HomeMy Public PortalAbout08 August 03, 2012 SR-91 Advisory AGENDA
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
Page 1 of 3
Committee Members
Bill Campbell, OCTA, Chairman
Bob Magee, RCTC, Vice Chairman
Jerry Amante, OCTA
Bob Buster, RCTC
Carolyn V. Cavecche, OCTA
Lorri Galloway, OCTA
Michael Hennessey, OCTA
Berwin Hanna, RCTC
Karen Spiegel, RCTC
John Tavaglione, RCTC
Ed Graham, SANBAG, Ex-Officio
Ron Roberts, RCTC, Alternate
City of Corona - City Hall
400 South Vicentia Avenue
City Council Chambers - First Floor
Corona, California
Friday, August 3, 2012, at 9:00 a.m.
Any person with a disability who requires a modification or accommodation in order to
participate in this meeting should contact the OCTA Clerk of the Board, telephone
(714) 560-5676, no less than two (2) business days prior to this meeting to enable
OCTA to make reasonable arrangements to assure accessibility to this meeting.
Agenda descriptions are intended to give members of the public a general summary of
items of business to be transacted or discussed. The posting of the recommended
actions does not indicate what action will be taken. The Com mittee may take any
action which it deems to be appropriate on the agenda item and is not limited in any
way by the notice of the recommended action.
All documents relative to the items referenced in this agenda are available for public
inspection at www.octa.net or through the Clerk of the Board’s office at the OCTA
Headquarters, 600 South Main Street, Orange, California.
Call to Order
Pledge of Allegiance
Committee Vice Chairman Magee
1. Public Comments
Special Calendar
There are no Special Calendar matters.
AGENDA
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
Page 2 of 3
Consent Calendar (Items 2 and 3)
All items on the Consent Calendar are to be approved in one motion unless a
Committee Member or a member of the public requests separate action or
discussion on a specific item.
2. Approval of Minutes
Of the June 1, 2012, State Route 91 Advisory Committee meeting.
3. 91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports
Kirk Avila, General Manager of the 91 Express Lanes
Orange County Transportation Authority
Overview
The 91 Express Lanes status reports for the months of May 2012 and June 2012
have been prepared for State Route 91 Advisory Committee review. The reports
highlight operational and financial activities.
Recommendation
Receive and file the 91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Repor ts for the months of
May 2012 and June 2012.
Regular Calendar
4. Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation Commission
91 Express Lanes
Michael Blomquist, Toll Program Director
Riverside County Transportation Commission
Overview
As part of the Riverside County Transportation Commission’s proposed
extension of the 91 Express Lanes a toll policy for the Riverside County portion
of the facility and an investment grade traffic and revenue study were prepared
to support long-term toll revenue projections and a project financing in 2013.
The toll policy and traffic and revenue study were adopted by the RCTC Western
Riverside County Programs and Projects Committee May 21, 2012 and the full
Commission at its June 7th, 2012 meeting. This report presents the adopted toll
policy and traffic and revenue study.
Recommendation
Receive and file as an information item.
AGENDA
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
Page 3 of 3
Discussion Items
5. State Route 91 Widening Project Update
Fernando Chavarria, Community Relations Officer
Orange County Transportation Authority
The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and the
Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) are working together to improve
State Route 91 (SR-91). The SR-91 Westbound and Eastbound Lane Addition
Project broke ground in August 2011. Currently, the project is more than
half-way done and project completion is estimated for early 2013. The project is
adding 12 lane miles to SR-91 between SR-55 and SR-241, as well as second
eastbound exit lanes at Lakeview Avenue, Imperial Highway and Yorba Linda
Boulevard/Weir Canyon Road. Gloria Roberts, Chief of Public Information for
Caltrans District 12, will provide an update on project construction through
July 2012.
6. General Manager's Report
7. Committee Members' Reports
8. Adjournment
The next regularly scheduled meeting of this Committee will be held at
9:00 a.m. on Friday, December 7, 2012, at the OCTA Headquarters, Board
Room – First Floor, 600 South Main Street, Orange, California.
MINUTES
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
June 1, 2012 Page 1 of 4
Committee Members Present
Bill Campbell, OCTA, Chairman
Bob Magee, RCTC, Vice Chairman
Jerry Amante, OCTA
Carolyn V. Cavecche, OCTA
Lorri Galloway, OCTA
Karen Spiegel, RCTC
Syed Raza, Caltrans District 8, Ex-Officio
Committee Members Absent
Bob Buster, RCTC
Berwin Hanna, RCTC
Michael Hennessey, OCTA
John Tavaglione, RCTC
Ron Roberts, RCTC, Alternate
Ed Graham, SANBAG, Ex-Officio
Staff Present
Will Kempton, Chief Executive Officer
Anne Mayer, RCTC, Executive Director
Kirk Avila, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes
Kennard R. Smart, Jr., General Counsel
Steve DeBaun, RCTC, Legal Counsel
Laurena Weinert, Assistant Clerk of the Board
Mary K. Burton, Deputy Clerk of the Board
OCTA and RCTC staff and General Public
Call to Order
The June 1, 2012, regular meeting of the State Route 91 Advisory Committee was
called to order by Committee Chairman Campbell at 9:05 a.m.
Pledge of Allegiance
Member Cavecche led in the Pledge of Allegiance.
1. Public Comments
No public comments were received.
Special Calendar
There were no Special Calendar matters.
Consent Calendar (Items 2 through 5)
2. Approval of Minutes
A motion was made by Member Amante, seconded by Member Galloway, and
declared passed by those present, to approve minutes of the March 2, 2012,
meeting.
MINUTES
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
June 1, 2012 Page 2 of 4
3. Performance Audit of the 91 Express Lanes Revenue and Account
Management Software System
Committee Chairman Campbell pulled this item and requested that Kirk Avila,
General Manager of 91 Express Lanes, provide an update.
Mr. Avila reported that in June 2011 Orange County Transportation Authority
(OCTA) converted to a new 91 Express Lanes revenue and account
management software system, which was developed by Cofiroute. A few
months after the deployment of the system, there were glitches that needed to
be addressed.
At the request of OCTA Director Bill Campbell, a performance audit was
conducted to test the controls and integrity of the system . Mr. Avila highlighted
the five audit recommendations to further enhance the internal controls. An
update will be presented to the OCTA Finance and Administration Committee
within 180 days.
Committee Chairman Campbell reported that this audit was triggered by the
Orange County Employees’ Retirement System new software glitches in which
the system failed to capture special compensation. In addition, the Cofiroute
new software had glitches with the reporting of certain Transportation Corridor
Agencies’ transactions.
A motion was made by Committee Chair Campbell, seconded by
Member Cavecche, and declared passed by those present, to receive and file as
an information item.
4. 91 Express Lanes Anaheim Facility Lease Renewal
A motion was made by Member Amante, seconded by Member Galloway, and
declared passed by those present, to receive and file as an information item.
5. 91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports
A motion was made by Member Amante, seconded by Member Galloway, and
declared passed by those present, to receive and file the 91 Express Lanes
Monthly Status Reports for the months of February 2012 through April 2012.
MINUTES
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
June 1, 2012 Page 3 of 4
Regular Calendar
6. Draft 2012 State Route 91 Implementation Plan
Alison Army, OCTA Senior Transportation Analyst, presented the Draft 2012
State Route (SR) 91 Implementation Plan:
Background
Projects by year 2015
Projects between 2016–2025 and 2026-2035
Irvine-Corona Expressway
Traffic summary p.m. eastbound and a.m. westbound
Recommendations/next steps
A motion was made by Member Cavecche, seconded by Member Spiegel, and
declared passed by those present, to approve the Draft 2012 State Route 91
Implementation Plan.
Discussion Items
7. General Manager’s Report
Kirk Avila, General Manager of 91 Express Lanes, reported that:
91 Express Lanes traffic has increased by 10.2 percent, and toll revenues are
up 9 percent for the first 19 days in May.
The SR-91 widening project from the SR-55 to SR-241 conversion of the old
to the new gantries project was completed in February 2012.
OCTA and Riverside County Transportation Commission (RCTC) continue to
meet with Cofiroute to negotiate a three -party agreement regarding the
extension of the tollroad.
Anne Mayer, RCTC Executive Director:
Reported that on the status of the draft Request for Proposal for the SR-91
Corridor Improvement Project.
Reported that on May 31, Ms. Mayer signed the lease documents for the toll
facility and
50 years lease executed with Caltrans.
Thanked the Committee for their engagement and support of staff in order to
get the projects implemented.
MINUTES
State Route 91 Advisory Committee Meeting
June 1, 2012 Page 4 of 4
7. (Continued)
Committee Chairman Campbell inquired about the reason for the May toll and
revenue increases and asked Kirk Avila to comment on the budget.
Mr. Avila responded that past status reports have shown repeated toll decreases
with revenue numbers significantly lower than the traffic numbers. In regards to
next fiscal year, staff budgeted for lower toll revenues, which is a result of the
SR-91 widening project from the SR-55 to SR-241.
8. Committee Members’ Reports
There were no Committee Members’ reports.
9. Adjournment
The meeting adjourned at 9:25 a.m.
The next regularly scheduled meeting of this Committee will be held at 9:00 a.m.
on Friday, August 3, 2012, at the City of Corona – City Hall, Council Chambers,
First Floor, 400 South Vicentia, Corona, California.
ATTEST
Laurena Weinert
Assistant Clerk of the Board
Bill Campbell
Committee Chairman
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports
Staff Report
Orange County Transportation Authority
550 South Main Street / P.O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584 / (714) 560-OCTA (6282)
August 3, 2012
To: State Route 91 Advisory Committee
From: Kirk Avila, General Manager, 91 Express Lanes
Subject: 91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports
Overview
The 91 Express Lanes status reports for the months of May 2012 and June 2012
have been prepared for State Route 91 Advisory Committee review. The reports
highlight operational and financial activities.
Recommendation
Receive and file the 91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports for the months
of May 2012 and June 2012.
Background
Monthly status reports are prepared to document 91 Express Lanes activity and
are provided for State Route 91 Advisory Committee review.
Discussion
The May 2012 status report for the 91 Express Lanes is provided in
Attachment A. In May 2012, traffic volume in the 91 Express Lanes increased
9.6 percent over the same period in 2011 and gross potential toll revenue
increased by 9.1 percent as compared to the prior year.
The June 2012 status report is provided in Attachment B. In June 2012, traffic
volume increased by 7 percent over the same period in 2011 while gross
potential toll revenue increased by 4.6 percent.
Fiscal year 2011-12 year-to-date (YTD) traffic volume and toll revenue as of
the end of June 2012 were down when compared to the prior year, with YTD
traffic volume marginally decreasing by 0.5 percent and YTD potential toll
revenue down by 3.2 percent.
91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports Page 2
Staff will continue to closely monitor traffic and revenue data and report back to
the State Route 91 Advisory Committee regularly.
Summary
The 91 Express Lanes status report for the months of May 2012 and
June 2012 are provided for review. The report highlights operational and
financial activities.
Attachments
A. 91 Express Lanes Status Report – As of May 31, 2012
B. 91 Express Lanes Status Report – As of June 30, 2012
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports
Attachment A
ATTACHMENT A
Orange County Transportation Authority
SSttaattuuss RReeppoorrtt
MMaayy 22001122
As of May 31, 2012
2
. . . . . . . . .
Operations Overview
Traffic and Revenue Statistics
Total traffic volume on the 91 Express Lanes for May 2012 was 1,047,289. This represents a
daily average of 33,784. This is a 9.6% increase in total traffic volume from the same period last
year when traffic levels totaled 955,251. Potential toll revenue for the month was $3,010,087
which represents an increase of 9.1% from the prior year’s total of $2,759,326. Carpool
percentage for the month was 23.6% as compared to the previous year’s rate of 24.3%.
Month-to-date traffic and revenue data are summarized in the table below. The following trip and
revenue statistics tables represent all trips taken on the 91 Express Lanes and associated
potential revenue for the month of May 2012.
Current Month-to-Date (MTD) as of May 31, 2012
(Fiscal Year (FY) 2011-12 data is for the corresponding month in that fiscal year)
Trips
May-12
MTD
Actual
Stantec
MTD
Projected
#
Variance
%
Variance
May-11
MTD
Actual
Yr-to-Yr
%
Variance
Full Toll Lanes 799,712 766,943 32,769 4.3%723,506 10.5%
3+ Lanes 247,577 268,357 (20,780)(7.7%)231,745 6.8%
Total Gross Trips 1,047,289 1,035,300 11,989 1.2%955,251 9.6%
Revenue
Full Toll Lanes $2,939,054 $2,739,018 $200,037 7.3%$2,687,535 9.4%
3+ Lanes $71,033 $71,433 ($400)(0.6%)$71,792 (1.1%)
Total Gross Revenue $3,010,087 $2,810,450 $199,637 7.1%$2,759,326 9.1%
Average Revenue per Trip
Average Full Toll Lanes $3.68 $3.57 $0.11 3.1%$3.71 (0.8%)
Average 3+ Lanes $0.29 $0.27 $0.02 7.4%$0.31 (6.5%)
Average Revenue Per Trip $2.87 $2.71 $0.16 5.9%$2.89 (0.7%)
3
. . . . . . . . .
The 2012 fiscal year-to-date (YTD) traffic volume is 1.1% lower than the same period last year.
The 2012 fiscal year-to-date revenue is 3.9% lower than for the same period last year. Year-to-
date average revenue per-trip is $2.88 and 4.7% higher than Stantec’s projections.
Fiscal year-to-date traffic and revenue data are summarized in the table below. The following trip
and revenue statistics tables represent all trips taken on the 91 Express Lanes and associated
potential revenue for the months of July 2011 through May 2012.
FY 2011-12 to Date as of May 31, 2012
(FY 2011-12 data is for the period July 1, 2011 through May 31, 2012; FY 2010-11 data is for the corresponding period in that fiscal year.)
Trips
FY 2011-12
YTD
Actual
Stantec
YTD
Projected
#
Variance
%
Variance
FY 2010-11
YTD
Actual
Yr-to-Yr
%
Variance
Full Toll Lanes 8,275,049 8,296,857 (21,808)(0.3%)8,389,010 (1.4%)
3+ Lanes 2,616,017 2,882,600 (266,583)(9.2%)2,625,263 (0.4%)
Total Trips 10,891,066 11,179,457 (288,391)(2.6%)11,014,273 (1.1%)
Full Toll Lanes $30,616,659 $29,960,064 $656,596 2.2%$31,771,492 (3.6%)
3+ Lanes $781,717 $786,947 ($5,230)(0.7%)$897,492 (12.9%)
Total Revenue $31,398,376 $30,747,011 $651,366 2.1%$32,668,984 (3.9%)
Full Toll Lanes $3.70 $3.61 $0.09 2.5%$3.79 (2.4%)
3+ Lanes $0.30 $0.27 $0.03 11.1%$0.34 (11.8%)
Revenue Per Trip $2.88 $2.75 $0.13 4.7%$2.97 (3.0%)
4
. . . . . . . . .
Traffic and Revenue Summary
The chart below reflects the total trips breakdown between Full Toll trips and HOV3+ trips for
FY 2011-12 on a monthly basis.
724,753 793,176 745,803 757,185 711,450 743,688 719,199 736,160 783,889 760,210 799,712
271,673
255,204
224,985 225,500 225,749 250,951 220,294 222,695
229,952 241,457 247,577
175,000
350,000
525,000
700,000
875,000
1,050,000
1,225,000
1,400,000
Jul-11 Aug -11 Sep -11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec -11 Jan -12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun -12
Vo
l
u
m
e
Month
FY 2011-12 Traffic Volume Overview
3+ Lanes Full Toll Lanes
The chart below reflects the gross potential revenue breakdown between Full Toll trips and
HOV3+ trips for FY 2011-12 on a monthly basis.
2,628,028
2,917,855
2,826,509
2,768,314
2,638,808
2,762,232
2,676,584
2,739,478
2,938,927
2,764,743
2,939,054
76,846
80,028
73,313
67,105
62,838
73,916
70,655
67,955
74,357
64,382
71,033
$2,500,000
$2,600,000
$2,700,000
$2,800,000
$2,900,000
$3,000,000
$3,100,000
Jul-11 Aug -11 Sep -11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan -12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun -12
Re
v
e
n
u
e
Month
FY 2011-12 Revenue Summary
Full Toll Lanes 3+ Lanes
5
. . . . . . . . .
Peak traffic hour in the eastbound direction reached or exceeded 90% or more of defined
capacity twice during the month of May 2012. As demonstrated on the next chart, westbound
peak hour traffic volumes top out at 70% of defined capacity.
EASTBOUND PEAK-HOUR VOLUMES
PM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
1400 - 1500 $4.15 253 1,715 50%$4.15 225 1,509 44%$4.25 253 1,825 54%$3.10 407 2,768 81%
1500 - 1600 $3.70 494 2,653 78%$3.95 486 2,795 82%$4.95 500 2,732 80%$9.75 617 2,818 83%
1600 - 1700 $6.30 470 2,656 78%$6.80 446 2,731 80%$8.95 475 2,710 80%$8.85 494 2,999 88%
1700 - 1800 $5.75 424 2,618 77%$7.00 443 2,543 75%$8.30 469 2,633 77%$6.50 456 2,740 81%
1800 - 1900 $3.60 496 2,195 65%$3.60 367 2,046 60%$4.40 446 2,235 66%$5.35 462 2,338 69%
1900 - 2000 $3.15 241 1,103 32%$3.15 257 1,180 35%$4.55 273 1,362 40%$5.00 383 1,549 46%
PM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
1400 - 1500 $4.15 211 1,477 43%$4.15 223 1,645 48%$4.15 227 1,704 50%$4.25 297 1,960 58%$3.10 378 2,800 82%
1500 - 1600 $4.45 473 2,349 69%$3.70 499 2,525 74%$3.95 520 2,991 88%$4.95 491 2,709 80%$9.75 561 2,782 82%
1600 - 1700 $4.55 428 2,517 74%$6.30 467 2,680 79%$6.80 513 2,944 87%$8.95 505 2,902 85%$8.85 233 1,326 39%
1700 - 1800 $4.85 433 2,415 71%$5.75 465 2,619 77%$7.00 448 2,699 79%$8.30 485 2,833 83%$6.50 342 2,051 60%
1800 - 1900 $4.45 412 1,946 57%$3.60 438 2,150 63%$3.60 433 2,347 69%$4.40 466 2,485 73%$5.35 544 2,842 84%
1900 - 2000 $3.15 223 1,015 30%$3.15 245 1,206 35%$3.15 267 1,297 38%$4.55 331 1,518 45%$5.00 338 1,434 42%
PM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
1400 - 1500 $4.15 219 1,531 45%$4.15 222 1,651 49%$4.15 253 1,713 50%$4.25 277 2,272 67%$3.10 395 2,668 78%
1500 - 1600 $4.45 483 2,372 70%$3.70 527 2,585 76%$3.95 479 2,686 79%$4.95 559 2,968 87%$9.75 645 3,019 89%
1600 - 1700 $4.55 442 2,715 80%$6.30 470 2,668 78%$6.80 463 2,760 81%$8.95 526 3,069 90%$8.85 534 3,025 89%
1700 - 1800 $4.85 449 2,571 76%$5.75 453 2,692 79%$7.00 447 2,639 78%$8.30 475 2,852 84%$6.50 455 2,745 81%
1800 - 1900 $4.45 413 1,848 54%$3.60 483 2,438 72%$3.60 461 2,298 68%$4.40 493 2,521 74%$5.35 474 2,344 69%
1900 - 2000 $3.15 235 1,085 32%$3.15 313 1,361 40%$3.15 276 1,347 40%$4.55 305 1,560 46%$5.00 339 1,457 43%
PM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
1400 - 1500 $4.15 226 1,590 47%$4.15 251 1,697 50%$4.15 237 1,662 49%$4.25 288 2,012 59%$3.10 492 2,742 81%
1500 - 1600 $4.45 516 2,383 70%$3.70 496 2,564 75%$3.95 518 2,722 80%$4.95 527 2,719 80%$9.75 698 2,735 80%
1600 - 1700 $4.55 449 2,543 75%$6.30 483 2,660 78%$6.80 515 2,938 86%$8.95 560 3,055 90%$8.85 517 2,586 76%
1700 - 1800 $4.85 419 2,922 86%$5.75 455 2,687 79%$7.00 458 2,745 81%$8.30 493 2,819 83%$6.50 439 2,334 69%
1800 - 1900 $4.45 423 2,070 61%$3.60 475 2,197 65%$3.60 487 2,496 73%$4.40 482 2,555 75%$5.35 427 1,913 56%
1900 - 2000 $3.15 208 1,020 30%$3.15 252 1,160 34%$3.15 280 1,443 42%$4.55 378 1,538 45%$5.00 411 1,426 42%
PM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
1400 - 1500 $3.45 245 680 20%$4.15 220 1,544 45%$4.15 303 1,791 53%$4.25 290 1,813 53%
1500 - 1600 $3.45 266 668 20%$3.70 489 2,498 73%$3.95 515 2,736 80%$4.95 549 2,753 81%
1600 - 1700 $3.45 299 765 23%$6.30 478 2,679 79%$6.80 473 2,839 84%$8.95 494 2,698 79%
1700 - 1800 $3.45 305 731 22%$5.75 381 2,256 66%$7.00 481 2,622 77%$8.30 510 2,709 80%
1800 - 1900 $3.45 352 732 22%$3.60 487 2,441 72%$3.60 480 2,183 64%$4.40 440 2,323 68%
1900 - 2000 $3.45 382 727 21%$3.15 270 1,252 37%$3.15 295 1,344 40%$4.55 331 1,489 44%
Monday 04/30/12 Tuesday 05/01/12 Wednesday 05/02/12 Thursday 05/03/12 Friday 05/04/12
Monday 05/07/12 Tuesday 05/08/12 Wednesday 05/09/12 Thursday 05/10/12 Friday 05/11/12
Monday 05/14/12 Tuesday 05/15/12 Wednesday 05/16/12 Thursday 05/17/12 Friday 05/18/12
Monday 05/21/12 Tuesday 05/22/12 Wednesday 05/23/12 Thursday 05/24/12 Friday 05/25/12
Monday 05/28/12 Tuesday 05/29/12 Wednesday 05/30/12 Thursday 05/31/12 Friday 06/01/12
6
. . . . . . . . .
WESTBOUND PEAK-HOUR VOLUMES
AM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
0400 - 0500 $2.45 284 652 19%$2.45 226 493 15%$2.45 262 634 19%$2.45 215 558 16%
0500 - 0600 $4.00 508 1,821 54%$4.00 492 1,675 49%$4.00 536 1,865 55%$3.85 511 1,701 50%
0600 - 0700 $4.15 540 2,300 68%$4.15 557 2,377 70%$4.15 536 2,288 67%$4.00 500 2,104 62%
0700 - 0800 $4.60 486 2,266 67%$4.60 472 2,246 66%$4.60 501 2,102 62%$4.45 430 1,916 56%
0800 - 0900 $4.15 238 1,918 56%$4.15 210 1,906 56%$4.15 216 1,649 49%$4.00 196 1,282 38%
0900 - 1000 $3.30 181 1,657 49%$3.30 167 1,315 39%$3.30 151 1,121 33%$3.30 185 1,289 38%
AM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
0400 - 0500 $2.45 259 634 19%$2.45 268 631 19%$2.45 279 628 18%$2.45 267 604 18%$2.45 223 541 16%
0500 - 0600 $4.00 491 1,836 54%$4.00 546 1,873 55%$4.00 520 1,808 53%$4.00 540 1,896 56%$3.85 471 1,654 49%
0600 - 0700 $4.15 531 2,242 66%$4.15 547 2,236 66%$4.15 567 2,258 66%$4.15 548 2,295 68%$4.00 521 2,052 60%
0700 - 0800 $4.60 463 2,174 64%$4.60 471 2,141 63%$4.60 452 2,085 61%$4.60 464 2,166 64%$4.45 421 1,772 52%
0800 - 0900 $4.15 227 1,822 54%$4.15 226 1,714 50%$4.15 228 1,785 53%$4.15 237 1,635 48%$4.00 163 1,234 36%
0900 - 1000 $3.30 199 1,379 41%$3.30 167 1,227 36%$3.30 200 1,375 40%$3.30 165 1,279 38%$3.30 156 1,008 30%
AM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
0400 - 0500 $2.45 269 654 19%$2.45 281 612 18%$2.45 286 633 19%$2.45 294 643 19%$2.45 228 576 17%
0500 - 0600 $4.00 501 1,861 55%$4.00 549 1,873 55%$4.00 518 1,823 54%$4.00 519 1,872 55%$3.85 475 1,681 49%
0600 - 0700 $4.15 523 2,243 66%$4.15 533 2,288 67%$4.15 531 2,203 65%$4.15 559 2,287 67%$4.00 513 2,089 61%
0700 - 0800 $4.60 428 2,001 59%$4.60 469 2,122 62%$4.60 469 2,143 63%$4.60 443 2,091 62%$4.45 435 1,863 55%
0800 - 0900 $4.15 199 1,748 51%$4.15 241 1,890 56%$4.15 313 1,716 50%$4.15 201 1,530 45%$4.00 190 1,299 38%
0900 - 1000 $3.30 169 1,315 39%$3.30 198 1,563 46%$3.30 208 1,618 48%$3.30 178 1,299 38%$3.30 169 1,015 30%
AM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
0400 - 0500 $2.45 257 624 18%$2.45 291 658 19%$2.45 278 632 19%$2.45 286 591 17%$2.45 203 515 15%
0500 - 0600 $4.00 498 1,825 54%$4.00 510 1,852 54%$4.00 541 1,820 54%$4.00 527 1,845 54%$3.85 451 1,533 45%
0600 - 0700 $4.15 547 2,296 68%$4.15 549 2,187 64%$4.15 524 2,280 67%$4.15 541 2,313 68%$4.00 467 1,712 50%
0700 - 0800 $4.60 442 2,022 59%$4.60 460 2,067 61%$4.60 458 2,137 63%$4.60 474 2,126 63%$4.45 377 1,501 44%
0800 - 0900 $4.15 245 1,623 48%$4.15 227 1,739 51%$4.15 242 1,722 51%$4.15 258 1,739 51%$4.00 179 1,112 33%
0900 - 1000 $3.30 164 1,126 33%$3.30 188 1,295 38%$3.30 156 1,142 34%$3.30 207 1,312 39%$3.30 157 937 28%
AM Time Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.Price HOV Vol. Cap.
0400 - 0500 $1.30 17 43 1%$2.45 234 580 17%$2.45 259 612 18%$2.45 257 602 18%
0500 - 0600 $1.30 29 82 2%$4.00 523 1,836 54%$4.00 522 1,822 54%$4.00 533 1,825 54%
0600 - 0700 $1.30 31 110 3%$4.15 489 2,243 66%$4.15 550 2,265 67%$4.15 531 2,128 63%
0700 - 0800 $1.30 78 184 5%$4.60 483 2,256 66%$4.60 473 2,086 61%$4.60 441 1,969 58%
0800 - 0900 $2.10 112 309 9%$4.15 264 1,791 53%$4.15 232 1,738 51%$4.15 206 1,616 48%
0900 - 1000 $2.95 268 625 18%$3.30 223 1,438 42%$3.30 185 1,379 41%$3.30 169 1,210 36%
Monday 04/30/11 Tuesday 05/01/11 Wednesday 05/02/11 Thursday 05/03/11 Friday 05/04/11
Monday 05/07/11 Tuesday 05/08/11 Wednesday 05/09/11 Thursday 05/10/11 Friday 05/11/11
Monday 05/14/11 Tuesday 05/15/11 Wednesday 05/16/11 Thursday 05/17/11 Friday 05/18/11
Monday 05/21/11 Tuesday 05/22/11 Wednesday 05/23/11
Monday 05/28/11 Tuesday 05/29/11 Wednesday 05/30/11 Thursday 05/31/11 Friday 06/01/11
Thursday 05/24/11 Friday 05/25/11
7
. . . . . . . . .
Transponder Distribution Status
Tags % of Total Tags % of Total
Issued
To New Accounts 673 28.6%744 31.5%669 33.4%
Additional Tags to Existing Accounts 427 18.2%530 22.4%402 20.1%
Replacement Transponders 1,252 53.2%1,090 46.1%932 46.5%
Total Issued 2,352 2,364 2,003
Returned
Account Closures 378 23.8%453 28.7%514 33.9%
Accounts Downsizing 174 11.0%124 7.9%155 10.2%
Defective Transponders 1,037 65.3%1,002 63.5%846 55.9%
Total Returned 1,589 1,579 1,515
Average To-Date
FY 2011-12TRANSPONDER DISTRIBUTION May-12 April-12
At the end of May 2012, the 91 Express Lanes had 112,261 active customer accounts, with
167,179 transponders assigned to those accounts.
Number of Accounts by Fiscal Year
As of May 31, 2012
97,001 98,569 100,528
106,280
113,263
118,416 119,992 117,888 114,556 114,138 112,584 112,261
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Fiscal Year
8
. . . . . . . . .
Operational Highlights
On-road Operations
Customer Assistance Specialists (CAS) responded to 104 calls during May. The CAS team
received 52 calls to assist disabled vehicles, 21 calls to remove debris and conducted 21 assists
or traffic breaks. The CAS provided assistance to 9 accidents in the Express Lanes and 1
accident in the general-purpose lanes.
9
. . . . . . . . .
Financial Highlights
91 Express Lanes
Operating Statement
Description Actual (1)Budget (1)Dollar $Percent (%)
Operating revenues:
Toll revenue 29,415,042.69 31,804,973.00$ (2,389,930.31)$ (7.5)
Fee revenue 6,563,127.48 5,411,989.00 1,151,138.48 21.3
Total operating revenues 35,978,170.17 37,216,962.00 (1,238,791.83) (3.3)
Operating expenses:
Contracted services 6,565,341.12 6,840,479.00 275,137.88 4.0
Administrative fee 1,563,102.42 2,111,659.00 548,556.58 26.0
Other professional services 585,467.01 1,462,355.00 876,887.99 60.0
Credit card processing fees 800,435.15 1,034,618.00 234,182.85 22.6
Toll road account servicing 427,980.84 967,065.00 539,084.16 55.7
Other insurance expense 282,257.16 729,000.00 446,742.84 61.3
Toll road maintenance supply repairs 225,519.43 265,240.00 39,720.57 15.0
Patrol services 365,595.10 366,400.00 804.90 0.2
Building equipment repairs and maint 335,138.72 633,105.00 297,966.28 47.1
Other services 21,510.80 112,925.00 91,414.20 81.0
Utilities 13,567.29 16,488.00 2,920.71 17.7
Office expense 29,078.52 142,665.00 113,586.48 79.6
Bad debt expense 4,525.44 - (4,525.44) N/A
Miscellaneous (2)165,545.92 246,026.00 80,480.08 32.7
Leases 343,559.58 380,140.00 36,580.42 9.6
Total operating expenses 11,728,624.50 15,308,165.00 3,579,540.50 23.4
Depreciation and amortization (3)8,021,727.35 - (8,021,727.35) N/A
Operating income (loss)16,227,818.32 21,908,797.00 (5,680,978.68) (25.9)
Nonoperating revenues (expenses):
Federal assistance grants - - - N/A
Interest income 595,533.15 1,543,972.00 (948,438.85) (61.4)
Interest expense (5,930,868.58) (6,058,932.00) 128,063.42 2.1
Other 76,041.30 - 76,041.30 N/A
Total nonoperating revenues (expenses)(5,259,294.13) (4,514,960.00) (744,334.13) (16.5)
Transfers in - - - N/A
Transfers out (101,715.79) - (101,715.79) N/A
Net income (loss)10,866,808.40$ 17,393,837.00$ (6,527,028.60)$ (37.5)
¹Actual amounts are accounted for on the accrual basis of accounting in an enterprise fund. Budget amounts are
accounted for on a modified accrual basis of accounting.
²Miscellaneous expenses include: Bond Insurance Costs, Bank Service Charge, Transponder Materials.
³Depreciation and amortization are not budgeted items.
YTD as of May 31, 2012 YTD Variance
Capital Asset Activity
During the eleven months ending May 31, 2012, capital asset activities included approximately
$285,965 for the purchase of transponders and $389,419 for the gantry relocation project.
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
91 Express Lanes Monthly Status Reports
Attachment B
ATTACHMENT B
Orange County Transportation Authority
SSttaattuuss RReeppoorrtt
JJuunnee 22001122
As of June 30, 2012
2
. . . . . . . . .
Operations Overview
Traffic and Revenue Statistics
Total traffic volume on the 91 Express Lanes for June 2012 was 1,053,489. This represents a
daily average of 35,116. This is a 7% increase in total traffic volume from the same period last
year when traffic levels totaled 984,554. Potential toll revenue for the month was $2,913,656
which represents an increase of 4.6% from the prior year’s total of $2,786,474. Carpool
percentage for the month was 25.23% as compared to the previous year’s rate of 25.13%.
Month-to-date traffic and revenue data are summarized in the table below. The following trip and
revenue statistics tables represent all trips taken on the 91 Express Lanes and associated
potential revenue for the month of June 2012.
Current Month-to-Date (MTD) as of June 30, 2012
(Fiscal Year (FY) 2011-12 data is for the corresponding month in that fiscal year)
Trips
Jun-12
MTD
Actual
Stantec
MTD
Projected
#
Variance
%
Variance
Jun-11
MTD
Actual
Yr-to-Yr
%
Variance
Full Toll Lanes 787,656 771,343 16,313 2.1%737,087 6.9%
3+ Lanes 265,833 265,700 133 0.1%247,467 7.4%
Total Gross Trips 1,053,489 1,037,043 16,446 1.6%984,554 7.0%
Revenue
Full Toll Lanes $2,839,720 $2,757,224 $82,496 3.0%$2,707,077 4.9%
3+ Lanes $73,935 $71,987 $1,948 2.7%$79,398 (6.9%)
Total Gross Revenue $2,913,656 $2,829,211 $84,444 3.0%$2,786,474 4.6%
Average Revenue per Trip
Average Full Toll Lanes $3.61 $3.57 $0.04 1.1%$3.67 (1.6%)
Average 3+ Lanes $0.28 $0.27 $0.01 3.7%$0.32 (12.5%)
Average Gross Revenue $2.77 $2.73 $0.04 1.5%$2.83 (2.1%)
3
. . . . . . . . .
The 2012 fiscal year-to-date (YTD) traffic volume is 0.5% lower than the same period last year.
The 2012 fiscal year-to-date revenue is 3.2% lower than for the same period last year. Year-to-
date average revenue per-trip is $2.87 and 4.4% higher than Stantec’s projections.
Fiscal year-to-date traffic and revenue data are summarized in the table below. The following trip
and revenue statistics tables represent all trips taken on the 91 Express Lanes and associated
potential revenue for the months of July 2011 through June 2012.
FY 2011-12 to Date as of June 30, 2012
(FY 2011-12 data is for the period July 1, 2011 through June 30, 2012; FY 2010-11 data is for the corresponding period in that fiscal year.)
Trips
FY 2011-12
YTD
Actual
Stantec
YTD
Projected
#
Variance
%
Variance
FY 2010-11
YTD
Actual
Yr-to-Yr
%
Variance
Full Toll Lanes 9,062,705 9,068,200 (5,495)(0.1%)9,126,097 (0.7%)
3+ Lanes 2,881,850 3,148,300 (266,450)(8.5%)2,872,730 0.3%
Total Gross Trips 11,944,555 12,216,500 (271,945)(2.2%)11,998,827 (0.5%)
Revenue
Full Toll Lanes $33,456,380 $32,717,288 $739,092 2.3%$34,478,568 (3.0%)
3+ Lanes $855,652 $858,934 ($3,282)(0.4%)$976,890 (12.4%)
Total Gross Revenue $34,312,032 $33,576,222 $735,810 2.2%$35,455,458 (3.2%)
Average Revenue per Trip
Average Full Toll Lanes $3.69 $3.61 $0.08 2.2%$3.78 (2.4%)
Average 3+ Lanes $0.30 $0.27 $0.03 11.1%$0.34 (11.8%)
Average Gross Revenue $2.87 $2.75 $0.12 4.4%$2.95 (2.7%)
4
. . . . . . . . .
Traffic and Revenue Summary
The chart below reflects the total trips breakdown between Full Toll trips and HOV3+ trips for
FY 2011-12 on a monthly basis.
724,753 793,176 745,803 757,185 711,450 743,688 719,199 736,160 783,889 760,210 799,712 787,656
271,673
255,204
224,985 225,500 225,749 250,951 220,294 222,695
229,952 241,457 247,577 265,833
175,000
350,000
525,000
700,000
875,000
1,050,000
1,225,000
1,400,000
Jul-11 Aug -11 Sep -11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec -11 Jan -12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun -12
Vo
l
u
m
e
Month
FY 2011-12 Traffic Volume Overview
3+ Lanes Full Toll Lanes
The chart below reflects the gross potential revenue breakdown between Full Toll trips and
HOV3+ trips for FY 2011-12 on a monthly basis.
2,628,028
2,917,855
2,826,509
2,768,314
2,638,808
2,762,232
2,676,584
2,739,478
2,938,927
2,764,743
2,939,054
2,839,720 76,846
80,028
73,313
67,105
62,838
73,916
70,655
67,955
74,357
64,382
71,033
73,935
$2,500,000
$2,600,000
$2,700,000
$2,800,000
$2,900,000
$3,000,000
$3,100,000
Jul-11 Aug -11 Sep -11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan -12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun -12
Re
v
e
n
u
e
Month
FY 2011-12 Revenue Summary
Full Toll Lanes 3+ Lanes
5
. . . . . . . . .
None of the peak traffic hour in the eastbound direction reached or exceeded 90% or more of
defined capacity during the month of June 2012. As demonstrated on the next chart, westbound
peak hour traffic volumes top out at 70% of defined capacity.
EASTBOUND PEAK-HOUR VOLUMES
6
. . . . . . . . .
WESTBOUND PEAK-HOUR VOLUMES
Transponder Distribution Status
7
. . . . . . . . .
At the end of June 2012, the 91 Express Lanes had 112,473 active customer accounts, with
167,329 transponders assigned to those accounts.
Number of Accounts by Fiscal Year
As of June 30, 2012
97,001 98,569 100,528
106,280
113,263
118,416 119,992 117,888 114,556 114,138 112,584 112,473
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Fiscal Year
Tags % of Total Tags % of Total
Issued
To New Accounts 784 30.7%673 28.6%741 33.1%
Additional Tags to Existing Accounts 401 15.7%427 18.2%439 19.6%
Replacement Transponders 1,372 53.7%1,252 53.2%1,057 47.3%
Total Issued 2,557 2,352 2,236
Returned
Account Closures 468 26.4%378 23.8%557 33.2%
Accounts Downsizing 122 6.9%174 11.0%166 9.9%
Defective Transponders 1,184 66.7%1,037 65.3%954 56.9%
Total Returned 1,774 1,589 1,676
June-12 May-12
Average To-Date
FY 2011-12TRANSPONDER DISTRIBUTION
8
. . . . . . . . .
Operational Highlights
On-road Operations
Customer Assistance Specialists (CAS) responded to 100 calls during June. The CAS team
received 47 calls to assist disabled vehicles, 22 calls to remove debris and conducted 21 assists
or traffic breaks. The CAS provided assistance to 10 accidents in the Express Lanes.
9
. . . . . . . . .
Financial Highlights 4
91 Express Lanes
Operating Statement
Description Actual (1)Budget (1)Dollar $Percent (%)
Operating revenues:
Toll revenue 32,194,644.69 34,868,837.00$ (2,674,192.31)$ (7.7)
Fee revenue 7,088,318.68 6,944,322.00 143,996.68 2.1
Total operating revenues 39,282,963.37 41,813,159.00 (2,530,195.63) (6.1)
Operating expenses:
Contracted services 7,222,166.34 7,412,588.00 190,421.66 2.6
Administrative fee 1,705,202.64 2,303,625.00 598,422.36 26.0
Other professional services 633,560.83 1,666,587.00 1,033,026.17 62.0
Credit card processing fees 869,598.04 1,129,500.00 259,901.96 23.0
Toll road account servicing 447,812.65 1,055,750.00 607,937.35 57.6
Other insurance expense 307,803.22 750,000.00 442,196.78 59.0
Toll road maintenance supply repairs 240,003.91 310,000.00 69,996.09 22.6
Patrol services 401,736.50 400,000.00 (1,736.50) (0.4)
Building equipment repairs and maint 378,217.27 725,000.00 346,782.73 47.8
Other services 23,262.59 134,600.00 111,337.41 82.7
Advertising fees - - - N/A
Utilities 14,907.05 18,000.00 3,092.95 17.2
Office expense 35,479.37 155,750.00 120,270.63 77.2
Bad debt expense 9,243.47 - (9,243.47) N/A
Miscellaneous (2)178,472.81 273,627.00 95,154.19 34.8
Leases 360,884.22 415,000.00 54,115.78 13.0
Property taxes - - - N/A
Total operating expenses 12,828,350.91 16,750,027.00 3,921,676.09 23.4
Depreciation and amortization 5,994,396.58 - (5,994,396.58) N/A
Operating income (loss)20,460,215.88 25,063,132.00 (4,602,916.12) (18.4)
Nonoperating revenues (expenses):
Federal assistance grants - - - N/A
Interest income 456,152.59 1,654,849.00 (1,198,696.41) (72.4)
Interest expense (6,463,911.15) (6,612,723.00) 148,811.85 2.3
Other 93,270.10 - 93,270.10 N/A
Total nonoperating revenues (expenses)(5,914,488.46) (4,957,874.00) (956,614.46) (19.3)
Transfers in - - - N/A
Transfers out (101,715.79) - (101,715.79) N/A
Net income (loss)14,444,011.63$ 20,105,258.00$ (5,661,246.37)$ (28.2)
¹Actual amounts are accounted for on the accrual basis of accounting in an enterprise fund. Budget amounts are
accounted for on a modified accrual basis of accounting.
²Miscellaneous expenses include: Bond Insurance Costs, Bank Service Charge, Transponder Materials.
³Depreciation and amortization are not budgeted items.
4Actuals are preliminary pre-closing amounts for FY 2011-12. Final numbers will be shown in the audited financial statements.
YTD as of June 30, 2012 YTD Variance
Capital Asset Activity
During the twelve months ending June 30, 2012, capital asset activities included approximately
$285,965 for the purchase of transponders, $433,885 for the gantry relocation project and $6,727
for computer hardware.
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Staff Report
August 3, 2012
To: State Route 91 Advisory Committee
From: Anne Mayer, Executive Director
Riverside County Transportation Commission
Subject: Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Overview
As part of the Riverside County Transportation Commission’s proposed
extension of the 91 Express Lanes a toll policy for the Riverside County portion
of the facility and an investment grade traffic and revenue study were prepared
to support long-term toll revenue projections and a project financing in 2013.
The toll policy and traffic and revenue study were adopted by the RCTC
Western Riverside County Programs and Projects Committee May 21, 2012
and the full Commission at its June 7 th, 2012 meeting. This report presents the
adopted toll policy and traffic and revenue study.
Recommendation
Receive and file as an information item.
Discussion
10-Year Delivery Plan and Tolling
Due to the passage of the 2009 Measure A program, in December 2006 the
Commission adopted the 2009 Measure A Western County Highway 10 -Year
Delivery Plan (10-Year Delivery Plan). The 10-Year Delivery Plan calls for the
development of tolled express lane corridors within State Route 91 and
Interstate 15.
Development of the SR-91 Corridor Improvement Project
The State Route 91 Corridor Improvement Project will widen the SR-91 through
the city of Corona, extend the existing 91 Express Lanes from the Orange
County line to I-15, improve five local interchanges, reconstruct a portion of the
15/91 interchange, and other regular and express lane improvements within
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Page 2
the SR-91 corridor. Due to the high priority of delivering these improvements,
the SR-91 CIP is being fast-tracked by advancing several work phases
concurrently. These concurrent work phases include preliminary engineering,
environmental permitting, financing, right of way acquisition, utility and railroad
planning, interagency agreements, and design-build (contractor procurement
and planning for final design and construction).
Tolling Authority
In September 2008, SB 1316 (Correa) was signed into California law. SB 1316
was jointly sponsored by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA)
and the Commission and paved the way for each agency to advance its long -
term plan for tolled express lanes within the SR-91 corridor. For OCTA, SB
1316 extended its existing franchise agreement to operate the existing 91
Express Lanes through 2065. For the Commission, SB 1316 provided the
Commission with the state tolling authority needed by authorizing for 50 years
the charging of tolls for use of tolled express lanes within the SR-91 corridor
between the Orange/Riverside County line and I -15. SB 1316 also gave the
Commission the ability to sell toll revenue bonds, use of net toll revenue for
other transportation purposes within the SR-91 corridor, and franchise
agreement rights and responsibilities.
In August 2009, the Commission obtained the federal tolling authority needed
for the SR-91 tolled express lanes through the execution of a three-party
agreement between the Commission, Caltrans, and the Federal Highway
Administration.
Orange Riverside Cooperative Agreement
Executed in December 2011, the Orange Riverside Cooperative Agreement
(ORCA) details how the Commission will develop and the Commission and
OCTA will jointly operate and maintain an extended 91 Express Lanes system.
Providing the users of the 91 Express Lanes a seamless experience when the
express lanes get extended into Riverside County was an overarching theme in
the ORCA. The ORCA details how many elements of the 91 Expre ss Lanes
will be shared between the agencies including the current operator of the
lanes, marketing and customer service, customer account revenues,
operations and maintenance costs, the existing traffic operations center, and
the existing customer service center.
The ORCA also details certain key elements of the 91 Express Lanes for which
each agency would retain the ability to determine independent of the other.
The method to finance the project, current and future, will be determined
separately by each agency. Similarly, each agency has the right to collect and
retain tolls in their respective county. Lastly, each agency has the right to set
its own toll policy.
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Page 3
OCTA 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy
OCTA adopted its existing toll policy approximately ni ne years ago in 2003
around the time when OCTA purchased the 91 Express Lanes from the original
developer and operator. The existing policy has proven effective in meeting
OCTA’s stated goals of the 91 Express Lanes, which has long -served as the
first, national example of variable pricing of toll express lanes.
RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy
Policy Goals
The adopted goals for the RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy are as follows:
Provide a safe, and reliable, predictable commute for 91 Express Lan es
customers;
Optimize vehicle throughput at free flow speeds;
Pay debt service and maintain debt service coverage;
Increase average vehicle occupancy;
Balance capacity and demand to serve customers who pay tolls as well
as carpoolers with three or more persons who are offered discounted
tolls;
Generate sufficient revenue to sustain the financial viability of the
Commission’s 91 Express Lanes;
Ensure all covenants in the financing documents are met; and
Provide net revenues for Riverside Freeway/SR-91 corridor
improvements.
In the future there could be years of operation when, after all the costs of
operating, maintaining, and financing the lanes are paid, there remains net
revenue. Per Senate Bill 1316, net revenue, if any, shall be used to improve
the corridor by funding other improvements including lane additions,
interchange improvements, transit improvements, etc. resulting in a more
efficient transportation corridor. Allocation of future net revenue, if any, would
be through an action of the Commission.
The Commission’s 91 Express Lanes policy goals are virtually identical to
OCTA’s stated goals. OCTA and the Commission sharing the same toll policy
goals supports coordinated regional operation of the lanes and a seamless
customer experience.
Toll Rates and Discounts
The Commission’s 91 Express Lanes will use variable pricing – pricing that
changes based on the demand for the express lanes – operating under the
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Page 4
principle of supply and demand. Tolls to use the express lanes would vary
based on actual congestion levels in the corridor with higher tolls during
periods of higher corridor demand and lower tolls during periods of lower
corridor demand. The existing 91 Express Lanes operates under this same
approach and has seen toll rates rise and fall over longer periods due to the
general level of the economy, drivers’ perceived value of their time, their
willingness to pay for using the lanes, and other factors.
The RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy defines super peak periods – or
periods experiencing the highest level of traffic and congestion – and the
specific mechanism by which tolls will adjust during these periods. In general,
traffic volumes are monitored for a 12-week period, and consistent occurrences
of high or low peak hour traffic volumes are identified. Based on the actual
traffic volumes observed, toll rates are raised or lowered incrementally.
The goals for adjusting tolls in the super peak period are to: a) reduce the
likelihood of congestion by diverting traffic to other hours with available
capacity; b) maintain free flow travel speed in the Commission’s 91 Express
Lanes; c) maintain travel time savings; d) accommodate projected growth in
travel demand and; e) ensure that the Commission’s 91 Express Lanes
generate sufficient revenue to effectively operate the toll lanes and maintain a
strong debt service position.
Tolls for other periods outside of the super peak periods would also be based
on actual congestion levels. A common measure of congestion, level of
service, and the drivers’ perceived value of their time would be used to
establish tolls in non-super peak periods. The tolls in the non -super peak
periods would increase once certain traffic volume thresholds are exceeded.
Additionally, tolls in non-super peak periods would increase annually by an
inflation factor detailed in the RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy.
Carpoolers with three or more persons, zero emission vehicles, motorcycles,
disabled plates, and disabled veterans are permitted to ride free in the
Commission’s 91 Express Lanes during most hours. The exception is Monday
through Friday 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. in the eastbound direction when these
users pay 50 percent of the toll. These toll discounts are identical to those
used by the OCTA. It is the intent of the Commission’s toll policy to match the
discounts OCTA provides to maintain consistent business practices for 91
Express Lanes’ customers.
Financing Requirements
The adopted toll policy described herein and detailed further in the RCTC 91
Express Lanes Toll Policy document was used to estimate toll rates and toll
revenue for the duration of the 50 -year period of operation. The estimated,
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Page 5
annual toll revenue over the life of the Commission’s 91 Express Lanes is a
key output of the Traffic and Revenue Study.
The annual toll revenue generated serves as a critical input to the
Commission’s SR-91 CIP financial model. This annual toll revenue plus many
other factors are used to determine the amount of Measure A, toll revenue
bond, and federal loan funds required to finance the project and reach financial
close. The toll policy adopted has a direct effect on toll rates, toll revenue, and
the amounts of each of the three major fund sources required to finance the
project. The adopted toll policy fully supports the Commission’s project
financing requirements to both initially fund the project’s design and
construction as well as the 50-year operation period.
The adopted toll policy and the resulting toll rates are estimated to generate
enough toll revenue to pay the necessary debt service payments and maintain
the required debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs) in the financing documents.
It is recognized that maintaining a strong debt service position is a requirement
in order to satisfy the covenants in the financing documents and meet the
Commission’s fiduciary obligations. Therefore, the requirement to maintain
DSCRs and the related toll rates necessary to maintain DSCRs would
supersede the stated toll policy for setting and modifying tolls. This scenario
would only apply when the DSCRs, debt payments, and/or bond covenants
cannot be met and other reasonable means to meet these fiduciary
responsibilities have been exhausted. Staff would return to the Commission
under these extreme circumstances with a comprehensive report including the
status of the financings, toll revenues, possible courses of action,
recommendations, etc. Commission action would be sought and rece ived prior
to any change in the stated toll policy under these extreme circumstances.
Timing of Toll Policy Adoption
Staff sought adoption of the RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy in order to
support all future project financing activities as described previously. The
Commission’s proposed project funding sources are Measure A sales tax
dollars including sales tax revenue bonds, toll revenue bonds, and a federal
Transportation Investment Finance Innovation Act (TIFIA) loan. Adopting a toll
policy was needed in advance of the TIFIA loan application submission
planned for August 2012. An approved TIFIA loan plus the successful future
sale of Measure A and toll revenue bonds are each a prerequisite to reaching
financial close and having the full project fu nding available. Therefore,
adopting the toll policy prior to the TIFIA loan application submission helps
meet both the financing requirements and the financing schedule.
Exhibit V of the RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy attachment reflects toll
rates that result from the adopted toll policy in the year of planned opening
(2017) expressed in 2012 dollars. Staff proposes to return to the Commission
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Page 6
prior to the actual opening of the Commission’s 91 Express Lanes to provide
an update to the toll rates for reference. The update of toll rates would be
based on then-current corridor traffic conditions and the toll policy adopted in
2012.
Traffic and Revenue Study
An integral part of determining the financial feasibility of a tolling project is the
traffic and revenue study. The Commission, through its traffic and revenue
consultant, has conducted several of these studies for the SR -91 CIP since the
adoption of the 10-Year Delivery Plan to help guide the project development
work and to support project decisions. As the project develops from its
preliminary stages to more advanced definitions of scope, cost, and schedule,
the Traffic and Revenue Study is updated to reflect both current project data as
well as regional data that influence the traffic and revenue study results.
Typically the last traffic and revenue study update is performed during the final
stages of the project’s development and prepared to support a project
financing. The Traffic and Revenue Study is attached to this agenda report.
Staff sought Commission adoption of this study to support upcoming project
financing activities including submission of a TIFIA application, sale of Measure
A and toll revenue bonds, and financial close.
The Traffic and Revenue Study used the latest informa tion related to traffic
volumes, vehicle speed data, traveler origin-destination information, socio-
economic trends, and land use planning to forecast future regional traffic
growth. Additionally, a detailed micro-simulation traffic model was used to
analyze traffic operations in the corridor and to assist with toll revenue
forecasting. The study also analyzed different toll policies and the impact of
those toll policies to corridor traffic and toll revenue.
The toll rates and toll revenue estimates generated from the Traffic and
Revenue Study support the project’s financial model. The project’s financial
model can compare the impact of different toll policies to the available funding
and therefore the financial feasibility of the project. Through this effort the
Traffic and Revenue Study is a key tool to establish a toll policy.
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Page 7
Summary
The Riverside County Transportation Commission has adopted a toll policy and
an investment grade traffic and revenue study for the proposed extension of
the 91 Express Lanes into Riverside County to support long-term toll revenue
projections, a project financing in 2013, and establish the toll rates charged to
customers upon opening of the facility.
Attachments
A. RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy, dated May 9, 2012 (adopted June
7, 2012)
B. Riverside County 91 Express Lanes Extension Investment Grade Study,
dated May 9, 2012 (adopted June 7, 2012)
Prepared by:
Michael Blomquist
Toll Program Director
951.787.7141
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Attachment A
ATTACHMENT A
5/09/2012
RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy
Adopted June 7, 2012
Goals
The goals for the RCTC 91 Express Lanes toll policy are to:
Provide a safe, reliable, and predictable commute for 91 Express Lanes
customers;
Optimize vehicle throughput at free flow speeds;
Pay debt service and maintain debt service coverage ;
Increase average vehicle occupancy;
Balance capacity and demand to serve customers who pay tolls as well as
carpoolers with three or more persons who are offered discounted tolls;
Generate sufficient revenue to sustain the financial viability of the RCTC 91
Express Lanes;
Ensure all covenants in the Financing Documents are met; and
Provide net revenues for Riverside Freeway/State Route 91 corridor
improvements.1
Definitions
Exhibit I, “Definitions”, clarifies terms used in this RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll
Policy.
Super Peak Hours
The toll adjustment goals for Super Peak hours are to: a) reduce the likelihood of
congestion by diverting traffic to other hours with available capacity; b) maintain
free flow travel speed in the RCTC 91 Express Lanes; c) maintain travel time
savings; d) accommodate projected growth in travel demand and; e) ensure that
the toll road generates sufficient revenue to effectively operate the toll lanes and
maintain a strong debt service position.
1 As allowable under Senate Bill 1316.
05/09/2012 -2-
The toll for use of the RCTC 91 Express Lanes during a Super Peak hour shall be
determined as follows:
1. Hourly, day, and direction traffic volumes will be continually monitored on a
rolling 12 consecutive week period basis. The review period of 12 weeks
may be reduced to a shorter period during times of abnormal travel patterns
in the State Route 91 corridor. Such abnormal travel patterns shall include,
but are not limited to, initial opening of the RCTC 91 Express Lanes and
times of construction along State Route 91 or adjacent freeways or feeder
routes.
2. Hourly, day, and directional traffic volumes of 3,128 or more will be flagged
for further review.
3. If the hourly, day, and directional traffic volume is consistently at a level of
Super Peak then the toll rate for that hour, day and direction may be
increased.
4. The toll for that hour, day, and direction shall be increased, based on the
average vehicle volume of the flagged hour, day, and direction identified per
Section 2 above, as follows:
(a) if the average flagged vehicle volume is 3,300 or more then the toll
shall be increased by $1.00.
(b) if the average flagged vehicle volume is between 3,200 and 3,299
then the toll shall be increased by $0.75.
(c) if the average flagged vehicle volume is less than 3,200 then the toll
shall not be changed.
Six months after a toll increase, the most recent 12 consecutive weeks
(excluding weeks with a Holiday or a major traffic anomaly caused by an
accident or incident) shall be reviewed for the hour, day and direction that the
toll was increased. If the traffic volume is less than 2,800 vehicles per hour,
day, and direction in six or more of the weeks then the traffic volumes for that
hour, day and direction for the 12 consecutive weeks shall be averaged. If the
average traffic volume is less than 2,800 then the toll shall be reduced by $0.50
to stimulate demand and encourage RCTC 91 Express Lanes use.
RCTC’s Board of Commissioners and customers will be informed of a toll
adjustment 10 or more days prior to that toll adjustment becoming effective.
Non-Super Peak Hours
Non-Super Peak hours will generally remain at f ixed levels within a broad band
of Levels of Service, increasing annually by the Inflation Factor.
