HomeMy Public PortalAboutTown Plan Update Market Analysis
The Town of Leesburg
Planning and Zoning
To: Planning Commission
From: Susan Berry Hill, AICP, Director, Department of Planning and Zoning
Scott E. Parker, AICP, Senior Planning Project Manager
Richard Klusek, AICP, Senior Planner
Date: January 16, 2020
Subject: Town Plan Update
________________________________________________________________________
The Town Plan was last comprehensively updated in 2012. In 2018, the Town Council
directed Town staff and the Planning Commission to conduct an update of the Town
Plan, and appropriated money to hire a consultant to assist with the project. Since
engaging the services of a consultant, the Town Plan update process has been underway,
and current information related to the project is provided herein. Specifically, public
outreach efforts and a market assessment that was conducted.
Process
Work began on the creation of the new Town Plan on July 2, 2019 when staff engaged
the services of Stantec Architecture, Inc., through the signing of the final contract on May
28, 2019. Stantec has partnered with several sub-contractors to complete the project
including City Explained, Inc. and W-ZHA, Inc.
Public input and public engagement have been at the forefront of the efforts to date, and
has been serving as a cornerstone from the outset. The Town Plan is a document to guide
the Town into the future, and it is eminently important to hear from as many voices as
possible in order to guide the formation of the document, reach adoption, and implement
the vision. During this public outreach phase, additional work on the plan has been done
as well, including a market research analysis report that will be discussed later in this
report.
At this point in the process, numerous outreach efforts have been undertaken as
referenced below. A significant number of residents, businesses, property owners,
students, and other various stakeholders have participated. A website dedicated solely to
the project (legacy_leesburgva.gov) was developed and implemented and is the portal for
communication, documents, and news related to the project.
Town Plan Update
January 16, 2020
Page 2
Focus Group
As part of their program to help generate interest and participation in the process, the
consultant initiated the creation a Project Focus Group. The Project Focus Group (which
is not a policy or decision-making body) is a group established to encourage participation
and public engagement throughout the life of the project. Its other function is to provide
input to staff and the consultants as requested on any emerging issues that may arise
during the process. The Project Focus Group is made up of a diverse group of individuals
from diverse geographic areas of the Town, in order to foster inclusion at all levels.
The group that has been established represents divergent and diverse interests and points
of view (business, residential, etc.) from various geographic areas of the Town. The
Project Focus Group has met three times to date, and is in communication with staff on a
regular basis. Their role is to encourage participation, enthusiasm, and engagement for
the various phases of the project.
Legacy Leesburg and Website
With the input of the consultant, Town staff, and the Project Focus Group, Legacy
Leesburg is the name given to the new Town Plan process and to the new Plan document
once it is developed. It will be found on all materials associated with the project.
A new website for the project was created, and was launched on Monday, September 9,
2019. This site, which was created by Engagement HQ as part of the consultant contract,
is the central repository and focus for all things Legacy Leesburg. The address for the site
can be accessed through the Town’s website homepage as well as through the Planning
and Zoning page of the Town’s main site, and can be found at:
legacy.leesburgva.gov
Outreach
As stated above, public outreach has been a prime focus of the Plan’s earliest
development process. Below are the outreach efforts as of November, 2019, with
numbers of participants for each, as applicable:
• Stakeholder Interviews 17*
• Project Focus Group Meetings 3
• On-the-Table Participants 200**
• Project website views 2,447
• Community Ideas Exchange participants 82
• Online surveys 39
• Design Charrette visitors 36
• Facebook Live views 2,618
• Facebook Comments 84
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January 16, 2020
Page 3
• Pop up interviews 75
• Door to door interviews 56
* Stakeholder interviews included businesses, property owners, developers, elected and appointed officials,
interest groups, such as PEC and Bike Loudoun, and some residents
**On-the-Table were mostly private events of multiple people to garner input in a casual setting
***The Community Idea Exchange was a public participation event at Ida Lee in September, 2019
When the Design Charrette concluded in November 2019, there had been over 5,606
“touch points” by the public on the Town Plan effort. As the project moves into the next
phase of crafting the draft document and guiding principles, it is anticipated, and
expected, that these numbers will go higher. With the creation of the draft document,
many more opportunities for public input will be part of the process.
Events
Stakeholder Interviews
On July 30, 2019 and again on August 19 and 20, 2019, the project team met with 17
stakeholders, including long-time residents, business owners, the development
community, transportation experts, economic development experts, elected officials, and
various Town staff. The interviews allowed the project team to listen, learn, and get to
know Leesburg. During this time, team members were also able to tour the community to
get a sense of existing conditions and possible issues.
Community Ideas Exchange Workshop
The Town hosted a Community Ideas Exchange Workshop at the Ida Lee Recreation
Center on Wednesday, October 2, 2019. The workshop gave the community an
opportunity to learn about the Town Plan process and to offer insights to the project team.
Approximately 80 participants attended the hands-on, interactive event to share their
thoughts, feelings, and opinions about the future of the Town.
In order to accommodate different schedules, there were two drop-in events—one in the
afternoon and one in the evening. Upon arrival, participants attended a brief introductory
presentation before moving on to various hands-on activities. Stations around the room
focused on green space, land use, transportation, community design, economic
development, and future growth in the Town. Participants took multiple surveys and
played a “block game” allowing them to show preferences on development types,
patterns, locations, and densities.
Workshop attendees expressed concern about future development in Leesburg;
specifically, that additional growth will lead to increased traffic congestion, decreased
green/open space, and a loss of the “small-town charm” that makes Leesburg special.
Two additional recurring themes throughout the workshop were walkability and public
transportation. It was noted that many places in Leesburg are walkable now, but it should
Town Plan Update
January 16, 2020
Page 4
be even more walkable in the future. It was also noted that existing public transportation
is inadequate.
Online Activity
Prior to the workshop, the Town posted questions on Facebook to generate interest in the
event. The community was asked to weigh in on the future of brick and mortar stores, the
ability to both live and work in Leesburg, and the affordability of homes. Of the three
questions, the affordability issue generated the most conversation. Many expressed
concerns that Leesburg is now unaffordable and is getting worse. Young people and
retirees, in particular, seem unable to move to or remain in the Town. Some people who
work in Leesburg commute an hour or more (some from West Virginia) because they
can’t afford to live in town.
Legacy Leesburg Activities
For those who could not attend the workshop, the Legacy Leesburg web site had similar
activities and provided multiple chances to offer feedback. Sentiments expressed online
were similar to those at the workshop. People love Leesburg and are concerned that
continued growth will have negative impacts on the Town. They want to keep the small-
town feel, they love the open space, and they don’t want traffic to get any worse than it
already is.
On the Table
During the month of October, members of the community were encouraged to host their
own discussions about Leesburg. Conversations could take place anywhere: a coffee
shop, a bike store, a backyard, or a living room. Thirteen groups took part in an “On the
Table” discussion. In addition, Town staff and a Focus Group member visited Loudoun
County High School, and another group went door-to-door asking questions about
Leesburg. By the end of the month, close to 200 people had taken part in these types of
discussions. People commented on the Town’s historic character, the small-town charm,
the sense of community, and the vibrant downtown. They love that Leesburg is walkable
and that there's plenty of access to green space.
People also shared concerns about the Town. A significant number of respondents cited
their dislike of the traffic, and they are concerned that continued development will have a
negative impact on all of those things that they love about Leesburg (AND make traffic
worse). Young people, in particular, are concerned about the loss of green space,
homelessness, and maintenance of character for the future. Everyone wants to keep the
small-town feel.
Town Plan Update
January 16, 2020
Page 5
Five-Day Design Charrette
The Community Design Charrette took place from November 7 to 11, 2019, at the Ida
Lee Recreation Center. A multidisciplinary team of consultants representing community
planning, transportation, market analysis and urban design was assembled for the event to
work with staff and listen to the public.
The process kicked off on the first night with an opening presentation to the Planning
Commission. The following days were filled with “Deep Dive” sessions on land use,
community character, transportation, quality of life, parks and recreation, housing
choices, and economic vitality. Each of these sessions was attended by members of the
public, as well as regional and local experts in their fields. Members of the public were
also able to drop in at any time to have one-on-one discussions.
On Friday night and Saturday morning, members of the team went out to the public to
ask three brief questions:
1. What makes Leesburg special to you? Why did you choose Leesburg over any
other place?
2. What concerns you most about the future of Leesburg as it continues to grow and
develop?
3. Is there anything missing in Town that you would like to see in the future?
The team spoke with more than 75 people in four locations (downtown, Ida Lee, the
farmers market at Virginia Village, and a storefront at the Village at Leesburg). The
answers were, again, very similar. It seems very clear that people love Leesburg. The
overwhelming top responses to the three questions were:
1. Small-town charm, great downtown, green space, sense of community, things to
do.
2. Potential loss of all of the above plus more traffic.
3. Cultural events, performing arts center, more art were all needed
Back in the studio at Ida Lee, team members began synthesizing ideas from the
community workshop, pop-ups, and other public outreach. Through collaboration
amongst the team, discussion began on design challenges, renderings were prepared;
images were compiled, and drafting of big ideas for the Town Plan began.
On November 12, there was a final public presentation and explanation of all work
produced during the week. This was followed by a report to Town Council. The final
presentation was recorded and is available on the Legacy Leesburg website.
Town Plan Update
January 16, 2020
Page 6
What we heard
Throughout the public process to date, regardless of the spontaneity of responses (such as
Facebook) or answers to specific questions (such as the pop up interviews) input trends
emerged and rose to the top. Although there are no “percentages” of participants ascribed
to the various themes, the topics were not listed below unless multiple thematic answers
were given.
Below is an amalgam of what we heard:
What’s Great about Leesburg?
• Vibrant Downtown
• Town character
• Small-town charm
• Walkability
• Mom & Pop Stores
• Open space
• Feeling of community
• Community events (First Friday)
• Historic character
• Access to parks
• Diverse community
Concerns
• Traffic, Traffic, Traffic
• Continued development will lead to:
o More traffic
o Loss of open space
o Loss of small-town charm
o Loss of character
o Too many people
• Housing is no longer affordable (and it’s getting worse)
o Long-time residents are being pushed out
o No place to “age in place”
o Young people can’t afford to live here
o Service workers, teachers, etc., can’t afford to live here
o Rents are high
What’s needed?
• Performing Arts Center
• More transit options (including a bus to park & ride lots)
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January 16, 2020
Page 7
• Affordable housing
• Increased walkability for all areas (not just downtown)
• Parking solution downtown
• Increased tree canopy
• More mom & pop stores
• More bike lanes (and general bike safety)
• Make Leesburg distinguishable from surrounding towns
• Better wayfinding
• Address the Noise Ordinance in some way
• More focus on Arts
Market Assessment
Another key piece of the background information that should be considered in developing
plan policy is real estate market conditions. The consultant team, in collaboration with
Town staff developed a Market Assessment to demonstrate where the Town of Leesburg
stands in terms of market demand for a variety of potential uses. The Market Assessment
is included as Attachment 1. The conclusions tell a clear story that is summarized below.
A key takeaway from this analysis is that there is more market demand in Leesburg than
there is supply for a significant number of key uses.
In terms of residential development, there is demand for up to 9,950 new residential
units, although it should be noted that residential development throughout the region is
slowing due to land scarcity and zoning constraints, but market potential does exist. It is
important to note that the Leesburg Planning Area forecast is market-driven only; it does
not take into consideration whether there is sufficient land or zoning to accommodate this
level of growth. However, these units could be absorbed in Leesburg if planning policy
and zoning ordinance changes were made to allow them.
In terms of non-residential development there is also significant demand for retail, office,
and flex uses. There is currently an office vacancy rate of 2.3%. This is a significant
number as it demonstrates a shortage of office space and strong demand. Employment
forecasts show demand for approximately 1 million square feet of office space in
Leesburg. There is also demand for approximately 1.2 million square feet of flex space.
Given this demand, there is expected to be more job growth in the Leesburg area in the
next 20 years than there was in the previous 20 years.
Retail demand is also a significant consideration. The relatively high educational
attainment and household income in Leesburg creates a strong retail demand, particularly
for specialty retailers like art galleries, boutique clothing stores, and gift shops. These
types of tenants function well in a Town Center environment and could be attracted to
Leesburg by the high discretionary incomes. Overall, there is demand for approximately
1 million square feet of retail space.
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January 16, 2020
Page 8
Given this significant market demand, the analysis demonstrates Leesburg’s planning
challenge is not lack of market, but, instead, harnessing growth in a manner that enhances
resident quality of life and creates a strong and sustainable local economy.
Moving Forward
The Town Plan update project is nearing the halfway mark. Now the consultant team is
taking everything they have heard and forming the backbone of the new Town Plan
document. Once this backbone has been established, the Plan will begin to be written and
more input will be solicited.
