2000 were not materially different from the actual data reported by the EDD. The largest percentage difference between the SCAG forecast and the EDD data for 2000 was in Ventura County, which is distant from the 91 Express Lanes and therefore not material to the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor forecast. 3-3 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Table 3-1 Year 2000 Comparison to US Census and California EDD Data Total Wage and Salary Employment EDD Self Employment Geographical EDD after PB Consult Year 2000 Adjustment Adjustment Adjustments Base Year 2000 /1 /2 /3 Los Angeles 4,038,000 4,476,718 4,476,718 4,418,778 Orange 1,387,900 1,538,692 1,538,692 1,482,679 Riverside 440,500 488,359 103,532 384,827 371,264 San Bernardino 539,500 598,115 126,800 471,315 482,800 Ventura 275,700 305,654 305,654 322,095 Total 6,681,600 7,407,539 230,333 7,177,206 7,077,616 PB Consult as a Percent of EDD 98.7% 96.4% 96.5% 102.4% 105.4% 98.6% Total Population Census Geographical Census 2000 after PB Consult 2000 Adjustment Adjustments Base Year 2000 /3 Los Angeles 9,519,338 9,519,338 9,829,438 Orange 2,846,289 2,846,289 2,862,038 Riverside 1,545,387 327,622 1,217,765 1,238,969 San Bernardino 1,709,434 362,400 1,347,034 1,327,852 Ventura 753,197 753,197 740,460 Total 16,373,645 690,022 15,683,623 15,998,757 PB Consult as a Percent of EDD 103 3% 100.6% 101 7% 98.6% 98,3% 102.0% Total Occupied Dwelling Units Census Geographical Census 2000 after PB Consult 2000 Adjustment Adjustments Base Year 2000 /3 Los Angeles 3,133,774 3,133,774 3,132,498 Orange 935,287 935,287 933,864 Riverside 506,218 107,318 398,900 391,223 San Bernardino 528,594 112,062 416,532 413,493 Ventura 243,234 243,234 239,985 Total 5,347,107 219,380 5,127,727 5,111,063 PB Consult as a Percent of EDD 100.0% 99.8% 98.1% 99.3% 98.7% 99.7% /1 California Economic Development Department July 2000 figures by county /2 California EDD figures are inflated by 9.8% to account for self employed workers /3 PB Consult estimates that approximately 79% of development in Riverside and San Bernardino counties fall within the Study Area (the western parts of the counties designated in this report as the Inland Empire) 100% of Orange. Los Angeles and Ventura Counties within Study Area Base Year 2000 Household and Population Validation US Census data of households and population for the Study Area was reviewed finding that there were no material differences between it and the OCTAM 3.1 input at the Orange County level. Table 3-1 shows that the year 2000 household and population totals for the Study Area differed by 0.3 percent and 2.0 percent respectively. For the small area validation, data from the US Census 2000 at the Census Tract level was compiled and converted to SCAG TAZ units using an equivalency file provided by SCAG. This data set was compared to the `Occupied Dwelling Unit' and `Population' data provided by SCAG and the Center for Demographic Research at the California State University of Fullerton. An analysis was performed to identify TAZs where numbers of households reported in the US Census differed from equivalent forecast data by greater than positive or negative 3-4 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates 500 units or 10 percent. These outliers representing approximately 40 Census Tracts and 95 OCTA TAZs were analyzed individually. Based on field research and interviews, adjustments were made at the TAZ level to increase or reduce households to conform with equivalent Census counts. Key Drivers of the Consultant Team Forecast In conjunction with a local land use expert, field investigations were conducted to identify major development trends and economic factors that will influence how rapidly the Study Area and the counties will grow and where future jobs and households will be located. Significant findings follow: 1. The present "jobs -housing" imbalance between Orange County and the Inland Empire will persist with the result that commutation pressures among the three counties will persist throughout the forecast period. 2. Steps will be taken in Orange County by regulators and developers to expand housing choices among structure types and ownership forms in response to market demand from newly forming professional households, larger families, particularly among a growing numbers of Hispanic households, and the growing number of "empty -nesters" who seek high amenity urban living opportunities. 3. The absence of a new transportation corridor with equivalent capacity to the present Riverside Freeway / SR -91 facility will result in fewer new jobs in Orange County (as employers find they cannot successfully recruit because of impossibly long journey to work trips). Correspondingly, there will be the emergence of "primary" employment (in addition to population -serving employment) in the Inland Empire. The passage of the Measure A sales tax referendum in 2002 (30 year extension of the 1/2 cent sales tax referendum to fund transportation infrastructure improvements in Riverside County) is expected to provide the resources to fund the intra-county infrastructure necessary to support this growth in primary employment. 4. As a corollary, the practical limitations on creating moderately priced housing in large enough numbers in Orange County and the shift of primary jobs to the Inland Empire will support a very robust housing market in the Inland Empire throughout the period. 5. The current economic downturn has persisted through 2003 and will be followed by a moderate recovery beginning in 2004. The result will be 350,000 fewer jobs in 2005 in the Study Area than forecast in the OCTAM 3.1 input. In 2005, Orange County will have 89,000 fewer jobs and Riverside and San Bernardino counties will have 48,000 and 35,000 fewer jobs respectively. This short term outlook has been confirmed with July 2003 EDD employment data for the trailing 12 months showing that Orange County has added only 1,500 jobs while Riverside and San Bernardino counties gained just under 25,000 jobs. These levels of job growth may be compared to average annual job growth over the past 5 years of 33,840 in Orange County and 43,260 in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. 3-5 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study VolbnerAssociates 6. Infill and redevelopment in Orange County will contribute to the continued growth of employment and new households especially after 2015. Study Area Employment Forecast Employment growth in the Study Area is forecasted to be 2.69 million jobs over the 25 - year period from 2000 to 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 1.3 percent. This forecast reflects the affects of economic cycles that will occur between 2000 and 2025 as well as a period of slow economic growth through 2005. Through 2005, Orange County employment will be grown at 1.27 percent annually, increasing to 1.88 percent between 2005 and 2010, and decreasing gradually to 1.04 percent in the 2020 to 2025 period. Orange County will add 581,420 jobs between 2000 and 2025, an average annual increment of 23,257. The Inland Empire portion of Riverside and San Bernardino counties will grow much faster at 2.97 percent in the 2000 to 2005 period, 3.40 percent in the 2005 to 2010 "recovery" period and sustaining strong growth between 2.80 percent and 3.00 percent thereafter through 2025. The Inland Empire will more than double its job base between 2000 and 2025 adding 951,867 jobs over the period, averaging 38,074 annually. The above average employment growth rates in the Inland Empire will result from the addition of "population serving" jobs, such as health and educational services and retail jobs that follow in areas of strong residential development. Additionally, the high cost of doing business in established Orange and Los Angeles county job centers will cause some migration of companies (and related "primary" employment) to the Inland Empire. While commercial development in the Inland Empire will over time provide jobs for the residents of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, heavy commutation to Orange County via the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor will continue throughout the forecast period. The team forecast of 2025 employment in Orange County, shown in Table 3-2, is 1.0 percent, 20,464 jobs, higher than the OCTAM 3.1 Base Input. PB Consult's forecast for the Inland Empire is 5.7 percent, 98,041 jobs, higher than the OCTAM 3.1 Base Input. Table 3-2 Employment Forecast 2000-2025 All Forecast Years Total Wage and Salary Employment Annual IPB Consult Forecast 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 4,418,778 4,480,866 4,717,234 4,972,878 5,223,232 5,474,688 42,236 0 86% Orange 1,482,679 1,579,326 1,733,960 1,844,851 1,960,424 2,064,099 23,257 1 33% Riverside/1 371,264 436,653 525,030 608,568 707,942 824,828 18,143 324% San Bernardino 11 482.800 552 186 643 672 742 920 847 363 981 103 19.932 2 88% Ventura 322,095 337,153 357,399 379,029 401,114 421,360 3,971 1 08% Total 7,077,616 7,386,184 7,977,295 8,548,246 9,140,075 9,766,077 107,538 1.30% Total Increment All Forecast Years 2,688,461 3 -6 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Study Area Household Forecast Household growth in the Study Area is forecast to be 1.52 million units between 2000 and 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 1.05 percent. In broad strokes, a higher proportion of the new homes built in more developed areas (68 percent in Los Angeles County) will be attached units while areas in the Inland Empire will see strong single family unit growth. Over the 25 -year forecast period, 55 percent of new homes in Orange County will be attached units although multifamily unit production will not outpace single family unit production until after 2010. Residential development through 2005 in Orange County will increase 0.90 percent annually, 1.10 percent between 2005 and 2010, then slow gradually to 0.62 percent in the 2020 to 2025 period. Much of the residential growth in Orange County after 2015 will result from infill development and redevelopment of older properties as many cities are at or approaching their zoned capacity. This is reflected not only in the reduced growth rate in total units in the out years of the forecast but the higher percentage multifamily units delivered. In total, Orange County will add 217,915 households between 2000 and 2025, an average annual increment of 8,717. The Inland Empire portion of Riverside and San Bernardino counties will grow annually at 2.92 percent between 2000 and 2025, peaking at 3.42 percent between 2005 and 2010. The Inland Empire will add 847,713 households between 2000 and 2025, averaging 33,908 annually, approximately 73 percent of which will be single family units. Much of the residential building in the Inland Empire will be at the extreme western end of Riverside and San Bernardino counties in areas with highway access to job centers in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties such as Chino and Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County, and the I-15 corridor south of Corona to the Lake Elsinore and Temecula areas. The consultant team's 2025 forecast of households in Orange County, shown in Table 3- 3, is 8.0 percent, 85,550 homes, higher than the OCTAM 3.1 Input. The PB Consult forecast for the Inland Empire is 18.6 percent, 259,353 homes, higher than the OCTAM 3.1 Input. Table 3-3 Housing Forecast 2000-2025 A/II Forecast Years Total Occupied Housing Units Annual PB Consult Forecast 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 3,132,498 3,202,474 3,292,428 3,382,377 3.457,337 3,522,301 15,592 0 41 . Orange 933,864 976,853 1,031,834 1,076,814 1,116,795 1,151.779 8,717 08.1 ,. Riverside11 391,223 473,299 587,294 683,051 778,807 874,564 19,334 3 214. San Bernardino 11 413.493 461 720 519.324 582.287 658 646 777 865 14.575 2 5f,°.. Ventura 239,985 251,983 268,982 280,981 293,979 305,976 2,640 0 98 Total 5,111,063 5,366,329 5,699,862 6,005,510 6,305,564 6,632,485 60,857 1.05% Total Increment All Forecast Years _ 1,521422 3-7 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates The distribution of people among the counties in the Study Area forecast of population follows the reasoning behind the housing forecast. The PB Consult 2025 forecast of population is 3.8 percent and 19.7 percent higher than the OCTAM 3.1 Input for Orange County and the Inland Empire respectively. Table 3-4 shows the PB Consult population forecast. Implied in the team's 2025 forecast for the Study Area is a higher person per household ratio of 3.1 (compared to 2.86 for the OCTAM 3.1 Input) which is consistent with the increasing Hispanic population in the Study area which traditionally has had larger households. Table 3-4 Population Forecast 2000-2025 All Forecast Years Total Population Annual PB Consult Forecast 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 9,829,438 10,048,477 10,330,054 10,611,614 10,846,254 11,049,606 48,807 0 47% Orange 2,862,038 2,996,603 3,168,706 3,309,505 3,434,654 3,544,160 27,285 086% Riverside 11 1,238,969 1,495,886 1,852,716 2,152,455 2,452,193 2,751.932 60,519 324% San Bernardino /1 1 327 852 1 478.813 1 659 126 1 856 216 2 095,236 2.468.418 45 623 2 51% Ventura 740,460 778,018 831,228 868,786 909,473 947,028 8,263 099% Total 15,998,758 16,797,797 17,841,830 18,798,575 19,737,810 20,761,144 190,495 1.05% Total Increment All Forecast Years 4,762,387 Survey of Economic Projections National, state and regional economic forecasts were examined and their underlying drivers considered in projecting employment and households in the Study Area. In all cases, the consultant team has a more constrained view of employment growth by 2005 with 7.4 million Study Area jobs. This results from the depth and persistence of the present recession which were not taken into account by the other forecasts. Table 3-5 compares the employment forecasts. On an average annual basis, the SR -91 forecast is at the lower end of the spectrum with gains averaging 108,000 new jobs vs. upwards of 140,000 — 150,000 by two of the other services. Orange and the Inland Empire together should expect just over 61,000 jobs annually. This estimate is slightly higher than NPA Data services but considerably lower than DRI-WEFA which is predicting close to 70,000 new jobs annually. Table 3-6 shows that the SR -91 forecast of 60,857 is considerably lower than NPA and DRI-WEFA as well. For Orange County and the Inland Empire, the consultant team forecast of 42,600 units per year is lower than CCSCE and NPA Data Services but higher than DRI-WEFA. The trends portrayed in Tables 3-5 and 3-6 reflect the team's view that slow growth will continue throughout the Study Area in the short-term, housing development in Orange County will slow