05/09/2012 -3-
Vehicle volumes increasing from one Level of Service (LOS) to the next, would
subject the toll rates to increase; the LOS for the Express Lanes are roughly
defined as follows:
LOS A 0 to 800 vehicles
LOS B 800 to 1600 vehicles
LOS C 1600 to 2400 vehicles
LOS D 2400 to 2800 vehicles
LOS E 2800 to 3100 vehicles
Toll rates will be adopted for each LOS reflecting the time savings value to the
driver as traffic moves into the next level of congestion.
All tolls shall be rounded up or down to the nearest 5 -cent increment.
Discount
Vehicles with three or more persons (HOV3+), zero emission vehicles (ZEVs),
motorcycles, disabled plates and disabled veterans are permitted to ride free in
the RCTC 91 Express Lanes during most hours. The exception is Monday
through Friday 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. in the eastbound direction when these
users pay 50 percent of the toll. The exception that these users pay 50 percent
remains in effect until such time as the Orange County Transportation
Authority’s (OCTA) adopted toll policy for the 91 Express Lanes results in
HOV3+ users using the OCTA 91 Express Lanes riding free all day, every day.
It is the intent of RCTC to adjust its toll policy to match the HOV3+ discounts
OCTA provides, subject to covenants in the Financing Documents and other
financing requirements.
Financing Requirements
RCTC shall charge and collect tolls that generate enough revenue to maintain
the Debt Service Coverage Ratios as required in the Financing Documents and
to operate and maintain the RCTC 91 Express Lanes in a safe condition in
accordance with all applicable laws and regulations. RCTC recognizes that it
must maintain a strong debt service position in order to satisfy the covenants in
the Financing Documents. The requirement to maintain Debt Service Coverage
Ratios and comply with Financing Document and other financing covenants will
supersede the specific policies for setting and modifying tolls and discounts.
Holiday Toll Schedules
Holiday toll schedules are identified on Exhibit V and shall be adjusted by the
Inflation Factor at the beginning of each Fiscal Year following the opening of
RCTC’s 91 Express Lanes.
05/09/2012 -4-
Interpretation
These policies are intended as guidance and may be amended or superseded
at any time.
05/09/2012 -5-
Exhibit I
Definitions
Cash Available for Debt Service – for any Period, the excess, if any, computed on
a cash basis, of:
(1) the amount of RCTC 91 Express Lanes cash receipts during such
Period from whatever source, including, without limitation, toll receipts,
transponder revenues, and investment earnings, excluding:
proceeds of insurance,
proceeds of debt service letter of credit or other amoun ts held in
or disbursed from the payment account, the debt service reserve
account, the coverage account and the major maintenance
reserve account, and
the proceeds of any bonds or loans issued or executed to provide
capital improvements to the RCTC 91 Express Lanes, over
(2) All Operating and Maintenance Costs incurred during such Period and
not deducted in the computation of Cash Available for Debt Service in a
prior Period. In computing Operating and Maintenance Costs for any
Period, an appropriate prorating will be made for expenditures such as
insurance premiums and taxes that would be prorated if the computation
were to be made in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles.
Consistently – Any six weeks of twelve consecutive weeks, excluding any week
that includes a Holiday or major traffic pattern anomaly caused by an accident or
incident.
Debt Service – for any Period, all payments of principal, interest, premiums (if
any), fees and other amounts made (including by way of prepayment) or required
to be made by RCTC during such Period under the Financing Documents (debt
service payments related to RCTC’s internal subordinated debt borrowings or
application of revenues to pay RCTC’s sales tax revenue bonds are to be
excluded from these calculations). In computing Debt Service for any Period prior
to the issuance of any additional financing, subject to the specific terms of the
Financing Documents, RCTC will give pro forma effect to the transactions
contemplated by the Financing Documents and the use of proceeds of the
additional financing. In computing Debt Service for any prospective Period, RCTC
will estimate in good faith such payments on the basis of reasonable assumptions.
Such assumptions will include the absence of any waivers of or amendments to
any agreements and the absence of any optional or extraordinary mandatory
redemption of existing financings.
05/09/2012 -6-
Debt Service Coverage Ratio – defined specifically in the Financing Documents,
which specific provisions control the implementation and setting of tolls and
discounts, but generally, for any Period, the ratio of Cash Available for Debt
Service for such Period to Debt Service for such Period.
Financing Documents – the documents under which RCTC has issued toll revenue
bonds or other financings, including financings with TIFIA, payable primarily from
toll revenues.
Fiscal Year – July 1 to June 30
Holiday – Any of the following holidays that occur or are recognized any day
between Monday through Friday: New Year’s Day, Memorial Day, 4 th of July,
Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Inflation Factor - the product of the hourly toll for the immediately preceding fiscal
year, times the CPI Index Adjuster for the prior fiscal year divided by the CPI Index
Adjuster for the year immediately preceding such fiscal year, but in no case less
than zero.
Maximum Optimal Capacity – 3,400 vehicles per hour, per day, per direction in the
RCTC 91 Express Lanes facility.
Non-Super Peak – Hourly period that is not Super Peak.
Operating and Maintenance Costs – defined specifically in the Financing
Documents, but generally, all reasonable and necessary expenses of
administering, managing, maintaining and operating the RCTC 91 Express Lanes
and in accordance with the operation and maintenance agreements.
Period – the most recent twelve complete months.
Super Peak – Hourly period, per day, and per direction with traffic volume use
which meets or exceeds the Trigger Point.
Trigger Point – 92 percent or more of Maximum Optimal Capacity (3,128+ vehicles
per hour, per day, and per direction).
Week – 12:00 a.m. Sunday to 11:59 p.m. the following Saturday.
Some of the financial definitions will be modified to reflect the bond covenants in
the bond financing documents.
ATTACHMENT A
05/09/2012 -7-
Exhibit II
Toll Policy Decision Process
Congestion Management Pricing in Super Peak
Description / Detail
Monitor adjusted hourly,
directional traffic for last 12
consecutive weeks (exclude
days/hours with holidays,
major incidents, accidents)
Flag individual adjusted hours
when traffic volume is 3,128
vehicles or less per hour, per day
per direction. Determine if this
occurs six or more times in the 12
week period
Average the traffic volume for
the hour, day and direction for
the 12 week period (exclude
holidays, accidents, major
incidents).
Monitor Traffic
Identify High
Hourly
Volumes
Average High
Volume Hours
Average
3,200 -
3,299
Average
3.300 or
more
Increase Hourly
Toll Rate $1.00
Increase Hourly
Toll Rate $0.75
Average less
than 3,200
Do Not Increase
Hourly Toll
Hold Adjusted Rate
Constant for 6 Months
Follow Adjusted Toll Rate
Follow On Process
NO
YES
YESYESYES
05/09/2012 -8-
Exhibit III
Adjusted Toll Rate Follow On Process
(Super Peak Adjusted Rates Only)
Description / Detail
Monitor adjusted hourly,
directional traffic for last 12
consecutive weeks (exclude
days/hours with holidays,
major incidents, accidents)
Flag individual adjusted hours
when traffic volume is 2,720
vehicles or less per hour, per day
per direction. Determine if this
occurs six or more times in the 12
week period
Average the traffic volume for
the hour, day and direction for
the 12 week period (exclude
holidays, accidents, major
incidents).
Adjusted Rates Frozen for 6
Months
Per Super Peak
Monitor Traffic in Adjusted
Super Peak Periods
Identify
Patterns of Low
Volumes for
Adjusted Rates
Average Hourly
Traffic Volume
Average
greater than
2,800
Average less
than or equal
to 2,800
Reduce Hourly
Toll Rate $0.50
Keep Price Same or
Determine if Super Peak
Pricing Applies
05/09/2012 -9-
Exhibit IV
Toll Policy Decision Process
Non Super Peak Periods
(*) The actual rates shown are the projected rates from the 91 Express Lanes Extension Investment Grade Study. Once the facility is
operational, traffic volumes will be monitored and rates adjusted accordingly. Rates shown represent projected scale of toll rates by volume
category (in 2012 $).
Description / Detail
Monitor adjusted hourly,
directional traffic for last 12
consecutive weeks (exclude
days/hours with holidays,
major incidents, accidents)
Flag individual adjusted hours
when traffic volume is 3,128
vehicles or less per hour, per day
per direction. Determine if this
occurs six or more times in the 12
week period
Average the traffic volume for
the hour, day and direction for
the 12 week period (exclude
holidays, accidents, major
incidents).
Monitor Traffic
Identify
Hourly
Volumes
Average
Volume Hours
Average
1,601 -
2,400
Average
801 -1,600
Set Toll Category B
$2.80 / $2.10
Set Toll Category C
$3.75 / $2.85
Average
2,401 -
2,800
Set Toll Category D
$4.70 / $3.60
If Rate Changed, Hold
Adjusted Rate Constant
for 6 Months
YESYESYES
Average
less than
800
Set Toll Category A
$1.55 / $1.20
Average
2.800 -
3,128
Set Toll Category E
$5.45 / $4.15
YESYES
05/09/2012 -10-
Exhibit V
RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Schedule
June 13, 2012
The charts below identify the toll schedule in effect as of opening year of RCTC’s
91 Express Lanes once a steady state condition emerges after the initial opening
ramp-up period. The assumed opening year is 2017 and the toll schedule rates
are in current year 2012 dollars. The toll schedule below is provided only to
illustrate the projected hourly toll rates that would result from implementing
RCTC’s toll policy. Prior to the first day of operation of RCTC’s 91 Express
Lanes, the toll schedule will be re-evaluated to reflect then-current corridor traffic
information and presented to RCTC’s Board of Comm issioners for reference.
In addition to the posted tolls, the RCTC 91 Express Lane toll policy allow
carpoolers with three or more persons (HOV3+), zero emission vehicles (ZEVs),
motorcycles, disabled plates and disabled veterans to ride free during most
hours. The exception is Monday through Friday 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. in the
eastbound direction when they pay 50 percent of the posted toll.
05/09/2012 -11-
Toll Schedule Eastbound Toll Schedule Westbound
Effective June 1, 2017 Riverside Co. Line to I-15 at Ontario Effective June 1, 2017 I-15 at Ontario to Riverside Co. Line
** Year 2012 $'s ** Year 2012 $'s
Sun M Tu W Th F Sat Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat
Midnight $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 Midnight $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
1:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 1:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
2:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 2:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
3:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 3:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
4:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 4:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
5:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 5:00 AM $1.55 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $4.70 $1.55
6:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 6:00 AM $1.55 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $5.45 $1.55
7:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 7:00 AM $1.55 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $5.45 $1.55
8:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 8:00 AM $1.55 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $1.55
9:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 9:00 AM $1.55 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $1.55
10:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 10:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
11:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 11:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
NOON $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 NOON $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
1:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80 $2.80 1:00 PM $2.80 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
2:00 PM $1.55 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $3.75 $2.80 2:00 PM $2.80 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
3:00 PM $1.55 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $4.70 $2.80 3:00 PM $2.80 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
4:00 PM $1.55 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $2.80 4:00 PM $2.80 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80 $2.80
5:00 PM $2.80 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $2.80 5:00 PM $2.80 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80 $2.80
6:00 PM $2.80 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $4.70 $5.45 $2.80 6:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80
7:00 PM $1.55 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $3.75 $4.70 $1.55 7:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
8:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $3.75 $1.55 8:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
9:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $2.80 $1.55 9:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
10:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 10:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
11:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 11:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55 $1.55
Toll Schedule Eastbound Toll Schedule Westbound
Effective June 1, 2017 Riverside Co. Line to McKinley Street Effective June 1, 2017 McKinley Street to Riverside Co. Line
** Year 2012 $'s ** Year 2012 $'s
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat
Midnight $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 Midnight $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
1:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 1:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
2:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 2:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
3:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 3:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
4:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 4:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
5:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 5:00 AM $1.20 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $3.60 $1.20
6:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 6:00 AM $1.20 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $4.15 $1.20
7:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 7:00 AM $1.20 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $4.15 $1.20
8:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 8:00 AM $1.20 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $1.20
9:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 9:00 AM $1.20 $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 $1.20
10:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 10:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
11:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 11:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
NOON $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 NOON $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
1:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10 $2.10 1:00 PM $2.10 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
2:00 PM $1.20 $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 $2.85 $2.10 2:00 PM $2.10 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
3:00 PM $1.20 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $3.60 $2.10 3:00 PM $2.10 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
4:00 PM $1.20 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $2.10 4:00 PM $2.10 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10 $2.10
5:00 PM $2.10 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $2.10 5:00 PM $2.10 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10 $2.10
6:00 PM $2.10 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $3.60 $4.15 $2.10 6:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10
7:00 PM $1.20 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $3.60 $1.20 7:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
8:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.85 $1.20 8:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
9:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $2.10 $1.20 9:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
10:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 10:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
11:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 11:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20
Riverside
91
Express
Riverside
91
Express
Riverside
91
Express
Riverside
91
Express
05/09/2012 -12-
Exhibit VI
RCTC 91 Express Lanes Holiday Schedule
(*) The intent of the holiday schedule is to offer tolls that reflect holiday traffic patterns. If Christmas, New Years or Fourth of July falls on a
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, the regular Friday toll schedule will be used the day before the holiday. If the day after
Christmas, New Years or Fourth of July is a Friday or Monday, it is assumed these are traditionally light traffic days, therefore, a reduced
rate applies (Friday after Thanksgiving rate will be used). If Christmas, New Years or Fourth of July fall on Saturday, it is assumed the
Friday before is a traditionally light traffic day; therefore the stated Christmas, New Years or Fourth of July holiday toll schedule applies. It is
also assumed that the Thursday before is a heavy traffic day, therefore, the regular Friday schedule applies. When reduced rates apply, the
weekend HOV3+ policy will be in effect.
Toll Schedule Eastbound Toll Schedule Westbound
Effective June 1, 2017 Effective June 1, 2017
Riverside Co. Line to I-15 at Ontario I-15 at Ontario to Riverside Co. Line
** Year 2012 $'s ** Year 2012 $'s
Weekday Weekend Time Weekday Weekend
Midnight $1.55 $1.55 Midnight $1.55 $1.55
1:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 1:00 AM $1.55 $1.55
2:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 2:00 AM $1.55 $1.55
3:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 3:00 AM $1.55 $1.55
4:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 4:00 AM $1.55 $1.55
5:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 5:00 AM $2.80 $1.55
6:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 6:00 AM $3.75 $1.55
7:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 7:00 AM $3.75 $1.55
8:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 8:00 AM $2.80 $1.55
9:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 9:00 AM $1.55 $1.55
10:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 10:00 AM $1.55 $2.80
11:00 AM $1.55 $1.55 11:00 AM $1.55 $2.80
NOON $1.55 $1.55 NOON $1.55 $2.80
1:00 PM $1.55 $2.80 1:00 PM $1.55 $2.80
2:00 PM $1.55 $2.80 2:00 PM $1.55 $2.80
3:00 PM $2.80 $2.80 3:00 PM $1.55 $2.80
4:00 PM $3.75 $2.80 4:00 PM $1.55 $2.80
5:00 PM $3.75 $2.80 5:00 PM $1.55 $2.80
6:00 PM $3.75 $2.80 6:00 PM $1.55 $2.80
7:00 PM $2.80 $1.55 7:00 PM $1.55 $1.55
8:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 8:00 PM $1.55 $1.55
9:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 9:00 PM $1.55 $1.55
10:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 10:00 PM $1.55 $1.55
11:00 PM $1.55 $1.55 11:00 PM $1.55 $1.55
Riverside Co. Line to McKinley Street McKinley Street to Riverside Co. Line
** Year 2012 $'s ** Year 2012 $'s
Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend
Midnight $1.20 $1.20 Midnight $1.20 $1.20
1:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 1:00 AM $1.20 $1.20
2:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 2:00 AM $1.20 $1.20
3:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 3:00 AM $1.20 $1.20
4:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 4:00 AM $1.20 $1.20
5:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 5:00 AM $2.10 $1.20
6:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 6:00 AM $2.85 $1.20
7:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 7:00 AM $2.85 $1.20
8:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 8:00 AM $2.10 $1.20
9:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 9:00 AM $1.20 $1.20
10:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 10:00 AM $1.20 $2.10
11:00 AM $1.20 $1.20 11:00 AM $1.20 $2.10
NOON $1.20 $1.20 NOON $1.20 $2.10
1:00 PM $1.20 $2.10 1:00 PM $1.20 $2.10
2:00 PM $1.20 $2.10 2:00 PM $1.20 $2.10
3:00 PM $2.10 $2.10 3:00 PM $1.20 $2.10
4:00 PM $2.85 $2.10 4:00 PM $1.20 $2.10
5:00 PM $2.85 $2.10 5:00 PM $1.20 $2.10
6:00 PM $2.85 $2.10 6:00 PM $1.20 $2.10
7:00 PM $2.10 $1.20 7:00 PM $1.20 $1.20
8:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 8:00 PM $1.20 $1.20
9:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 9:00 PM $1.20 $1.20
10:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 10:00 PM $1.20 $1.20
11:00 PM $1.20 $1.20 11:00 PM $1.20 $1.20
Riverside
91
Express
Riverside
91
Express
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
Attachment B
Riverside County 91 Express Lanes Extension
Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue Study
May 9, 2012
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
E.1
Executive Summary
Stantec Consulting Services Inc. (Stantec) was retained by the Riverside County Transportation
Commission (RCTC) to examine the financial feasibility of extending the existing 91 Express
Lanes in Orange County to the east approximately eight miles into Riverside County to the I -15
interchange. As part of this study, which is of investment grade quality and is suitable for bond
financing, the project team collected new traffic volume, speed data, and origin -destination
information in the SR 91 corridor. These data were used to re -calibrate and validate the
regional travel demand model (RivTAM) for the corridor. Updated socio -economic and land use
projections were completed and incorporated into the model to forecast future traffic growth
in the region. A detailed micro-simulation model was constructed to analyze the traffic
operational impacts of the project and to assist in revenue forecasting. Finally, several toll
policies were created and analyzed, with full traffic and revenue streams estimated for three
different policies.
Stantec had the overall lead for the Traffic and Revenue Investment Grade Study and was
responsible for project management and coordination, calibrating and validating the regional
travel demand model, constructing and calibrating a corridor micro-simulation model and
forecasting the future gross toll revenues to be derived from the Riverside County 91 Express
Lanes Extension. Two firms assisted Stantec in this work effort: PB Consult Inc. (“PB”) provided
the socioeconomic and land use review of employment and household projec tions used in the
traffic model and DKS Associates (“DKS”) oversaw the data collection process and helped to
summarize and analyze existing traffic volumes and speeds in the SR-91 study area.
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
SR-91 is the only major surface transportation facility connecting Orange and Riverside Counties
and is the primary daily commuting route between the counties. The rapidly growing
population, driving in part by the relatively affordable housing market in Riverside County,
computed with increasing employment opportunities in Orange County, has resulted in a large
number of Riverside County residents commuting to employment in Orange County. Based on
long-term regional population and employment projections, this commute pattern is expected
to continue and grow into the future. In addition, SR-91 is heavily used for goods movement
from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to destinations in inland Southern California as
well as other destinations across the United States.
SR-91 currently has four general purpose (GP) lanes in each direction, with those lanes varying
in width from 11 to 12 feet from the SR-241/SR-91 interchange in Orange County to the
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
May 9, 2012
E.2
SR-91/I-15 interchange in Riverside County. Currently, there are two tolled Express Lanes (XL)
in each direction on the SR-91 in Orange County that are heavily used by commuters, residents,
commercial businesses, and others traveling to and from Riverside and Orange counties. The
existing Express Lanes, operated by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA), begin
west of the SR-91/SR-55 interchange and terminate at the Riverside/Orange County line. This
Project extends the Express Lanes to the east approximately eight miles into Riverside County
to the I-15 interchange.
TOLL POLICY
There are several methods to approach the setting of tolls for the RCTC SR 91 Express Lan es
project. As part of this study, traffic and revenue streams were estimated for two different
tolling policies: 1) implementing the existing OCTA toll policy and 2) implementing an
“enhanced” toll policy that is based on the OCTA policy, but allows for the increase of off-peak
toll rates once certain volume thresholds are exceeded. The enhanced policy is similar to the
OCTA policy as it ties toll increases to traffic volumes, though it allows greater toll flexibility
during non-peak periods. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed for a “revenue
maximization” toll policy.
TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ESTIMATES
Utilizing the data and methodologies outlined throughout the following report, fifty year traffic
and revenue streams were estimated for both the OCTA and enhanced toll policies. The
detailed results are shown in ES-1 and ES-2 below.
Both toll policies have similar patterns for traffic growth, with global corridor traffic growing by
slightly more than 1 percent until 2035, when traffic growth slows to approximately 0.5 percent
per year. Express Lane transactions grow by approximately 3 percent per year for the OCTA toll
policy case versus approximately 2.6 percent in the enhanced case. This slight reduction in
transaction growth can be attributed to the higher toll rates charged under the enhanced toll
policy.
The largest difference is in revenue growth, where the OCTA toll policy grows just under 4
percent per year, the enhanced toll policy leads to revenue growth of 6 percent per year.
Again, this is attributable to higher toll rates during the shoulder and off -peak hours under the
enhanced toll policy. The average toll rate in 2035 under the OCTA toll policy is $2.42 versus
$3.59 for the enhanced toll policy.
A decrease in transactions and revenue occurs in 2035 with the completion of the “Ultimate”
project, which adds general purpose lane capacity to the corridor.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
May 9, 2012
E.3
Table ES-1
Traffic and Revenue Estimates, OCTA Toll Policy
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
May 9, 2012
E.4
Table ES-2
Traffic and Revenue Estimates, Enhanced Toll Policy
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
i
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY E.1
PROJECT DESCRIPTION ......................................................................................................... 1
TOLL POLICY ............................................................................................................................ 2
TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ESTIMATES .................................................................................... 2
1.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1.1
1.1 PURPOSE AND FOCUS OF THE STUDY ........................................................................ 1.1
1.2 THE CONSULTANT TEAM ............................................................................................... 1.2
1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE REPORT ......................................................................................... 1.2
2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND SETTING ....................................................................... 2.1
2.1 ROADWAY ALIGNMENT .................................................................................................. 2.1
2.2 EXISTING TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS ................................................................ 2.1
2.2.1 State Route 91 ................................................................................................... 2.2
2.2.2 Intersecting Routes ............................................................................................ 2.2
2.2.3 Supporting and Competing Routes ..................................................................... 2.4
3.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS .................................................................................................. 3.1
3.1 TRAFFIC VOLUMES ........................................................................................................ 3.1
3.1.1 Wavetronix Traffic Counts .................................................................................. 3.2
3.1.1.1 Westbound Weekday Traffic Volumes ................................................................ 3.3
3.1.1.2 Eastbound Weekday Traffic Volumes ................................................................. 3.4
3.1.1.3 Friday and Weekend Traffic Volumes ................................................................. 3.7
3.1.2 Major Intersecting Roadways Volumes ............................................................... 3.9
3.1.3 PEMS Traffic Counts ........................................................................................ 3.12
3.1.4 OCTA Transaction Data ................................................................................... 3.14
3.1.5 HOV Data ......................................................................................................... 3.17
3.1.6 Balanced Flow Network .................................................................................... 3.20
3.1.7 Origin Destination Survey ................................................................................. 3.22
3.2 VEHICLE SPEEDS ......................................................................................................... 3.24
3.2.1 Wavetronix Speed Data .................................................................................... 3.24
3.2.2 BluFax Speeds ................................................................................................. 3.29
3.2.3 PeMS Speeds .................................................................................................. 3.33
4.0 SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES AND LAND USE .......................................................... 4.1
4.1 SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................. 4.1
4.1.1 Study Area Employment Summary ..................................................................... 4.2
4.1.2 Study Area Household Summary ....................................................................... 4.4
4.2 FORECAST METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................... 4.5
4.3 HISTORICAL DATA AND TRENDS IN THE STUDY AREA ............................................ 4.11
4.3.1 Historical Study Area Employment Trends ....................................................... 4.11
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
ii
4.3.2 Historical Study Area Household Trends .......................................................... 4.17
4.4 BASE YEAR 2010 ESTIMATES ...................................................................................... 4.21
4.5 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS ........................................................................................ 4.23
4.5.1 Comparative Third Party Forecasts: Long-Term ............................................... 4.23
4.5.2 Comparative Forecasts: Short-Term................................................................. 4.25
4.5.3 Study Area Employment Forecast .................................................................... 4.27
4.6 HOUSEHOLD FORECAST ............................................................................................. 4.31
4.6.1 Study Area Comparative Forecasts .................................................................. 4.31
4.6.2 Study Area Housing Unit Forecasts .................................................................. 4.33
4.6.3 Study Area Median Household Income Forecasts ............................................ 4.35
4.7 KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE STUDY AREA .............................................................. 4.36
4.7.1 Inland Empire Projects ..................................................................................... 4.38
4.7.2 Orange County Projects ................................................................................... 4.40
5.0 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL ............................................................................................ 5-1
5.1 MODEL EVALUATION ..................................................................................................... 5-1
5.2 MODEL STRUCTURE AND PROCESS ............................................................................ 5.3
5.3 TOLL DIVERSION MODEL ............................................................................................... 5.4
5.4 MODEL INPUTS ............................................................................................................... 5.6
5.5 BASE MODEL YEAR INPUTS .......................................................................................... 5.6
5.6 FORECAST MODEL YEAR INPUTS, 2020....................................................................... 5.7
5.7 FORECAST MODEL YEAR INPUTS, 2035....................................................................... 5.7
5.8 MODEL TOLLS ................................................................................................................. 5.8
5.9 CALIBRATION & VALIDATION OF THE MODEL ............................................................. 5.9
5.10 DATA SOURCES .............................................................................................................. 5.9
5.11 CALIBRATION & VALIDATION PROCESS..................................................................... 5.10
6.0 MICRO-SIMULATION MODEL ......................................................................................... 6.1
6.1 OVERVIEW....................................................................................................................... 6.1
6.2 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 6.1
6.3 EXISTING CONDITIONS MODEL .................................................................................... 6.2
6.3.1 Network Assumptions ......................................................................................... 6.2
6.3.2 Volume Assumptions .......................................................................................... 6.4
6.3.3 Car Following Model Parameters ..................................................................... 6.15
6.3.4 Managed Lanes Coefficients and Tolls ............................................................. 6.15
6.3.5 Modeled Traffic Results vs. Actual.................................................................... 6.19
6.4 FUTURE YEAR MODEL ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS ............................................. 6.23
6.4.1 Network Assumptions and Scenarios ............................................................... 6.23
6.4.2 Volume Assumptions ........................................................................................ 6.26
6.4.3 Car Following Model Simulation Parameters .................................................... 6.28
6.4.4 Managed Lanes Coefficients and Tolls ............................................................. 6.28
6.4.5 Future Model Results, 2035 by 2020 Scenario ................................................. 6.29
6.4.6 Future Model Results, 2035 by 2035 Network .................................................. 6.41
7.0 MARKETSHARE ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 7.1
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
iii
7.1 OVERVIEW....................................................................................................................... 7.1
7.2 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 7.1
7.3 EXISTING EXPRESS TRAFFIC VS GLOBAL V/C ............................................................ 7.1
7.3.1 Eastbound Express Traffic vs. Global Traffic ...................................................... 7.6
7.3.2 Congested Period Demand Estimation and Global V/C ...................................... 7.9
7.3.3 Toll Curve Fitting .............................................................................................. 7.12
7.3.4 Toll Traffic and Revenue Forecast vs. Actual ................................................... 7.15
7.4 APPLICATION TO RIVERSIDE COUNTY EXPRESS LANES ........................................ 7.20
7.4.1 Lane Configuration Adjustment ........................................................................ 7.20
7.4.2 Toll Adjustment ................................................................................................ 7.21
8.0 TOLLED TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ESTIMATES ............................................................ 8.1
8.1 TOLL POLICY ................................................................................................................... 8.1
8.1.1 OCTA SR 91 TOLL POLICY .............................................................................. 8.1
8.1.2 ENHANCED SR 91 TOLL POLICY..................................................................... 8.5
8.2 TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ESTIMATES ........................................................................... 8.7
9.0 SENSITIVITY ANALYSES ................................................................................................ 9.1
9.1 REVENUE MAXIMIZATION .............................................................................................. 9.1
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
i
List of Figures
Figure 2-1 Map of Riverside County Express Lanes and Surrounding Area ................................ 2.1
Figure 2-2 Map of Intersecting and Supporting Roadways ......................................................... 2.4
Figure 3-1 Location of Wavetronix Count Stations ...................................................................... 3.1
Figure 3-2 Daily Traffic Volume Recorded at Wavetronix Count Stations .................................. 3.3
Figure 3-3 Profile of Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Westbound) ..................................... 3.6
Figure 3-4 Profile of Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Eastbound) ....................................... 3.6
Figure 3-5 Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, Between SR-241 and SR-71 ................... 3.7
Figure 3-6 Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of SR-71 .......................................... 3.8
Figure 3-7 Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, West of I-15 ........................................... 3.8
Figure 3-8 Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of I-15 ............................................. 3.9
Figure 3-9 Weekday Traffic Volumes on I-15, South and North of SR-91 ................................. 3.10
Figure 3-10 Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-71........................................................................ 3.11
Figure 3-11 Westbound Wavetronix and PeMS Data at Wavetronix Location 2 ...................... 3.12
Figure 3-12 Westbound Wavetronix and PeMS data at Wavetronix Location 3 ...................... 3.13
Figure 3-13 Eastbound Wavetronix and PeMS Data at Wavetronix Location 2 ........................ 3.13
Figure 3-14 Eastbound Wavetronix and PeMS Data at Wavetronix Location 3 ........................ 3.14
Figure 3-15 Westbound Weekday OCTA HOV and Toll Volumes and Wavetronix Total Volume
.................................................................................................................................................... 3.16
Figure 3-16 Eastbound Weekday OCTA HOV and Toll Volumes and Wavetronix Total Volume
.................................................................................................................................................... 3.16
Figure 3-17 Average Weekday Traffic East of SR-71 Broken into HOV and GP ......................... 3.18
Figure 3-18 Average Weekday Traffic West of I-15 Broken into HOV and GP .......................... 3.18
Figure 3-19 Average Weekday Traffic East of I-15 Broken into HOV and GP ............................ 3.18
Figure 3-20 HOV Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of SR-71 .............................. 3.19
Figure 3-21 HOV Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, West of I-15 ............................... 3.19
Figure 3-22 HOV Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of I-15 ................................. 3.19
Figure 3-23 Existing Balanced Network ..................................................................................... 3.21
Figure 3-24 Distribution of Traffic on SR-91 at SR-71 Interchange ........................................... 3.22
Figure 3-25 Distribution of Traffic on SR-91 at I-15 Interchange .............................................. 3.23
Figure 3-26 Distribution of Traffic Entering SR-91 ..................................................................... 3.23
Figure 3-27 Weekday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound) ....................... 3.25
Figure 3-28 Weekday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Eastbound) ........................ 3.25
Figure 3-29 Friday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound) ............................ 3.26
Figure 3-30 Friday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Eastbound) .............................. 3.26
Figure 3-31 Saturday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound) ........................ 3.27
Figure 3-32 Saturday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Eastbound) ......................... 3.27
Figure 3-33 Sunday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound) .......................... 3.28
Figure 3-34 Sunday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound) .......................... 3.28
Figure 3-35 Average Westbound Weekday Speeds at 7AM ...................................................... 3.30
Figure 3-36 Average Eastbound Weekday Speeds at 5PM ........................................................ 3.31
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
ii
Figure 3-37 Average Speeds Between West of SR-71 and East of I-15 ..................................... 3.33
Figure 4-1 Historical and Base Case Employment Frorecasts ...................................................... 4.2
Figure 4-2 Historical and Base Case Household Forecasts .......................................................... 4.4
Figure 4-3 Map of the Study Area ................................................................................................ 4.5
Figure 4-4 Map of SR-91 Corridor ................................................................................................ 4.6
Figure 4-5 Area of Focus for Socioeconomic Analysis ................................................................. 4.7
Figure 4-6 Illustration of the PB Land Use Forecast Model Methodology .................................. 4.9
Figure 4-7 Employment Growth by County, Change from 1990 Value ..................................... 4.13
Figure 4-8 Orange County Job Growth by Industry, 1990 – 2005 ............................................. 4.14
Figure 4-9 Riverside and San Bernardino County Job Growth by Industry, 1990 – 2005 ......... 4.15
Figure 4-10 Study Area Residential Building Permit Issuance, 2005 – 2010 ............................. 4.20
Figure 4-11 Compound Annual Growth Rate Comparison of Short Term Employment Forecasts
.................................................................................................................................................... 4.26
Figure 4-12 Comparison of Long-Term Household Growth Rates ............................................. 4.32
Figure 4-13 Map of Inland Empire Developments ..................................................................... 4.38
Figure 4-14 Map of Orange County Developments ................................................................... 4.41
Figure 5-1 Model Structure with Toll Diversion Assignment Model. .......................................... 5.5
Figure 5-2 Count Locations ........................................................................................................ 5.10
Figure 5-3 %RMSE Assignment Accuracy Guidelines ................................................................. 5.12
Figure 5-4 Enhanced RivTAM Model %RMSE Assignment Accuracy ......................................... 5.13
Figure 6-1 Existing Conditions Micro simulation Model Study Area ........................................... 6.2
Figure 6-2 Existing Conditions SR 241 to CL, EB GP Demand vs. Count ...................................... 6.5
Figure 6-3 Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, EB GP Demand vs. Count .......................... 6.5
Figure 6-4 Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, EB GP Demand vs. Count ............................ 6.6
Figure 6-5 Existing Conditions I-15 to McKinley Street, EB GP Demand vs. Count ..................... 6.6
Figure 6-6 Existing Conditions SR 241 to CL, EB Express Demand vs. Count ............................... 6.7
Figure 6-7 Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, EB HOV Demand vs. Count ....................... 6.7
Figure 6-8 Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, EB HOV Demand vs. Count ......................... 6.8
Figure 6-9 Existing Conditions I-15 to McKinley Street, EB HOV Demand vs. Count .................. 6.8
Figure 6-10 Existing Conditions SR 241 to CL, WB GP Demand vs. Count ................................... 6.9
Figure 6-11 Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, WB GP Demand vs. Count ..................... 6.10
Figure 6-12 Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, WB GP Demand vs. Count ...................... 6.10
Figure 6-13 Existing Conditions McKinley Street to I-15, WB GP Demand vs. Count ................ 6.11
Figure 6-14 Existing Conditions SR 241 to Green River Road, WB Express Demand vs. Count 6.11
Figure 6-15 Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, WB HOV Demand vs. Count .................. 6.12
Figure 6-16 Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, WB HOV Demand vs. Count ................... 6.12
Figure 6-17 Existing Conditions McKinley Street to I-15, WB HOV Demand vs. Count ............. 6.13
Figure 6-18 SR 91 Eastbound Toll Curves by Vehicle Class ........................................................ 6.17
Figure 6-19 SR 91 Westbound Toll Curves by Vehicle Class ...................................................... 6.18
Figure 6-20 SR 91 Eastbound General Purpose Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2-7 PM ..................... 6.20
Figure 6-21 SR 91 Eastbound Express and HOV Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2-7 PM .................... 6.20
Figure 6-22 SR 91 Eastbound Travel Speeds, Model vs. Actual, 2-7 PM ................................... 6.21
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
iii
Figure 6-23 SR 91 Westbound General Purpose Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2-7 PM ................... 6.22
Figure 6-24 SR 91 Westbound Express and HOV Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2-7 PM ................... 6.22
Figure 6-25 SR 91 Westbound Travel Speeds, Model vs. Actual, 2-7 PM .................................. 6.23
Figure 6-26 SR 91 Eastbound, RivTAM Model Global Traffic vs. Actual Balanced Demand, 3-7
PM .............................................................................................................................................. 6.27
Figure 6-27 2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Eastbound from Green River Road to I-15 ........ 6.29
Figure 6-28 2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Eastbound from Green River Road to Ontario
Avenue ....................................................................................................................................... 6.30
Figure 6-29 Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2020 Network ............................................... 6.33
Figure 6-30 2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Westbound from I-15 to Green River Road ...... 6.34
Figure 6-31 2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Westbound from Ontario Avenue to Green River
Road ........................................................................................................................................... 6.35
Figure 6-32 Westbound Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2020 Network ........................... 6.36
Figure 6-33 Express Lanes Toll Traffic, 2035 by 2020 Network ................................................. 6.37
Figure 6-34 Express Lanes Revenue, 2035 by 2020 Network .................................................... 6.37
Figure 6-35 Orange County Express Lanes Egress Area, 4:40 PM ............................................. 6.39
Figure 6-36 Serfas Club Drive, 4:40 PM ..................................................................................... 6.39
Figure 6-37 Lincoln Avenue, 4:40 PM ........................................................................................ 6.40
Figure 6-38 I-15 Interchange, 4:40 PM ...................................................................................... 6.40
Figure 6-39 McKinley Street Approach, 4:40 PM ...................................................................... 6.41
Figure 6-40 Eastbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network Scenario, Green River Road to I-15 ... 6.42
Figure 6-41 Eastbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network Scenario, Green River Road to Ontario
Avenue ....................................................................................................................................... 6.42
Figure 6-42 Eastbound Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2035 Network ............................. 6.45
Figure 6-43 Westbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, I-15 to Green River Road ................ 6.46
Figure 6-44 Westbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, Ontario Avenue to Green River Road
.................................................................................................................................................... 6.46
Figure 6-45 Westbound Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2035 Network ........................... 6.47
Figure 6-46 Express Lanes Toll Traffic, 2035 by 2035 Network ................................................. 6.48
Figure 6-47 Express Lanes Revenue, 2035 by 2035 Network .................................................... 6.48
Figure 6-48 Orange County SR 91 Mixing Area, 4:40 PM .......................................................... 6.50
Figure 6-49 Serfas Club Drive, 4:40 PM ..................................................................................... 6.50
Figure 6-50 Lincoln Avenue, 4:40 PM ........................................................................................ 6.51
Figure 6-51 I-15/SR 91 Interchange, 4:40 PM ............................................................................ 6.51
Figure 6-52 McKinley Street, 440 PM ........................................................................................ 6.52
Figure 7-1 SR 91 Express Lanes Weekday Traffic, Fiscal Year 2008 ............................................. 7.2
Figure 7-2 SR 91 Express Lanes Tolls, Average Monday to Thursday, July 2008 ......................... 7.3
Figure 7-3 SR 91 GP Lane Travel Time, SR 55 to County Line, July 2011 ..................................... 7.4
Figure 7-4 SR 91 GP & HOV Travel Time, County Line to McKinley Street, November 2010 ...... 7.5
Figure 7-5 Average Weekday General Purpose Volume per Lane .............................................. 7.6
Figure 7-6 Eastbound Express Traffic (Full Toll and HOV3+) vs. GP Lane Traffic ......................... 7.7
Figure 7-7 Eastbound Express Traffic (Full Toll and HOV3+) vs. GP Lane Speed ......................... 7.7
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
iv
Figure 7-8 Eastbound Full Toll Traffic vs. GP Lane Traffic ............................................................ 7.8
Figure 7-9 Eastbound HOV3+ Traffic vs. GP Lane Traffic ............................................................. 7.9
Figure 7-10 General Purpose Lane Demand Adjustment .......................................................... 7.10
Figure 7-11 Akcelik Speed and V/C Curve .................................................................................. 7.10
Figure 7-12 SR 91 Eastbound General Purpose Lane Capacity, Weekday, Friday, & Weekend 7.11
Figure 7-13 SR 91 Eastbound GP, Express, and Global V/C ....................................................... 7.12
Figure 7-14 SR 91 Eastbound Express Full Toll Traffic Market share vs. Global V/C Data Plot,
Weekdays ................................................................................................................................... 7.13
Figure 7-15 SR 91 Eastbound Express Weekday Toll Curves ..................................................... 7.14
Figure 7-16 SR 91 Eastbound Express Weekday, Friday, and Weekend Toll Curves ................. 7.15
Figure 7-17 SR 91 Express EB, Monday to Thursday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual
.................................................................................................................................................... 7.16
Figure 7-18 SR 91 Express EB, Monday to Thursday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual
.................................................................................................................................................... 7.17
Figure 7-19 SR 91 Express EB, Friday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual.................. 7.17
Figure 7-20 SR 91 Express EB, Friday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual ................ 7.18
Figure 7-21 SR 91 Express EB, Saturday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual ............. 7.18
Figure 7-22 SR 91 Express EB, Saturday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual ........... 7.19
Figure 7-23 SR 91 Express EB, Sunday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual ................ 7.19
Figure 7-24 SR 91 Express EB, Sunday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual .............. 7.20
Figure 7-25 SR 91 Express EB, Weekday Toll Curve, 4 GP/2XL vs. 5 GP/2 XL ............................ 7.21
Figure 8-1 SR 91 Express EB Tolls, 1997-1999 ............................................................................. 8.1
Figure 8-2 SR 91 Express WB Tolls, 1997-1999 ............................................................................ 8.2
Figure 8-3 SR 91 Express EB Tolls, 1997-2010 ............................................................................. 8.2
Figure 8-4 OCTA Toll Policy .......................................................................................................... 8.3
Figure 8-5 OCTA Toll Policy .......................................................................................................... 8.4
Figure 8-6 OCTA Toll Policy .......................................................................................................... 8.4
Figure 8-7 OCTA Toll Policy vs. Enhanced Toll Policy ................................................................... 8.6
Figure 9-1 Traffic’s Response to Toll Increases ............................................................................ 9.1
Figure 9-2 Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves .............................................................................. 9.2
Figure 9-3 Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves .............................................................................. 9.2
Figure 9-4 Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves .............................................................................. 9.3
Figure 9-5 Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves .............................................................................. 9.3
Figure 9-6 Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves .............................................................................. 9.4
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
v
List of Tables
Table 3-1 Average Traffic Volumes Recorded at Wavetronix Count Stations ............................. 3.2
Table 3-2 Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Westbound) ...................................................... 3.4
Table 3-3 Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Eastbound) ........................................................ 3.5
Table 3-4 Weekday Traffic Volumes on I-15 .............................................................................. 3.10
Table 3-5 Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-71 ........................................................................... 3.11
Table 3-6 Total Traffic, HOV Traffic, and Toll Lane Traffic ......................................................... 3.15
Table 3-7 Average Weekday HOV Volumes and Percent of Total Volume ............................... 3.17
Table 3-8 Average Weekday Speeds Recorded by BluFax (Westbound)................................... 3.30
Table 3-9 Average Weekday Speeds Recorded by BluFax (Eastbound) .................................... 3.31
Table 3-10 Average Friday Speeds Recorded by BluFax ............................................................ 3.32
Table 3-11 Average Saturday Speeds Recorded by BluFax ........................................................ 3.32
Table 3-12 Average Sunday Speeds Recorded by BluFax .......................................................... 3.32
Table 3-13 Eastbound Weekday Speeds Recorded by PeMS on SR-91 (5AM – 10PM) ............ 3.34
Table 3-14 Westbound Weekday Speeds Recorded by PeMS on SR-91 (5AM – 10PM) ........... 3.35
Table 4-1 PB Study Area Employment and Household Forecast (Thousands) ............................ 4.1
Table 4-2 Forecast Methodology for Population Variables ....................................................... 4.10
Table 4-3 Forecast Methodology for Household Variables ....................................................... 4.10
Table 4-4 Forecast Methodology for Scholl Enrolement ........................................................... 4.10
Table 4-5 Forecast Methodology for Household Income .......................................................... 4.11
Table 4-6 Forecast Methodology for Workers ........................................................................... 4.11
Table 4-7 Forecast Methodology for Employment Variables .................................................... 4.11
Table 4-8 Total Employment Growth by County, 1990 – 2010 ................................................. 4.12
Table 4-9 Orange County Employment by Industry .................................................................. 4.16
Table 4-10 Riverside and San Bernardino County Employment by Industry............................. 4.16
Table 4-11 Growth of Total Residential Building Permits in the Study Area ............................. 4.18
Table 4-12 Annual Building Permits Issued in the 6 County Area, 2005 – 2010 ....................... 4.21
Table 4-13 2010 Base Year Total Jobs: EDD/PB vs. SCAG/OCP (thousands) ............................. 4.22
Table 4-14 2010 Base Year Households EDD/PB vs. SCAG/OCP (thousands) ............................ 4.22
Table 4-15 Comparisons of Long-Term Employment Projections (thousands) ......................... 4.25
Table 4-16 PB Employment Forecast by County (thousands) ................................................... 4.28
Table 4-17 Employment by Major Category (in thousands) ...................................................... 4.30
Table 4-18 Comparison of Long Term Households Projections (thousands) ............................ 4.31
Table 4-19 Historical Study Area Median Home Prices ............................................................. 4.33
Table 4-20 PB Household Forecast by County (thousands) ....................................................... 4.34
Table 4-21 PB Median Household Income Forecast (Nominal Dollars)..................................... 4.36
Table 5-1 Model Evaluation Summary ......................................................................................... 5-2
Table 5-2 Toll Diversion Coefficients ........................................................................................... 5.6
Table 5-3 Relevant Network Improvements ................................................................................ 5.8
Table 5-4 Volume/Count Assignment Accuracy Criteria by Functional Classification .............. 5.12
Table 5-5 Enhanced RivTAM Model Volume/Count Assignment Accuracy by Facility Type ..... 5.13
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
vi
Table 5-6 Enhanced RivTAM Model Volume/Count Assignment Accuracy by Period .............. 5.13
Table 6-1 SR 91, Existing Conditions Model Number of Lanes .................................................... 6.3
Table 6-2 I-15, Existing Conditions Model Number of Lanes....................................................... 6.4
Table 6-3 Micro simulation Model Existing Volume Sources ...................................................... 6.4
Table 6-4 SR 91 Eastbound Global (GP & HOV) Traffic Count vs. Estimated Demand, 1-8 PM 6.13
Table 6-5 Count vs. Estimated Large Truck and Bus Percentages ............................................. 6.14
Table 6-6 Existing Conditions O/D Demand Table, 2-7 PM ....................................................... 6.14
Table 6-7 Car Following Model Parameters .............................................................................. 6.15
Table 6-8 SR 91 Eastbound Express Lane Tolls Modeled ........................................................... 6.17
Table 6-9 SR 91 Westbound Express Lane Tolls Modeled ......................................................... 6.18
Table 6-10 SR 91 Number of General Purpose Lanes ................................................................ 6.25
Table 6-11 I-15 Number of General Purpose and Express Lanes .............................................. 6.26
Table 6-12 2035 by 2020 Network O/D Matrix, 2-7 PM ............................................................ 6.28
Table 6-13 2035 by 2035 Network O/D Matrix, 2-7 PM ............................................................ 6.28
Table 6-14 EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2020 Network ............................................. 6.31
Table 6-15 (cont.) EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2020 Network ................................. 6.32
Table 6-16 Eastbound Express Lane VISSIM vs. Market Share Tolls, 2035 by 2020 Network 2 -7
PM .............................................................................................................................................. 6.34
Table 6-17 Express Lane Traffic and Revenue, 2035 by 2020 Network 2-7 PM ........................ 6.38
Table 6-18 EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, Ultimate ............................. 6.43
Table 6-19 (cont.) EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, Ultimate ................. 6.44
Table 6-20 Express Lane Traffic and Revenue, 2035 by 2035 Network 2-7 PM ........................ 6.49
Table 7-1 Eastbound Weekday Full Toll Traffic and Revenue, Model vs. Actual, 2008 to 2009 7.15
Table 8-1 2035 EB Toll Schedule, OCTA Toll Policy (2008 $s) ...................................................... 8.5
Table 8-2 2035 EB Toll Schedule, Enhanced Toll Policy (2008 $s) ............................................... 8.7
Table 8-3 Traffic and Revenue Estimates, OCTA Toll Policy ........................................................ 8.9
Table 8-4 Traffic and Revenue Estimates, Enhanced Toll Policy ............................................... 8.10
Table 9-1 Traffic and Revenue Estimates, Revenue Maximization Toll Policy ............................ 9.5
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
1.1
1.0 Introduction
1.1 PURPOSE AND FOCUS OF THE STUDY
SR-91 is the only major surface transportation facility connecting Orange and Riverside Counties
and is the primary daily commuting route between the counties. The rapidly growing
population, driven in part by the relatively affordable housing market in Riverside County,
coupled with increasing employment opportunities in Orange County, has resulted in a large
number of Riverside County residents commuting to employment in Orange County. Based on
long-term regional population and employment projections, this commute pattern is expected
to continue and grow into the future. In addition, SR-91 is heavily used for goods movement
from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to destinations in inland Southern California as
well as other destinations across the United States.
SR-91 currently has four general purpose (GP) lanes in each direction, with those lanes varying
in width from 11 to 12 feet from the SR-241/SR-91 interchange in Orange County to the
SR-91/I-15 interchange in Riverside County. Currently, there are two tolled Express Lanes (XL)
in each direction on the SR-91 in Orange County that are heavily used by commuters, residents,
commercial businesses, and others traveling to and from Riverside and Orange counties. The
existing Express Lanes, operated by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA), begin
west of the SR-91/SR-55 interchange and terminate at the Riverside/Orange County line. This
Project extends the Express Lanes to the east approximately eight miles into Riverside County
to the I-15 interchange.
SR-74 (Ortega Highway), an alternate route, is located approximately 20 miles south of SR -91
and carries about 12,000 vehicles per day (vpd). In stark contrast, SR -91 is currently used by
more than 280,000 vpd at the Orange/Riverside County line, and this volume continues to
grow. At the same time, SR-91 operates at stop-and-go conditions during the lengthy morning
(westbound) and evening (eastbound) peak travel periods in the corridor. Traffic is forecast to
increase by approximately 30 percent by 2035, further exacerbating the already long travel
times and congestion in the corridor between the counties.
As part of this project, the following tasks were undertaken:
Collecting existing traffic volumes and speed data along the SR-91, SR-71, and I-15;
Updating land use and socio-economic data for Riverside and surrounding counties;
Calibrating and validating the regional traffic model for the corridor under study;
Constructing a micro-simulation model to identify impacts to traffic operations;
Preparing traffic and revenue estimates for two toll policy alternatives;
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Introduction
May 9, 2012
1.2
1.2 THE CONSULTANT TEAM
Stantec Consulting Services Inc. ("Stantec") had the overall lead for the Traffic and Revenue
Investment Grade Study and was responsible for project management and coordination,
calibrating and validating the regional travel demand model, constructing and calibrating a
corridor micro-simulation model and forecasting the future gross toll revenues to be derived
from the Riverside County 91 Express Lanes Extension.
Two firms assisted Stantec in this work effort:
PB Consult Inc. (“PB”) provided the socioeconomic and land use review of employment
and household projections used in the traffic model.
DKS Associates (“DKS”) oversaw the data collection process and helped to summarize
and analyze existing traffic volumes and speeds in the SR-91 study area.
1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE REPORT
The following is a brief description of the contents of each chapter before the detailed
presentation of the technical material:
Chapter 2: Project Description and Setting - describes the SR-91 corridor in the context
of its regional settings.
Chapter 3: Existing Conditions – summarizes the data collected on the SR-91, SR-71, and
I-15 including both traffic volumes and speeds.
Chapter 4: SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use - describes the assessment of the
regional area’s economy and the small area forecast of future year occupied households
and employment.
Chapter 5: Travel Demand Model - explains the methodology used to forecast future toll
traffic and revenue for the SR-91 corridor based upon an adaptation of the RivTAM
traffic model and toll diversion equations.
Chapter 6: Micro-Simulation Model – details the calibration and construction of an
existing and future year micro-simulation model to analyze traffic operational impacts of
the project.
Chapter 7: Market Share Curves – presents the methodology behind using existing
revealed preference data on the OCTA 91 Express Lanes to forecast Express Lane usage
for the project.
Chapter 8: Traffic and Revenue Estimates: presents the methodology behind the toll
policies analyzed and the resulting traffic and revenue forecasts.
Chapter 9: Sensitivity Analyses
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
2.1
2.0 Project Description and Setting
2.1 ROADWAY ALIGNMENT
State Route 91 (SR-91) is an east-west limited access highway running from the I-405 in Los
Angeles, California at its western end to the interchange of I-215 and SR-60 in Riverside County,
CA on its eastern end. It connects to numerous other freeways in the Los Angeles area,
including I-5, SR-241, SR-71, and I-15. The roadway provides a connection over the Santa Ana
Mountains, and links the business centers of Los Angeles and Orange Counties to the residential
areas of Riverside County. Additionally, the roadway provides a route via I-15 to the resort area
of Las Vegas and other weekend destinations to the east . Figure 2-1 shows the SR-91 corridor
in a regional context and outlines both the existing and proposed 91 Express Lanes.
Figure 2-1
Map of Riverside County Express Lanes and Surrounding Area
2.2 EXISTING TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS
The transportation system in the SR-91 corridor consists mainly of freeways and signalized
arterial roadways. A limited mass transit network is available. This section describes SR-91, the
competing roadway network, intersecting routes, and the mass transit system.
Riverside County
Orange
County
Existing Express Lanes
Proposed
Express Lanes
SR-91
I-15
SR-55 SR-241
SR-91
SR-71
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Project Description and Setting
May 9, 2012
2.2
2.2.1 State Route 91
SR-91 is the only major surface transportation facility connecting Orange and Riverside Counties
and is the primary daily commuting route between the counties. The rapidly growing
population, driven in part by the relatively affordable housing market in Riverside County,
coupled with increasing employment opportunities in Orange County, has resulted in a large
number of Riverside County residents commuting to employment in Orange County. Based on
long-term regional population and employment projections, this commute pattern is expected
to continue and grow into the future. In addition, SR-91 is heavily used for goods movement
from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to destinations in inland Southern California as
well as other destinations across the United States.
SR-91 currently has four general purpose (GP) lanes in each direction, with those lanes varying
in width from 11 to 12 feet from the SR-241/SR-91 interchange in Orange County to the
SR-91/I-15 interchange in Riverside County. Currently, there are two tolled Express Lanes (XL)
in each direction on the SR-91 in Orange County that are heavily used by commuters, residents,
commercial businesses, and others traveling to and from Riverside and Orange counties. The
existing Express Lanes, operated by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA), begin
west of the SR-91/SR-55 interchange and terminate at the Riverside/Orange County line. This
Project extends the Express Lanes to the east approximately eight miles into Riverside County
to the I-15 interchange.
2.2.2 Intersecting Routes
State Route 91 is intersected at numerous locations in the study area. These intersecting
routes range from limited access freeways to local collector roadways. Access to the express
lanes will be provided only at its ends. Major intersecting roadways are described below and
shown in Figure 2-2:
1. Green River Road is a 4-lane roadway with a diamond interchange at SR-91. To the
northwest, Green River Road leads to a mostly residential and office de velopments. There is no
outlet to the northwest on Green River Road. To the southeast, Green River Road turns
eastward, and leads past commercial development towards residential areas and the City of
Corona.
2. State Route 71 is a major limited access highway which leads northward from SR-91. A
trumpet interchange provides the connection with SR-91. SR-71 leads to the northwest
terminating in approximately 16 miles at I-10. Traffic may use SR-71 between the SR-91
corridor and the areas of Burbank and Pasadena, CA.
3. Serfas Club Drive is a 4-lane roadway with a center turning lane. A diamond interchange is
provided at SR-91. To the north, Serfas Club Drive becomes Auto Center Drive, and the area is
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Project Description and Setting
May 9, 2012
2.3
characterized by heavy commercial and office development. To the south, the roadway leads
to mainly residential areas.
4. Maple Street is a 4-lane roadway with a center turn lane. To the north it leads to an area of
mostly office and industrial uses, and to the south, it becomes 6th Street and leads to residential
and commercial areas of Corona. A combination of a partial cloverleaf diamond interchanges
are provided at Maple Street.
5. Lincoln Avenue is a 4-lane roadway with a center turning lane. A partial cloverleaf
interchange is provided at SR-91. To the north, Lincoln Avenue leads to an area of mostly office
development. South of SR-91 are commercial and residential areas.
6. Grand Boulevard is a 4-lane roadway with a center turning lane. Ramps are provided to and
from the west on SR-91. Grand Boulevard is a circular roadway, following a 2,300 foot radius
around the central business district of Corona. In the future, this interchange will be
eliminated, and access to SR-91 will be provided at the Lincoln Avenue and North main Street
interchanges.
7. North Main Street is a 4 to 6 lane roadway with center medians and turn lanes. To the
south, the roadway leads through the central business district of Corona. To the north of the
highway, North Main Street is generally lined with strip retail development.
8. Interstate Route 15 is a major north-south interstate highway running from southern
California to northern Montana. The highway is 4 lanes in each direction. A large interchange
is provided between SR-91 and I-15, with direct freeway to freeway ramps for most of the
movements and a loop ramp for the southbound to westbound movement. Connections are
proposed between the express lanes I-15. To the north, I 15 passes the city of Norco and
travels across San Bernardino County, CA and into Nevada, towards Las Vegas. To the south, I-
15 provides a route to residential areas southeast of Corona, CA. The traffic on I -15 in the
vicinity of this interchange is described in 3.1.2.
9. McKinley Street is a 4-lane divided roadway with a partial cloverleaf interchange at SR-91.
The area surrounding the interchange is mainly commercial, and the roadway goes to
residential areas to the north and the south.
10. Pierce Street is a 4-lane roadway with a median and center turning lanes. Access is only
provided to and from the west on SR-91. The area near the interchange is mostly commercial,
with residential areas beyond that.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Project Description and Setting
May 9, 2012
2.4
Figure 2-2
Map of Intersecting and Supporting Roadways
2.2.3 Supporting and Competing Routes
Due to the topography in the area of the project, there is no major competing route in the
project corridor. The nearest route through the Santa Ana Mountains between Riverside
County and Orange County at the western end of the study area is Carbon Canyon Road (SR-
142), approximately 8 miles to the north. I-10 and SR-60 also provide east-west routes parallel
to SR-91, however, they are over 10 miles north of the highway.