Joint Work Session
On January 27, the Town Council and the Planning Commission will hold a joint meeting
with the goal of providing feedback to the consultant and staff going forward on some
critical items needed for the formation of the document. These include:
• Planning Context Statement
• Guiding Principles of the document
• Preferred growth scenarios
• Focus Area Concepts
Feedback on these items is essential in order to keep the project moving forward in a
positive direction as we move toward the formation of the draft document.
Next Workshop
After guidance is provided for the direction of the plan as referenced above at the January
27 work session, the consultant will begin forming the basis of the draft document, with a
public workshop and continued public input in the spring of 2020.
Attachments:
1) Market Assessment
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
LEESBURG TOWN PLAN MARKET ASSESSMENT
INTRODUCTION
This Market Assessment was conducted to inform Leesburg’s update of its Town Plan. It quantifies
demand for housing, retail, office, light industrial and hotel from 2020 to 2040. This Market Assessment
has relied on forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (Round 9.1)
and the Market Analysis for Envision Loudoun, Loudoun County’s new comprehensive plan.
SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
Table 1
Leesburg is in a very strong market where, for many land uses, demand is outpacing supply. Leesburg’s
planning challenge is not lack of market, but, instead, harnessing growth in a manner that enhances
resident quality of life and creates a strong and sustainable local economy.
Residential Dwelling Units
Single Family Detached 1,340 2,640
Single Family Attached 2,130 4,620
Multi-Family 1,690 2,690
Total 5,160 9,950
Sq Ft Employment Sq Ft Employment
Office /1 957,300 4,034 1,022,400 4,368
Light Industrial Flex and Data Center /2 1,178,900 1,725 2,087,800 2,438
Hotel 486 Rooms 292 440 Rooms 264
Retail /3 768,900 2,043 1,035,000 2,809
1. The Market-Based forecast was modified upwards due to the Microsoft land purchase at Compass Creek.
3. The Market-Based scenario was modified to take into consideration market leakage and same store productivity growth.
Source: W-ZHA
MWCOG Round 9.1 Based Market-Based
Land Use Forecasts
2. The Market-Based forecast assumes that the Leesburg Planning Area captures 85% of Town and Rural Policy Area's light industrial and data center potential.
Leesburg Planning Area
2020 to 2040
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REGIONAL INFLUENCES ON LOUDOUN COUNTY AND LEESBURG
Washington Metropolitan Area Economy and Growth
The Washington Metro Area is a dynamic region with one of the strongest economies in the nation. The
Metropolitan Area ranks 5th among all United States’ Metros in terms of Gross Metropolitan Product.
While the Federal government still plays an important role in the region’s growth, the Washington
Metro economy continues to diversify. CBRE Research ranks Washington, DC market area #3 in terms of
tech talent behind the San Francisco Bay Area and New York markets.1
The Dulles Technology Corridor
The Dulles Technology Corridor is an area along and between the Dulles Toll Road (VA SR 267) and Route
7 (VA SR 7). There is a concentration of defense, telecom and technology firms here as well as Dulles
International Airport. Dubbed by Atlantic magazine the “Silicon Valley of the East”, the Dulles
Technology Corridor is a major economic development asset.
Dulles Corridor Metrorail – Silver Line Extension Phase II
The Washington Metro System’s Silver Line Extension Phase II extends Metro from Reston, VA in Fairfax
County to Loudoun County. Scheduled to be completed in 2020, the Extension will include two stations
in Loudoun County. Much of Loudoun County’s future growth and development is projected to occur in
and around these Metro stations in the eastern part of the county.
Washington Region’s Exurban Growth Trends
Figure 1
Change in Occupied Housing Units
Urban, Suburban and Exurban Washington Region
2000 - 2017
Source: The George Washington University Center for Washington Area
Studies, “State of the Capital Region, 2019”, American Community Survey; W-ZHA
1 CBRE Research, “2018 Scoring Tech Talent”.
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Figure 1 illustrates how the housing market has accommodated regional growth. Since 2000, the
Exurban counties have added more housing units than the Urban and Suburban counties combined,
with Loudoun County adding more than any other single jurisdiction. Rapid growth has transformed
what was once Loudoun County’s rural countryside to new residential subdivisions.
Quality of Life and Sustainability
A 2018 National Citizens Survey revealed that 87 percent of Loudoun County residents rated the
County’s quality of life as excellent or good.2 As might be expected with the level of growth experienced
in Loudoun County, affordability and mobility are key challenges facing Loudoun County and the
Leesburg community.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
Fast Growth
Loudoun County’s and Leesburg’s population growth since 2000 has outpaced the Washington
Metropolitan Area. Loudoun County’s population more than doubled over the last 17 years. With
almost 400,000 people in Loudoun County, it is the 2nd largest Exurban County within the Capital Region.
Families Have Driven Household Growth in Leesburg
Family households have driven growth in Loudoun County and Leesburg. Family households account for
over three-quarters of Loudoun County and Leesburg households. Over 40 percent of households in
both Loudoun County and Leesburg have children under the age of 18.
Both Loudoun and Leesburg’s average household size exceeds the United State and Metro average.
Even with a high average household size, half of the households in Leesburg are 1- and 2-person
households.
One Quarter of Leesburg’s Population is Either Hispanic or Asian.
Over 60% of Leesburg’s residents are white and not Hispanic. Approximately 17% of Leesburg’s
population is Hispanic and almost 8% is Asian. Whites that are not Hispanic accounted for two-thirds of
the population growth since 2010. Leesburg experienced growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations
as well.
Leesburg’s Households Are Generally Younger Than National and Metropolitan Averages
As compared to the Nation and the Metro area, Leesburg has a higher concentration of its households in
the “full nest” stage of life – 35 to 54 years old. As of 2017, Leesburg had a lower share of its
households headed by persons 65 and older as compared to the Nation, the Metro, and Loudoun
County. Household age trends indicate that, while young, Leesburg’s household composition has been
aging.
2 National Research Center, Inc., “The National Citizens Survey: Loudoun County, Community Livability Report,
2018”.
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The Leesburg Population Is Well-Educated and High Income
Over half (52%) of Leesburg’s population over 25 years old have a college or professional degree. This
number is above the Washington Region where 50% have a bachelor’s degree or above. Leesburg’s
median household income ($105,844) is lower than the Loudoun County average ($129,588) and higher
than the Washington Metropolitan Area average ($97,149). With relatively large families, Leesburg’s
per capita income is below the Metro and county averages.
Household and Employment Forecasts Indicate Continued Growth Over the Next 20 Years
Figure 2
Loudoun County Planning Areas
Source: Loudoun County
The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) works with local jurisdictions to
forecast population, households and employment given market dynamics and existing land use policies.
These forecasts are constrained by current land use policy. MWCOG’s latest round of forecasts, Round
9.1, are available for Loudoun County and the Leesburg Planning Area. The Leesburg Planning Area
boundaries are depicted in Figure 2.
Population, household and employment forecasts were also developed as part of the County’s Envision
Loudoun Master Planning process. Unlike MWCOG’s forecasts, these forecasts were not constrained by
land use policy. As such, for purposes of this report these forecasts are called the “Market-Based”
forecast.
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Figure 3
Loudoun County Policy Areas
Source: Loudoun County
The Market-Based forecast projects housing unit growth for the Suburban, Urban and Transition Policy
Areas of Loudoun County and, by process of elimination, the Rural and Town policy areas (see Figure
12). The Market-Based forecast does not project households, housing units or employment growth for
specific towns or Town Policy Areas. The housing unit forecasts are indicative of projected household
growth.
Table 2
The table above compares the MWCOG Round 9.1 housing unit forecasts to Market-Based forecast’s
medium growth scenario. The forecasts are similar in how they allocate growth between the
Suburban/Urban/Transition Policy Areas and the Rural/Town Policy Areas of the County. The Market-
#%#%#%
Loudoun County 21,042 9,494 30,536
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts 14,512 69.0%5,681 59.8%20,193 66.1%
Rural/Towns 6,530 31.0%3,813 40.2%10,343 33.9%
Loudoun County 31,830 28,290 60,120
Transition/Suburban/Metro Districts 21,980 69.1%17,010 60.1%38,990 64.9%
Rural/Towns 9,850 30.9%11,280 39.9%21,130 35.1%
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Market-Based Forecast
MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast
New Housing Unit Forecast - Round 9.1 and Market-Based - Medium Scenario
Loudoun County, Suburban/Urban/Transition Districts Policy Areas, and Rural/Town Policy Areas
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
- 6 -
Based forecast foresees considerable growth (over 20,000 housing units) in the Rural and Town Policy
Areas. Leesburg is the likely location for much of this growth.
Loudoun County has Become a Professional Employment Center over the Last 18 Years.
Figure 4
Jobs by Industry Sector
Loudoun County
2000 and 2018
Source: Moody’s Analytics; W-ZHA
With approximately 170,900 jobs, Loudoun County has shifted from having an information-,
transportation and warehousing-, and government-driven economy in 2000 to a professional, scientific
and technical service- and government-driven economy in 2018. The construction and retail industries
have been consistently strong in the County due to its rapid household growth.
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Over the Next 20 Years Loudoun County is Forecast to Grow by More Jobs Than It Did Over the Last 18
Years.
Table 3
MWCOG and Market-Based employment forecasts differ in terms of County employment. Like
households, MWCOG’s growth forecasts are more conservative between 2020 and 2040 as compared to
the Market-Based forecast. Under all scenarios, County jobs are projected to grow significantly over the
next 20 years.
Noteworthy Investments and Projects in Leesburg Will Likely Impact the Town’s Economic Position in
the County.
In 2018, Microsoft bought 332 acres in Leesburg where reportedly it plans to develop office space and
data centers. Across the street, ION International Training Center opened in 2019, which is expected to
draw visitors from across the globe.
Loudoun United is a 2nd division professional soccer team whose stadium has recently opened in
Leesburg. Also planned for Leesburg is a D.C. United (1st division professional soccer team) training
center and youth academy. These investments and others will positively impact Leesburg’s economic
development potential.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL
Market Landscape
According to the American Community Survey 2017 5-year estimates, there were approximately 17,812
housing units in the Town of Leesburg in 2017. Over one-quarter of the units in Leesburg were multi-
family dwelling units. Less than half of the Town’s residential units are single family detached units.
Leesburg’s housing stock is more diverse than the county’s housing supply.
Approximately 30% of the occupied housing units in Leesburg are rentals. According to Trulia.com, a
residential database, the median rent for a rental property in Leesburg over the last 12 months was
$2,208 per month. This rent level is affordable to households with incomes of $88,000 or more (if no
2018 2020 2030 2040 #%#%#%
Jobs 170,897 195,198 243,375 277,790 48,177 24.7%34,415 14.1%82,592 42.3%
Jobs
Low 170,897 177,300 224,300 265,200 47,000 26.5%40,900 18.2%87,900 49.6%
Medium 170,897 178,700 232,090 280,900 53,390 29.9%48,810 21.0%102,200 57.2%
High 170,897 179,180 239,200 298,770 60,020 33.5%59,570 24.9%119,590 66.7%
COG Round 9.1 Forecast
Market-Based Forecast
Source: 2018 Employment, Moody's Analytics, economy.com; Loudoun County, "Loudoun County COG 9.1 Forecasts"; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Loudoun County Employment Forecasts
COG Round 9.1 and Market-Based
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
- 8 -
more than 30% of income is spent on housing). The average rent level is above what half of the rental
market can afford.
Home prices are high in Leesburg. The average sales price for a home in Leesburg has increased from
under $400,000 in 2009 to over $550,000 as of August 2019. New homes sell for an average of
approximately $650,000 and older homes, $446,000.
Leesburg’s housing market is strong. In August 2019, the ratio of actual sales price to original listing
price was 99.1% in Leesburg. A high sales price to original asking price ratio indicates strong demand
with limited supply.
The strength of a market is also demonstrated by the average days a for-sale home stays on the market.
The median time on the market before sale for Leesburg as of June 2019 was 14 days. Townhomes in
Leesburg stayed on the market for an average of 7 days in June 2019. There is clearly more demand
than supply in Loudoun County and Leesburg.
Residential Prospects
Dwelling unit forecasts from MWCOG and the Market-Based forecast were applied to project housing
demand in the Leesburg Planning Area over the next 20 years.
Table 4
Market prospects for residential are very strong. Demographic factors like an increasing number of
smaller households and the need for affordable housing results in a market demanding a wider variety
of housing types in the Leesburg Planning Area. Over one-quarter of the net new housing units forecast
over the next 20 years will be multi-family. Higher density housing product is best located in mixed-use
environments where the ability to walk to goods and services is prized.
Units
Constrained by
Land use Policy Market Driven
Single Family Detached 1,340 -2,640
Single Family Attached 2,130 -4,620
Multi-Family 1,690 -2,690
Total 5,160 -9,950
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area Housing Demand
2020-2040
- 9 -
RETAIL MARKET POTENTIAL
Retail Landscape
There are an estimated 3 million square feet of retail, service and eat/drink space in Leesburg’s Historic
District and shopping centers. Leesburg is the retail center for western Loudoun County which makes
the community market relatively large. For this reason, Leesburg has a relatively high concentration of
retail.