in the latter part of the forecast period, and that Riverside and San 3-8 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study VollnterAssociates Bernardino counties will experience strong employment and household growth throughout the study period. In the case of Los Angeles County, the forecasts of job growth range from a low of 33,000 jobs annually to a high of 92,000. The SR -91 forecast for the County of 45,000 jobs each year is toward the lower end of the range and reflects some uncertainty about the County's ability to recover historic levels of job growth having failed to do so during the boom periods of the mid to late 1990's. Table 3-5 Employment Forecast Comparison 2000-202.5 Average Annual Forecast Increment CAOR 11 UCLA Anderson /1 12 /4 2000 2005 2010 2015 _ 2020 Los Angeles 4,514,149 4,858,156 5.440,848 5,906,378 6.360.379 92,312 1 73% Orange 1.539 673 1.657.006 1 855.749 2 014 530 2 169 380 31.485 1.7346 Riverside 476.302 512.599 574,081 623.201 671 104 9,740 1 73% San Bernardino 619,394 666,596 746,548 810,424 872,718 12,666 1 73% Ventura 304 853 328.084 367.435 398.874 429.534 6 234 1 73% Total 7.454.371 8.022441 8.984.661 9.753.407 10.503.115 152.437 1.86% Total Increment All Forecast Years 3,048,744 CCSCE /1 /2 2000 2005 2010 + Los Angeles 4,471,897 4.911,087 5,393,418 92,153 1.89% Orange 1.525 260 1.675.059 1 839 571 31 431 1 806, Riverside 471.804 518 142 569.030 9.723 1,6994 San Bernardino 613,545 673,803 739,979 12,643 1.896 Ventura 301.999 331 659 364.232 6.223 1.899 Total 7,384,500 8,109,750 8,906,230 152,173 1.89% Total Increment All Forecast Years 1,521,730 NPA Data Services /2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Los Angeles 4.404,660 4.557,620 4,760.900 4,931,270 5,090.910 5,237,510 33,314 0.70% Orange 1 508.210 1 745 260 1 963 830 2 138 140 2 283.310 2 421 190 36 519 1 91% Riverside 499,590 563,840 659,370 719,160 768.490 815,130 12,622 198% San Bernardino 579,690 656,510 726,500 781,060 825,830 867,370 11,507 1.02% Ventura 314 160 357 870 397 690 428.550 453.570 476.680 6.501 1 60% Total 7,306,310 7,901,100 8,508,290 8,998,180 9,422,110 9,817,880 100,463 1.19% Total Increment All Forecast Years 2,511,570 DAl-WEFA /2/5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Los Angeles 4,648,519 5,065,621 5,407,997 5,730,691 6,057,874 6,298,177 65,986 1,22% Orange 1 597 377 1 807 948 1.993.590 2.185 434 2 403.933 2.616.960 40 783 1 99% Riverside 521,926 604,805 660,592 718,864 783,390 854,754 13,313 1 99% San Bernardino 626,907 722.286 785,637 856,314 934,723 1,019,749 15,714 1 97% Ventura 341.549 373.405 396.272 420 833 448.553 478.383 5.473 1 ,,30% Total 7,736,278 8,574,065 9,244,087 9,912,137 10,628,474 11,268,022 141,270 1.52% Total Increment All Forecast Years 3,531,745 PB Consult Forecast/3 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Los Angeles 4,418,778 4,480,866 4,717,234 4,972,878 5.223,232 5,474,688 42,236 0,86% Oranae 1 482.679 1.579 326 1.733.960 1.844 851 1 960 424 2 064 099 23 257 1 33% Riverside 371,264 436,653 525,030 608,568 707,942 824,828 18,143 3 24% San Bernardino 482,800 552,186 643,672 742,920 847,363 981.103 19,932 2 89% Ventura 322.095 337 153 357.399 379.029 401.114 421.360 3.971 108% Total 7,077,616 7,386,184 7,977,295 8,548,246 9,140,075 9,766,077 107,538 1.30% Total Increment All Forecast Years 2,688,461 11 Based on the representative proportions of each county's share of wage and salary employment in 2000 according to CA Economic Development Department 12 Contains all of Riverside and San Bernardino counties /3 Contains parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties included in the Inland Empire 11 Adjusted upward by 9 8% to include self employeed /5 Adjusted upward by 9.4% In in(dride government workers and rempve farm nmploYment 3 -9 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Table 3-6 Housing Forecasts Comparison 2000-2025 All Forecast Years Average Annual CCSCE 2000 2005 2010 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 3,127,584 3,287,122 3,454.798 32,721 1.00% Orange 931,016 1,007,919 1,091,175 16,016 1.60% Riverside 510,716 592,060 686,360 17,564 3.00% San Bernardino 526,616 590,027 661,074 13,446 2.30% Ventura 245,466 267,052 290,537 4.507 1 70% Total r 5,341,398 5,744,181 6,183,944 84,255 1.85% Total Increment All Forecast Years 842,546 Average Annual NPA Data Services 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 3.145,040 3,271,100 3,428.810 3,617,450 3,831,900 4.068,970 36,957 1 04% Orange 938,650 1,020,680 1,105,440 1,194,600 1,287,940 1,385,450 17,872 1 57% Riverside 506,040 589,110 668,980 748,580 828,040 907,680 15,986 2 35% San Bernardino 530,490 601,990 672,790 744,050 815,940 888,740 14,330 2.09% Ventura 244,110 266,370 289,230 313,150 338,080 364,050 4,798 1 61% Total r 5,366,330 ' 5,749,250 • 6,165,250 r- 6,617,830 r 7,101,900 r 7,614,890 89,942 1.41% Total Increment All Forecast Years 2,248,560 Average Annual DRI-WEFA 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 3,082,729 3,115,820 3,182,793 3,243,700 3.303,121 3,356,457 10,949 0.34% Orange 904,821 954,038 1,014,534 1,076,258 1,138,965 1,202,469 11,906 1 14% Riverside 444.063 505,277 575.670 648,575 723.970 802,004 14,318 2.39% San Bernardino 494,036 539,370 595,423 648,040 696,826 741,267 9,889 1 64% Ventura 231,653 245,085 260.998 276,044 290,260 303,624 2,879 1 09% Total ' 5,157,302 • 5,359,590 r 5,629,418 r 5,892,617 r 6,153,142 ' 6,405,822 49,941 0.87% Total Increment All Forecast Years 1,248,520 Average Annual PB Consult Forecast 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Increment CAGR Los Angeles 3,132,498 3,202,474 3,292,428 3,382,377 3,457,337 3,522,301 15,592 047 % Orange 933,864 976,853 1,031,834 1.076.814 1,116,795 1,151,779 8,717 0.84% Riverside 391,223 473,299 587,294 683,051 778,807 874,564 19,334 3.27% San Bernardino 413,493 461,720 519,324 582,287 658,646 777,865 14,575 2.56 % Ventura 239.985 251,983 268,982 280,981 293,979 305,976 2,640 0.98% Total r 5,111,063 ' 5,366,329 • 5,699,862 r 6,005,510 • 6,305,564 r 6,632,485 60,857 1.05% Total Increment All Forecast Years 1,521,422 Major Commercial and Residential Developments Development plans for major projects in Orange County and the Inland Empire that will impact the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor have been incorporated as follows: The Irvine Company Major changes to The Irvine Company's ("TIC") development plans consist of relocating much of its planned development from areas along the ETC between the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 and State Route 261 to the area north and east of the former El Toro Marine Base. • Major decreases in development include 3,000 fewer homes and 8,900 fewer employees in an area of north -central Orange County known as East Orange. Much of this area is now designated as open space. 3-10 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates • North of East Orange (east of where the ETC and the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 intersect) the Mountain Park residential program has been scaled back by approximately 4,600 units to 3,100 single family homes. • Commercial development is planned in the area northeast of I-5 at the intersection of Sand Canyon Road. Non-residential build -out of this area, "Spectrum 8," will accommodate close to 27,000 employees. • East of Spectrum 8 is "North Irvine." The plan for North Irvine has been changed to include over 12,000 dwelling units, twice as many as previously planned. In addition to this residential development, approximately 22,000 employees are expected to work in the North Irvine area. MCAS Tustin Project Area The 1,600 -acre Marine Corps Air Station ("MCAS-Tustin"), located in the City of Tustin, closed in 1999. The specific reuse plan calls for a mix of low, medium and medium -high density residential development totaling approximately 4800 dwelling units and commercial development totaling approximately 9.2 million square feet, accommodating 29,000 employees. El Toro Marine Base The former Marine Base (El Toro) is located on the northwest side of I-5, just north of where I-405 veers off to the west. El Toro is planned to be annexed by the City of Irvine for development into the "Great Park" which, according to present plans, will add 3,400 homes, close to 3 million square feet of commercial space and provide 4,000 acres of open space. The Navy has a well advanced disposition process to sell the land in four large parcels to developers and is soliciting through 2003. The City of Irvine will act as a land use authority and is in the process of establishing the necessary plans for the resulting development. The project is expected to take 10 years to be completed. The Chino Airport Area Several large projects in the western part of San Bernardino fall under the umbrella of what is termed the Chino Airport Area in this report. In total 50,300 new households and close to 60,000 new jobs are expected in this area by 2025. Following are descriptions of three of the major projects planned in this area. • The Ag Preserve is a master planned community at a 5,400 acre area south of the Chino Airport. Commercial development will range from "neighborhood retail" to light industrial and airport use space, accommodating 27,000 new employees between 2000 and 2025. The bulk of residential products will be at low and medium densities between 5 and 10 units per acre. Approximately 12,000 units are expected between 2000 and 2025. 3-11 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates • Located to the northeast of Chino Airport, the New Model Colony, a 8,200 acre master planned community will add approximately 25,000 jobs and 35,000 households between 2000 and 2025. • West of the Chino Airport is a 720 acre area, formerly the Chino Institute for Men. Development of this area is expected to total 2,800 dwelling units and commercial building to accommodate 4,200 employees. I-15 Corridor Several sizeable residential developments and light industrial sites are currently under construction along I-15 in western Riverside County, south of the City of Corona. This corridor is developing quickly with 13,400 new homes expected between 2000 and 2015. Though some of these residential developments are marketed towards senior citizens, on site interviews confirmed that many of the buyers of homes in these developments plan to commute to jobs in central and coastal regions of Orange County. Lake Elsinore The City of Lake Elsinore is located in the southwestern portion of Riverside County in close proximity to where State Route 74 crosses from Riverside to Orange County. This area was for many years leisure oriented though now it is expected to grow into a primarily residential area. The consultant team increased residential development in this area to include 46,000 dwelling units between 2000 and 2025, this in response to a review of the Residential Activity Report for the Lake Elsinore general vicinity. 3-12 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates 4. MODEL AND NETWORK DEVELOPMENT VOCTAM Development and Calibration A regional travel demand model was used for the development of traffic forecasts. The model, which the Consultant Team called VOCTAM, was implemented using OCTA's OCTAM 3.1 modeling process. (Extensive documentation of the OCTAM 3.1 model development and validation processes was available from OCTA.) The travel forecasts from the VOCTAM model produce incremental changes in daily traffic volumes. These volumes were used by the Hourly Simulation Model (defined in Executive Summary) to develop detailed traffic and revenue forecasts. The Hourly Simulation Model is described later in this Chapter. OCTAM 3.1 is a traditional four -step travel demand model consisting of trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice and assignment. The trip generation and mode choice steps are implemented using custom Fortran computer programs developed for OCTA. The trip distribution and assignment steps are implemented using the commercial transportation planning software package, TranPlan. At the onset of the project, OCTA and the Consultant Team worked together to identify the appropriate OCTAM 3.1 computer programs and files resident on OCTA's HP Unix server, and to adapt, recompile and test them on DOS/Windows based microcomputers. The Consultant Team obtained control and a working knowledge of all elements of the process necessary to complete production highway travel demand runs. The files required to model the transit system were prepared by OCTA and provided as necessary. The Consultant Team's initial application of the OCTAM 3.1 process was designed to ensure that the process was operating correctly and could accurately reproduce sample runs provided by OCTA. With the exception of some very small rounding differences in the trip generation step, the Consultant Team's implementation of OCTAM 3.1 perfectly reproduced the sample results. Then the Consultant Team undertook the complete examination and evaluation of the highway networks and volume/speed/capacity relationships underlying the process, including a thorough examination of the computer representation of the highway system generally and specifically within the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor and connecting roadways. This examination was undertaken for the base year network (2000) and the forecast year networks (2011 and 2025). As problems were uncovered, they were reported to and discussed with OCTA's modeling staff and solutions were formulated and implemented. During this process, the highway networks in and adjacent to the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor were recoded to provide a more detailed representation of roadway features. The first production application of VOCTAM was a base year run using the enhanced highway network and revised demographic data (discussed in Section 3). The results of this run were subjected to the same analytical tests that were used to validate the base year OCTAM 3.1 runs. This step was necessary to ensure that the VOCTAM model was suitable for use in the development of the traffic forecasts. OCTA validated the OCTAM 3.1 traffic assignments by developing a series of 29 screenlines and comparing the base year traffic counted and estimated for each. A parallel procedure was completed for the VOCTAM results. The results 4-1 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates demonstrated that the VOCTAM model is well calibrated and suitable for forecasting. Table 1, which is included in Appendix 1, contains the results of this model validation step. For all screenlines combined, the forecast volume is within 3 percent of the counted volume. Most individual screenlines are shown to be within +10 percent. Overall, this level of correspondence is well within the