The eastern portion of the highway corridor runs parallel to surface highways which may
provide an alternate route. However, the geometry of these road ways and the development
along them precludes them from handling a significant amount of the traffic using SR-91. Along
the southern side of SR-91, Green River Road and Ontario Avenue provide access to the
residential areas south of Corona, CA.
Also parallel to SR-91 is 6th Street, which runs through the city of Corona. Traffic signals and
development along the route lowers the viability of this road as an alternative route.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
3.1
3.0 Existing Conditions
3.1 TRAFFIC VOLUMES
Traffic volumes in the SR-91 corridor were determined from three main sources. First,
Wavetronix radar counts were collected at 7 locations along the corridor. Wavetronix radar
counts provide vehicle volumes and average speeds for each lane of the highway in 15 -minute
increments. It was decided that radar counts should be collected instead of using standard
automatic traffic recorders (ATRs) since radar counts tend to gather more accurate traffic data
during periods of intense traffic congestion, a major concern in th is corridor, particularly during
the peak time periods. In addition, radar counts provide both traffic volumes and speeds.
Given that a correlation exists between a decrease in corridor speed and an increase in express
lane volume, having accurate speed data is extremely beneficial. The radar counts were
conducted between November 2, 2010 and November 18, 2010. The Wavetronix count
locations are shown in Figure 3-1.
Figure 3-1
Location of Wavetronix Count Stations
Second, traffic count data were downloaded from the Caltrans Freeway Performance
Measurement System (PeMS). PeMS is a database tool designed by the University of California
at Berkeley that collects traffic data, including flows, speeds, and hours of congestion on
California freeways.
Third, traffic volume data were provided by Orange County Transportation Authorit y (OCTA) for
the toll lanes along SR-91 in Orange County. These data provided the toll and the HOV-3+
volume in hourly increments for both directions of the highway.
5
4
3
2
7
6
1
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.2
3.1.1 Wavetronix Traffic Counts
Radar traffic counts were conducted from November 2-18, 2010. At each location, one week of
data was recorded. The Wavetronix counts showed the average 7-day traffic volume to be
approximately 130,100 vehicles per day in each direction at the western end of the study area,
between SR-241 and SR-71. Moving eastward, between SR-71 and I-15, westbound traffic was
recorded to be approximately 122,000 vehicles per day while eastbound traffic was heavier. At
the Wavetronix station just east of SR-71, an average of 127,000 vehicles per day were
recorded eastbound during the 7-day count. At the count station further east, just to the west
of I-15, 142,000 vehicles per day were recorded driving eastbound. East of I -15, the traffic
counts recorded an average of 104,000 vehicles per day eastbound and 107,000 vehicles per
day westbound.
Over the course of the week, the traffic volumes were heaviest on Friday and lightest on
Sunday. The Tuesday to Thursday volumes were fairly consistent, and Monday had the light est
traffic volume on a weekday. Overall, the traffic volumes on Saturday were recorded to be
higher than an average weekday, but lower than the Friday volume. A directional split can also
be seen in the daily traffic volumes. The eastbound volumes are highest on Friday, and the
westbound volumes on Sunday do not show as large a drop as is seen on the eastbound side of
the roadway. Table 3-1 summarizes the daily traffic volumes recorded at each count location,
and shows the daily traffic volumes as a percentage of the average 7-day volume recorded at
each location (also see Figure 3-2)
Table 3-1
Average Traffic Volumes Recorded at Wavetronix Count Stations
Start End Start End Start End Start End
11/02 11/08 11/02 11/08 11/12 11/18 11/02 11/08
7-Day Average Daily Volume 130,196 127,050 142,479 103,646
Sunday 108,598 83.4%113,683 89.5%122,689 86.1%89,723 86.6%
Monday 124,867 95.9%120,336 94.7%140,168 98.4%100,852 97.3%
Tuesday 130,679 100.4%123,515 97.2%142,997 100.4%97,117 93.7%
Wednesday 133,097 102.2%127,391 100.3%145,431 102.1%106,232 102.5%
Thursday 135,786 104.3%126,982 99.9%141,982 99.7%110,465 106.6%
Friday 142,226 109.2%140,206 110.4%155,969 109.5%112,164 108.2%
Saturday 136,122 104.6%137,237 108.0%148,114 104.0%108,969 105.1%
Start End Start End Start End Start End
11/12 11/18 11/02 11/08 11/02 11/08 11/02 11/08
7-Day Average Daily Volume 130,145 121,435 122,035 106,827
Sunday 117,182 90.0%115,697 95.3%122,950 100.7%97,881 91.6%
Monday 130,141 100.0%116,040 95.6%113,551 93.0%101,611 95.1%
Tuesday 129,467 99.5%119,901 98.7%117,541 96.3%108,857 101.9%
Wednesday 132,434 101.8%120,240 99.0%115,029 94.3%106,283 99.5%
Thursday 134,772 103.6%122,984 101.3%121,470 99.5%108,876 101.9%
Friday 138,121 106.1%129,044 106.3%130,202 106.7%112,876 105.7%
Saturday 128,899 99.0%126,139 103.9%133,504 109.4%111,408 104.3%
4. East of I-15
W
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Ea
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1. Between SR-
241 and SR-71 2. East of SR-71 3. West of I-15
Start and End Dates of Count
Start and End Dates of Count
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.3
Figure 3-2
Daily Traffic Volume Recorded at Wavetronix Count Stations
as a Percentage of Average 7-Day Traffic Volume Recorded
The Wavetronix traffic counts gave traffic volumes in 15 -minute increments, allowing the
distribution of traffic across the day to be analyzed. On Tuesday – Thursday, the traffic follows
a directional pattern, with heavy westbound volumes in the morning and heavy eastbound
volumes in the afternoon.
3.1.1.1 Westbound Weekday Traffic Volumes
Westbound, the morning peak is most clearly defined on the western end of the study area,
where traffic passes into Orange County. In the morning, traffic volumes build from east to
west, reaching their highest values at the Wavetronix count station between SR-241 and SR-71.
During the heaviest hour (7AM-8AM), approximately 7.8 percent of the daily weekday traffic
passed by that station. At the western end of the study area, the heaviest westbound traffic is
concentrated between 5AM and 9AM, with over a quarter of the dai ly traffic passes during
those four hours. Upstream, at the Wavetronix station just to the west of I-15, traffic volumes
rise in the 4AM and 5AM hours and then drop by over 35 percent in the 6AM hour. This
corresponds to a severe drop in speeds, as described in Section 3.2.1. This congestion may
have constrained the traffic volume at this location. At the eastern end of the study area, east
of I-15, traffic was more uniform throughout the day, and the morning peak period was not
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
Sunday Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
7
-Da
y
T
r
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Eastbound Westbound
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.4
heavier than the traffic during the remainder of the day. A westbound morning peak can still
be inferred at the eastern end due to the early hour at which traffic volumes begin to rise from
the overnight low. For example, 5.8% of the daily traffic passed by this station during the 5AM
to 6AM hour in the westbound direction, far higher than the 2.0% that passed by in the
eastbound direction in the same hour (See Table 3-2 and Figure 3-3).
A westbound afternoon peak was recorded at both ends of the study area. This peak remains
well below the morning peak at the two western Wavetronix count locations. At the two
eastern locations, it does surpass the morning peak, however the vehicle speeds described in
Section 3.2.1 confirm that the most severe congestion occurs during the morning.
3.1.1.2 Eastbound Weekday Traffic Volumes
In the eastbound direction there is a small morning peak and a heavy afternoon peak. The
heaviest eastbound traffic occurs during the 3PM to 7PM hours (see Table 3-3 and Figure 3-4).
Between SR-241 and SR-71, eastbound traffic volumes peak in the 6PM hour, and 7.4 percent
of the daily traffic passed the Wavetronix count station in that hour. Moving east along the
corridor, the afternoon peak occurs earlier in the day. The highest hour at the location just east
of SR-71 is 5PM – 6PM, and the highest hour just to the west of I-15 is 3P – 4PM.
Table 3-2
Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Westbound)
1. Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. East of SR-71 3. West of I-15 4. East of I-15
11/15, 11/17, 11/18 11/2, 11/3,
11/4, and 11/8
11/2, 11/3,
11/4, and 11/8
11/2, 11/3,
11/4, and 11/8
Hour
Start End
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 1,295 1.0%1,017 0.8%1,191 1.0%906 0.8%
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 949 0.7%1,065 0.9%946 0.8%687 0.6%
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 1,128 0.9%1,129 0.9%1,019 0.9%695 0.6%
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 1,978 1.5%2,571 2.1%1,902 1.6%1,380 1.3%
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 5,762 4.4%5,777 4.8%5,915 5.1%4,335 4.0%
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 9,328 7.0%8,533 7.1%6,322 5.4%6,258 5.8%
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 9,892 7.5%7,275 6.1%4,076 3.5%4,756 4.4%
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 10,375 7.8%7,640 6.4%4,249 3.6%5,026 4.7%
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 9,469 7.1%7,811 6.5%5,023 4.3%5,524 5.2%
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 8,400 6.3%7,215 6.0%6,098 5.2%5,658 5.3%
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 7,193 5.4%6,852 5.7%7,005 6.0%5,604 5.2%
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 6,536 4.9%6,326 5.3%6,966 6.0%5,937 5.5%
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 6,195 4.7%5,892 4.9%6,891 5.9%6,035 5.6%
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 6,285 4.7%5,997 5.0%6,873 5.9%5,899 5.5%
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 6,306 4.8%6,359 5.3%7,157 6.1%6,500 6.1%
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 6,554 4.9%6,659 5.6%7,390 6.3%6,642 6.2%
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 7,173 5.4%6,899 5.8%7,405 6.3%6,539 6.1%
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 7,174 5.4%6,495 5.4%7,201 6.2%6,722 6.3%
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 5,870 4.4%5,313 4.4%6,508 5.6%6,203 5.8%
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 4,147 3.1%3,896 3.3%4,891 4.2%4,745 4.4%
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 3,259 2.5%3,098 2.6%3,873 3.3%3,761 3.5%
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 3,050 2.3%2,757 2.3%3,593 3.1%3,425 3.2%
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 2,413 1.8%2,059 1.7%2,660 2.3%2,408 2.2%
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,718 1.3%1,162 1.0%1,748 1.5%1,537 1.4%
12:00 AM 11:59 PM 132,449 100.00%119,791 100.00%116,898 100.00%107,178 100.00%
Westbound
Dates
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.5
Table 3-3
Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Eastbound)
1. Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. East of SR-71 3. West of I-15 4. East of I-15
11/2, 11/3,
11/4, and 11/8
11/2, 11/3,
11/4, and 11/8 11/15, 11/16, 11/17 11/3, 11/4, 11/8
Hour
Start End
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 1,708 1.3%1,400 1.1%1,798 1.3%1,334 1.3%
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 1,093 0.8%1,001 0.8%1,161 0.8%824 0.8%
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 932 0.7%944 0.8%1,009 0.7%679 0.6%
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 933 0.7%1,092 0.9%1,161 0.8%697 0.7%
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 1,310 1.0%2,153 1.7%1,830 1.3%1,017 1.0%
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 2,829 2.2%3,880 3.1%3,893 2.7%2,170 2.0%
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 5,065 3.9%5,319 4.3%6,259 4.4%4,361 4.1%
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 6,524 5.0%6,183 5.0%7,571 5.3%6,108 5.8%
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 6,659 5.1%6,523 5.2%7,458 5.2%5,368 5.1%
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 5,952 4.5%5,857 4.7%7,440 5.2%5,112 4.8%
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 5,509 4.2%5,750 4.6%7,204 5.0%5,206 4.9%
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 5,671 4.3%5,877 4.7%7,342 5.1%5,412 5.1%
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 6,152 4.7%6,659 5.3%7,783 5.4%5,806 5.5%
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 6,980 5.3%7,373 5.9%8,370 5.9%6,172 5.8%
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 8,322 6.3%7,512 6.0%9,084 6.4%6,830 6.5%
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 8,897 6.8%8,058 6.5%9,300 6.5%7,121 6.7%
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 9,351 7.1%8,101 6.5%8,895 6.2%6,988 6.6%
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 9,332 7.1%8,322 6.7%8,762 6.1%7,020 6.6%
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 9,720 7.4%8,315 6.7%8,662 6.1%7,021 6.6%
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 8,945 6.8%7,811 6.3%8,540 6.0%6,134 5.8%
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 6,608 5.0%5,646 4.5%6,505 4.6%4,906 4.6%
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 5,493 4.2%5,034 4.0%5,612 3.9%4,182 4.0%
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 4,381 3.3%3,555 2.9%4,237 3.0%3,288 3.1%
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 2,745 2.1%2,192 1.8%2,989 2.1%2,095 2.0%
12:00 AM 11:59 PM 131,107 100.00%124,556 100.00%142,865 100.00%105,850 100.00%
Dates
Eastbound
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.6
Figure 3-3
Profile of Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Westbound)
Figure 3-4
Profile of Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-91 (Eastbound)
1. SR-91 Westbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Westbound East of SR-71
3. SR-91 Westbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Westbound East of I-15
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
1. SR-91 Eastbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Eastbound East of SR-71 1. SR-91 Westbound Between SR-241 and SR-71
3. SR-91 Eastbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Eastbound East of I-15 3. SR-91 Westbound West of I-15
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.7
3.1.1.3 Friday and Weekend Traffic Volumes
On Friday, the overall traffic volume on SR-91 is higher than on the average weekday. In the
eastbound direction, traffic volumes are higher in the midday time pe riod, approximately from
9AM to 2PM, and in the late evening, after 7PM. While the overall daily volumes on Friday are
higher than during a typical weekday, the maximum hourly volumes recorded on Friday are
similar to the volumes recorded on typical weekdays. In the westbound direction, traffic
volumes are similar in the morning period, but become higher for the remainder of the day.
Saturday volumes recorded on SR-91 are heavier than the volumes recorded during the week,
but the traffic is more evenly distributed throughout the day. As is typical for weekend traffic,
the profile of traffic on Saturday does not show a large morning peak like found during the
workweek. In the westbound direction, the peak Saturday volumes on the western end of the
highway corridor remain well below the highest volumes recorded westbound during the
morning peak period. In the eastbound direction, the maximum hourly volumes recorded on
Saturday are similar to the maximum volumes recorded during the week.
Sunday volumes on SR-91 follow a similar profile as Saturday volumes, with the daily totals
being approximately 18 percent lower in the eastbound direction and 9 percent lower in the
westbound direction. At the four count locations on SR -91, Sunday traffic volumes were
generally much lower than Saturday volumes prior to 10 AM. For the remainder of the day,
eastbound volumes remained approximately 10 – 20 percent lower on Sunday than on
Saturday. Westbound volumes however reached similar levels on Sunday afternoons as they
reached on Saturday afternoons. Figure 3-5 through Figure 3-8 show the traffic volumes at the
four Wavetronix count locations by day of week.
Figure 3-5
Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, Between SR-241 and SR-71
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
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V
o
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Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.8
Figure 3-6
Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of SR-71
Figure 3-7
Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, West of I-15
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
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u
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e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.9
Figure 3-8
Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of I-15
3.1.2 Major Intersecting Roadways Volumes
Two major roadways intersect with SR-91 in the study area, I-15 and SR-71.
Traffic on I-15 follows a similar daily profile to traffic on SR-91, especially to the south of SR-91.
Northbound traffic on I-15 shows a similar pattern as westbound traffic on SR-91, and
southbound traffic on I-15 shares a daily pattern with eastbound t raffic. In the northbound
direction on I-15, the typical weekday traffic is heavier south of SR-91, and overall vehicles exit
I-15 and join SR-91. The only time period when I-15 northbound gains traffic from SR-91 is
during the morning peak period from 5AM to 8AM. For the remainder of the day, and
especially in the afternoon peak period, northbound traffic becomes lighter as the highway
crosses SR-91. On I-15 southbound, traffic peaks in the afternoon, with SR-91 adding traffic to
the highway. In the heaviest hour of the afternoon, 4PM to 5PM, approximately 5,900
southbound vehicles were recorded north of SR-91 and approximately 6,900 were recorded
south of SR-91. This pattern is fairly consistent throughout the day, and most prominent
between 6PM and 10PM, when each hour, over 1,000 additional vehicles were recorded south
of SR-91 than north of SR-91. Weekday traffic on I-15 is summarized in Table 3-4 and Figure
3-9.
On Friday, traffic is heavier on I-15 than during the week, with the majority of the additional
traffic during the midday and evening periods. On Saturday and Sunday, traffic is much lower
on I-15 to the north of SR-91, while to the south of SR-91, Saturday records a traffic volume
higher than was recorded during the week.
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
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V
o
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u
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e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.10
Table 3-4
Weekday Traffic Volumes on I-15
Figure 3-9
Weekday Traffic Volumes on I-15, South and North of SR-91
South of SR-91 North of SR-91 South of SR-91 North of SR-91
11/15, 11/16, 11/17, 11/18 11/15, 11/16, 11/17, 11/18 11/15, 11/16, 11/17, 11/18 11/15, 11/16, 11/17, 11/18
Hour
Start End
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 988 1.0%774 1.0%922 1.0%695 0.8%
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 629 0.6%500 0.6%675 0.7%502 0.6%
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 549 0.6%488 0.6%660 0.7%462 0.6%
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 777 0.8%743 0.9%1,034 1.1%609 0.7%
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 1,508 1.5%1,746 2.2%2,978 3.1%1,441 1.7%
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 2,774 2.8%3,159 3.9%4,175 4.4%4,232 5.1%
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 3,953 4.1%3,243 4.0%4,753 5.0%5,540 6.6%
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 5,312 5.4%4,424 5.5%6,040 6.3%6,261 7.5%
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 5,258 5.4%4,507 5.6%5,540 5.8%5,247 6.3%
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 4,808 4.9%4,196 5.2%5,128 5.4%4,885 5.8%
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 4,783 4.9%4,046 5.1%5,102 5.3%4,664 5.6%
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 5,033 5.2%3,994 5.0%5,210 5.4%4,657 5.6%
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 5,308 5.4%4,479 5.6%5,428 5.7%4,488 5.4%
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 5,616 5.8%4,623 5.8%5,376 5.6%4,536 5.4%
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 6,367 6.5%5,304 6.6%5,846 6.1%4,803 5.7%
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 6,667 6.8%5,806 7.3%6,412 6.7%4,937 5.9%
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6,887 7.1%5,916 7.4%6,588 6.9%5,074 6.1%
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 6,368 6.5%5,591 7.0%6,228 6.5%5,067 6.1%
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 6,376 6.5%5,027 6.3%5,118 5.3%4,286 5.1%
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 5,322 5.5%3,460 4.3%3,751 3.9%3,398 4.1%
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 4,365 4.5%2,764 3.5%2,995 3.1%2,711 3.2%
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 3,688 3.8%2,397 3.0%2,637 2.8%2,422 2.9%
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 2,581 2.6%1,738 2.2%1,880 2.0%1,646 2.0%
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 1,615 1.7%1,145 1.4%1,230 1.3%1,097 1.3%
12:00 AM 11:59 PM 97,529 100.0%80,069 100.0%95,705 100.0%83,658 100.0%
Southbound
Dates
Northbound
I-15 Southbound I-15 Northbound
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
South of SR-91 North of SR-91
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
South of SR-91 North of SR-91
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.11
SR-71 leads north from SR-91, and shows a clear southbound peak in the morning and a
northbound peak in the afternoon. As with SR-91 and I-15, overall traffic volumes are highest
on Friday. Saturday and Sunday show lower volumes than during the week. SR-71 weekday
volumes are summarized in Table 3-5 and Figure 3-10.
Table 3-5
Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-71
Figure 3-10
Weekday Traffic Volumes on SR-71
South of SR-91 South of SR-91
11/15, 11/16, 11/17, 11/18 11/15, 11/16, 11/17, 11/18
Hour
Start End
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 262 0.7%275 0.8%
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 181 0.5%207 0.6%
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 147 0.4%206 0.6%
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 253 0.7%321 0.9%
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 656 1.8%823 2.3%
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 1,862 5.0%1,156 3.3%
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 2,829 7.6%1,275 3.6%
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 3,073 8.3%1,791 5.1%
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 2,829 7.6%1,275 3.6%
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 2,281 6.1%1,867 5.3%
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 1,719 4.6%1,657 4.7%
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 1,606 4.3%1,759 5.0%
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 1,700 4.6%1,823 5.2%
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 1,809 4.9%1,926 5.5%
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 1,942 5.2%2,155 6.1%
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 2,042 5.5%2,448 6.9%
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 2,223 6.0%2,869 8.1%
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 2,486 6.7%3,098 8.8%
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 2,223 6.0%2,869 8.1%
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 1,472 4.0%1,875 5.3%
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 1,256 3.4%1,277 3.6%
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 1,018 2.7%1,114 3.2%
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 836 2.2%751 2.1%
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 493 1.3%464 1.3%
12:00 AM 11:59 PM 37,197 100.0%35,278 100.0%
Southbound Northbound
Dates
SR-71 Southbound SR-71 Northbound
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.12
3.1.3 PEMS Traffic Counts
To verify the traffic volumes obtained by the Wavetronix traffic counters, and obtain traffic
volumes for the ramps leading to and from SR-91, traffic data were downloaded from the
Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). PeMS is a basic system management tool
that was jointly developed by Caltrans and the Partners f or Advanced Transit and Highways at
the University of California, Berkeley. PeMS provides historical and real-time traffic data from a
consolidated database of information collected via Caltrans loop detectors in metropolitan
areas of California. Traffic volume and speed data were obtained from the PeMS databases for
the vehicle detector stations in the project study area for October and November.
PeMS volumes at two locations nearby the Wavetronix count locations were obtained for an
average Tuesday – Thursday in November 2010 and March 2011 to verify the Wavetronix data.
These data are plotted in Figure 3-11 to Figure 3-14. As can be seen in the figures, the overall
traffic volumes remained fairly constant when measured by the two sources, and from month
to month.
Figure 3-11
Westbound Wavetronix and PeMS Data at Wavetronix Location 2
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
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4:0
0
A
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6:0
0
A
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8:0
0
A
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10
:
0
0
A
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12
:
0
0
P
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2:0
0
P
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4:0
0
P
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6:0
0
P
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8:0
0
P
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10
:
0
0
P
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12
:
0
0
A
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
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6:0
0
P
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8:0
0
P
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10
:
0
0
P
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12
:
0
0
A
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Pe
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T
r
a
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.13
Figure 3-12
Westbound Wavetronix and PeMS data at Wavetronix Location 3
Figure 3-13
Eastbound Wavetronix and PeMS Data at Wavetronix Location 2
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
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10
:
0
0
A
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12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
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Tr
a
f
f
i
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V
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
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6:0
0
P
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8:0
0
P
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10
:
0
0
P
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12
:
0
0
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Pe
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T
r
a
f
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
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8:0
0
A
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10
:
0
0
A
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12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
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4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
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8:0
0
P
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10
:
0
0
P
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12
:
0
0
A
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Tr
a
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f
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V
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
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6:0
0
A
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8:0
0
A
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10
:
0
0
A
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12
:
0
0
P
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2:0
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4:0
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6:0
0
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8:0
0
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10
:
0
0
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12
:
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.14
Figure 3-14
Eastbound Wavetronix and PeMS Data at Wavetronix Location 3
In addition to providing mainline traffic volumes, the PeMS data provided hourly volumes for
many of the on and off ramps connecting to SR-91.
3.1.4 OCTA Transaction Data
Traffic count data from the Orange County Transportation Authority were also available to
Stantec for the 91 Express Lanes in Orange County, just west of the study area. These data
provide toll road usage data for a comparable facility. Additionally, since there are no entrance
or exit points between the end of the Orange County toll lanes and the count conducted for this
project between SR-241 and SR-71, it is possible to compare the data from the two sources.
In the toll lanes in Orange County, HOV-3+ are allowed to travel paying a reduced toll. As
shown in Table 3-6 HOV-3+ traffic volumes peak at close to 600 vehicles per hour in both the
AM and PM time peak periods. This represents about 6% of the total traffic in the corridor
during those hours. Since there are no entrances or exits from the SR-91 toll lanes other than
at its endpoints, the HOV-3+ volume on the roadway may be higher, with some high occupancy
vehicles exiting prior to the terminus of the toll lanes and unable to use them. These HOV -3+
data are similar to the conditions in the proposed to ll lanes in Riverside County, where vehicles
with 3 or more occupants will also be allowed to ride for free.
The OCTA transaction data also provides the traffic volume using the toll lanes. As shown in
Table 3-6, and in Figure 3-15 and Figure 3-16 the toll traffic is highest during the morning and
afternoon peak periods. In both directions, toll traffic appears largest when more than 6,000
vehicles per hour are using the corridor. As can be seen, traffic in the general purpose lanes
reaches a limit during the peak periods while tolled and HOV traffic continues to grow.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
12
:
0
0
A
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2:0
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
12
:
0
0
A
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2:0
0
A
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4:0
0
A
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6:0
0
A
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8:0
0
A
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10
:
0
0
A
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12
:
0
0
P
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2:0
0
P
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4:0
0
P
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6:0
0
P
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8:0
0
P
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10
:
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0
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12
:
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Hour Start
November 2010 Wavetronix March 2011 PEMS November 2010 PEMS
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.15
Table 3-6
Total Traffic, HOV Traffic, and Toll Lane Traffic
at Eastern End of OCTA Toll Lanes (Average Weekday)
Start End Total Traffic HOV Toll HOT Traffic Total Traffic HOV Toll HOT Traffic
12:00 AM 1:00 1,708 10 31 41 1,295 3 9 12
1:00 AM 2:00 1,093 5 10 15 949 1 4 5
2:00 AM 3:00 932 3 6 10 1,128 2 5 7
3:00 AM 4:00 933 2 4 5 1,978 24 24 48
4:00 AM 5:00 1,310 2 15 18 5,762 222 312 534
5:00 AM 6:00 2,829 17 76 93 9,328 509 1,247 1,756
6:00 AM 7:00 5,065 29 170 199 9,892 600 1,778 2,378
7:00 AM 8:00 6,524 27 303 330 10,375 493 1,842 2,335
8:00 AM 9:00 6,659 36 329 365 9,469 223 1,633 1,855
9:00 AM 10:00 5,952 37 313 350 8,400 187 1,211 1,398
10:00 AM 11:00 5,509 34 334 367 7,193 133 871 1,004
11:00 AM 12:00 5,671 47 415 462 6,536 90 612 702
12:00 PM 13:00 6,152 61 563 624 6,195 93 508 601
1:00 PM 14:00 6,980 115 823 938 6,285 83 486 569
2:00 PM 15:00 8,322 229 1,477 1,705 6,306 88 503 591
3:00 PM 16:00 8,897 491 2,256 2,747 6,554 111 564 675
4:00 PM 17:00 9,351 510 2,430 2,939 7,173 119 626 746
5:00 PM 18:00 9,332 497 2,437 2,934 7,174 126 585 712
6:00 PM 19:00 9,720 588 2,360 2,948 5,870 82 394 476
7:00 PM 20:00 8,945 361 1,484 1,845 4,147 51 159 209
8:00 PM 21:00 6,608 212 716 928 3,259 26 108 133
9:00 PM 22:00 5,493 167 407 574 3,050 20 76 96
10:00 PM 23:00 4,381 95 226 321 2,413 12 38 50
11:00 PM 0:00 2,745 34 80 114 1,718 6 15 20
12:00 AM 24:00 131,107 3,606 17,262 20,868 132,449 3,304 13,610 16,914
Eastbound Westbound
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.16
Figure 3-15
Westbound Weekday OCTA HOV and Toll Volumes and Wavetronix Total Volume
Figure 3-16
Eastbound Weekday OCTA HOV and Toll Volumes and Wavetronix Total Volume
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
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1:
0
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A
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2:
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HOV Toll GP Traffic Total Traffic
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
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1:
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7:
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10
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1:
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4:
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5:
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7:
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HOV Toll GP Traffic Total Traffic
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.17
3.1.5 HOV Data
At present, in Riverside County, high occupancy vehicles with two or more occupants (HOV -2+)
are allowed to use an HOV lane on SR-91. The Wavetronix traffic counts provided traffic data
on a lane-by-lane basis, making it possible to break out the percentage of traffic using the HOV
lane. Since Riverside County allows vehicles with only two o ccupants to use the HOV lane, and
there are more entry and exit points from the lane than the Orange County Express lanes, the
HOV volumes are higher in Riverside County than in Orange County. Table 3-7 shows the HOV
volumes at the three Wavetronix count locations on SR-91.
As shown in the table and in Figure 3-17 through Figure 3-19, the HOV-2+ volume rises to over
1,000 vehicles per hour in the morning and afternoon peak periods. In the morning, almost a
quarter of the traffic in the 6AM hour is made up of HOV vehicles at the count station to the
west of I-15. The HOV traffic during the 6AM and 7AM hours makes up such a large percentage
of the total traffic during those hours because the tr affic in the general purpose lanes drops
greatly, likely due conditions breaking down due to congestion. In the morning, the hour with
the highest volume of HOV traffic is 5AM to 6AM.
In the afternoon, the highest HOV volumes are in the 4PM hour. Just e ast of SR-71, over 17% of
the total traffic is HOV vehicles between 3PM and 7PM.
On Friday and Saturday, and Sunday, HOV traffic on SR-91 was heavier than during the week.
On Sunday, HOV traffic westbound remained high, while eastbound HOV traffic was lower.
HOV Volumes by day of week are shown in Figure 3-20 through Figure 3-22.
Table 3-7
Average Weekday HOV Volumes and Percent of Total Volume
Start End HOV HOV %HOV HOV %HOV HOV %HOV HOV %HOV HOV %HOV HOV %
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 32 2.29%100 5.58%34 2.52%41 4.06%69 5.75%45 4.94%
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 19 1.92%81 7.01%13 1.58%45 4.18%56 5.87%36 5.17%
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 25 2.62%81 7.99%6 0.83%49 4.30%62 6.06%42 6.01%
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 22 1.97%88 7.61%5 0.77%206 7.99%109 5.72%84 6.07%
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 52 2.39%88 4.83%10 1.02%635 10.99%512 8.66%483 11.13%
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 145 3.72%156 4.02%51 2.35%1,325 15.52%1,166 18.44%1,233 19.71%
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 273 5.12%287 4.59%189 4.34%1,215 16.70%979 24.02%885 18.60%
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 306 4.95%404 5.33%335 5.48%1,278 16.73%889 20.92%883 17.56%
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 445 6.81%380 5.09%297 5.53%1,206 15.44%904 18.00%1,133 20.51%
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 357 6.09%421 5.66%349 6.83%925 12.81%758 12.43%982 17.35%
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 374 6.50%409 5.68%282 5.41%863 12.59%711 10.15%900 16.06%
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 412 7.01%430 5.86%303 5.60%732 11.57%620 8.90%789 13.29%
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 568 8.52%470 6.04%336 5.79%648 10.99%579 8.40%751 12.44%
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 860 11.66%629 7.52%491 7.95%669 11.16%611 8.88%834 14.14%
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 1,173 15.62%871 9.58%707 10.36%698 10.97%620 8.66%856 13.17%
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 1,431 17.76%1,052 11.31%922 12.95%766 11.50%674 9.12%897 13.50%
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 1,434 17.70%1,163 13.07%1,012 14.48%764 11.07%647 8.73%849 12.98%
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 1,440 17.31%1,141 13.03%946 13.48%663 10.20%646 8.98%921 13.70%
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 1,484 17.84%996 11.50%923 13.15%556 10.47%592 9.10%791 12.74%
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 1,073 13.74%885 10.36%777 12.66%335 8.59%361 7.37%394 8.30%
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 483 8.55%496 7.62%551 11.24%231 7.45%256 6.61%250 6.64%
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 380 7.54%389 6.93%315 7.53%182 6.61%242 6.72%208 6.06%
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 181 5.09%307 7.25%207 6.31%120 5.82%178 6.69%143 5.94%
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 71 3.25%198 6.63%91 4.36%61 5.25%123 7.02%86 5.58%
12:00 AM 11:59 PM 13,036 10.5%11,524 8.1%9,152 8.6%14,208 11.9%12,360 10.6%14,470 13.5%
Eastbound Westbound
2. East of SR-71 3. West of I-15 4.East of I-15 2. East of SR-71 3. West of I-15 4. East of I-15
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.18
Figure 3-17
Average Weekday Traffic East of SR-71 Broken into HOV and GP
Figure 3-18
Average Weekday Traffic West of I-15 Broken into HOV and GP
Figure 3-19
Average Weekday Traffic East of I-15 Broken into HOV and GP
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
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0
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4,000
6,000
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Hour Start
EB HOV EB GP EB Total
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
0
0
A
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2:0
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4:0
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6:0
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8:0
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2:0
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Hour Start
WB HOV WB GP WB Total
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
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2:0
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Hour Start
EB HOV EB GP EB Total
Westbound Eastbound
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
:
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Hour Start
WB HOV WB GP WB Total
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
12
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EB HOV EB GP EB Total
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.19
Figure 3-20
HOV Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of SR-71
Figure 3-21
HOV Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, West of I-15
Figure 3-22
HOV Traffic Volumes on SR-91 by Day of Week, East of I-15
Westbound Eastbound
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
12
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Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
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1,000
1,200
1,400
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12
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Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Westbound Eastbound
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
12
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Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
200
400
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1,200
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12
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Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Westbound Eastbound
0
200
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600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
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2,000
12
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Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
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1,200
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12
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Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.20
3.1.6 Balanced Flow Network
A detailed and consistent set of traffic volumes was needed for model validation and to be used
for the basis for post processing model volumes for mainline freeway and for on and off ramps.
To provide this consistent set of traffic volumes from the available traffic counts, it was
necessary to balance (or reconcile) the SR-91 mainline and ramp counts. This required making
minor adjustments to the measured counts at some or all count locations. The two main
reasons that the raw count data do not balance are:
(1) The count data were collected on different count dates and represent an average
over multiple days. There is considerable day to day variation in traffic volumes.
(2) No data collection technology is 100% completely error free. The induction loops
imbedded in the freeway and ramp lanes and the Wavetronix radar units,
sometimes underestimate or overestimate traffic volumes by some minor fraction of
the total traffic volume.
The PeMS mainline and ramp counts and the Wavetronix counts were the main sources for this
balancing algorithm. The main goal was to obtain a set of balanced volumes while minimizing
the relative adjustment to the counts. In locations where count data were available from
multiple sources, engineering judgment was used to select counts that were the most
consistent with the counts obtained from neighboring upstream and downstream locations.
The balanced network is shown in Figure 3-23.
Of interest is the imbalance in daily eastbound versus westbound traffic volumes. While the
western portion of the SR 91 corridor (west of Maple Street) shows even directional balance,
the eastern portion of the corridor shows much higher eastbound than westbound volumes.
This suggests that vehicles may be using local streets in Corona during the AM peak period to
bypass congestion in the vicinity of the SR 91/I-15 interchange, instead accessing the SR 91
corridor via Maple Street or Lincoln Avenue.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.21
Figure 3-23
Existing Balanced Network
Green River Road SR-71 Auto Center Drive Maple Street Lincoln Avenue
OCTA
Express Lanes
6th Street
123,456 = Volume in Mixing Are a Main Street I-15 McKinley Street Pierce Street
1,234 = Ramp Volumes
56,789 = GP Lane Volume s Grand Grand
10,123=HOV lane Volume s
107,361
14,479
9,467SR-91 Riverside County
Balanced Volumes
16,914
20,868
122,533
107,361
14,479
10,055
106,382
124,509
8,172
Avenue
12,082
10,055
8,963
8,876
19,660
19,53925,354
122,533119,014
7,202
77,412
76,544
10,974
90,457
12,620
89,874
101,431
102,494
117,850
13,661
14,479
123,712
15,719
132,091
8,357
12,949 11,596
117,185 114,221 108,191
114,999 117,173
12,546 3,649
16,529
7,087 7,625
130,101
7,820
9,1874,645
10,674
4,7668,15717,38518,1995,7547,614
135,867
127,150
126,971
12,576
15,14020,51018,370
6,372
104,634
96,322
13,837
8,723
40,894 16,650
19,955
9,920
21,401
3,950
4,502 11,346 29,763
22,681Avenue33,3749,977 15,311
113,668
124,137
10,974
12,620
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.22
3.1.7 Origin Destination Survey
In order to verify the balanced flow n etwork, an origin destination survey was conducted using
BluFax detection devices to detect Bluetooth equipment in vehicles (Bluetooth is a wireless
transmission standard commonly used between cellular telephones and hands free devices).
Since Bluetooth transmissions can be uniquely identified, it was possible to track the movement
of vehicles through the corridor with detection devices at strategic locations throughout the
corridor. The Bluetooth detectors were located at the same locations as the Wavetronix
detectors (See Figure 3-1)
As can be seen in Figure 3-24 through Figure 3-26, the BluFax detection devices recorded very
similar vehicle movements as are shown in the balanced network.
Figure 3-24
Distribution of Traffic on SR-91 at SR-71 Interchange
SR-91 EB to SR-71 Interchange SR-91 WB to SR-71 Interchange
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SR-91 EB to SR-91 NB SR-91 EB Across SR-71
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Bluefax Balanced Network
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
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100%
SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB SR-91 WB Across SR-71
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Bluefax Balanced Network
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.23
Figure 3-25
Distribution of Traffic on SR-91 at I-15 Interchange
Figure 3-26
Distribution of Traffic Entering SR-91
SR-91 EB to I-15 Interchange SR-91 WB to I-15 Interchange
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SR-91 EB to I-15 NB SR-91 EB Across I-15 SR-91 EB to I-15 SB
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Bluefax Balanced Network
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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80%
90%
100%
SR-91 WB to I-15 SB SR-91 WB Across I-15 SR-91 WB to I-15 NB
Pe
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Bluefax Balanced Network
SR-71 SB to SR-91 To SR-91 Westbound, West of I-15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SR-71 SB to SR-91 EB SR-71 SB to SR-91 WB
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R
-91
S
B
Bluefax Balanced Network
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
I-15 NB to SR-91 WB SR-91 WB Across I-15 I-15 SB to SR-91 WB
Pe
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-91
W
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W
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I
-15
Bluefax Balanced Network
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.24
3.2 VEHICLE SPEEDS
Vehicle speeds in the study area were obtained using three methods. First, at the 4 Wavetronix
locations on SR-91 and the 3 locations on intersecting routes, speeds were collected at fifteen
minute increments throughout the course of a week. Second, a set of detection devices, called
“BluFax,” were installed to monitor Bluetooth transmissions in the area. Third, speed data
were available from the Caltrans PeMS system.
3.2.1 Wavetronix Speed Data
The Wavetronix radar counts provided spot speed data for 15-minute increments. These data
correspond to the volume data also recorded by the Wavetronix sensors.
As shown in Figure 3-27 and Figure 3-28 during the average weekday, speeds on SR-91
deteriorated in the morning in the westbound direction and in the afternoon in the eastbound
direction. In the morning, the most severe drop in speeds was at the Wavetronix location to
the west of I-15, where speeds fell below 20 mph from 6AM to 9AM. Congestion at this
location was recorded for the majority of the day, with average speeds falling below 60 mph in
the 4AM hour and remaining below 60 mph until the 6PM hour. At the other westbound
locations, congestion was mainly limited to the morning peak period. At the count location
west of SR-71, speeds fell below 35 mph in the 6AM and 7AM hours. East of SR-71 speeds were
reduced in the morning time periods, however, severe congestion was not observed.
In the eastbound direction on SR-91, on an average weekday, speeds fell below 40 mph
between 2PM and 7PM at the location to the east of SR-71. Slow speeds were also recorded at
the location between SR-241 and SR-71 in the eastbound direction. Further east, a drop in
speeds was recorded in the afternoon; however the duration of the congestion was less severe
On Friday, speeds recorded at the Wavetronix stations showed slightly less westbound
congestion in the morning time periods. In the eastbound direction, congestion was generally
more severe on the Friday when the Wavetronix counts were conducted. Eastbound on Friday,
speeds dropped earlier in the day, fell lower and remained slow later in the evening than on the
weekdays where the counts were conducted (see Figure 3-29 and Figure 3-30).
On Saturday, westbound speeds were generally fast, with some con gestion recorded between
I-15 and SR-71 in the afternoon hours. Eastbound on Saturday, speeds followed a similar
pattern as during an average weekday afternoon, with congestion mainly concentrated
between 2 PM and 7PM. Minimal congestion was recorded on Sunday, with a small drop in
westbound speeds at the count location just west of I -15 (see Figure 3-31 through Figure 3-34).
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.25
Figure 3-27
Weekday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound)
Figure 3-28
Weekday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Eastbound)
3. SR-91 Westbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Westbound East of I-15
1. SR-91 Westbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Westbound East of SR-71
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
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General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
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General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
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80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
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General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
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80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
1. SR-91 Eastbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Eastbound East of SR-71
3. SR-91 Eastbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Eastbound East of I-15
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
l
P
u
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p
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T
r
a
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u
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Ge
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a
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P
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p
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e
L
a
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A
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r
a
g
e
S
p
e
e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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Ge
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P
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L
a
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A
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r
a
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S
p
e
e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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P
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L
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A
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a
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S
p
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e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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P
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.26
Figure 3-29
Friday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound)
Figure 3-30
Friday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Eastbound)
3. SR-91 Westbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Westbound East of I-15
1. SR-91 Westbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Westbound East of SR-71
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
o
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a
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T
r
a
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Ge
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P
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a
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S
p
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e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
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P
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p
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P
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A
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a
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S
p
e
e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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P
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L
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A
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a
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
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P
u
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p
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P
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A
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S
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
1. SR-91 Eastbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Eastbound East of SR-71
3. SR-91 Eastbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Eastbound East of I-15
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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T
r
a
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Ge
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P
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L
a
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A
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a
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S
p
e
e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
a
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P
u
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p
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Ge
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P
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L
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A
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a
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
a
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P
u
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p
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p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
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P
u
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p
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S
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.27
Figure 3-31
Saturday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound)
Figure 3-32
Saturday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Eastbound)
3. SR-91 Westbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Westbound East of I-15
1. SR-91 Westbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Westbound East of SR-71
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
o
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a
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T
r
a
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f
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u
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Ge
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P
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a
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A
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a
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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a
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r
a
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P
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S
p
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e
d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
r
a
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P
u
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p
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T
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
1. SR-91 Eastbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Eastbound East of SR-71
3. SR-91 Eastbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Eastbound East of I-15
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
u
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A
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a
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.28
Figure 3-33
Sunday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound)
Figure 3-34
Sunday General Purpose Lane Speed and Volume (Westbound)
3. SR-91 Westbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Westbound East of I-15
1. SR-91 Westbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Westbound East of SR-71
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
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P
u
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p
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a
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a
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S
p
e
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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P
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
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P
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S
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
1. SR-91 Eastbound Between SR-241 and SR-71 2. SR-91 Eastbound East of SR-71
3. SR-91 Eastbound West of I-15 4. SR-91 Eastbound East of I-15
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
e
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P
u
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p
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P
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S
p
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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r
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P
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P
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S
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d
General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
Ge
n
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P
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General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12:00 AM 4:00 AM 8:00 AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM 12:00 AM
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General Purpose Speed General Purpose Traffic
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.29
3.2.2 BluFax Speeds
In order to supplement the spot speeds recorded by the Wavetronix detection devices,
additional speed data were collected using detection devices called “BluFax” to detect
Bluetooth equipment in vehicles (Bluetooth is a wireless transmission standard commonly used
between cellular telephones and hands free devices). Since Bluetooth transmissions can be
uniquely identified, it was possible to track the movement of vehicles through the corridor with
detection devices at strategic locations throughout the corridor. BluFax detections provide the
average travel time for vehicles between the detection stations, and provide a fuller picture of
the travel speeds than the spot speeds recorded by the Wavetronix devices.
On the weekday mornings, the BluFax speeds showed severe congestion through the
interchange between I-15 and SR-91. On SR-91 Westbound, speeds fell below 20 mph from the
5 AM hour to the 9 AM hour. Similarly slow speeds were recorded from I-15 southbound to SR-
91 westbound, and the most severe congestion in the interchange was recorded on the ramp
from I-15 northbound to SR-91 westbound. Between I-15 and the interchange with SR-71,
speeds also became very congested in the morning peak period. Speeds were below 20 mph
for three hours, from 6AM to 9AM. Moving to the western end of the study area, speeds
became faster, with the average speed across the interchange with SR -91 staying above 25 mph
for the entire day (see Table 3-8 and Figure 3-35). This level of westbound congestion is
different than the SR 91 corridor in Orange County, where very little congestion occurs, even
during the AM peak period. This suggests that the Riverside County 91 Express Lanes may offer
greater time savings and therefore will generate increased traffic and revenue from the
westbound Express Lanes compared to the Orange County 91 Express Lanes, where the
eastbound traffic and revenue makes up the majority of the daily traffic and revenue.
In the afternoon on weekdays, congestion was not recorded to be as severe as during the
morning peak period; however, slow speeds were observed. The most severe congestion was
observed at the SR-71 interchange in the, where vehicles traveling through the interchange on
SR-91 averaged below 40 mph from 2PM to 8PM. East of this interchange, congestion was less
severe, with speeds under 40 mph between 3PM and 7PM. At I-15, the congestion begins to
dissipate, and slow speeds under 40 mph were recorded for three hours of the day, from 4PM
to 7PM (see Table 3-9 and Figure 3-36). While congestion exists in the eastbound direction,
speeds in Riverside County are higher than those in Orange County. As noted above, this
implies that the westbound Riverside County 91 Express Lanes may be as attractive as the
eastbound Express Lanes, leading to more balan ced directional traffic volumes compared to the
existing 91 Express Lanes in Orange County where eastbound volumes are much higher.
On Friday, as shown in Table 3-10, speeds recorded showed a similar pattern as the speeds
recorded by the Wavetronix stations. Westbound speeds were slightly less congested in the
morning, and similar throughout the remainder of the day. Eastbound speeds were slower in
the afternoon, with congestion starting earlier and lasting later into the evening.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.30
On weekends, as shown in Table 3-11 and Table 3-12, speeds recorded by the BluFax detection
devices also showed a similar pattern as the speeds recorded by the Wavetronix stations.
Westbound speeds were recorded with minimal congestion on Saturday and Sunday.
Eastbound Saturday speeds were similar to eastbound weekday speeds, with congestion
starting somewhat earlier. On Sunday eastbound speeds did not show congestion.
Table 3-8
Average Weekday Speeds Recorded by BluFax (Westbound)
Figure 3-35
Average Westbound Weekday Speeds at 7AM
I-15 SB I-15 NB SR-91 WB SR-71 SB
to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 WB
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 61.1 61.3 67.6 71.5 70.5 63.7 61.1
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 58.8 63.5 66.0 70.3 70.4 64.5 53.7
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 57.2 61.5 66.0 69.7 69.9 65.4 56.4
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 58.0 62.1 66.7 70.0 69.9 62.1 59.1
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 56.9 42.0 66.0 69.3 71.2 62.8 61.7
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 20.1 10.0 16.9 29.5 48.1 53.2 48.4
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 8.2 6.0 7.9 13.9 30.9 42.5 33.2
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 7.4 6.1 10.0 13.5 29.4 43.6 31.3
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 8.7 6.4 10.0 17.7 44.8 49.3 40.6
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 17.3 11.3 11.4 32.4 60.7 56.8 56.7
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 48.5 19.6 40.3 54.4 67.2 59.6 60.7
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 56.6 31.8 65.2 65.5 70.2 60.6 62.3
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 58.3 46.3 66.5 65.8 70.9 60.7 62.9
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 56.7 51.1 64.7 66.0 70.8 61.3 61.9
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 59.2 53.0 62.5 63.9 70.2 60.7 61.8
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 59.2 50.8 66.7 69.2 70.1 60.0 59.9
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 58.7 48.4 66.4 67.8 70.2 60.0 59.0
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 58.1 49.5 65.5 68.4 68.8 59.0 59.5
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 58.0 54.6 65.5 68.6 69.8 60.0 60.5
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 59.2 57.1 65.7 70.5 71.4 61.6 62.9
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 60.8 58.9 66.1 71.5 71.8 64.2 62.1
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 60.2 59.9 67.2 72.0 71.7 62.9 62.9
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 60.0 58.2 67.5 72.7 72.5 64.2 61.7
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 62.2 62.8 67.4 72.2 65.1 63.1 60.9
I-15 Interchange
to SR-91 WB
I-15 Int. to
SR-71 Int.
SR-71 Interchange
SR-91 WB
Westbound Speeds
13.5 mph
6.1 mph
10.0 mph
7.4 mph31.3 mph 43.6 mph
29.4 mph
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
12
:
0
0
A
M
1:
0
0
A
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2:
0
0
A
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3:
0
0
A
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4:
0
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5:
0
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6:
0
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7:
0
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8:
0
0
A
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9:
0
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A
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10
:
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11
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12
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1:
0
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2:
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3:
0
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4:
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5:
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6:
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7:
0
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8:
0
0
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M
9:
0
0
P
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10
:
0
0
P
M
11
:
0
0
P
M
SR-91 WB Across I-15 I-15 NB to SR-91 WB I-15 SB to SR-91 WB
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
12
:
0
0
A
M
1:
0
0
A
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2:
0
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3:
0
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4:
0
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5:
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9:
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10
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11
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0
0
A
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12
:
0
0
P
M
1:0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
3:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
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5:0
0
P
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6:0
0
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7:0
0
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8:0
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9:0
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10
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11
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SR-91 WB From I-15 to SR-71
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
12
:
0
0
A
M
1:
0
0
A
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2:
0
0
A
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3:
0
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4:
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5:
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6:
0
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7:
0
0
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8:
0
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9:
0
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10
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0
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11
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0
0
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12
:
0
0
P
M
1:0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
3:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
5:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
7:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
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9:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
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11
:
0
0
P
M
SR-91 WB Across SR-71 SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB SR-71 SB to SR-91 WB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.31
Table 3-9
Average Weekday Speeds Recorded by BluFax (Eastbound)
Figure 3-36
Average Eastbound Weekday Speeds at 5PM
SR-91 EB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB
to SR-71 NB to SR-91 EB to I-15 SB to I-15 EB
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 63.0 63.6 64.9 67.0 72.0 64.2 65.8
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 60.7 61.6 67.0 68.4 70.3 64.6 66.8
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 61.4 59.3 67.5 66.1 70.2 63.4 64.2
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 61.4 63.2 64.5 65.6 70.7 62.9 63.3
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 59.7 59.1 66.6 65.5 70.9 61.8 64.9
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 63.4 60.5 68.1 67.6 73.2 60.5 65.2
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 59.0 55.1 68.0 67.9 73.3 59.7 59.9
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 60.1 51.8 68.2 65.6 71.2 55.3 63.6
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 59.1 50.4 64.6 66.4 73.2 57.5 57.0
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 59.2 53.3 67.6 66.8 73.6 56.6 59.0
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 58.7 58.1 67.2 65.1 72.0 55.7 58.7
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 59.5 56.5 66.7 64.4 70.1 54.5 56.9
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 58.0 57.3 66.1 63.5 70.1 54.7 57.0
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 58.1 46.4 61.9 60.5 69.7 54.8 57.8
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 40.2 24.1 37.4 43.5 66.0 49.6 53.3
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 30.9 12.2 26.4 32.0 42.2 50.6 54.7
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 28.5 10.1 25.5 27.5 25.6 49.1 51.8
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 28.3 11.3 29.1 30.1 21.7 46.3 50.4
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 33.0 12.4 33.5 34.7 29.0 46.7 51.6
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 37.6 13.9 35.6 41.8 54.6 51.8 55.3
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 53.0 30.4 56.8 56.0 69.2 54.8 58.7
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 60.7 59.9 67.0 65.8 71.8 61.0 62.8
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 61.0 60.8 68.3 67.2 72.4 63.5 63.6
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 60.5 61.0 67.2 68.0 72.0 63.7 63.2
Eastbound Speeds
SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Int. to
I-15 Int.
I-15 Interchange
to SR-91 EB
SR-91 EB
30.1 mph
46.3 mph
50.4 mph28.3 mph 11.3 mph
29.1 mph
21.7 mph
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
12
:
0
0
A
M
1:
0
0
A
M
2:
0
0
A
M
3:
0
0
A
M
4:
0
0
A
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5:
0
0
A
M
6:
0
0
A
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7:
0
0
A
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8:
0
0
A
M
9:
0
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A
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10
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11
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0
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12
:
0
0
P
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1:0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
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3:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
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5:0
0
P
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6:0
0
P
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7:0
0
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8:0
0
P
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9:0
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10
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11
:
0
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P
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SR-91 EB Across SR-71 SR-71 SB to SR-91 EB SR-91 EB to SR-71 NB
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
12
:
0
0
A
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1:
0
0
A
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2:
0
0
A
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3:
0
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A
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4:
0
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5:
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6:
0
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7:
0
0
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8:
0
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A
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9:
0
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10
:
0
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A
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11
:
0
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12
:
0
0
P
M
1:0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
3:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
5:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
7:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
9:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
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11
:
0
0
P
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SR 91 EB Between SR-71 and I-15
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
12
:
0
0
A
M
1:
0
0
A
M
2:
0
0
A
M
3:
0
0
A
M
4:
0
0
A
M
5:
0
0
A
M
6:
0
0
A
M
7:
0
0
A
M
8:
0
0
A
M
9:
0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
11
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
1:
0
0
P
M
2:
0
0
P
M
3:
0
0
P
M
4:
0
0
P
M
5:
0
0
P
M
6:
0
0
P
M
7:
0
0
P
M
8:
0
0
P
M
9:
0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
11
:
0
0
P
M
SR-91 EB Across I-15 SR-91 EB to I-15 NB SR-91 EB to I-15 SB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.32
Table 3-10
Average Friday Speeds Recorded by BluFax
Table 3-11
Average Saturday Speeds Recorded by BluFax
Table 3-12
Average Sunday Speeds Recorded by BluFax
I-15 SB I-15 NB SR-91 WB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB
to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 EB to I-15 SB to I-15 EB
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 62.1 63.1 66.2 71.1 70.7 60.6 58.2 46.8 55.7 54.3 62.7 74.3 63.5 63.0
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 59.6 62.3 64.8 70.9 68.8 61.3 58.2 60.6 62.8 70.7 70.4 73.1 67.0 65.0
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 58.3 61.1 68.1 71.6 70.3 69.5 55.8 70.0 61.4 69.0 65.4 70.0 60.5 66.5
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 58.2 59.5 68.1 70.9 70.3 62.9 65.4 58.9 62.7 66.8 67.5 72.5 67.4 67.2
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 58.9 44.8 67.2 70.2 71.5 62.4 64.2 62.7 62.7 66.7 65.2 69.6 64.0 65.3
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 22.5 11.4 23.1 32.4 50.7 55.2 50.7 65.3 59.7 68.6 68.4 73.7 62.9 63.9
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 14.8 10.3 25.6 16.5 36.2 45.0 36.0 58.6 55.0 68.1 66.8 72.6 61.1 63.1
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 36.9 27.9 50.4 29.5 55.6 50.3 51.4 59.6 55.6 68.8 66.2 73.0 60.0 63.0
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 57.1 36.9 65.0 55.0 41.3 54.9 34.2 59.4 58.7 67.5 65.9 44.1 59.1 61.7
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 28.2 13.9 42.0 18.4 25.0 33.1 22.9 58.3 55.9 67.2 65.4 28.6 58.4 60.5
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 37.2 13.8 45.7 27.2 54.4 38.5 61.5 56.9 58.1 66.8 62.7 25.2 52.5 54.5
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 58.0 32.9 66.0 67.1 69.1 59.3 62.1 57.9 57.9 66.5 36.3 17.9 47.3 50.4
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 59.2 44.8 65.9 68.8 69.5 59.7 61.2 56.9 21.8 53.9 24.7 14.0 47.6 49.0
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 57.7 34.2 64.9 68.5 69.8 59.5 56.7 28.8 12.4 25.0 28.9 56.7 48.9 53.5
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 57.1 29.4 65.3 67.3 68.4 59.1 59.3 29.6 13.6 30.1 31.9 63.6 47.2 52.6
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 56.3 28.9 65.3 67.7 68.9 57.0 59.2 31.3 10.7 27.9 29.5 39.3 20.5 50.7
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 56.6 21.5 64.7 65.8 67.7 59.6 58.1 27.8 9.2 21.7 16.9 55.1 7.1 26.1
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 55.3 25.4 63.8 66.7 42.9 55.9 38.9 20.4 8.4 16.2 16.5 60.4 8.6 31.7
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 55.3 45.5 64.5 68.4 68.8 58.6 56.6 26.3 8.2 20.9 20.1 59.4 11.3 32.2
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 57.2 54.7 67.2 71.0 71.3 62.1 59.9 35.3 17.6 34.1 35.1 64.0 42.3 52.5
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 60.2 58.5 67.7 71.8 71.3 62.9 60.4 48.1 14.9 41.5 44.6 65.7 50.9 54.3
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 59.8 57.8 66.8 72.4 71.7 60.9 62.1 55.5 56.2 51.2 46.3 67.1 47.1 51.8
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 60.4 58.6 67.6 72.9 72.0 63.2 61.7 60.4 59.5 67.4 66.0 72.4 61.5 63.7
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 60.2 61.1 68.4 73.8 72.6 64.6 65.9 60.8 57.7 67.9 66.8 72.0 63.0 64.7
to SR-91 WB to SR-91 EB
Westbound Speeds Eastbound Speeds
I-15 Interchange I-15 Int. to
SR-71 Int.
SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Int. to
I-15 Int.
I-15 Interchange
SR-91 WB SR-91 EB
I-15 SB I-15 NB SR-91 WB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB
to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 EB to I-15 SB to I-15 EB
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 61.9 58.8 67.1 74.2 72.2 58.9 63.1 60.9 62.5 68.4 69.0 73.1 62.6 66.6
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 60.2 62.6 68.5 75.0 73.0 63.0 59.1 58.4 62.5 70.6 70.0 71.1 66.3 67.5
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 57.6 59.8 65.8 72.0 71.9 67.5 58.0 59.0 64.3 69.8 70.0 72.0 60.7 68.3
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 60.0 59.8 68.0 71.3 71.6 63.7 59.3 60.4 57.6 68.3 68.9 74.0 65.1 62.8
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 60.3 60.7 68.8 73.7 71.1 65.4 61.6 62.3 52.0 67.6 66.9 72.9 63.5 63.8
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 56.5 60.5 64.6 71.9 71.4 62.6 61.3 63.2 60.3 68.7 67.9 74.2 64.2 65.8
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 58.1 57.8 66.6 70.7 70.9 62.5 62.6 61.0 61.4 69.4 68.4 74.4 64.0 64.5
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 62.3 59.3 67.7 72.3 72.6 63.9 64.3 61.8 59.9 70.7 69.0 73.9 64.7 65.6
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 58.4 43.3 66.3 70.5 71.5 61.7 64.5 61.0 61.0 69.7 66.8 73.4 59.1 63.1
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 58.6 22.3 66.1 71.3 71.7 62.6 65.0 59.4 59.4 67.8 61.0 72.3 53.6 56.1
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 58.8 22.0 66.4 71.6 71.2 61.9 62.8 61.0 59.6 68.7 55.4 70.0 45.3 49.9
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 58.8 21.4 66.3 69.7 70.4 57.6 63.1 55.9 59.1 67.5 35.8 67.8 43.1 46.9
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 58.2 21.6 65.8 69.9 70.4 53.6 64.0 56.3 38.9 62.0 30.2 67.4 47.0 51.3
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 57.9 22.9 66.3 70.4 69.0 60.3 56.5 54.7 10.2 45.7 31.4 67.3 48.0 52.8
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 58.8 20.8 65.7 67.4 58.0 57.4 53.0 34.0 8.8 28.3 32.0 63.4 48.3 52.7
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 58.3 20.7 66.2 68.5 62.4 60.2 52.2 28.6 8.6 23.7 31.0 68.1 50.3 56.1
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 57.2 17.7 63.5 57.9 65.1 59.8 54.9 28.5 7.9 23.4 31.0 68.7 50.9 57.1
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 41.2 13.8 48.5 43.8 58.3 57.1 53.9 50.6 13.8 46.8 37.9 67.5 50.1 54.2
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 54.0 19.3 63.4 51.3 56.6 52.1 56.7 42.7 10.5 36.9 37.3 65.2 48.6 53.0
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 53.8 37.8 61.6 61.9 62.6 59.1 59.2 57.7 21.3 61.1 40.6 66.4 48.2 52.5
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 59.0 56.2 66.9 71.3 70.9 62.6 63.6 60.4 59.8 68.0 66.4 71.6 59.8 62.3
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 59.3 55.8 67.1 71.9 71.0 62.1 62.5 59.0 57.1 67.5 65.1 70.8 60.2 61.6
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 60.3 54.8 67.4 71.6 70.6 62.6 63.0 60.4 59.7 66.3 64.6 70.2 61.0 61.9
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 59.2 56.9 67.2 72.7 71.9 62.2 62.2 60.0 61.1 68.8 67.2 71.6 63.5 62.1
to SR-91 WB to SR-91 EB
Westbound Speeds Eastbound Speeds
I-15 Interchange I-15 Int. to
SR-71 Int.
SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Int. to
I-15 Int.
I-15 Interchange
SR-91 WB SR-91 EB
I-15 SB I-15 NB SR-91 WB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB SR-71 SB SR-91 EB
to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 WB to SR-71 NB to SR-91 EB to I-15 SB to I-15 EB
12:00 AM 1:00 AM 59.6 58.8 67.7 74.3 72.4 65.8 63.8 60.3 62.5 69.9 69.0 74.0 65.7 67.6
1:00 AM 2:00 AM 60.2 58.5 69.4 74.7 73.4 63.9 62.6 62.4 62.5 71.3 70.8 76.4 66.2 66.2
2:00 AM 3:00 AM 59.8 61.8 70.1 76.1 75.2 65.5 65.5 65.2 64.3 69.9 70.0 74.7 68.4 63.8
3:00 AM 4:00 AM 56.6 60.4 68.7 73.2 72.4 57.6 58.9 60.7 57.6 71.5 69.0 75.8 67.7 67.4
4:00 AM 5:00 AM 57.2 60.4 68.6 73.4 71.4 62.5 63.7 62.9 52.0 71.2 69.0 75.5 63.0 64.9
5:00 AM 6:00 AM 62.0 59.7 69.5 75.1 73.9 66.8 58.2 60.7 62.3 69.3 67.4 74.7 67.9 68.7
6:00 AM 7:00 AM 61.9 61.0 67.5 74.3 73.4 66.4 65.2 65.8 62.9 70.8 71.1 72.2 67.9 68.0
7:00 AM 8:00 AM 63.7 63.5 69.5 76.3 74.7 67.0 65.3 63.8 65.8 72.9 71.8 76.3 71.5 70.0
8:00 AM 9:00 AM 63.2 62.1 70.4 77.4 75.4 65.7 66.0 63.0 64.9 72.5 71.8 76.9 69.0 71.2
9:00 AM 10:00 AM 62.5 61.1 69.1 75.0 73.8 61.3 65.8 62.7 62.2 72.0 70.6 76.9 66.8 66.6
10:00 AM 11:00 AM 61.3 59.3 67.3 72.7 71.8 63.5 66.0 61.4 63.9 70.8 68.8 75.6 64.6 66.0
11:00 AM 12:00 PM 60.8 56.8 67.5 72.2 68.8 62.6 64.2 62.3 62.1 71.5 68.5 73.8 62.4 64.0
12:00 PM 1:00 PM 59.0 55.5 67.8 71.3 70.1 63.6 62.2 60.9 61.8 70.3 67.1 73.4 61.7 64.0
1:00 PM 2:00 PM 60.7 55.8 67.4 71.9 69.8 62.7 63.7 62.1 62.0 70.8 66.4 72.4 60.7 62.2
2:00 PM 3:00 PM 59.4 55.7 67.4 71.3 70.7 62.1 62.8 61.9 61.5 70.5 67.4 72.9 60.1 63.0
3:00 PM 4:00 PM 58.1 25.0 66.8 71.0 70.0 64.0 63.6 63.4 60.8 70.9 67.8 73.9 62.0 64.5
4:00 PM 5:00 PM 56.5 19.3 65.9 68.2 70.0 63.4 61.1 62.9 60.8 70.3 67.3 72.8 62.7 64.7
5:00 PM 6:00 PM 48.6 15.0 57.1 56.3 65.7 60.4 61.9 61.9 61.3 69.9 67.8 72.9 61.2 64.1
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 48.9 13.2 58.2 54.2 55.9 56.8 59.6 59.0 56.1 67.3 63.2 69.5 56.6 60.1
7:00 PM 8:00 PM 51.9 18.3 63.1 61.5 59.0 58.7 61.7 59.2 57.7 67.2 64.4 70.5 59.3 62.3
8:00 PM 9:00 PM 58.2 28.4 66.8 70.6 69.1 61.1 63.7 60.3 59.3 69.1 66.3 71.0 62.5 62.6
9:00 PM 10:00 PM 58.6 54.5 67.1 71.8 70.8 61.6 62.4 60.9 60.4 68.1 66.2 72.2 62.2 63.5
10:00 PM 11:00 PM 59.2 58.3 68.4 74.0 71.2 62.7 65.2 60.9 58.7 69.7 67.7 72.8 63.8 65.4
11:00 PM 12:00 AM 60.4 57.5 65.6 65.1 72.7 64.3 64.4 63.9 62.3 71.1 70.1 74.2 66.9 66.8
to SR-91 WB to SR-91 EB
Westbound Speeds Eastbound Speeds
I-15 Interchange I-15 Int. to
SR-71 Int.
SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Interchange SR-71 Int. to
I-15 Int.
I-15 Interchange
SR-91 WB SR-91 EB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.33
By adding together the total travel time recorded by BluFax from west of SR-71 to east of I-15,
the average speeds through the entire corridor could be found. Th ese are shown in Figure
3-37.
Figure 3-37
Average Speeds Between West of SR-71 and East of I-15
3.2.3 PeMS Speeds
Speed data were also available from the PeMS program. Detectors were located approximately
every half mile through the highway corridor. The average weekday speeds from the PeMS
program for November 8 – 11, 2010 are plotted in Table 3-13 and Table 3-14. Each line in the
tables represents a detector station, and each column represents a 15-minute increment. The
height of each line in the tables is proportional to the distance monitored by each detector. As
can be seen in the tables, congestion begins early in the morning, especially east of Maple
Street. The eastbound congestion does not become clear until about 10 AM.
In the afternoon, eastbound congestion begins to build starting at 2PM, and lasts until about
7:30. Congestion in the afternoon is concentrated between the SR-71 interchange and Lincoln
Avenue, and between I-15 and McKinley Street.
Eastbound Westbound
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12
:
0
0
A
M
2:0
0
A
M
4:0
0
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
10
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
0
0
A
M
Tr
a
f
f
i
c
V
o
l
u
m
e
Hour Start
Monday-Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.34
Table 3-13
Eastbound Weekday Speeds Recorded by PeMS on SR-91 (5AM – 10PM)
Location
5:0
0
A
M
5:1
5
A
M
5:3
0
A
M
5:4
5
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
6:1
5
A
M
6:3
0
A
M
6:4
5
A
M
7:0
0
A
M
7:1
5
A
M
7:3
0
A
M
7:4
5
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
8:1
5
A
M
8:3
0
A
M
8:4
5
A
M
9:0
0
A
M
9:1
5
A
M
9:3
0
A
M
9:4
5
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
10
:
1
5
A
M
10
:
3
0
A
M
10
:
4
5
A
M
11
:
0
0
A
M
11
:
1
5
A
M
11
:
3
0
A
M
11
:
4
5
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
1
5
P
M
12
:
3
0
P
M
12
:
4
5
P
M
1:0
0
P
M
1:1
5
P
M
1:3
0
P
M
1:4
5
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
2:1
5
P
M
2:3
0
P
M
2:4
5
P
M
3:0
0
P
M
3:1
5
P
M
3:3
0
P
M
3:4
5
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
4:1
5
P
M
4:3
0
P
M
4:4
5
P
M
5:0
0
P
M
5:1
5
P
M
5:3
0
P
M
5:4
5
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
6:1
5
P
M
6:3
0
P
M
6:4
5
P
M
7:0
0
P
M
7:1
5
P
M
7:3
0
P
M
7:4
5
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
8:1
5
P
M
8:3
0
P
M
8:4
5
P
M
9:0
0
P
M
9:1
5
P
M
9:3
0
P
M
9:4
5
P
M
67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 57 57 58 59 61 62 64 65 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69
68 68 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 61 56 57 56 57 52 53 54 58 53 52 45 45 47 54 59 61 63 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69
66 67 67 67 67 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 65 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 61 60 60 59 58 56 57 58 59 60 62 64 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 68 68 69 69 69
67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 57 57 58 59 61 62 64 65 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69
68 68 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 61 56 57 56 57 52 53 54 58 53 52 45 45 47 54 59 61 63 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69
67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 57 57 58 59 61 62 64 65 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69
SR-71 Interchange 68 68 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 61 56 57 56 57 52 53 54 58 53 52 45 45 47 54 59 61 63 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69
64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 64 64 64 64 64 65 64 64 64 64 65 64 64 63 57 54 54 55 55 54 52 52 50 50 50 49 47 50 49 50 51 50 53 55 56 57 57 59 61 62 62 63 65 65 65
66 66 66 66 67 67 65 65 67 68 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 66 65 65 67 67 66 62 52 44 44 46 44 43 39 38 35 35 35 32 28 33 31 35 36 35 41 46 48 50 51 55 60 63 63 65 69 69 68
64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 64 64 64 62 57 54 54 55 55 55 52 52 51 51 51 49 48 51 49 51 51 51 53 56 56 57 58 59 61 62 62 63 65 65 64
66 67 67 68 68 67 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 65 64 65 64 63 64 63 64 65 63 63 62 64 64 63 63 62 61 61 61 60 58 52 47 40 29 28 30 29 28 29 31 35 31 30 27 27 30 35 36 40 46 49 55 60 58 62 64 66 66 66 68 68 69
59 58 59 58 58 58 59 58 58 59 59 60 60 59 59 58 57 58 58 58 57 58 58 58 57 57 57 57 57 58 57 58 58 59 59 56 51 49 48 47 51 51 50 48 47 47 47 46 45 44 46 45 47 48 49 49 51 53 53 52 52 55 56 55 58 60 59 59
58 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 62 62 60 60 59 59 58 59 58 58 59 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 60 59 59 60 55 44 39 37 35 42 42 38 34 32 34 34 31 28 25 31 28 33 34 37 38 43 48 47 48 48 53 56 56 59 62 61 61
Maple Street 65 66 67 67 66 67 66 67 67 67 67 68 67 66 66 65 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 63 63 62 59 57 58 63 62 63 62 63 61 55 46 38 31 27 33 40 35 27 27 27 36 27 22 21 22 23 30 30 45 47 49 56 57 61 60 62 63 62 66 68 68 67
69 69 70 70 70 70 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70 70 69 69 70 69 69 69 70 70 69 70 69 69 67 67 70 71 70 70 68 67 66 59 54 49 45 45 48 48 43 36 36 43 38 28 24 23 20 25 29 42 50 52 57 58 64 64 65 64 65 68 69 70 69
63 65 66 66 64 64 65 66 66 65 66 66 66 64 64 63 62 61 63 62 58 61 61 61 60 57 58 55 58 59 61 62 60 61 58 55 45 40 35 31 34 40 37 32 29 30 34 26 22 20 20 19 24 28 42 46 49 51 55 60 57 57 57 59 63 66 66 66
59 59 59 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 58 59 59 58 59 60 60 60 62 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 63 62 63 62 61 58 56 54 52 53 55 54 51 50 51 51 49 48 48 48 49 50 52 58 60 60 60 61 63 62 62 61 62 64 66 66 65
48 40 36 37 36 36 35 35 34 36 39 39 40 40 42 45 45 48 51 54 60 62 67 67 67 68 67 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 65 66 65 65 66 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69
66 67 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 68 67 66 67 67 66 67 65 67 67 66 65 64 64 64 65 66 66 67 65 65 64 61 59 55 52 51 52 55 54 51 50 50 49 48 51 51 51 50 49 52 58 59 61 62 63 64 63 64 64 65 66 68 69 69
75 76 76 76 75 75 74 73 74 74 75 75 75 75 74 73 74 73 73 73 67 72 74 71 67 66 65 66 67 70 72 73 68 68 64 56 51 45 37 36 36 46 42 36 35 34 33 30 37 38 36 34 31 36 45 49 57 59 60 63 62 64 65 67 71 75 76 76
Main Street 67 67 66 65 63 62 61 60 60 57 57 56 55 53 50 49 48 49 49 50 46 47 49 46 45 43 44 45 46 46 45 45 44 45 45 45 40 39 41 40 39 41 40 37 36 30 26 25 28 30 25 28 31 40 44 46 44 47 49 48 48 51 53 56 57 61 63 64
67 68 68 68 68 68 67 68 68 67 68 68 67 63 61 60 61 65 65 66 64 64 65 64 64 62 63 63 63 64 64 64 63 64 64 62 57 56 60 60 59 61 60 56 50 40 33 33 36 40 34 36 43 54 58 61 58 62 61 59 59 61 63 64 64 67 68 68
74 73 74 73 73 74 73 74 73 73 73 72 72 70 69 68 68 69 69 69 69 68 69 69 69 70 69 68 69 70 69 69 70 68 67 66 66 67 68 68 68 68 67 64 59 50 42 44 45 51 41 44 52 65 68 69 70 71 71 71 71 72 73 73 73 73 73 73
71 71 71 70 70 69 69 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 67 67 67 68 67 66 67 67 67 66 67 66 66 66 65 65 66 66 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 61 60 55 53 47 41 33 33 35 36 38 35 38 47 52 60 64 64 64 65 65 66 66 66 66 66 67 67 67
70 71 73 74 74 74 73 72 73 72 72 72 73 72 71 70 69 70 68 69 68 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 65 67 67 68 66 67 68 66 67 67 67 62 62 51 50 35 28 26 28 31 33 32 29 39 47 51 65 70 71 70 71 71 70 71 71 70 71 71 71 72
66 67 68 69 69 69 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 62 63 63 64 62 60 61 59 64 63 62 58 58 49 51 35 28 25 28 29 33 32 34 40 46 49 60 65 65 65 66 66 66 66 67 66 67 67 68 68
66 66 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 61 60 67 69 68 68 68 67 67 66 67 66 66 66 67 67 66 66 65 64 65 66 66 57 56 57 52 59 65 58 39 37 39 36 25 24 23 25 25 30 26 24 27 35 37 51 65 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 67 68 68 68
McKinley Street 58 55 55 56 56 57 57 58 56 52 50 56 58 57 55 56 55 55 54 54 54 53 54 54 54 54 54 53 53 54 54 53 47 46 48 44 48 53 47 33 33 36 30 22 21 20 23 23 27 24 22 24 29 31 43 53 54 55 54 56 56 56 56 55 55 56 56 55
68 69 68 69 69 68 68 65 66 63 64 67 68 68 68 68 68 69 68 68 68 68 69 68 68 69 69 68 68 69 68 67 67 64 64 63 66 67 65 59 60 60 53 47 49 49 48 47 53 54 55 55 55 57 60 64 65 65 65 66 66 68 68 68 69 69 69 70
62 62 62 63 62 62 62 60 60 58 56 56 62 62 61 62 60 60 60 60 60 61 60 61 62 60 61 60 60 61 61 60 60 60 59 60 61 61 61 59 59 61 60 60 60 59 58 58 57 57 56 57 57 58 59 60 61 60 61 61 60 60 61 60 60 60 61 61
Orange County Line
to SR-71
SR-71 to Maple
Street Interchange
Maple Street
Interchange to Main
Street Interchange
Main Street
Interchange to
McKinley Street
Interchange; Through
I-15 Interchange
East of McKinley
Street
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Existing Conditions
May 9, 2012
3.35
Table 3-14
Westbound Weekday Speeds Recorded by PeMS on SR-91 (5AM – 10PM)
Location
5:0
0
A
M
5:1
5
A
M
5:3
0
A
M
5:4
5
A
M
6:0
0
A
M
6:1
5
A
M
6:3
0
A
M
6:4
5
A
M
7:0
0
A
M
7:1
5
A
M
7:3
0
A
M
7:4
5
A
M
8:0
0
A
M
8:1
5
A
M
8:3
0
A
M
8:4
5
A
M
9:0
0
A
M
9:1
5
A
M
9:3
0
A
M
9:4
5
A
M
10
:
0
0
A
M
10
:
1
5
A
M
10
:
3
0
A
M
10
:
4
5
A
M
11
:
0
0
A
M
11
:
1
5
A
M
11
:
3
0
A
M
11
:
4
5
A
M
12
:
0
0
P
M
12
:
1
5
P
M
12
:
3
0
P
M
12
:
4
5
P
M
1:0
0
P
M
1:1
5
P
M
1:3
0
P
M
1:4
5
P
M
2:0
0
P
M
2:1
5
P
M
2:3
0
P
M
2:4
5
P
M
3:0
0
P
M
3:1
5
P
M
3:3
0
P
M
3:4
5
P
M
4:0
0
P
M
4:1
5
P
M
4:3
0
P
M
4:4
5
P
M
5:0
0
P
M
5:1
5
P
M
5:3
0
P
M
5:4
5
P
M
6:0
0
P
M
6:1
5
P
M
6:3
0
P
M
6:4
5
P
M
7:0
0
P
M
7:1
5
P
M
7:3
0
P
M
7:4
5
P
M
8:0
0
P
M
8:1
5
P
M
8:3
0
P
M
8:4
5
P
M
9:0
0
P
M
9:1
5
P
M
9:3
0
P
M
9:4
5
P
M
45 36 29 36 51 53 53 51 59 46 43 42 54 62 56 55 56 63 65 66 65 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 58 57 64 64 66 67 67 67 67 67 59 57 56 50 42 31 28 27 38 38 25 23 21 23 32 41 53 56 61 66 67 67 67 68 68 66 67 67 67 68
43 36 28 30 49 54 51 45 48 35 39 43 48 53 55 56 57 58 64 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 65 57 53 58 58 64 67 67 67 68 67 58 56 56 48 41 28 26 25 28 30 27 25 23 24 34 41 52 57 61 66 68 63 67 68 68 67 68 68 67 68
56 48 32 34 44 52 47 45 40 37 38 46 53 55 57 56 58 59 63 65 65 65 64 65 65 65 65 61 58 62 61 63 64 64 63 64 65 64 63 62 63 62 60 59 58 55 52 51 49 47 43 46 51 55 58 61 62 64 65 65 65 66 67 66 67 66 67 67
McKinley Street 50 34 30 33 30 25 24 21 20 20 21 31 33 27 28 33 43 45 52 55 55 56 55 56 55 56 54 54 55 56 57 56 56 57 57 57 58 57 57 57 57 58 58 57 55 49 46 46 45 50 51 52 52 52 53 54 55 55 56 55 55 56 56 56 56 57 57 57
50 33 27 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 36 42 51 60 63 63 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 60 59 61 61 61 61 60 61 62 62 62 62 61 60 61 60 61 61 61 61 62 62 62 64 64 65 66 66 66 66 67 67 66 67 68
42 35 36 37 36 35 35 36 36 37 37 36 36 37 38 38 40 42 49 53 59 61 61 61 60 60 59 61 61 60 60 54 52 52 52 57 59 60 61 60 60 59 60 59 60 59 58 60 60 61 61 62 62 64 63 63 63 66 68 69 68 68 69 68 68 66 65 66
Main Street 34 22 21 23 22 22 22 21 21 22 24 22 23 23 25 27 29 33 37 45 52 57 61 61 60 61 60 61 62 61 54 50 50 50 51 58 62 62 62 62 62 61 63 64 63 63 62 61 63 64 64 65 63 64 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 65 65 64 65 64
37 29 25 26 25 24 23 22 22 24 26 24 24 26 26 29 31 34 38 44 50 56 59 60 59 59 59 60 60 59 52 49 49 50 50 56 60 61 61 61 61 60 62 63 62 63 62 61 62 62 62 63 62 62 63 63 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 63 63 62 63 61
34 27 23 22 20 19 19 19 19 21 22 20 21 22 24 25 27 30 33 35 38 39 41 41 41 40 39 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 41 41 41 42 42 43 42 41 42 43 44 44 43 43 43 44 44 44 43 43 42 40 40 40 40 39 38 39 39 40 39 39 38 37
56 53 51 48 46 45 44 44 44 46 48 46 48 48 49 50 52 54 56 57 59 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 59 59 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
55 48 46 40 34 31 29 29 30 35 39 34 38 40 40 42 46 50 52 56 60 61 62 61 61 62 61 62 62 61 62 62 62 64 64 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 62 61 62 63 64 64 64 65 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 66
68 65 58 46 37 36 33 34 34 41 42 37 43 46 48 49 56 58 61 67 73 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 75 76 75 75 75 76 75 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77
61 57 52 44 37 36 34 34 35 41 43 38 42 44 46 46 51 53 55 60 67 68 69 70 69 70 69 70 69 69 70 70 70 70 69 70 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 68 68 67 67 67 68 69 68 69 69 70 70 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71
62 60 56 51 48 48 46 47 48 51 51 50 51 53 53 54 56 58 58 61 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 65 66 65 66 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 66 66 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66
55 52 43 33 30 31 27 28 31 38 35 34 35 40 41 42 45 48 47 52 56 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 58 59 58 58 59 59 59 58 58 59 60 59 59 60 62 61 60 60 60 60 60 61 62 61 61 61 61 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 62 61 61 61 61
64 62 58 54 52 53 52 52 55 57 56 57 57 58 60 60 60 61 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 65 66 66 65 66 66 66 66 65 66 66 66 66 66 65 65
66 64 55 49 46 50 48 48 55 58 56 60 59 60 64 64 63 64 67 70 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 70 71 71 71 71 71 70 70 71 71 71 70 71 71 70 71 70 71 69 69 70 69 70 70 70 71 71 71 72 73 72 73 72 72 73 73 73 73 72 73
63 63 59 55 55 56 55 56 59 60 59 61 60 61 63 63 62 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 64 64 65 64 64 65 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 65 66 66 66 66 66 66 66
67 67 67 68 67 67 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 64 65 64 65 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 57 57 59 60 61 63 64 66 66 67 67 68 69 69 69 69 69 70 70
SR-71 Interchange 66 67 67 67 67 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 65 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 61 60 60 59 58 56 57 58 59 60 62 64 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 68 68 69 69 69
67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 57 57 58 59 61 62 64 65 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69
60 51 43 37 33 27 27 23 22 24 27 33 39 43 45 53 58 58 58 59 60 62 64 65 66 66 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 67 67 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 68 67 67 67 66 66 66 66 67 67 69 70 71 71 71 71 72 72 72 73 72 72 72 72
67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 59 57 57 58 59 61 62 64 65 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69
60 51 43 37 33 27 27 23 22 24 27 33 39 43 45 53 58 58 58 59 60 62 64 65 66 66 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 67 67 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 68 67 67 67 66 66 66 66 67 67 69 70 71 71 71 71 72 72 72 73 72 72 72 72
East of McKinley
Street
McKinley Street
Interchange to Main
Street Interchange;
Through I-15
Interchange
Main Street
Interchange to Maple
Street Interchange
Maple Street
Interchange to SR-71
SR-71 to Orange
County Line
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
4.1
4.0 SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
This section contains detailed forecasts and supporting commentary on socioeconomic trends
in the six counties constituting the “Study Area” between 2010 and 2035 (the Forecast Period).
The Study Area consists of Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and
Imperial counties as designated by the RivTAM/TransCAD traffic model. The forecast data
developed by Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB Consult) are referred to throughout this section as the
“PB Forecasts” or “Base Case” forecasts.
4.1 SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS
Employment1 in the Study Area is forecast to grow by 2.0 million jobs, from 7.1 to 9.1 million
during the Forecast Period, a compound annual growth rate of 0.98%. Households2 in the
Study Area will grow by 1.2 million over the Forecast Period from 5.9 to 7.0 million, a 0.73%
compound annual growth rate. Housing growth will closely track job growth region -wide,
although constraints on housing production in certain high cost areas, including many parts of
Orange County, will perpetuate localized jobs/housing imbalances. For instance, the relatively
high cost of living in Orange County has caused many people with jobs there to seek lower cost
housing options in places such as the Inland Empire 3. This relationship between Orange
County and the Inland Empire, which results in the strong traffic demand in the SR 91 corridor,
has developed over time and is expected to remain in the long -term. Table 4-1 presents Study
Area employment and household forecasts.
Table 4-1
PB Study Area Employment and Household Forecast (Thousands)
1 “Employment, unless otherwise stated, refers to a comprehensive measure of non0farm at place wage and salary
jobs plus self employed (including proprietorships) and government workers.
2 “Households,” unless otherwise stated, refers to occupied dwelling units.
3 The “Inland Empire” is, generally, the western portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, including but not
limited to the cities of Corona, Chino, Ontario, Riverside, and San Bernardino.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 - 2035
Employment
Total Employment 7,133 7,601 8,061 8,460 8,799 9,114
Incremental Growth 468 460 398 339 315 1,980
Average Annual Growth 94 92 80 68 63 79
CAGR [1] 1.28%1.18%0.97%0.79%0.71%0.98%
Households
Total Households 5,880 6,082 6,344 6,594 6,825 7,044
Incremental Growth 202 262 250 231 219 1,165
Average Annual Growth 40 52 50 46 44 47
CAGR 0.68%0.85%0.78%0.69%0.63%0.73%
[1] Compound Annual Growth Rate
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.2
4.1.1 Study Area Employment Summary
The California Economic Development Department (EDD) reports that the Study Area added
approximately 56,400 jobs annually (on average) between 1990 and 2007.4 Between 2007 and
2009, the Study Area lost approximately 725,000 jobs, equating to around 10% of its total job
base, bringing the total number of jobs down to approximately 7.1 million, a level not seen
since 1999.
The Base Case forecasts includes 79,200 new jobs per year added to the Study Area during the
Forecast Period, a level of average long-term growth that is greater than that experienced
before the 2008 recession. This growth is due in part to the recovery f rom the 2008 recession,
but also will results from the diversity and expected continued growth of the various urban
cores within the Study Area. Figure 4-1 shows historical Study Area employment and the Base
Case employment forecast. The black line is the linear trend line of the historical data series.
The figure shows that the Base Case forecast is not expected to “catch up” with the historical
trend line within the Forecast Period.
Figure 4-1
Historical and Base Case Employment Frorecasts
Employment growth between 2010 and 2015 is forecast to be slower than the recovery periods
that followed comparable recessions in the past due, in large part, to the following three
characteristics of the 2008 recession;
4 California Employment Development Department Labor Market Information Division.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.3
(i) The negative impacts that the recession has had on the credit markets, which will
constrain business lending (especially for small businesses) in the short -term,
(ii) Construction activity, which is typically one of the leading growth sectors in economic
recovery periods, is expected to be slow for several years as markets stabilize and
vacant residential and non-residential properties are absorbed, and
(iii) The general trend of businesses doing more with less, including sharing work space and
working from home, investments in computer technology and automation to reduce the
number of workers, and outsourcing to reduce overhead and increase profits.
The recovery from the 2008 recession is forecast to be anemic in the short -term, but will take
hold between 2012 and 2014 when a period of stronger job growth is expected to begin and be
sustained through 2020.
In the longer-term, the forecasts reflect;
(i) the diverse mix of employment in the Study Area,
(ii) a continuing trend of higher growth in service and retail employment,
(iii) continuing decreases in certain manufacturing categories, some of which are
migrating within the Study Area to less expensive operating environments such as
the Inland Empire, and
(iv) a lower level of technical service jobs that are expected to continue moving off
shore.
The general slowing of job growth in the Study Area, e specially after 2025, represents the
maturing of the remaining high growth areas, while those areas of the Study Area that are
currently mature, such as Los Angeles County, will continue to grow only through
redevelopment to higher densities.
Within the Study Area, the most significant employment growth is expected in the Inland
Empire where Riverside and San Bernardino counties’ employment is expected to grow at
average annual rates of 2.14% and 1.61% respectively over the Forecast Period. Inland Empir e
job growth will result from two broad trends;
(i) the need for nearby “population serving” jobs to serve large numbers of new
residents, and
(ii) the high cost of doing business in established Orange and Los Angeles county
locations.
Transportation and trade related jobs have for years accounted for much of the job growth in
the Inland Empire as many distribution facilities serving Ontario International Airport and the
ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles are located there. This indust ry will continue to be a
significant contributor to Inland Empire job growth though changes to international shipping
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.4
routes, specifically those related to Panama Canal expansion efforts will temper growth in the
long-term.
4.1.2 Study Area Household Summary
Between 1990 and 2005, the Study Area added just over 50,000 new households per year on
average. This trend is expected to continue in the future, as reflected in the approximately
46,600 annual households expected to be added during the Forecast Period.
The PB forecast takes into consideration the current inventory of homes for sale, especially
those in lower price point markets, which are expected to remain unsold until prices moderate
and credit is extended to buyers. Growth during the 2010 to 2015 period is expected to be
lower than the 2015 to 2020 period in light of the slow job recovery outlined above. Household
growth will lag job growth between 2010 and 2015 as unemployed workers already
represented in household numbers begin to find jobs.
Overall, household formations reflect a higher number of employed persons per household in
Orange and Los Angeles counties due to the higher proportion of dual income earning
households and the daily in-migration of workers from surrounding counties. As noted in
Figure 4-2, the Study Area is expected to keep pace with the historical trend between 2010 and
2035 despite starting from a slightly lower base. During the Forecast Period, the Study Area will
add 1.7 new jobs per household, driving the overall jobs per household ratio up from 1.2 in
2010 to 1.3 in 2035.
Figure 4-2
Historical and Base Case Household Forecasts
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.5
While residential growth will continue to occur in higher priced areas like Orange County, the
bulk of household formations will occur in the western portions of the Inland Empire where
price points are lower than most Orange and Los Angeles county markets and reasonable
commutes to Orange and Los Angeles county job centers remain possible. In the long-term, the
majority of residential growth in Orange and Los Angeles counties will be through
redevelopment.
4.2 FORECAST METHODOLOGY
The socioeconomic forecasts developed by PB for the Riverside County Transportation Analysis
Model (RivTAM) – defined Study Area (which includes the entirety of Ventura, Los Angeles,
Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Imperial counties) have specific content and
geographical characteristics that are outlined in this section. The Study Area forecast discussed
above is the aggregation of 5,531 individual traffic analysis zone (TAZ) forecasts 5. As such the
disaggregated TAZ forecasts can be aggregated by count y, city or Focus Area to aid in the
analysis. The term “Focus Areas” refers to aggregations of TAZs assembled by PB that
represent major projects or development areas that received additional attention in the
modeling process due to their expected impact on SR 91 Express Lane traffic. Figure 4-3 is a
map of the Study Area, showing the six counties represented. Figure 4-4 shows a blow-up of
the SR 91 Corridor and major connectors.
Figure 4-3
Map of the Study Area
5 Traffic analysis zones are geographical areas, subsets of Census Tracts, established based on traffic levels and
generally bound by roadways.
California
San Bernardino
County
Riverside County
Imperial
County
Orange
County
Los Angeles
County
Ventura
County
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.6
Figure 4-4
Map of SR-91 Corridor
The forecast provides the socioeconomic inputs for 2,243 TAZs in Los Angeles County, 666 TAZs
in Orange County, 1,900 TAZs in Riverside County, 402 TAZs in San Bernadino County, and 320
TAZs in Ventura and Imperial Counties. Together, the area comprising these 5,531 TAZs is
referred to as the “Study Area” and is represented by the counties shaded in Figure 4-3.
From the standpoint of traffic on SR 91, the most important portion of the Study Area is the
area illustrated in Figure 4-5. The current and planned developments in these areas were given
the most thorough review by the team. Areas that are far away from the SR 91 corridor, such
as Ventura and Imperial counties were not reviewed with great detail and are not included in
certain analyses detailed in this report.
San Bernardino County
Riverside County
Orange County
Los Angeles County
SR
-24
1
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.7
Figure 4-5
Area of Focus for Socioeconomic Analysis
The specific analytical steps taken to complete the Base Case Forecasts were:
Reviewed Western Riverside County Council of Governments (WRCOG), Center for
Demographic Research (CDR) Orange County Projections (OCP), Southern California
Association of Governments (SCAG), and other regional planning agency forecasts to
understand how each of those agencies expect long-term growth to occur.
Incorporated the WRCOG (RivTAM/TransCAD) TAZ structure and 52 model parameters
into the PB socioeconomic forecasting model and performed tests to ensure that
socioeconomic model outputs flow seamlessly into the traffic model.
Reviewed economic reports and forecasts from the Los Angeles Economic Development
Corporation (LAEDC), UCLA Anderson School, Chapman University, California State
RCTC Express
Lanes
SR-91
I-15
OCTA Express
Lanes
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.8
University (Fullerton), California Department of Finance, IHS Global Insight, Woods &
Poole Economics, and other third party data sources to understand current National,
State, and local trends in critical trip production and attraction variables of households
and at-place employment.
Identified shifts in county and small-area development patterns that have occurred
since the last adopted revisions of the WRCOG, OCP, and SCAG forecasts.
Established 2010 values for the 52 RivTAM/TransCAD model parameters at the TAZ level
for use by Stantec in calibrating the traffic model.
Conducted interviews with local land owners, developers, real estate brokers, planning
agencies and associations, and real estate development advisors. This interview
program guided the land use team in uncovering issues that would impact future
development in the Study Area, and confirmed focus area development potential.
Conducted field investigations of critical Focus Areas to update information on potential
development capacity, entitlements, inventories, and constraints to development.
These investigations supported adjustments to TAZ level allocations of new jobs and
households.
Developed Study Area, county and Focus Area employment and household growth rates
for the Forecast Period based on a review of historical trends from the Califo rnia
Employment Development Department, national and regional forecasts, economic
reports, and first-hand information gathered through the interview process.
Identified candidate areas for redevelopment and infill development at higher densities
and allocated development activity accordingly in later forecast years.
Using information generated through the preceding steps, prepared a Base Case
forecast for the critical variables (Households and Jobs) at the Study Area, county, Focus
Area, and TAZ levels. Figure 4-6 presents an overview of the PB land use model.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.9
Figure 4-6
Illustration of the PB Land Use Forecast Model Methodology
The Base Case forecast assumes no major additions to the highway system in Orange County,
specifically the southern extension of the Foothill Transportation Corridor. Additionally, no
major east-west corridor between Orange County and the Inland Empire, such as an elevated
highway in the SR 91 corridor or tunnel of similar capacity, is assumed to be built before 2035.
The absence of these facilities has a dampening effect on the growth of new jobs and
households in certain parts of the Study Area.
The Base Case does assume RCTC and OCTA approved improvements to SR 91 as well as other
network improvements included in the Stantec traffic model.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.10
As stated above, the Base Case Forecast has been developed using the RivTAM/TransCAD
model structure and provides inputs to the traffic model for all 52 socioeconomic parameters
and 5,531 TAZs. Some forecast parameters are directly related to, and were therefore derived
from, the primary forecast parameters (total at-place employment and households) while
others were adopted from the SCAG base data. Table 4-2 through Table 4-7present each
variable and the methodology used to determine its ultimate value.
Table 4-2
Forecast Methodology for Population Variables
Table 4-3
Forecast Methodology for Household Variables
Table 4-4
Forecast Methodology for Scholl Enrolement
Population Variables (7)Forecast Methodology
Total Population = Residential population + group quarter population
Group Quarter Population = Values adopted from SCAG/WRCOG data
Residential Population = Forecast of total households * household size
Population by Age (4 Categories)= Total population * % by age category adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
Household Variables (17)Forecast Methodology
Total Number of Households = total households Forecast by PB
Households by Household Size (4 Categories)= total households * share of households by category adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
Households by Age of Household Head (4
Categories)
= total households * share of households by category adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
Households by Number of Workers (4 Categories)= total households * share of households by category adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
Households by Household Income (4 Variables)= total households * share of households by category adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
School Enrollment (2)Forecast Methodology
K-12 School Enrollment = % of population ages 5-17 enrolled in K-12 adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data * new age 5-17 population
College / University Enrollment = % of population ages 18-24 enrolled in college adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data * new age 18-24 population
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.11
Table 4-5
Forecast Methodology for Household Income
Table 4-6
Forecast Methodology for Workers
Table 4-7
Forecast Methodology for Employment Variables
4.3 HISTORICAL DATA AND TRENDS IN THE STUDY AREA
4.3.1 Historical Study Area Employment Trends
Employment in the Study Area grew from 6.9 million in 1990 to 7.1 million in 2010,
corresponding to an average of 12,700 new jobs per year and a compound annual growth rate
of 0.2%. This historical period takes into account the 2008 recession without the pending
recovery and therefore paints a somewhat modest picture of the Study Area’s employment
growth and relative performance over the past 20 years. Some portions of the Study Area,
specifically Los Angeles County and parts of Orange County, are indeed mature job markets that
have experienced little growth in recent history; but overall, the Study Area has exhibited
resiliency in post recessionary periods, the redevelopment of obsolete properties in mature
areas, and steady growth in emerging submarkets.
Household Income (5)Forecast Methodology
Median Household Income = Real median household income growth factor as validated by third
party forecasts
Median Household Income by Income Categories
(4 Categories)
= population growth * share of population adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
Workers (4)Forecast Methodology
Total Workers = total workers adopted from SCAG/WRCOG data and adjusted to
conform with long-term employment Forecast trends
Workers by Earnings (3 Categories)= total workers * share of workers in each earnings category adopted
from SCAG/WRCOG data
Employment Variables (17)Forecast Methodology
Total Employment = total employment Forecast by PB
Employment by Industry (13 Categories)= total employment * share of employment by industry adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
Employment by Wage (3 Categories)= total employment * share of employment by category adopted from
SCAG/WRCOG data
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.12
Removing the 2005 to 2010 period from the historical averages shows a better representation
of the Study Area’s performance in normal economic times. Between 1990 and 2005, the Study
Average grew by about 56,200 jobs per year with the strongest growth in the 1995 to 2000 time
period when the economy was recovering from a recession that occurred in the early 1990s.
Table 4-8 shows that the vast majority of job growth during this time period occurred in the
Inland Empire and Orange County. Los Angeles County, the most mature county in the Study
Area, remained relatively steady at about 4.4 million jobs during this period despite significant
job losses during the recessionary period of 1990 to 1995. The smaller counties of Ventura and
Imperial grew at moderate rates, though their distant locations and relatively small size make
them somewhat irrelevant to traffic levels in the SR 91 corridor.
Table 4-8
Total Employment Growth by County, 1990 – 2010
Source: California Employment Development Department / Labor Market Information Division Annual Averages, PB Analysis. Data adjusted for
self employed persons.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 - 2010
Los Angeles 4,494,000 4,066,000 4,418,000 4,366,000 4,079,000
Average Annual Growth -85,600 70,400 -10,400 -57,400 -20,750
CAGR -2.00%1.70%-0.20%-1.40%-0.50%
Orange 1,266,000 1,244,000 1,500,000 1,607,000 1,461,000
Average Annual Growth -4,400 51,200 21,400 -29,200 9,750
CAGR -0.30%3.80%1.40%-1.90%0.70%
Riverside 350,000 387,000 508,000 645,000 577,000
Average Annual Growth 7,400 24,200 27,400 -13,600 11,350
CAGR 2.00%5.60%4.90%-2.20%2.50%
San Bernardino 447,000 483,000 588,000 700,000 633,000
Average Annual Growth 7,200 21,000 22,400 -13,400 9,300
CAGR 1.60%4.00%3.50%-2.00%1.80%
Ventura 270,000 278,000 321,000 343,000 321,000
Average Annual Growth 1,600 8,600 4,400 -4,400 2,550
CAGR 0.60%2.90%1.30%-1.30%0.90%
Imperial 49,000 53,000 55,000 58,000 59,000
Average Annual Growth 800 400 600 200 500
CAGR 1.60%0.70%1.10%0.30%0.90%
Study Area Total 6,876,000 6,511,000 7,390,000 7,719,000 7,130,000
Average Annual Growth -73,000 175,800 65,800 -117,800 12,700
CAGR -1.10%2.60%0.90%-1.60%0.20%
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.13
Figure 4-7
Employment Growth by County, Change from 1990 Value
While job growth in the SR 91 corridor has been healthy for the past 20 years, Orange County
and the Inland Empire have very different employment compositions which stem from
fundamental characteristics of each area and their respective stages of the socioeconomic
lifecycle.
The coastal areas make Orange County one of the most sought after places to live in Southern
California, despite the relatively high cost. With many business owners and managers wishing
to work near where they live, coupled with the presence of Santa Ana Airport (aka the John
Wayne Airport), certain industry sectors have clustered around central and coa stal Orange
County, including many business services, financial services, education and health services, and
leisure and hospitality services. Figure 4-8 shows that these four industries grew by 226,000
jobs between 1990 and 2005, representing over 70% of job growth in Orange County.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
f
r
o
m
1
9
9
0
V
a
l
u
e
Year
Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino
Ventura Imperial Study Area Total
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.14
Figure 4-8
Orange County Job Growth by Industry, 1990 – 2005
The Inland Empire experienced more diverse job growth between 1990 and 2005, but the
strongest growth was focused in population serving employment. The four fastest growing job
sectors between 1990 and 2005 in Riverside and San Bernardino counties (togeth er) were
professional and business services, government, retail trade, and construction, though these
only accounted for 54% of total job growth over the 1990 to 2005 period. Manufacturing and
transportation-related industries also grew significantly. These six industry groups are expected
to experience the most growth over the Forecast Period as the populations of Riverside and San
Bernardino counties continue to grow and generate demand for retail and service jobs, and
companies requiring large floor plates, such as distributers and manufacturers, seek less
expensive locations that are still within reasonable proximity to the port facilities in Los Angeles
County. Figure 4-9 shows the Inland Empire industry growth distribution between 1990 and
2005. Notable is that it has more relatively equally sized pie pieces, compared to the Orange
County chart above, which is dominated by a few large pie pieces.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.15
Figure 4-9
Riverside and San Bernardino County Job Growth by Industry, 1990 – 2005
Understanding employment growth within Orange County and the Inland Empire betw een 1990
and 2005 is certainly important and will impact the magnitude and composition of growth
programmed into the long-term forecasts. Equally important to the forecast, though more
relevant to the short-term outlook, is how these industries were eroded during the 2008
recession.
The 2008 recession was focused in real estate related industries but had far reaching impacts
that were slightly different in the Inland Empire than in Orange County because of the
industries represented in each, as outlined above. Table 4-9 shows annual job gains and losses
by industry in Orange County between 2005 and 2010. The table is color -coded green, yellow
and red to show when employment within a given industry grew, stayed the same, or declined,
respectively, when compared to the previous year. For instance, almost every industry grew in
2005 (with the exception of Mining & Logging), but in 2006, Transportation , Warehousing, &
Utilities; Information; Financial Activities; and Other Service all began to decline. In 2007, 2008,
and 2009, the number of red colored cells dominates, showing the ripple effect of the
contraction that initiated with the residential rea l estate market collapse.
The most significant job losses in Orange County between 2007 and 2010 were in the
construction (-41,000 jobs), manufacturing (-31,000 jobs), retail trade (-22,000 jobs), financial
activities (25,000 jobs), and professional and business services (-37,000 jobs). These five
industries accounted for 92% of job losses in Orange County during this time period.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.16
Table 4-9
Orange County Employment by Industry
Table 4-10 shows the same information and table format for Riverside and San Bernardino
counties combined. The most significant job losses between 2007 and 2010 were in th e
construction (-59,000 jobs), manufacturing (-36,000 jobs), retail trade (-28,000 jobs),
professional and business services (-23,000 jobs), and leisure & hospitality (-14,000 jobs)
industires. These five industries accounted for 86% of job losses in Rive rside and San
Bernardino counties during this time period.
Table 4-10
Riverside and San Bernardino County Employment by Industry
Industry / Sector 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth % Growth
Total Farm 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 -1,000 -20.00%
Mining & Logging 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 -0.00%
Construction 107,000 114,000 111,000 98,000 79,000 70,000 -41,000 -36.90%
Manufacturing 196,000 196,000 194,000 187,000 166,000 163,000 -31,000 -16.00%
Wholesale Trade 89,000 90,000 93,000 93,000 86,000 85,000 -8,000 -8.60%
Retail Trade 170,000 173,000 173,000 167,000 152,000 151,000 -22,000 -12.70%
Trans., Warehsng., Util. 31,000 30,000 31,000 31,000 30,000 30,000 -1,000 -3.20%
Information 35,000 34,000 34,000 32,000 29,000 27,000 -7,000 -20.60%
Financial Activities 149,000 148,000 137,000 121,000 113,000 112,000 -25,000 -18.20%
Profess. & Buss. Services 284,000 295,000 294,000 286,000 257,000 257,000 -37,000 -12.60%
Edu. & Health Services 143,000 148,000 153,000 162,000 162,000 164,000 11,000 7.20%
Leisure & Hospitality 177,000 182,000 186,000 189,000 182,000 189,000 3,000 1.60%
Other Services 52,000 51,000 51,000 50,000 46,000 46,000 -5,000 -9.80%
Government 167,000 168,000 171,000 173,000 169,000 165,000 -6,000 -3.50%
Total Employment 1,607,000 1,636,000 1,634,000 1,595,000 1,476,000 1,464,000 -170,000 -10.40%
2007 - 2010
Industry / Sector 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth % Growth
Total Farm 20,000 18,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 17,000 -1,000 -5.60%
Mining & Logging 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 -0.00%
Construction 134,000 139,000 122,000 99,000 73,000 63,000 -59,000 -48.40%
Manufacturing 131,000 134,000 128,000 116,000 96,000 92,000 -36,000 -28.10%
Wholesale Trade 54,000 58,000 62,000 58,000 52,000 50,000 -12,000 -19.40%
Retail Trade 179,000 187,000 191,000 182,000 167,000 163,000 -28,000 -14.70%
Trans., Warehsng., Util. 65,000 69,000 75,000 76,000 72,000 71,000 -4,000 -5.30%
Information 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 -0.00%
Financial Activities 53,000 56,000 54,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 -8,000 -14.80%
Profess. & Buss. Services 144,000 154,000 158,000 149,000 138,000 135,000 -23,000 -14.60%
Edu. & Health Services 130,000 132,000 138,000 142,000 144,000 144,000 6,000 4.30%
Leisure & Hospitality 133,000 139,000 144,000 142,000 133,000 130,000 -14,000 -9.70%
Other Services 45,000 46,000 45,000 44,000 40,000 39,000 -6,000 -13.30%
Government 239,000 241,000 244,000 249,000 247,000 243,000 -1,000 -0.40%
Total Employment 1,345,000 1,391,000 1,397,000 1,342,000 1,244,000 1,211,000 -186,000 -13.30%
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Comparing Table 4-9 and Table 4-10 reveals several key characteristics of each area. First, the
greatest losses in both areas were in the construction industry. While this is not surprising
given the root of the recession, the construction industry in Riverside and San Bernardino
counties was much more severely hit, being virtually cut in half. This illustrates the fervor of
speculative residential development that was occurring in that area during the mid 2000s.
Orange County also lost a significant portion of its construction employme nt as residential and
commercial development came to a halt in late 2007.
As noted above, across the board construction employment declines were expected due to the
nature of the 2008 recession. Looking at the next hardest hit industries in Orange Coun ty
compared to Riverside and San Bernardino counties reveals the true difference between each
individual micro-economy. Orange County lost 63,000 jobs in the business & professional and
financial services industries combined, illustrating again that many higher paying jobs housed in
office space were located and lost there. Many of these jobs were related to the residential
real estate market collapse but also to general business and investment services and linked to
the general business climate of the region.
Conversely, the highest non-construction losses in Riverside and San Bernardino counties were
in manufacturing and wholesale trade (combined to account for 48,000 lost jobs). These jobs
are linked nationally and internationally and are perhaps less dependent on the regional
recovery and more associated with national consumption trends and recovery.
Another difference between the two areas, which is apparent from the color coding of Table
4-9 and Table 4-10, is that in Orange County, the 2008 recession began to take hold in 200 6 and
then spread to the various industries in 2007 and 2008. The Inland Empire counties began to
lose jobs about one year later, and when job losses began, they were realized across almost
every industry segment at the same time. This suggests that more Inland Empire jobs were
directly linked to the real estate industry, which stopped growing abruptly in 2007 both locally
and nationally. When development stopped, the ripple effect in the Inland Empire was
immediate. It also suggests that the recovery will take hold in Orange County one to two years
sooner than the Inland Empire, which was also the opinion of several of the industry
professionals interviewed by the PB research team.
4.3.2 Historical Study Area Household Trends
Historical residential building permit data from between 1995 and 2010 is shown in Table 4-11.
Between 1995 and 2010 the Study Area averaged approximately 52,000 residential units per
year with 47% of this building occurring in the Inland Empire counties, 30% in Los Angeles
County, 16% in Orange County, and the remaining construction occurring in Ventura and
Imperial counties.
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Residential permit issuance grew significantly each year between 1995 and 2004, even during
the early 2000s when the short tech bubble-related recession occurred. Permit issuance in the
Study Area peaked in 2004 and 2005 with over 90,000 permits issued for two years in a row.
During each of these two years over half the building permits issued were in Riverside and San
Bernardino counties.
The surge in housing production between 2002 and 2006, especially in Riverside and San
Bernardino counties, was in large part attributable to favorable lending terms, most simply
reflected in mortgage rates. After peaking in 1981, the average annual 30 -year mortgage rate
trended downward until reaching a 30 year low in 2003 at under 5.5%. This borrowing
environment made homes more affordable despite robust annual price increases during the
late 1990’s through mid 2000’s.
Table 4-11
Growth of Total Residential Building Permits in the Study Area
Source: Construction Industry Research Board
* 2010 Data through July only.
Annual permit issuance began to decline significantly in 2007 and fell below the 15 -year
average in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Before the residential production slow -down, many
home owners’ monthly mortgage payments began to increase due to their variable rate
mortgage structures. When the full impact of the recession was felt and the unemployment
rate increased to 15%, many homes were no longer affordable for their owners. Overbuilding
of new homes for sale coupled with the growing inventory of homes fo r re-sale increased
inventories far in excess of demand, causing prices to fall. With many desperate sellers and
Year Los Angeles Orange Riverside San
Bernardino Ventura Imperial Total
Percent
Change from
Previous
Year
1995 8,405 8,300 6,946 3,953 2,166 497 30,267 -
1996 8,607 10,207 7,499 5,014 2,353 331 34,011 12%
1997 10,424 12,251 9,784 5,593 2,316 327 40,695 20%
1998 11,692 10,101 12,493 6,113 3,182 394 43,975 8%
1999 14,383 12,348 14,579 7,072 4,442 333 53,157 21%
2000 17,071 12,367 15,410 6,580 3,971 677 56,076 5%
2001 18,253 8,646 19,014 8,527 3,446 756 58,642 5%
2002 19,364 12,020 22,664 10,616 2,507 1,062 68,233 16%
2003 21,313 9,311 30,361 12,640 3,635 1,211 78,471 15%
2004 26,935 9,322 34,226 18,470 2,603 2,157 93,713 19%
2005 25,647 7,206 34,134 16,684 4,516 2,974 91,161 -3%
2006 26,348 8,371 25,211 13,872 2,461 1,850 78,113 -14%
2007 20,363 7,072 12,453 8,004 1,847 1,079 50,818 -35%
2008 13,704 3,159 5,919 3,182 842 464 27,270 -46%
2009 5,653 2,200 4,190 2,495 404 195 15,137 -44%
2010*4,435 1,452 2,913 1,089 341 52 10,282 -32%
Total 252,597 134,333 257,796 129,904 41,032 14,359 830,021 N/A
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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4.19
very few buyers, a flood of home foreclosures began to impact lender balance sheets and
caused the credit markets to tighten.
While certain areas, including the Study Area, were more adversely impacted than others, it’s
important to note that this was a national phenomenon causing a national recession that has
had a particularly hard impact on the Inland Empire due to the disproportionately l arge
construction and transportation / distribution job sectors located there.
New home production in many parts of the Study Area, but particularly in the Inland Empire, is
currently stagnant and will remain so for several years until supply and demand come back into
balance. However, the families that occupied the distressed houses or lost their jobs did not all
simply leave. Despite financial burdens, most families remained in the Study Area, renting and
living within reduced means, and will be there when the recession is over. As such, the number
of households in the study area between 2007 and 2010 does not decline in a trend similar to
jobs, though growth was certainly reduced during that time period.
Trends in single and multi-family product types reflect the relative levels of maturity of each
county, with more mature areas that are fully developed and space -constrained limited to
higher density development. The split between single family detached and multifamily units
built between 1995 and 2010 in the Study Area was approximately 70%/30% respectively, with
over half of the total multifamily units in the Study Area built in Los Angeles County.
Conversely, single family detached homes represented approximately 86% of the homes built in
Riverside and San Bernardino counties, an area rich with undeveloped land. Orange County,
which is running out of vacant land for development, falls between Los Angeles and the Inland
Empire counties with approximately 60% of new homes built as detached unit s.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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Figure 4-10
Study Area Residential Building Permit Issuance, 2005 – 2010
Source: Construction Industry Research Board (CRIB)
f 2010 Numbers are annualized first 7 months of 2010 actual CRIB data.
Table 4-12 presents detailed annual residential building permit data from between 2005 and
2010. The table shows annualized data for the first seven months of 2010 that indicate a slight
rebound from 2009; the lowest production year shown. Interestingly, Figure 4-10 shows a
more gradual decline in multifamily unit permits in 2007 and 2008 relative to single family
units. This, among other reasons, is likely a result of builders being unable to halt the
production of a large multifamily project as quickly as detached unit project. In many cases
developers carried multifamily projects forward but converted condominium projects to
apartments, for which there remained a relatively healthy market.
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
To
t
a
l
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
i
a
l
B
u
i
l
d
i
n
g
P
e
r
m
i
t
s
I
s
s
u
e
d
Year
Single Family Multi-Family Total
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Table 4-12
Annual Building Permits Issued in the 6 County Area, 2005 – 2010
Source: Construction Industry Research Board (CRIB)
f 2010 Numbers are annualized first 7 months of 2010 actual CRIB data.