The downtown area contains the Historic District (estimated to have approximately 84,000 square feet
of retail, service and restaurant space 3) and approximately 763,000 square feet of shopping center
space. Most of the shopping centers in the downtown were built over 20 years ago. As such, most of
downtown’s retail outside of the Historic District is auto oriented. Outside of the downtown are newer,
conventional shopping centers that are mostly auto oriented. The one exception is the Village at
Leesburg which contains retail, restaurants and services in a mixed-use, walkable environment.
Retail Prospects
Retail employment forecasts were applied to forecast retail demand in the Leesburg Planning Area over
the next 20 years.
Table 5
Growth will result in increased demand for retail and restaurant space in the Leesburg Planning Area.
Demand for between 769,000 and 1 million square feet of retail space are projected over the next 20
years in the Leesburg Planning Area.
The Leesburg market will be attractive to specialty retailers seeking markets with high discretionary
income. Specialty retailers like art galleries, boutique clothing stores, and gift shops tend to be smaller
3 A Retail Market Analysis for Downtown Leesburg by Streetsense (January 2016) calculated that the entire
Downtown (including the Historic District and excluding Shenandoah Shopping Center and Crescent Place)
contained 663,870 square feet. Applying this estimate, the Historic District contains approximately 84,000 square
feet of retail and restaurant space.
MWCOG 9.1 Market Driven
Retail and Eat/Drink Space 769,000 -1,035,000
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area Retail Demand
2020-2040
- 10 -
tenants that benefit from co-tenancy with other specialty retailers. These types of tenants function well
in a town center environment, not a big-box-shopping center environment.
Leesburg’s Historic District is quite small and already well-occupied. Opportunities for retail expansion is
limited here. The Village at Leesburg and small retail clusters like Crescent Place offer opportunities but
they are limited. To realize its market potential, Leesburg needs to expand its retail offerings in
pedestrian-oriented, walkable environments.
There may be an opportunity to redevelop under-utilized property in the downtown area into mixed-
use, walkable projects with retail, services, entertainment, and restaurant uses on the ground floor with
residential and/or office above. Planned properly, redevelopment can serve to expand downtown’s
offerings and, in turn, increase its market drawing power.
OFFICE MARKET POTENTIAL
Office Market Landscape
There are three multi-tenant submarkets in Loudoun County: Route 28 North, Leesburg and Route 7.
The Leesburg submarket contains Leesburg and western region of Loudoun County. With approximately
1.2 million square feet, the Leesburg submarket accounts for 10% of the County’s multi-tenant office
supply. Leesburg is the smallest multi-tenant office submarket in Loudoun County. The Route 28 North
submarket contains approximately 60% of the County’s multi-tenant office space.
Leesburg’s multi-tenant office market is essentially full with a vacancy rate of 2.3%. Albeit with a
smaller supply of multi-tenant office, Leesburg’s vacancy rate is significantly lower than Route 28 North
and Route 7. Reportedly, commercial office brokers in Leesburg struggle to fulfill tenant interest
because of the dearth of available space.
Leesburg’s average Class A rent is higher than the Route 7 submarket and slightly lower than the Route
28 North submarket. Leesburg’s relatively high average rent is indicative of its appeal and constrained
supply.
- 11 -
Office Prospects
Office-inclined job forecasts were applied to forecast office demand in the Leesburg Planning Area over
the next 20 years.
Table 6
Employment forecasts will drive demand for approximately 1 million square feet of office in Leesburg.
The Leesburg Planning Area’s potential to realize 1 million square foot of office space is largely
dependent on two factors: the presence of an expanded, walkable, mixed-use district near the Historic
District and lease/own office commitments from medium to large companies like Microsoft.
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL MARKET POTENTIAL
Light Industrial Landscape
The industrial product best suited for the Leesburg Planning Area market is light industrial flex space. As
its name implies, flex space is suitable for office, warehouse, and light industrial uses.
According to CBRE’s Marketview report for Northern Virginia there are three industrial submarkets in
Loudoun County: Route 28/Dulles North, Leesburg and Outlying Loudoun County. According to the
CBRE report, as of the 2nd Quarter of 2019 there were 402,720 square feet of flex space in Leesburg.
Flex space in Leesburg is fully leased.
MWCOG: Land Use
Policy
Modified - Market
Driven
Office Square Feet 957,300 -1,022,400
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Office Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
- 12 -
Light Industrial Prospects
Industrial job forecasts were applied to forecast flex space demand in the Leesburg Planning Area over
the next 20 years.
Table 7
Prospects for additional light industrial in the Leesburg Planning Area are strong. Light industrial will
likely incorporate both flex industrial space and data center space. St. John Properties is currently
constructing approximately 160,000 square feet of speculative flex space at the Leesburg Tech Park next
to the Leesburg Executive Airport. There is 300,000 square feet of light industrial planned at Compass
Creek also by the Leesburg Executive Airport.
HOTEL MARKET POTENTIAL
Hotel Landscape
There are six national-brand hotels in Leesburg containing 571 rooms. Leesburg’s hotel supply contains
economy, select service, and suite products. There are no full-service luxury or upscale boutique hotels
in Leesburg. All of Leesburg’s hotels are located on the eastern edge of downtown or outside of
downtown on Route 7.
According to data provided by Visit Loudoun, Leesburg hotels are performing well. The revenue per
available room (RevPAR) for Leesburg hotels was $74.69 in July 2019. Since 2013, Leesburg hotels’
revenue per available room has increased by 36%. This rate of growth was well above the national
average over this period, 25%.
According to Visit Loudoun’s 2019 Lodging Study transient business travel, corporate groups, and
association travel account for 41.7% of Leesburg’s occupied room nights. Leisure travel, weddings, and
sports tournaments account for 45.1% of Leesburg’s occupied room nights.
MWCOG: Land Use
Policy
Modified - Market
Driven
Light Industrial Square Feet 1,178,900 -1,223,000
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Light Industrial Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
- 13 -
Hotel Prospects
The Market-Based hotel market methodology was applied to forecast hotel demand in the Leesburg
Planning Area over the next 20 years.
Table 8
Given employment forecasts there will be demand for over 400 hotel rooms in the Leesburg Planning
Area. At Fort Evans Square there is a 114-room hotel in the site plan approval process now. Compass
Creek and Tuscarora Village both have zoning which allows for hotel development.
Interviews with Visit Loudoun and economic development representatives indicated that Leesburg
needs a full-service hotel with conference space. This product does not exist in Leesburg. A full-service
hotel with conference space would support corporate and community functions.
Based on MWCOG
Employment
Projections
Market-Based
Forecast
Hotel Rooms 486 -440
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Hotel Room Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
MARKET ASSESSMENT
LEESBURG TOWN PLAN
Prepared For:
The Town of Leesburg, VA
Prepared By:
W-ZHA, LLC
December, 2019
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1
SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................ 1
REGIONAL INFLUENCES ON LOUDOUN COUNTY AND LEESBURG MARKETS ..................... 2
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS ..................................... 9
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL .................................................................... 25
Housing Supply and Trends................................................................................... 25
Housing Tenure and Affordability ........................................................................ 27
Rental Market ....................................................................................................... 28
For-Sale Market..................................................................................................... 29
Housing Demand ................................................................................................... 31
Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 35
RETAIL MARKET POTENTIAL ............................................................................ 35
Retail Landscape ................................................................................................... 35
Market Potential ................................................................................................... 39
Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 42
OFFICE MARKET POTENTIAL ........................................................................... 44
Office Supply and Trends ...................................................................................... 43
Demand ................................................................................................................. 46
Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 49
ii
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL MARKET POTENTIAL ............................................................. 50
Flex Supply ........................................................................................................... 50
Demand ................................................................................................................. 51
Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 53
HOTEL MARKET POTENTIAL ............................................................................ 54
Hotel Existing Conditions and Trends .................................................................. 54
Hotel Demand ....................................................................................................... 55
Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 57
INTRODUCTION
This Market Assessment was conducted to inform Leesburg’s update of its Town Plan. It quantifies
demand for housing, retail, office, light industrial and hotel from 2020 to 2040. This Market Assessment
has relied on forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (Round 9.1)
and the Market Analysis for Envision Loudoun, Loudoun County’s new comprehensive plan.
SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
Table 1
Leesburg is in a very strong market where, for many land uses, demand is outpacing supply. Leesburg’s
planning challenge is not lack of market, but, instead, harnessing growth in a manner that enhances
resident quality of life and creates a strong and sustainable local economy.
Residential Dwelling Units
Single Family Detached 1,340 2,640
Single Family Attached 2,130 4,620
Multi-Family 1,690 2,690
Total 5,160 9,950
Sq Ft Employment Sq Ft Employment
Office /1 957,300 4,034 1,022,400 4,368
Light Industrial Flex and Data Center /2 1,178,900 1,725 2,087,800 2,438
Hotel 486 Rooms 292 440 Rooms 264
Retail /3 768,900 2,043 1,035,000 2,809
1. The Market-Based forecast was modified upwards due to the Microsoft land purchase at Compass Creek.
3. The Market-Based scenario was modified to take into consideration market leakage and same store productivity growth.
Source: W-ZHA
MWCOG Round 9.1 Based Market-Based
Land Use Forecasts
2. The Market-Based forecast assumes that the Leesburg Planning Area captures 85% of Town and Rural Policy Area's light industrial and data center potential.
Leesburg Planning Area
2020 to 2040
- 2 -
REGIONAL INFLUENCES ON LOUDOUN COUNTY AND LEESBURG MARKETS
Washington Metropolitan Area Economy and Growth
Figure 1
Exurbs, Suburbs, and Urban Counties
Washington Metropolitan Area
Source: The George Washington University Center for Washington Area Studies, “State of the Capitol Region: 2019”.
The Washington Metropolitan Area is depicted in Figure 1. The Urban area is in dark blue. Suburban
counties are colored in light blue, and Washington Metro Area Exurbs are colored green. Leesburg and
Loudoun County are characterized as Washington Metro Area “Exurbs.”
- 3 -
Table 2
The Washington Metro Area is a dynamic region with one of the strongest economies in the nation. The
Metropolitan Area ranks 5th among all United States’ Metros in terms of Gross Metropolitan Product.
While the Federal government still plays an important role in the region’s growth, the Washington
Metro economy continues to diversify. CBRE Research ranks Washington, DC market area #3 in terms of
tech talent behind the San Francisco Bay Area and New York markets.1
1 CBRE Research, “2018 Scoring Tech Talent”.
Rank Metropolitan Area GMP ($M)
1 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA $1,717,712
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA $1,043,735
3 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI $679,699
4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX $535,499
5 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV $529,920
6 San Fransisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA $500,701
7 Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX $490,071
8 Philadelphia-Camden,Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD $444,975
9 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH $438,684
10 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA $385,542
Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis; W-ZHA
Gross Metropolitan Product
Top 10 United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas
2017
- 4 -
Figure 2
Jobs
Washington Metropolitan Area
Source: U.S. Census LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics; W-ZHA
Jobs are distributed throughout the Metropolitan Area with the highest job concentrations in the
District of Columbia and its Suburbs (Prince George’s County, Montgomery County, and Fairfax County).
Regional job growth draws talent from across the globe to the Washington Metro Area. Approximately
23% of the Metro Area’s population is foreign-born.
The Dulles Technology Corridor
The Dulles Technology Corridor is an area along and between the Dulles Toll Road (VA SR 267) and Route
7 (VA SR 7). There is a concentration of defense, telecom and technology firms here as well as Dulles
International Airport. These firms and data centers take advantage of the fiber optic infrastructure
located here.
Dubbed by Atlantic magazine the “Silicon Valley of the East”, the Dulles Technology Corridor is a major
economic development asset. The agglomeration of tech companies attracts talent globally and puts
Northern Virginia on the tech map. The Dulles Corridor is a hub for cloud computing and cyber-
- 5 -
technology because of the region’s concentration of federal agencies and access to skilled labor.2 The
Northern Virginia region has the largest and most active data center market in the United States.3
The Dulles Technology Corridor has taken advantage of, and contributes to, Loudoun County’s racial and
ethnic diversity, high income, and above average educational attainment. Well-educated and high
earning, tech workers are a potential market for Leesburg’s residential, office, retail, entertainment, and
hotel markets.
Dulles Corridor Metrorail – Silver Line Extension Phase II
The Washington Metro System’s Silver Line Extension Phase II extends Metro from Reston, VA in Fairfax
County to Loudoun County. There are 11 new stations planned in Phase II. When completed in 2020,
Dulles International Airport will be accessible via Metro from downtown DC. The Extension will also
bring transit to the Dulles Technology Corridor.
Figure 3
DC Metro Silver Line Map
Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
There are two stations planned for Loudoun County, the Loudoun Gateway station just north of Dulles
Airport and an Ashburn Village station. Metro is expected to unlock significant transit-oriented
development potential. Much of Loudoun County’s future growth and development is projected to
occur in and around the Metro station areas and in the eastern part of the county.