normal range of accuracy expected. No screenline is seriously outside the range of expected difference recommended by the research described in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 255. While demonstrating that the geographic assignment is generally correct, it is also important to establish that traffic is being assigned correctly by facility type. Table 2 in Appendix 1 provides a summary, by facility type of how the assigned traffic and count volumes relate statistically. These results were produced by regression analysis requiring that the predictive equation pass through the origin. With this technique, the slope of the regression line describes the amount of over (slope greater than 1) or under (slope less than 1) assignment. The results demonstrate an excellent degree of correspondence at this level. Detailed scatter plots of the individual data points used to develop each equation are also provided in Appendix 1. In parallel with the model implementation/validation work, OCTA undertook an examination of the planned highway improvements in the SR -91 impact area. The impact area is much larger than the Study Area (a five -county area defined on page 3-1), and is bound by Interstate -605 on the west, Interstate -10 on the north, Interstate -215 on the east and State Route -22 on the south. The purpose of this task was to substantiate the details and implementation schedule of all proposed major roadway improvements in the impact area. First, a list was compiled of all proposed improvements. Then meetings were held with senior personnel at the proponent/lead agency to confirm the implementation schedule and year of opening of each project. The complete list of confirmed impact area projects are provided in Tables 4-1 and 4-2. Within the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor, the phased implementation of improvements was drawn from the 2003 State Route 91 Implementation Plan (June 2003). The 2003 State Route Implementation Plan defines the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor as extending from the Riverside Freeway / SR-91/Kraemer Boulevard interchange in Anaheim on the west to the Riverside Freeway / SR-91/Pierce Street interchange in Corona on the east and provides the details of prospective improvements within that corridor for the short (1-5 year), near (6-10 year) and long (over 10 year) terms. Using this report, those projects with a high probability of implementation before 2025 were identified. There are described in Table 4-3. Using these lists of improvements, a 2011 forecast year network was developed. The OCTA constrained future network was modified to reflect the impact area projects expected to be completed by 2011. The second forecast year network set was designed to represent most likely conditions in 2025. It was developed using the OCTA unconstrained future network. All projects contained in Tables 4-1 and 4-2 were included. Finally, production -specific runs were completed to forecast travel demand for the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor using the forecast demographic characteristics for 2011 and 2025. 4-2 DRA FT FINAL 91 Express L anes Traffic and Reve nue St udy Vollmer Ass oci ates Table 4-1 State Highw ay System Impro vement Summary Facility Rt-60 Limits Rt . 57/60 HOV Connector, Old Brea Canyon Road to Grand A venue and Rt-57 Rt-60 Funded Impro vements (STIP) Year of Completio n HOV direct con nectors both directions I-15 to Valley Way, Rt-605 to Brea Canyo n Blvd. R t- 60 Awaiti ng Details Add o ne HOV lane each direction 2003 I-710 to San Bernardino Co . Line Truck lanes, assume two each way In Revenue Model I-10 Rt-605 to Puen te Ave. Rt-10 Rt-57 to San Bernardino Co. Line Rt-55 Rt-22 Rt-22 to Rt-91 Valley View to G lassell R t-71 Rt-71 Rt-71 I-10 to Rt-60 Add one HO V lane each directio n 2003 Add one HOV lane each direction 2002 Add one HOV la ne each direction complete Add o ne HOV lane each directi on full c orridor 2008 Add o ne ge neral purpose la ne Beach to I-5 Mission Blv d/Route 71 Add o ne mixed flow lane and one HOV la ne in each direction, co nvert from expressway to 2003 freeway SB Cou nty line to SR -91 New interchange Awaiting Details Widen to 8 -lane freeway with three mixed flow and one HOV lane in each direction. 2018 Table 4-2 State Route 91 Traffic & Revenue Study Roadway Improvement Summary Community/Agency/Facility Limits of Improvement Year Ilescrip Ion CR'TAM Plot. Added 4 of Lanes per direction Total Lanes per Direction per Assignment Group Added N of per direction 2025 L Corona - Foothill Parkway 11- 215 to Route 91 2020 3 3 N/A N/A N/A 2. Corona - Lincoln Avenue 5th Street to D Street 2004 1 3 N/A N/A N/A 3. Cerritos None noted N/A N/A N/A. 4. Fullerton - Orangelharpe Magnolia to Harbor 2005 1 3 3 2 5. Santa Fe Springs - imperial Highway 'Through City 2005 1 3 3 2 ? 6. Anaheim - Tustin ISR 91 to La Palma 2003 1 3 3 2 - 7. Anaheim - Tustin SR 91 to La Palma 2003 2 4 _ 3 2 ? 8. Anaheim - Serrano INohl Ranch to City Limit (Gap Closure) 2003 2 2 - --•- - 9. Anaheim - Lincoln i1-5 to West Street 2025 I 3 4 2 1 10. Anaheim - Braokhurst 1-S le South City Limit 2025 1 3 3 2 ? 11. Anaheim - Harbor Ball to North Cily Limit 2025 1 3 3 2 7 12. Anaheim - State College Katella to North City Limit 2025 I 3 ----- - --- 13. Anaheim. Imperial I La Patina to N/0 Orangethorye G. Sep 2025 NA NA 3 6 2 14. Anaheim - Gypsum Canyon SR -91 to Eastern Tram. Con. 2025 2 2 - 15. Anaheim - Katelle Smart Street Walnut to Wes City Limit 2025 1 3 3 6 2 16. Anaheim - Ball Road SR -57 to Lemon 2025 1 3 -••• 17. Anaheim - Ball Road Walirnt to West City L' Irma 2025 I 3 �-- ----- 18. Anaheim - Lincoln Avenue 1-5 to Euclid 2025 I 3 3 2 ? 19. Anaheim - Gene Autry 1-5 to Hester _ 2025 2 2 ----- -- - 20. Anaheim Lewis Gyre Autry to Koala 2025 2 2 5 3 2 21. Anaheim - Katella I-5 to East City Limit 2025 1 4 3 2 22. Anaheim - SR -57 Northbotmd Ball to North County Limit Northbound 2025 1 5 - -- ---- 23. Buena Park - Otanethape Stanton to 1-5 Freeway 2010 1 3 3 2 ? 24. Buena Park - Valley View Arrest Blvd to Lincoln _ 2010 1 3 3 2 '? 25. Buena Park - Artesia Blvd Beach to Knott 2010 1 3 - _ --- 26. Pomona Awaiting Response N/A N/A N/A - 27. Fontana Awaiting Response N/A N/A N/A 28. Ontaio Awaiting Response N/A N/A N/A 29. Chino Hills- Peyton Drive 4Voodview to Soquel Canyon Parkway 2003 2 2 Residential Improvements -not imp Chino Hills - Soquel Canyon Parkway Peyton Drive to Pipeline 2003 3 3 'Residential Improvements - not imp Chino Hills - Eucalyptus Ave. Peyton Drive to Galloping Hills Road 2002 I _ I ,Residential Improvements - not imp Chino Hills -Peyton Drive Eucalyptus to SR -142 _ 2007 I _ 2 Residential Improvement -mat imp Chino Hills - Woodview Road Peyton to Soquel Canyon 2004 I Residential Improvements -not imp Chino Hills - Peyton Drive Pain Ranch Rood t5 En yptos 2002 2 6 Residential Improvements - not imp 30. Chino - Chino Avenue San Antonio Creek to Pipeline _ 2001 I 2 Awaiting Details I 31. Riverside County Awaiting Response N/A N/A N/A I 32. Long Beach None noted per review of G Plan N/A N/A N/A 33. Yorba Linda Awaiting Response N/A N/A N/A 1 34. Placentia Awaiting Response N/A N/A NIA 35. Garden Grove - Garden Grove Boulevard Civic Center to Magnolia 2005 I 3 ---- ..... -••. 36. Garden Grove - Katella Smart Street Through City 2005 I 3. _ 3 6 2 37. Garden Grove - Harbor Smart Street Through City 2007 1 3 -- 6 • •.. 38. Stanton Awaiting Reapome _ N/A N/A N A 39. Nome - Valley View mold MIL dd°n Valloy Paliway 2005 2 2 Awating Details _ 40. Norco - Corona extend to Hidden Valley Parkway 2005. 2 2 Awating Details 41. Orange - Main Street 260' N/D Palmyra to 300' S/O Mgpmn. 2009 _ 1 3 3 2 ma 42. Orange - Chapman Avenue Carann to Comm View 2009 I 3 3 _ 2 ' 43. Orange - Chapman Avenue /57 Freeway to Main 2009 1 3 3 2 44. Orange - Le Vet Avenue Main In Batavia 2009 1 3 - _ -•. 45. Placentia - Rose/Tustin 10/0 BNSF R/R to 2500 feet south 2004 1 3 3 2 46. Placenta - Grade Separations Various to be specified N/A N/A N A 47. Yorba Linda - Imperial Highway Rene Drive to Yorba Linda Bouelvard 2002 1 3 6 3 2 _ 48. Yorba Lida -.Imperial Highway Yaba Linda - E wra°aa Road 2002 I 2 1 49. Yorba Linda - Bstarrchury Road Rose Drive to West City Limits 2002 I 2 _ 5 3 50. Yorba Linda - Bastlrcd°y Road extend between Lakeview and Fairmont 2002 2 2 _ 5 3 2 51. Yorba Linda - Bastahcray Road Lorna Lakeview to Casa Loa 2004 I 3 5 3 2 Yorba Linda - Lakeview Road Yorba Linda - Oriente Drive _2010 I 2 5 4 1 53. Yorba Linda - Richfield Road !Kennon Drive to Mariposa Avenue 2010 1 2 Awaiting Details 1 Table 4-3 State Ro ute 91 Implementation Plan (Modeling Assumptio ns) Pro ject No* County* * Locati on _ D esc ri.tion B en efits Plan ned o• anis Cost in Milli ons* ** P ot ential F und ' • Status 3 OC On westbound SR•9l at Lakeview Construct a barter separated on -ramp for southbo und Lake view traffi c to prohibit access to and eliminate weaving to southbound SR -55 _ Reduces merge co nflicts 2008 $ 2 50 STIP , SHOPP*** Pr oject Study Report in development (C altra ns) 7 OC On eastbound SR -91 at the truc k scales neat Weir Canyon Road Co nstruct an eastb ound au xiliary lane approachi ng the truck scale entrance ramp (near Weir Canyon) a nd e astbound auxiliary lane leavi ng the truck scale exit ramp Adds truck storage capacity 2008 8 5 .00 S HOPP Project Study Report in de velopment (Caltrans) 10 OC On westbou nd SR -91 from the Orange/Riverside Coun ty line to SR -241 Extend the westb ound SR -91 auxiliary lane 0.5 pules from its curre nt terminus , locat ed betwe en C oal Canyo n and the SR -241 to the Or ange/Ri verside Co unty lin e Improves operations - eliminates lane dro at Coal Canyo n 2004 $ 6.25 ITIP Under co nstruction - scheduled for openi ng on or before January 2004 (Caltra ns) 11 Riv On westbound SR -91 fro m the SR -71 to the Oran ge/Riverside Cou nty line Restripe/resign westbou nd SR -91 from SR -71 to the Orange/Ri verside C ounty line to create an auxiliary la ne to re duce weaving Red uces wea ving, merge conflicts - smo oths transiti on for those trap e-i1g from SR -71 to SR -241 2004 $ 1 00 Minor A Project Schedul ed for openi ng early 2004 pending i ncl usion in Tra nsp ortati on Improvement Pr ogram (RCTC / Caltrans District 8) 12 OC & Rim On eastbound SR -91 from SR- 241 to SR -71 Ex tend the eastbo und a uxiliary lane from SR -241 to SR -71 _ Mitigates op erati onal deficiencies 2008 8 10.00 1TIP Project Study Rep ort in developme nt (OCT A/Caltrans) 16A Riv On SR -91 at the G re en River Interchange Reconstruct the Green River o vercr ossi ng to lengthen and widen the bridge Provides additional capacity 2008 $ 25.00 STIP Preliminary e ngineening and enviromne nal u nderway 2 OC On westbound SR -91 at Tustin Av enu e Improv e the westbound ramp con nector at SR -91 between the SR -55 and Tu stin interchanges and extend the auxiliary la ne Smooths transition front northbound SR- 55 to westbo und SR -91 2013 $ 62 .50 STIP Pr oject St udy Rep ort in dev el opment (OCTA) 4,5 OC On westboun d SR -91 from SR 241 to hn perial H ighway and on eastboun d SR -91 front Lakeview to SR -241 Add one general pu rpose lan e In addition, in the sectio n eastbou nd fron t Lakev iew to Imperial Highway, add an other general pu rpose lane Adds capacity 2013 $ 125 00 STIR ITIP Pr oject St udy R ep ort in devel opment ( OCT A) 6 OC On we stbound and eastbo und SR -91 along the 91 Express Lanes at about Weir Canyon Ro ad Add in tenn diate access to/from the 91 Ex pres s Lanes Fr ont eastbound gen eral pu rpose lanes, add ingress point betwee n th e truck scales and Weir Can yon Road. Front the westbound 91 Express Lan es, add egre ss point be tween the truck scales and Imperial Highway E nco urages additio nal use of 91 E xpress La nes 2013 S 12 50 STIR Toll Re ve nues Projec: in pr eliminary pla nning (co nceptual plan ning) 9 OC & Riv On westbound an d eastbound SR -91 from SR -241 to SR -71 Add on e gen eral pu rpose la ne Adds capacity 2013 S 37.50 STIP , ITIP Project in prelimi nary planni ng (conceptual planni ng) 15 Riv On westbound and eastboun d SR -91 from the Orange/Riverside Coun ty line to SR -71 A dd one lane (either ge neral purpo se or HOV) Adds capacity 2013 $ 25.00 STIP , ITIP, CMAQ (if V) Project in prelimi nary pla nning (conceptual planning - soft project) 19 Riv On SR -91 westbo und and eastbou nd from SR -71 to Pierce Street Add on e gen eral pu rpose lane Adds capacity 2013 $ 150 .75 Meas ure A Project ns prelimi nary planni ng (co nceptual planni ng) 20 Riv On SR -91 westbo und an d eastbound front SR -71 to Pierce Street Add on e gen eral purpo se or H OV la ne Adds capacity in Riverside Co unty - balances lane configuratio n with Orange County 2013 $ 100 50 STIP, CMAQ (if HOV) Project in preliminary planning (conceptual planning) 22 Riv At SR -91/I-15 confluence Add direct HOV to HOV (carpo ol) co nn ector ramps Impro ves traffic operations 2018 $ 243.00 Measure A Project in prelimina ry plamuna (c onceptual plarhntng l crstde Cnunty Transportation Co mmission, June * Complete pro ject details are included in the adopted State Rou te 91 Implementation Plan, June 2003 ** OC = Orange County, R iv = Riverside Cou nty *** 2002 Dollars DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Hourly Simulation Model Development Historic information was gathered from Caltrans and CGM to develop a static model to develop an hourly distribution of global traffic in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 Corridor. The historic relationships between volumes, speeds and toll rates were all used in order to model the historic hourly traffic, as well as to project future traffic conditions. Hourly Distribution The VOCTAM model does not assign traffic hourly; the output is for periods of traffic (AM peak, Midday, PM Peak and Night). Historic typical global hourly distributions, shown in Figure 4-1, were applied to daily VOCTAM output in order to generate weekday eastbound and westbound hourly volumes in the Hourly Simulation Model. This distribution was generated based on global traffic volumes recorded in 2000 through 2003. As projected volumes exceed capacities during peak hours, the shoulder period growth will increase to allow for the peak to spread without going over capacity. Volume -Capacity Ratio and Speeds CGM provided recorded speed and volume information at the toll collection point at Weir Canyon Road for both the 91 Express Lanes and the general purpose lanes. These data were compiled to develop a relationship between speed and volume -capacity ("v/c") ratios. The capacity for each of the 91 Express Lanes is approximately 2,100 vehicles per lane per hour, and the capacity for each of the general purpose lanes is approximately 1,950 vehicles per hour (difference is caused by the presence of trucks and merging/weaving