4.4 BASE YEAR 2010 ESTIMATES
The California Economic Development Department (EDD) keeps data on actual historical at -
place employment by county. These data, both annual and monthly through mid 2010, were
used to establish an actual 2010 base year employment number for each county. These totals
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
Los Angeles
Single Family 11,911 10,097 7,509 3,539 2,131 2,412
Multi-Family 13,736 16,251 12,854 10,165 3,522 5,191
Total 25,647 26,348 20,363 13,704 5,653 7,603
Orange
Single Family 4,058 3,735 2,182 1,295 1,376 1,606
Multi-Family 3,148 4,636 4,890 1,864 824 883
Total 7,206 8,371 7,072 3,159 2,200 2,489
Riverside
Single Family 29,994 20,692 9,763 3,815 3,431 4,281
Multi-Family 4,140 4,519 2,690 2,104 759 713
Total 34,134 25,211 12,453 5,919 4,190 4,994
San Bernardino
Single Family 15,305 12,599 6,239 1,981 1,441 1,301
Multi-Family 1,379 1,273 1,765 1,201 1,054 566
Total 16,684 13,872 8,004 3,182 2,495 1,867
Ventura
Single Family 2,593 1,560 736 354 231 209
Multi-Family 1,923 901 1,111 488 173 375
Total 4,516 2,461 1,847 842 404 585
Imperial
Single Family 2,722 1,631 670 233 183 89
Multi-Family 252 219 409 231 12 -
Total 2,974 1,850 1,079 464 195 89
Total Study Area
Single Family 66,583 50,314 27,099 11,217 8,793 9,898
Multi-Family 24,578 27,799 23,719 16,053 6,344 7,728
Total 91,161 78,113 50,818 27,270 15,137 17,626
Total Permits Issued (units)
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4.22
were adjusted upward to account for self employed persons not captured in standard
employment count methods used by the State. The percentage increases to account for self
employed, ranging from 8% to 10%, were derived from historical data between 1980 and 2005
as reported by Global Insight.
Establishing current employment counts for 2010 was critical because the adopted forecasts
from SCAG are several years old and therefore do not properly reflect the 2008 recession 6.
Table 4-13 shows 2005 to 2010 county-level employment data and compares the SCAG
forecasts with those developed by PB using actual data from EDD for the 5 -year period. The
table shows that the 2008 recession resulted in 630,000 job losses in the Study Area between
2005 and 2010, and 1.2 million fewer jobs than were expected in the adopted SCAG forecasts.
Table 4-13
2010 Base Year Total Jobs: EDD/PB vs. SCAG/OCP (thousands)
Note: EDD/PB job counts include estimate of self-employed workers
Table 4-14 shows the same comparison between the SCAG forecast and the EDD / PB forecast
for households. While actual household growth in the Study Area was not as strong as
predicted in the SCAG forecast, there was not as severe a difference as is outlined above for
jobs. Between 2005 and 2010, the Study Area added approximately 194,000 households, over
half of which were added to the Inland Empire counties.
Table 4-14
2010 Base Year Households EDD/PB vs. SCAG/OCP (thousands)
6 WRCOG 2010 and OCP 2006 forecasts were combined with the SCAG data set which was approved in 2007.
2010 Change from
2005 CAGR 2010 Change from
2005 CAGR
Los Angeles 4,394 4,550 155 0.7%4,082 -312 -1.5%
Orange 1,616 1,755 139 1.7%1,461 -155 -2.0%
Ventura 345 373 28 1.6%321 -24 -1.5%
Imperial 58 73 15 4.8%59 1 0.3%
Riverside 650 785 135 3.8%577 -73 -2.4%
San Bernardino 704 810 106 2.8%633 -71 -2.1%
Total Study Area 7,768 8,347 578 1.4%7,133 -635 -1.7%
SCAG EDD / PB
2005
2010 Change from
2005 CAGR 2010 Change from
2005 CAGR
Los Angeles 3,211 3,356 145 0.9%3,269 58 0.4%
Orange 981 1,039 58 1.2%1,000 19 0.4%
Ventura 260 275 15 1.1%269 9 0.7%
Imperial 45 57 12 4.8%51 6 2.5%
Riverside 612 721 108 3.3%678 66 2.1%
San Bernardino 576 637 61 2.0%612 36 1.2%
Total Study Area 5,686 6,086 400 1.4%5,880 194 0.7%
SCAG EDD / PB
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4.23
4.5 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS
This section provides detailed information on the PB forecasts developed as inp uts to the
RivTAM model for the SR 91 Express Lane Extension traffic and revenue forecasting effort. As
outlined in the methodology section above, PB uses third party forecasts to assist in developing
its long-term forecasts at the county-level. A presentation of these forecasts is provided first,
along with commentary on current economic trends and expectations that resulted in the PB
forecast.
While household and population counts are somewhat standard across forecasting platforms,
most of the forecasts reviewed have varying “definitions” of employment that are not directly
comparable. As such, we offer the following terminology to help clarify the dialogue that
follows:
Wage & Salary: A widely used definition of employment used by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) which reports payroll employment counts based on insurance claims.
Proprietors: Persons who own businesses but are paid by distributions from business
revenue, and are not part of the payroll.
Self Employed: Persons who are contract employees, operate businesses as individuals
or partners and are therefore not part of company payrolls. May be some overlap with
Proprietors.
Because of the differences in employment definitions and when the individual forecasts were
developed, compound annual growth rates (CAGR) are displayed in the data tables to better
capture each forecast’s spirit.
4.5.1 Comparative Third Party Forecasts: Long-Term
Global Insight Inc. Global Insight provides comprehensive economic and financial forecasts
domestically and internationally. PB obtained Global Insight historical and forecast data from
1975 through 2035 at the county level for total employment, households and population.
Historical employment data is from the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(“BLS”) Current Employment Statistics (“CES”) program, which reports non agricultural wage
and salary employment. The main categories excluded from this program are military,
proprietors, self employed and agricultural workers. Military employment is added into the
total estimate presented herein which is obtained by Global Insight from the Bureau of
Economic Analysis (“BEA”).
The Global Insight employment forecast for the Study Area reports 6.7 million jobs in 2010 and
forecasts employment to increase to 8.8 million jobs by 2035, a 1.09% compound annual
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
4.24
growth rate. The forecast predicts the strongest growth to occur between 2010 and 20 15 at
1.80% followed by periods of lower growth ranging from 0.87% to 0.93%.
California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Caltrans provides long-term forecasts for
various socio-economic variables. The primary data gathering source for employment is the
California EDD Labor Market Information (LMI), and for households and population, the
California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit.
The Caltrans employment forecast for the five county area totals 7.3 million jobs in 2010 and
forecasts employment to increase to 9.3 million jobs by 2030, a 1.22% compound annual
growth rate. The forecast predicts the strongest growth to occur between 2010 and 2015 at
1.44% growth, tapering off over the last 15 years of the forecast period, reaching a low of
1.07% between 2025 and 2030. Caltrans does not provide 2035 forecasts in their projections.
Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) SCAG is the regional planning agency
that collects and assembles economic data from other more local plan ning agencies, including
the OCTA and WRCOG. WRCOG produces independent forecasts for Riverside County and
similarly, The Orange County Projections Series, produced by the Center for Demographic
Research at California State University (Fullerton), produces a forecast of Orange County land
use for the OCTA.
All of these agencies use a similar methodology to prepare their forecasts, beginning with
projections of population, employment and occupied households at the county level with
jurisdictional input and approval by their respective technical advisory committees. After a
series of reviews by the agencies and member jurisdictions, the forecasts are compiled and
disaggregated to smaller geographic areas based on observed market considerations, land
capacity and local policy considerations. Each agency model uses a different geographic
distribution method, so conversion tables must be used to join the data sets for use in the
various agency models.
The WRCOG data for Riverside County was produced in 20 10. The most recently approved
OCTA series, OCP 2006, has a base year of 2003 and is currently incorporated in the SCAG RTP
2007 model.
Woods and Poole (W&P) Woods and Poole provides independent economic and demographic
projections through 2040. Woods and Poole employment is forecast in components using an
establishment-based survey. This forecast is unique from the others as it includes self -
employed workers (those with IRS Form 1099-MISC income) and farm employment. As a result
of self-employed workers’ inclusion in the W&P forecast, this source has a much higher forecast
of employment than the other sources.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
4.25
Table 4-15 shows each of the employment forecasts described above along with the PB
forecast for the Study Area. The PB forecast of Study Area employment in 2010 (7.1 million) is
10% lower than the most recently adopted SCAG forecast, and 3% lower than the 2008 Caltrans
forecast.
Table 4-15
Comparisons of Long-Term Employment Projections (thousands)
(1) Total non-farm employment.
(2) Total wage and salary employment. Includes farm employment.
(3) Includes farm employment, self-employed and proprieters.
4.5.2 Comparative Forecasts: Short-Term
Some of the third party sources listed above also provided detailed annual forecasts for the
near-term. This perspective is especially important because the timing of the economy’s
recovery in the next five years will impact all future years of the forecast. Figure 4-11 compares
the third party forecasts’ growth rates between 2005 and 2015 with the PB forecast. The
exhibit shows the substantial job losses between 2008 and 2010 with job growth expected in
2011. However, the forecasts have different growth profiles in recovery. The Woods & Poole
Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global Insight (1)6,596 7,217 7,555 7,892 8,253 8,615
Caltrans (2)6,812 7,418 7,965 8,540 9,074 9,540
SCAG (1)8,267 8,727 9,096 9,458 9,824 10,198
W&P (3)9,288 9,990 10,575 11,189 11,831 12,505
PB (3)7,133 7,601 8,061 8,460 8,799 9,114
2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030 2030 to 2035 2010 to 2035
Global Insight 621 338 336 361 362 2,019
Caltrans 606 547 575 534 466 2,728
SCAG 460 369 362 366 374 1,931
W&P 702 585 613 643 673 3,216
PB 468 460 398 339 315 1,980
Global Insight 124 68 67 72 72 81
Caltrans 121 109 115 107 93 109
SCAG 92 74 72 73 75 77
W&P 140 117 123 129 135 129
PB 94 92 80 68 63 79
Global Insight 1.82%0.92%0.87%0.90%0.86%1.07%
Caltrans 1.72%1.43%1.40%1.22%1.01%1.36%
SCAG 1.09%0.83%0.78%0.76%0.75%0.84%
W&P 1.47%1.14%1.13%1.12%1.11%1.20%
PB 1.28%1.18%0.97%0.79%0.71%0.98%
Incremental Growth
Average Annual Growth
Compound Average Annual Growth Rate
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May 9, 2012
4.26
forecast (green line) expects a relatively sharp uptick in growth in 2011 followed by moderate
growth in the following four years. The Global Insight and Caltrans f orecasts (blue and red
lines, respectively) have similarly shaped growth projections with the growth rate peaking in
2012. The PB Forecast (purple line) reflects expectations for a gradual recovery that stretches
over several years with no substantial “peak after the trough.” As discussed earlier, this
“gradual” or “constrained” recovery will result from (among other things) real estate market
distress that will limit construction industry activity for several years and limited small business
growth stemming from the damage that mortgage defaults caused to the credit markets.
Figure 4-11
Compound Annual Growth Rate
Comparison of Short Term Employment Forecasts
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.27
4.5.3 Study Area Employment Forecast
Total employment growth in the Study Area between 2010 and 2035 is projected to be 1.98
million jobs or an average of approximately 80,000 jobs per year (0.98% CAGR). Table 4-16
breaks this growth down by county.
Orange County is expected to see moderate growth, adding 20,000 jobs per year on average
between 2010 and 2035. This is a 25% slower pace than the average annual increases of 25,650
that were seen between 1985 and 2005. This level of employment growth is consistent with
access constraints (i.e. transportation, land costs, etc.) to the county and jurisdictional
development and entitlement caps on potential development activity.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
4.28
Table 4-16
PB Employment Forecast by County (thousands)
The Inland Empire will experience the highest growth in jobs with compound annual growth
rates of 1.68% and 2.49% over the 25 year period for San Bernardino and Riverside counties,
respectively. The Inland Empire counties are expected to add approximately 33,000 new jobs
annually between 2010 and 2035. This is 13,000 more annually than the average annual
growth experienced between 1990 and 2010 as stated in Table 4-8, above, though the 1990 to
2010 average includes the substantial job losses resulting from the 2008 recession with no
Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Imperial 59 66 76 84 90 95
Ventura 321 351 376 398 413 425
Los Angeles 4,082 4,267 4,396 4,488 4,550 4,601
Orange 1,461 1,594 1,706 1,799 1,884 1,966
San Bernardino 633 679 753 827 895 960
Riverside 577 645 755 864 966 1,067
Total Study Area 7,133 7,601 8,061 8,460 8,799 9,114
2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030 2030 to 2035 2010 to 2035
Imperial 7 9 8 6 5 36
Ventura 30 25 21 15 13 104
Los Angeles 185 130 92 62 51 520
Orange 132 112 93 85 81 504
San Bernardino 45 74 74 68 64 326
Riverside 68 110 110 102 101 490
Total Study Area 468 460 398 339 315 1,980
Imperial 1 2 2 1 1 1
Ventura 6 5 4 3 3 4
Los Angeles 37 26 18 12 10 21
Orange 26 22 19 17 16 20
San Bernardino 9 15 15 14 13 13
Riverside 14 22 22 20 20 20
Total Study Area 94 92 80 68 63 79
Imperial 2.40%2.70%2.00%1.50%1.00%1.92%
Ventura 1.79%1.40%1.10%0.75%0.60%1.13%
Los Angeles 0.89%0.60%0.41%0.27%0.23%0.48%
Orange 1.75%1.37%1.07%0.93%0.85%1.19%
San Bernardino 1.39%2.09%1.90%1.60%1.40%1.68%
Riverside 2.25%3.20%2.75%2.25%2.00%2.49%
Total Study Area 1.28%1.18%0.97%0.79%0.71%0.98
Incremental Growth
Average Annual Growth
Compound Average Annual Growth Rate
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accounting for recovery. Between 1990 and 2005, the Inland Empire counties averaged job
growth of over 36,000 per year.
Los Angeles County will add approximately 26,000 jobs per year, though it will grow at the
slowest rate of the six counties in the Study Area, less than half a percent annually. Between
1990 and 2010, Los Angeles county job growth was cyclical but lost jobs on an annual average
basis. With more diversity in its job base and major investments in transportation
infrastructure, specifically transit, positive but moderate job growth is expected in the future.
The shortage of developable land in Los Angeles County will limit the rate of job growth there,
though it will continue to have the largest employment base in the region due to the
established industries and national headquarters, airport and port facilities, location relative to
the coast, and diverse housing stock. Developers will continue to seek out underutilized sites to
redevelop into higher density properties, both residential and commercial. Transit oriented
development around the rapidly developing transit system, as noted in the sidebar, is a
relatively new trend in Los Angeles that will house a significant percentage of new
development. Still, some Los Angeles County residents are expected to migrate east to
Riverside or San Bernardino counties seeking lower costs of living. The strongest growth
industries in Los Angeles are expected to be educational and professional services, as well as
arts and entertainment.
Orange County will see most of its long-term job growth in the same three categories as Los
Angeles County but the fourth largest industry will be Finance, Investment, and Real Estate
services (FIRE). Redevelopment of older residential and industrial prop erties in Orange County
will be more geared towards new higher density residential space. Higher density office space
will be developed in the medium and long-term, though there is a notable movement towards
shared office space and working from home which will temper the demand for office space in
Orange County and other parts of the Study Area. This trend and the significant inventory of
vacant office space in Orange County will further constrain construction employment growth in
the short to medium term.
With relatively low real estate costs, lower wages, access to a growing international airport
(Ontario), and available land for both commercial expansion and workforce housing options,
certain types of businesses have blossomed in the Inland Empire or relocated there from more
expensive coastal locations. Warehousing, manufacturing and distribution facilities have led
Inland Empire job growth in the past decade as the ports in Los Angeles County created
demand for major distribution facilities that co uld not be located near the ports due to high
land costs. Because of the growth of population expected in the long -term, a more balanced
mix of population serving (retail) employment is expected, though primary job growth will
continue to be focused in the distribution, manufacturing, construction, and transportation
sectors.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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Table 4-17 shows the PB forecast growth by county divided by each type of employment as
defined in the RivTAM documentation. The top four employment categories in each county are
highlighted, showing that while professional services, educational services, and tourism are
expected to experience growth across the Study Area, each county has its own growth profile
represented in the industries expecting moderate growth. As noted above, the Inland Empire
counties expect higher than average retail, construction, and transportation jobs, while Orange
County is expected to have a higher percentage of FIRE and other professional services jobs.
Overall the Study Area’s five highest growth industries will be educational services, professional
services, retail goods, arts & entertainment, and construction, accounting for 77% of growth
during the Study Period.
Table 4-17
Employment by Major Category (in thousands)
Imperial Ventura Los Angeles Orange San
Bernardino Riverside Total Study
Area
Agricultural 1,290 4,410 -2,100 1,550 1,630 -7,860 -1,080
Construction 1,090 5,420 22,730 29,490 23,420 66,840 148,990
Manufacturing 2,450 4,870 -46,640 9,790 18,450 19,830 8,750
Wholesale Goods 880 4,080 10,670 17,880 21,570 20,170 75,250
Retail Goods 5,150 9,760 40,320 34,060 47,160 90,940 227,390
Transportation 2,530 820 5,800 8,640 24,630 28,160 70,580
Information 280 3,010 42,700 10,960 1,920 10,650 69,520
FIRE 520 9,490 12,510 49,230 11,810 21,630 105,190
Professional 2,010 23,020 131,460 164,950 46,060 65,970 433,470
Educational 6,770 22,680 196,980 106,880 92,130 77,020 502,460
Arts & Entertainment 2,550 10,910 83,280 57,260 25,490 40,410 219,900
Other Services 840 2,410 9,320 9,580 6,870 22,280 51,300
Public Administration 9,460 3,030 12,780 4,190 5,110 33,720 68,290
Total Job Growth 35,820 103,910 519,810 504,460 326,250 489,760 1,980,010
Agricultural 3.6%4.2%-0.4%0.3%0.5%-1.6%-0.1%
Construction 3.0%5.2%4.4%5.8%7.2%13.6%7.5%
Manufacturing 6.8%4.7%-9.0%1.9%5.7%4.0%0.4%
Wholesale Goods 2.5%3.9%2.1%3.5%6.6%4.1%3.8%
Retail Goods 14.4%9.4%7.8%6.8%14.5%18.6%11.5%
Transportation 7.1%0.8%1.1%1.7%7.5%5.7%3.6%
Information 0.8%2.9%8.2%2.2%0.6%2.2%3.5%
FIRE 1.5%9.1%2.4%9.8%3.6%4.4%5.3%
Professional 5.6%22.2%25.3%32.7%14.1%13.5%21.9%
Educational 18.9%21.8%37.9%21.2%28.2%15.7%25.4%
Arts & Entertainment 7.1%10.5%16.0%11.4%7.8%8.3%11.1%
Other Services 2.3%2.3%1.8%1.9%2.1%4.5%2.6%
Public Administration 26.4%2.9%2.5%0.8%1.6%6.9%3.4%
Total 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Percent of Total for County
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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4.6 HOUSEHOLD FORECAST
4.6.1 Study Area Comparative Forecasts
As in the employment forecast section, information on third party forecasts examined by PB to
help guide its long-term county-level forecasts is presented first, followed by details on the PB
forecast. The same four third party forecasts, Global Insight, SCAG, Woods & Poole, and
Caltrans, which were surveyed for employment, were also surveyed for household forecasting
purposes. Table 4-18 compares the growth rates from each source with the PB forecast from
2010 to 2035.
Table 4-18
Comparison of Long Term Households Projections (thousands)
All of the forecasts reflect similar long-term annual growth rates over the Study Period, ranging
from 0.79% to 1.02%. However, slight variation between five-year periods is apparent. For
instance, the SCAG view is one of strong early growth that tapers off more substantially than
Households 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global Insight 5,854 6,173 6,494 6,790 7,078 7,366
Caltrans 5,879 6,106 6,381 6,655 6,912 7,162
SCAG 6,086 6,473 6,839 7,155 7,448 7,709
W&P 6,027 6,410 6,786 7,140 7,468 7,770
PB 5,880 6,082 6,344 6,594 6,825 7,044
2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030 2030 to 2035 2010 to 2035
Global Insight 319 321 296 288 288 1,512
Caltrans 227 275 275 257 250 1,283
SCAG 387 366 316 293 261 1,623
W&P 382 376 355 328 303 1,743
PB 202 262 250 231 219 1,165
Global Insight 64 64 59 58 58 60
Caltrans 45 55 55 51 50 51
SCAG 77 73 63 59 52 65
W&P 76 75 71 66 61 70
PB 40 52 50 46 44 47
Global Insight 1.07%1.02%0.90%0.83%0.80%0.92%
Caltrans 0.76%0.88%0.85%0.76%0.71%0.79%
SCAG 1.24%1.11%0.91%0.81%0.69%0.95%
W&P 1.24%1.15%1.02%0.90%0.80%1.02%
PB 0.68%0.85%0.78%0.69%0.63%0.73%
Incremental Growth
Average Annual Growth
Compound Average Annual Growth Rate
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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the other forecasts. Woods and Poole expects a similar recovery to that envisioned by SCAG,
but with sustained growth in the latter part of the forecast. Global Insight and Caltrans both
have relatively flat trajectories in their household growth forecasts, with Caltrans barely
deviating from its long-term average growth rate. Figure 4-12 further illustrates this data
comparison, showing the PB Forecast expectations for a slow recovery of household growth in
the next five years, and the fastest growth of the Forecast Period occurring between 2015 and
2020.
Figure 4-12
Comparison of Long-Term Household Growth Rates
The current recession was caused in large part by the overbuilding of residential real estate and
speculative lending practices that together resulted in large inventories of empty new and
resold homes. As is typical with economic models, when inventories build and demand
declines, prices fall, as has happened in the Study Area over the past th ree years. The median
single family home price in Riverside County increased substantially in the early and mid 2000s
to a peak of over $400,000 in 2006 but declined sharply between 2007 and 2009 as a result of
the 2008 recession. Home prices across the Study Area behaved similarly, though the most
substantial percentage declines were realized in the Inland Empire, as shown in Table 4-19.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030 2030 to 2035
Co
m
p
o
u
n
d
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
A
n
n
u
a
l
G
r
o
w
t
h
R
a
t
e
Time Period
Global Insight Caltrans SCAG W&P PB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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Table 4-19
Historical Study Area Median Home Prices
Source: California Association of Realtors, PB Analysis
f—Put definition of f notation.
A chain of events must unfold before the Study Area housing market (and real estate market as
a whole) gets back to a relatively balanced state of supply and demand. Many Study Area jobs
are dependent on the construction and real estate indust ries. These sectors of the economy
will be a drag on the overall recovery because home construction and related industry growth
will not restart in earnest until people buy up the inventory of vacant houses. Because credit is
tight and many people are still unemployed, it is expected to take 2 to 4 years for these
inventories to be absorbed.
Many families in the Study Area have been, and will continue to be, priced out of the Orange
County market and are expected to seek more affordable living arrange ments in other places
such as the Inland Empire. This trend is expected to continue despite the price moderation that
began in the 2007-2009 period for all counties.
4.6.2 Study Area Housing Unit Forecasts
Table 4-20 presents the PB forecast of households. The Study Area is expected to add close to
1.17 million new households between 2010 and 2035, a compound annual rate of 0.73% over
the Forecast Period. Growth is expected to be split between 663,300 single family dwelling
units and 550,700 multifamily units. This mix reflects slowing of detached unit growth in Los
Angeles and Orange counties, which will be replaced with a mix of higher density and infill
residential development. Continued strong development growth in the Inland Empire counties
is expected in the medium and long-term.
Median Price 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(f)
Los Angeles 487,000 523,000 550,000 470,000 305,000 332,000 342,000
Orange 595,000 643,000 644,000 628,000 423,000 481,000 502,000
Riverside 389,000 410,000 400,000 309,000 179,000 185,000 190,000
San Bernardino 325,000 365,000 355,000 283,000 155,000 146,000 160,000
2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2005-2011
Los Angeles 7%5%-15%-35%9%3%-6%
Orange 8%0%-2%-33%14%4%-3%
Riverside 5%-2%-23%-42%3%3%-11%
San Bernardino 12%-3%-20%-45%-6%10%-11%
Growth Rate
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
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Table 4-20
PB Household Forecast by County (thousands)
About 52% of the new dwelling units forecast to be built in the Study Area will be located in the
Inland Empire. These 615,000 new units represent close to 2.0 million people. Workers not
employed in San Bernardino or Riverside counties will face heavy traffic while commuting to job
centers outside the Inland Empire, choosing to commute in exchange for less expensive
housing. Local development experts suggest that 1.5 to 2 hours is the maximum that
commuters will regularly drive each way to get to work. This limits the area in the Inland
Empire that can reasonably serve the Orange County job markets to the western portions in the
HOUSEHOLDS 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Imperial 51 58 66 73 78 82
Ventura 269 284 297 308 318 328
Los Angeles 3,269 3,332 3,399 3,465 3,527 3,581
Orange 1,000 1,031 1,076 1,103 1,125 1,148
San Bernardino 612 646 699 762 818 872
Riverside 678 732 808 884 959 1,033
Total Study Area 5,880 6,082 6,344 6,594 6,825 7,044
2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030 2030 to 2035 2010 to 2035
Imperial 6 8 7 6 4 31
Ventura 15 13 11 10 10 59
Los Angeles 63 67 66 62 54 312
Orange 31 45 27 22 23 148
San Bernardino 33 53 64 56 54 260
Riverside 54 76 75 75 74 355
Total Study Area 202 262 250 231 219 1,165
Imperial 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2
Ventura 2.9 2.6 2.3 2 2.1 2.4
Los Angeles 12.5 13.4 13.2 12.4 10.8 12.5
Orange 6.2 8.9 5.4 4.4 4.5 5.9
San Bernardino 6.7 10.6 12.7 11.1 10.7 10.4
Riverside 10.8 15.2 15.1 15.1 14.8 14.2
Total Study Area 40.4 52.4 50.1 46.2 43.8 46.6
Imperial 2.40%2.70%2.00%1.50%1.00%1.92%
Ventura 1.06%0.90%0.75%0.65%0.65%0.80%
Los Angeles 0.38%0.40%0.38%0.35%0.30%0.36%
Orange 0.61%0.85%0.50%0.40%0.40%0.55%
San Bernardino 1.07%1.59%1.76%1.42%1.28%1.42%
Riverside 1.55%2.00%1.80%1.65%1.50%1.70%
Total Study Area 0.68%0.85%0.78%0.69%0.63%0.73%
Incremental Growth
Average Annual Growth
Compound Average Annual Growth Rate
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
4.35
vicinity of Corona, Chino Hills, Ontario, and Riverside, depending on the use of tolled lanes. For
instance, the drive from Irvine to Corona takes about 35 minutes using the toll roads or during
low traffic times of the day, but during rush hour, this drive takes about 1 hour and 50 minutes.
Faced with this tradeoff, many Orange County workers, especially those with higher incomes,
will continue to seek housing options in Orange County, despite the higher cost.
Orange and Ventura counties will grow at compound annual rates of 0.6% and 0.8%,
respectively during the Study Period, though the product mixes of each county will be different.
Because of the historic imbalance between residential and non-residential property
development in Orange County, home prices have been driven up, as discussed above. This,
coupled with the shortage of developable land in Orange County, will cause developers to build
more multifamily structures and smaller detached units. Ventura County does not have the
same constraints as Orange County and will see the majority of new residential development in
single family structures.
Following this continuum, Los Angeles County, the most developed of the six Study Area
counties, should see the vast majority of the 312,000 dwelling units forecast to be built there
between 2010 and 2035 in high density multifamily structures, generally at infill and
redevelopment sites.
4.6.3 Study Area Median Household Income Forecasts
Median household incomes for Study Area counties were calculated using the Global Insight
median household income and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts. PB deflated the median
household income forecasts using the CPI forecast to establish a forecast of real media n
household income growth by county. These growth rates were then applied to the 2005 TAZ -
level median household income data from SCAG to arrive at new projections for median
household income. Table 4-21 provides the county-level median household income forecast
including growth rates applied to each year in the forecast period.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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4.36
Table 4-21
PB Median Household Income Forecast (Nominal Dollars)
The table shows that median household income growth was relatively minimal (or negative)
between 2005 and 2010 due to the 2008 recession but is expected to recover in the 2010 to
2020 period with 1.5% to 2% annual growth, depending on the county. Overall the Inland
Empire is expected to see 1.4% annual real income growth while most of the other counties
within the Study Area will experience slightly higher growth at 1.8%.
4.7 KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE STUDY AREA
A critical element of the PB forecasting effort is to develop small area forecasts for groups of
TAZs containing developments that will most directly impact traffic on SR-91. This is done by
reviewing specific plans and interviewing planning staff and devel opers of properties to collect
the most recent data available on how and when projects will evolve.
Guidance from previous land use work performed by PB was combined with information
acquired through current interviews and project plans to adjust TAZ-level job and household
counts relative to those programmed in the base data. Jobs and households were adjusted
downward in many of the TAZs representing major projects such as the Preserve, the New
Model Colony, the Great Park, Tustin Legacy, and several Irvine Company projects as these had
not kept pace with the expectations reflected in the base data.
PB conducted field research in Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange counties. Using these
data, Focus Areas, representing projects, groups of projects or potential redevelopment areas
were identified, though the data obtained for each Focus Area varied significantly. In some
cases, data were complete and up to date while in other cases data were scarce. To further
categorize the review process, the following five examples are offered to characterize the
materials produced from our field research.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Los Angeles 42,640 43,990 48,230 53,290 58,350 63,050 67,950
Orange 54,270 54,810 60,110 66,500 72,710 78,450 85,070
Riverside / San Bernardino 41,760 40,400 43,530 47,360 50,880 54,060 57,630
Ventura 55,010 56,820 62,380 69,400 76,000 82,200 89,360
Imperial 29,230 29,620 31,040 33,510 35,930 37,420 39,050
2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2010-2035
Los Angeles 0.60%1.90%2.00%1.80%1.60%1.50%1.80%
Orange 0.20%1.90%2.00%1.80%1.50%1.60%1.80%
Riverside / San Bernardino -0.70%1.50%1.70%1.40%1.20%1.30%1.40%
Ventura 0.60%1.90%2.20%1.80%1.60%1.70%1.80%
Imperial 0.30%0.90%1.50%1.40%0.80%0.90%1.10%
Real Growth Rate
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
4.37
Actual Specific Plans – In some cases actual development plans (quantities and types of
development) by project area or TAZ were provided by developers along with expected
timing of construction. This was the goal of each interview but few projects had this
level of data available.
Partial or Dated Plans – For many of the projects surveyed, especially residential
projects that had to some degree been put on hold due to the market downturn,
current plans were not available. Rather, estimates of build-out and locations were the
best data available and some reliance on multiple sources and professional judgment
was required.
Professional Judgment – In some cases, no current development plans were available
for parcels that, because of their location and eligibility for development, were expected
to be developed in the more distant future. In these cases, the MPO forecasts for the
underlying TAZs were considered and in some instances modified based on professional
judgment alone.
MPO Forecast Adoption – As with most of the TAZs in the Study Area, PB adopted the
development allocations of some Focus Areas. In many cases, the development plans
matched the data obtained in the field. However, there were instances where projects
were planned or proposed but because limited information was available, no
confirmation of the MPO’s accuracy could be obtained. If the forecasts for these areas
appeared reasonable, they were not adjusted.
Redevelopment Areas – In the long-term, certain areas of Orange County that currently
contain older, lower density industrial or commercial space are expected to be
redeveloped as the owners of that land move their remaining operations to lower cost
locations. These areas are anticipated to accommodate growth in jobs and households,
after the remaining vacant and developable land is absorbed. Development scenarios
were calculated for these areas based on professional judgment and allocated in the
later years of the forecasts accordingly to help avoid development being allocated
where there was clearly no capacity. Assumptions for redevelopment participation,
current FAR, future FAR, and development mix were applied to yield a reasonable
estimate of additional jobs and households that could develop, and were generally
programmed between 2025 and 2035.
Considering the levels of development review outlined above, details of certain Focus Areas are
presented in the following sections. These project descriptions present the mo st probable
project outcomes given the available data and PB’s understanding of development economics
in the Study Area. While some of the Focus Area projects are ongoing, many have been put on
hold for the past two to four years and are not expected to re -engage until late 2011, 2012 or
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
SocioEconomic Variables and Land Use
May 9, 2012
4.38
later. In most cases, overall development quantities have not changed, though the phasing of
the projects and specific products built will be dictated by evolving market conditions.
4.7.1 Inland Empire Projects
As noted above, the Inland Empire is where the majority of SR 91 traffic will originate, therefore
the locations and timing of residential projects located there is a critical element in measuring
the traffic levels on the express lanes. The most attractive residential sites are expected to be
those that are closest to the SR 91 corridor and Orange County, which would provide the
shortest commute for people traveling to the work centers there. In our field research, PB
focused on the projects that would be built in this area and have identified some of the major
projects on the map in Figure 4-13 and the paragraphs that follow.
Figure 4-13
Map of Inland Empire Developments
Ontario
Airport
Development
Chino Hills
Industrial
College
Park
The New
Model Colony
The
Preserve
Corona
Industrial
Development
To:
Canyon
Crossing
and
March Air
Force Base
Development
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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May 9, 2012
4.39
Corona Industrial & Redevelopment: While most of the City of Corona is built to capacity,
there are a few parcels along I-15, south of SR 91, that remain for infill development. Many of
these sites had been slated for development in the past decade but plans were abandoned at
the outset of the 2008 recession. A variety of uses fit theses parcels which are positioned close
to I-15, but local development experts suggest that the most likely uses are small scale
industrial development or flex business parks. Other areas on the north side of Corona along
Main Street and Hamner Avenue are ripe for redevelopment, which is expected to occur in the
latter portion of the Study Period. Redevelopment opportunities also exist, sporadically, along
SR 91 in the City of Riverside.
March Air Force Base: March AFB, located along I-215 in Riverside County, is being
redeveloped into a variety of land uses incluing industrial and warehouse space, residential
space, and medical / hospital related space. The base has an enormous capacity for
development but its location, roughly 20 miles east of Corona, makes it less attractive than
other areas on the western borders of the Inland Empire. Our expectation is that very large
warehouse and distribution centers will be developed there in the short and medium term due
to the vast amount of available space. Residential and other commercial uses will be developed
slowly over time after more attractive locations are absorbed. Over 20,000 new employees are
expected to be located there during the Study Period with the majority of this development
occurring after 2020.
Canyon Crossing: Canyon Crossing refers to a collection of industrial and retail projects north
of March Air Force Base along I-215. Near the Moreno Valley Mall, there are several large
parcels remaining for development into entertainment or office uses. Approximately 3,000
additional employees and 800 households are expected to be developed in this area, just south
and east of the city of Riverside.
Chino Hills Industrial: In the City of Chino Hills, several large industrially-zoned parcels exist
and will be developed over the next 5 to 15 years with space lar ge enough to house over 2,400
additional employees.
College Park: College Park, located in the southeast portion of the City of Chino near the Chino
Airport, will be the location of about 1,700 new households that will have very good access to
SR 91 via SR 71. These homes are expected to be built between 2015 and 2025. No non -
residential development is part of this project.
The Preserve: The Preserve is a partially constructed development south of the Chino Airport
and north of Pine Avenue in San Bernardino County. Like College Park, this development is in
an attractive location relative to Orange County access and will be one of the first large
developments in the Inland Empire to restart once the 2008 recession recovery begins in
earnest. The remaining portion of the project includes 6,500 households and non-residential
space to house 9,000 employees which will be built between 2015 and 2030.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
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The New Model Colony: The New Model Colony in San Bernardino County is an 8,200 acre area
south of Ontario near the Riverside County line that is planned for 9 million new square feet of
non-residential development and over 30,000 new dwelling units. This space is expected to
house approximately 21,000 new jobs. This project is well located but the scale of
development is too large to complete within the Study Period. By 2035, approximately 14,000
new employees and about 25,000 new households are expected.
Ontario Airport Environs: The area north of the Ontario Airport is slated for heavy
development during the Study Period. This area has the highest likelihood of becoming an
office center due to its proximity to the airport, highway access to Los Angeles and Orange
Counties, the significant selection of workforce and executive housing options and its central
location in the developed portion of the Inland Empire. Development plans for this area have
been developed by the City of Ontario but we feel it is unlikely that the area will be built to
capacity by the end of the Study Period. We have programmed 19,000 new jobs and 6,800
households to be developed in this area by 2035.
4.7.2 Orange County Projects
The northern half of Orange County is largely built to its current zoning capacity. Most new
development will take place in the southern portion of Orange County, which has few large
vacant parcels left to develop. However, those areas that are still available for large scale
development are located within a relatively close proximity to SR 91 and the highways that feed
it. As such, these developments will increase traffic on the SR 91 Express Lanes, especially the
non-residential developments which many commuters will seek to access from Inland Empire
residential areas. The map in Figure 4-14 shows some of the major projects which are
described in the paragraphs that follow.
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Figure 4-14
Map of Orange County Developments
The Irvine Company (TIC) Spectrum 5: TIC has several projects planned for the area southwest
of the interchange between Interstates 405 and 5, including the Planning Areas (PA) they’ve
designated as PA 18, PA 34 and PA 39. This area, which was mostly vacant or used for
agricultural and recreational purposes, has excellent highway exposure and is intended for a
mix of residential, office, and commercial development. Irvine Company representatives
expect just over 4,000 homes to develop in these areas between 2015 and 2030. Non -
residential development to house approximately 2,000 additional employees will be developed
there between 2020 and 2035.
John Wayne Airport Area: The area to the south and east of John Wayne Airport is known as
the Irvine Business Complex (IBC) and includ es the TIC PAs 23, 29, and 36. Over the past few
decades the IBC has developed into a major center for business, containing approximately
75,000 employees. This approximately 950-acre area is expected to add close to 20,000 new
jobs by 2035, which will be housed in a mixture of high density office buildings redeveloped
Anaheim
Stadium
Area
Planning
Area 1
Mountain
Park
Northwood/
Woodbury
Portola
Springs
Spectrum
Entertainment
Heritage
Fields
Spectrum 5
Baker Ranch/
Nakase
Nursery
Rancho
Mission
Viejo
John Wayne
Airport
Development/
IBC
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from low density light industrial structures and a variety of infill opportunities. Additionally, as
many as 4,000 high density residential units can be expected to be built in this area during the
Study Period.
Mountain Park: To the east of the SR 91/SR 241 interchange is a residential project called
Mountain Park. The development plans for this area have been scaled down slightly from the
Irvine Company’s previous estimate to approximately 2,500 single family homes, with so me
multi-family development. Virtually all employment planned for the area has been removed
from the plans.
Baker Ranch & Nakase Nursary: Baker Ranch is located to the south of SR 241 in the vicinity of
Bake Parkway. Just south of Baker Ranch is a large nursery that is expected to be developed
into commercial uses at some point during the study period. Though no development plans are
available for these areas, their location makes them prime for development of both residential
and non-residential land uses. Together PB expects these areas to house approximately 5,000
jobs and 300 to 500 homes, though the majority of this development has been delayed until the
end of the Study Period.
Portola Springs: Surrounding SR 241 north of the Great Park is a large area that is expected to
add both jobs and households during the Study Period. This area (TIC PA 6) is somewhat
constrained in its expansion prospects because of the hilly terrain, especially to the east.
Despite its geographic challenges, it is expected to expand to hold close to 4,000 additional
households and 600,000 square feet of commercial and office development over the Study
Period.
Rancho Mission Viejo: Rancho Mission Viejo is a 23,000-acre area of Unincorporated Orange
County approximately between the southern border of Rancho Santa Margarita and the Orange
County/San Diego County border. Rancho Mission Viejo is approximately five miles due south
of where SR 241 ends.
Rancho Mission Viejo is planned for close to 5.0 million square feet of non-residential
development with a considerable residential component as well. The PB forecast incorporates
approximately 13,100 jobs by 2035. Based on conversations with Rancho Mission Viejo
planners, the residential plan for the ranch is scaled at 14,000 units, about half single family and
half multifamily. As many as 6,000 dwelling units will be in age qualified portions of the
development.
Planning Area 1: PA 1 is located on an unincorporated portion of Orange County, east of the
intersection of SR 261 and north of Portola Parkway. This Irvine Company project is planned for
a build-out of 3,900 homes by 2035.
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May 9, 2012
4.43
Northwood / Woodbury: To the east of where SR 261 and Interstate 5 intersect (PAs 5, 8 and
9), a collection of large Irvine Company projects are under development. Some of the only
successful residential developments in Orange County right now are located in this area. This
area will be developed with approximately 9,000 new dwelling units and a mix of commercial
space that will house thousands of employees. The development program is expected to
continue through 2035, though the non-residential portion is not expected to gain momentum
until after 2020.
Tustin Legacy Project: To the east of where SR 261 ends is the former Tustin Marine Base. The
1,600-acre Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Tustin closed in 1999 and the City of Tustin is the
lead local redevelopment authority.
The specific reuse plan calls for a mix of low, medium and medium-high density residential
development totaling approximately 2,100 dwelling units and 6.7 million square feet of non
residential space, though there are other projects being developed around the fringe of the
former air base. The Tustin Legacy project is one of the largest development projects in Orange
County and, especially due to its central location, will have a significant impact on SR 91 traffic.
Complete build-out of the Legacy Project is expected to take over 25 years. By the end of the
Study Period, the area will house over 16,000 employees and several thousand households.
200 acres of land has been set aside for schools and parks.
Heritage Fields: The former MCAS El Toro (now a Five Point Communities project called
Heritage Fields) is located on the northeast side of I-5, where I-405 veers off to the west.
Heritage Fields has been annexed by the City of Irvine for development into the “Great Park”
which will add approximately 5,000 homes, 1.2 million square feet of non -residential space, and
provide 4,000 acres of open space. This development is in addition to recreational and
educational development that will be located at the Great Park.
Developers expect to begin construction in 2012 with the first residential units being available
in 2013. Non-residential development will follow. The project is expected to take at least 15
years to complete.
Spectrum Entertainment: In the triangle formed by SR 133, Interstate 405 and Interstate 5 is a
regional mall, a collection of office buildings, and some new rental resid ential development (PA
33). This area has several sizable vacant parcels that are planned for commercial building by
various parties, including the Irvine Company. This development is underway and is expected
to add 3,600 employees and as much as 1.8 mil lion square feet of office space. Future non-
residential development in neighboring PAs 31, 13, and 12 to the northwest will house an
additional 15,000 employees.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
5-1
5.0 Travel Demand Model
The objective of the travel demand modeling process was the creation of a forecasting process
that utilizes the best available data and modeling tools to estimate demand for the extension of
the 91 Express Lanes into Riverside County. In preparation for model development and
calibration, Stantec evaluated the various travel demand models available in the Southern
California region and obtained extensive traffic, highway network and socioeconomic data for
model input.
5.1 MODEL EVALUATION
At the start of this project, three models whose geographic scope covered the Orange/Riverside
County region in Southern California were evaluated for their appropriateness, robustness and
accuracy for investment grade assessments: Orange County Transportation Analysis Model
(OCTAM) v3.3; Riverside County Traffic Analysis Model (RivTAM) in Tranplan; and Riverside
County Traffic Analysis Model (RivTAM) in TransCAD. Evaluation focused on recent
development and calibration efforts, the geographic extents of the roadway networks, the
detail reflected by the traffic analysis zone structure and the level of trip purpose and vehicle
class stratification carried through the modeling steps. Table 5-1 on the following page details
the findings of the evaluation of each model.
The RivTAM/TransCAD was deemed the most appropriate base on which to build a robust
model for developing traffic and revenue forecasts for the extension of the 91 Express Lanes
into Riverside County. This model is the most recently developed and exhibits the most
comprehensive and sophisticated modeling in the Southern California region. Additionally, the
model is appropriately focused on the western, more densely populated portion of Riv erside
County, the location of this project’s study corridor. Even so, some aspects of the model
warranted additional refinement to build an investment grade forecasting model that satisfies
the unique requirements of the project. It was determined that the model should be enhanced
with the development of an intermediate forecast year with appropriate inputs, the integration
of a toll diversion curve into the traffic assignment model, refinements to the roadway
networks, and additional calibration and validation specifically focused on the project corridor.
The enhanced model, as presented in this report, was subsequently d eemed fit for the purpose
of predicting future demand for the extension of the 91 Express Lanes into Riverside County.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5-2
Table 5-1
Model Evaluation Summary
Criterion OCTAM 3.3 RivTAM/Tranplan RivTAM/TransCAD
Most Recent Development Year 2009 2007 2009
Time of Day Capabilities 4 assignment periods: AM peak, midday,
PM peak, night
4 assignment periods: AM peak, midday,
PM peak, night
4 assignment periods: AM peak, midday,
PM peak, night
Vehicle Class Stratification SOV, HOV2, HOV3+ SOV, HOV2, HOV3+ SOV, HOV2, HOV3+
Toll Diversion Capabilities
Toll/free diversion is a nest within mode
choice; toll and free trips are assigned
separately
Toll/free diversion is a nest within mode
choice; toll and free trips are assigned
separately
None (4)
Software Platform Tranplan 9.1 (with some Fortran) Tranplan 9.1 (with some Fortran) TransCAD 5.0
Trip Purposes within Trip
Generation (1)
HBWD, HBWS, HBU, SCH, HBS, HBSR,
HBO, OBO, WBO, TRK, EXT
HBWD, HBWS, HBU, SCH, HBS, HBSR,
HBO, OBO, WBO, TRK, EXT
HBWD, HBWS, HBSC, HBCU, HBSH, HBSR,
HBSP, HBO, WBO, OBO, TRK, EXT (3)
Separate Truck Trip Purpose Only in trip generation Only in trip generation In trip generation, distribution and
assignment
Geographic Extents 5 SCAG counties 5 SCAG counties plus northern San Diego
County
5 SCAG counties plus Imperial County,
includes Eastern portions of San
Bernardino & Riverside Counties
Zone System 3025 zones; 130 in Riverside County 4694 zones; 612 in Riverside County 5616 zones; 1807 in Riverside County
Forecast Year Input Data 2005, 2035 (2) 2000, 2015, 2030 2007/2008, 2035
Stantec Experience Extensive Effectively same as OCTAM In Progress
Notes:
(1) HBWD = Home-Based Work Direct trips (travel directly between home and work with no intermediate stop), HBWS = Home -Based Work Strategic trips
(travel to an intermediate stop between home and work). HBWD and HBWS are stratified by 3 household income levels . HBSC = Home-Based School,
HBCU = Home-Based College/University, HBS = Home-Based Shopping, HBSR = Home-Based Social/Recreational, HBSP = Home-Based Serving
Passenger, HBO = Home-Based Other, OBO = Non-Home-Based Other-Based Other, WBO = Non-Home-Based Work-Based Other, TRK = Trucks (Light,
Medium and Heavy), EXT = External. In OCTAM and RivTAM/Tranplan, TRK trips are not carried forward into distribution or assi gnment.
(2) Stantec has previously estimated input data for 2010 and 2020.
(3) Includes sub-model for seasonal travel in Coachella Valley area.
(4) Network has a Toll field used in a generalized cost calculation during assignment, but no toll/free path split is done in mod e choice or assignment.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.3
5.2 MODEL STRUCTURE AND PROCESS
With the use of the RivTAM modeling platform, the regional travel demand modeling process
for this project is structured to leverage both the regionally focused planning procedures
developed by Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and the Riverside County
focused planning procedures developed by Riverside County Transportation and Land
Management Agency (RCTLMA). The model is based on the conventional four-step approach to
travel demand forecasting, which estimates person-trips generated by land use in each zone,
distributes these trips between zones, splits the trips among available modes of transportation,
and then assigns automobile trips to the highway network. The process is then repeated (with
each iteration utilizing estimated speeds from the previous iteration) until the difference
between subsequent assignments is negligible. This outcome is generally referred to as a state
of network equilibrium. In the RivTAM model, this standard trip generation to traffic
assignment “loop” is executed five times so that input speeds for trip distribution are in
reasonable agreement with the highway speeds output from traffic assignment.
For use in this project, the RivTAM model was used specifically to predict vehicular traffic within
the project corridor for a variety of analysis years and time periods. The base model year for
this project is 2010 and the forecast model years are 2020 and 2035. The inputs to the base
model are developed to represent actual 2010 conditions. Inputs for the forecast year models
are based on assumptions and estimates of future roadway improvements, changes in land use
and other socioeconomic inputs, as well as other relevant parameters. For each model year,
four specific time periods are modeled, representing peak period conditions as well as midday
and night conditions. The hours included in each of these periods are as follows:
AM Peak Period: 6:00 AM – 9:00 AM
Midday Period: 9:00 AM – 3:00 PM
PM Peak Period: 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
Night Period: 7:00 PM – 6:00 AM
For each of these periods vehicle trips for several trip purposes and vehicle occupancy levels
are estimated along with several groups of commercial vehicle types. The trip purpose
categories provided by the model are as follows:
• Home-Based Work Direct (HBWD)
• Home-Based Work Strategic
o Home-Based Intermediate (HBWS-HBI)
o Intermediate-Based Work (HBWS-IBW)
• Home-Based School (HBSC)
• Home-Based College/University (HBCU)
• Home-Based Shopping (HBSH)
• Home-Based Serving-Passenger (HBSP)
• Home-Based Other (HBO)
• Work-Based Other (WBO)
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.4
• Other-Based Other (OBO)
For each of the trip purposes above, trips are further stratified by auto occupancy categories:
• SOV
• HOV2
• HOV3+
Additional vehicle trip types estimated (or directly input into) by the model include:
• Airport trips (stratified by the auto occupancy categories above)
• Truck trips (stratified by Light, Medium, and Heavy)
• Port Trips (stratified by Autos, Bobtails, Chassis, and Containers)
5.3 TOLL DIVERSION MODEL
The RivTAM model implements tolls as a component of the generalized cost function, utilizing a
toll-based time penalty on toll roads along with an estimated value of time to reflect the
additional cost of tolled facilities in minutes. Additionally, tolled facilities in the RivTAM model
are stratified by only two vehicle occupancy classes, namely single occupancy and HOV2+.
Because the extension of the 91 Express Lanes into Riverside County will be most attractive
during the peak commuting periods, it was desired to stratify the toll model by trip purpose, as
well as represent the tolling of SOV, HOV2, and HOV3+ vehicle classes separately. To improve
the modeling of driver responses and provide full stratification by vehicle occupancy class, a toll
diversion assignment model was added to the RivTAM model.
The toll diversion model adopted for this project is based on a toll diversion modeling process
utilizing a logit-based route choice model embedded within an equilibrium traffic assignment
routine to calculate the percentage of tolled trips for a given origin/destination interchange and
can be stratified as necessary. The original model was developed in 2001 for several trip
purposes using stated preference data. Since its initial development, the model has been
refined as it has been calibrated and applied successfully for tolling projects in other regions
throughout the United States, including projects in Delaware, California, Texas, and Virginia.
The structure of the toll diversion model is defined as follows:
Toll Share = 1 / (1 + eU)
Toll Share = Probability of selecting a toll road
e = Natural Logarithm
U = “Utility” of Toll Route
a * (TimeTR-TimeFR) + b * Cost
TimeTR = Toll road travel time in minutes
TimeFR = Nontoll road travel time in minutes
Cost = Toll in dollars
a,b = Coefficients
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.5
Figure 5-1 shows the general structure of the enhanced model, including the addition of the toll
diversion assignment model.
Figure 5-1
Model Structure with Toll Diversion Assignment Model.
For the toll diversion assignment model, the detailed trip purposes carried through the RivTAM
model were aggregated to four trip purposes, each representing distinct values of time and
route choice behaviors:
• Home-Based Work (HBW)
• Home-Based Other (HBO)
• Non-Home Based (NHB)
• Truck (TRK)
Roadway Network
Socioeconomic Inputs
Other Model inputs
RivTAM Model in TransCAD
(Toll Time Penalty)
Aggregated Vehicle Trip Tables by Time Period
SOV,
HOV2,
HOV3+
SOV,
HOV2,
HOV3+
SOV,
HOV2,
HOV3+
HBW Trips
HBO Trips
NHB Trips
TRK Trips
Roadway Network
Toll Diversion Inputs
Equilibrium Assignment with Toll Diversion
Non-Toll
Skims Toll Skims
Eq
u
i
l
i
b
r
i
u
m
A
s
s
i
g
n
m
e
n
t
I
t
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
s
Toll Diversion Model
Equilibrium Traffic
Assignment
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.6
Stantec has developed and refined toll diversion coefficients in the Southern California region
as part of multiple studies throughout the past ten years. Initial coefficients from the toll
diversion process have been refined based on regional income data and revealed preference
data on the existing toll roads in the Southern California region. Table 5-2 summarizes the
coefficients utilized for this study.
Table 5-2
Toll Diversion Coefficients
Trip
Purpose
a, time coeff
(minutes)
b, toll coeff
(dollars)
VOT
( 1989$/hour)
HBW -0.100 -0.5832 $10.29
HBO -0.100 -0.7779 $7.71
NHB -0.100 -0.6806 $8.82
TRK -0.100 -0.3526 $17.02
5.4 MODEL INPUTS
Inputs to the RivTAM model are currently developed for two model years, a 2007/2008 existing
year and a 2035 forecast year. To develop the 2010 and 2020 model years, inputs to all steps of
the model were updated to their corresponding 2010 and 2020 values as necessary. For many
inputs it was deemed appropriate to interpolate betwee n the 2007/2008 and 2035 RivTAM
model years using an average annual growth rate. To prepare the roadway network, extensive
modification was required to incorporate past and future planned roadway projects in and
around the study corridor. The primary sources for network improvements were the 2010 SR-
91 Implementation Plan, the 2008 RTP Amendment 4, the 2008 RTIP, and freely available aerial
imagery.
5.5 BASE MODEL YEAR INPUTS
The 2010 base model year was selected as it is the most recent year for which socio economic,
roadway network, and actual traffic count data is available. The inputs to the 2010 base model
year were developed in part by pivoting off of both the 2007/2008 and 2035 RivTAM model
year inputs. For many inputs, such as external trip tables, an average annual growth rate was
calculated and applied to bring the inputs up to the 2010 model year. Updated socioeconomic
inputs, as detailed in Chapter 4 of this report, were developed by PB to reflect actual 2010
conditions.
To prepare the 2010 roadway network, projects completed pre-2007/2008 and 2008-2010
roadway improvements were verified against completed project lists and aerial imagery. The
2007/2008 RivTAM roadway network was modified as necessary to represent 2010 conditions.
Highway improvements throughout the region and localized improvements in the area
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.7
surrounding the study corridor were incorporated. Table 5-3 below details network
improvements in and around the study corridor deemed important to the extension of the 91
Express Lanes into Riverside County that were completed by 2010.
5.6 FORECAST MODEL YEAR INPUTS, 2020
The first forecast model year selected was 2020. As the extension of the 91 Express Lanes into
Riverside County is currently scheduled to open on in 2017, the 2020 model year allows for
forecasting a post-ramp up condition, where fluctuations in driver’s route decisions have
leveled off and tolls have been adjusted to appropriate levels.
As mentioned previously, the RivTAM model only provides 2007/2008 and 2035 model year
inputs. As such, inputs for the 2020 model were developed in similar fashion to the 2010
inputs. For many inputs, such as external trip tables, an average annual growth rate was
calculated and applied to bring the inputs up to the 2020 model year. Updated socioeconomic
inputs, as detailed in Chapter 4 of this report, were developed by PB to reflect forecasted 2020
conditions.
To prepare the 2020 roadway network, the 2010 roadway network was modified to represent
the most recent assumptions for expected 2020 conditions. Planned highway improvements
throughout the region and localized improvements in the area surrounding the stu dy corridor
were researched and evaluated for their potential for completion by 2020. Projects of
particular relevance to the extension of the 91 Express Lanes into Riverside County were
discussed with sponsoring agencies as appropriate. Table 5-3 below details network
improvements in and around the study corridor deemed important to the extension of the 91
Express Lanes into Riverside County that are expected to be completed by 2020. Network
modifications were made with consideration for roadway geometry defined in the 2035 RivTAM
roadway network in order to maintain consistency between model years.
5.7 FORECAST MODEL YEAR INPUTS, 2035
The 2035 forecast model year was selected because the inputs are well defined in the RivTAM
model. As such, many inputs to the 2035 model only required reasonableness checking.
Updated socioeconomic inputs, as detailed in Chapter 4 of this report, were develop ed by PB to
reflect forecasted 2035 conditions.
The 2035 roadway network provided with the RivTAM model was verified and updated as
necessary to reflect the most recent assumptions for expected 2035 conditions. Planned
highway improvements throughout the region and localized improvements in the area
surrounding the study corridor were researched and evaluated for their potential for
completion by 2035. Projects of particular relevance to the extension of the 91 Express Lanes
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.8
into Riverside County were discussed with sponsoring agencies as appropriate. Table 5-3
details network improvements in and around the study corridor deemed important to the SR -
91 Riverside County Express Lanes Project that are expected to be completed by 2035.
Table 5-3
Relevant Network Improvements
5.8 MODEL TOLLS
The 2007/2008 and 2035 RivTAM roadway networks contained tolls at all toll facilities covered
by the model. In preparing both the 2010 and 2020 networks, the derivation of these tolls
Network Improvement 2010 Base
Network
2020 Base
Network
2035 Base
Network Additional Comments
SR-91, add 1 EB GP, SR-241 to SR-71 o x x Completed in 2010 after calibration data was
collected. Makes 5 GP lanes.