2 Washington Business Journal, “Big tech is taking off in NoVa”, February 20, 2019.
3 Data Center Frontier, “Special Report: Northern Virginia Data Center Market Extends Leadership Market” 2018.
- 6 -
Washington Region’s Exurban Growth Trends
Figure 4
Change in Occupied Housing Units
Urban, Suburban and Exurban Washington Region
2000 - 2017
Source: The George Washington University Center for Washington Area
Studies, “State of the Capital Region, 2019”, American Community Survey; W-ZHA
Figure 4 illustrates how the housing market has accommodated regional growth. Since 2000, the
Exurban counties have added more housing units than the Urban and Suburban counties combined,
with Loudoun County adding more than any other single jurisdiction.
Loudoun
Prince
William
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Urban Suburban Exurban
Ne
w
H
o
u
s
i
n
g
U
n
i
t
s
- 7 -
Figure 5
Number of Occupied Housing Units by Year Built
Exurban Market, Loudoun County, and Leesburg
Before 2000 and Since 2000
Source: The George Washington University Center for Washington Area Studies, “State of the Capital Region, 2019”,
American Community Survey; W-ZHA
Loudoun County has led the way on housing growth. The number of occupied housing units more than
doubled between 2000 and 2017. Loudoun’s population also more than doubled during this period
making it one of the fastest growing counties in the nation. Rapid growth has transformed what was
once rural countryside to new residential subdivisions.
69%
47%
61%
31%
53%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Exurban Market Loudoun, Including
Leesburg
Leesburg
Before 2000 Since 2000
- 8 -
Figure 6
Housing by Type
Loudoun County
Before 2000 and Since 2000
Source: The George Washington University Center for Washington Area Studies, “State of the Capital Region, 2019”,
American Community Survey; W-ZHA
The single-family home (which includes townhouses) has continued to dominate housing construction in
Loudoun County. Over 44% of the households in Loudoun County are family households with children at
home. At the same time, half of all households in Loudoun County are one- and two-person households.
Quality of Life and Sustainability
A 2018 National Citizens Survey revealed that 87 percent of Loudoun County residents rated the
county’s quality of life as excellent or good.4 Aspects of the community where resident satisfaction was
higher than the national average included:
• K-12 education (87% rated positively)
• Overall economic health (85% rated positively)
• Shopping opportunities (80% rated positively)
• Place to visit (79% rated positively)
• Place to work (76% rated positively)
• Employment opportunities (66% rated positively)
4 National Research Center, Inc., “The National Citizens Survey: Loudoun County, Community Livability Report,
2018”
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
50+ Units
20 - 49 Units
5 - 19 Units
2 - 4 Units
Single Family
Built Before 2000 Built 2000 and After
- 9 -
Aspects of the community where resident satisfaction was below national benchmarks included:
• Cost of living (18% rated positively)
• Travel by public transportation (19% rated positively)
• Quality affordable housing (23% rated positively)
• Traffic flow (28% rated positively)
• Travel by bicycle (36% rated positively)
• Ease of walking (47% rated positively)
• Overall ease of travel (54% rated positively)
As might be expected with the level of growth experienced in Loudoun County, affordability and
mobility are key challenges facing Loudoun County and the Leesburg community.
Regional economic strength, a pro-growth county, and nearby infrastructure investment (airport, fiber
optic, and Metrorail service) contribute to a growing local economy. Because of its unique historic core
and town status, Leesburg can define how it will leverage growth to enhance residents’ quality of life
and achieve economic development.
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
Fast Growth
Loudoun County’s and Leesburg’s population growth since 2000 has outpaced the Washington
Metropolitan Area. Loudoun County’s population more than doubled over the last 17 years. With
almost 400,000 people in Loudoun County, it is the 2nd largest Exurban county within the Capital Region.
Where the county represented 3.5% of the Capital Region’s population in 2000, it represented 6.2% in
2017.
Table 3
The American Community Survey estimates that there were over 51,000 Leesburg residents in 2017.
The U.S. Census estimates Leesburg’s 2018 population at approximately 53,900. While Leesburg has not
2000 2010 2017 #%#%#%
Washington Metro /1 4,837,430 5,636,232 6,090,196 798,802 16.5%453,964 8.1%1,252,766 25.9%
Loudoun County 169,599 312,311 374,588 142,712 84.1%62,277 19.9%204,989 120.9%
Leesburg 28,614 42,616 51,015 14,002 48.9%8,399 19.7%22,401 78.3%
1. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area including both Metropolitan Divisions.
Change
Source: 2000 and 2010 Census; 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
Population Trends
Washington Metro Area, Loudoun County and Leesburg
2000, 2010, 2017
2000-2010 2010-2017 2000-2017
- 10 -
grown as quickly as the county since 2000, Leesburg’s population increased by approximately 80% over
this 17-year period.
Table 4
Like population, the number of households in Loudoun County and Leesburg has grown rapidly. Most of
the household growth occurred from 2000 to 2010. The number of households in Leesburg increased by
two-thirds between 2000 and 2017.
Families Have Driven Household Growth in Leesburg
Table 5
Family households have driven growth in Loudoun County and Leesburg. Family households account for
over three-quarters of Loudoun County and Leesburg households. Over 40 percent of households in
both Loudoun County and Leesburg have children under the age of 18.
Over the last seven years, households with children account for less of the household growth rate. This
shift is particularly true in Leesburg. In Leesburg households with children at home accounted for
2000 2010 2017 #%#%#%
Washington Metro /1 1,815,193 2,094,033 2,203,717 278,840 15.4%109,684 5.2%388,524 21.4%
Loudoun County 59,900 104,583 121,299 44,683 74.6%16,716 16.0%61,399 102.5%
Leesburg 10,282 14,441 17,026 4,159 40.4%2,585 17.9%6,744 65.6%
1. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area including both Metropolitan Divisions.
Household Trends
Washington Metro Area, Loudoun County and Leesburg
2000, 2010, 2017
Change
Source: 2000 and 2010 Census; 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
2000-2010 2010-2017 2000-2017
Households #% Change % of Chng #% Change % of Chng
Family 45,020 75%80,494 77%94,277 78%49,257 109.4%80.2%13,783 17.1%82%
Non-Family 14,880 25%24,089 23%27,022 22%12,142 81.6%19.8%2,933 12.2%18%
Total 59,900 100%104,583 100%121,299 100%61,399 102.5%100.0%16,716 16.0%100%
Households w/
Children < 18 27,037 45%50,189 48%57,900 48%30,863 114.2%50.3%7,711 15.4%46.1%
Households 2000 2010 2017 #% Change % of Chng #% Change % of Chng
Family 7,258 70%10,522 73%12,706 75%5,448 75.1%81.3%2,184 20.8%84%
Non-Family 3,067 30%3,919 27%4,320 25%1,253 40.9%18.7%401 10.2%16%
Total 10,325 100%14,441 100%17,026 100%6,701 64.9%100.0%2,585 17.9%100%
Households w/
Children < 18 4,472 43%6,796 47%7,653 45%3,181 71.1%47.5%857 12.6%33.2%
Source: 2000 and 2010 Census; 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
Change 2010 - 2017
Loudoun County
Leesburg
Change 2010 - 2017
Household Types
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2000, 2010, 2017
Change 2000 - 2017
Change 2000 - 2017
2000 2010 2017
- 11 -
almost half of the growth between 2000 and 2010 and approximately one-third of the growth between
2010 and 2017.
Table 6
As a result of the household composition, the average household size in Loudoun County is 3.07
persons. Leesburg’s average household size is 2.98 persons. Both Loudoun and Leesburg’s average
household size exceeds the United State and Metro average.
Figure 7
Household Size
U.S., Washington Metro, Loudoun County, Leesburg
2017
Source: ESRI; W-ZHA
Even with a high average household size, half of the households in Leesburg are one- and two-person
households.
Average
Household Size
U.S.2.63
Washington Metro 2.76
Loudoun County 3.07
Leesburg 2.98
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
Average Household Size
U.S., Washington Metro, Loudoun County, Leesburg
2017
20.1%
29.7%
16.6%
33.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4+-Person
Household Size
U.S.Washington MSA Loudoun County Leesburg
- 12 -
One Quarter of Leesburg’s Population is Either Hispanic or Asian.
Table 7
Over 60% of Leesburg’s residents are white and not Hispanic. Approximately 17% of Leesburg’s
population is Hispanic and almost 8% is Asian. Whites that are not Hispanic accounted for two-thirds of
the population growth since 2010. Leesburg experienced growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations
as well.
Population #CAGR*% of Chng
White, Not Hispanic 194,845 62.4%216,137 57.7%21,292 1.5%34%
Black, Not Hispanic 21,934 7.0%26,970 7.2%5,036 3.0%8%
Hispanic, Any Race 38,576 12.4%50,569 13.5%11,993 3.9%19%
Asian 45,795 14.7%64,055 17.1%18,260 4.9%29%
Other 1,471 0.5%3,371 0.9%1,900 12.6%3%
2+ Races 9,690 3.1%13,860 3.7%4,170 5.2%7%
Total 312,311 100.0%374,588 100%62,277 2.6%100%
Population #CAGR*% of Chng
White, Not Hispanic 26,829 63.0%32,308 63.3%5,479 2.7%65%
Black, Not Hispanic 3,921 9.2%3,724 7.3%(197)-0.7%-2%
Hispanic, Any Race 7,431 17.4%8,775 17.2%1,344 2.4%16%
Asian 2,982 7.0%3,979 7.8%997 4.2%12%
Other 194 0.5%699 1.4%505 20.1%6%
2+ Races 1,259 3.0%1,530 3.0%271 2.8%3%
Total 42,616 100.0%51,015 100.0%8,399 2.6%100%
* CAGR means compound average annual growth rate.
Source: 2000 and 2010 Census; 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
2010 2017
Leesburg
Change 2010 - 2017
2010 2017
Race and Ethnicity
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2010, 2017
Loudoun County
Change 2010 - 2017
- 13 -
Table 8
Over 20% of Leesburg’s residents are foreign-born. Most of Leesburg’s foreign-born population
originated in either Latin America or Asia. Between 2010 and 2017, foreign-born resident growth
accounted for 37% of the Town’s overall population growth.
Total % of Total Total % of Total Total CAGR % of Total
Total Population 291,653 100%374,558 100%82,905 3.6%100%
Foreign Born Population 63,426 21.7%89,449 23.9%26,023 5.0%31%
Origination Total % of Total Total % of Total Total CAGR % of FB
Europe 6,135 9.7%8,057 9.0%1,922 4.0%7.4%
Asia 33,295 52.5%50,091 56.0%16,796 6.0%64.5%
Africa 3,042 4.8%5,577 6.2%2,535 9.0%9.7%
Oceania 210 0.3%147 0.2%(63)-5.0%-0.2%
Latin America 19,833 31.3%24,516 27.4%4,683 3.1%18.0%
North America 911 1.4%1,061 1.2%150 2.2%0.6%
Total Foreign Born 63,426 89,449 26,023 100.0%
Total % of Total Total % of Total Total CAGR % of Chng
Total Population 40,713 100%51,015 100%10,302 3.3%100%
Foreign Born Population 7,290 17.9%11,079 21.7%3,789 6.2%36.8%
Origination Total % of Total Total % of Total Total CAGR % of FB
Europe 748 10.3%1,546 14.0%798 10.9%21.1%
Asia 2,511 34.4%4,118 37.2%1,607 7.3%42.4%
Africa 214 2.9%826 7.5%612 21.3%16.2%
Oceania 14 0.2%22 0.2%8 6.7%0.2%
Latin America 3,689 50.6%4,401 39.7%712 2.6%18.8%
North America 114 1.6%166 1.5%52 5.5%1.4%
Total Foreign Born 7,290 100.0%11,079 100.0%3,789 100.0%
Source: American Community Survey, 2010 and 2013-2017; W-ZHA
2010 2017 2010-2017 Growth
2010 2017 2010-2017 Growth
Leesburg
Foreign-Born Population
2010 2017 2010-2017 Growth
2010 2017 2010-2017 Growth
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2010, 2017
Loudoun
- 14 -
Leesburg’s Households Are Generally Younger Than National and Metropolitan Averages
Figure 8
Age of Head of Household
United States, Washington Metro, Loudoun County, Leesburg
2017
Source: American Community Survey 2013-2017 5-Year Estimate; W-ZHA
As compared to the Nation and Metro, Leesburg has a higher concentration of its households in the “full
nest” stage of life – 35 to 54 years old. As of 2017, Leesburg had a lower share of its households headed
by persons 65 and older.