in the general purpose lanes, which reduces capacity). The 91 Express Lanes capacity is approximately 4,200 vehicles per hour (2 lanes), and the general purpose lanes capacity is 7,800 vehicles per hour (4 lanes). The v/c ratios are calculated by dividing the hourly traffic volume by capacity. The historic data, collected from a sample between 1999 to 2002 of daily recorded speeds and volumes for the 91 Express Lanes and the general purpose lanes in the vicinity of the collection point, are shown in Figure 4-2. For most of the v/c ratios below 0.80, the travel speeds are above 60 mph. The 91 Express Lanes, which are tolled to maintain optimal throughput, have data points that are distributed well below the 0.80 v/c range. As the general purpose lane traffic volumes approach 0.80 and beyond, the speeds begin to deteriorate and become unstable, at which point the speeds decrease significantly. The next figure, Figure 4-3, shows how the actual data relate to the curve developed to model the relationship between the volumes and speeds on the 91 Express Lanes and the general purpose lanes. When the v/c ratio reaches approximately 0.80, the speeds drop off significantly, and any additional volume significantly impacts the speed. The final speed figure, Figure 4-4, shows the curves used without any other data. When the v/c ratio on the 91 Express Lanes reaches 0.80, there are some 3,400 vehicles per hour using the lanes. Optimal throughput can be maintained at a v/c ratio of up to approximately 0.80. Beyond this point, each individual vehicle that is added to the 91 Express Lanes causes conditions to deteriorate, and eventually conditions become unstable. By "unstable", that means in one instance of greater than 3,400 vehicles per hour, the lanes may be in free -flow conditions, 4-4 2uiuu0ag _moll % of Daily Traffic NV 00• ZL m m Wt/00:1. NV 00• Z NV 00:E Wd 00•V NV 00.9 NV 00:9 W`d 00:L NV 00:8 VJV 00:6 NV 00:01. WV 00:14 Wd 00:Z1 Wd 00:1 Wd00:Z Wd 00:E [Aid 00:17 Wd 00:9 Wd 00:9 Wd 00:L Wd 00:8 W d 00:6 hid 00:01, Wd 00:11 o N W 4 o o 0 O 0 0 O CrT eD ~ 100 r • AAA AA ♦alA AA •■A♦ ♦ • • ♦A♦ • i ♦ • •♦ • • • • •A m♦ •• 1r ♦ • • 90 AAletAA 70 • ♦ • 60 •L • • E,U �•: AA • 50 AAA • ♦• 44 /) 40 30 20 10 0 • • • AL Figure 4-2 Speed a nd Volume/Capacity - Data Points • • • ♦• A • • • • • xix:11 544ifixika X • x R4 3( x K x x 0.0 0. 2 0.4 0. 6 0.8 Volu me/Capacity Ratio • 91 Express Lanes D ata * Gen eral Purpose Lanes Data 1.0 1.2 100 A AA AA ♦ ♦Y • A • AA 90 •ilim♦�, ♦ •♦ • • //,,♦ • 1►• ♦l AA • ♦ # 80 • Figure 4-3 Speed Curves - Data and Curves 70 E • ♦V AA • Co 4,4A AA ec AAA 30 20 10 4 ♦ 0 ♦ • • 4 AA • • ♦ • ♦ • • ♦♦ • • • Y• f♦ ♦ ♦SKK K *ilF x 14 • • X * * L 0Go Ox CO v * * X * O * ♦ • *' 0 'X 0 * * X 00000 00000000000000 0 l O 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1 .2 O 9l Express Lanes ♦ Actual Exp O General Purpose Lane Actual Gen Volu me / Capacity Ratio 100 90 80 70 60 5 50 PO a) V1 40 30 20 10 r1 1 Fi 111111111. 1 Figure 4-4 Speed C urves - Cur ves Used e I I1I-re-Ie#-ITI III] II I 0 - 0. 0 tl 0.2 0. 4 0. 6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0 91 Express 1 ants 0 General Purpose Lane V olume/Capacity Ratio DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates but in the next instance at the same volume, speeds could be at stop -and -go. This is not an ideal operating condition. Market Share The relationship between the 91 Express Lanes traffic and the general purpose lanes traffic varies throughout the day, depending on global traffic volumes and the hourly toll rate. To develop a relationship between market share and global volumes, data was analyzed for each historic toll rate. Figure 4-5 shows a series of points plotted (observed market share vs. volume/capacity ratio) for each toll rate against weekday eastbound v/c ratios. These points make up a series of curves that can be applied to global traffic volumes to estimate the traffic volumes that will pay a toll to use the 91 Express lanes. These individual curves for weekday eastbound traffic, shown in Figure 4-6, were developed by estimating a polynomial curve for each existing toll rate's range, and then using toll sensitivity rates to project how the other toll rates would respond at each v/c ratio. For example, when the global v/c ratio is below 0.40, the highest toll charged is $1.00, and a $1.00 curve was developed for this segment of the curve based on existing data for this v/c range. At the other end, the toll rate charged in the 0.85 v/c range is $4.75. To estimate how many people would pay a $1.00 toll at a v/c ratio of 0.85, the $4.75 portion of the curve was used to project the use. Using this methodology, any toll rate can be analyzed for any v/c ratio. Hourly Simulation Model Calibration The hourly simulation model was developed using the assumptions detailed above. The hourly model is used in conjunction with the output from the VOCTAM model, developed for this project and described previously in this Chapter, in order to forecast future traffic and revenue. From this point forward, all annual volumes are reported in Fiscal Year volumes — including model runs and all projections. To calibrate the VOCTAM model, we used the projection model to estimate 2000, 2001 and 2002 conditions, and compare the summary results with actual traffic and potential revenue reported by CGM, shown in Table 4-4, below. Potential revenues assume that each vehicle that passes the toll point on the 91 Express Lanes pays the toll charged. Potential revenues do not include revenue from membership fees, minimum charges, or toll evasion or fines. All revenues in this report refer to potential revenues. Table 4-4 Historic Traffic and Revenue and Simulation Model Fiscal Year (ending June 30) Global Average Daily Traffic Vollmer ---- - CGM Reported 91 Express Lan T Potential Annual Revenue 91 Express L�anT I Potential Annual Revenue Total Collected Toll Revenue' Total Facility Revenue' 2000 232,000 18,200 $15,300,000 20,300 $17,225,000 1 2001 240,000 20,100 $18,000,000 22,145 $19,930,000 $17,897,000 $22,349,000 2002 250,000 23,200 $23,300,000 I 23,850 $23,320,000 $21,630,000 $27,156,000 2003 263,000 27,200 $27,100,000 28,411 $26,560,000 $23,228,000 $28,881,000 Total Collected Toll Revenue is reported annual toll revenue minus violations and other revenue losses - Total Facility Revenue includes enrollment and minimum usage fees, charges for replaced transponders, earnings on account balances, advertising revenues, fees collected for processing violations, etc. Note: Figures reported in this table are Fiscal Year numbers and do not match the Calendar Year numbers reported in Table 2-6 4-5 35% - 30% co 25% CA ele 20% 711 15% I !0% 5% 0% Figure 4-5 Overall EB Market Share Data Points by Toll Rate _ x x • • ■ 0 • ++ O • x Ak ♦ ♦• X • X X X * ♦ ♦ x xX • ♦q� o eh* IN • 0. 0 0.1 0. 2 0.3 0. 4 0.5 0.6 0 .7 0 .8 0 .9 1 .0 Volume/Capacity Ratio ♦ $0. 75 Toll •$1.00 Toll •$1.50 Toll X$1.70 Toll *$2.00 Toll •$2. 25 Toll + $2.50 Toll -$2.95 Toll —$3.20 Toll 0S3.25 Toll ■$3.50 Toll AS3.55 Toll X$3. 65 Toll *3. 75 Toll "$3. 90 Toll +$3.95 Toll -$4.25 Toll —$4.75 Toll Figure 4-6 Overall EB Market Share Curves by Toll Rate 35% 30% Z MIL y 25% Az 20% cit 15% — ct © 10% 5% 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0. 3 0. 4 0.5 0.6 V olume/Capacity Ratio -fit- SO 5-51. 49 51.50-51.99 (52.00 - $2. 74 -1-52. 75-$3.49 S4.00-54.75 54.76-55. 49 '55. 50-56. 24 S. 6.25-$7.00 0.7 S.).50-53.99 0.9 1.0 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates 5. HOURLY SIMULATION MODEL TRAFFIC AND POTENTIAL REVENUE 2000 Base Year Traffic and Potential Revenue The 2000 traffic network was developed using traffic data collected from Caltrans and CPTC. The 2000 toll rates (HOV-3+ vehicles at 50% of the scheduled toll rate) were applied to the estimated 2000 global average daily traffic to develop a typical week's hourly traffic distribution for the 91 Express Lanes and the general purpose lanes. Table 5-1 details a typical weekday (Monday - Thursday) eastbound and westbound hourly traffic as produced by the Hourly Simulation Model. Table 5-2 summarizes the FY 2000 projected base year traffic and potential revenue by day of week and direction. In 2000, the toll rates ranged from $0.75 during the nighttime periods to $3.75 charged during the Friday eastbound peak period (model run uses toll rates effective March 26, 2000). Table 5-2 FY 2000 Base Year Traffic and Potential Revenue Hourly Simulation Model Estimated FY 2000 Base Daily 91 Express Lanes Traffic Potential Daily Revenue Annual 91 Express Lanes Traffic Potential Annual Revenue General Purpose Lane Avg. Daily Traffic Global Average Daily Traffic Weekday EB WB 12,200 $34,000 2,500,000 $6,900,000 103,400 115,600 8,300 $18,000 1,700,000 $3,600,000 109,800 118,100 Friday EB WB 12,600 $39,000 600,000 $1,900,000 113,800 126,500 8,400 $17,000 400,000 $800,000 113,100 121,500 Saturday EB WB 6,200 $10,000 300,000 $500,000 112,800 119,000 7,800 $11,000 400,000 $600,000 111,200 119,000 Sunday EB WB 4,200 $6,000 300,000 $400,000 97,300 101,500 6,100 $9,000 400,000 $600,000 95,400 101,500 Totals 6,600,000 $15,300,000 Weekly 127,300 $300,000 1,496,400 1,623,800 Daily Average 18,200 $42,900 213,800 232,000 Figures 5-1 and 5-2 show the resulting traffic volumes and average speeds on the general purpose lanes and 91 Express Lanes for weekday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Looking at the 2000 weekday eastbound base year conditions, when the traffic peaks in the afternoon, the general purpose lane speeds drop to close to 10 mph. On a typical weekday, the general purpose lanes are congested in the eastbound direction for approximately 4 hours, and in the westbound direction, congestion occurs for approximately 3 hours. At 5 PM, the 91 Express Lanes eastbound volume is at it's highest for the day, and the speed in the 91 Express Lanes dips from the free -flow speed of 70 mph to just above 60 mph. 5-1 Table 5-1 Hourly Simulation Model Results - 2000 Typical Weekday Eastbound and Westbound Traffic and Projected Revenue EASTBOUND Global Volume General Volume Express Lane Volumes Toll Rate Toll Revenue Number of Days Annual Revenue HOV3+ HOV-2 SOV Total Weekday 12:00 AM 1:00 AM 200 AM 752 750 - 1 1 1 2 $ 0.75 $ 2 203'1 305 Weekday 1:00 AM _ 578 576 1 2 $ 0.75 $ 2 203 $ 305 Weekday 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 578 576 - 1 1 2 , S 0.75 $ 2 203 $ 305 Weekday 3:00 AM 4:00 AM _ 983 979 - 2 2 4 $ 0.75 $ 3 203 $ 609 Weekday_ 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 2,602 2558 2 21 _ 21 44 $ 0.75 $ 32 203 $ 6,547 'Weekday 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 4,973 4,798 9 83 83 i 89 ' 175 $ 015 $ 128 203 $ 25,959 ' Weekday 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 5,320 5,133 9 89 187 $ 0.75 $ 137 203 $ 27,786 Weekday 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 5,088 4,901 9 89 89 187 $ 1.50 $ 274 203 $ 55,571 Weekday 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 4.915 4,733 10 86 86 182 $ 1.50 $ 266 203 $ 53.897 Weekday 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 4.684 4,536 8 70 70 148 $ 1.50 $ 216 203 $ 43.848 Weekday 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 11:00 AM 4,741 4,590 11 70 70 151 $ 1.50 $ 218 203 $ 44.305 Weekday Weekday 12:00 PM 5,088 4,901 13 87 87 187 $ 1.50 $ 271 203 $ 54,962 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 5,956 5.703 19 117 117 253 $ 1.50 $ 365 203 $ 74,146 Weekday 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 6.649 6,247 34 58 184 314 184 402 $ 2.00 $ 770 203 $ 156,310 Weekday 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 7,517 6,831 314 686 $ 2.95 $ 1,938 203 $ 393.444 Weekday 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 8,211 6,625 174 706 706 1,586 $ 3.20 $ 4,797 203 $ 973,750 Weekday 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 9,541 7,029 314 1,099 1,099 2.512 $ 3.50 $ 8,243 203 $ 1,673,228 Weekday 5:00 PM 6:00 PM 9,656 6,881 305 1,235 1.235 2,775 $ 3.50 $ 9,179 203 $ 1,863,286 Weekday 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 8,326 6,719 177 715 715 I 1,607 $ 3.20 $ 4,859 203 $ 986,418 Weekday 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 7,343 6,505 96 371 371 838 $ 2.25 $ 1.778 203 $ 360,833 Weekday 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 4,973 4,789 26 _ 79 79 184 $ 1.50 $ 257 203 $ 52,070 Weekday 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 3,469 3,391 12 33 33 78 $ 1.50 $ 108 203 $ 21.924 Weekday 10:00 PM 11:00 PM 2,313 2,284 _ 5 12 _ 12 29 $ 0.75 $ 20 203 $ 4,035 Weekday 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,388 1,377 1 5 5 11 $ 0.75 $ 8 203 $ 1.599 1 Total 115,644 103,412 1.292 5,470 5,470 12,232 '.6 33,869 $ 6,875,437 _ WESTBOUND Global Volume General Volume Express Lane Volumes Toll Rate Toll Revenue Number of Da s Annual Revenue HOV3+ HOV-2 SOV Total Weekday 12:00 AM 1:00 AM 886 879 1 1 3 3 7 $ 0.75 $ 5 203 $ 990 Weekday 1:00 AM 2:00 AM 709 704 1 2 2 5 $ 0.75 $ 3 203 $ 685 Weekday 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 768 763 1 2 2 ' 5 $ 0.75 $ 3 203 $ 685 Weekday 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 1,418 1,406 2 5 5 12 $ 0.75 $ 8 203 $ 1,675 Weekday 4:00 AM 5:00 AM Weekday 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 5,671 5,351 48 136 136 320 $ 1.65 $ 488 203 $ 99,145 7,384 7.008 56 160 160 376 $ 2.90 $ 1,009 203 $ 204,868 Weekday 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 9.274 , 8,116 174 492 492 1,158 $ 3.00 $ 3,213 203 $ 652,239 Weekday 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 9,628 8,421 181 513 513 1,207 $ 3.30 $ 3.00 $ 3,684 $ 3,269 203 203 $ 747,943 Weekday 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 9.097 7,962 91 522 522 1,135 $ 663,506 Weekday 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 7,561 6,957 48 278 278 604 $ 2.25 $ 1,305 203 $ 264.915 Weekday 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 6,498 6.076 42 190 190 422 $ 1.50 $ 602 203 $ 122,105 Weekday 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 5,907 5,574 37 148 148 333 $ 1.50 $ 472 203 $ 95,765 Weekday 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 5,730 5,407 _ 35 144 ' 144 323 $ 1.50 $ 458 203 $ 93,025 Weekday 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 6,025 5,634 43 174 174 391 $ 1.50 $ 554 203 $ 112,513 Weekday 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 6,261 5,854 45 181 181 407 $ 1.50 $ 577 203 117.080 Weekday 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5,907 5,574 37 148 148 333 $ 1.50 $ 472 203 $ 95,765 Weekd! 