SR-91, add 1 GP, SR-55 to SR-241 o x x Makes 5 GP lanes.
SR-91, add 1 GP, SR-71 to I-15 o x x Makes 5 GP lanes.
SR-91, add C/D Road, Main to I-15 o x x
SR-91, convert existing HOV lane to Express
lane, add 1 Express lane per direction,
Orange/Riverside County Line through I-15
o x x
2 Express Lanes / direction, provides mixing
area with Orange County Express lanes at
Orange/Riverside County Line
SR-91 / I-15, add direct connector, west on SR-
91 Express lanes to/from south on I-15
Express Lanes
o x x Tolled direct connectors, 1 lane/direction.
SR-91 / SR-71 Interchange & EB C/D Road o x x Completion based on a 2-year construction
period following the SR-91 CIP completionin
SR-91, add 1 WB GP, Tustin Ave o x x Makes 4 GP lanes.
SR-91 / SR-241, add Direct Connectors
to/from east on SR-91 o x x Tolled direct connectors, 1 lane/direction.
SR-91, add 1 GP, SR-57 to SR-55 o o x
SR-91, Fairmont Blvd IC o o x
SR-91, add 1 GP, SR-241 to SR-71 o o x Based on meeting Measure A voter
commitment by 2039. Makes 6 GP lanes.
MIS Corridor A o o o
MIS Corridor B (Irvine-Corona Expressway)o o o
SR-241, Weir Canyon Interchange o o x
Foothill South (construct)o x x
Foothill South (widen)o o x
I-15, add 1 Express lane/direction, SR-60 to El
Cerrito o x x Based on I-15 CIP phase 1.
I-15, add 1 GP lane/direction, SR-60 to El o o o Based on I-15 CIP phase 2 (completion by
I-15 / SR-91, add direct connector, west on SR-
91 Express lanes to/from north on I-15
Express Lanes
o o o Based on I-15 CIP phase 2 (completion by
2039).
Mid-County Parkway, east of I-215 o o x
CETAP West, I-15 to I-215 (formerly MCP from
I-15 to I-215)o o x
I-10, add HOV lane, I-605 to SR-57 o x x
I-210, LA County Line to I-215 x x x Completed.
SR-38, High Desert Corridor o o x
o = not included in model year network
x = included in model year network
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.9
could not be determined nor their values verified against toll schedules from prior years. To
better represent the 2010 base year tolls, a model toll schedule was prepared based on actual
toll schedules obtained for each of the toll facilities in the roadway network. For the future
year 2020 and 2035 roadway networks, the long term growth rate of tolls was assumed to
parallel inflation, and tolls at new toll facilities were based on previous studies of those
facilities, comparable toll roads in the region, or tolls provided in the 2035 RivTAM roadway
network.
5.9 CALIBRATION & VALIDATION OF THE MODEL
A significant component of model development is the collection, collation and summarization
of data representing existing conditions to compare against predictions from the model. This
process, called calibration and validation, is essential to developing the model to an investment
grade standard. Calibration and validation of the enhanced RivTAM model focused primarily on
the study corridor with the objective of reasonably replicating 2010 demand in and around this
corridor. Additional limited calibration was done with respect to time-of-day and vehicle
occupancy.
5.10 DATA SOURCES
To support the calibration and validation process, the extensive project specific data was
collected. These data focused on:
Detailed highway volumes within and around the SR-91 corridor
Toll data and tolled traffic information for the toll diversion model
Origin-Destination flows through the project corridor
Travel time data in the project corridor
The Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) count database was examined as the
primary source of traffic counts. PeMS provides automated daily counts on freeways across
Southern California. A database of detector locations and quality was examined to find count
locations in and around the study area with reliable and properly functioning detectors. While
some locations had only one detector recording bi-directional traffic, most had two detectors
each recording a single direction, and a few with locations with HOV lanes had four. This
project’s traffic data subcontractor (DKS) extracted data for these locations by 15 minute period
averaged over all weekdays (excluding holidays) between mid-September and mid-November
2010. In addition, DKS took separate counts in early November 2010 at the seven locations
shown in Figure 5-2. A complete summary of the data collected was detailed in Chapter 3
earlier in this report.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.10
Figure 5-2
Count Locations
5.11 CALIBRATION & VALIDATION PROCESS
To validate the assignment accuracy of the model, all available counts were aggregated by the
four time periods defined by the model and posted to the appropriate links in the 2010
roadway network, and a toll diversion assignment was performed. It was found that on a daily
basis the model was producing acceptable volume/count ratios, but that the model was not
producing acceptable aggregate volume/count ratios by time period. A simplified approach
was developed using trip table adjustment factors for each time period to bring the aggregate
volume/count ratios by time period closer to acceptable levels.
Early model runs also revealed that the model tended to overestimate the number of trips
using HOV lanes in and around the study corridor. To bring aggregate HOV lane volume/count
ratios closer to acceptable levels, an adjustment factor was applied to the HOV2 and HOV3+
trip tables to decrease the number of HOV trips in the model. The difference in trips was added
back into the trip tables as SOV trips, such that the total number of trips was unchanged by trip
purpose and time period. To further adjust the HOV lane volume/count ratios, t he speed and
capacity of the HOV lanes, initially determined by the RivTAM model, were reduced by 20% and
30%, respectively, to represent the additional impedance associated with weaving into and out
of the HOV lanes, other access/egress restrictions and bus volumes.
The above adjustments each improved the aggregate volume/count ratios of the 2010
assignment. It was decided to perform a more comprehensive and detailed adjustment of the
trip tables, to reflect micro-level errors in the zone-to-zone trip tables that were preventing the
assigned volumes from being close enough to the counts. This was done using a procedure that
automatically adjusts a trip table in response to count data. The procedure utilized is called
Adaptable Assignment (AA). This process has been documented in technical papers and has
been used in several prior studies.
5
4
3
2
7
6
1
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.11
The adaptable assignment process iterates through the trip tables one O/D pair at a time,
compares the total volume on the assigned route with the total of the counts on the assigned
route and adjusts the number of trips for that O/D pa ir based on the volume/count ratio. A
new assignment is performed using the adjusted trip tables, and the process repeated. For this
project, the process was repeated for four iterations. Finally, the starting trip tables are
subtracted from the final trip tables to derive a calibration adjustment table. For the forecast
model years, the calibration tables are added to the trip tables produced by the model to
produce the final trip tables that are used for assignment.
The result of the calibration adjustments above is a model that reflects the most recent travel
forecasting work in the region, has been enhanced with a state -of-the-art toll diversion model,
and which matches the 2010 count data reasonably well. While there are no nationally
accepted guidelines that define reasonably well quantitatively, the most recent and relevant
guidance is found in the Federal Highway Administration’s Travel Model Improvement Program
document Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking, Se cond Edition, September
2010. This report says that the best indicators for judging assignment accuracy are the
aggregate volume/count ratio and the percent root-mean-square error (%RMSE). The %RMSE
is a more stringent statistic, as it treats all errors (high or low) the same and is based on the
square of assigned volume vs. count difference. While this document does not provide a
specific Federal standard on what level of accuracy is acceptable, it does summarize the %RMSE
guidelines used in Ohio, Florida, and Oregon, as shown in Figure 5-3. This figure represents
daily assignments. Table 5-4 presents aggregate volume/count accuracy criteria, stratified by
facility type, from an earlier version of the FHWA report.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.12
Figure 5-3
%RMSE Assignment Accuracy Guidelines
Source of graphic: Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking, Second Edition , prepared by Cambridge
Systematics for FHWA, September 2010.
Table 5-4
Volume/Count Assignment Accuracy Criteria by Functional Classification
Functional Classification Volume/Count Error
Freeway ±7%
Principal Arterial ±10%
Minor Arterial ±15%
Collector ±25%
Source: Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual, prepared by Barton-Aschman Associates and
Cambridge Systematics for FHWA, February 1997.
Figure 5-4 presents the %RMSE for link groups based on daily link volume for the enhan ced
RivTAM Model, along with a logarithmic trend line. It can be seen that for most link groups,
%RMSE is in line with or lower than the levels depicted in Figure 5-3. One point, representing
the HOV lanes has a high %RMSE, however, given the difficulties in forecasting HOV volumes
detailed earlier in the chapter, this point is not considered problematic.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Travel Demand Model
May 9, 2012
5.13
Figure 5-4
Enhanced RivTAM Model %RMSE Assignment Accuracy
Table 5-5 presents the Volume/Count Error and %RMSE for the enhance d RivTAM model
grouped by facility type. It can be seen that the Volume/Count Error in the enhanced RivTAM
model is generally lower than the levels depicted in Table 5-4. Table 5-6 presents the
Volume/Count Error and %RMSE for the enhanced RivTAM model grouped by time period.
Table 5-5
Enhanced RivTAM Model Volume/Count Assignment Accuracy by Facility Type
Facility Type Volume/Count Error %RMSE
Freeway -3.8% 9.6%
Expressway -5.3% 13.7%
HOV Lanes -0.3% 43.2%
All Links -3.5% 13.3%
Table 5-6
Enhanced RivTAM Model Volume/Count Assignment Accuracy by Period
Time Period Volume/Count Error %RMSE
AM Peak -0.7% 22.2%
Mid-Day -5.2% 15.4%
PM Peak -0.1% 22.7%
Night -6.3% 16.4%
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
6.1
6.0 Micro-Simulation Model
6.1 OVERVIEW
A micro-simulation model was created and used to model the future operations and potential
traffic and revenue for the proposed Riverside County Express Lanes. Micro-simulation is a
traffic modeling procedure that produces a highly detailed traffic simulation. Vehicles are
individually loaded onto the highway network and their impact on traffic operations are
simulated on a second by second basis. This chapter presents the overall modeling
methodology, existing conditions model development and calibration, and use of the model to
forecast future year 2035 PM peak period conditions.
6.2 METHODOLOGY
PTV’s VISSIM version 5.2 software was used to model the proposed Riverside County Express
Lanes. The simulation was built to model the future year 2035 2 PM to 7 PM period. VISSIM’s
built-in managed use lanes model framework was used to forecast the demand for the
proposed express lanes.
Initially an existing conditions model was created and calibrated in an effort to prove the
model’s ability to accurately replicate existing conditions traffic during the 2 PM to 7 PM period.
Highway network geometry was obtained from aerial photography available from internet
maps and photographs supplied by Google and Microsoft’s Bing.com and survey data. Origin
and destination matrices were built from traffic data collect ed from the Caltrans PEMS
database, Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes traffic data obtained from the Orange County
Transportation Authority (OCTA), and counts independently conducted during November 2010
using Wavetronix and Blufax traffic count technology. The model was calibrated against traffic
count data and travel time data also collected during November 2010.
A future conditions model was created by modifying the existing conditions model’s geometry
based on information from drawings provided by the Project design team as well as knowledge
of projects scheduled in the RTP and 2011 SR 91 Implementation Plan. Future traffic volumes
were developed based on travel demand model forecasts for the year 2035.
Operations were evaluated using model predicted travel time and throughput, and revenue
was predicted by the software’s built-in managed use lanes model.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.2
6.3 EXISTING CONDITIONS MODEL
The purpose of the existing conditions model is to create a model that can be expected to
reliably depict future year conditions. This is accomplished by modeling the existing condition
as surveyed in November 2010, using traffic count data, a set of origin-destination volumes,
network characteristics, and driver behaviors that can replicate observed conditions.
6.3.1 Network Assumptions
The existing conditions model replicates the SR 91 and I-15 highway network as of November
2010, following cessation of construction of the SR 91 EB auxiliary lane between SR 241 and SR
71, but prior to its opening. The extents of the model, shown in Figure 6-1, are:
SR 91 west of Tustin Avenue
SR 55 south of SR 91
SR 91 east of Pierce Street
I-15 north of 2nd Street
I-15 south of Cajalco Road
Figure 6-1
Existing Conditions Micro simulation Model Study Area
The network’s western extents were chosen to be west of Tustin Avenue and just south of SR
91 on SR 55 because these locations serve as the two portals from which traffic can make the
decision to use the Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes or the adjacent free general purpose
lanes. Managed use lane decision coefficients for both the existing SR 91 Express Lanes and
proposed extension into Riverside County were developed based on modeling of this de cision.
The eastern and southern extents of SR 91 east of Pierce Street and I -15 south of Cajalco Road
reflect locations where recurring PM peak period congestion is known to end. These locations
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.3
are local bottlenecks that cause recurring congestion and queuing that impact upstream
segments of SR 91. The northern extent of I-15 north of 2nd Street reflects the point at which
the number of lanes on I-15 north of SR 91 stabilizes at three lanes per direction. Table 6-1 lists
by segment and direction the number of lanes coded for the general purpose lanes, SR 91
Express Lanes, and Riverside County HOV lanes. The number of lanes on freeways and ramps in
the study area were identified using a combination of aerial photography from Google’s
internet mapping website (maps.google.com) and Microsoft’s Bing.com, traffic counts, and site
visits.
Table 6-1
SR 91, Existing Conditions Model Number of Lanes
Segment EB GP EB HOV/T WB GP WB HOV/T
SR 55 to Lakeview 6 2 5 1
Through Lakeview 5 2 5 2
Lakeview to Imperial 5 2 5 2
Through Imperial 4 2 4 2
Imperial to Weir 4 2 4 2
Through Weir 4 2 4 2
Weir to 241 5 2 5 2
241 to Gypsum West 4 2 4 2
Through Gypsum 4 2 4 2
Gypsum to 241 East 4 2 4 2
241 to CL 4 2 5 2
CL to Green River 4 2 (Start HOV) 6 1
Through Green River 4 2 6 1
Green River to SR 71 4 1 5 1
Through SR 71 4 1 4 1
SR 71 to Serfas Club 5 1 5 1
Through Serfas Club 4 1 4 1
Serfas Club to Maple 5 1 5 1
Through Maple 4 1 4 1
Maple to Lincoln 4 1 4 1
Through Lincoln 5 0 4 1
Lincoln to 2nd 4 1 4 1
2nd to Main St 4 1 5 0
Through Main St 4 1 4 1
Main St to I-15 5 1 5 1
Through I-15 3 1 3 1
I-15 to McKinley 4 1 4 1
Through McKinley 3 1 3 1
McKinley to Pierce Street 3 1 3 1
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.4
Table 6-2
I-15, Existing Conditions Model Number of Lanes
Segment SB GP NB GP
North of 2nd Street 3 3
2nd Street to Hidden Valley Pkwy 4 4
Hidden Valley Pkwy to SR 91 4 4
SR 91 to Magnolia Avenue 5 4
Magnolia Avenue to Ontario Ave 4 4
Ontario Ave to El Cerrito Road 4 3
El Cerrito Road to Cajalco Road 3 3
South of Cajalco Road 3 3
6.3.2 Volume Assumptions
For the existing model year, traffic counts over the period were collected to develop demand
volumes. Demand volumes were created by combining entry ramp, exit ramp, and eastbound
mainline count data on SR 91 west of SR 55 and on SR 55, and westbound mainl ine data from
SR 91 east of I-15, and from I-15 direct connector data. Input traffic data came from a variety of
sources as listed in Table 6-3.
Table 6-3
Micro simulation Model Existing Volume Sources
Location Data Source
SR 91 Express Lanes OCTA transaction data
SR 91 GP and HOV lanes, and I-15 mainline Wavetronix and PEMS data
SR 241 direct connector volumes TCA transaction and PEMS data
SR 71 and I-15 direct connector volumes Wavetronix and Blufax OD data
All other ramps PEMS short term and long term count data
As demonstrated in Chapter 3, the SR 91 eastbound general purpose lanes operate at
conditions that exceed capacity during the PM peak period. To reflect the demand overcapacity
condition, traffic demand exceeding traffic count levels were input into the micro-simulation
model. The SR 91 GP lanes experience heavy congestion and queuing throughout the PM peak
period (3-7 PM), and at certain locations during the 2-3 PM shoulder hour. Queues can be
observed developing at various chokepoints; 1) the eastbound segment east of SR 241, 2)
segments between SR 71 and I-15, where the GP lanes drop from 5 to 4 lanes, along with
weaving of vehicles entering and exiting via ramps, and vehicles weaving in and out of HOV
lanes, and 3) through McKinley and Pierce Streets where the eastbound GP lanes drop from
four to three general purpose lanes.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.5
The aggregation of entry ramp, exit ramp, and edge of network mainline entry volumes
resulted in a distribution of general purpose traffic demand from 2 PM to 7 PM that exceeds
levels counted in the field. Figure 6-2 through Figure 6-5 compare eastbound GP lane counts
and input demand.
Figure 6-2
Existing Conditions SR 241 to CL, EB GP Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-3
Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, EB GP Demand vs. Count
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
%
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SR 241 to County Line, EB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
%
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SR 71 to Serfas Club, EB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.6
Figure 6-4
Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, EB GP Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-5
Existing Conditions I-15 to McKinley Street, EB GP Demand vs. Count
Eastbound Express lane and HOV lane demand levels were set to match traffic counts. Figure
6-6 through Figure 6-9 demonstrate that at all four locations demand and counts match or are
similar to each other.
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1p-2p 2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p
%
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Main Street to I-15, EB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1p-2p 2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p
%
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I-15 to McKinley, EB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.7
Figure 6-6
Existing Conditions SR 241 to CL, EB Express Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-7
Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, EB HOV Demand vs. Count
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
l
u
m
e
SR 241 to County Line, EB Express
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
l
u
m
e
SR 71 to Serfas Club, EB HOV
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.8
Figure 6-8
Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, EB HOV Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-9
Existing Conditions I-15 to McKinley Street, EB HOV Demand vs. Count
The westbound general purpose and HOV lanes in Riverside County were observed to typically
operate without congestion during the 2 PM to 7 PM period. Based on these observations,
input demand should match or be similar to counted traffic levels. General purpose lane
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
l
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m
e
Main Street to I-15, EB HOV
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
l
u
m
e
I-15 to McKinley, EB HOV
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.9
demand and counts are within a small range of error at two critical locations, be tween SR 241
and Green River Road, and between I-15 and Main Street. These locations are located at the
western and eastern ends of the proposed Riverside County Express Lanes. Input demand at
the location between SR 71 and Serfas Club Road exceed counted levels while the location east
of I-15 is below counted levels. Neither the over or underestimation are critical to the overall
model calibration since the westbound lanes would still operate below capacity in both existing
and future PM peak periods. HOV lane demand match or are similar to counts at all four
locations.
Figure 6-10
Existing Conditions SR 241 to CL, WB GP Demand vs. Count
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
M
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SR 241 to County Line, WB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.10
Figure 6-11
Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, WB GP Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-12
Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, WB GP Demand vs. Count
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
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SR 71 to Serfas Club, WB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
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Main St to I-15, WB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.11
Figure 6-13
Existing Conditions McKinley Street to I-15, WB GP Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-14
Existing Conditions SR 241 to Green River Road, WB Express Demand vs. Count
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1p-2p 2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p
M
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I-15 to McKinley, WB GP
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
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SR 241 to Green River Road, WB Express
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.12
Figure 6-15
Existing Conditions SR 71 to Serfas Club, WB HOV Demand vs. Count
Figure 6-16
Existing Conditions Main Street to I-15, WB HOV Demand vs. Count
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
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m
e
Serfas Club to SR 71, WB HOV
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
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I-15 to Main Street, WB HOV
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.13
Figure 6-17
Existing Conditions McKinley Street to I-15, WB HOV Demand vs. Count
To ensure that eastbound input traffic demand did not over or under estimate actual demand,
it is necessary to identify the hours preceding and following the first hour and last hour where
congestion, and therefore demand exceeding capacity exists. From a review of traffic and
speed data presented in Chapter 3, the 1 -2 PM and 7-8 PM hours can be seen to have little to
no congestion. Collectively, traffic counted during the 1-8 PM hours, and demand estimated
during the same time period should match or be within a small percentage of each other. Table
6-4 compares total traffic counts with total estimated demand at four segments in the corridor,
and demonstrates that estimated demand deviates from the overall counts by no more than
2.6, and is as close as 0.2 percent.
Table 6-4
SR 91 Eastbound Global (GP & HOV) Traffic Count vs. Estimated Demand, 1-8 PM
Heavy Vehicle Distribution
Wavetronix traffic counts classified vehicles into three size classes, small, medium, and large,
which correspond to vehicle lengths (vehicles less than 30 feet are small, 30 to 40 feet are
medium, and 40+ feet are large vehicles). The data demonstrate that the percentage of large
vehicles traveling eastbound vary from 1.1 percent to 3.2 percent over t he course of the 2 PM
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2p-3p 3p-4p 4p-5p 5p-6p 6p-7p
Vo
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e
McKinley Street to I-15, WB HOV
DEMAND COUNT VOLUME
Segment Count Estimated Demand % Difference
241 to CL 62,013 63,655 2.6%
SR 71 to Serfas 56,186 56,313 0.2%
Main St To I-15 61,613 60,724 -1.4%
I-15 to McKinley 47,286 48,268 2.1%
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.14
to 7 PM period and across the four survey locations. Westbound percentages vary from 1.6
percent to 4.1 percent. The ranges of large vehicle percentages are relatively small and not
expected to have significant impact on the simulation results. Therefore as a simplifying
assumption, heavy vehicle percentages by direction were estimated for each hour and direction
by averaging the percentages observed at each of the four count locations. Table 6-5 presents
the hourly heavy vehicle percentages input for the eastbound and westbound directions.
Table 6-5
Count vs. Estimated Large Truck and Bus Percentages
Origin and Destination Matrix
Volumes for entry and exit ramps were developed from an hourly balanced demand origin and
destination (O/D) matrix for the 2 PM to 7 PM time period. Using a matrix of O/D patterns from
the RivTAM travel demand model, O/D trip matrices were developed from on/off ramps
volumes for each hour. To better calibrate trip patterns on SR-91 near the I-15 interchange,
Blufax O/D data was used as a target and O/D seed matrices were adjusted to match those
targets. Table 6-6 presents summary level O/D volumes input into the existing conditions
model.
Table 6-6
Existing Conditions O/D Demand Table, 2-7 PM
Eastbound Westbound
Time
Used in
simulation
SR 241 to
Green
River Rd
SR 71 to
Serfas
Club
Main St to
I-15
I-15 to
McKinley
Used in
simulation
SR 241 to
Green
River Rd
SR 71 to
Serfas
Club
Main St to
I-15
I-15 to
McKinley
2-3 PM 2.8%3.2%2.1%3.2%2.4%3.3%2.6%3.5%2.9%4.1%
3-4 PM 2.3%2.8%1.7%2.5%2.1%2.7%2.2%2.9%2.5%3.4%
4-5 PM 2.5%3.0%1.3%3.2%2.5%2.2%1.9%2.3%1.9%2.8%
5-6 PM 2.0%2.5%1.2%2.3%2.2%1.8%1.7%1.9%1.6%1.9%
6-7 PM 1.6%1.9%1.1%1.8%1.6%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.1%2.7%
Origin/Destination
West of
SR-55 SR-55
B'twn
SR-55 &
SR-241 SR-241
Green River
& SR-71
B'twn
SR-71 &
I-15 I-15 North I-15 South East of I-15 Total
West of SR-55 6,650 8,600 11,100 200 2,100 3,150 1,400 2,650 4,500 35,850
SR-55 10,500 8,250 0 3,500 2,900 2,050 2,700 5,550 29,900
B'twn SR-55 & SR-241 8,950 9,550 1,350 1,600 4,650 1,400 1,000 850 2,200 29,350
SR-241 400 0 3,200 3,150 1,050 1,650 950 2,600 10,400
Green River & SR-71 1,400 1,600 2,500 900 1,950 2,550 300 2,400 1,450 13,600
B'twn SR-71 & I-15 2,350 1,200 1,150 300 4,450 1,100 2,600 3,700 7,800 16,850
I-15 North 2,100 1,650 950 1,000 300 2,750 11,400 13,400 5,700 33,550
I-15 South 2,500 1,900 850 750 2,450 2,900 11,200 17,950 7,600 40,500
East of I-15 4,350 2,700 850 1,350 1,200 5,500 4,950 6,100 10,000 27,000
Total 34,850 24,500 29,350 4,750 22,550 17,800 31,600 44,600 37,400 210,000
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.15
6.3.3 Car Following Model Parameters
The simulation principally relies on the use of the freeway lane driving behavior (Wiedemann
99 car following model). The calibration procedure required modifications to VISSIM’s default
freeway driving behaviors. The use of default parameters would result in capacity above
observed levels as well as unrealistic lane changing behavior. In conjunction with information
from published simulation reports (Gomes, Horowitz, Path 2005), parameters were adjusted
based on observations of throughput, travel speeds, and lane changing behavior. The following
general parameters resulted in model results that were representative of observed conditions.
Table 6-7
Car Following Model Parameters
Parameter Link Type
Basic Freeway Hard Curve Heavy Weave
Headway (CC1, sec) 1.1 1.5 1.0
Following (CC4/5) -2.0/-2.0 -2.0/-2.0 -2.0/-2.0
Safety Distance
Reduction Factor
0.30 0.60 0.05
Vehicle Diffusion (sec) 120 120 60
6.3.4 Managed Lanes Coefficients and Tolls
Express lane traffic levels were forecast using Vissim 5.2’s built in managed lanes decision
model. The decision model assigns to each vehicle passing a managed lane decision point a
probability of that vehicle using the Express Lanes. The probability is calculated using a Logit
model of the form:
where
The decision applies only to vehicles that are eligible to use the Express Lanes. Eligible vehicles
were classified as any vehicle that is permitted to use the Express Lanes and also has an origin
and destination that can be served by the Orange County Express Lanes without any back-
tracking. For example any SOV, HOV2+, or bus, but not a heavy truck trip traveling from SR 55
to Serfas Club Drive would be subjected to the managed lanes decision. However a single
occupant vehicle traveling from SR 55 to Weir Canyon Road would not be subjected to the
decision, even though the vehicle could travel from SR 55 to Weir Canyon Road via the
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.16
eastbound Express Lanes, exit at Green River Road and use the westbound GP lanes to get to
Weir Canyon Road.
A set of coefficients were developed for each vehicle class using the eastbound SR 91 Express
Lanes, and a separate set were developed for the westbound SR 91 Express Lanes. Coefficients
were adjusted until simulated express lane volumes were close to actual observed lev els.
Figure 6-18 and Figure 6-19 show a managed use lane probability curve at a $2 toll and a $5
toll, for each direction and vehicle class. The eastbound toll curves show greater price
sensitivity for SOV’s, and reduced sensitivity for higher occupancy vehicles. Price sensitivity also
declines as travel time savings from using the managed lanes increases. Westbound toll curves
are more sensitive than eastbound curves are to price changes, but also assume the same
reduced sensitivity at higher time savings and higher occupancies. Table 6-8 and
Table 6-9 show toll rates used for the eastbound and westbound Express Lanes.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.17
Figure 6-18
SR 91 Eastbound Toll Curves by Vehicle Class
SOV Toll Curve
HOV2 Toll Curve
HOV3+ Toll Curve
Bus Toll Curve
Table 6-8
SR 91 Eastbound Express Lane Tolls Modeled
Occupancy 2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
SOV $4.15 $4.70 $8.70 $8.50 $4.05
HOV2 $4.15 $4.70 $8.70 $8.50 $4.05
HOV3 $0.00 $0.00 $4.35 $4.25 $0.00
Bus $0.00 $0.00 $4.35 $4.25 $0.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
o
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x
p
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s
s
L
a
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e
s
Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Eastbound SOV
$2 Toll $5 Toll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
o
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x
p
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L
a
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s
Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Eastbound HOV2
$2 Toll $5 Toll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
o
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Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Eastbound HOV3+
$2 Toll $5 Toll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
o
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Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Eastbound Bus
$2 Toll $5 Toll
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.18
Westbound Coefficients and Tolls
Figure 6-19
SR 91 Westbound Toll Curves by Vehicle Class
SOV Toll Curve
HOV2 Toll Curve
HOV3+ Toll Curve
Bus Toll Curve
Table 6-9
SR 91 Westbound Express Lane Tolls Modeled
Occupancy 2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
SOV $2.05 $2.05 $2.05 $2.05 $2.05
HOV2 $2.05 $2.05 $2.05 $2.05 $2.05
HOV3 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Bus $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
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90%
100%
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Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Westbound SOV
$2 Toll $5 Toll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Westbound HOV2
$2 Toll $5 Toll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Westbound HOV3+
$2 Toll $5 Toll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Express Lane Travel Time Savings
SR 91 Westbound Bus
$2 Toll $5 Toll
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.19
HOV lane traffic in Riverside County was modeled independently of the managed use lanes
model. HOV Lane traffic in Riverside County was assigned using fixed percentages of global
traffic as observed from traffic count data. Modeled HOV lane traffic levels were therefore not
dependent on travel time savings, but instead were forced to match observed share of global
traffic.
6.3.5 Modeled Traffic Results vs. Actual
The existing conditions simulation model calibration process resulted in a good match to
eastbound traffic counts and travel speeds, and a reasonable representation of westbound
counts and speeds. The calibration process focused on obtaining a good match to eastbound
general purpose lane and express lane conditions during the PM peak period on the basi s of
traffic counts and travel speeds. The performance of the westbound general purpose and
express lanes were of lesser importance because this direction experiences light congestion
during the PM peak period and is expected to continue to see light trav el in the future.
Therefore the reliability of the PM peak period contribution of the westbound elements to the
Riverside County SR 91 Express Lanes would be less critical.
Using the coefficients and tolls presented, the managed use lanes model was able to produce
traffic volumes that are similar to actual observed traffic levels. Traffic on the eastbound
Express Lanes during the modeled period was similar to actual levels. Westbound levels did not
match as well and overshot by a larger amount during the period.
Eastbound general purpose lane, SR 91 Express Lane, and Riverside County HOV lane model
volumes were similar to counted levels, and aggregate travel speeds in the corridor were
similar to observed levels. Together, they demonstrate that the cali bration process has resulted
in the proper balance between input O/D demand volumes, and link capacities. Car following
model parameters and managed use lane coefficients are capable of reproducing observed
traffic patterns.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.20
Figure 6-20
SR 91 Eastbound General Purpose Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2 -7 PM
Figure 6-21
SR 91 Eastbound Express and HOV Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2 -7 PM
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
241 to CL SR 71 to Serfas Main St to I-15 I-15 to McKinley St
GP
L
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-7 P
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Count Model
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
241 to CL SR 71 to Serfas Main St to I-15 I-15 to McKinley St
Ex
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-7 P
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Count Model
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.21
Figure 6-22
SR 91 Eastbound Travel Speeds, Model vs. Actual, 2-7 PM
Calibration results of the westbound facility demonstrated that the model did not match actual
results as closely, but still are representative of observed conditions. General purpose lane
model volumes are lower than observed between SR 241 and the County Line, and from I -15 to
McKinley Street. SR 91 Express Lane volumes were over-predicted by the managed use lanes
model, and HOV lane volumes between I-15 and McKinley Street were lower than observed, in
line with the lower GP lane volume. Aggregate travel speeds on the SR 91 corridor were lower
than observed. Since the westbound Riverside County Express Lanes are expected to make only
a small contribution to total facility traffic and revenue during the PM Peak period, over or
underestimation of traffic on the westbound facility is of lesser significance.
0
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2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6:00 PM
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Actual Avg Speed Model Avg Speed
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.22
Figure 6-23
SR 91 Westbound General Purpose Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2 -7 PM
Figure 6-24
SR 91 Westbound Express and HOV Lanes, Model vs. Count, 2-7 PM
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
241 to CL SR 71 to Serfas Main St to I-15 I-15 to McKinley St
GP
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-7 P
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0
3,000
6,000
9,000
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15,000
241 to CL SR 71 to Serfas Main St to I-15 I-15 to McKinley St
Ex
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.23
Figure 6-25
SR 91 Westbound Travel Speeds, Model vs. Actual, 2 -7 PM
6.4 FUTURE YEAR MODEL ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS
Simulations of future scenarios model the 2035 condition before and after the GP lane
improvements scheduled for completion by year 2035 (GP lane addition from SR 241 to SR 71
and I-15 to Pierce Street). Both scenarios exclude Corridor A, the I-15/91 HOT direct connectors
to/from the north, and the SR 71/91 HOT direct connectors. The Riverside County SR 91 Express
Lanes are modeled as described in the “initial” condition in both the scenario prior to the year
2035 general purpose lane improvements (2035 by 2020 Network) and after year 2035
improvements (2035 by 2035 Network). The list below details the principal network
assumptions in each scenario.
6.4.1 Network Assumptions and Scenarios
The “2035 by 2020 network” scenario assumes the highway network for years from 2020 and
2034, while the 2035 network represents the highway network for years from 2035 to 2039.
Both scenarios assume year 2035 trip levels. Two scenarios were modeled because in 2035,
significant highway improvements would be made that would change travel patterns and
express lane usage.
0
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2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6:00 PM
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WB, east of I-15 to SR 55
Actual Speed (mph)Model Speed
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.24
2035 by 2020 network
From 2020 to 2035, the network is generally unchanged. Generally 5 general purpose lanes
would be available between SR 241 and I-15, and 3 to 4 GP lanes would be available east of
I-15. The following is a list of highway improvements that are included in the 2035 by 2020
network scenario:
Eastbound auxiliary lane between SR 241 and SR 71 completed in December 2010
Fifth general purpose lane between SR 55 and SR 241 that is scheduled for completion
in 2013.
Riverside County SR 91 Express Lanes, two lanes each direction with direct connector
ramps to and from I-15 south of SR 91 but not I-15 north of SR 91.
SR 91/241 tolled direct connector
SR 71/91 general purpose lane connector improvement
Serfas Club Drive, Maple Avenue, and Lincoln Avenue interchange and ramp
improvements
Includes Main street CD road improvements
Includes Phase 1 of the I-15 Express Lanes between El Cerrito Road and the northern
extent of the micro simulation study area (2nd Street)
2035 by 2035 Network
The 2035 by 2035 network scenario adds several highway improvements scheduled for
completion by year 2035. These improvements include:
Sixth general purpose lane between SR 241 and SR 71 in each direction
Additional general purpose lane in each direction of SR 91 between I -15 and Pierce
Street
CETAP corridor with direct access to the I-15 general purpose lanes north and south of
Cajalco Road. North facing ramps (CETAP WB to I-15 NB, I-15 SB to CETAP EB) are
assumed north of Cajalco Road, and south facing ramps (CETAP WB to I -15 SB, I-15 NB
to CETAP EB) are assumed south of Cajalco Road.
Table 6-10 lists the number of lanes assumed in each scenario by segment of SR 91.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.25
Table 6-10
SR 91 Number of General Purpose Lanes
Segment 2035 by 2020 Network 2035 by 2035 Network
GP (EB/WB) Exp(EB/WB) GP (EB/WB) Exp(EB/WB)
SR 55 to Lakeview 7/5 2/2 7/5 1/1
Through Lakeview 6/5 2/2 6/5 2/2
Lakeview to Imperial 6/5 2/2 6/5 2/2
Through Imperial 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Imperial to Weir 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Through Weir 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Weir to SR 241 6/6 2/2 6/6 2/2
SR 241 to Gypsum West 4/4 2/2 4/4 2/2
Through Gypsum 4/4 2/2 4/4 2/2
Gypsum to SR 241 East 4/4 2/2 4/4 2/2
SR 241 to County Line 5/5 3/3 6/6 3/3
County Line to Green River 8/8 0/0 9/9 0/0
Through Green River 5/5 2/2 6/6 2/2
Green River to SR 71 5/6 2/2 6/6 2/2
SR 71 Interchange 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
SR 71 to Serfas Club 6/6 2/2 6/6 2/2
Through Serfas Club 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Serfas Club to Maple 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Through Maple 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Maple to Lincoln 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Through Lincoln 5/5 2/2 5/5 2/2
Lincoln to Main 7/7 2/2 7/7 2/2
Through Main 6/6 2/2 6/6 2/2
Main to I-15 6/6 2/2 4/4 2/2
Through I-15 3/3 0/0 5/5 0/0
I-15 to McKinley 5/4 1/1 5/5 1/1
Through McKinley 4/3 0/0 4/4 1/1
McKinley to Pierce Street 4/3 1/1 4/4 1/1
Through Pierce Street 3/3 1/1 3/3 1/1
In both the 2035 by 2020 network and 2035 by 2035 network scenarios, I -15 improvements are
limited to the addition of Express Lanes (two lanes per direction from Ontario Avenue to SR 91,
and one lane per direction otherwise), and an auxiliary lane to accommodate Express Lane
access from the Express Lane access point between Magnolia and Ontario, to Ontario Avenue,
and from the I-15 Express Lane southern terminus between El Cerrito and Cajalco Road, to
Cajalco Road. Table 6-11 lists the number of lanes assumed on I-15 in both scenarios.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.26
Table 6-11
I-15 Number of General Purpose and Express Lanes
Segment 2035 by 2020 Network 2035 by 2035 Network
GP (SB/NB) Exp(SB/NB) GP (SB/NB) Exp(SB/NB)
2nd Street to Hidden Valley 5/5 1/1 5/5 1/1
Through Hidden Valley 4/4 1/1 4/4 1/1
Hidden Valley Pkwy to SR 91 4/4 1/1 4/4 1/1
Through SR-91 3/3 1/1 3/3 1/1
SR 91 to Magnolia 5/4 2/2 5/4 2/2
Through Magnolia 4/3 2/2 4/3 2/2
Magnolia to Access Point 1 4/4 2/2 4/4 2/2
Access point 1 to Ontario 5/4 1/1 5/4 1/1
Through Ontario Ave 4/4 1/1 4/4 1/1
Ontario Ave to El Cerrito 4/3 1/1 4/3 1/1
Through El Cerrito 3/3 1/1 3/3 1/1
El Cerrito to Access Point 2 4/4 1/1 4/3 1/1
Access Point 2 4/4 1/1 4/3 0/0
6.4.2 Volume Assumptions
Traffic levels in both scenarios assume year 2035 trips. Trip tables rely on the SR 91 mainline
segment volume percentage traffic growth between the existing and future 2035 condition
predicted by the RivTAM travel demand model. As an example, if the upstream segment grows
10% and the downstream segment grows 12%, the corresponding micro simulation input
volumes were grown 10% and 12%, respectively. Then, both the on and off ramps were grown
at the lower percentage, 10% in this case. Finally, one of the ramps was adjusted to account for
the unbalanced segment growth (10 vs. 12%).
Once ramp volumes were determined, a distribution model similar to that used for the existing
condition was applied to create O/D tables, carrying all calibration adjustments from the
existing year. In addition to the mainline traffic growth between existing and future years
predicted by the RivTAM model, traffic was increased to reflect the expectation of fewer
mainline bypass trips. In existing conditions, some motorists avoid segments of the heavily
congested SR 91 freeway in favor of using local roads as bypasses. However the existing and
future travel demand model forecasts do not see that level of bypass trips during the PM peak
period as evidenced by difference in calibration levels. Figure 6-26 presents the percentage
difference between PM peak period global traffic predicted by the 2010 RivTAM travel demand
model and mainline demand compiled from existing ramp and mainline traffic counts. For the
segments between SR 241 and the Riverside/Orange County Line, and through I-15, the
demand model differs from balanced demand by less than 2 percent. Both segments, and
especially SR 91 from SR 241 to the County Line, serve as regional pinch-points where few or no
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.27
alternatives exist. However for locations between the County Line and I-15, where vehicles are
able to exit the SR 91 freeway and use local bypass links for their trips, the model overestimates
freeway traffic. This data may be indicative of the demand model keeping trips on the SR 91
freeway where in reality vehicles may be exiting the road, or avoiding entering because of
congestion. In the future, general purpose and Express Lane improvements would add capacity
to the corridor, and it is assumed that the level of bypass trips will decline.
Figure 6-26
SR 91 Eastbound, RivTAM Model Global Traffic vs. Actual Balanced Demand, 3 -7 PM
The future O/D matrix assumes a lower growth rate for trips exiting the eastbound general
purpose lanes and a higher rate of growth for trips entering the lanes. The net result is an
increase in PM peak period eastbound mainline demand at a rate of 1.1 percent per year rather
than 0.9 percent per year. Table 6-12 and
Table 6-13 present O/D matrices for the 2035 by 2020 network and 2035 by 2035 network
scenarios.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
24
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.28
Table 6-12
2035 by 2020 Network O/D Matrix, 2-7 PM
Table 6-13
2035 by 2035 Network O/D Matrix, 2-7 PM
6.4.3 Car Following Model Simulation Parameters
Future year simulations use the same car following parameters developed in the existing
conditions model. However individual links were re-classified as hard curves, heavy weaves, or
basic freeway if warranted by observations of initial simulation results. Heavy weaving behavior
was applied to links previously assumed as basic freeway if traffic growth resulted in hig h
weaving activity and high congestion. For example, the westbound GP lanes approaching I -15
and eastbound GP lanes approaching the SR 71 exit ramp are now classified as a “heavy weave”
(slightly lower headway and more aggressive lane changing behavior) due to the increase in
approach traffic and weaving. Such changes are believed to result in more realistic lane
changing.
6.4.4 Managed Lanes Coefficients and Tolls
Existing conditions managed use lane toll coefficients were used in the simulation of future
traffic. Eastbound Orange County SR 91 Express Lane toll coefficients were used to model
Origin/Destination
West of
SR-55 SR-55
B'twn
SR-55 &
SR-241 SR-241
Green River
& SR-71
B'twn
SR-71 &
I-15 I-15 North I-15 South East of I-15 Total
West of SR-55 8,100 9,750 12,400 50 2,400 4,450 1,300 2,900 4,850 41,350
SR-55 12,850 0 10,400 0 3,200 3,950 3,550 2,800 6,350 36,750
B'twn SR-55 & SR-241 11,750 12,900 2,250 2,200 3,600 3,750 1,600 1,600 3,650 39,650
SR-241 900 50 4,950 0 4,900 2,250 1,550 1,350 4,900 15,950
Green River & SR-71 2,100 1,750 3,500 1,350 4,550 3,350 250 2,300 1,000 19,150
B'twn SR-71 & I-15 2,550 1,550 2,150 450 7,150 1,250 3,200 6,050 11,700 24,350
I-15 North 1,950 2,300 1,900 950 450 4,800 17,900 20,700 6,650 50,950
I-15 South 3,250 2,900 2,100 1,100 2,400 4,000 17,600 28,700 8,850 62,050
East of I-15 5,650 4,450 2,200 2,100 2,000 8,000 5,800 7,150 14,050 37,350
Total 43,450 31,200 39,650 6,100 28,650 27,800 46,950 66,400 47,950 290,200
Origin/Destination
West of
SR-55 SR-55
B'twn
SR-55 &
SR-241 SR-241
Green River
& SR-71
B'twn
SR-71 &
I-15 I-15 North I-15 South East of I-15 Total
West of SR-55 7,950 12,300 15,000 400 2,350 4,100 1,250 2,250 3,550 45,600
SR-55 12,200 0 6,550 0 3,550 3,950 1,700 4,400 8,250 32,350
B'twn SR-55 & SR-241 12,050 13,750 2,200 1,300 3,550 4,200 1,300 1,550 3,250 39,900
SR-241 900 100 3,900 0 6,350 2,600 2,200 1,650 3,350 17,700
Green River & SR-71 3,050 2,150 4,450 2,400 1,450 3,700 500 2,250 700 19,950
B'twn SR-71 & I-15 2,500 1,750 1,450 850 8,300 950 4,000 3,950 11,250 23,750
I-15 North 1,550 2,950 1,550 1,400 250 4,750 14,750 18,250 4,250 45,450
I-15 South 3,000 3,150 1,450 1,050 4,300 3,000 15,600 30,350 5,650 61,900
East of I-15 3,750 4,550 1,450 2,000 2,250 8,850 4,050 5,000 11,050 31,900
Total 43,200 36,150 36,550 7,400 30,100 27,250 41,300 64,650 40,250 286,600
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.29
Riverside County’s eastbound SR 91 Express Lanes and southbound I-15 Express Lanes.
Westbound Orange County SR 91 Express Lane coefficients were used to model Riverside
County’s westbound SR 91 Express Lanes and northbound I-15 Express Lanes.
Riverside County SR 91 Express Lane tolls from the enhanced toll case spreadsheet model were
used for initial simulation tests, but were increased if demand was too high to ensure hig h
travel speeds, or decreased if demand was lower than levels predicted by the market share
model. Resulting rates are presented in the forecast results section of this chapter.
6.4.5 Future Model Results, 2035 by 2020 Scenario
In the 2035 by 2020 network scenario, higher eastbound through tolls were required to keep
express lanes demand at levels that would allow travel speeds to be maintained at high levels
(greater than 45 mph). Eastbound traffic levels were limited to about 2,500 vehicles per hour
during much of the PM peak period. Eastbound traffic on the RCXL mainline limited by capacity
of the EB through movement, which was able to handle at most 1,700 vehicles per hour before
operations deteriorated due to congestion and weaving. Overall EB express lane s peeds from
start to end were above 50 mph through the modeled period for both destinations except for
the 5 to 6 PM hour where eastbound speeds declined to 49 miles per hour. Capacity of the
eastbound through movement is heavily dependent on downstream ope rations east of the
express lanes eastern terminus. Heavy congestion to the east due to HOV/HOT weaving and/or
the eastbound lane drop east of McKinley could possibly degrade express lane speeds.
Figure 6-27
2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Eastbound from Green River Road to I -15
2.4 3.7
13.4
24.4
27.4
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SR 91 EB: Green River Road to I-15
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.30
Figure 6-28
2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Eastbound from Green River Road to Ontario Avenue
Table 6-14 shows Express and general purpose lane speeds on the eastbound SR 91. Heavy
congestion develops on the eastbound general purpose lanes, originating from the lane drop at
McKinley and Pierce Streets. Congestion at these locations spills back on the general purpose
lanes to Serfas Club Drive. Vehicles at the east end of the Riverside County Express Lanes
occasionally experience congestion from vehicles merging in front of them to access the HOV
lanes at McKinley, or from Express Lane vehicles merging into the congested general purpose
lanes. Toward the end of the PM peak period, queuing from I -15 SB spills back onto the SR 91
mainline and creates queues that spill back as far as Green River Road.
2.9 3.1
9.9
23.0
29.5
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SR 91 EB: Green River Road to Ontario Avenue
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.31
Table 6-14
EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2020 Network
Express Lanes
Speed Legend, Red, <25 mph, Yellow, 25-50 mph, Green, 50+ mph
HOx
Lanes 55
55 to
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew-
Imperia
l
Imperia
l
Imperia
l-Weir Weir
Weir-
241off 241
Gypsu
m
Gypsu
m-
241on
241
HOT
on to
End
241on-
HOT
End
HOT
mixing
HOT
End-
Green
HOT
end to
HOT
Narrow Green
Green-
SR71 SR 71 SR71
SR71-
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x-
Serfas Serfas
Serfas-
Maple Maple
Maple-
HOVmix
HOVmix-
Lincoln Lincoln
Lincoln-
2nd 2nd Main
Main-
I15off
I15off-
I15SBon
through
15, w/o
SB ON
through
15, e/ o
SB ON-
END HOVmix
HOVmix-
McKinley
McKinley
HOV
McKinley
HOV HOVmix
HOVmix-
Pierce Pierce Exit
0 771 279 106 108 110 112 114 116 139 118 118 146 121 62 32 804 151 125 126 126 165 165 175 127 181 128 129 129 447 196 201 130 131 101 223 222 225 167 239 569 247 571 254 258
2:05 PM 65 65 64 63 64 65 64 64 63 64 64 61 62 60 61 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 60 62 61 59 59 59 60 57 56 52 58 57 59 59 48 53 41 58 30 58 58 49
2:10 PM 61 63 63 63 64 63 64 64 63 64 64 62 62 59 61 63 63 62 62 62 61 61 60 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 62 55 60 61 60 56 48 52 34 57 33 58 57 44
2:15 PM 62 63 63 64 63 63 60 63 62 61 61 60 61 59 60 62 63 62 62 62 62 62 61 63 63 61 60 60 60 60 62 59 60 58 60 58 47 52 39 58 48 56 58 43
2:20 PM 62 65 64 65 63 63 63 63 62 63 63 60 60 59 60 61 61 62 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 61 61 61 62 61 62 55 61 60 52 61 51 51 45 57 32 59 58 45
2:25 PM 62 65 64 62 63 63 64 64 62 63 63 59 61 59 61 61 62 60 61 61 59 59 61 60 59 59 59 59 59 57 59 55 57 58 60 60 50 52 40 54 27 57 55 44
2:30 PM 65 65 63 62 62 63 63 62 64 62 62 59 61 59 60 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 61 58 58 61 59 60 51 61 57 57 57 47 52 41 54 31 59 58 47
2:35 PM 65 65 64 64 63 63 62 63 65 64 64 61 61 58 61 60 62 62 62 62 61 61 62 62 62 61 60 60 61 60 59 54 60 58 59 59 46 54 50 56 29 57 57 44
2:40 PM 64 64 63 63 63 62 64 63 64 63 63 62 62 58 61 61 62 60 60 60 59 59 60 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 60 55 60 58 58 58 49 49 34 57 29 58 58 46
2:45 PM 64 64 64 64 62 63 64 63 63 63 63 60 62 59 61 62 61 63 62 62 62 62 60 61 60 57 62 62 60 59 54 49 58 59 57 57 47 52 40 57 33 59 57 46
2:50 PM 62 63 63 64 63 64 61 64 63 61 61 59 61 60 61 59 62 61 60 60 59 59 62 61 61 61 61 61 62 62 62 52 54 58 60 59 50 54 36 57 28 59 58 46
2:55 PM 63 65 64 63 63 62 63 63 63 63 63 62 61 59 61 62 63 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 59 62 59 59 59 58 54 48 58 60 55 58 45 49 38 56 25 59 58 46
3:00 PM 62 65 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 61 61 59 60 63 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 60 59 61 61 61 60 59 61 56 53 50 60 57 45 52 34 56 28 56 55 44
3:05 PM 63 64 64 63 64 64 63 63 64 62 62 61 62 60 60 61 61 62 60 60 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 59 62 56 59 59 57 59 47 52 35 57 27 57 57 42
3:10 PM 63 65 64 63 62 64 63 63 64 64 64 60 61 60 61 63 63 59 61 61 61 61 60 61 61 59 60 60 61 61 61 54 61 58 58 59 50 52 39 57 28 54 52 44
3:15 PM 63 64 64 64 63 64 63 63 64 63 63 61 61 61 61 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 60 61 53 59 58 54 60 47 53 36 56 28 55 52 41
3:20 PM 65 65 64 62 62 63 63 63 62 64 64 59 62 60 61 62 63 62 62 62 62 62 62 63 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 55 58 59 58 57 49 31 40 57 29 58 56 45
3:25 PM 62 63 64 62 64 63 64 64 63 63 63 61 61 60 60 62 63 62 62 62 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 61 62 61 63 56 60 59 56 59 45 22 33 55 30 54 53 46
3:30 PM 65 65 64 63 61 62 61 60 63 64 64 55 61 58 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 60 62 60 59 59 61 59 60 56 60 59 58 59 45 23 38 57 27 53 47 44
3:35 PM 64 64 63 63 63 64 63 61 62 63 63 60 61 59 61 62 63 63 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 60 61 61 60 61 62 53 60 58 58 60 46 22 34 57 31 53 58 44
3:40 PM 64 64 64 63 62 62 62 64 63 63 63 57 61 60 61 62 62 61 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 61 60 60 59 60 60 54 60 59 58 56 21 22 38 57 28 46 32 42
3:45 PM 62 63 62 63 63 62 60 60 63 61 61 58 61 58 61 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 61 59 59 49 59 58 48 38 26 23 28 57 29 58 51 43
3:50 PM 62 63 63 61 60 62 61 62 62 62 62 57 60 59 61 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 60 62 61 62 62 62 61 60 56 52 45 42 37 34 21 23 47 57 28 49 46 39
3:55 PM 60 64 62 62 60 60 61 61 60 61 61 53 59 59 61 61 63 60 60 60 61 61 59 59 61 60 60 60 60 61 61 53 49 40 16 18 24 24 39 56 30 49 42 43
4:00 PM 58 64 62 62 63 62 61 62 62 60 60 54 59 58 61 61 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 62 62 61 60 60 57 59 59 54 35 36 25 24 24 26 50 56 27 57 50 44
4:05 PM 62 63 60 62 60 61 59 58 62 61 61 50 57 57 61 62 63 61 63 63 61 61 62 62 62 61 62 62 62 60 62 58 36 34 25 34 31 24 34 56 29 41 38 46
4:10 PM 62 64 63 62 64 63 61 61 63 62 62 44 45 58 61 63 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 62 62 62 61 61 60 60 61 57 42 46 39 31 24 24 40 56 28 37 39 39
4:15 PM 61 64 64 63 63 61 63 64 63 62 62 57 23 59 60 62 62 62 60 60 59 59 62 61 62 63 62 62 62 63 63 59 60 54 33 20 22 23 46 53 28 52 48 39
4:20 PM 62 64 64 63 63 63 62 63 61 62 62 60 32 56 60 62 63 62 62 62 62 62 62 61 61 62 61 61 61 61 60 59 59 58 55 36 23 24 46 54 28 59 57 45
4:25 PM 61 65 64 65 63 62 62 64 63 62 62 60 59 59 60 62 63 62 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 61 62 62 61 61 60 57 56 56 60 55 23 23 43 57 28 59 51 43
4:30 PM 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 62 64 63 63 61 60 60 61 62 62 62 62 62 60 60 60 58 60 60 61 61 62 61 61 57 60 60 58 38 22 24 45 56 29 59 57 45
4:35 PM 64 64 63 63 62 62 63 62 63 64 64 60 56 59 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 61 61 60 62 61 61 61 61 62 49 59 56 46 25 26 25 44 54 30 55 59 48
4:40 PM 63 63 63 62 62 62 64 62 60 62 62 53 60 56 60 61 61 60 62 62 60 60 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 53 56 50 34 36 22 25 45 56 29 51 50 51
4:45 PM 63 64 63 62 63 63 62 61 62 62 62 59 60 58 60 62 62 61 59 59 59 59 60 60 60 61 59 59 59 60 61 57 59 47 21 20 28 25 35 56 28 58 58 47
4:50 PM 63 63 63 62 60 63 63 62 62 63 63 53 60 59 61 61 62 60 62 62 61 61 60 59 60 60 61 61 59 60 62 54 58 58 47 35 20 22 46 57 29 44 40 43
4:55 PM 61 64 64 63 63 62 62 59 60 62 62 54 60 56 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 58 59 60 58 60 60 61 60 59 56 57 43 17 19 23 23 32 56 28 44 45 41
5:00 PM 61 61 60 59 60 61 62 62 63 63 63 55 40 57 61 58 60 58 59 59 59 59 60 60 60 59 60 60 59 58 59 50 37 37 24 29 23 23 39 56 27 56 41 40
5:05 PM 61 64 60 62 61 62 60 61 61 60 60 54 22 58 61 61 61 61 61 61 59 59 58 58 61 59 58 58 61 59 47 33 40 40 23 19 21 24 53 57 26 59 56 44
5:10 PM 63 64 62 63 63 62 62 62 61 60 60 32 21 56 61 61 61 60 59 59 60 60 60 61 60 60 59 59 60 58 19 19 33 35 16 15 23 25 47 57 27 55 51 45
5:15 PM 65 65 64 61 61 63 62 63 63 62 62 22 22 58 61 61 61 59 59 59 59 59 60 60 61 61 60 60 60 62 15 17 21 26 18 20 21 24 49 55 31 57 58 50
5:20 PM 64 64 63 61 64 63 63 63 62 62 62 21 21 57 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 59 59 58 59 57 57 55 52 48 19 35 38 17 18 23 26 46 57 28 54 42 46
5:25 PM 63 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 23 22 58 60 62 62 62 61 61 60 60 59 60 59 59 58 58 59 59 58 24 37 38 21 25 23 23 39 57 25 56 50 50
5:30 PM 63 62 61 61 63 61 63 63 63 54 54 22 21 55 61 62 63 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 62 62 61 60 61 54 41 38 21 18 22 25 49 57 29 43 42 45
5:35 PM 64 65 62 64 63 58 62 62 62 29 29 21 20 56 61 60 61 60 61 61 59 59 59 61 61 61 62 62 61 62 61 58 59 55 28 22 24 21 36 56 31 58 51 49
5:40 PM 62 64 64 63 64 64 61 64 59 18 18 19 20 56 61 62 62 61 61 61 60 60 61 61 60 59 59 59 60 61 61 56 60 60 61 54 20 27 38 55 28 59 58 49
5:45 PM 64 64 62 61 63 63 63 64 60 18 18 21 21 55 61 61 59 60 59 59 59 59 59 60 59 60 61 61 61 61 62 59 59 59 59 60 39 31 33 57 27 58 58 46
5:50 PM 63 64 64 63 63 63 54 61 54 18 18 22 21 58 61 61 63 62 60 60 59 59 59 60 60 59 59 59 61 60 59 56 58 59 58 58 42 21 33 54 27 41 37 42
5:55 PM 63 64 63 62 61 62 62 62 17 16 16 21 21 57 61 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 62 61 61 61 60 60 59 60 58 59 58 60 59 59 47 22 31 57 27 34 41 36
6:00 PM 62 61 62 62 62 60 62 62 21 20 20 21 21 57 61 61 61 60 59 59 60 60 61 62 61 61 61 61 60 58 60 56 60 55 59 55 51 22 33 56 29 48 50 38
6:05 PM 63 63 62 63 62 62 61 62 21 22 22 22 21 57 61 62 62 61 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 60 60 60 61 61 61 56 58 55 59 58 34 27 34 57 31 59 51 42
6:10 PM 63 64 62 63 61 60 63 60 18 18 18 21 21 56 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 62 61 62 59 60 60 60 61 59 59 59 60 57 61 57 25 45 55 31 57 55 45
6:15 PM 63 63 62 61 61 62 62 21 18 20 20 21 21 56 60 61 62 61 60 60 61 61 60 59 60 59 59 59 61 61 60 51 60 59 56 60 62 34 63 55 31 58 56 47
6:20 PM 63 63 62 61 62 61 60 21 18 19 19 22 21 52 61 61 63 61 60 60 59 59 61 59 59 57 60 60 60 61 62 59 60 59 59 57 62 63 55 57 32 57 56 55
6:25 PM 64 63 63 63 64 62 49 17 19 21 21 22 23 52 60 60 61 59 59 59 58 58 60 60 60 60 58 58 60 60 60 58 59 58 59 55 62 63 53 56 38 58 57 60
6:30 PM 63 63 62 63 62 62 18 22 24 24 24 22 20 53 61 59 61 61 60 60 62 62 61 61 60 59 60 60 61 61 60 55 60 57 57 57 64 63 60 54 62 58 58 60
6:35 PM 63 64 63 63 62 61 21 25 25 24 24 21 22 57 61 60 61 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 59 60 60 60 60 61 59 58 59 58 60 56 64 64 54 56 62 51 58 60
6:40 PM 56 63 62 56 62 60 25 23 22 23 23 22 20 58 61 55 59 59 60 60 60 60 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 55 60 57 59 60 56 59 53 56 62 58 57 61
6:45 PM 64 64 62 62 61 60 22 23 23 23 23 22 23 52 62 49 57 59 60 60 58 58 59 59 61 56 58 58 58 59 57 47 59 59 56 58 59 59 61 56 57 55 58 56
6:50 PM 63 64 63 63 63 61 23 22 30 29 29 22 21 52 62 56 57 60 58 58 59 59 59 57 58 57 58 58 58 55 35 43 60 59 59 57 52 49 30 56 59 55 55 57
6:55 PM 60 62 63 62 62 62 25 29 25 23 23 21 21 53 62 56 55 58 58 58 59 59 57 59 59 57 57 57 43 23 25 42 52 47 49 45 52 56 41 57 57 52 57 55
7:00 PM 60 62 62 60 62 46 30 22 22 24 24 22 21 52 58 57 59 60 59 59 59 59 56 58 59 57 47 47 28 28 25 42 52 53 54 60 48 51 35 56 55 56 56 48
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.32
Table 6-15 (cont.)
EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2020 Network
General Purpose Lanes
Speed Legend, Red, <25 mph, Yellow, 25-50 mph, Green, 50+ mph
GP Lanes
WEST
OF
Tustin
Tustin
to 55 55
55 -
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew-
Imperia
l
Imperia
l
Imperia
l-Weir Weir
Weir-
241off 241
Gypsu
m
Gypsu
m-
241on
241on-
HOT
End
HOT
End
HOT
End-
Green
HOT
End-
Green Green Green
Green-
SR71
SR71 CD
off to On SR71
SR71-
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x-
Serfas Serfas
Serfas-
Maple Maple
Maple-
Lincoln
Maple-
Lincoln Lincoln
Lincoln-
2nd 2nd Main
Main-
ExI15off
MainCD
On to
15on
I15SBon-
I15NBon
HOT
Mixing
Area
e/o15
HOT Mix
w/o
McKinley
HOT Mix
to
McKinley McKinley HOVmix HOVmix
HOVmix-
Pierce Pierce Exit
0 623 707 768 30 31 45 50 36 54 12 135 58 141 27 62 32 32 157 311 71 889 76 161 161 171 80 176 84 88 88 184 188 197 203 103 215 96 225 167 235 240 244 247 251 255 258
2:05 PM 57 57 58 57 57 59 58 59 60 58 57 59 59 54 60 61 61 59 58 60 60 60 61 61 61 57 53 26 56 56 46 61 52 51 47 45 46 48 53 49 53 44 30 32 37 49
2:10 PM 58 57 58 58 58 60 59 59 60 58 58 59 58 57 59 61 61 59 58 59 60 59 60 60 61 59 47 29 56 56 46 61 51 51 47 43 43 48 52 50 51 48 33 30 42 44
2:15 PM 57 57 58 58 58 59 59 58 59 58 52 59 58 56 59 60 60 60 59 60 60 60 61 61 62 58 43 25 55 55 49 61 53 51 50 42 44 47 52 49 50 45 48 33 41 43
2:20 PM 57 57 58 58 59 60 59 59 60 58 58 58 59 55 59 60 60 60 59 60 61 60 60 60 61 59 35 28 57 57 49 62 53 50 52 41 37 51 51 48 51 41 32 33 43 45
2:25 PM 58 56 58 56 57 59 59 59 60 59 59 59 58 35 59 61 61 60 58 59 60 59 60 60 61 57 32 25 54 54 45 61 53 52 49 35 26 50 52 49 51 29 27 30 37 44
2:30 PM 58 58 58 58 58 60 58 58 59 59 57 58 58 34 59 60 60 56 59 59 60 60 60 60 61 59 30 26 53 53 43 61 50 50 46 39 30 47 52 50 52 29 31 32 41 47
2:35 PM 58 56 58 57 57 59 58 59 60 60 58 59 57 27 58 61 61 59 59 59 60 60 61 61 61 59 27 25 33 33 42 60 53 50 49 34 27 46 54 50 53 27 29 28 39 44
2:40 PM 58 57 57 58 58 60 59 59 59 59 57 59 58 26 58 61 61 60 59 60 60 60 60 60 61 60 22 26 31 31 44 61 52 51 48 43 35 49 49 45 41 24 29 34 42 46
2:45 PM 57 57 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 59 58 24 59 61 61 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 57 22 26 49 49 43 60 50 51 51 45 47 47 52 47 26 28 33 32 37 46
2:50 PM 57 56 58 58 58 60 59 59 60 59 58 59 59 24 60 61 61 59 59 56 60 60 61 61 62 54 23 23 52 52 45 61 50 49 44 42 45 50 54 50 22 27 28 31 43 46
2:55 PM 58 56 57 58 58 59 58 59 59 58 58 58 48 25 59 61 61 60 59 60 61 60 60 60 61 44 23 28 53 53 46 61 52 49 46 42 40 45 49 45 28 24 25 29 40 46
3:00 PM 58 57 58 58 58 60 59 59 59 56 58 58 26 25 59 60 60 60 59 60 60 60 61 61 61 26 24 26 52 52 45 60 51 52 47 41 36 45 52 48 20 24 28 30 42 44
3:05 PM 58 57 58 58 59 60 59 59 59 60 58 59 23 24 60 60 60 59 58 59 59 59 60 60 60 22 22 29 37 37 40 60 51 51 52 45 47 47 52 34 19 26 27 31 36 42
3:10 PM 58 55 59 58 59 60 59 59 60 60 58 53 19 25 60 61 61 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 61 21 24 25 23 23 42 59 50 51 53 46 49 50 52 22 20 24 28 32 37 44
3:15 PM 58 55 59 58 58 60 58 59 60 59 54 16 20 26 61 61 61 60 59 60 60 60 61 61 61 22 22 26 45 45 45 61 53 50 46 41 42 47 53 21 19 26 28 30 39 41
3:20 PM 57 57 59 57 58 59 58 58 60 59 17 16 21 25 60 61 61 61 60 57 61 61 62 62 62 23 22 25 53 53 45 62 53 51 51 28 27 49 31 20 20 29 29 27 42 45
3:25 PM 58 55 58 58 58 60 59 59 59 52 16 17 21 24 60 60 60 60 60 61 62 61 62 62 62 21 23 25 55 55 45 62 49 50 43 23 25 45 22 20 20 27 30 29 42 46
3:30 PM 58 53 58 58 58 60 59 59 60 22 16 17 21 24 58 61 61 60 59 61 61 61 62 62 61 27 23 28 49 49 45 60 49 50 48 22 26 45 23 21 21 25 27 30 44 44
3:35 PM 58 56 59 58 58 60 59 59 60 20 16 15 19 26 59 61 61 60 60 60 61 61 62 62 62 43 23 26 52 52 46 62 53 49 47 20 25 46 22 18 18 30 31 33 39 44
3:40 PM 58 56 59 58 58 60 59 59 60 19 14 15 18 25 60 61 61 61 60 60 61 61 62 62 62 59 23 25 51 51 45 61 52 49 46 21 26 21 22 21 20 31 28 31 36 42
3:45 PM 57 51 59 58 59 60 60 59 60 17 16 15 18 23 58 61 61 60 60 60 62 62 62 62 63 61 23 28 53 53 47 62 51 49 45 17 24 26 23 19 20 29 29 31 38 43
3:50 PM 58 55 59 59 59 60 59 59 61 17 14 15 17 24 59 61 61 60 60 60 61 61 62 62 62 60 51 26 55 55 46 62 48 49 48 19 25 21 23 19 20 28 28 32 40 39
3:55 PM 57 51 58 58 58 59 59 59 60 13 14 15 17 23 59 61 61 60 60 59 60 61 62 62 62 61 58 26 56 56 47 62 51 50 21 17 23 24 24 20 20 31 30 30 35 43
4:00 PM 58 55 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 12 13 14 17 23 58 61 61 60 59 61 61 61 62 62 63 61 61 33 58 58 45 61 53 48 15 17 23 24 26 24 22 25 27 30 39 44
4:05 PM 55 56 59 56 58 60 59 60 60 12 13 15 17 23 57 61 61 61 61 59 62 62 62 62 62 61 60 29 61 61 50 62 52 32 14 17 24 31 24 20 20 27 29 32 44 46
4:10 PM 57 54 58 58 58 59 58 58 49 11 12 13 16 22 58 61 61 61 60 53 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 31 61 61 52 63 52 25 16 21 22 24 24 19 19 30 28 33 39 39
4:15 PM 57 55 59 57 58 59 59 58 12 11 13 14 17 24 59 60 60 60 59 59 62 62 62 62 63 61 61 28 60 60 50 62 50 19 16 17 18 22 23 20 20 27 28 29 35 39
4:20 PM 57 55 58 57 58 59 58 58 11 10 12 13 15 23 56 60 60 60 60 61 62 61 62 62 62 59 60 29 60 60 49 62 32 15 14 16 15 23 24 18 21 26 28 28 39 45
4:25 PM 57 54 57 57 57 59 58 58 11 11 12 13 16 23 59 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 60 61 29 60 60 43 40 13 16 14 17 18 23 23 17 18 29 28 35 42 43
4:30 PM 57 55 58 57 58 59 58 58 11 11 13 14 17 23 60 61 61 61 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 61 62 31 42 42 30 28 14 14 15 17 16 22 24 21 21 27 29 31 40 45
4:35 PM 57 53 58 57 58 60 58 59 12 12 12 13 16 23 59 61 61 61 60 57 61 61 62 62 62 61 62 34 18 18 22 24 23 17 14 16 16 26 25 20 19 30 30 31 40 48
4:40 PM 56 55 59 58 57 60 58 31 11 11 13 14 16 25 56 60 60 60 60 58 62 60 61 61 62 61 61 21 15 15 16 17 23 18 15 19 19 22 25 21 20 24 29 34 46 51
4:45 PM 58 56 59 57 58 60 59 14 11 12 13 13 16 23 58 60 60 60 60 60 62 62 62 62 63 60 37 14 14 14 16 14 17 37 14 16 16 28 25 17 19 30 28 30 42 47
4:50 PM 55 55 59 57 58 60 58 14 12 10 13 14 16 24 59 61 61 61 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 48 17 16 15 15 13 21 17 46 48 17 18 20 22 19 21 28 29 32 45 43
4:55 PM 58 56 59 59 58 59 26 16 11 11 13 14 16 23 56 61 61 61 59 61 61 62 62 62 57 18 18 18 15 15 18 27 20 46 50 15 15 23 23 19 20 31 28 28 44 41
5:00 PM 57 56 58 58 58 60 14 15 12 12 13 15 16 24 57 61 61 61 60 61 62 62 62 62 23 18 20 20 31 31 37 32 29 36 32 16 18 23 23 18 19 26 27 29 34 40
5:05 PM 57 56 59 58 58 60 14 16 12 12 13 15 17 24 58 61 61 58 60 60 62 62 62 62 18 18 21 24 49 49 43 60 43 24 14 16 16 21 24 18 20 29 26 29 33 44
5:10 PM 57 56 60 59 59 43 15 15 12 11 14 14 16 24 56 61 61 60 60 60 62 62 58 58 22 19 21 25 53 53 46 63 49 21 14 15 15 23 25 19 19 27 27 27 45 45
5:15 PM 57 54 58 58 58 12 14 18 12 12 13 14 15 23 58 61 61 60 59 58 62 62 62 62 24 24 24 28 54 54 48 62 37 20 14 16 16 21 24 20 19 25 31 32 48 50
5:20 PM 58 54 60 57 58 14 16 18 12 12 14 14 17 23 57 61 61 60 60 59 61 61 61 61 32 22 25 26 59 59 50 48 21 15 15 17 16 23 26 17 19 29 28 33 48 46
5:25 PM 58 55 59 56 26 14 16 17 12 12 14 14 16 22 58 60 60 61 59 60 61 62 62 62 60 22 23 27 48 48 35 38 12 13 14 17 16 23 23 18 21 23 25 25 47 50
5:30 PM 58 53 58 27 16 15 17 18 12 13 13 14 15 24 55 61 61 60 59 61 62 62 62 62 62 48 23 28 17 17 23 25 13 18 14 17 17 22 25 18 17 25 29 31 41 45
5:35 PM 58 48 59 20 17 15 16 20 12 11 13 14 15 24 56 61 61 61 60 58 62 61 61 61 63 60 22 19 15 15 19 20 14 20 15 17 17 24 21 16 36 29 31 32 42 49
5:40 PM 58 54 55 20 17 17 17 19 11 11 13 14 16 22 56 61 61 60 60 60 62 61 62 62 62 44 18 15 22 22 15 13 23 37 14 16 16 20 27 36 32 25 28 30 42 49
5:45 PM 58 52 18 21 18 22 17 18 11 11 13 14 16 22 55 61 61 59 59 54 61 61 62 62 57 16 19 19 18 18 14 14 23 43 15 17 19 39 31 18 19 25 27 29 38 46
5:50 PM 58 48 20 21 20 21 17 17 12 11 12 13 15 22 58 61 61 60 60 56 61 61 62 62 24 17 17 17 14 14 18 23 25 37 14 19 21 42 21 19 19 24 27 29 42 42
5:55 PM 58 55 25 24 19 15 15 15 12 11 13 13 16 24 57 61 61 60 60 57 62 61 61 61 17 16 18 19 36 36 23 17 13 44 29 20 21 47 22 19 18 24 27 32 37 36
6:00 PM 58 52 47 22 16 18 14 17 12 12 13 14 16 23 57 61 61 60 60 55 62 61 42 42 20 20 23 24 24 24 12 9 10 40 62 18 23 51 22 20 20 29 29 35 36 38
6:05 PM 58 55 59 21 19 16 15 18 11 12 14 14 16 23 57 61 61 60 60 61 62 62 20 20 25 23 22 22 12 12 10 10 11 37 59 46 33 34 27 24 22 28 31 32 37 42
6:10 PM 58 58 57 23 17 14 17 17 12 11 13 14 16 24 56 61 61 61 60 61 62 62 24 24 25 20 13 11 12 12 14 12 10 42 61 53 54 57 25 17 27 27 31 34 39 45
6:15 PM 58 57 60 17 16 14 15 17 11 11 13 14 15 23 56 60 60 60 59 60 62 62 55 55 18 12 13 13 14 14 12 11 12 48 64 61 59 62 34 35 32 29 31 35 38 47
6:20 PM 58 58 59 19 17 14 28 17 12 12 13 14 17 23 52 61 61 60 60 59 62 62 12 12 14 14 15 15 13 13 11 11 11 41 59 62 55 62 63 59 33 31 32 34 44 55
6:25 PM 57 58 59 19 16 17 42 16 11 11 13 14 17 23 52 60 60 61 59 58 62 47 14 14 14 16 14 13 11 11 9 8 11 40 62 62 54 62 63 61 64 47 38 38 54 60
6:30 PM 58 58 59 26 20 16 19 18 11 11 14 14 18 23 53 61 61 61 60 60 61 14 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 18 8 7 16 57 55 46 64 63 64 64 63 62 59 59 60
6:35 PM 58 56 59 22 19 18 15 17 11 13 14 14 18 23 57 61 61 61 60 61 26 14 12 12 12 11 9 8 9 9 11 5 17 26 55 60 52 64 64 65 65 62 62 61 59 60
6:40 PM 58 57 59 43 20 25 15 18 11 11 13 14 17 23 58 61 61 61 61 58 13 12 11 11 9 8 10 11 9 9 22 13 27 24 57 50 54 56 59 57 62 60 62 62 61 61
6:45 PM 58 58 60 60 46 21 15 18 12 11 13 14 17 22 52 62 62 62 61 40 11 10 8 8 12 13 10 12 20 20 41 10 12 30 58 54 54 59 59 57 57 55 57 54 49 56
6:50 PM 58 58 59 59 59 15 16 18 12 11 11 14 19 22 52 62 62 61 58 10 10 9 10 10 11 17 20 22 46 46 17 11 18 27 46 42 46 52 49 56 59 60 59 52 57 57
6:55 PM 58 57 59 59 59 27 23 19 11 12 12 14 18 24 53 62 62 43 12 13 10 11 14 14 20 26 34 25 28 28 31 26 27 27 35 20 26 52 56 54 57 54 57 48 51 55
7:00 PM 58 57 59 59 59 54 17 18 11 12 14 14 18 23 52 58 58 10 10 12 15 17 18 18 22 51 62 33 28 28 38 31 30 32 23 23 27 48 51 51 55 50 55 46 45 48
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.33
Traffic on the Riverside County eastbound express lanes are approximately 2,500 vehicles per
hour from 2 to 6 PM, and then increase to above 3,100 vehicles from 6-7 PM. Congestion on
the eastbound general purpose lanes increase during the last hour due to heavy queues from
congestion on I-15 Southbound, and increase the demand for the Riverside County Express
Lanes. Tolls for the eastbound through movement were elevated above market share model
levels for the 3 PM to 4 PM hours to maintain traffic at levels that would maintain free flow.
Tolls charged by the VISSIM model for the through movement average $9.54 in the 2 -7 PM
period, while the market share model averages $5.12. Conversely, tolls for the movement to
Ontario Avenue averaged $1.75 in the VISSIM model as opposed to $6.61 in the market share
model. Tolls were reduced to stimulate demand for the movement.
Figure 6-29
Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2020 Network
2,557 2,527 2,485 2,526
3,132
1,682 1,647 1,574
1,342
1,612
865 841 872
1,236
1,347
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
Eastbound RCTC Express Lanes Distribution
RCTC 91 XL RCTC 91 XL, through RCTC 91 XL, to 15 SB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.34
Table 6-16
Eastbound Express Lane VISSIM vs. Market Share Tolls, 2035 by 2020 Network 2 -7 PM
The micro simulation model predicts the westbound express lanes would have light traffic and
no operational problems. Speeds on both the general purpose and express lanes between the
eastern terminus at I-15 and western terminus at Green River Road would be near 60 miles per
hour throughout the PM peak period.
Figure 6-30
2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Westbound from I -15 to Green River Road
Eastbound Through Eastbound to Ontario Volume Weighted Average
Toll Charged (Toll Vehs)Toll Charged (Toll Vehs)Toll Charged (Toll Vehs)
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $3.47 $3.47 $1.25 $4.48 $2.70 $3.83
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $7.00 $4.54 $1.50 $5.86 $5.16 $5.03
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $9.50 $5.87 $2.00 $7.57 $6.77 $6.48
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $14.50 $5.87 $2.00 $7.57 $8.61 $6.49
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $13.25 $5.87 $2.00 $7.57 $7.82 $6.48
Average 2-7 PM $9.54 $5.12 $1.75 $6.61 $6.21 $5.66
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
Tim
e
S
a
v
i
n
g
s
(
m
i
n
s
)
Sp
e
e
d
(
m
p
h
)
SR 91 Westbound: I-15 to Green River Road
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.35
Figure 6-31
2035 by 2020 Network Scenario, Westbound from Ontario Avenue to Green River Road
Traffic on the westbound express lanes ranges from above 800 to just below 1,100 vehicles per
hour. A greater share of traffic would originate from the mainline on SR 91, with a minority
from the I-15 south direct connector ramp.
0.5 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
Tim
e
S
a
v
i
n
g
s
(
m
i
n
s
)
Sp
e
e
d
(
m
p
h
)
SR 91 Westbound: Ontario Avenue to Green River Road
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.36
Figure 6-32
Westbound Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2020 Network
Revenue Forecast
The VISSIM micro simulation model predicts total 2-7 PM toll traffic lower than predicted by the
market share model, but revenue that is slightly higher. In the micro simulation model, higher
tolls were charged for vehicles traveling through on SR 91 past I -15. These higher rates support
higher revenue at lower toll traffic levels.
1,079
835
948
808
972
794
603 640
447
578
289 226 317 339 393
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
Westbound RCTC Express Lanes Distribution
RCTC 91 XL RCTC 91 XL, through RCTC 91 XL, via 15NB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.37
Figure 6-33
Express Lanes Toll Traffic, 2035 by 2020 Network
Figure 6-34
Express Lanes Revenue, 2035 by 2020 Network
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.38
Table 6-17
Express Lane Traffic and Revenue, 2035 by 2020 Network 2-7 PM
* Average Toll charged excluding HOV3+ vehicles which are assumed toll free.
SR 91 Eastbound
Revenue, 2010$'s Average Toll Charged*Total Express Traffic
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $6,368 $8,448 $2.70 $3.83 2,491 2,471
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $11,643 $11,993 $5.16 $5.03 2,471 2,952
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $14,448 $15,315 $6.77 $6.48 2,439 3,121
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $19,588 $15,708 $8.61 $6.49 2,576 3,169
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $19,967 $15,631 $7.82 $6.48 2,888 3,135
Total 2-7 PM $72,013 $67,094 $6.21 $5.66 12,865 14,848
SR 91 Westbound
Revenue, 2010$'s Average Toll Charged*Total Express Traffic
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $1,178 $1,265 $1.37 $1.50 1,117 981
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $1,246 $2,003 $1.98 $2.21 832 1,065
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $1,342 $2,663 $2.01 $2.21 931 1,400
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $1,137 $2,832 $2.01 $2.20 877 1,487
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $860 $1,007 $1.40 $1.50 924 834
Total 2-7 PM $5,762 $9,769 $1.75 $1.92 4,681 5,767
SR 91 EB &WB
Revenu,2010$'s Average Toll Charged*Total Express Traffic
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $7,546 $9,712 $2.35 $3.18 3,608 3,452
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $12,889 $13,996 $4.46 $4.18 3,303 4,017
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $15,789 $17,978 $5.63 $4.82 3,370 4,521
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $20,725 $18,540 $7.29 $4.80 3,453 4,656
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $20,827 $16,637 $6.58 $5.14 3,812 3,969
Total 2-7 PM $77,775 $76,863 $5.21 $4.46 17,546 20,615
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.39
Figure 6-35 through Figure 6-39 illustrate traffic conditions predicted by the micro simulation
model at various segments of the corridor at 4:40 PM.
Figure 6-35
Orange County Express Lanes Egress Area, 4:40 PM
Figure 6-36
Serfas Club Drive, 4:40 PM
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.40
Figure 6-37
Lincoln Avenue, 4:40 PM
Note: GP Congestion near Lincoln Avenue
Figure 6-38
I-15 Interchange, 4:40 PM
Note: Congestion from 91 EB to I-15 SB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.41
Figure 6-39
McKinley Street Approach, 4:40 PM
Note: Congestion east of the 91 XL where corridor narrows
6.4.6 Future Model Results, 2035 by 2035 Network
Results of the 2035 by 2035 network scenario show that congestion still occurs on SR 91 east of
I-15 and on I-15 SB, but to a lesser degree. The decrease in congestion can be attr ibutable to a
shift in travel patterns induced by the addition of CETAP. The reallocation results in more
balance between demand and capacity. Additional GP lane capacity from the addition of GP
lanes east of I-15 also improves congestion levels. To the west, between SR 241 and SR 71, an
additional lane allows greater throughput from Orange County but does not translate to
increased Riverside County congestion or Express demand because of the improvements in
capacity and volume shifts.
Travel Speeds and Traffic
The greatest travel time savings are realized by Riverside County Express Lane users that are
using the eastbound to I-15 southbound direct connector. Toward the end of the simulation
period, the express lanes offer nearly a 20 minute time advantage over the general purpose
lanes due to congestion on I-15 southbound. Express lane users traveling through on the
eastbound express lanes realize little time savings but would travel at speeds that are 10 miles
per hour faster than the general purpose lanes.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.42
Figure 6-40
Eastbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network Scenario, Green River Road to I-15
Figure 6-41
Eastbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network Scenario, Green River Road to Ontario Avenue
The speed diagram shown in Table 6-18 show less congestion than predicted in the 2035 by
2020 network scenario. Queues form to the east of I -15, east of the express lanes eastern
terminus, but the queues do not extend past I-15. High entry volumes from Maple and Lincoln
Avenue result in low speeds on the general purpose lanes but for only a short distance. The
Riverside County Express lanes experience fewer instances of low speeds due to the queuing
east of I-15.
1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 3.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2-3
P
M
3-4
P
M
4-5
P
M
5-6
P
M
6-7
P
M
Tim
e
S
a
v
i
n
g
s
(
m
i
n
s
)
Sp
e
e
d
(
m
p
h
)
SR 91 Eastbound: Green River Road to I-15
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
2.0 3.1
12.9
18.4 19.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2-
3
P
M
3-
4
P
M
4-
5
P
M
5-
6
P
M
6-
7
P
M
Tim
e
S
a
v
i
n
g
s
(
m
i
n
s
)
Sp
e
e
d
(
m
p
h
)
SR 91 Eastbound: Green River Road to Ontario Avenue
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.43
Table 6-18
EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, Ultimate
Eastbound Express Lanes
Speed Legend, Red, <25 mph, Yellow, 25-50 mph, Green, 50+ mph
HOx
Lanes 55
55 to
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew-
Imperia
l
Imperia
l
Imperia
l-Weir Weir
Weir-
241off 241
Gypsu
m
Gypsu
m-
241on
241
HOT
on to
End
241on-
HOT
End
HOT
mixing
HOT
End-
Green
HOT
end to
HOT
Narrow Green
Green-
SR71 SR 71 SR71
SR71-
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x-
Serfas Serfas
Serfas-
Maple Maple
Maple-
HOVmix
HOVmix-
Lincoln Lincoln
Lincoln-
2nd 2nd Main
Main-
I15off
I15off-
I15SBon
through
15, w/o
SB ON
through
15, e/ o
SB ON HOVmix
HOVmix,
e/o 15 McKinley
McKinley
to
HOVmix HOVmix
HOVmix-
Pierce Pierce Exit
0 771 279 106 108 110 112 114 116 139 118 118 146 121 62 32 804 151 125 126 126 165 165 175 127 181 128 129 129 447 196 201 130 131 101 223 222 219 225 239 569 247 571 254 258
2:05 PM 64 65 63 63 63 63 62 64 63 63 63 61 61 62 61 62 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 63 62 62 62 63 63 62 63 53 60 61 61 54 51 31 58 54 49 54 47
2:10 PM 63 65 63 64 62 64 64 63 63 63 63 57 60 62 60 62 63 62 62 62 63 63 62 62 63 62 62 62 62 63 63 63 58 61 60 59 55 57 56 58 52 54 47 49
2:15 PM 65 66 64 64 64 63 62 63 63 64 64 60 61 61 60 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 63 63 62 62 59 61 58 61 53 52 47 58 54 50 50 47
2:20 PM 64 64 64 63 64 64 64 63 64 63 63 59 61 62 61 62 62 62 63 63 63 63 63 64 63 63 62 62 62 63 63 62 60 62 58 60 56 56 44 57 54 55 51 47
2:25 PM 64 64 64 64 63 64 63 61 62 63 63 59 61 61 61 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 61 63 62 62 62 63 61 62 56 61 60 58 52 49 43 58 56 56 51 49
2:30 PM 65 65 64 64 62 62 62 63 63 64 64 60 61 62 61 61 61 61 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 63 62 62 62 63 62 62 61 61 61 59 54 53 37 58 53 48 51 49
2:35 PM 65 65 64 64 63 63 63 63 64 62 62 60 61 61 60 63 63 62 61 61 62 62 62 61 61 62 62 62 60 60 61 60 61 60 60 59 52 52 44 58 53 55 52 46
2:40 PM 63 65 64 63 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 59 62 62 61 63 63 61 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 63 63 63 61 61 62 57 60 59 56 54 52 49 57 53 55 53 47
2:45 PM 63 65 64 63 64 64 61 63 65 63 63 61 61 62 61 62 63 62 62 62 63 63 62 62 62 62 63 63 63 62 63 62 60 62 58 59 53 51 41 59 55 50 47 48
2:50 PM 64 64 64 63 63 63 63 62 63 64 64 61 60 61 61 62 63 61 62 62 62 62 61 62 62 60 62 62 62 63 62 61 58 58 58 59 55 54 49 54 53 45 44 48
2:55 PM 63 65 64 63 63 62 63 63 62 63 63 60 61 62 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 61 62 62 62 61 59 61 61 59 52 51 39 58 54 57 54 49
3:00 PM 63 64 63 62 63 63 64 64 63 63 63 59 59 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 60 61 60 61 61 60 60 60 60 60 59 58 58 54 51 38 57 52 57 57 48
3:05 PM 63 64 64 63 63 61 63 63 64 63 63 59 60 62 62 63 63 62 60 60 60 60 61 57 62 60 61 61 62 62 61 61 60 61 60 57 54 52 43 58 49 46 53 45
3:10 PM 63 65 65 64 63 63 60 62 62 62 62 60 61 61 61 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 61 59 62 62 59 60 55 60 57 54 43 57 52 50 41 49
3:15 PM 63 64 64 63 63 64 63 64 64 63 63 60 60 61 60 59 62 59 60 60 59 59 58 62 61 61 62 62 63 63 63 63 61 61 61 60 52 52 44 58 53 56 58 48
3:20 PM 64 65 64 63 64 63 63 63 62 63 63 59 60 61 61 61 63 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 63 61 62 62 60 62 61 61 61 60 56 58 52 52 35 56 53 55 57 50
3:25 PM 63 64 64 64 63 62 63 63 63 63 63 59 61 61 60 63 62 61 61 61 59 59 61 59 62 60 60 60 60 60 61 62 59 58 57 60 54 48 36 58 53 44 41 45
3:30 PM 63 65 64 63 64 63 61 63 62 63 63 60 61 60 61 62 63 61 62 62 62 62 59 60 59 61 61 61 61 62 62 61 58 60 59 57 49 47 38 54 52 44 37 45
3:35 PM 64 64 63 64 63 64 63 64 63 63 63 61 62 60 60 62 62 60 59 59 59 59 61 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 59 61 56 58 60 59 52 47 35 55 50 48 41 45
3:40 PM 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 63 63 63 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 62 60 60 62 60 60 61 61 61 58 61 61 61 55 53 60 58 50 50 36 57 51 46 42 42
3:45 PM 63 65 64 63 64 62 62 59 62 61 61 59 60 60 61 62 63 62 59 59 61 61 60 62 62 60 62 62 62 62 63 63 54 58 61 60 51 49 34 52 50 42 44 46
3:50 PM 64 64 64 63 63 63 63 62 64 62 62 55 59 61 60 60 61 61 61 61 60 60 59 59 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 62 58 59 59 57 51 49 42 58 46 44 51 46
3:55 PM 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 62 63 63 59 61 59 60 61 62 60 60 60 60 60 59 60 61 61 59 59 58 61 60 61 57 57 54 60 49 48 33 58 53 49 48 46
4:00 PM 65 65 64 64 64 63 63 62 63 62 62 57 60 60 60 63 63 62 61 61 60 60 62 61 61 61 61 61 60 57 58 60 50 58 58 59 51 48 40 56 47 42 41 44
4:05 PM 64 64 64 63 64 64 64 65 64 64 64 61 62 59 60 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 61 61 61 62 62 61 60 57 59 59 58 52 50 37 56 49 55 50 46
4:10 PM 64 65 64 63 63 63 64 64 64 64 64 60 61 60 61 63 63 61 62 62 62 62 61 60 61 61 60 60 60 61 60 60 59 60 60 60 52 50 41 56 30 52 40 40
4:15 PM 66 65 64 64 64 63 64 63 62 63 63 59 61 59 60 62 62 62 61 61 62 62 61 61 60 62 60 60 60 59 61 60 54 55 60 61 54 48 34 57 32 58 54 47
4:20 PM 64 64 63 64 64 63 62 63 62 61 61 53 59 59 60 62 63 61 62 62 62 62 62 61 61 62 61 61 61 62 61 60 59 60 59 58 52 50 31 56 24 60 59 48
4:25 PM 63 65 64 63 63 64 64 64 63 63 63 58 61 60 61 61 63 62 61 61 61 61 62 59 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 57 60 59 57 53 54 36 56 26 58 49 46
4:30 PM 64 65 64 63 64 63 62 62 62 62 62 59 60 59 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 61 60 61 61 60 60 62 62 62 60 59 60 60 60 51 52 36 54 21 60 59 52
4:35 PM 62 65 64 64 62 62 64 63 64 63 63 60 62 57 61 60 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 60 61 59 61 55 53 39 55 27 59 58 48
4:40 PM 65 64 63 63 61 63 64 61 63 62 62 59 59 60 61 62 62 61 61 61 60 60 60 62 61 62 61 61 62 61 61 60 60 54 60 56 54 52 34 56 27 59 55 45
4:45 PM 65 65 64 63 63 63 61 63 63 63 63 59 60 56 60 60 62 61 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 61 62 61 60 61 59 59 53 54 44 55 25 59 57 44
4:50 PM 64 64 63 62 62 63 63 62 63 63 63 59 61 58 61 62 63 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 58 57 58 59 58 53 50 46 57 23 60 59 46
4:55 PM 63 64 64 63 64 64 62 63 63 62 62 59 61 60 61 62 63 61 62 62 61 61 62 61 61 60 61 61 61 62 61 62 52 56 61 60 55 52 38 57 24 59 57 49
5:00 PM 63 64 63 62 61 62 64 64 63 62 62 58 61 59 61 61 62 61 60 60 62 62 62 62 61 61 62 62 61 61 60 61 55 55 59 58 55 53 36 57 24 58 58 49
5:05 PM 64 65 63 63 63 62 63 62 62 60 60 59 61 59 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 59 60 61 61 58 60 59 60 59 59 58 58 56 55 36 56 25 58 57 44
5:10 PM 64 65 64 64 64 65 63 62 63 63 63 57 57 58 60 63 64 63 62 62 62 62 60 61 60 60 59 59 58 58 59 60 59 57 58 60 52 54 39 56 23 55 58 50
5:15 PM 64 64 61 62 61 62 63 62 62 64 64 60 30 58 60 63 63 63 62 62 61 61 63 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 59 61 62 61 60 59 54 53 43 57 23 52 37 44
5:20 PM 65 65 64 64 64 63 63 63 63 62 62 59 41 58 60 62 62 61 61 61 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 61 62 61 61 62 60 60 61 61 51 51 38 57 24 60 56 46
5:25 PM 64 65 64 64 64 64 64 61 62 62 62 58 24 59 61 62 63 63 62 62 61 61 62 61 62 62 62 62 61 62 60 60 60 60 60 59 52 52 34 57 21 54 53 51
5:30 PM 61 63 63 63 63 61 63 63 63 62 62 58 40 59 61 62 63 61 60 60 61 61 60 60 60 60 59 59 57 59 61 61 59 61 60 60 52 52 39 56 22 54 51 48
5:35 PM 63 64 62 62 63 61 60 63 61 62 62 60 35 59 61 63 63 63 63 63 60 60 61 60 59 59 62 62 62 61 61 61 59 59 59 60 58 57 34 57 20 60 58 53
5:40 PM 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 55 62 60 60 57 18 59 61 61 63 62 61 61 62 62 62 62 63 62 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 62 60 58 55 54 39 55 21 60 59 47
5:45 PM 63 64 63 62 62 63 62 62 62 62 62 53 18 58 60 62 62 62 61 61 60 60 61 60 62 62 62 62 62 61 61 61 60 59 61 61 53 52 40 57 22 58 58 47
5:50 PM 64 64 64 63 63 63 60 62 61 61 61 51 20 58 60 63 62 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 61 61 62 62 62 61 62 62 61 59 62 62 46 46 35 58 21 60 54 52
5:55 PM 63 64 63 62 64 64 62 64 63 63 63 29 18 58 61 61 61 61 60 60 62 62 62 60 60 60 60 60 61 60 61 59 59 61 58 60 48 50 38 56 23 57 56 51
6:00 PM 64 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 61 63 63 32 18 59 61 63 63 61 61 61 61 61 59 62 60 61 61 61 60 60 59 60 60 59 62 61 54 51 36 49 19 60 57 54
6:05 PM 64 65 63 64 63 62 64 63 63 60 60 27 19 60 61 62 63 62 62 62 61 61 62 62 61 62 61 61 62 61 62 62 60 61 57 56 53 49 36 58 25 59 58 46
6:10 PM 63 65 64 63 64 64 64 64 62 62 62 40 18 59 61 62 64 61 61 61 62 62 62 62 61 62 60 60 61 60 62 61 61 60 60 60 54 55 38 57 24 56 52 48
6:15 PM 64 65 65 65 64 64 63 62 63 63 63 52 18 58 60 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 63 62 62 61 61 63 62 61 61 60 60 58 59 54 53 38 55 21 53 47 48
6:20 PM 64 65 63 64 64 65 64 64 65 64 64 61 19 59 61 62 61 61 60 60 59 59 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 59 59 61 61 50 51 31 57 25 43 45 50
6:25 PM 64 64 63 62 63 62 65 63 62 65 65 59 36 60 61 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 59 61 61 58 60 60 61 58 58 60 61 55 52 38 56 20 49 35 50
6:30 PM 64 64 64 63 63 62 62 62 62 61 61 56 60 59 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 60 60 60 62 60 60 61 61 59 61 60 61 60 61 60 58 36 56 21 60 60 46
6:35 PM 65 66 65 63 64 64 62 63 62 61 61 58 62 59 61 61 62 61 60 60 61 61 61 62 60 60 62 62 62 61 59 61 60 59 61 60 59 60 36 56 22 57 58 55
6:40 PM 63 65 64 65 64 63 64 64 63 63 63 60 62 59 61 60 62 61 59 59 60 60 61 60 60 60 61 61 61 59 60 60 57 61 62 61 56 51 38 55 20 60 57 57
6:45 PM 64 66 65 64 65 63 63 65 65 64 64 61 62 59 61 61 62 60 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 60 61 61 60 59 61 61 58 58 57 60 51 50 37 57 18 59 56 60
6:50 PM 64 65 65 64 64 63 63 65 64 64 64 61 61 59 60 62 63 61 62 62 61 61 62 61 62 62 62 62 62 60 61 59 59 60 60 58 49 50 36 51 19 56 52 56
6:55 PM 65 65 65 64 63 63 64 62 62 63 63 61 61 60 61 61 61 62 60 60 61 61 62 62 62 62 63 63 61 60 61 60 61 61 60 59 42 44 33 54 18 60 59 52
7:00 PM 63 65 65 65 64 64 63 63 63 62 62 58 60 61 61 63 62 63 62 62 62 62 60 62 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 62 56 59 61 59 51 49 33 53 23 49 39 52
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.44
Table 6-19 (cont.)
EB HOT and GP Lane Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, Ultimate
Eastbound General Purpose Lanes
Speed Legend, Red, <25 mph, Yellow, 25-50 mph, Green, 50+ mph
GP Lanes
WEST
OF
Tustin
Tustin
to 55 55
55 -
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew
Lakevi
ew-
Imperia
l
Imperia
l
Imperia
l-Weir Weir
Weir-
241off 241
Gypsu
m
Gypsu
m-
241on
241on-
HOT
End
HOT
End
HOT
End-
Green
HOT
End-
Green Green Green
Green-
SR71
SR71 CD
off to On SR71
SR71-
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x
HOVmi
x-
Serfas Serfas
Serfas-
Maple Maple
Maple-
Lincoln
Maple-
Lincoln Lincoln
Lincoln-
2nd 2nd Main
Main-
ExI15off
MainCD
On to
15on
I15SBon-
I15NBon
HOT
Mixing
Area
e/o15
HOT Mix
to
McKinley
HOT Mix
to
McKinley McKinley HOVmix HOVmix
HOVmix-
Pierce Pierce Exit
0 623 707 768 30 31 45 50 36 54 12 135 58 141 27 62 32 32 157 311 71 889 76 161 161 171 80 176 84 88 88 184 188 197 203 103 215 219 225 231 235 240 244 247 159 255 258
2:05 PM 57 54 57 58 58 59 58 59 59 57 57 58 58 60 62 61 61 60 59 60 60 59 60 60 61 60 60 60 42 42 47 60 54 51 54 56 54 51 48 50 52 48 54 52 46 47
2:10 PM 57 48 57 58 58 58 59 59 60 59 58 59 59 60 62 60 60 60 59 60 58 59 60 60 61 59 60 56 41 41 46 61 52 51 54 52 55 57 56 54 53 41 52 45 44 49
2:15 PM 57 54 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 60 61 60 60 59 58 59 60 59 60 60 60 58 60 46 35 35 45 60 55 54 55 55 53 52 54 53 52 48 54 53 41 47
2:20 PM 56 51 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 57 59 58 59 62 61 61 60 60 60 60 59 60 60 61 60 60 25 38 38 45 60 54 54 56 55 56 56 57 51 54 49 54 49 43 47
2:25 PM 57 44 57 58 58 58 59 58 60 58 58 58 59 60 61 61 61 60 59 59 59 60 60 60 61 60 60 53 37 37 45 61 52 52 53 52 52 49 56 55 57 51 56 54 46 49
2:30 PM 57 38 57 58 58 59 59 59 59 58 58 58 59 59 62 61 61 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 60 60 55 33 33 45 60 53 54 53 53 54 53 50 48 50 43 53 50 49 49
2:35 PM 58 49 55 58 59 58 59 59 60 59 58 59 59 60 61 60 60 60 58 59 58 58 59 59 60 59 59 54 42 42 46 61 53 52 54 52 52 52 56 53 52 44 53 51 40 46
2:40 PM 57 52 58 58 58 59 58 59 60 59 58 58 59 59 62 61 61 60 60 61 61 60 61 61 61 60 60 28 41 41 49 61 52 52 54 53 54 52 54 50 50 48 53 54 42 47
2:45 PM 56 52 57 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 58 59 58 58 62 61 61 60 58 59 59 59 60 60 61 60 60 32 43 43 56 62 54 53 54 51 53 51 55 55 55 53 55 52 44 48
2:50 PM 57 46 58 58 58 59 58 58 59 59 58 58 58 59 61 61 61 60 59 60 59 58 59 59 60 59 60 38 41 41 50 62 54 49 53 53 55 54 56 52 52 49 53 51 45 48
2:55 PM 57 51 56 58 58 59 59 59 60 57 57 58 57 59 62 61 61 60 59 60 60 59 60 60 61 59 60 24 44 44 50 62 53 50 51 49 52 51 55 53 51 49 54 54 43 49
3:00 PM 57 44 58 58 59 59 59 59 60 58 59 59 59 60 61 61 61 60 59 57 60 59 60 60 61 60 60 42 40 40 53 61 54 53 53 53 54 51 54 48 49 44 52 52 44 48
3:05 PM 58 48 58 58 59 59 58 59 59 59 58 58 58 59 62 62 62 60 58 57 60 59 61 61 61 58 61 59 41 41 48 61 54 53 54 53 54 52 57 54 54 47 49 50 41 45
3:10 PM 57 38 58 58 58 59 59 58 59 58 58 58 57 58 61 61 61 60 59 61 60 60 61 61 61 59 61 53 41 41 49 62 54 54 55 55 57 54 56 54 53 50 52 51 44 49
3:15 PM 57 42 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 57 59 61 60 60 60 59 60 59 59 60 60 61 58 59 47 42 42 48 61 52 52 52 53 52 52 59 56 58 50 53 52 42 48
3:20 PM 57 39 58 57 58 59 59 59 59 58 57 57 53 59 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 59 60 60 61 59 60 48 42 42 49 62 54 53 56 53 52 52 54 50 53 45 53 52 45 50
3:25 PM 58 39 58 58 58 58 59 58 59 60 58 58 55 57 61 60 60 60 58 58 60 59 60 60 61 56 60 26 43 43 51 61 52 53 52 50 54 48 55 50 50 44 53 52 40 45
3:30 PM 58 39 59 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 57 58 54 58 60 61 61 61 60 61 60 60 60 60 61 54 59 25 39 39 58 62 54 52 53 50 49 47 48 49 51 43 52 51 40 45
3:35 PM 57 38 58 58 58 59 59 59 60 58 58 57 55 59 60 60 60 60 58 60 59 60 60 60 61 59 60 25 44 44 60 62 55 55 56 54 52 47 51 46 48 42 50 51 43 45
3:40 PM 57 37 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 59 58 58 57 58 61 61 61 60 59 57 60 59 60 60 60 58 48 27 44 44 56 61 54 53 53 51 50 50 56 54 48 45 51 46 42 42
3:45 PM 57 40 57 58 58 59 59 59 60 58 58 58 56 59 60 61 61 60 60 60 60 59 60 60 61 57 37 27 44 44 59 61 54 54 54 50 51 49 45 46 49 45 50 50 40 46
3:50 PM 57 37 58 58 58 59 57 58 59 59 59 59 54 59 61 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 60 23 26 44 44 51 61 54 52 51 49 51 49 50 47 50 39 46 47 42 46
3:55 PM 57 40 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 57 58 56 59 59 60 60 60 59 59 59 59 60 60 60 58 22 26 37 37 53 61 54 52 53 49 49 48 50 47 49 44 53 48 37 46
4:00 PM 58 41 59 59 59 59 59 59 60 60 58 59 57 57 60 60 60 60 59 58 60 59 60 60 61 59 22 25 38 38 51 61 51 51 54 52 51 48 48 45 49 38 47 36 39 44
4:05 PM 56 38 58 58 58 59 58 59 59 59 58 59 56 56 59 60 60 61 60 54 60 60 60 60 61 60 23 25 38 38 48 61 55 52 55 53 52 50 52 48 51 44 49 18 40 46
4:10 PM 57 37 58 58 58 59 58 58 59 59 58 58 56 52 60 61 61 61 59 60 60 60 60 60 62 59 20 23 44 44 51 62 55 52 53 52 52 50 52 52 50 44 30 19 40 40
4:15 PM 54 42 57 58 58 59 59 59 60 59 58 57 56 29 59 60 60 60 60 60 61 60 60 60 62 59 22 25 45 45 53 61 54 52 54 53 54 48 50 50 51 47 32 17 45 47
4:20 PM 56 47 57 58 58 58 57 58 59 58 58 58 55 26 59 60 60 61 60 58 60 59 60 60 60 58 24 24 44 44 54 63 55 54 55 55 52 50 47 44 51 39 24 19 43 48
4:25 PM 52 43 57 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 57 51 30 26 60 61 61 60 60 61 60 60 60 60 61 59 22 26 48 48 50 62 55 52 52 50 53 54 53 54 54 27 26 18 42 46
4:30 PM 53 51 57 58 58 57 59 58 59 58 58 20 28 26 59 61 61 60 59 57 60 59 60 60 61 60 37 25 44 44 49 61 55 55 53 50 51 52 56 54 53 25 21 15 47 52
4:35 PM 57 38 58 58 58 59 58 59 59 58 57 20 26 27 57 61 61 61 60 60 60 59 60 60 60 60 60 25 42 42 55 62 55 51 53 53 55 53 57 55 47 20 27 20 42 48
4:40 PM 58 38 58 58 58 59 58 58 60 59 22 19 24 27 60 61 61 61 59 60 60 60 60 60 61 60 61 26 42 42 55 62 55 53 55 54 54 52 57 53 25 29 27 19 39 45
4:45 PM 57 34 58 58 59 59 58 58 59 59 16 19 30 27 56 60 60 60 59 59 60 60 61 61 61 60 60 42 45 45 56 62 56 54 54 53 53 54 58 55 47 24 25 18 37 44
4:50 PM 57 34 59 59 59 60 59 59 60 59 20 20 25 26 58 61 61 61 60 61 61 60 60 60 61 58 61 58 43 43 54 61 52 52 53 52 53 50 56 53 51 22 23 19 41 46
4:55 PM 50 31 56 58 58 59 58 59 60 59 19 20 27 26 60 61 61 61 59 60 60 60 61 61 62 60 61 61 43 43 51 62 56 55 56 54 55 52 48 47 52 26 24 17 44 49
5:00 PM 36 37 57 58 58 59 58 58 60 58 17 17 24 27 59 61 61 60 58 61 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 59 45 45 52 61 55 53 55 55 55 53 58 55 55 19 24 17 44 49
5:05 PM 57 44 57 58 58 59 58 58 59 56 17 19 23 27 59 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 62 61 61 60 42 42 53 62 55 53 55 56 56 55 57 53 56 21 25 18 45 44
5:10 PM 57 40 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 19 18 20 30 27 58 60 60 60 59 57 60 60 61 61 61 60 61 60 50 50 51 62 54 53 56 52 52 54 59 58 56 22 23 17 42 50
5:15 PM 57 40 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 21 20 22 26 26 58 60 60 60 59 61 60 60 60 60 61 60 61 59 43 43 55 62 55 53 53 55 54 53 58 55 55 21 23 18 38 44
5:20 PM 58 39 59 58 59 59 59 59 60 22 18 19 25 25 58 60 60 60 59 60 60 59 60 60 61 59 60 60 42 42 54 62 52 53 53 48 51 51 56 54 54 25 24 19 39 46
5:25 PM 56 46 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 20 18 18 24 27 59 61 61 60 60 59 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 60 41 41 49 61 54 47 51 52 52 52 49 49 51 24 21 15 46 51
5:30 PM 57 40 57 58 59 59 59 58 60 20 16 19 24 28 59 61 61 61 59 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 61 62 39 39 49 62 50 41 55 53 52 52 58 54 53 18 22 15 50 48
5:35 PM 58 36 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 18 17 17 25 26 59 61 61 61 60 61 62 61 61 61 62 61 61 61 46 46 50 56 38 36 58 57 58 57 60 56 57 18 20 13 51 53
5:40 PM 56 36 58 59 59 59 59 60 60 38 17 18 25 26 59 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 62 62 53 53 44 36 34 32 54 54 55 54 61 59 58 16 21 18 39 47
5:45 PM 58 38 59 58 59 59 59 59 60 58 18 20 27 25 58 60 60 60 60 58 61 61 61 61 62 61 61 60 46 46 47 62 37 31 51 52 53 52 53 49 51 21 22 15 44 47
5:50 PM 57 41 59 58 59 59 59 60 60 61 17 20 25 25 58 60 60 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60 58 47 47 53 62 53 33 50 46 46 46 52 52 53 18 21 15 49 52
5:55 PM 58 37 58 58 59 60 59 59 60 60 18 20 28 27 58 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 61 61 48 48 54 62 55 32 52 50 48 50 56 53 54 19 23 16 47 51
6:00 PM 58 38 59 59 59 59 59 59 60 60 18 20 24 26 59 61 61 61 59 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 60 53 53 59 62 56 34 53 53 54 51 51 50 50 16 19 13 49 54
6:05 PM 58 42 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 60 18 19 26 26 60 61 61 61 60 61 60 60 60 60 62 60 61 61 48 48 59 63 54 51 54 53 53 49 56 52 40 22 25 17 45 46
6:10 PM 58 48 58 59 59 60 60 60 61 61 19 20 27 24 59 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 61 56 45 45 59 63 55 53 54 52 54 55 58 57 24 20 24 17 48 48
6:15 PM 58 48 58 59 59 60 60 60 61 61 60 21 27 27 58 60 60 61 60 61 61 61 61 61 62 61 61 56 43 43 56 62 55 47 53 51 54 53 59 54 45 16 21 16 44 48
6:20 PM 58 47 59 59 59 60 59 60 60 61 60 56 27 25 59 61 61 61 60 58 61 60 60 60 61 59 61 60 41 41 48 62 53 40 51 45 50 51 57 53 52 22 25 18 46 50
6:25 PM 58 43 59 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 59 60 39 26 60 61 61 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 61 60 47 47 56 58 42 44 56 54 55 52 53 48 51 22 20 10 52 50
6:30 PM 58 43 59 59 59 59 59 60 61 60 60 60 59 27 59 62 62 61 60 61 62 61 62 62 62 61 62 61 45 45 46 46 44 41 61 59 60 58 62 61 60 15 21 15 40 46
6:35 PM 58 44 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 60 59 60 61 31 59 61 61 61 60 61 61 61 62 62 62 60 62 61 25 25 30 35 34 33 57 58 59 60 61 62 62 20 22 12 56 55
6:40 PM 58 46 58 59 59 60 59 60 60 60 60 60 59 61 59 61 61 61 60 62 61 62 62 62 62 61 62 56 21 21 32 26 31 30 51 52 56 51 57 54 57 16 20 12 52 57
6:45 PM 58 42 58 59 59 59 59 60 61 60 60 60 60 61 59 61 61 61 59 59 61 60 60 60 61 60 57 22 28 28 47 50 34 33 56 53 51 50 44 51 50 16 18 11 57 60
6:50 PM 58 47 56 58 59 60 59 59 60 60 60 60 59 61 59 60 60 61 60 61 62 61 62 62 62 60 46 23 30 30 46 62 48 32 47 45 49 50 60 57 32 14 19 11 54 56
6:55 PM 58 51 58 59 59 59 58 59 60 61 60 59 58 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 62 61 62 62 62 60 55 25 32 32 44 62 54 48 49 45 42 44 47 42 21 13 18 13 49 52
7:00 PM 58 56 59 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 59 60 59 60 61 61 61 61 59 60 60 60 61 61 62 61 61 23 38 38 51 62 56 52 52 49 51 49 53 27 13 17 23 14 51 52
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.45
Eastbound express traffic flow is presented in Figure 6-42 and remains at approximately a 2,500
vehicle per hour rate throughout the PM simulation period. Demand for the eastbound to
southbound movement grows as congestion on I-15 southbound increases. By 5 PM, demand
for the south connector exceeds demand for the eastbound through movement.
Figure 6-42
Eastbound Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2035 Network
The westbound Express Lanes offer litt le time savings for users traveling from east to west
although speeds are 10 miles per hour higher than experienced on the general purpose lanes.
For motorists traveling via I-15 northbound, northbound to westbound connector would save
more than 9 minutes at the peak due to increased congestion on I-15 northbound.
2,279
2,479 2,553 2,466 2,520
1,363
1,624 1,628
1,223 1,225
890 849 940
1,235 1,302
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2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM
SR 91 Eastbound Riverside County Express Lanes Traffic
RCTC 91 XL RCTC 91 XL, through RCTC 91 XL, to 15 SB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.46
Figure 6-43
Westbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, I-15 to Green River Road
Figure 6-44
Westbound Speeds, 2035 by 2035 Network, Ontario Avenue to Green River Road
Traffic on the westbound express lanes ranges from just under 900 vehicles per hour to nearly
1,200 vehicles per hour. Movements from the east to the west remain a larger contributor th an
the south connector.
0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 0.1
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Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
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SR 91 Westbound: Ontario Avenue to Green River Road
Time Savings Target Speed GP Express
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.47
Figure 6-45
Westbound Express Lanes Distribution, 2035 by 2035 Network
Revenue Forecast
The VISSIM micro simulation model predicts total 2-7 PM toll traffic and revenue that are
similar to market share model forecasts. Micro simulation model toll traffic is 10 percent lower
than predicted by the market share model, while revenue is approximately 3 percent higher,
again buoyed by higher toll rates.
1,009
1,189
892
1,115
943
664 745
581 582 563
327
453
311
527
378
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SR 91 Westbound Riverside County Express Lanes Traffic
RCTC 91 XL RCTC 91 XL, through RCTC 91 XL, via 15NB
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.48
Figure 6-46
Express Lanes Toll Traffic, 2035 by 2035 Network
Figure 6-47
Express Lanes Revenue, 2035 by 2035 Network
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.49
Table 6-20
Express Lane Traffic and Revenue, 2035 by 2035 Network 2-7 PM
* Average Toll charged excluding HOV3+ vehicles which are assumed toll free.
Figure 6-48 through Figure 6-52 illustrate traffic conditions predicted by the micro simulation
model at various segments of the corridor at 4:40 PM. Traffic is lighter than shown in the 2035
by 2020 Network scenario.