Table 9
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+
%
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U.S.Washington MSA Loudoun County Leesburg
2000 2010 2017 #%% of Chng #%% of Chng
Householder 15 to 24 years 374 413 475 101 27.0%1.5%62 15.0%2.4%
Householder 25 to 34 years 2,477 2,844 2,649 172 6.9%2.6%-195 -6.9%-7.5%
Householder 35 to 44 years 3,266 3,964 4,141 875 26.8%13.1%177 4.5%6.8%
Householder 45 to 54 years 2,101 3,703 4,852 2,751 130.9%41.1%1,149 31.0%44.4%
Householder 55 to 64 years 1,160 2,038 2,724 1,564 134.8%23.3%686 33.7%26.5%
Householder 65 to 74 years 550 868 1,181 631 114.7%9.4%313 36.1%12.1%
Householder 75 to 84 years 325 413 738 413 127.1%6.2%325 78.7%12.6%
Householder 85 years and ove 72 198 266 194 269.4%2.9%68 34.3%2.6%
Total 10,325 14,441 17,026 6,701 64.9%100.0%2,585 17.9%100.0%
Source: Census 2000; American Community Survey, 2006-2010 & 2013-2017; W-ZHA
Head of Household Age Trends
Leesburg
2000, 2010, 2017
Change 2000 - 2017 Change 2010- 2017
- 15 -
Most of Leesburg’s household growth has occurred among households headed by persons aged 45 to 64
years old. Over this same period, Leesburg lost households headed by persons aged 25 to 34. This
cohort is often targeted because they typically stay in a community to raise families.
Figure 9
Age of Head of Household Trends
Leesburg
2000, 2010, 2017
Source: U.S. Census 2000; American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
Household age trends indicate that, while young, Leesburg’s household composition has been aging.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
15 -24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85+
%
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2000 2010 2017
- 16 -
The Leesburg Population Is Well-Educated and High Income
Table 10
Educational Attainment
United States, Washington Metro, Loudoun County, Leesburg
2017
Source: American Community Survey 2013-2017 5-Year Estimate; W-ZHA
Over half (52%) of Leesburg’s population over 25 years old have a college or professional degree. This
number is above the Washington Region where 50% have a bachelor’s or above. In Loudoun County,
60% of residents over 25 have a college or professional degree.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
%
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U.S.Washington MSA Loudoun County Leesburg
- 17 -
Table 11
Leesburg’s median household income is lower than the Loudoun County average and higher than the
Washington Metropolitan Area average. With relatively large families, Leesburg’s per capita income is
below the Metro and county averages.
Figure 10
Household Income Distribution
United States, Washington Metro, Loudoun County, Leesburg
2017
Source: Washington Metro and Loudoun County, ACS 2017 1 Year; Leesburg ACS 2017 5-Year; W-ZHA
Over one-in-five Leesburg households have less than $50,000 in annual income. Another quarter of
Leesburg’s households have $50,000 to $100,000 in income per year. While median income is high in
Leesburg, a significant share of the Town’s households are not high-income.
Median
Household
Income
Per Capita
Income
United States $57,652 $31,177
Washington MSA $97,148 $46,267
Loudoun County $129,588 $50,456
Leesburg $105,844 $42,575
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; W-ZHA
Median Household Income and Per Capita Income
U.S., Washington MSA, Loudoun County, Leesburg
2017
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
< $50K $50K - $100K $100K - $200K $200K +
%
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Washington MSA Loudoun County Leesburg
- 18 -
Household and Employment Forecasts Indicate Continued Growth Over the Next 20 Years
Household Projections
MWCOG Round 9.1
Figure 11
Loudoun County Planning Areas
Source: Loudoun County
The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) works with local jurisdictions to
forecast population, households and employment given market dynamics and existing land use policies.
These forecasts are constrained by current land use policy. MWCOG’s latest round of forecasts, Round
9.1, are available for Loudoun County and the Leesburg Planning Area.
Table 12
MWCOG forecasts that from 2020 to 2030 household growth will be somewhat slower than it was
between 2010 and 2017. From 2030 to 2040 land and regulatory constraints greatly reduce growth to
under 10% for the county as a whole and the Leesburg Planning Area.
2017 2020 2030 2040 #%#%#%
Loudoun County 129,769 137,880 157,982 166,952 20,102 14.6%8,970 5.7%29,072 21.1%
Leesburg Planning Area na 20,241 24,542 25,213 4,301 21.2%671 2.7%4,972 24.6%
Source: Loudoun County, "Loudoun County COG 9.1 TAZ Forecasts"; American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate; W-ZHA
MWCOG Round 9.1 Household Forecasts
Loudoun County and Leesburg Planning Area
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
- 19 -
Envision Loudoun
Population, household and employment forecasts were also developed as part of the county’s Envision
Loudoun Master Planning process. Unlike MWCOG’s forecasts, these forecasts were not constrained by
land use policy. Envision Loudoun’s forecasts are based on market projections. The Envision Loudoun
Plan includes low, medium, and high forecasts for population, households, housing units and
employment for the county. The report will refer to the Envision Loudoun forecasts as the “Market-
Based Forecast.”
Table 13
In all scenarios, Market-Based household forecasts far exceed MWCOG’s Round 9.1 forecasts. The
Market-Based forecasts do not take into consideration jurisdictions’ land use policies. Where the
MWCOG and the Market-Based household forecasts really depart is in the 2030-2040 timeframe.
Figure 12
Loudoun County Policy Areas
Source: Loudoun County
2017 2020 2030 2040 #%#%#%
Households 121,299 137,880 157,982 166,952 20,102 14.6%8,970 5.7%29,072 21.1%
Households
Low 135,000 164,000 186,600 29,000 21.5%22,600 13.8%51,600 38.2%
Medium 136,300 167,600 195,500 31,300 23.0%27,900 16.6%59,200 43.4%
High 137,800 174,300 207,100 36,500 26.5%32,800 18.8%69,300 50.3%
Source: Loudoun County, "Loudoun County COG 9.1 Forecasts"; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Household Projections
COG Round 9.1 and Market-Based
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
COG Round 9.1 Forecast
Market-Based Forecast
- 20 -
The Market-Based forecast projects housing unit growth for the Suburban, Urban and Transition Policy
Areas of Loudoun County and, by process of elimination, the Rural and Town policy areas (see Figure
12). The Market-Based forecast does not project households, housing units or employment growth for
specific towns or Town Policy Areas. The housing unit forecasts are indicative of projected household
growth.
Table 14
The table above compares the MWCOG Round 9.1 housing unit forecasts to the Market-Based forecast’s
medium scenario. The forecasts are similar in how they allocate growth between the
Suburban/Urban/Transition Policy Areas and the Rural/Town Areas of the county. The Market-Based
forecast foresees considerable growth, over 20,000 housing units, in the Rural and Town Policy Areas.
Leesburg is the likely location for much of this forecasted growth.
#%#%#%
Loudoun County 21,042 9,494 30,536
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts 14,512 69.0%5,681 59.8%20,193 66.1%
Rural/Towns 6,530 31.0%3,813 40.2%10,343 33.9%
Loudoun County 31,830 28,290 60,120
Transition/Suburban/Metro Districts 21,980 69.1%17,010 60.1%38,990 64.9%
Rural/Towns 9,850 30.9%11,280 39.9%21,130 35.1%
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Market-Based Forecast
MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast
New Housing Unit Forecast - Round 9.1 and Market-Based - Medium Scenario
Loudoun County, Suburban/Urban/Transition Districts Policy Areas, and Rural/Town Policy Areas
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
- 21 -
Loudoun County has Become a Professional Employment Center over the Last 18 Years
Total at-place-of-work employment is not readily available on a town basis. The U.S. Census provides
data on non-federal jobs only.
Table 15
According to the U.S. Census, there were approximately 14,100 private sector jobs in Leesburg in 2017.
Jobs are concentrated in the retail industry. There are approximately 1,900 jobs in each of the following
industry sectors: professional, scientific, and technical services; health care and social assistance; and
accommodation and food services. In addition to these private sector jobs there are public sector jobs
including large employers in Leesburg like the Federal Aviation Administration, Loudoun County
government, Loudoun Public Schools, and the Town of Leesburg.
Jobs Share
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 2 0.0%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0.0%
Utilities 62 0.4%
Construction 589 4.2%
Manufacturing 413 2.9%
Wholesale Trade 132 0.9%
Retail Trade 3,894 27.6%
Transportation and Warehousing 120 0.9%
Information 274 1.9%
Finance and Insurance 643 4.6%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 159 1.1%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,896 13.4%
Management of Companies and Enterprises 290 2.1%
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 522 3.7%
Educational Services 317 2.2%
Health Care and Social Assistance 1,922 13.6%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 175 1.2%
Accommodation and Food Services 1,844 13.1%
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)843 6.0%
Public Administration 0 0.0%
Total 14,097 100.0%
1. This data excludes government jobs.
Source: U.S. Census, LEHD Origin‐Destination Employment Statistics; W -Z
Private Sector Primary Jobs /1
Leesburg
2017
- 22 -
Table 16
From 2000 to 2018, the number of jobs in Loudoun County almost doubled. With 80,000 jobs added
over this period, county jobs grew by 88%. As demonstrated in Table 16, most of the new jobs were
generated in the 2000 to 2010 timeframe.
Table 17
2000 2018 #%#%#%
Jobs 90,876 145,630 170,897 54,754 60.3%25,267 17.3%80,021 88.1%
Source: Moody's Analytics (2000 & 2010); VA Employment Commission, "VA Community Profile: Loudoun County" (2018); W-ZHA
Employment Trends
Loudoun County
2000, 2010, 2018
Change
2010
2000-2010 2010-2018 2000-2018
#% Chng
For, Fishing, and Rel. Act.(1,175)-74.5%
Mining 23 11.9%
Utilities (76)-32.5%
Construction 8,314 98.4%
Manufacturing 1,746 29.9%
Wholesale Trade 1,664 96.7%
Retail Trade 8,846 93.9%
Transport & Warehsg 1,048 10.9%
Information (3,157)-31.1%
Finance & Insurance 1,893 106.7%
Real Estate 1,205 115.6%
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services 14,868 238.7%
Mgmt of Comp 428 42.7%
Admin & Waste Services 4,896 103.8%
Education Services 2,252 281.3%
Health & Soc. Services 8,825 207.5%
Arts, Entert, & Rec 2,083 149.1%
Accomod & Food Service 9,206 130.1%
Other Services 3,243 130.5%
Government 13,344 103.5%
Total 80,021 88.1%
Source: Moody's Analytics (2000 & 2010); VA Employment
Commission, "VA Community Profile: Loudoun County" (2018); W-
ZHA
New Jobs
Loudoun County
2000 - 2018
2000-2018
- 23 -
Between 2000 and 2018, most of the county’s job growth occurred in the professional, scientific, and
technical service industry sector and the government sector. There was also significant job growth in
the accommodation and food service, retail, health care and social services, and construction industry
sectors as well.
Figure 13
Jobs by Industry Sector
Loudoun County
2000 and 2018
Source: Moody’s Analytics; W-ZHA
The county has shifted from having an information-, transportation and warehousing-, and government-
driven economy in 2000 to a professional, scientific and technical service- and government-driven
economy in 2018. The construction and retail industries have been consistently strong in the county
due to its rapid household growth.
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- 24 -
Over the Next 20 Years Loudoun County’s At-Place of Work Employment is Forecast to Grow More
Than It Did Over the Last 18 Years.
Table 18
MWCOG and the Market-Based employment forecasts also differ in terms of at-place of work
employment. Like households, MWCOG’s growth forecasts are more conservative between 2020 and
2040 as compared to the Market-Based forecast. Under all scenarios, at-place of work employment is
projected to grow significantly over the next 20 years.
Noteworthy Investments and Projects in Leesburg Will Likely Impact the Town’s Economic Position in
the County.
In 2018, Microsoft bought 332 acres in the Compass Creek project near the Leesburg Executive Airport.
Reportedly, Microsoft plans on developing office and data centers on this property.
Across the street, ION International Training Center opened in 2019. ION is an indoor skating complex
with a practice rink and a rink with 3,500 seats. The rinks can be covered to accommodate concerts with
a maximum capacity of 5,500. The ION International Training Center will draw visitors from across the
globe.
Loudoun United is a 2nd division professional soccer team whose stadium has recently opened near
Leesburg. Opened in August 2019, Segra Field is located inside Philip A. Bolen Memorial Park. Also
planned for the park is a D.C. United (1st division professional soccer team) training center and youth
academy.
These investments and others will positively impact Leesburg’s economic development potential.
2018 2020 2030 2040 #%#%#%
Jobs 170,897 195,198 243,375 277,790 48,177 24.7%34,415 14.1%82,592 42.3%
Jobs
Low 170,897 177,300 224,300 265,200 47,000 26.5%40,900 18.2%87,900 49.6%
Medium 170,897 178,700 232,090 280,900 53,390 29.9%48,810 21.0%102,200 57.2%
High 170,897 179,180 239,200 298,770 60,020 33.5%59,570 24.9%119,590 66.7%
COG Round 9.1 Forecast
Market-Based Forecast
Source: 2018 Employment, Moody's Analytics, economy.com; Loudoun County, "Loudoun County COG 9.1 Forecasts"; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Loudoun County Employment Forecasts
COG Round 9.1 and Market-Based
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
- 25 -
RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL
Housing Supply and Trends
Table 19
According to the American Community Survey 2017 5-year estimates, there were approximately 17,812
housing units in the Town of Leesburg in 2017. Leesburg’s housing stock is more diverse than the
county’s housing supply.