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6,084 5,689 45 175 175 395 $ 1.50 $ 559 203 $ 113.426 Weekday 5:00 PM 6:00 PM _ 6,202 5,800 58 172 172 402 $ 1.50 $ 560 203 $ 113,579 Weekday 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 5,080 4,832 36 106 106 248 $ 1.50 $ 345 203 $ 70,035 Weekday 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 3.426 3.333 13 40 40 93 $ 0.75 $ 65 203 $ 13,170 Weekday 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 2.835 2,778 9 24 24 57 $ 0.75 $ 39 203 $ 7.993 Weekday 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 2,540 2,490 6 22 22 50 27 $ 0.75 $ 35 203 $ 7,156 Weekday 10:00 PM 11:00 PM 1,949 1,922 _ _ 3 12 12 $ 0.75 $ 19 203 $ 3,882 Weekday 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,300 1.288 2 5 5 12 $ 0.75 $ 8 203 $ 1,675 Total 118,140 109,818 1,014 3,654 3,654 8.322 $ 17,753 $3,603,818 Figure 5-1 2000 Weekday Volumes a nd Speeds 12,000 10,000 8,000 E 3 6,000 0 4,000 2,000 2000 Wkday EB C onditions . s err Mb a Q ¢ a a a 0 0 0 0 0 0 O o O O o o O N V 6 W O N Time o_ a 2 o 2 o_ a mac_ a 0 0 0 CD 0 (Si V (D 6 O 80 70 60 50 40 acui a. 30 CO 20 10 Express Volume O General Volume --- Express Speed General Speed 12,000 10,000 m 8,000 E =6,000 0 4,000 2,000 2000 Friday EB Conditio ns — 11nn[l r a < < < < a a 0 O O 0 0 0 0 O N N V (D W O N Time I I r1 r J s o_ a a a a 0 CD 0 CD 0 N 7 CO of O 80 70 60 50 -o 40 a 30 N 20 10 MEN Expre ss V olume D General Volume A Express Speed General Speed 12,000 10,000 08,000 E 36,000 0 4.000 2,000 2000 Wkday WB Conditi ons AA A ♦ A- A —A -lr-A---i-- -*--A ---.:. <<<<< Q a a a a a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N V O W O N N V (O m Tim e ,® Express Volume O General Volume - ---An--Express Speed General Speed 1 80 70 60 50 40ai a 3c 20 10 2000 Friday WB Conditions 12,000 10,000 m 8,000 6,000 - 0 > 4,000 2,000 0 80 70 60 50 V 4 Q 3& 20 10 0 Express Volume O General Volume -A- Express Speed General Speed Figure 5-2 2000 Weekend Volumes and Speeds 12,000 10,000 a, 8,000 E C 6,000 4,000 2,000 2000 Saturday EB Conditi ons 4: 4 .0. 3 A A A 4 A -A —A A A A• 80 70 60 - 50 B a a a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N V c0 66 a N Time 2 2 2 2 2 a a a a a CD CD 0 0 CD 0 CD 0 N V CO of O 40 0 0. 30 v7 20 10 0 r• Express Volume = General Volume — --- Express Speed General Speed 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2000 Sunday EB Conditions boo < < < < a a co 0 0 0 co O Q O O o 0 O N (V 4 CO [O 6 N Time a a a a a 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 N V c0 66 O 80 70 60 50 a 40 30 20 10 0 0. CO IMMI Express Volume 0 General Volume --A -- Express Speed General Spee d i 12,000 10,000 8.000 E .000 0 4,000 2,000 _2000 Saturday WB Conditions < < < < 0 CD 0 0 0 N N V O 66 L n ■ a a a 0 0 0 N a O Express Volume =General Volu me -- -- Express Speed a a_ a 0 0 General Speed 80 70 60 50 -0 42 3) 20 10 0 12,000 2000 Sunday WB Conditions 10,000 8,000 06.000 >4,000 2,000 Q < < < CD 0 0 CD 0 N N V A-- • 9 --- al ,® �IHIr �L�1 QQaaa 0 0 CD CD 0 0 0 O O O pp 6 N N V TirYie 66 III Express Volume O General Volume ----- Express Speed 72 70 68 66 640 I- 620 0. 60/) 58 56 54 52 General Speed DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates 2011 Traffic and Potential Revenue By 2011, a few of the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor improvements (listed in Table 4-3) are scheduled to have been completed. Figure 5-3 is a line diagram schematically depicting these scheduled improvements in the area. The most significant improvements scheduled in the Riverside Freeway / SR-9lcorridor by 2011 are the additions of auxiliary lanes in the vicinity of the Orange/Riverside County line. The global volumes in the Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor begin to reach the level of significant congestion during the day (especially during peak periods) between the years 2005 and 2010. By 2011, even with the scheduled improvements, there are considerable periods of congestion during peak hours. Improvements scheduled to come online by 2013 will alleviate much of this congestion with the addition of a general purpose lane in each direction throughout most of the corridor. Table 5-3 summarizes the weekday hourly eastbound and westbound traffic in 2011 with the scheduled Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor improvements. This estimate assumes that HOV-3+ traffic in the 91 Express Lanes travels for free at all times (it is estimated that in FY 2011, OCTA will achieve the 1.2 coverage for all debt and HOV-3+ vehicles will be permitted to travel for free during all periods, per the Toll Policy). Toll rates are increased using the OCTA's Toll Policy which allows for peak hour toll increases when volumes consistently reach or exceed 3,200 vehicles per hour per directions in order to maintain a predictable level of service. The background inflation rate used is 3%. In 2011, the eastbound Friday peak toll is $13.00, while the overnight toll rate is $1.25. The average daily toll rate (calculated using potential revenue divided by total 91 Express Lanes vehicles) is $3.22 per trip. Table 5-4 summarizes the estimated 2011 forecast year traffic and potential revenue by direction and day of the week for the 91 Express Lanes. 5-2 Figure 5-3 CALIFORNIA'S SR -91 (RIVERSIDE FREEWAY), ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES, 2011 LAYOUT North i A Coal Canyon Rd 4- 010 91WECQAL CANYON I_NTERCFSANGE TO COUNTY LINE" EXTEND WE SR91 SUX LANE. paSTOFSRg1./5R ASS WTERCHaNGE..' 2 EXPRESS LANES (EXP) & 5 GENERAL LANES (GEN) WESTBOUND (WE), 2 EXP & 6 GEN EASTBOUND (ES). San Bernardln, RNmalds C rGRANDE r RIVERSIDE UNTYBOREER- 4 GEN& 2 EXP ED & WE BECOMES 2 HOV & 5 I GEN EB & 5 GEN & 1 HOV z;r .V S 011 WE SR 91 FROM 71 TO ¢OUNTY LINE' RESTRIPE AND RESIGN USING EXISING PAVEMENT AND EXTEND WE TO OPTIMIZE THROUGHPUT 11-10V/5 GEN 12 01 EB -741 TO it 1 EB AUX LANE ADDED (555VIEW" Q IMPERIAL: 2 EXP & 5 GCN WO, 2 EXP & 5 GENES. LYB 91/ I AKEVIFW BARRIER TO SEPARATE MI6 LAKEVIEW ONRAMP FOR SB LAKEVIE W TRAFFIC 016A ,GREEN RIVER CROSSING RECONSTR UCT BRIDGE & WIDEN & LENGTHEN OVER 5R91 � L. 2 U 1 MPFRIAL RWY TO WEIR CANYON' 2EXP &4 GENWB,2EXP& 4GEN` EB. t SR -24I ITOLLI TO COAL OANYON PQAD 2 EXP, 4 GEN & 1 AUXEB & WE, 1 AUX& SPLIT FROM 1 GEN BECOME 2 LANES TO SR - 241 t W.� Fairmont Blvd Weir Canyon Rd CORONA. EOTTLENEOIt 4 GEN & 1 HOV EXP EB & WB * WEIR CANYON RD TO SR -241 /TOLI I' 2 EXP, 4 GEN & IAUXEB& WE. AUX & SRO FROM 1 GEN BECC'al.� 2 LANES TO Sri, 241, 7 t4-A-7-NiA4-1 4- )0 1 t • 1 t aSR 71 ICH1N0 VALLEY PNEEW4YI TO Fl 5' THIS AREA EXPERIENCES HEAVY INCOMING WE TRAFFIC DURING THE AM RUSH AND HEAVY WESTBOUND EXIT ACTIVITY DURING THE PM RUSH, 4 GEN& 1HOV EB,5GEN a i HOV WE. t 1 SrIh r 2 c u w Coal Canyon Rd Table 5-3 2011 Weekday Eastbound and Westbound Traffic and Revenue EASTBOUND Global Volume General Volume Express Lane Volumes Toll Rate Toll Revenue Number of Days Annual Revenue HOV3+ HOV-2 SOV Total Weekday 12:00 AM 1:00 AM 943 938 1 2 2 5 2 $ 1.25 $ 1.25 $ 5 $ 3 203 1,015 Weekday 1:00 AM 2:00 AM 725 723 - 1 1 203 $ 508_ Weekday 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 725 723 - 1 1 2 $ 1.25 $ 3 $ 10 $ 78 203 $ 508 Weekday 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 1.233 1,223 2 4 4 10 70 $ 1.25 $ 1.25 203 $ 2,030 Weekday 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 3,264 3,194 8 _ 31 31 203 $ 15,733 Weekday 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 6,237 5.867 42 164 164 370 $ 1.25 $ 410 203 $ 83.230 Weekday 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 6.672 6,337 27 154 154 335 $ 2.10 $ 647 203 $ 131,300 Weekday 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 6,382 6,060 26 148 148 322 $ 2.10 5 622 203 $ 126,185 Weekday 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 6,165 5,854 25 143 143 311 249 $ $ 2.10 $ 2.10 $ 601 $ 475 203 $ 121.922 Weekday 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 5.875 5,626 23 113 113 203 $ 96,344 Weekday 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 5,947 5,696 23 114 114 251 $ 2.10 $ 479 203 $ 97,196 Weekday 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 6,382 6,059 33 145 145 323 $ 2.10 $ 609 203 $ 123,627 Weekday 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 7,470 6,505 109 428 428 746 965 1,683 $ 2.10 $ 2.85 $ 1,798 $ 4,252 203 $ 364.913 Weekday 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 8,341 6,658 191 746 203 $ 863,197 Weekday 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 9,428 6.833 337 1,129 1,129 2.595 $ 4.05 $ 9,145 203 $ 1,856,415 Weekday 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 10.,299 7,451 452 1,198 1,198 1,230 2,848 3,008 $ 5.50 $ 10.95 $ 13,178 $ 26,937 203 $ 2,675.134 Weekday 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 11,967 8,959 548 1,230 203 $ 5,468,211 Weekday 5:00 PM 6:00 PM 12,112 9.219 537 1,178 1,178 2,893 3.148 $ 12.00 $ 28,272 L 203 $ 5,739,216 Weekday 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 10,444 7.296 496 1,326 1,326 $ 4.55 $ 3.40 $ 12,067 $ 7.154 203 $ 2,449,520 Weekday 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 9,211 6,663 444 1,052 1,052 2,548 203 $ 1,452,181 Weekday 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 6,237 5,918 75 122 122 319 $ 2.30 $ 561 203 203 $ 113,924 Weekday 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 4,352 4.211 41 50 50 141 $ 2.10 $ 210 $ 42,630 Weekday 10:00 PM 11:00 PM 2,901 2,850 15 18 _ 18 51 $ 1.25 $ 45 203 $ 9,135 Weekday 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,741 1,727 4 5 5 14 $ 1.25 $ 13 203 $ 2.538 Total 145,053 122,590 3,459 9,502 9.502 22,463 $ 107,570 $ 21.836,609 WESTBOUND Global Volume General Volume Express Lane Volumes Toll Rate Toll Revenue Number of Days Annual Revenue HOV3+ HOV-2 SOV Total Weekday 12:00 AM 1:00 AM 1,111 1,101 2 4 4 10 $ 1.25 $ 10 2031 2,030.00 Weekday 1:00 AM 2:00 AM 889 881 2 3 3 8 $ 1.25 $ 8 203 $ 1.523 Weekday 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 963 955 2 3 3 8 $ 1.25 $ 8 203 $ 1,523 Weekday 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 1,778 1,757 5 8 8 21 692 $ 1.25 $ 20 203 203 $ 4,060 Weekday 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 7,113 6,421 170 261 261 $ 2.35 $ 1,227 $ 249.020 Weekday 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 9,261 7,841 348 536 536 1,420 $ 3.95 $ 4,234 203 $ 859,583 Weekday 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 11,632 9,063 573 998 998 2,569 $ 4.05 $ 8,084 203 203 $ 1,641,011 S 1,888,128 $ 1,438,763 Weekday 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 12,077 9,414 1 595 1,034 1,034 2.663 $ 4.45 $ 9,203 Weekday 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 11,410 9,399 261 875 875 2,011 $ 4.05 $ 7,088 203 Weekday 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 9,484 7,977 171 668 668 1,507 1,235 $ 3.25 $ 2.10 $ 4,342 $ 2,213 203 203 203 $ 881,426 $ 449,320 $ 298,410 Weekday 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 8,150 6,915 , 181 131 527 350 527 Weekday 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 7,409 6,578 350 831 $ 2.10 $ 1,470 Weekday 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 7,187 6,496 109 291 291 691 $ 2.10 $ 1,222 203 203 203 $ 248,107 $ 310,346 Weekday 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 7,557 6,709 120 364 364 848 $ 2.10 $ 1,529 Weekday 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 7,854 6,972 134 374 374 882 $ 2.10 $ 1.571 $ 318,872 Weekday 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 7,409 6,576 141 346 346 833 $ 2.10 $ 1,453 203 203 203 203 $ Weekday 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 7.631 6,772 145 357 357 859 878 $ 2.10 $ 1,499 _295,000 $ 304,378 $ 306,936 Weekday 5:00 PM 6:00 PM 7,780 6,902 158 360 360 $ 2.10 $ 1,512 Weekday 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 6,372 5,865 113 197 197 507 $ 2,10 $ 827 $ 167.962 Weekday 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 4.297 4,074 45 89 89 223 $ 1.25 $ 223 203 $ 45,168 Weekday 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 3,556 3,438 28 45 45 118 $ 1.25 $ 113 203 203 $ 22,838 Weekday 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 3,186 3.081 _ 25 40 40 105 $ 1.25 $ 100 $ 20,300 Weekday 10:00 PM 11:00 PM 2,445 2,385 14 23 23 60 $ 1.25 $ 58 203 $ 11,673 Weekday 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,630 1,612 4 7 7 18 $ 1.25 $ 18 203 $ 3.553 Total 148.181 129.184 3,477 7,760 7,760 18,997 $ 48,029 $ 9,749.928 Notes: HOV3+ Travel for free Toll rates are based on 2003 toll policy rates (8/03) grown by 3% for inflation and increased during peak hours DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates Table 5-4 2011 Forecast Year Estimated Traffic and Potential Revenue with improvements Hourly Simulation Model Projected 2011- Toll Policy General Purpose Lane Avg. Daily Traffic ' Global Average Daily Traffic Daily 91 Express Lanes Traffic Potential Daily Revenue Annual 91 Express Annual Lanes Traffic Potential Revenue Weekday EB WB 22,500 $108,000 4,600,000 $21,800,000 122,600 145,100 19,000 $48,000 3,900,000 $9,700,000 129,200 148,200 Friday EB WB 25,500 $133,000 1,200,000 $6,500,000 133,100 158,600 19,500 $46,000 1,000,000 $2,200,000 132,800 152,300 Saturday EB WB 22,200 $42,000 1,200,000 $2,200,000 127,000 149,200 19,500 $32,000 1,000,000 $1,700,000, 129,700 149,200 Sunday EB WB 13,100 $21,000 800,000 $1,300,000 114,200 127,300 14,800 $26,000 900,000 $1,600,000 112,500 127,30.0 Totals 14,600,000 $47,000,000 Weekly 280,600 $924,000 1,756,500 2,037,100 Daily Average 40,100 $132,000 _ 250,900 291,000 ote: Daily Averages calculated by dividing Weekly volumes by 7 days. Figures 5-4 and 5-5 show the resulting traffic volumes and average hourly speeds for the 91 Express Lanes compared to the resulting traffic volumes and average hourly speeds for the general purpose lanes in 2011. During the weekdays, the general purpose lanes are congested between 4 and 5 hours during the peak periods. On Fridays, congestion extends to about 6 hours, especially in the eastbound direction. On the weekends, the eastbound direction experiences irregular congestion during the higher midday volumes. The westbound direction experiences more congestion throughout the day than it has previously. 2025 Traffic and Potential Revenue Forecasts By 2025, several additional roadway improvements (listed in Table 4-3) are scheduled to have been completed. Figure 5-6 is a line diagram schematically depicting these scheduled improvements in the area. In 2013, two additional general purpose lanes in each direction will be added to the Corona bottleneck area, between the Corona Expressway / SR -71 and the Corona Freeway / I-15. One additional general purpose lane will be added to the 91 between Lakeview near the Costa Mesa Freeway / SR -55 in Orange County and the Corona Expressway / SR -71 in Riverside County in both directions. Additional interchange and widening scheduled improvements are listed in Table 4-3. Table 5-5 summarizes the weekday hourly eastbound and westbound traffic in 2025 with the scheduled Riverside Freeway / SR -91 corridor improvements. This 2025 estimate follows the OCTA Toll Policy and assumes that HOV-3+ traffic in the 91 Express Lanes travels for free. In 2025, the toll rates range between $1.90 overnight to $13.55 during 5-3 Figure 5-4 2011 Weekday V olumes and Speeds - Toll Policy 12,000 10,000 a> 8,000 E 6,000 0 4,000 2,000 2011 Wkday EB w/ Improvements n 1 L ■ • s • I ■ [1 a 0 O O 0 0 0 0 O C (D m O es i Time a • a a a a 0 0 0 0 0 N V (D 6 O 111 Express Volume O General Vo lume —--- Express Speed 12,000 10,000 8,000 m • 6,000 O 4,000 2,000 11 nn 2011 Friday EB w/ Improvements 80 70 60 50 C) 40 cu 0. 