SR 91 Eastbound
Revenue, 2010$'s Average Toll Charged*Total Express Traffic
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $5,043 $8,257 $2.27 $3.86 2,349 2,404
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $11,498 $11,842 $5.09 $5.05 2,470 2,849
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $15,192 $15,489 $7.49 $6.51 2,299 3,037
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $16,705 $15,689 $8.81 $6.52 2,168 3,083
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $15,951 $15,735 $8.84 $6.52 2,117 3,020
Total 2-7 PM $64,389 $67,012 $6.50 $5.69 11,403 14,393
SR 91 Westbound
Revenue, 2010$'s Average Toll Charged*Total Express Traffic
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $1,427 $1,101 $1.46 $1.50 1,018 861
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $1,559 $1,353 $1.47 $1.51 1,102 1,044
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $2,025 $2,242 $1.54 $2.21 1,385 1,197
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $1,949 $2,431 $1.53 $2.20 1,341 1,292
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $1,258 $857 $0.98 $1.50 1,347 723
Total 2-7 PM $8,217 $7,983 $1.40 $1.78 6,193 5,117
SR 91 EB &WB
Revenu,2010$'s Average Toll Charged*Total Express Traffic
From To Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model Vissim T&R model
2:00 PM 3:00 PM $6,470 $9,358 $2.02 $3.25 3,367 3,265
3:00 PM 4:00 PM $13,057 $13,194 $3.94 $4.07 3,572 3,893
4:00 PM 5:00 PM $17,217 $17,731 $5.15 $5.12 3,684 4,234
5:00 PM 6:00 PM $18,654 $18,119 $5.88 $5.02 3,509 4,375
6:00 PM 7:00 PM $17,209 $16,592 $5.58 $5.47 3,464 3,743
Total 2-7 PM $72,606 $74,994 $4.50 $4.62 17,596 19,510
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.50
Figure 6-48
Orange County SR 91 Mixing Area, 4:40 PM
Figure 6-49
Serfas Club Drive, 4:40 PM
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.51
Figure 6-50
Lincoln Avenue, 4:40 PM
Figure 6-51
I-15/SR 91 Interchange, 4:40 PM
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Micro-Simulation Model
May 9, 2012
6.52
Figure 6-52
McKinley Street, 4:40 PM
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
7.1
7.0 Marketshare Analysis
7.1 OVERVIEW
This chapter discusses the development of a set of “market share curves” which model the
revealed preference of Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes full toll paying users. The existing
Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes are located immediately west of the western terminus of
the proposed Riverside County SR 91 Express Lanes. They would be separated only by a n
approximately 1.5 mile mixing zone, between SR 241 and Green River Road, and would operate
with similar operational policies. Both roads would charge most users variable toll s, tied to
congestion, and both roads would serve travelers commuting between Orange and Riverside
Counties. Because of their similarities, behaviors exhibited by users of the existing SR 91
Express Lanes are expected to be similar to behaviors of future potential users of the proposed
Riverside County SR 91 Express Lanes.
7.2 METHODOLOGY
The market share curves are built from a compilation of traffic, speed, and income data
collected in 2008 and 2009. General purpose lane hourly traffic and speed data from the PEMS
database, and SR 91 Express lanes hourly traffic and toll data obtained from the Orange County
Transportation Authority (OCTA) were compared against each other to develop relationships
between global traffic demand (the combination of general purpose and Express Lane traffic),
and demand to use the existing SR 91 Express Lanes. Income stratification as r eported in the
2009 SR 91 Express Lanes customer satisfaction survey were used to support estimation of the
toll elasticity of demand. The result is a set of curves that predict express lane toll vehicle usage
given a global volume to capacity (V/C) ratio, and a toll expressed as a cost per mile of travel.
7.3 EXISTING EXPRESS TRAFFIC VS GLOBAL V/C
Selection of an Analysis Direction
Market share relationships observed on the eastbound SR 91 Express Lanes were chosen to be
the basis for future market share of both directions of the Riverside County Express Lanes.
Westbound SR 91 Express Lanes market share data were not used.
Figure 7-1 demonstrates the difference between SR 91 eastbound and westbound express
traffic. On average from July 2007 to June 2008, eastbound weekday traffic peaked at
approximately 3,000 vehicles per hour while westbound traffic peaked at approximately 2,200
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.2
vehicles per hour. Full toll paying traffic eastbound was 2,500 vehicles per hour at the intraday
peak, and westbound toll traffic reached a high of 1,600 vehicles per hour. The difference in
demand is also expressed by the difference in tolls charged. During July 2008, the full toll from
Monday to Thursday averaged more than $8.00, while westbound tolls were less than $4.50.
Figure 7-1
SR 91 Express Lanes Weekday Traffic, Fiscal Year 2008
0
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EB All Express EB Full Toll WB All Express WB Full Toll
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.3
Figure 7-2
SR 91 Express Lanes Tolls, Average Monday to Thursday, July 2008
The difference in traffic and tolls is in part attributable to differences in general purpose lane
travel times. Peak period travel times on the eastbound and westbound general purpose lanes
in Orange County differ substantially. While westbound is the peak travel direction during the
AM peak period, and the eastbound is the peak travel direction during the PM peak, travel
times can be over twice as high in the eastbound direction.
In a recent survey of travel times, which already include the additional eastbound general
purpose auxiliary lane between SR 241 and SR 71, eastbound motorists required more than 35
minutes to travel eastbound from SR 55 to the County Line, but the reverse trip during the
morning rush hour required less than 15 minutes. During free -flow periods, travel time was just
under 9 minutes. In addition to differences in the intensity of congestion, the eastbound lanes
experienced congestion throughout the 3.5 hour PM survey period while the westbound lanes
were congested for 2 hours. Additional data as shown in Chapter 3 show that the eastbound
lanes are congested for 4 to 5 hours, and the westbound lanes experience about 3 hours of
congestion. Figure 7-3 illustrates the weekday peak period travel times observed in July 2011.
$0.00
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Eastbound
Westbound
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.4
Figure 7-3
SR 91 GP Lane Travel Time, SR 55 to County Line, July 2011
Riverside County SR 91 travel time data recorded in November 2010, which aggregate travel
time on the general purpose and HOV lanes, show that both directions experience intense
congestion, and duration of congestion comparable to that on the eastbound Orange County SR
91 GP lanes. The westbound lanes are congested for well over 4 hours, and motorists
experience travel times of over 35 minutes. Eastbound, congestion lasts for more than 5 hou rs,
although travel times are lower, reaching a maximum of 20 minutes. The data presented in
Figure 7-4 aggregate both GP and HOV lane travel times. GP lane only travel times are likely
higher than presented. Orange County SR 91 eastbound Express Lane market share
relationships are expected to better reflect decisions to use the Riverside County SR 91 Express
Lanes better than westbound market share relationships.
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.5
Figure 7-4
SR 91 GP & HOV Travel Time, County Line to McKinley Street, November 2010
Selection of Analysis Point
Market share analysis was conducted for the single most congested segment of the roadway.
Where the road is most congested, bottlenecks form and users experience substantial delay. It
is expected that travelers’ decision to pay a toll to use the Express Lanes would be largely due
to the congestion experienced at the road’s bottleneck location. An analysis of average
weekday traffic data on SR 91 show that on a per lane basis, the eastbound lanes between SR
241 and the Orange and Riverside County Line show the greatest congestion, and in the
westbound direction, the segment between Imperial Highway and Weir Canyon Road has the
greatest per lane volume. Daily traffic levels per lane are illustrated in Figure 7-5.
0
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6-7 AM 7-8 AM 8-9 AM 9-10 AM 2-3 PM 3-4 PM 4-5 PM 5-6 PM 6-7 PM 7-8 PM
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.6
Figure 7-5
Average Weekday General Purpose Volume per Lane
7.3.1 Eastbound Express Traffic vs. Global Traffic
Eastbound curves were developed from year 2008 and 2009 traffic and speed data collected
from PEMS (GP lane traffic and speed) and from the Orange County Transportation Authority
(SR 91 Express traffic). During the period from mid-2009 to mid-2010, construction of the
eastbound auxiliary lane from SR 241 to SR 71 caused higher than normal congestion on SR 91
EB and boosted express lane traffic. Data from this period were not used because they are not
believed to be indicative of typical conditions. Both GP and Express Lanes data were analyzed
on an hourly basis, removing the impacts of holidays and days with atypical travel conditions.
Express lanes traffic demonstrates a strong direct correlation with GP lane traffic, and was used
to build the market share curves. Figure 7-6 shows that as GP lane traffic rises, express lane
traffic also rises. However, as the GP lanes approach and exceed capacity, GP l ane traffic flow
declines while express lane traffic continues to increase.
A comparison of express lanes traffic and GP lane speed, presented in Figure 7-7 also
demonstrate correlation, but by inspection, it can be seen that there is greater correlation
between GP lane traffic and Express traffic.
32,200
24,200
24,100
19,600
27,000
27,200
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.7
Figure 7-6
Eastbound Express Traffic (Full Toll and HOV3+) vs. GP Lane Traffic
Figure 7-7
Eastbound Express Traffic (Full Toll and HOV3+) vs. GP Lane Speed
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SR
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GP Lanes over
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01020304050607080
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.8
Express lane traffic data were further disaggregated into full toll paying and vehicles that travel
for free or pay a 50% discounted rate from 4-6 PM (generally registered HOV-3+ carpools, and
will be referred to as “HOV-3+”). HOV-3+ express lane users travel toll free during all hours
except from 4-6 PM when they pay a 50 percent discounted toll.
By the time the Riverside County Express Lanes are scheduled to be open for operations in
2017, it is expected that the toll for HOV-3+ vehicles will be eliminated entirely. The significant
difference in tolls charged HOV-3+ and full toll vehicles today, and expected to be charged in
the future suggests that the decision and revealed behavior of full toll traffic and HOV -3+ traffic
should be considered separately. Figure 7-8 shows the relationship between full toll and GP
lane traffic, while Figure 7-9 compares HOV-3+ traffic on the SR 91 Express lanes and GP lane
traffic. Full toll traffic maintains a strong correlation with GP lane traffic. While HOV -3+ traffic
also demonstrate some correlation, the data show distinct levels of HOV-3+ utilization at
common GP lane traffic levels, and suggest factors other than tolls or congestion are
responsible for HOV-3+ demand levels.
Figure 7-8
Eastbound Full Toll Traffic vs. GP Lane Traffic
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.9
Figure 7-9
Eastbound HOV3+ Traffic vs. GP Lane Traffic
7.3.2 Congested Period Demand Estimation and Global V/C
Available count and speed data were converted into market share and a demand based global
V/C ratio. GP and Express Lane data demonstrate that at the highest levels of Express Lane
usage, GP lane traffic counts show flow that is lower than exists during sh oulder hours. During
these hours, demand is overcapacity, and the GP lanes are constrained by high volumes, high
weaving, and potentially downstream bottlenecks. The low traffic counts do not show the high
demand that exists during these times of day. GP l ane traffic counts were converted to an
equivalent demand based on capacity and speed data. If data points that show traffic lower
than counted in shoulder hours and congested speeds, they are increased above capacity,
effectively creating an equivalent GP lane demand level. Increases were based on the Akcelik
speed flow curve, speeds reported by the PEMS database, and capacities observed from count
data.
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1,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
SR
9
1
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GP Lane Count
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.10
Figure 7-10
General Purpose Lane Demand Adjustment
Figure 7-11
Akcelik Speed and V/C Curve
Global V/C was calculated using a general purpose lane capacity of 7,800 vehicles per hour, or
1,950 per lane. Count data were analyzed over the two year period from 2008 and 2009, prior
to the start of construction of the SR 91 eastbound auxiliary lane pr oject, which is known to
have degraded corridor capacity and boosted SR 91 Express Lane volume. Capacity for purposes
of the market share curve analysis was identified as the point where flow reached a maximum
and speeds degraded well below free-flow levels. The data shown in Figure 7-12 illustrates GP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
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9,000
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(
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Ge
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(
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)
GP Count Demand Adjusted GP Volume SPEED
0
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80
0.0
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p
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)
GP Lane V/C
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.11
lane count and speed data for weekdays, Fridays, and weekends, and shows that the general
purpose lanes were not able to consistently process more than approximately 7,800 vehicles
per hour.
Figure 7-12
SR 91 Eastbound General Purpose Lane Capacity, Weekday, Friday, & Weekend
Capacity of the SR 91 Express Lanes was assumed at 4,200 vehicles per hour, or 2,100 vehicles
per lane. Tolls on the 91 Express Lanes have historically limited demand to levels that maintain
free flow, and therefore lower than capacity. Capacity is assumed higher than on the ge neral
purpose lanes because of the lack of entry or exit ramps and lack of trucks, both elements that
reduce freeway capacity.
On a global (general purpose and express lanes combined) basis, capacity of the SR 91 at the SR
241 to County Line bottleneck was assumed to be 12,000 vehicles per hour. Global V/C’s were
calculated by dividing the global demand (Akcelik curve adjusted GP lane count plus express
lane count) per hour by the global capacity. Figure 7-13 illustrates GP, Express, and Global V/C
for each hour of a typical weekday in 2009.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
GP
S
p
e
e
d
s
(
m
p
h
)
General Purpose Lane Volume (vehicles /hour)
Weekday, Friday, Weekend
Capacity = 7,800 vehs/hr
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.12
Figure 7-13
SR 91 Eastbound GP, Express, and Global V/C
7.3.3 Toll Curve Fitting
Toll curves representing historical prices charged were fitted through the resulting global
demand and toll market share data points. The data were segmented into eastbound weekday
(Monday to Thursday), eastbound Friday, and eastbound weekend (Saturday and Sunday), and
further segmented by price. Figure 7-14 shows some sample data points for weekdays through
which are the basis for the construction of weekday toll curves.
0.00
0.10
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0.90
1.00
1.10
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R
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(
V
/
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)
Hour Beginning
GP v/c HOT v/c Global V/C
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.13
Figure 7-14
SR 91 Eastbound Express Full Toll Traffic Market share vs. Global V/C Data Plot, Weekdays
Curves representing unique prices from $1.25 to $10 were fit through available data points. For
each price, the data were available for only a limited range of global v/c levels. For example at
$1.25, data exist only from the 0.05 to 0.45 range. To create a continuous curve for all V/C
values from 0 to 1.30, market shares were estimated for ranges not represented by data. The
estimation process relies on data available at higher or lower global V/C’s but at other prices.
Elasticity of demand to different prices was calculated and extrapolated for lower and higher
prices. At low global v/c’s, it is expected that drivers would be far less willing to pay the tolls
that are charged during the most congested times of day (currently nearly $10). To express a
reduced willingness to pay, price elasticity in the low congestion range was generally in the
elastic range. For higher tolls and the lower end of global V/C, toll traffic would decline by a
percentage greater than that of the price increase. However at high global v/c’s, most toll
curves show an inelastic response to price increases, but transition from inelastic to elastic as
prices increase. For example, for a 0.95 global V/C, toll curves change from inelastic to elastic at
the $20 toll level. Effectively this price represents a revenue maximizing toll. The maximizing
level was derived from analysis of the income distribution and reported versus actual time
savings of SR 91 Express Lanes users. The result was a set of curves representing prices from
$1.25 to $32.00 for global V/C’s from 0 to 1.30. Figure 7-15 presents sample toll curves for a
$1.25 and $5.60 price (year 2008$’s) for eastbound traffic on a typical weekday.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
0
0
0.0
5
0
0.1
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Global V/C
Global vs Toll Marketshare
Price Group 1 / $1.23
Price Group 2 / $1.90
Price Group 3 / $2.85
Price Group 4 / $3.87
Price Group 5 / $4.16
Price Group 6 / $4.86
Price Group 7 / $5.62
Price Group 8 / $8.21
Price Group 9 / $8.59
Price Group 10 / $9.30
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.14
Figure 7-15
SR 91 Eastbound Express Weekday Toll Curves
Friday toll curves predict lower traffic than the weekday curves do in the 0.30 to 0.75 global v/c
ranges. At the 0.60 v/c point, for a toll cost of $3.65, Friday toll traffic was approximately 6% of
global traffic while typical weekday share was approximately 8%.
Weekend toll curves are similar to weekday levels from the 0.00 to 0.50 global v/c ranges. For
higher global v/c’s, weekday toll curves predict more traffic than wee kend toll curves. At the
1.00 global v/c level, weekday curves predict approximately 22% toll market share, while
weekend curves predict just over 20%. The weekend curve represents lower demand on
weekends, likely from a combination of lower value of time, fewer eligible users, and reduced
expectations for high and persistent congestion.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
0
0.0
5
0.1
0
0.1
5
0.2
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5
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To
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s
h
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Global V/C
Global vs Toll Marketshare
$1.25 Toll $5.60 Toll
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.15
Figure 7-16
SR 91 Eastbound Express Weekday, Friday, and Weekend Toll Curves
7.3.4 Toll Traffic and Revenue Forecast vs. Actual
Collectively the toll curves are able to replicate actual full toll traffic and revenue with a
reasonable range of precision. Using the weekday (Monday to Thursday), Friday, and weekend
full toll traffic curves, predicted full toll traffic over a full w eek was 2.6% higher and revenue
was 0.9% lower than actual levels. Weekend traffic and revenue were over-predicted by 7% and
6% respectively, while weekday and Friday traffic and revenue were within 3% of actual.
Table 7-1
Eastbound Weekday Full Toll Traffic and Revenue, Model vs. Actual, 2008 to 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
To
l
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a
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S
h
a
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Global V/C
Weekday
Friday
Weekend
Actual Marketshare Model % Difference
Weekday Toll Traffic 17,899 18,318 2.3%
Weekday Toll Revenue $87,217 $86,083 -1.3%
Friday Full Toll Traffic 20,163 20,122 -0.2%
Friday Full Toll Revenue $111,865 $109,378 -2.2%
Weekend Full Toll Traffic 8,937 9,566 7.0%
Weekend Full Toll Revenue $21,385 $22,676 6.0%
Week Full Toll Traffic 109,632 112,526 2.6%
Week Full Toll Revenue $503,505 $499,063 -0.9%
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.16
On an hourly basis, average weekday traffic and revenue follow actual hourly trends. Weekday
toll curves over-predict AM traffic and revenue levels and slightly under-predict PM peak period
traffic and revenue.
Friday toll curves also over-predict AM peak period traffic and revenue, and under-predict late
evening levels. PM peak period traffic and revenue are on average on par with actual results.
Weekend toll curves generally over-predict both traffic and revenue on average Saturdays and
Sundays, resulting in traffic and revenue 7% and 6% higher, respectively. However the absolute
volume and revenue differences are small compared to weekday and Friday level s, and the
curves do a good job of following the intraday changes in actual traffic and revenue.
Figure 7-17
SR 91 Express EB, Monday to Thursday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
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Hour Beginning
Actual Toll Volume Modeled
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.17
Figure 7-18
SR 91 Express EB, Monday to Thursday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual
Figure 7-19
SR 91 Express EB, Friday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
$22,500
12
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Hour Beginning
Actual Toll Revenue Modeled
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
12:00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM
To
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a
f
f
i
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Hour Beginning
Actual Modeled
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.18
Figure 7-20
SR 91 Express EB, Friday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual
Figure 7-21
SR 91 Express EB, Saturday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual
$0
$2,250
$4,500
$6,750
$9,000
$11,250
$13,500
$15,750
$18,000
$20,250
$22,500
$24,750
$27,000
12:00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM
Re
v
e
n
u
e
Hour Beginning
Actual Modeled
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
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2,750
12
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Hour Beginning
Actual Modeled
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.19
Figure 7-22
SR 91 Express EB, Saturday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual
Figure 7-23
SR 91 Express EB, Sunday Full Toll Hourly Volume, Modeled vs. Actual
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
$22,500
$25,000
12
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Hour Beginning
Actual Modeled
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
12
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Hour Beginning
Actual Modeled
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.20
Figure 7-24
SR 91 Express EB, Sunday Full Toll Hourly Revenue, Modeled vs. Actual
7.4 APPLICATION TO RIVERSIDE COUNTY EXPRESS LANES
To apply the existing SR 91 Express Lanes market share curves for the Riverside County Express
Lanes, it is necessary to modify the toll curves to reflect the adjacent lane configuration and
future toll structure. The Riverside County Express lanes would be located adjacent to general
purpose lanes that would be 5 lanes wide at their most congested locations, while the existing
SR 91 Express Lanes are adjacent to 4 lane wide GP lane segments. Tolls are assumed to be
initially pegged to the distance of the facility, and the RC Express Lanes would be approximately
2 miles shorter in length.
7.4.1 Lane Configuration Adjustment
A set of toll curves reflecting a 5 general purpose lane and 2 Express Lane configuration was
developed for application to the Riverside County Express Lanes. In the existing condition, the
Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes generally account for one-third of the corridor’s capacity (2
lanes out of the total 6 GP and Express). In the future, GP lane additions in both Orange and
Riverside County will increase capacity by 1 to 2 GP lanes. It is believed that if the Express Lanes
represent a lower percentage of corridor capacity (about 29% in a 5 GP and 2 XL case, and 25%
in a 6 GP and 2 XL case), the shape of the market share curves should be changed to reflect
lower toll market shares for the same level of global V/C and price. The downward adjustment
maintains the GP and Express Lane volume per lane ratios inherent in the market share curves,
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
$22,500
$25,000
12
:
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Hour Beginning
Actual Modeled
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Marketshare Analysis
May 9, 2012
7.21
but ultimately lowers the level of the curves. Representative weekday toll curves for a 5 general
purpose lane and 2 Express Lane configuration and a 4 general purpose and 2 Express Lane
configuration are shown in Figure 7-25.
Figure 7-25
SR 91 Express EB, Weekday Toll Curve, 4 GP/2XL vs. 5 GP/2 XL
7.4.2 Toll Adjustment
The market share curves are applied to the Riverside County Express Lanes on a toll per mile
basis. The Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes are approximately 10 miles in each direction and
tolls range from $1.30 to $9.50. Each toll curve developed represents the full toll traffic market
share for a unique toll charged. The proposed Riverside County SR 91 Express Lanes are overall
shorter than the Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes. The extended lanes would span about 7
miles from the western ingress/ egress west of Green River Road to the eastern ingre ss/egress
at I-15. Trips starting or ending at the southern ingress/egress on I -15 would travel about 10
miles on the Express Lanes. To account for the RC XL’s shorter trips, market shares are assumed
to apply on a toll rate per mile basis. That is, the market share for a given v/c level and $5 toll
on the Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes will also be used on the Riverside County Express
Lanes but the toll charged would be 50 cents per mile. For a 7 -mile trip, the Riverside County
Express Lane charge would be $3.50 while a 10-mile trip would still be $5.00.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Fu
l
l
T
o
l
l
M
a
r
k
e
t
S
h
a
r
e
Global V/C
4 GP, 2 XL
5 GP, 2 XL
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
8.1
8.0 Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
8.1 TOLL POLICY
There are several methods to approach the setting of tolls for the RCTC SR 91 Express Lanes
project. As part of this study, traffic and revenue streams were estimated for two different
tolling policies: 1) implementing the existing OCTA toll policy and 2) implementing an
“enhanced” toll policy that is based on the OCTA policy, but allows for the increase of off-peak
toll rates once certain volume thresholds are exceeded. The enhanced policy is similar to the
OCTA policy as it ties toll increases to traffic volumes, though it allows greater toll flexibility
during non-peak periods.
8.1.1 OCTA SR 91 TOLL POLICY
We began by reviewing and implementing the toll policy begun and being used for the OCTA SR
91 project in Orange County. Historically, when the SR 91 project was owned and operated by
private owners from 1995 to 2002, tolls were increased in response to general traffic demand i n
the corridor. The level of tolls roughly matched the level of traffic demand on the Express lanes,
as shown in the following charts:
Figure 8-1
SR 91 Express EB Tolls, 1997-1999
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.2
Figure 8-2
SR 91 Express WB Tolls, 1997-1999
Tolls were set to match this pattern, but were then changed as the value of the lanes became
more apparent, as the private owners were attempting to judge what level of toll was
appropriate for each time period.
Figure 8-3
SR 91 Express EB Tolls, 1997-2010
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.3
Of particular interest is the increase in tolls in the off peak period, for example the middle of
the night, which began at $0.25 in 1995 and quickly increased to $1.00 by March of 2000.
The acquisition of the privately owned facility by OCTA in 2002 changed the nature of the toll
policy. The focus by OCTA was on peak period “throughput” of traffic, rather than revenue
producing potential and as such, their toll policy reflected this interest. OCTA set up a 12 week
rolling period of backward looking review of traffic volumes for each of the 168 hours per week,
but only would change tolls if hourly traffic met certain traffic volume thre sholds, as indicated
in the chart below. All other periods were only increased by cost of living adjustments annually.
Figure 8-4
OCTA Toll Policy
The results of this change in toll policy changed how tol ls increased over time, with a greater
emphasis on peak periods than previously. As a result, the relative shape of the toll rate curve
became somewhat out of sync with the traffic demand as demonstrated by the following chart.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.4
Figure 8-5
OCTA Toll Policy
Toll rates have the same sharp peak as they did in the 1990s, when traffic also demonstrated a
very sharp peaking pattern. The good news for OCTA is that the toll policy has met its objectives
of focusing on peak period growth, such that the peak hours have shown the lowest growth of
any hourly period during the typical weekday.
Figure 8-6
OCTA Toll Policy
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.5
Applying the OCTA toll policy to our 2035 traffic forecasts results in a toll schedule as shown in
Table 8-1 below.
Table 8-1
2035 EB Toll Schedule, OCTA Toll Policy (2008 $s)
8.1.2 ENHANCED SR 91 TOLL POLICY
A variation of the base toll created reflects the ability of the Express Lanes to capture greater
revenue potential than implied in the OCTA Toll Policy by moving rates upward each year at
their value points, rather than at prescribed formulas. This allows a greater toll rate and
generates additional revenue compared to the OCTA Toll Policy, as demonstrated in Figure 8-7.
Time Sun Mon - Thurs Fri Sat
12:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
1:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
2:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
3:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
4:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
5:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
6:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
7:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
8:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
9:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.70
10:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.70
11:00 AM $1.70 $1.10 $1.10 $1.70
12:00 PM $1.70 $1.10 $1.70 $1.70
1:00 PM $1.70 $1.70 $2.50 $1.70
2:00 PM $1.70 $2.50 $3.35 $2.50
3:00 PM $1.70 $3.35 $4.20 $2.50
4:00 PM $1.70 $4.20 $7.15 $2.50
5:00 PM $1.70 $4.20 $8.10 $2.50
6:00 PM $1.70 $4.20 $8.70 $2.50
7:00 PM $1.70 $3.35 $3.35 $1.70
8:00 PM $1.70 $1.70 $3.35 $1.70
9:00 PM $1.70 $1.10 $2.50 $1.70
10:00 PM $1.10 $1.10 $1.70 $1.70
11:00 PM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.6
Figure 8-7
OCTA Toll Policy vs. Enhanced Toll Policy
.
As the chart above demonstrates, over time, as traffic grows in the shoulder and off -peak
hours, the rates charged under the existing OCTA toll policy (shown in blue) fall below the
potential value of the trip at various traffic levels (shown in red). The enhanced policy allows
for the adjustments of these rates on a yearly basis as necessary to more closely replicate traffic
volumes. As an example, using the OCTA toll policy a rate per mile of approximately $0.30
would be charged for the HOT traffic volu me of 2,500 in the chart above compared to almost
$0.50 per mile under the enhanced toll policy.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.7
Applying the enhanced toll policy to our 2035 traffic forecasts results in a toll schedule as
shown in Table 8-2 below.
Table 8-2
2035 EB Toll Schedule, Enhanced Toll Policy (2008 $s)
Of particular interest in the toll schedule above is the difference between the shoulder and off -
peak rates between applying the OCTA toll policy versus the enhanced policy. While overnight
rates are the same, some hours vary quite dramatically. For example, the 4-5PM hour under
the OCTA policy would result in a toll rate of $4.20 as toll volumes do not exceed the 3,200
volume threshold for an increase. This same hour under the enhanced toll policy results in a
toll rate of $7.15.
8.2 TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ESTIMATES
Utilizing the data and methodologies outlined throughout this report, fifty year traffic and
revenue streams were estimated for both the OCTA and enhanced toll policies. The detailed
results are shown in Table 8-3 and Table 8-4 below.
Time Sun Mon-Thurs Fri Sat
12:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
1:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
2:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
3:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
4:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
5:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
6:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
7:00 AM $1.10 $1.70 $1.70 $1.10
8:00 AM $1.10 $1.70 $1.70 $1.70
9:00 AM $1.10 $1.70 $1.10 $1.70
10:00 AM $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $2.50
11:00 AM $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $2.50
12:00 PM $2.50 $1.70 $2.50 $2.50
1:00 PM $2.50 $2.50 $3.35 $2.50
2:00 PM $2.50 $4.20 $4.90 $3.35
3:00 PM $2.50 $5.55 $7.15 $3.35
4:00 PM $2.50 $7.15 $7.15 $4.20
5:00 PM $2.50 $7.15 $8.10 $4.20
6:00 PM $2.50 $7.15 $8.10 $3.35
7:00 PM $2.50 $5.55 $5.55 $2.50
8:00 PM $2.50 $2.50 $4.90 $1.70
9:00 PM $1.70 $1.70 $3.35 $1.70
10:00 PM $1.10 $1.10 $1.70 $1.70
11:00 PM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.70
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.8
Both toll policies have similar patterns for traffic growth, with global corridor traffic growing by
slightly more than 1 percent until 2035, when traffic growth slows to approximately 0.5 percent
per year. Express Lane transactions grow by approximately 3 percent per year for the OCTA toll
policy case versus approximately 2.6 percent in the enhanced case. This slight reduction in
transaction growth can be attributed to the higher toll rates charged under the enhanced toll
policy.
The largest difference is in revenue growth, where the OCTA toll policy grows just under 4
percent per year, the enhanced toll policy leads to revenue growth of 6 percent per year.
Again, this is attributable to higher toll rates during the shoulder and off -peak hours under the
enhanced toll policy. The average toll rate in 2035 under the OCTA toll policy is $2.42 with total
annual transactions of 14.6M and total revenue of $35.5M versus an average toll rate of $3.59
for the enhanced toll policy with total annual transactions of 13.8M and total annual revenue of
$47.4M (2008 $).
A decrease in transactions and revenue occurs in 2035 with the completion of the “Ultimate”
project, which adds general purpose lane capacity to the corridor.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.9
Table 8-3
Traffic and Revenue Estimates, OCTA Toll Policy
Fiscal Year Weekday Toll
Transactions
Weekday
Express
Transactions
Express
Market Share
Weekday
Revenue 08$'s
Average Toll
(2008$'s)
Annual Toll
Transactions
Annual
Revenue 08$'s
Annual
Revenue
(Nominal $'s)
2017 9,100 11,600 4%$2,705 $2.09 404,497 $844,462 $1,101,886
2018 13,050 16,600 6%$29,038 $2.12 5,335,303 $11,326,038 $15,012,114
2019 20,450 25,850 9%$46,785 $2.20 6,652,550 $14,610,500 $19,984,000
2020 26,000 32,800 11%$61,226 $2.24 8,483,050 $19,016,500 $26,754,500
2021 28,600 36,050 12%$68,410 $2.26 9,362,900 $21,206,000 $30,698,000
2022 29,600 37,150 12%$71,040 $2.28 9,692,400 $22,132,000 $32,999,500
2023 30,600 38,250 13%$73,686 $2.30 10,033,500 $23,099,000 $35,474,500
2024 31,650 39,400 13%$76,469 $2.32 10,386,600 $24,108,000 $38,135,000
2025 32,750 40,600 13%$79,392 $2.34 10,752,100 $25,160,500 $40,994,000
2026 33,850 41,750 13%$82,334 $2.36 11,130,450 $26,259,500 $44,068,000
2027 35,000 42,950 13%$85,416 $2.38 11,522,100 $27,406,500 $47,372,500
2028 36,200 44,250 14%$88,641 $2.40 11,927,550 $28,603,500 $50,925,000
2029 37,450 45,600 14%$92,009 $2.42 12,347,300 $29,853,000 $54,744,000
2030 38,750 47,000 14%$95,522 $2.44 12,781,800 $31,156,500 $58,848,000
2031 40,050 48,400 14%$99,057 $2.46 13,231,550 $32,517,000 $63,260,500
2032 41,400 49,850 15%$102,739 $2.48 13,697,100 $33,937,000 $68,004,000
2033 42,800 51,350 15%$106,569 $2.50 14,179,050 $35,419,000 $73,103,000
2034 44,250 52,900 15%$110,549 $2.52 14,678,000 $36,966,000 $78,584,500
2035 44,250 52,750 15%$106,904 $2.43 14,646,400 $35,541,500 $77,726,500
2036 43,750 52,050 15%$102,909 $2.34 14,451,100 $33,836,000 $76,304,000
2037 44,250 52,600 15%$106,379 $2.38 14,632,400 $34,870,000 $80,995,000
2038 44,750 53,150 16%$109,952 $2.43 14,815,950 $35,935,500 $85,974,000
2039 45,350 53,800 16%$113,885 $2.48 15,060,700 $37,344,000 $92,035,000
2040 45,950 54,450 16%$117,932 $2.53 15,303,100 $38,766,500 $98,394,000
2041 46,450 55,000 16%$121,842 $2.58 15,484,150 $39,891,500 $104,287,000
2042 46,950 55,550 16%$125,867 $2.62 15,667,300 $41,049,000 $110,532,500
2043 47,450 56,050 16%$130,010 $2.66 15,852,600 $42,240,000 $117,151,500
2044 47,950 56,600 16%$134,275 $2.71 16,040,100 $43,465,500 $124,166,500
2045 48,450 57,150 16%$138,664 $2.76 16,229,850 $44,726,500 $131,602,000
2046 48,950 57,650 16%$143,182 $2.80 16,421,850 $46,024,000 $139,482,500
2047 49,450 58,150 16%$147,832 $2.85 16,616,100 $47,359,500 $147,835,500
2048 49,950 58,700 16%$152,617 $2.90 16,812,650 $48,734,000 $156,690,000
2049 50,450 59,250 16%$157,541 $2.95 17,011,550 $50,148,000 $166,073,500
2050 51,000 59,850 16%$162,769 $3.00 17,212,800 $51,603,000 $176,018,500
2051 51,550 60,500 17%$168,091 $3.05 17,409,400 $53,050,500 $186,382,000
2052 52,050 61,050 17%$173,345 $3.10 17,601,250 $54,488,500 $197,177,500
2053 52,550 61,600 17%$178,747 $3.14 17,795,200 $55,965,000 $208,596,500
2054 53,050 62,150 17%$184,300 $3.19 17,991,300 $57,482,000 $220,678,000
2055 53,550 62,700 17%$190,009 $3.25 18,189,600 $59,040,500 $233,461,000
2056 54,050 63,250 17%$195,878 $3.30 18,390,100 $60,640,500 $246,981,500
2057 54,550 63,800 17%$201,911 $3.35 18,592,800 $62,284,000 $261,285,500
2058 55,050 64,350 17%$208,113 $3.40 18,797,700 $63,972,500 $276,420,000
2059 55,550 64,900 17%$214,487 $3.46 19,004,850 $65,706,500 $292,429,500
2060 56,050 65,450 17%$221,038 $3.51 19,214,300 $67,487,500 $309,366,500
2061 56,550 66,000 17%$227,771 $3.57 19,426,050 $69,316,500 $327,283,500
2062 57,050 66,550 17%$234,691 $3.62 19,640,150 $71,195,500 $346,240,000
2063 57,550 67,100 17%$241,803 $3.68 19,856,600 $73,125,500 $366,294,500
2064 58,100 67,700 17%$249,329 $3.74 20,075,400 $75,107,000 $387,507,000
2065 58,800 68,400 17%$257,725 $3.80 20,296,700 $77,143,000 $409,952,000
2066 59,500 69,150 18%$266,356 $3.86 20,520,450 $79,234,500 $433,698,500
2067 60,100 69,800 18%$274,787 $3.92 20,746,600 $81,382,000 $458,817,000
2068 q1 60,700 70,450 18%$283,456 $3.99 5,243,813 $20,897,000 $121,347,875
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Tolled Traffic and Revenue Estimates
May 9, 2012
8.10
Table 8-4
Traffic and Revenue Estimates, Enhanced Toll Policy
Fiscal Year Weekday Toll
Transactions
Weekday
Express
Transactions
Express
Market Share
Weekday
Revenue 08$'s
Average Toll
(2008$'s)
Annual Toll
Transactions
Annual
Revenue 08$'s
Annual
Revenue
(Nominal $'s)
2017 9,100 11,600 4%$2,705 $2.09 404,497 $844,462 $1,101,886
2018 13,050 16,600 6%$29,038 $2.12 5,335,303 $11,326,038 $15,012,114
2019 20,450 25,850 9%$46,785 $2.20 6,652,550 $14,610,500 $19,984,000
2020 26,000 32,800 11%$61,226 $2.24 8,483,050 $19,016,500 $26,754,500
2021 28,500 35,950 12%$69,097 $2.29 9,343,100 $21,421,000 $31,013,500
2022 29,350 36,900 12%$73,309 $2.37 9,631,700 $22,799,500 $33,999,500
2023 30,250 37,900 12%$77,838 $2.44 9,929,200 $24,266,500 $37,273,000
2024 31,150 38,900 13%$82,574 $2.52 10,235,850 $25,828,000 $40,861,500
2025 32,100 39,950 13%$87,664 $2.61 10,552,000 $27,490,000 $44,795,500
2026 33,100 41,000 13%$93,124 $2.69 10,877,950 $29,259,500 $49,109,500
2027 34,100 42,050 13%$98,834 $2.78 11,213,950 $31,142,500 $53,838,000
2028 35,100 43,150 13%$104,805 $2.87 11,560,300 $33,146,500 $59,021,500
2029 36,150 44,300 14%$111,201 $2.96 11,917,350 $35,279,500 $64,704,500
2030 37,250 45,500 14%$118,045 $3.06 12,285,450 $37,550,000 $70,934,500
2031 38,350 46,700 14%$125,200 $3.16 12,664,900 $39,966,500 $77,764,000
2032 39,500 47,950 14%$132,851 $3.26 13,056,050 $42,538,000 $85,250,500
2033 40,700 49,250 14%$141,020 $3.36 13,459,300 $45,275,500 $93,459,000
2034 41,900 50,550 15%$149,562 $3.47 13,875,000 $48,189,000 $102,457,500
2035 41,800 50,300 15%$150,064 $3.43 13,833,500 $47,423,000 $103,732,500
2036 41,300 49,600 15%$148,003 $3.35 13,660,100 $45,762,000 $103,195,500
2037 41,700 50,050 15%$151,646 $3.40 13,819,250 $46,992,500 $109,149,500
2038 42,100 50,500 15%$155,365 $3.45 13,980,250 $48,256,500 $115,448,000
2039 42,700 51,150 15%$159,744 $3.53 14,192,600 $50,031,500 $123,302,500
2040 43,300 51,800 15%$164,224 $3.60 14,402,850 $51,809,000 $131,493,500
2041 43,700 52,250 15%$168,224 $3.65 14,561,450 $53,111,500 $138,843,500
2042 44,100 52,700 15%$172,307 $3.70 14,721,800 $54,446,500 $146,603,500
2043 44,500 53,100 15%$176,474 $3.75 14,883,900 $55,815,000 $154,797,000
2044 44,900 53,550 15%$180,728 $3.80 15,047,800 $57,218,000 $163,448,500
2045 45,300 54,000 15%$185,070 $3.86 15,213,500 $58,656,500 $172,584,500
2046 45,700 54,400 15%$189,501 $3.91 15,381,050 $60,131,000 $182,231,000
2047 46,100 54,800 15%$194,023 $3.96 15,550,450 $61,642,500 $192,416,000
2048 46,550 55,300 15%$198,854 $4.02 15,721,700 $63,192,500 $203,171,500
2049 47,050 55,850 15%$204,001 $4.08 15,894,850 $64,781,000 $214,527,000
2050 47,650 56,500 16%$209,701 $4.13 16,069,950 $66,409,500 $226,517,500
2051 48,200 57,150 16%$215,464 $4.19 16,241,200 $68,069,000 $239,142,500
2052 48,600 57,600 16%$220,850 $4.25 16,408,450 $69,759,500 $252,434,500
2053 49,000 58,050 16%$226,356 $4.31 16,577,400 $71,492,000 $266,465,000
2054 49,400 58,500 16%$231,984 $4.37 16,748,100 $73,268,000 $281,277,000
2055 49,800 58,950 16%$237,736 $4.44 16,920,550 $75,087,500 $296,910,000
2056 50,200 59,400 16%$243,614 $4.50 17,094,750 $76,952,000 $313,411,000
2057 50,600 59,850 16%$249,623 $4.57 17,270,750 $78,863,500 $330,832,000
2058 51,000 60,300 16%$255,763 $4.63 17,448,600 $80,822,500 $349,221,500
2059 51,400 60,750 16%$262,039 $4.70 17,628,300 $82,830,000 $368,632,500
2060 51,800 61,200 16%$268,452 $4.77 17,809,850 $84,887,000 $389,120,500
2061 52,200 61,650 16%$275,006 $4.83 17,993,250 $86,995,000 $410,747,000
2062 52,650 62,150 16%$281,973 $4.90 18,178,500 $89,155,500 $433,576,500
2063 53,150 62,700 16%$289,366 $4.98 18,365,700 $91,370,000 $457,676,500
2064 53,650 63,250 16%$296,926 $5.05 18,554,850 $93,639,500 $483,116,000
2065 54,250 63,850 16%$305,224 $5.12 18,745,950 $95,965,500 $509,970,000
2066 54,850 64,500 16%$313,706 $5.19 18,939,000 $98,349,500 $538,317,500
2067 55,350 65,050 16%$321,809 $5.27 19,134,000 $100,792,000 $568,237,000
2068 q1 55,850 65,600 16%$330,095 $5.34 4,832,750 $25,823,750 $149,954,750
RIVERSIDE COUNTY 91
9.1
9.0 Sensitivity Analyses
9.1 REVENUE MAXIMIZATION
The theory of toll pricing relates to the traditional supply-demand relationships seen elsewhere
in economic literature. As prices rise, demand drops. At the critical price point, demand
produces a maximum amount of potential revenue.
As shown in this example, traffic declines as prices rise in a continuous albeit non-linear fashion.
Figure 9-1
Traffic’s Response to Toll Increases
In this example, a toll rise from $0.25 to $0.50 produces a 20% decline in traffic demand.
At various points along this curve, the traffic multiplied times the toll rate produces the revenue
for the policy.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $2.00
Traffic
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Sensitivity Analyses
May 9, 2012
9.2
Figure 9-2
Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves
In this example, $0.25 *100= $25, $1.00 *72= $72 and $2.00 *46= $92.
At low end of the curve, revenue increases at nearly linear rates with increased toll rates
Figure 9-3
Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$0
.
2
5
$0
.
5
0
$0
.
7
5
$1
.
0
0
$1
.
2
5
$1
.
5
0
$1
.
7
5
$2
.
0
0
$2
.
2
5
$2
.
5
0
$2
.
7
5
$3
.
0
0
$3
.
2
5
$3
.
5
0
$3
.
7
5
Traffic
Revenue
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Traffic
Revenue
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Sensitivity Analyses
May 9, 2012
9.3
As rates increase, revenue increases begin to slow.
Figure 9-4
Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves
As rates approach optimal, revenue increases are nearly zero, and the curve become flat .
Figure 9-5
Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves
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Traffic
Revenue
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Sensitivity Analyses
May 9, 2012
9.4
As rates go beyond optimal, revenues decline.
Figure 9-6
Typical Traffic vs. Revenue Curves
From a planning perspective, one may ask, Where is the Optimal point on the revenue curve?
• A: Point of highest revenue, the maximum revenue point, or
• B: Optimal Toll, appoint slightly below the highest point which reflects the
nature of the forecasting process and provides a “cushion” in the forecast.
We have applied this concept to the RCTC SR 91 Express lane project to create a revenue
maximization toll policy.
The revenue maximization toll policy has a similar pattern for traffic growth, with global
corridor traffic growing by slightly more than 1 percent until 2035, when traffic growth slows to
approximately 0.5 percent per year. Express Lane transactions grow by approximately 3
percent per year
Revenues grow at about 6 percent per year until 2035 and 2 percent per year after 2035. The
average toll rate in 2035 under the revenue maximization toll policy is $7.09 with total annual
transactions of 11.5M and total revenue of $81.5M (2008 $).
A decrease in transactions and revenue occurs in 2035 with the completion of the “Ultimate”
project, which adds general purpose lane capacity to the corridor.
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Traffic
Revenue
RIVERSIDE COUNTY SR-91
Sensitivity Analyses
May 9, 2012
9.5
Table 9-1
Traffic and Revenue Estimates, Revenue Maximization Toll Policy
Fiscal Year Weekday Toll
Transactions
Weekday
Express
Transactions
Express
Market Share
Weekday
Revenue 08$'s
Average Toll
(2008$'s)
Annual Toll
Transactions
Annual
Revenue 08$'s
Annual
Revenue
(Nominal $'s)
2017 7,400 9,900 3%$4,950 $4.43 328,768 $1,457,514 $1,901,674
2018 10,600 14,150 5%$52,877 $4.50 4,338,732 $19,535,986 $25,892,826
2019 16,600 22,050 8%$84,667 $4.65 5,415,850 $25,169,000 $34,425,000
2020 21,250 28,100 10%$110,062 $4.74 6,903,650 $32,741,000 $46,063,000
2021 23,500 30,950 10%$123,778 $4.85 7,602,550 $36,855,500 $53,359,500
2022 24,300 31,850 11%$131,071 $4.99 7,845,500 $39,179,500 $58,426,000
2023 25,100 32,750 11%$138,644 $5.14 8,096,250 $41,650,000 $63,973,500
2024 25,950 33,700 11%$146,791 $5.30 8,355,000 $44,276,500 $70,048,000
2025 26,850 34,700 11%$155,536 $5.46 8,622,000 $47,068,500 $76,699,000
2026 27,750 35,650 11%$164,617 $5.62 8,897,550 $50,036,500 $83,981,500
2027 28,650 36,600 11%$174,045 $5.79 9,181,900 $53,191,500 $91,955,000
2028 29,600 37,650 12%$184,146 $5.97 9,475,300 $56,545,500 $100,685,500
2029 30,600 38,750 12%$194,948 $6.15 9,778,100 $60,111,000 $110,245,500
2030 31,600 39,850 12%$206,162 $6.33 10,090,600 $63,901,500 $120,713,500
2031 32,650 41,000 12%$218,142 $6.52 10,413,050 $67,931,000 $132,175,000
2032 33,750 42,200 12%$230,916 $6.72 10,745,800 $72,214,000 $144,724,000
2033 34,850 43,400 13%$244,179 $6.92 11,089,200 $76,767,500 $158,465,000
2034 36,000 44,650 13%$258,310 $7.13 11,443,600 $81,608,500 $173,511,500
2035 36,500 45,000 13%$258,743 $7.08 11,506,800 $81,495,500 $178,304,500
2036 36,450 44,750 13%$253,939 $6.97 11,435,300 $79,739,000 $179,808,500
2037 36,550 44,900 13%$258,254 $7.07 11,526,250 $81,459,000 $189,197,500
2038 36,650 45,050 13%$262,639 $7.16 11,617,900 $83,216,000 $199,076,500
2039 36,900 45,350 13%$268,674 $7.28 11,753,750 $85,519,500 $210,743,000
2040 37,150 45,650 13%$274,761 $7.39 11,886,700 $87,825,500 $222,897,500
2041 37,250 45,800 13%$279,325 $7.49 11,973,200 $89,624,000 $234,286,000
2042 37,350 45,950 13%$283,963 $7.58 12,060,350 $91,459,000 $246,255,500
2043 37,450 46,050 13%$288,676 $7.68 12,148,150 $93,332,000 $258,837,500
2044 37,550 46,200 13%$293,466 $7.78 12,236,550 $95,243,000 $272,061,500
2045 37,650 46,350 13%$298,332 $7.89 12,325,600 $97,193,000 $285,961,000
2046 37,750 46,450 13%$303,278 $7.99 12,415,300 $99,183,500 $300,571,500
2047 37,850 46,550 13%$308,302 $8.09 12,505,650 $101,214,500 $315,928,000
2048 37,950 46,700 13%$313,409 $8.20 12,596,650 $103,286,500 $332,067,500
2049 38,050 46,850 13%$318,597 $8.31 12,688,300 $105,401,500 $349,033,000
2050 38,400 47,250 13%$326,006 $8.42 12,780,650 $107,560,000 $366,866,500
2051 38,900 47,850 13%$333,881 $8.51 12,900,200 $109,736,500 $385,517,500
2052 39,300 48,300 13%$340,083 $8.58 13,047,450 $111,931,000 $405,023,500
2053 39,700 48,750 13%$346,364 $8.65 13,196,400 $114,169,500 $425,517,500
2054 40,100 49,200 13%$352,726 $8.72 13,347,050 $116,453,000 $447,049,500
2055 40,500 49,650 13%$359,168 $8.80 13,499,400 $118,782,000 $469,670,000
2056 40,900 50,100 13%$365,693 $8.87 13,653,500 $121,158,000 $493,436,500
2057 41,300 50,550 13%$372,300 $8.95 13,809,400 $123,582,000 $518,408,000
2058 41,700 51,000 13%$378,992 $9.03 13,967,050 $126,053,500 $544,639,000
2059 42,100 51,450 14%$385,768 $9.10 14,126,500 $128,574,500 $572,197,500
2060 42,500 51,900 14%$392,629 $9.18 14,287,800 $131,146,500 $601,153,000
2061 42,900 52,350 14%$399,578 $9.26 14,450,900 $133,769,500 $631,571,500
2062 43,300 52,800 14%$406,614 $9.34 14,615,850 $136,445,000 $663,529,500
2063 43,700 53,250 14%$413,739 $9.41 14,782,700 $139,174,000 $697,104,500
2064 44,100 53,700 14%$420,953 $9.49 14,951,450 $141,957,500 $732,378,000
2065 44,400 54,000 14%$427,291 $9.58 15,122,150 $144,797,000 $769,438,500
2066 44,700 54,350 14%$433,713 $9.66 15,294,800 $147,693,500 $808,375,000
2067 45,100 54,800 14%$441,186 $9.74 15,469,400 $150,647,500 $849,279,500
2068 q1 45,500 55,250 14%$448,753 $9.82 3,911,500 $38,415,125 $223,063,375
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
Adopted Toll Policy for Riverside County Transportation
Commission 91 Express Lanes
PowerPoint
RCTC 91 Express Lanes Toll Policy
for the
State Route 91 Advisory Committee
August 3rd, 2012
Why is this important?
Why now?
Toll policy includes establishing toll rates:
Basis for traffic and revenue (T and R) study
Toll revenue projection:
Key ingredient of the Commission’s financial plan
Financially feasible project:
Successful TIFIA application and bond sales
Independent Toll Policy
Shared with OCTA
•Operator contract and major vendors
•Marketing and customer service
•Customer account revenues
•O and M costs
•Traffic operations and customer service
centers
Exclusive to RCTC
•Project financings
•Right to collect and retain tolls
•RIGHT TO SET TOLL POLICY
Shared Goals
Corridor
Efficiency
Customer
commute
Optimize vehicle
throughput
Future corridor
improvements
Financial
Commitments
Meet debt
obligations
Sustain financial
viability
Meet bond
covenants
Lane Access
Vehicle
occupancy
Balance payers
and carpoolers
Basic Elements
Variable
pricing
•Time of day and day of week pricing based on actual congestion levels
•Hourly price changes published on web page, corridor signs, and other
locations
Formula-
driven
•Prices automatically adjusted quarterly based on pre-defined formula
•Toll rates go up and down based on market demand experienced over
prior 12-week period
Rates
•Rates are not subsidized by the Commission, users pay full fare
•HOV 3+ ride free during most periods
Three Toll
Policies Analyzed
•Exact match to current OCTA policy
Existing OCTA Policy
(base case)
•Based on OCTA toll policy, same rates during peak periods
•Higher toll rates during off-peak, based on traffic volumes
•Better matches pricing to meet demand
Enhanced Policy
(proposed
Commission policy)
•Toll rates set to maximize revenue
•Analyzed as a financial sensitivity case to support financing
•Serves as contingency for capital markets
Revenue
Maximization Policy
(sensitivity case)
OCTA Toll Policy
Tolls vs. Express Lanes
Traffic - 2000
Tolls vs. Express Lanes
Traffic - 2010
3,128 vehicles
91 Express Lanes
Traffic Growth
Off-Peak Rates Over Time
Enhanced Toll Policy
OCTA Tolls vs. Express
Lanes Traffic
3,128 vehicles
2,800 vehicles
2,400 vehicles
1,600 vehicles
800 vehicles
OCTA vs. Enhanced
Time Sun Mon - Thurs Fri Sat
12:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
1:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
2:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
3:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
4:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
5:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
6:00 AM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.10
7:00 AM $1.10 $1.70 $1.70 $1.10
8:00 AM $1.10 $1.70 $1.70 $1.70
9:00 AM $1.10 $1.70 $1.10 $1.70
10:00 AM $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $2.50
11:00 AM $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $2.50
12:00 PM $2.50 $1.70 $2.50 $2.50
1:00 PM $2.50 $2.50 $3.35 $2.50
2:00 PM $2.50 $4.20 $4.90 $3.35
3:00 PM $2.50 $5.55 $7.15 $3.35
4:00 PM $2.50 $7.15 $7.15 $4.20
5:00 PM $2.50 $7.15 $8.10 $4.20
6:00 PM $2.50 $7.15 $8.10 $3.35
7:00 PM $2.50 $5.55 $5.55 $2.50
8:00 PM $2.50 $2.50 $4.90 $1.70
9:00 PM $1.70 $1.70 $3.35 $1.70
10:00 PM $1.10 $1.10 $1.70 $1.70
11:00 PM $1.10 $1.10 $1.10 $1.70
OCTA Policy – 2035 EB Rates Enhanced Policy – 2035 EB Rates
OCTA vs. Enhanced
Annual Toll Transactions
Annual Revenue
Toll Policy Revenues
RCTC Proposed
Toll Policy
Meets Goals
•Customer focused
•Optimizes corridor
performance
•Financial obligations
•Balances competing goals
Consistent with existing
system
•Congestion pricing
•Basis for rate changes
•Lanes access and discounts
•Meets customer expectations
Questions?
Michael Blomquist, PE
Toll Program Director
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
State Route 91 Widening Project Update
PowerPoint
Building A Better 91
Westbound
Lane Addition Project
Eastbound Lane
Addition Project
Westbound and Eastbound
Lane Widening Project
Under Construction Finished Late 2012/Early 2013
2
Project Improvements
•New 6 mile Westbound and
Eastbound (EB) lane
•Add second EB exit lane
•Widen 5 bridges
•Reconstruct 15 ramps
•New striping, standardized
•Signage, lighting, barriers
•1 ½ mile soundwall
•Bioswale and landscaping
3
Cost and Funding
Planning/Environmental: $4.3M
Engineering: $8.1M
Construction and $61.9M
Construction Management
Total Estimated Cost: $74.3M
Funding Sources:
StateTransportation Improvement Program
and Corridor Mobility Improvement Account
4
Lane Paving
Bridge Widening
Ramp Reconstruction
Focus of Presentation
BEHIND THE
K-RAIL
5
Lane Paving
•Paving 12 lane miles
•12 feet wide
•Portland Cement Concrete
•25 – 30 year life span
•Concrete asphalt shoulders
•New striping throughout limits
6
Excavation and Utility Relocation
7
Gantry Removal
8
Gantry Installation
9
Temporary Power and Grading
10
Nighttime Concrete Pours
11
Curing
12
Crews at Work
13
Coming into Full View
14
Ramp Work
•Reconstruction and realignment
•15 on- and off-ramps
•5 higher volume ramps
•10 lower volume ramps
•Staged work and full closures
•Max safety, productivity, and access
15
Lakeview Avenue Ramps
16
Imperial Highway Ramps
17
Yorba Linda Boulevard/Weir Canyon
Road Ramps
18
Loop Ramps
19
Tangent Ramps
20
On-Ramps
21
Lakeview Off-Ramp – Substantially Completed
22
Widening Bridges
•Lakeview Avenue undercrossing
•Imperial Highway overcrossings
•Yorba Linda Boulevard/Weir
Canyon Road overcrossings
•Pile driving, columns, abutments,
and concrete pours
•Nighttime work
23
Bridge Demo
24
Bridge Columns
25
Bridge Abutments
26
Formed Abutments
27
Pile Driving
Pile Driving Complete
28
Spanning Streets
29
The Road Ahead
Lakeview Avenue Undercrossing
Imperial Highway Lowering
Falsework and Ramp Tie-in
30
Soundwall
31
Soundwall Trenching
32
Rebar and Form Work
33
Soundwall Footings
34
Building Blocks
35
Substantially Complete
36
Bioswale and Landscaping
Note: Computer rendering by Caltrans 37
The Road Ahead
Bridge Gaps
Clearing, Grubbing, and Grading
Install Doors, Access Points
38
Traffic Management
•Electronic signs
•Clearly marked detours
•Traffic signal and lane adjustments
•California Highway Patrol, Police, and Freeway
Service Patrol
Plan Ahead and Anticipate Backup
39
Public Outreach
•Proactive communication
•100% response to inquiries
•Communicate with target stakeholders/audiences
–First responders
–Motorists, residents, Home Owner Associations
–Businesses
–Schools, civic groups, churches, etc.
40
Online and Social Media
41
Canvassing, Email, and Direct Mail
42
Radio, Newsletters, Local Partners
43
Business and Stakeholder Outreach
44
Get Connected, Stay Informed
Gloria Roberts
Office Chief, Public Information
(949) 724-2695
gloria_roberts@dot.ca.gov
Fernando Chavarria
Project Outreach Manager
(714) 560-5306
fchavarria@octa.net
www.octa.net/better91 (800) 724-0353 @91fwy Caltrans
SR91 Project
goOCTA
Get Connected, Stay Informed!
45