Residential construction trends indicate that the pace of residential construction has slowed over the
last 10 years as compared to the prior 10 years. As indicated on the following table, where the average
number of dwelling units built per year between 2000 and 2009 was 433 units, between 2010 and 2019
the average dropped to 108 units per year. Reportedly, the slowdown in construction was not a
function of market demand, but a function of land scarcity.
Loudoun
County
Town of
Leesburg
Single Family Detached 53.4%45.0%
Single Family Attached 29.1%27.0%
Multi-Family 16.9%27.6%
Other 0.6%0.4%
Housing Unit Supply
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2017
Source: American Community Survey 2013-2017 and 2006-2010;
W-ZHA
- 26 -
Table 20
A total of approximately 5,400 housing units were developed over the last 20 years in Leesburg. Forty
percent of the new units over this period were single family units, 37% were townhouses, and 19% were
multifamily units. The 2-over-2 or stacked townhome product is a recent addition to the housing
product mix.
Year
Single Family
Homes Townhomes
2-over-2
Condos Multifamily Total
2000 392 209 0 0 601
2001 454 238 0 34 726
2002 368 193 0 207 768
2003 304 284 0 5 593
2004 188 187 0 29 404
2005 121 172 0 294 587
2006 60 77 0 114 251
2007 9 33 0 0 42
2008 1 68 0 0 69
2009 0 44 0 243 287
Sub-Total 1,897 1,505 0 926 4,328
% of Total 44%35%0%21%100%
Ann Avg 2000 -09 190 151 0 93 433
2010 3 62 0 121 186
2011 2 59 0 0 61
2012 24 54 0 0 78
2013 53 52 0 0 105
2014 38 60 0 0 98
2015 33 11 0 0 44
2016 8 72 44 0 124
2017 22 78 50 0 150
2018 62 30 48 0 140
2019 41 28 17 5 91
Sub-Total 286 506 159 126 1,077
% of Total 7%12%4%3%25%
Ann Avg 2010 -19 29 51 16 13 108
Grand Total 2,183 2,011 159 1,052 5,405
% of Total 50%46%4%24%125%
Ann Avg 2000 -19 109 101 8 53 270
Source: Town of Leesburg; W-ZHA
Residential Construction
Town of Leesburg
2000 to 2019
- 27 -
Housing Tenure and Affordability
Table 21
Approximately 30% of the occupied housing units in Leesburg are rentals. Leesburg has a higher share
of rentals as compared to Loudoun County. Rentals as a percent of total housing has increased in
Leesburg over the last seven years just as it has in the county and the Metropolitan Area.
Table 22
According to the American Community Survey 2017 5-year estimates, in 2017 over half of all renters in
Leesburg were spending more than 30% of their income on housing. Almost a quarter of homeowners
were spending more than 30% of their household income on housing. The national benchmark for
reasonable housing expense is 30% of income.
2010 2017 2010 2017 2010 2017
Own Home 66.2%63.4%80.8%77.9%74.7%70.1%
Rent Home 33.8%36.6%19.2%22.1%25.3%29.9%
Source: American Community Survey 2013-2017 and 2006-2010; W-ZHA
Washington Metro Loudoun County Leesburg
Housing Tenure
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2010, 2017
Metro Loudoun Leesburg
Own Home 24.4%22.2%24.2%
Rent Home 46.0%46.2%51.6%
Source: American Community Survey 2013-2017; W-ZHA
% of Hshlds Paying 30%+ of
Income for Housing…
Housing Affordability - % Paying 30%+ of Income for Housing
Metro Washington, Loudoun County and Leesburg
2017
- 28 -
Rental Market
In the Town of Leesburg, 60% of renters are one- and two-person households. In terms of age, 28% of
renting households are headed by a person under the age of 35 and another 26% are headed by a
person 35 to 40 years old. The median income bracket among renters in Leesburg is $50,000 to
$60,000. A $50,000 income can afford $1,250 in monthly rent.
According to Trulia.com, a residential database, the median rent for a rental property in Leesburg over
the last 12 months was $2,208 per month. This rent level is affordable to households with incomes of
$88,000 or more, if no more than 30% of income is spent on housing. The average rent level is above
what half of the rental market can afford.
For-Sale Market
Figure 14
Number of Sales and Average Sales Price Trend
Town of Leesburg
2009 to August 2019
Source: Bright MLS; W-ZHA
The graph above depicts housing sales (in green) and average sale price (in blue) for Leesburg houses
from 2009 to 2019. The average sales price for a home in Leesburg has increased from under $400,000
in 2009 to over $550,000 as of August 2019. The number of sales dropped in 2019 due to lack of for-
sale housing inventory. According to brokers, prices will likely continue to increase if limited inventory
continues.
- 29 -
Table 23
Prices are high in Leesburg. The average sales price per square foot in Leesburg through July of 2019
was $232 per square foot. New homes sell for an average of approximately $650,000 and older homes,
$446,000.
New Units
Avg Price Price /SF Avg Price Price /SF Avg Price Price /SF
2-over-2 $479,390 $213 $501,365 $215 $431,870 $221
Condominium na na na na $312,225 $362
Single Family Detached $812,860 $221 $782,660 $227 $786,415 $247
Townhouse $512,910 $232 $598,730 $212 $623,948 $207
Avg All Units $537,245 $633,455 $652,320
Not New Units
Avg Price Price /SF Avg Price Price /SF Avg Price Price /SF
2-over-2 na na na na $433,300 $198
Condominium $184,405 $181 $198,525 $197 $215,575 $209
Single Family Detached $527,780 $227 $543,310 $235 $459,200 $249
Townhouse $359,160 $202 $366,280 $212 $399,290 $223
Avg All Units $405,025 $415,920 $446,000
Source: Town of Leesburg; W-ZHA
Home Sales
Leesburg
2017, 2018, 2019
2017 2018 2019
2017 2018 2019
- 30 -
Figure 15
June Active Listings
Loudoun County
2010 - 2019
Source: Dulles Area Association of Realtors, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, “June
2019 Loudoun County Market Trends Report”; W-ZHA housing market.xls
The chart above illustrates active June for-sale housing listings from 2010 to 2019. Indicative of limited
inventory, the number of active listings has been dropping since 2015. For Leesburg, between June
2018 and June 2019, the number of active listings decreased by 7.9%.
Figure 16
Sales Price to Original Asking Price Ratio
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2010 - 2019
Source: Dulles Area Association of Realtors, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, “June
2019 Loudoun County Market Trends Report”; W-ZHA
1,681 1,697
1,420 1,419
2,194 2,213
1,848
1,551
1,207 1,084
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ju
n
e
A
c
t
i
v
e
L
i
s
t
i
n
g
s
95.5%
96.0%
96.5%
97.0%
97.5%
98.0%
98.5%
99.0%
99.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Sa
l
e
s
P
r
i
c
e
t
o
O
r
i
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n
a
l
A
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P
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e
R
a
t
i
o
Loudoun Leesburg
- 31 -
In August 2019, countywide, the ratio of actual sales price to original listing price was 99.2%! In
Leesburg, the ratio was 99.1%. In this market, it is not unusual for home sellers to get their original
asking price. A high sales price to original asking price ratio indicates strong demand with limited supply.
Figure 17
Median Days on Market Before Sale
Loudoun County and Leesburg
2016 - 2019
Source: Dulles Area Association of Realtors, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, “June
2019 Loudoun County Market Trends Report”; W-ZHA
The strength of a market is also demonstrated by the average days a for-sale home stays on the market.
The median time on the market before sale for Loudoun County as of June 2019 was 16 days. In
Leesburg, it was 14 days. Townhomes in Leesburg stayed on the market for an average of 7 days in June
2019. There is clearly more demand than supply in Loudoun County and Leesburg.
Housing Demand
As described previously, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and Loudoun County’s
Comprehensive Plan forecast housing unit growth to 2040. The MWCOG Round 9.1 forecasts are
constrained by local land use policy and do not include projected land use changes based on the 2019
Loudoun County Comprehensive Plan update.5 Envision Loudoun, the county’s Comprehensive Plan,
forecasts housing units for the county using low, medium, and high scenarios The Envision Loudoun
forecasts are based on market demand and were not constrained by local land use policies
5 The Comprehensive Plan’s projected land use changes will be incorporated into MWCOG’s Round 9.2
scheduled for 2020.
51
44
38
16
44
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019
Me
d
i
a
n
D
a
y
s
o
n
M
a
r
k
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t
Loudoun Leesburg
- 32 -
(“Market-Based forecast”). For purposes of this analysis, the Market-Based medium forecast is applied.
The table below summarizes the housing unit forecasts from these two sources.
Table 24
Between 2020 and 2040 MWCOG forecasts that there will be approximately 30,500 new housing units in
the county. The Market-Based approach forecasts 60,000 new units over this same time period. The
Rural and Town Policy Areas are forecast to capture approximately a third of the housing unit growth or
10,000 to 21,000 new units.
#%#%#%
Loudoun County 21,042 9,494 30,536
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts 14,512 69.0%5,681 59.8%20,193 66.1%
Rural/Towns 6,530 31.0%3,813 40.2%10,343 33.9%
Loudoun County 31,830 28,290 60,120
Transition/Suburban/Metro Districts 21,980 69.1%17,010 60.1%38,990 64.9%
Rural/Towns 9,850 30.9%11,280 39.9%21,130 35.1%
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Market-Based Forecast
MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast
New Housing Unit Forecast - Round 9.1 and Market-Based - Medium Scenario
Loudoun County, Suburban/Urban/Transition Districts Policy Areas, and Rural/Town Policy Areas
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
- 33 -
Table 25
MWCOG Round 9.1 forecasts that the Leesburg Planning Area will absorb half of all new residential
development in the Rural and Towns Policy Area between 2020 and 2040. Most of the units forecast for
the Leesburg Planning Area are higher-density products – townhouses and multi-family units. Most of
the single-family housing is forecast to develop in other towns and the rural areas of the county.
According to the American Community Survey 2017 5-Year Estimates, there were approximately 2,900
multi-family housing units in the Town of Leesburg in 2017. The MWCOG projection of 1,690 new multi-
family units represents a 34% increase from the 2017 supply. The projection of 2,130 new single family
attached units represents a 44% increase from 2017 supply.
The MWCOG 9.1 forecast was used as a proxy to estimate the Leesburg Planning Area’s housing
potential under the Market-Based forecast. MWCOG Round 9.1 capture rates for the 2020-2030 and
2030-2040 time periods were applied to the Market-Based forecast’s medium scenario.
2020-2040
Loudoun County 21,042 9,494 30,536
14,512 5,681 20,193
Rural/Towns 6,530 3,813 10,343
Single Family Detached 4,034 2,424 6,458
Single Family Attached 1,668 486 2,154
Multi-Family 828 903 1,731
Leesburg Planning Area 3,407 1,755 5,162
Single Family Detached 973 366 1,339
Single Family Attached 1,646 486 2,132
Multi-Family 788 903 1,691
Leesburg PA % of Rural/Towns Policy Area 52%46%50%
Single Family Detached 24%15%21%
Single Family Attached 99%100%99%
Multi-Family 95%100%98%
New Housing Unit Forecast - Round 9.1
Various Geographies
2020, 2030, 2040
MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1; W-ZHA
New Units
2020-2030 2030-2040
- 34 -
Table 26
Applying this methodology to the Market-Based forecasts indicates demand for approximately 9,950
new housing units in the Leesburg Planning Area over the next 20 years. This magnitude of demand is
comparable to the amount of housing developed in the Leesburg Planning Area between 2000 and
2017. It is important to note that the Leesburg Planning Area forecast is market-driven only; it does not
take into consideration whether there is enough land or zoning to accommodate this level of growth.
Applying this methodology Leesburg’s supply of multi-family units would increase by over half and the
single family attached supply would more than double. The single-family detached inventory would
increase by a third.
2020-2040
Loudoun County 31,830 28,290 30,536
21,980 17,010 38,990
Rural/Towns 9,850 11,280 21,130
Single Family Detached 6,320 7,410 13,730
Single Family Attached 2,190 2,460 4,650
Multi-Family 1,340 1,410 2,750
Leesburg PA % of Rural/Towns Policy Area
Single Family Detached 24%15%21%
Single Family Attached 99%100%99%
Multi-Family 95%100%98%
Leesburg Planning Area (Estimate)
Single Family Detached 1,524 1,119 2,643
Single Family Attached 2,161 2,460 4,621
Multi-Family 1,275 1,410 2,685
Total 4,961 4,989 9,950
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Extrapolation
New Housing Unit Forecast - Market-Based Forecast and Extrapolated for Leesburg Planning Area
Various Geographies
2020, 2030, 2040
New Units
2020-2030 2030-2040
Market-Based Forecast
- 35 -
Conclusions
Table 27
Market prospects for residential are very strong. There will be increasing demand for higher density
housing products as baby boomers downsize and as the market seeks more affordable housing options.