30 20 10 0 General Speed !- A -! -! A &A 16 - J a a a a Q Q 0- o O 0 0 0 OP { N 7 O W O N Time E c p o_ • a a a a CD O CD CD 0 O CD 0 00 N V D 00 O 12,000 10,000 8,000 m E 6,000 O 4,000 2,000 2011 Wkday WB w/ Impr ovements Q¢¢ a a a a 0o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N V (D 6 N N 4 O m O T-i rrre__ ri Express Volume =General Volume - -,--- Express Speed General Speed a a CD CD CD O El 80 70 60 50 a 40% 0. 360 20 10 0 80 12,000 - 70 60 50 -0 d 40 a U) 30 20 10 0 MN Express Volume O General Volume --_y-- Express Speed General Speed 10,000 8,000 a) 6,000 O 4,000 2,000 2 011 Friday WB wl Improvements A d. A -d r- �I I 1 1 1 1 a a a Q a ¢ a 0- o 0 0 o o O O O O O O N 4 c0 N O N N Tiriie Express Volume D General Volume ---*— Express Speed General Speed r ■ 80 70 60 50 V 40 cu 30 CO 20 10 a • a a a CD 0 0 CD O O CD CD ✓ chi & o Figure 5-5 2011 Weekend V olumes and Speeds - T oll Policy 12,000 10,000 8,000 d E 6,000 0 4,000 2,000 2011 Saturday EB w/ Improveme nts .-! A A ♦ A A- A A. 9 L s-i < < a < a O O O O O rN N V CD Co O N N Tim e Express Volume = General Volume--A----Express Speed 12,000 10,000 8,000 m E 6,000 O 4,000 2,000 Qa a a a a a 00 O O O O O V (0 me:, 80 70 60 50 a 40 cu Cl) 30 20 10 0 General Speed 2011 Sunday ES w Inn rovements i ■ Q a Q q Q Q a a a a a a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (V4 O c0 O N (.6 V (0 66 4 Time E xpress Volume = General Volume --at--- Express Speed IT 80 70 60 50 a 40 a 30u) 20 10 0 General Speed 12,000 2011 Saturday WB w/ Impr ovem ents _ , 83 10,000 m 8,000 6,000 O 4,000 2,000 11 11 II a < a 0 0 0 N 7 0 O I 1 111i Iii« P. 1 i < a a a a a a o C o 0 00, o 0 0 c0 C (N N V (0 66 O Time_ __ _ 11 Express Volume O Gereral Volume — Express Speed 12,000 10,000 - 8,000 N 6,000 O > 4,000 2,000 6] 5] 40 co 30' 20 10 0 General Speed 2011 Sunday WB w/ Impro vements # 4k A .a A - —A a ¢ a a a C CD O O CD O 00 O O O O O (V N 4 (0 Co O ('V Time _ i Express Volume O General Volume --- Express Speed a a a a a 0 0 0 •) o o Q o 9 o N c0 W O 80 70 60 50 40 1) a 30u) 20 10 0 General Speed Figure 5-6 CALIFORNIA'S SR -91 (RIVERSIDE FREEWAY), ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES, 2025 LAYOUT 4— E EAST OF r,f.R.,52 ,ENT FfRCHANGE ' 2 EXPRESS LANES TS P? 4 5 GENERAL LANES 1DEN! WESTBOLPN ma). 2 EXPai5 GEN £43TTBDUND 2111 I' /if IT j5 rMLT 5R 71 TO CUUNtY 1 IN, RESTRIPE 6 RESIGN USING EXISTING PAVEMENT & EXTEND WD 5591 TO OPTIMIZE THROUGHPUT NOV/5 GEN h BWn9IWM1X 0_. 0 4- 03 i'VESTBOI.THD, AI rLAP+EVIEW BARRIER SEPARATING WB ONRAMP FOP SB TRAFFIC CONSTRCTEO 55.)5 FROM SR.A 3RD LANE ADDED NEB SB j ANFV(F rL GEN WB. .2 EXP A5 GEN EB, 4165 J7 Li5.f8CIFd:7 A 14 3T&"Y1NT7 WIDEN BY 7 EB GP LANE IN OD PAM] LANNEVIEW TO IMPERIAL HIGHWAY A UN AND WS IN OC FROM IMPERIAL HIGHWAY TO24? I, IB WITIN( STY Ti*W77'? IAT. J.' BD ;2E XP A 5 LYEN'WB. .^EXP35 GEN LEI. I 91!71 INTERCHANGE IMPROVEMENTS 1 t 1 t 46 FT FA/TBOEMM A jtECITICIEWO INTCIIMEDIATE ACCE''SS T)F THE 97 EXPRESS LANES AT GRADE. t F-___ jR-247' DTGLI I T;,!,EXNLCAN4Q14 MIZ 2a GEN ES A WB,.EAUxJOAN FR 9T FROM SF 14i .AND NARROW TO I 4- 4- 4— —19 / ATSR-247 SGENa2EXPEB� Ia WB. 'VI 1Ii CANYO1 5D TOSR941 2 P.SOEN1 r A'JX ERA WS 1 A:IX A SPLIT N V FYI AI 1 GEN y t BECOME .LANES: T054.211 122 SR.9I %55.71 I TE IFI IANOC UIRECT HOV CONNECTORS t (P4ANGEI. t T1 COAT' J GEN 4 2 EXP ED WB BECOMES WV' a5GENEBa5 GEN a 1 NOV MSS, 112 51 EB .241 (WEST OF CARL gANYON no TO 71. ADD I AUX LANE 915A GREEN RNEE LL OOVVEPOFIOS SING =ME RECONSTR UCTBY WIDENING AND LENGTHEN! NG OVER 011.71 !CHI10 VALLEY EIEEWAVITOW 5 1H15APTEA EXPETIIEMCESNCAVY INCOMING WB TRAFFIC DURING THE AM RI/SH AND HEAVY WESTBOUND EXIT ACTRINYDURINi THE PM RUSH, 5 GEN a' NOV EB, a GEN. 1 NOV WB. y C a 05119425 TiRAAY.IF AND RI VFRS,'7F s:T?1.7HFS I IHF TY1' P.1 . GENERALLANES ADDEDSIIENER L ri IAOVEBS XI 91 ED WD 511X:47 A PT WIDEN ERA WB SRN Wr GP LANE IN 6404 DIRECTION Table 5-5 2025 Weekday Eastbound and Westbound Traffic and Revenue EASTBOUND Global Volume General Volume xpress Lane Volumes HOV3+ HOV-2 Weekday 12:00 AM 1:00 AM Weekday 1:00 AM 2:00 AM Weekday 2:00 AM 3:00 AM Weekday 3:00 AM 4:00 AM Weekday 4:00 AM 5:00 AM Weekday 5:00 AM 6:00 AM Weekday 6:00 AM 7:00 AM Weekday 7:00 AM 8:00 AM Weekday 8.00 AM 9:00 AM Weekday 9:00 AM 10:00 AM Weekday 10:00 AM 11:00 AM Weekday 11:00 AM 12:00 PM Weekday 12:00 PM 1:00 PM Weekday 1:00 PM 2:00 PM Weekd y 2:00 PM 3:00 PM Weekday 3:00 PM 4:00 PM Weekday 4:00 PM 5:00 PM Weekday 5:00 PM 6:00 PM Weekday 6:00 PM 7:00 PM Weekday 7:00 PM 8:00 PM Weekday 8:00 PM 9:00 PM Weekday 9:00 PM 10:00 PM Weekday 10:00 PM 11:00 PM Weekday 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,115 857 857 1,458 3,858 7,373 7,888 7.545 7,288 6,945 7,030 7,545 8,831 9.860 1,112 854 854 1,448 3,786 6,990 7,419 7,213 6,966 6,690 6,720 7,211 7,832 7,749 8,461 9,461 11,146 12,487 13,950 13.950 12,594 10,888 7.373 5,144 3,429 2,058 Total 171,469 10.503 10,550 9.535 8,251 7.041 4,998 3,376 2.042 147,062 WESTBOUND Weekday 12:00 AM 1:00 AM Weekday 1:00 AM 2:00 AM Weekday 2:00 AM 3:00 AM Weekday 3:00 AM 4:00 AM Weekday 4:00 AM 5:00 AM Weekday 5:00 AM 6:00 AM Weekday 6:00 AM 7:00 AM Weekday 7:00 AM 8:00 AM Weekday 8:00 AM 9:00 AM Weekday 9:00 AM 10:00 AM Weekday 10:00 AM 11:00 AM Weekday 11:00 AM 12:00 PM Weekday 12:00 PM 1:00 PM Weekday 1:00 PM 2:00 PM Weekday 2:00 PM 3:00 PM Weekday 3:00 PM 4:00 PM Weekday 4:00 PM 5:00 PM Weekday 5:00 PM 6:00 PM Weekday 6:00 PM 7:00 PM Weekday 7:00 PM 8:00 PM Weekday 8:00 PM 9:00 PM ' Weekday 9:00 PM 10:00 PM Weekday 10:00 PM 11:00 PM Weekday 11:00 PM 12:00 AM Total 1 1 SOV 8 43 37 26 26 23 28 34 113 239 349 500 559 550 523 459 78 42 15. 4 3,661 4 32 170 216 153 148 116 141 150 443 936 4 32 Total 170 216 153 148 116 141 150 443 936 3 3 3 10 72 Toll Rate 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 Toll Revenue 4 4 $ 15 122 646 Number of Days 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 $ 584.539 203 $ 1,672,070 203 $ 2,987,510 203 $ 5,127,780 203 $ 7.035.168_ 203 $ 7,231.875 203 203 203 203 203 $ 203 Annual Revenue $ 771 $ 771 $ 771 $ 3.086 $ 383 469 332 322 255 310 334 999 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 1,404 1,168 1.263 1,444 1,425 1,269 1,089 127 52 19 6 10,374 1,168 , 1,263 1,444 1,425 1,269 1,089 127 52 19 6 10,374 Global General Express Lane Volumes Volume Volume HOV3+ HOV-2 SOV Total 2,111 2,685 3,026 3,447 3,400 3,061 2,637 332 146 53 16 3.25 3.25 3.25 4.40 6.30 10.00 12.00 12.50 10.10 $ 5.25 $ 3.55 $ 3.25 $ 1.90 $ 995 $ 962 $ 754 $ 917 975 2,880 8,237 $ 14,717 $ 25,260 $ 34.656 35.625 $ 25,634 11,435 24,409 1.90 902 338 72 23 24,685 131.138 285,012 201,884 $ 195,286 $ 153.062 $ 186.050 $ 197,925 $ 5,203,661 $ 2,321,204 $ 183,045 $ 68,614 14,657 $ 4.628 $ 33,815,192 $ 166.577 1.314 1,051 1,139 2,102 8.408 10,948 13,901 13,950 13,665 11,211 9,634 8,759 8,496 8,934 9,284 8.759 9,021 9,197 7.532 5.080 4,204 3,766 2.890 1.927 175,172 1.309 1,048 1,136 2,078 7,441 8,275 10,500 10,514 10,399. 8,276 7.846 7,764 7,530 7,921 7,560 7„761 7,994 7,483 7.195_. 4,942 4,107 3.693 2,846 1,914 1 1 1 6 237 655 1,009 1.009 825 828 466 333 262 157 152 143 262 168 173 308 2 1 1 9 1 1 9 365 365 1,288 1,304 1,400 1,301 763 419 407 435 731 415 427 703 131 1,288 1,304 1,400 1,301 763 419 407 435 731 415 427 703 131 5 3 3 Toll Rate $ 1.90 $ 1.90 $ 1.90 S 1.90 $ 3.65 $ 6.15 $ 9.30 $ 9.90 $ 9.30 $ 5.10 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 3.25 $ 1.90 $ 1.90 $ 1.90 $ 1.90 $ 1.90 24 967 2,673 3.401 3,436 3.266 2,935 1,788 995 966 1.013 1,724 998 1,027 1.714 147,532 75 28 23 17 10 3 5,134 55 37 28 17 55 37 28 17 337 138 97 73 44 13 5 5 11,253 11,253 27,640 Notes: HOV3+ Travel for free Toll rates are based on 2003 toll policy rates 8/03) grown by 3% for inflation and increased during peak hours Toll Revenue $ 8 $ 4 $ 4 $ 34 $ 2.665 $ 12,411 $ 23,957 $ 25,819 $ 26,040 $ 13,270 $ 4,960 $ 2,724 $ 2,646 $ 2,828 $ 4,752 $ 2,698 $ 2,776 $ 4,570 $ 852 $ 209 $ 141 $ Number of Days 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 203 106 65 19 $ 133,552 Annual Revenue $ 1.543 $ 771 $ 771 $ _ 6,943 $ 540,894 $ 2,519,372 $ 4,863.230 $ 5,241,298 $ 5,286,120 $ 2,693,851 $ 1,006,779 $ 552.871 $ 537.037 $ 573,983 $ 964.555 _$_ 547,593 $ 563,427 $ _ 927,609 $ 172,855 $ 42,427 $ 28,542 $ 21.599 $ 13,114 3.857 $ 27,111.036 DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates the Friday eastbound peak period. The overall average toll rate in 2025 is $4.98. In 2013, when the major near -term improvements come online, it is assumed that the peak hour toll rates will be reduced to what they would have been with inflation only. The Friday eastbound peak hour toll is reduced from over $13 to $7.40 in 2013. Between 2013 and 2025, the need for peak hour toll increases is determined by the toll policy. Table 5-6 summarizes the estimated 2025 forecast year traffic and potential revenue by direction and day of the week for the 91 Express Lanes. Table 5-6 2025 Forecast Year Estimated Traffic and Potential Revenue with Hourly Simulation Model Projected 2025 - Toll Policy Daily 91 Express Lanes Traffic Potential Daily Revenue Annual 91 Express Lanes Traffic Potential Annual Revenue General Purpose Lane Avg. Daily Traffic Global Average Daily Traffic Weekday EB WB 24,400 $167,000 5,000,000 $33,800,000 147,100 171,500 27,600 $134,000 5,600,000 $27,100,000 147,500 175,100 Friday EB WB 27,400 $213,000 1,400,000 $10,400,000 158,200 187,600 30,000 $133,000 1,500,000 $6,500,000 150,100 180,100 Saturday EB WB 29,300 $99,000 1,500,000 $5,100,000 147,100 176,400 24,900 $66,000 1,300,000 $3,400,000 151,500 176,400 Sunday EB WB 19,000 $50,000 1,200,000 $3,000,000 131,500 150,500 17,000 $47,000 1,000,000 $2,900,000 133,500 150,500 Totals 18,500,000 $92,200,000 Weekly 357,600 $1,812,000 2,050,300 2,407,900 Daily Average 51,100 $258,900 292,900 344,000 Note: Daily Averages calculated by dividing Weekly volumes by 7 days. Figures 5-7 and 5-8 show the resulting traffic volumes and average hourly speeds for the 91 Express Lanes compared to the resulting traffic volumes and average hourly volumes for the general purpose lanes in 2025. Projected Annual Traffic and Revenue Using the 2000 base year, 2011 and 2025 forecast years, the Consultant Team forecasted the interim year (from 2004 through 2010, 2012 through 2024 and beyond 2025) traffic and potential revenue streams using a modified straight-line interpolation, based on the OCTA's Toll Policy. The resulting forecast is presented in Table 5-7 and Figure 5-9. To forecast the interim year traffic volumes, a global projection was made based on the VOCTAM output and historic volumes, discussed in Chapter 4. These volumes were input into the Hourly Simulation Model to determine the split of 91 Express Lane volumes to general purpose lane volumes and the resulting revenue projection. When additional capacity was added to the general purpose lanes, there was a bump in global 5-4 Figure 5-7 2025 Weekday V olumes and Speed T oll P olicy 12,000 10,000 m 8,000 E 3 6,000 0 > 4,000 2,000 2025 Wkday EB w/ Impr ovements a a a Q a O o O O O o O o O o O o o O 6 CV 4 Cd 66 O N —Time r o_ a a a a 0 0 0 0 0 N V (D C(5 O 80 70 60 50 -o 40 cu cn 30 20 12,000 10,000 8,000 m x.000 O 4,000 10 I 2,000 0 111 Express Volume = General Volume —A -- Express Speed General Speed 12,000 2025 Friday EB w/ Impro vements 10,000 - -± 8,000 o 6,000 - 0 > 4,000 2,000 Il l4 II.OfrEe ILf Q • < < < < < a CL C o O 0 0 0 C O 0 O co N N V O a0 a N N Time V� o_ a a a 0 0 a 0 • (D ao O Express Volume 0 General Volume --ar Express Speed 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 a a) a) a U) General Speed ll II fl 2025 Wkday WB wl Improvements r ill 1�1 8 I I 1 1 0 r 80 70 60 50 40d a 3 20 13 0 a a < < ¢ ¢ a 0- a a a E O a a 0 O O O O O O O O N N V' CO W O N N4 (O CO O Tim e 11 Express Volume = General Volume --,t,— Express Speed General Speed 12,000 10,000 8,000 m 6,000 0 4,000 2,000 2025 Friday WB wl Improvement s 2 ¢ Q ¢ 0 0- o O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N V (D ed O N N Tiffin mew Express Volume O General Volume --#--Express Speed -A A, o_ o a O O O O O O a O O N General Speed 80 70 60 50 a 40 a) a 30� 20 10 0 Figure 5-8 2025 Weekend Volumes and Speeds - T oll Policy 12,000 10,000 - 8,000 - d 76,000 0 4,000 2,000 2025 Saturday EB wl Impro vements XXXI I 1,1,1,11_ < �d Ca a a 0a a 0- o • 0 0 0 0 0 a O 0 a N V (O oe o CV N 7 CO (0 O Time MN Express Volume I! General Volume --- Express Speed -F General Speed I 12,000 10,000 - 8,000 m m6,000 O 4,000 2,000 2025 Sunday ES wl improvements 80 70 60 50 a 40w 3e14 - 20 - 10 0 i 1111 I,iIl O 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N 4 (d Co o N N o CO o Time .1x1119111.., a a a a a a 80 70 60 50 40m a 3d" 20 10 0 Express Volume General Volume -A-- Express Speed ---x-- General Speed 2025 Sat urday WB wl Improvements 12,000 10,000 - 8,000 - a) 1,000 4,000 - 2,000 - : I X L A A 80 - 70 - 60 - 50 -o --40a) 30P 20 - 10 0 '¢ 2 2 < a2 2 a a. a a m e_ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 o 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N a (O G0 b (Si N 4 (O a0 0 Time Express Volume General Volume -A- Expr ess Speed -- General Speed 12,000 10,000 a)8,000 M6• ,000 O >4,000 2,000 2025 Sunday WB w/ Improvements < < < Q Ca a a a MO_ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N. C (O O (V N a CO 66 0 ▪ T- ime 80 70 - 60 - 50 a) - 40w a - 30(/' - 20 10 0 Express Volume MN General Volume -A- Express Spe ed -*- General Speed updated 9/25/03 Table 5-7 Hourly Simulation Model Interim Year Toll Policy Forecasts Forecast Improvements Fiscal Year (ending June 30th) Forecast Improvements / Toll Policy Global Volume General Purpose Lane Volumes 91 Express Lane Volumes' Growth Rate Potential Free- Flow Revenue Growth Rate 1988 175,000 175,000 - 1989 183,000 183,000 $, - 1990 197,000 197,000 - $ - 1991 206,000 206,000 - $ - 1992 206,000 206,000 - I $ 1993 205,000 205,000, - $ _ 1994 206,000 206,000 - $ - 1995 207,000 207,000 - $ - _ 1996 210,000 203,900 6,100 $ 2,800,000 _ 1997 221,000 200,200 20,800 241% $ 10,300,000 268% 1998 227,000 202,160 24,840 19% $ 14,780,000 43% 1999 224,000 200,775 23,225 -7% $ 17,580,000 19% 2000 232,000 211,700 20,300 -13% $ 17,225,000 -2% 2001 240,000 217,855 22,145 9% $ 19,930,000 16% 2002 250,000 226,150 23,850 8% $ 23,320,000 17% 2003 263,000 234,600 28,400 19% $ 26,560,000 14% 2004* 270,000 239,700 30,300 7% $ 26,400,000 -1% 2005 273,000 240,900 _ 32,100 6% $ 29,100,000 10% 2006 275,700 242,000 33,700 5% $ 31,800,000 9% 2007 278,200 242,800 35,400 5% $ 34,700,000 9% 2008 283,900 247,400 36,500 3% $ 37,500,000 8% 2009 286,300 248,600 37,700 3% $ 40,500,000 8% 2010 288,700 249,800 38,900 3% $ 43,600,000 8% 2011** 291,000 251,100 39,900 3% $ 46,100,000 6% 2012 293,300 252,000 41,300 4% $ 49,200,000 7% 2013*** 307,400 275,800 31,600 -23% $ 36,200,000 -26% 2014 316,000 282,800 33,200 5% $ 39,700,000 10% 2015 318,500 283,600 34,900 5% 5 43,500,000 10% 2016 321,000 284,500 36,500 5% $ 47,500,000 9% 2017 323,400 285,300 38,100 4% $ 51,700,000 9% 2018 329,100 289,300 39,800 4% $ 56,200,000 9% 2019 331,400 290,000 41,400 4% $ 60,900,000 8% 2020 333,700 290,600 43,100 4% $ 65,900,000 8% 2021 335,900 291,100 44,800 4% $ 71,100,000 8% 2022 337,900 291,300 46,600 4% $ 76,700,000 8% 2023 339,900 291,700 48,200 3% $ 82,100,000 7% 2024 341,900 i 292,300 49,600 3% $ 87,400,000 1 6% 2025 344,000 293,000 51,000 3% $I 92,900,000 6% 2026 345,700 293,900 51,800 2% $ 97,400,000 5% 2027 347,400 295,000 52,400 1% $ 101,800,000 5% 2028 349,000 295,900 53,100 1% $ 106,400,000 5% 2029 350,400 296,600 53,800 1% $ 111,200,000 5% 2030 351,800 297,500 54,300n 1% $ 115,600,000 4% *HOV-3+ vehicles travels for free except eastbound weekdays 4-6 PM beginning FY 04 ** HOV-3+ vehicles travel for free at all times *** SR 91 Major Improvement programs come online $150,000,000 $140,000,000 $130,000,000 $120,000,000 $110,000,000 $100,000,000 $90,000,000 $80,000,000 $70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $- Figure 5-9 91 Express Lanes Daily Traffic & Annual Potential Revenue * C 00 O N 00 O N 1 C 00 O O O — ,—- .-� (-Ni N N N N M O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N N N N N =Revenue ' I Fspr s Lanes Volumes Year 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 91 E xpress Lanes Traffic DRAFT FINAL 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Revenue Study Vollmer Associates traffic volumes (just over 1 percent in 2008 and a total of 6 percent between 2013 and 2014 when the near term improvements are completed. Since additional capacity is provided in the general purpose lanes, the demand for the 91 Express Lanes diminishes, and the market share for the 91 Express Lanes is significantly reduced. The 91 Express Lane traffic drops by approximately 24 percent in 2013 when the improvements are completed, and the resulting revenue decreases by 27 percent. Table 5-7 and Figure 5-9 shows the 91 Express Lanes traffic and revenue stream forecast. Again, the estimated toll rates assume OCTA's Toll Policy and estimates were made for future peak hour toll rates. Conditions in the interim years will depend greatly on when the proposed improvements are completed. 5-5 APPENDIX 1 VOCTAM Validation Results Table 1 VOCTAM Validation Results Screenline Screenline Location 2000 Count 2000 Forecast %Difference vs. Count % Allowable* Difference 1 W/O BEACH BLVD. (PCH - WHITTIER) 1,224,291 1,331,012 9% 11% 2 LA COUNTY LINE (Beach - SR 57) 278,525 322,506 16% 11% 3 RIVERSIDE COUNTY LINE (SR 57) 251,323 235,990 -6% 11% 4 E OC LINE (Ortega Hwy) 7,372 7,040 -5% 59% 5 SD COUNTY LINE (I5) 142,886 136,940 -4% 21% 6 E/O I-5 (Pico - Crown Valley) 247,000 219,557 -11% 12% 7 N/O I-5 (Oso - Barranca) 435,500 462,144 6% 11% 8 N/0 1-5 (Sand Canyon - Broadway) 593,129 613,176 3% 11% 9 N/0 1-5 (SR -22 - Artesia) 1,091,534 1,140,645 4% 11% 10 S/O SR 91 (Moody - SR -57) 866,143 972,036 12% 11% 11 N/0 SR 91 (Kraemer - Gypsum Cyn) 244,500 265,850 9% 11% 12 SANTA ANA RIVER (PCH - 17th) 636,412 680,359 7% 11% 13 SA RIVER (Memory Lane - Lincoln) 800,027 834,133 4% 11% 14 E/O SR -57 (SR 91 - Lambert) 463,739 425,173 -8% 11% 15 S/O BOLSA AVE. (Bolsa Chica-Harbor) 642,555 581,677 -9% 11% 16 E/O BEACH (PCH - Hazard) 509,439 486,324 -5% 11% 17 E/0 BEACH (Cerritos - Westminster) 292,056 294,709 1% 11% 18 E/0 BEACH (Ball - Artesia) 528,359 585,461 11% 11% i 19 S/O BALL RD. (Beach - Loma) 1,002,463 984,986 -2% 11% 20 N/O 1-405 (Harbor - SR 133) 761,391 808,960 6% 11% 21 S/O RED HILL (PCH - Barranca) 668,085 701,591 5% 11% 22 S/O RED HILL (Edinger - La Colina) 336,768 393,764 17% 11% 23 N/0 LAGUNA BEACH (PCH - SR 133) 138,438 128,203 -7% 21"/0 24 S/O 1-5/1-405 WYE (IrvCtr Dr - Portola) 481,901 545,485 13% 11% 25 S/O JAMBOREE (Santiago Cyn Rd.) 6,000 5,044 -16% 61% 26 S/O ALISO CREEK (133 - Marguerite) 460,732 417,263 -9% 11% 27 S/O EL TORO RD. (PCH - Aliso Creek) 137,150 123,427 -10% 22% 28 S/O EL TORO RD. (Moutlon - Trabuco) 476,622 467,064 -2% 11% 29 S/O EL TORO (Snt Margarita -Live Oak) 89,777 95,881 7% 25% 27+28+29 S/O EL TORO RD. 703,550, 686,372 -2% 11'%% GRAND TOTALS 13,814,118 14,266,400 3% 10 Note: * Percent NCH12P-255 Allowable Deviation Table 2 Regression Analysis Results for the VOCTAM Base Case Network (2000) Facility Type Forced Origin Total Count Estimated Volume Number of Observations Slope R Squared Tollway 1.0458 0.8740 323,770 339,365 16 Freeway 0.9817 0.8420 6,352,395 6,278,959 68 6 Ln Divided 1.0631 0.5040 2,790,067 3,009,702 148 4 Ln Divided 1.0117 0.62931 2,993,829 3,057,867 268 4 Ln Undivided 1.0591 0.6050' 519,592 594,449 76 2 Ln Undivided 1.0314 0.7302 178,988 171,407 36. Tollway 40,000 35,000 30,000 a, 25,000 E 0 20,000 E U) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 • • • 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Count • Data Points —Fitted Linear Relationship i Freeway 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 E c 100,000 g 80,000 VI 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 • 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 Co unt • Data Points —Fitted Linear Relationship Si x Lane Di vided 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 E 30,000 m 25,000 E W 20,000 15.000 10,000 5,000 0 • • $ • •• • • • • • i • I • •• • • • • .• • • i •• • • • • • • • 0 a • • •• + • • • • • • S. • • • • U • • • s - ---- •- • • • • • 5 • • • • _ • • • • • • •; r • • • •- • • • • 0 • Data Points Fitted Linear Relationship 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Count F our Lane Divided 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 w E c 25,000 a, E 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Co unt 0 25,000 • 30,000 35,000 • Data Points Fitted Linear Relationship Four Lane Undivided 25,000 • 20,000 E 15,000 z as w 10,000 5,000 0 • 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Count • Data Points Fitted Linear Relationship Two Lan e Undivided 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 E 12,000 3 10,000 w 8,000 6,000 4,000 - 2,000 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Co unt • Data Points Fitted Linear Relationship APPENDIX 2 SUBCONSULTANT INFORMATION George Hoyt & Associates George Hoyt & Associates, Inc. is a professional transportation planning consulting firm. Founded in 1987, the firm assists both public and private sector clients in developing solutions to their transportation planning and analysis problems. Our primary focus has been in the design, development and maintenance of transportation planning and forecasting models. Another significant component of our business is the design and implementation of surveys in conjunction with our clients' transportation planning studies. Our data collection efforts have supported toll and revenue forecast projects, developmental impact analyses, corridor planning studies, draft and final EIS projects and master plan updates. Much of the travel data we have collected have been used to update and calibrate travel models for various states and metropolitan areas. Our client base includes state and local Depai tiiients of Transportation, Metropolitan Planning Organizations throughout the US, and public transportation authorities. Some of our recent clients include the Texas Turnpike Authority, the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, New York City Transit, and the Northern Virginia Transportation Council. GEORGE HOYT & ASSOCIATES, INC. PB Consult Incorporated in November, 2000 as a wholly owned subsidiary of Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc., a leading professional services firm serving the infrastructure sector worldwide, PB Consult provides comprehensive management consulting services to infrastructure owners, operators, developers and builders. PB Consult has 63 professional staff members and access to 9,000 professionals in the PB family of companies. PB Consult Principals in their present and former capacities represent a set of skills developed as owners, operators and consultants to toll highway projects. PB Consult's consultants are experienced in analyzing the specific development impacts and related value derived from highway construction; forecasting these values in direct support of project construction financing; evaluating "value capture" mechanisms to enhance financial structures and capital efficiencies; preparing comprehensive analysis of key factors impacting the long-term growth prospects of potential project corridor traffic including regional economic growth, land use and development potentials, and demographic trends as well as presenting the project to potential equity investors and lenders. The firm's work products and opinions on matters affecting project feasibility and financing (including revenue forecasts) are trusted and relied on by parties to structured financing transactions. They have, with Vollmer Associates, jointly prepared traffic and revenue studies to support over $3 billion in investment grade bond sales. The firm's recent experience includes financial, economic, and travel forecasting analysis to support project financing for the Transportation Corridor Agencies in Orange County, San Miguel Mountain Parkway (SR 125) in San Diego, and the Northwest Parkway in the Denver metropolitan area. 1 • • DRAFT 9/26/2003 Riverside County to Orange County Major Investment Study Project Update October 3, 2003 Current Work • CETAP - Environmental streamlining - Internal corridors • Project Study Reports - Auxiliary lanes - New lanes • MIS - Agreement - Scope for Request for Proposals 1 MIS Elements • Mobility problem & purpose and need • Alternatives • Goals & evaluation criteria • Public involvement • Costs and benefits • Financial analysis & planning • Conceptual engineering / environmental analysis • Evaluation & documentation • All these elements involve major policy decisions Locally Preferred Strateg Mobility Problem Purpose and Need Conceptual Atiematives (many) Screening Reduced Set of Alternatives (few) EEng peering/ nvironmental/ Financial Arrotyx* Locally Preferred Strategy Scope of Work Flow Study Objectives Screening Criteria Evaluation Criteria Riverside County Program of Projects Orange County Program of Projects Intercounty Program of Projects Legend Peary, eeecirtivs, rYCinKel, sad pnblle input or rer� 2 Schedule • Start to finish: 18 months • Conceptual alternatives are typically developed, evaluated, and screened by month 10 - Three to four alternatives typically emerge from the screening process • Conceptual engineering for the "screened" alternatives typically takes five months • Locally Preferred Strategy refinements and decision typically takes three months • All project elements require major policy decisions and public input Next steps • Finalize interagency agreement • Release RFP • Evaluate proposals and select project consultants 3 • • Item 6. OCTA October 3, 2003 To: State Route 91 Advisory Committee From: Kia Mortazavi, OCTA Manager, Planning & Programming Subject: California High -Speed Rail Update Overview Various planning and conceptual engineering efforts are underway to implement high-speed rail systems in southern California and Orange County. An update on these efforts impacting the Inland Empire and Orange County is provided for the Committee's review. Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. Background Three distinct but related planning and engineering efforts are underway to deploy high-speed rail in Southern California in the future. These include: 1. A statewide steel -wheel -on -steel -rail system between the Bay Area and San Diego proposed by the California High -Speed Rail Authority (CHRSA) which includes upgrades to conventional Amtrak service on the Los Angeles to San Diego Rail (LOSSAN) Corridor; 2. A regional Maglev system proposed by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG); 3. An interstate Maglev line (Las Vegas -Ontario -Anaheim) proposed by the California -Nevada Super Speed Train Commission (CNSSTC). Following are updates on these projects. Orange County Transportation Authority 550 South Main Street / P.O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584 / (714) 560-OCTA (6282) California High -Speed Rail Update Page 2 Discussion 1. CHRSA Statewide System CHSRA is the state agency responsible for planning, constructing, and operating a high-speed train system serving California's major urban areas. CHSRA is preparing a Program Environmental Impact Report/Statement (Program EIR/S) for a high-speed train system serving Sacramento, San Francisco, the San Joaquin Valley, Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, Orange County, and San Diego via Riverside County. Trains would travel up to 200 miles per hour, and travel time between San Francisco and Los Angeles would be about 2.5 hours. Within Orange County, the high-speed electrified rail system would operate as far south as the Irvine Transportation Center where passengers could transfer to Amtrak intercity trains traveling between San Diego and Los Angeles. The cost estimate for the entire system is approximately $25 billion. That amount does not include routing through Orange County. The Initial Operating Segment (IOS) between San Francisco and Los Angeles will cost $14 billion. A $9.95 billion bond issue will appear on the November 2004 statewide ballot (SB 1856, Costa, Fresno). Labeled the "Safe, Reliable High Speed Train Bond Act for the 21st Century," it would allocate $9 billion to the CHSRA and the remainder to heavy rail, commuter rail and light rail. According to Authority estimates, Metrolink will receive $122 million and Amtrak's Surfliner will receive $100 million if the bond passes. Recent discussions in Sacramento have suggested moving the bond election to 2006 because of the state's financial crisis. Legislation signed by the Governor would be required to change the date of the bond measure. The Authority will release the Draft EIR/EIS this October. This draft document compares high-speed train service, highway expansion, air service, or no action. The preferred mode is traditional high-speed steel wheels (similar to systems in Europe) and not Maglev. The Final EIR/EIS without the environmental clearance will be released in early 2004. The Implementation Plan will be released in June 2004 at the earliest. The full environmental study for the IOS will take 2-3 years. The earliest completion of a major segment of the IOS will take 8-10 years. California High -Speed Rail Update Page 3 2. SCAG Maglev Studies SCAG proposes a plan to deploy a 270 -mile Maglev system serving much of Southern California. The adopted 2000 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) includes four regional Maglev lines: 1) Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) to a redeveloped March Air Force Base (ATB); 2) Palmdale to LAX; 3) Palmdale to the Los Angeles Union Passenger Terminal (LAUPT); and 4) LAUPT to Orange County. Private financing is expected to cover system capital and operating costs. The SCAG Maglev Task Force has recommended an alignment along 1-405 for the Orange County route. This alignment will be brought to the full Maglev Task Force on October 15 for approval and then brought to SCAG's Transportation Communications Committee and Regional Council for approval in November. Since issuing the 2000 RTP, SCAG has completed preliminary studies of three projects including LAX -March AFB, LAX -Palmdale Airport, and LAUPT-central Orange County. These studies recommended proceeding with more detailed planning to refine costs, ridership, revenues, and developing a financing plan. SCAG recently awarded a contract to Lockheed Martin for more detailed planning and engineering analysis for a potential Maglev Initial Operation Segment (IOS). SCAG focused this effort on LAUPT as the anchor terminal for the IOS. On December 5, 2002, SCAG's Regional Council approved the IOS for the Maglev system, which extends between West Los Angeles, LAUPT, and Ontario Airport. The IOS spans 56 miles and includes four stations. The SCAG action included the IOS approval, continued work on all three of the corridors, and qualified support for the proposed Cal -Nevada project Funding streams and revenues have not yet been established. SCAG Maglev initiatives are discussed monthly at the Maglev Task Force meetings. 