Higher density housing product is best sited in mixed-use environments where the ability to walk to
goods and services is prized.
Given the existing “hot” housing market in the Leesburg Planning Area and a market-based housing unit
forecast, there is more housing demand than the Leesburg Planning Area can accommodate. Scarcity
will force prices up, making affordable housing a more acute issue.
Demographic factors like an increasing number of smaller households and the need for affordable
housing results in a market demanding a wider variety of housing types in the Leesburg Planning Area.
Over one-quarter of the net new housing units forecast for the next 20 years will be multi-family.
RETAIL MARKET POTENTIAL
Retail Landscape
Leesburg’s Historic District contains restaurants, entertainment venues and specialty shops. Patrons
enjoy the district’s historic character and pedestrian-oriented ambiance. The Historic District is a
destination.
Units
Constrained by
Land use Policy Market Driven
Single Family Detached 1,340 -2,640
Single Family Attached 2,130 -4,620
Multi-Family 1,690 -2,690
Total 5,160 -9,950
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area Housing Demand
2020-2040
- 36 -
Table 28
There are an estimated 3 million square feet of retail, service and restaurant space in Leesburg’s Historic
District and shopping centers. This number translates into 59 square feet of retail per Leesburg
resident. Retail supply per person in the United States is 23.6 square feet per person. Leesburg is more
than double the national average.
Leesburg is the retail center for western Loudoun County which makes the community market relatively
large. For this reason, Leesburg has a relatively high concentration of retail. The only regional shopping
center in Leesburg is the Leesburg Corner Premium Outlets.
Figure 18
Leesburg Downtown Area
Source: ESRI; Google Maps
Sq Ft
Historic District (Rough Estimate)84,000
Downtown Shopping Centers 762,965
Other Shopping Centers 2,176,760
Total 3,023,725
Source: Streetsense, "Retail, Entertainment & Culture Cluster Study, Loudoun
County, VA (2016); W-ZHA
Retail Supply - Historic District and Shopping Centers
Leesburg
2019
- 37 -
The Downtown Area (as depicted in Figure 18) contains the Historic District (estimated to have
approximately 84,000 square feet of retail, service and restaurant space6) and approximately 763,000
square feet of shopping center space.
Table 29
All the downtown shopping centers target local patrons. Most of the shopping centers in the downtown
were built over 20 years ago. As such, most of downtown’s retail outside of the Historic District is in
auto-oriented strip shopping centers. Outside of the Historic District, there is very little high-amenity,
walkable retail in downtown Leesburg.
6 A Retail Market Analysis for Downtown Leesburg by Streetsense (January 2016) calculated that the entire
Downtown (including the Historic District and excluding Shenandoah Shopping Center and Crescent Place)
contained 663,870 square feet. Applying this estimate, the Historic District contains approximately 84,000 square
feet of retail and restaurant space.
Center Name Sq Ft Cntr Type Notable Anchors
Leesburg Plaza 236,000 Community Giant, Petsmart, Pier 1, Office Depot
Shenandoah Square 152,910 Community Vacant Walmart (60,000 SF)
Virginia Village 128,650 Community Farmer's Market
AutoZone Center 65,980 Community AutoZone, Little Ceasar's, Wells Fargo
Bellewood Commons 61,635 Community Eastern World Market, Starbucks, Red,Hot & Blue
Crescent Place 30,000 Neighborhood
Tollhouse 29,350 Neighborhood La Villa Rome Restaurant, Health By Nature
Catoctin Corner 22,135 Neighborhood Jimmy Johns, Family Dentistry, DogGoneNatural
Village Square 18,900 Neighborhood
Plaza Center 12,065 Neighborhood
Plaza Court 5,340 Neighborhood
Total 762,965
Source: Internet Research; W-ZHA
Downtown Shopping Centers Outside of Historic District
Leesburg
- 38 -
Table 30
Newer shopping centers contain larger, big box stores like Walmart and Costco. Leesburg Corner
Premium Outlets draws patrons locally and regionally. The Village at Leesburg is a Town Center-style
mixed-use development that offers a unique, walkable experience. Except for the outlets and the
Village at Leesburg, all the retail centers outside of the downtown are big-box-anchored community
retail centers oriented to the automobile.
Figure 19
Shopping Destinations Near Leesburg
Source: ESRI; Google Maps
Center Name Sq Ft Cntr Type Notable Anchors
Leesburg Corner Premium Outlets 465,000 Outlet/Super-Regional GAP, Banana Republic, J. Crew, Crate&Barrel
Village at Leesburg 400,000 Town Center Wegman's, Cobb Theaters, Bowlero
Compass Creek*190,000 Community Walmart
Battlefield Shopping Center 314,270 Community Dick's, Michael's, Ross, DSW
Battlefield Marketplace 280,180 Community Kohl's, Target, Costco
Fort Evans Plaza I 170,000 Community Home Depot, Hobby Lobby, Petco
Marketplace at Potomac Station 152,480 Community Giant, BestBuy
Fort Evans Plaza II 70,830 Community Bed Bath & Beyond, Marshalls, Jo-Ann Fabrics
Lowe's 134,000 Community Lowe's
Total 2,176,760
* 550,000 square feet of retail planned.
Source: Peterson Companies website; W-ZHA
Leesburg Area Major Shopping Centers
Leesburg
- 39 -
The Leesburg Corner Premium Outlets, the Village at Leesburg, One Loudoun and Dulles Town Center
Mall are all within 10 miles or a 15-minute drive from downtown Leesburg. Robust regional retail supply
will limit Leesburg’s ability to grow regional retail.
Opened in 2011, the Village at Leesburg is a Town Center-style mixed-use development anchored by a
Wegman’s grocery store, Cobb Theater, and Bowlero, an upscale bowling alley. Notable retailers in the
Village include Orvis, Ulta, and Plow and Hearth. The Village also includes a food incubator, ChefScape,
where entrepreneurs have access to a commercial kitchen. The Village at Leesburg offers shopping,
dining, and events in a walkable, high-amenity environment.
One Loudoun is a mixed-use community that opened in 2013. One Loudoun is planned to feature over
1,000 new homes, 3 million square feet of office space, and over 700,000 square feet of retail,
restaurant and entertainment space. The downtown area of One Loudoun opened in 2013 and
currently contains approximately 20 restaurants and 60 storefronts totaling 470,000 square feet. One
Loudoun contains the Alamo Drafthouse and Cinema and is mostly restaurants with some retail like
Barnes and Noble, Great Gatherings, and some specialty stores. There are several service businesses as
well.
Dulles Town Center Mall is Loudoun County’s only super-regional mall. The 1.4 million square foot mall
is anchored by Regal Cinema, Macy’s, Lord & Taylor, H &M, and Dick’s Sporting Goods. Unlike the
Village at Leesburg and One Loudoun and like the Outlets, Dulles Town Center Mall offers enough retail
to comparison shop.
Market Potential
Leesburg’s households are well-educated and high income. The market’s spending index for all types of
retail and entertainment is well above average. The Leesburg market will continue to be attractive to
prospective retailers particularly specialty retailers seeking markets with high discretionary income.
MWCOG Round 9.1 forecasts retail employment from 2020-2040 by Transportation Analysis Zone.
Using the TAZ map, the TAZ’s that comprise the Leesburg Planning Area were identified.
- 40 -
Table 31
The MWCOG Round 9.1 forecast projects that there will be over 2,000 more jobs in the Leesburg
Planning Area between 2020 and 2040. Applying Loudoun County Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines
for space per retail job and long run retail vacancy, the retail employment forecast translates into
approximately 769,000 square feet of new retail space.
The Market-Based forecast projects future retail space demand via household spending growth. The
analysis herein mirrors the Market-Based forecast’s analytic approach. The Leesburg Planning Area
housing unit forecast was applied. The town’s 2019 estimated average income from ESRI was used to
estimate gross income. The analysis is in 2019 constant dollars.
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Net New Retail Jobs 1,325 718 2,043
Space /Worker /1 350 350 350
Net Demand 463,800 251,300 715,100
Less: Vacancy /1 7%7%7.0%
Retail Space Demand 498,700 270,200 768,900
1. From Loudoun County, "2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines"
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecasts; Loudoun County, "2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines"; W-ZHA
Retail Potential - MWCOG TAZ Forecast
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
Change
- 41 -
Table 32
Applying the Market-Based forecast methodology results in demand projections for 1.4 million square
feet of retail space. The Market-Based methodology assumes that all new demand will result in new
retail development. In fact, some of the new retail spending will occur in existing stores and on-line.
For these reasons, the Market-Based methodology likely overstates retail development potential.
2020-2040
New Households Leesburg Planning Area
Average Income /1
Total Income
Business Category
% of
Income Sales /SF Sales Sq Ft Sales Sq Ft Sq Ft
Food Services - Restaurants 5.6%$361 $38,160,366 105,686 $38,376,316 106,284 211,971
Supermarkets & Other Groceries 5.0%$423 $33,551,298 79,398 $33,741,166 79,847 159,244
Bldg Material & Supply Dealers 4.5%$268 $30,230,059 112,871 $30,401,131 113,510 226,381
Discount Stores 4.4%$284 $29,891,157 105,362 $30,060,311 105,958 211,320
Other General Merchandise 3.3%$454 $22,638,654 49,830 $22,766,767 50,112 99,942
Clothing 1.6%$284 $11,048,205 38,943 $11,110,727 39,164 78,107
Department Stores 1.3%$284 $8,540,330 30,103 $8,588,660 30,274 60,377
Pharmacies and Drig Stores 0.8%$309 $5,490,212 17,740 $5,521,282 17,840 35,579
Furniture Stores 0.7%$185 $4,744,628 25,578 $4,771,478 25,723 51,301
Convenience Stores 0.5%$237 $3,592,361 15,153 $3,612,690 15,238 30,391
Household Appliances 0.4%$263 $2,846,777 10,830 $2,862,887 10,891 21,721
Sporting Goods & Toy Stores 0.4%$155 $2,778,996 17,959 $2,794,723 18,060 36,019
Home Furnishings 0.4%$284 $2,440,094 8,601 $2,453,903 8,650 17,251
Book Stores 0.3%$145 $2,304,534 15,912 $2,317,575 16,003 31,915
Pet, Hobby & Craft Stores 0.3%$253 $2,304,534 9,111 $2,317,575 9,162 18,273
Shoes Stores 0.3%$284 $1,965,632 6,929 $1,976,755 6,968 13,896
Office Supplies & Stationary 0.3%$309 $1,897,851 6,132 $1,908,591 6,167 12,299
Fitness Centers 0.3%$206 $1,694,510 8,213 $1,704,099 8,259 16,472
Drinking Places - Bars 0.2%$284 $1,626,730 5,734 $1,635,935 5,766 11,500
Jewelry Stores 0.2%$309 $1,491,169 4,818 $1,499,607 4,845 9,664
Specialty Food Stores 0.2%$413 $1,355,608 3,285 $1,363,279 3,304 6,589
Photofinishing 0.2%$356 $1,355,608 3,807 $1,363,279 3,828 7,635
Florists 0.2%$309 $1,152,267 3,723 $1,158,788 3,744 7,467
Gift & Novelty 0.1%$145 $948,926 6,552 $954,296 6,589 13,141
Laundries and Dry Cleaners 0.1%$309 $813,365 2,628 $817,968 2,643 5,271
Theaters 0.1%$361 $474,463 1,314 $477,148 1,321 2,636
New Dealers & Newstands 0.1%$103 $406,682 3,942 $408,984 3,964 7,907
Luggage and Leather Goods 0.0%$361 $67,780 188 $68,164 189 377
Total Supportable Sq Ft from Growth 700,300 704,300 1,404,600
Source: Envision Loudoun, "Appendix: Retail Tables"; W-ZHA
Retail Demand - Market-Based Forecast Methodology
Leesburg Planning Area
2020 -2040
2020-2030 2030-2040
$136,633
$677,804,007
4,989
$136,633
$681,639,716
4,961
- 42 -
Table 33
In this analysis, it is assumed that 70% of the Leesburg Planning Area’s new retail spending potential will
result in new retail space demand. This result in approximately 1 million square feet of new retail space
over the next 20 years.
Conclusions
Table 34
Growth will result in increased demand for retail and restaurant space in the Leesburg Planning Area.
Demand for between 769,000 and 1 million square feet of retail space is projected over the next 20
years in the Leesburg Planning Area.
The Leesburg market will be attractive to specialty retailers seeking markets with high discretionary
income. Specialty retailers like art galleries, boutique clothing stores, and gift shops tend to be smaller
tenants that benefit from co-tenancy with other specialty retailers. These types of tenants function well
in a town center environment, not a big-box-shopping center environment.
Leesburg’s Historic District is quite small and already well-occupied. Opportunities for small retail
expansion is limited here. The Village at Leesburg and small retail clusters like Crescent Place offer
opportunities but they are limited. To realize its market potential, Leesburg needs to expand its retail
offerings in pedestrian-oriented, walkable environments.