3. CNSSTC Maglev Efforts The CNSSTC is a developing a high-speed maglev rail system linking Las Vegas, Nevada with Barstow, Ontario, and Anaheim, California. Preliminary planning started in December 2002 on the Anaheim to Ontario segment of the project the work was funded by a $1.1 million grant and local contributions of $125,000 each from the cities of Anaheim and Ontario, OCTA, the San Bernardino Associated Governments (SANBAG) and the Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District. The study was completed on August 1 and submitted to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). The study serves as California High -Speed Rail Update Page 4 the Commission's Notice of Intent (NOI) to the FRA to develop a federal Programmatic Environmental Statement and a California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Report for the Anaheim -Ontario segment. OCTA staff is currently reviewing the report and preparing comments. The Commission received a new contract from FRA for $1.14 million for a new study regarding cost, alignment, environment and ridership on the Ontario- Victorville-Barstow segments. As part of this study, the Commission might also analyze the impact of adding a station at Corona on the Anaheim -Ontario link. The Commission will focus on beginning the Programmatic Construction Grade Environmental Report for the Las Vegas to Primm portion. Preparation of this document will cost $3 million to $5 million and take approximately 18 months. Nevada Department of Transportation, FRA and the Commission will undertake this work. If funding is available, the Commission will prepare a programmatic Construction Grade Environmental Report for the Anaheim -Ontario segment. Preparation of this document will cost approximately $2 million. SCAG will evaluate the connection between Anaheim and Ontario to determine if it meets SCAG maglev corridor requirements. SCAG staff would then consider the project for inclusion in the 2004 RTP update. Summary Various efforts are underway to provide high-speed ground transportation to Orange County and Inland Empire residents and workers. OCTA staff is monitoring the three high-speed multi -county rail programs currently under study and will continue to participate in these studies. • • • Item 7 PA1 OCTA October 03, 2003 To: State Route 91 Advisory Committee From: Rick Teichert, Director of Operations Tom Franklin, Manager of Bus Transp ation lj Subject: Implementation Status of Express Bus Service from Riverside County into Orange County Overview The Orange County Transportation Authority is continuously exploring innovative transportational programs connecting the Inland Empire residents working in Orange County. The congestion levels on the Riverside Freeway/State Route 91 are expected to worsen as development continues in the Inland Empire and the demand for employment in Orange County increases. The expansion of Express Bus Service is one of the transit components in minimizing the congestion on the eight -lane Riverside Freeway/State Route 91. Recommendation Receive and file as information item. Discussion The Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) has traditionally supported the development and implementation of regional transportation, participating in the implementation of regional commuter rail services, operating express bus services into Los Angeles, financially contributing to the operation of express bus services from Riverside into Orange County, and through interagency transfer agreements with a number of bus operators in adjacent counties including Long Beach Transit, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the Riverside Transit Agency and North County Transit District. In September 2001, OCTA embarked on a ten-year transportation planning approach, which identified ten strategic initiatives designed specifically to maintain and improve mobility in Orange County. The expansion of Express Bus Service is an important transit component of OCTA's Strategic Initiatives Orange County Transportation Authority 550 South Main Street / P. O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584 / (714) 560-OCTA (6282) Implementation Status of Express Bus Service from Page 2 Riverside County into Orange County program, specifically to address the increasing level of congestion along the State Route 91 (SR -91) corridor, linking residents of the Inland Empire with employment centers in Orange County. SR -91 Express Bus Service Planning During Fiscal Year 2001-02, OCTA's Strategic Planning staff worked to develop a service scenario in cooperation with the Service/Route Planning group. The planning effort consisted of developing routes that would provide commuter service from the Inland Empire into different employment markets within Orange County. Four destination areas were identified during this process: • Northeast Anaheim Business Complex and CSUF • Anaheim Civic Center, Western Medical Center and Disneyland Irvine Business Center and UCI • Hutton Center and South Coast Metro Two trip origins were identified, the Galleria at Tyler in Riverside and a location to -be -determined in west Corona. Other service elements were outlined during the planning process including the use of over -the -road coaches as well as the use of the high occupancy vehicles (HOV) network and 91 Express Toll Lanes to deliver service that would adequately compete with single -occupancy auto commuters. The operating scenario assumed that the service would be contracted out as a way of expediting implementation. Cost estimates were developed using a base cost of $125 per vehicle service hour (VSH). In addition to the service elements of the program, planning staff discussed the project with both the Riverside County Transportation Commission (RCTC) and the Riverside Transit Agency (RTA) and together, the two agencies agreed to fund 40% of the operating costs based on the $125 per VSH estimate. Both agencies further endorsed the project by approving funds for Fiscal Years 2002-03 and 2003-04. SR -91 Express Bus Implementation In Fiscal Year 2002-03, OCTA initiated a procurement process to select a contract operator for these express bus services. Although OCTA currently operates express bus services into Los Angeles using OCTA drivers who belong to a collective bargaining unit, during the most recent negotiation, an agreement was made to privatize express bus services in the future since Implementation Status of Express Bus Service from Page 3 Riverside County into Orange County members of the existing coach operator staff would not be adversely impacted. Because of this agreement, two of the SR -91 routes would be implemented in the first year of the contract with the existing service into Los Angeles transitioning to the contract operation in the second year, and the remaining two SR -91 routes would be implemented during the third year of the agreement. In total, three procurements were conducted to select a contract operator to provide express bus services. In all three procurements, staff did not proceed with a recommendation to the Board because the cost to provide the service far exceeded the cost estimates for providing the service, in some cases by as much as three times the original estimate. Procurement Details Proposals were due for the three procurements conducted on: • October 17, 2002 • February 6, 2003 • May 22, 2003 Procurement 1 - The initial procurement contained the various service elements developed during the planning process. Basically a turn -key program, the contractor would provide accessible over -the -road coaches with commuter amenities and specific service branding (13 vehicles initially); an operating, storage and maintenance facility; all personnel necessary to manage, operate, and supervise services as well as maintain the vehicles for the program. The term of the contract was 3 years with two one-year options. Costs were requested under a fixed and variable rate structure. One bid was received at an approximate cost of $327.89 per vehicle service hour or an annual cost of $2.59 million for the first year of operation. Procurement 2 — In the second procurement, still a turn -key operation, various elements of the first request for proposal (RFP) were modified to create a more competitive environment including: - decrease in performance bond from 100% to 50% of contract value decrease in comp general liability from $2M to $1 M per occurrence decrease in retention and released annually after audit of expenses Implementation Status of Express Bus Service from Page 4 Riverside County into Orange County fixed and variable rate based on vehicle service miles rather than vehicle service hours vehicles required to be clean fuel and accessible, still provided by contractor Two proposals were received at an approximate cost of $372.11 per VSH and $293.48 per VSH for an annual cost of $2.94M and $2.91 M. Procurement 3 — In the most recent procurement, one element was modified to foster a more competitive response including: - vehicles were changed to mid -size with commuter amenities One proposal was received at an approximate cost of $430.56 per VSH for a total cost of $3.4M in the first year. For all three procurements, representatives from the RCTC and RTA were on the evaluation panel and had access to the costs proposed. RCTC, RTA and OCTA staff worked on the development of a three -party cooperative agreement, but the agreement has not been finalized because the cost elements of the program have not been solidified. Under each of the three procurements conducted, RTA and RCTC would not be able to provide a 40% contribution to the SR -91 express bus program since their participation was capped by a dollar amount based on original project estimates. Next Steps Two primary reasons come to mind to explain why the costs proposed were so much higher than the original planning estimate. The cost of the capital to be acquired (especially clean -fuel vehicles) is so great and the number of vehicle service hours so small (less than 10,000 in the first year of service), that the amortization of the capital acquisition is significantly affecting the operating costs. The term of the agreement further affects this since the amortization is then only spread over the initial term (3 years in this case). Under the advice of OCTA's Manager of Contract Administration and Materials Management, a subsequent procurement has been delayed to allow time to explore other service options that would improve the affordability of the project. Among these, the following are being given consideration: • use borrowed clean -fuel vehicles from RTA, contracting with RTA for vehicle storage and maintenance, but providing either OCTA coach operators or contract vehicle operators; discussions are scheduled with Implementation Status of Express Bus Service from Page 5 Riverside County into Orange County OCTA's collective bargaining unit to determine if this is a feasible operating scenario • OCTA purchase of vehicles with contract or in-house operation of services to lower the operating cost by removing the amortization of capital costs over a short contract term. • OCTA currently has a federal funding request for forty-six vehicles sponsored by Congressman Miller. Determination of the success of this funding effort will be a significant factor in moving the Express Bus program forward. Other elements that still require additional staff effort include: • Negotiation and preparation of a cooperative agreement with RCTC and RTA, addressing the subsidy amount if that needs to be modified • Developing a marketing effort including system branding with RCTC and RTA participation (this effort has been started but requires additional work) • Finalize routing and schedules, incorporating the new park -and -ride location acquired by the RCTC in Corona since the initial procurement was conducted • Once an implementation timeline has been established, schedule a public hearing early in the implementation process to consider the introduction of these new services and the recommended fare structure (which is different from the existing express bus fare structure) Summary While this memo summarizes much of the work that has been done to implement Express Bus Service from the Inland Empire to employment destinations in Orange County, it does not address the financial impacts of implementing the SR -91 express bus service. It will be critical to the viability of the program to ensure we have a commitment for joint funding and that the service be implemented in the most cost-effective and efficient manner possible. Attachment None