Retail Sq Ft Demand from Growth 1,404,600
Less: Allowance for Market Leakage/Same Store Increased Productivity 30%(421,380)
Net Retail Demand 983,220
Vacancy 5%
Gross Retail Sq Ft Demand 1,035,000
Source: W-ZHA
Retail Demand - Modified Market-Based Forecast Methodology
Leesburg Planning Area
2020 -2040
MWCOG 9.1 Market Driven
Retail and Eat/Drink Space 769,000 -1,035,000
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area Retail Demand
2020-2040
- 43 -
The housing market projections indicate that higher density residential products will be in demand to
address Baby Boomers interests in down-sizing and the market’s demand for less expensive housing
options. There may be an opportunity to redevelop under-utilized property in the Downtown area into
mixed-use, walkable projects with retail, services, entertainment, and restaurant uses on the ground
floor with residential and/or office above. Planned properly, redevelopment can serve to expand
Downtown’s offerings and, in turn, increase its market drawing power.
OFFICE MARKET POTENTIAL
Office Supply and Trends
Table 35
The table above summarizes annual office construction in Leesburg. Office includes both owner-
occupied and multi-tenant, for-rent office space. According to town records, since 2000, an average of
48,870 square feet of office has been developed in Leesburg per year. Most of Leesburg’s office
construction over the last 20 years occurred between 2000 and 2010. Since 2010 office construction has
slowed considerably. Since 2010, only about 219,000 square feet of office have been built (or 21,900
square feet per year).
Brokerage firms track multi-tenant, for-rent office space in Loudoun County and Northern Virginia. The
following trends reflect the multi-tenant market only, not the owner-occupied office market.
Year Sq Ft Year Sq Ft
Grand
Total
2000 0 2010 30,660
2001 144,640 2011 10,650
2002 89,610 2012 30,350
2003 66,300 2013 27,280
2004 0 2014 38,370
2005 15,130 2015 0
2006 0 2016 81,660
2007 75,150 2017 0
2008 238,430 2018 0
2009 129,148 2019 0
Total Sq Ft 758,408 218,970 977,378
% of Total 78%22%100%
Avg Ann Sq Ft 75,840 21,900 48,870
Source: Town of Leesburg, Office of Planning; W-ZHA
Office Construction
Town of Leesburg
2000 to 2019
- 44 -
Figure 20
Multi-Tenant Office Supply by Submarket
Loudoun County
2nd Quarter 2019
Source: CBRE, “Marketview: Northern Virginia Office, 2nd Quarter 2019”; W-ZHA
There are three multi-tenant submarkets in Loudoun County: Route 28 North, Leesburg and Route 7.
The Leesburg submarket contains Leesburg and western region of Loudoun County. With approximately
1.2 million square feet, Leesburg accounts for 10% of the county’s multi-tenant office supply. Leesburg
is the smallest multi-tenant office submarket in Loudoun County. The Route 28 North submarket
contains approximately 60% of the county’s multi-tenant office space.
Table 36
Leesburg’s multi-tenant office market is essentially full with a vacancy rate of 2.3%. Albeit with a
smaller supply of multi-tenant office, Leesburg’s vacancy rate is significantly lower than Route 28 North
Route 28 North
59%
Leesburg
11%
Route 7
30%
Sq Ft
Overall
Vacancy
Rate
Northern Virginia 165,082,272 19.3%
Loudoun County 11,579,822 13.7%
Route 28 North 6,817,570 14.4%
Route 7 3,535,886 16.3%
Leesburg/West Loudoun 1,226,366 2.3%
Source: CBRE, "MarketView: Northern Virginia Office, 2019"; W-ZHA
Multi-Tenant Office Market
Northern Virginia, Loudoun, Leesburg/West Loudoun
2nd Qtr 2019
- 45 -
and Route 7. Reportedly, commercial office brokers in Leesburg struggle to fulfill tenant interest
because of the dearth of available space.
Figure 21
Vacancy Rate by Submarket
Loudoun County
2010-2016, 2019
Source: CBRE, “Western Land Area Market Analysis, August 23, 2016”; CBRE, “Marketview: Northern Virginia
Office, 2nd Quarter 2019”; W-ZHA
As illustrated in 2010 to 2016 and 2019 data above, Leesburg’s office market has not always had a low
vacancy rate. In 2010, Leesburg’s multi-tenant office market was 31% vacant, higher than both Route
28 North and Route 7. The high office vacancy in 2010 was due to the delivery of office buildings at the
Village at Leesburg and the coincident real estate recession. Since 2010 Loudoun County has purchased
182,000 square feet of multi-tenant office space in Leesburg. Thus, as a result of little new multi-tenant
office construction over the last decade and the loss of multi-tenant space to county ownership,
Leesburg’s office vacancy rate today is very low.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mu
l
t
i
-Te
n
a
n
t
O
f
f
i
c
e
V
a
c
a
n
c
y
R
a
t
e
Route 28 North Route 7 Leesburg
- 46 -
Figure 22
Class A Asking Rents
Loudoun County
2nd Quarter 2019
Source: CBRE, “Marketview: Northern Virginia Office, 2nd Quarter 2019”; W-ZHA
Leesburg’s average Class A rent is higher than the Route 7 submarket and slightly lower than the Route
28 North submarket. Both Route 7 and Route 28 North are in the Tech Corridor where high tech
business and data centers proliferate. Leesburg’s relatively high average rent is indicative of its appeal
and constrained supply.
Demand
MWCOG Round 9.1 and the Market-Based forecast project the number of jobs that typically occupy
office space. The MWCOG forecasts take into consideration local land use policies. As such, these
projections may reflect what can be built, rather than what the market can support. The Market-Based
forecast’s medium scenario was applied in the demand analysis.
$23.50
$24.00
$24.50
$25.00
$25.50
$26.00
$26.50
$27.00
$27.50
$28.00
Class A Rent Overall Rent
$27.60
$26.23
$26.51
$25.14
$27.20
$25.20
Av
e
r
a
g
e
R
e
n
t
p
e
r
S
q
u
a
r
e
F
o
o
t
Route 28 North Route 7 Leesburg
- 47 -
Table 37
Unlike housing, MWCOG Round 9.1 Employment Forecasts are more aggressive than the Market-Based
forecast’s medium scenario. This difference is because local zoning may allow for more office than the
market warrants.
Table 38
The Market-Based approach forecasts office demand by applying average square feet per employee and
an office vacancy rate. For the county, the Market-Based forecast’s medium scenario projects demand
for 8.5 million square feet of office space in the county between 2020 and 2040.
2020 2030 2040 #%#%#%
Office Workers 67,528 87,168 106,159 19,640 29.1%18,991 21.8%38,631 57.2%
Office Workers (Medium) 55,190 73,660 91,580 18,470 33.5%17,920 24.3%36,390 65.9%
COG Round 9.1 Forecast
Market-Based
Source: Loudoun County, "Loudoun County COG 9.1 Forecasts"; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Office Employment Forecasts
COG Round 9.1 and Market-Based Forecasts
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Net New Office Workers 18,470 17,920 36,390
Office Space /Worker 215 205 210
Net Demand 3,961,900 3,677,000 7,638,900
Less: Vacancy 13%10%10.3%
Forecast Office Supply 4,473,920 4,046,410 8,520,330
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
1. Total square footages are from Envision Loudoun and are slightly different than square footages if
calculated.
Office Potential - Market-Based Forecast Medium Scenario /1
Loudoun County
2020-2040
Change
- 48 -
Table 39
The Market-Based forecast estimates that approximately 90% of the office demand will be captured in
the Transition, Suburban and Urban Policy Areas of the county. The opportunity for transit-oriented
development in the Urban Policy Area is a significant competitive advantage. Leesburg would likely
capture almost all the office demand forecast for the Rural and Town Policy Areas.
The Market-Based forecast’s assumption that the Transition, Suburban, and Urban Policy Areas will
capture over 90% of office demand between 2020 and 2030 may be aspirational. While not a major
office hub, if the Leesburg Planning Area evolves with a larger, mixed-use walkable core, office potential
will likely be enhanced. Small and medium-sized businesses not reliant on Metro and/or access to the
greater Metropolitan Area may find Leesburg an attractive location.
Table 40
With Leesburg’s potential to expand its historic core to the Crescent District therein creating a larger
mixed-use and walkable district, the market-driven projection has been modified to have the Rural and
Town Policy Areas capture a higher share of office demand. Rather than capturing less than 10% of the
county’s office potential, the Rural and Town Policy Areas in this analysis are projected to capture 12%
Office Demand (Square Feet)4,473,920 4,046,410 8,520,330
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts Capture 4,138,370 92.5%3,596,640 88.8%7,735,010 90.8%
Rural/Towns 335,600 449,800 785,300
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Rural/Town Office Demand -Market-Based Forecast Medium Scenario
Loudoun County Rural and Town Policy Areas
2020-2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Office Demand (Square Feet)8,520,330
Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts Capture 7,497,890 88.0%
Rural/Towns -- Leesburg Planning Area 1,022,400
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Leesburg Office Demand - Modified Market-Driven Scenario
Loudoun County Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
2020-2040
- 49 -
of the county’s office potential. Thus, rather than 785,000 square feet of potential, the market-driven
projection results in approximately 1 million square feet.
MWCOG Round 9.1 forecasts are available by Transportation Analysis Zone. Using the TAZ map, the
TAZs that comprise the Leesburg Planning Area were identified. The MWCOG Round 9.1 forecast
projects that there will be over 4,000 more office jobs in the Leesburg Planning Area between 2020 and
2040.
Table 41
Applying the methodology employed by the Market-Based forecast, office job growth translates into
demand for almost 1 million office square feet in the Leesburg Planning Area between 2020 and 2040.
Conclusions
Table 42
The Leesburg Planning Area’s potential to realize 1 million square foot of office space is largely
dependent on two factors: the presence of an expanded, walkable, mixed-use district near the historic
core and lease/own office commitments from medium to large companies like Microsoft.
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Net New Office Workers 2,018 2,016 4,034
Office Space /Worker 215 205 210
Net Demand 432,900 413,700 846,600
Less: Vacancy 13%10%11.6%
Office Supply 497,600 459,700 957,300
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Office Potential - MWCOG TAZ Forecast
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
Change
MWCOG: Land Use
Policy
Modified - Market
Driven
Office Square Feet 957,300 -1,022,400
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Office Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
- 50 -
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL MARKET POTENTIAL
The industrial product best suited for the Leesburg Planning Area market is light industrial flex space. As
its name implies, flex space is suitable for office, warehouse, and light industrial uses. Flex buildings are
typically one-story with ceiling heights of 14 to 16 feet. The front of the building contains front
entrances while the back of the building can have truck loading docks. Typically set in a business park
setting with surface parking, flex industrial space is less expensive to build than conventional office
space.
Flex Supply
Table 43
According to CBRE’s Marketview report for Northern Virginia, as of the 2nd Quarter of 2019, there were
402,720 square feet of flex space in Leesburg. Since 2010, Loudoun County has purchased 204,000
square feet of Leesburg’s flex space. Currently, Leesburg’s flex supply is limited. The space in Leesburg
is fully leased by light industrial tenants and non-traditional users like gyms and churches that seek less
expensive space. There is very little industrial supply currently in Outlying Loudoun County.
Considering Leesburg’s constrained supply, St. John Properties is currently constructing approximately
160,000 square feet of speculative flex space at the Leesburg Tech Park next to the Leesburg Executive
Airport. Reportedly, St. John Properties is looking for more flex development opportunities in Leesburg.
There is 300,000 square feet of light industrial planned at Compass Creek also by the Leesburg Executive
Airport. In September 2018, Microsoft Corporation bought 333 acres in Compass Creek. It is expected
that Microsoft will develop data centers and, potentially, office or flex space on this land.
Sq Ft Vacancy Sq Ft Vacancy Sq Ft Vacancy
Route 28/Dulles North 12,050,187 3.8%8,878,114 3.9%20,928,301 3.9%
Leesburg 139,486 0.0%402,717 0.0%542,203 0.0%
Outlying Loudoun 60,000 0.0%20,368 0.0%80,368 0.0%
County Total 12,249,673 3.7%9,301,199 3.7%21,550,872 3.8%
Source: CBRE, "Marketview: Northern Virginia Industrial, 2nd Quarter 2019"; W-ZHA
Warehouse Flex Industial Total
Industrial Space
Loudoun County
2nd Quarter 2019
- 51 -
Demand
MWCOG Round 9.1 and the Market-Based forecasts project industrial employment from 2020 to 2040.
MWCOG forecast takes into consideration local land use policies. As such, these projections may reflect
what can be built, rather than what the market can support. The Market-Based forecast also projected
industrial employment. The Market-Based forecast’s medium scenario was applied in the demand
analysis.
Table 44
The industrial jobs in the table above include jobs in both heavy and light industry. Unlike housing,
MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecasts are more aggressive in terms of industrial job growth than the Market-
Based forecast. Because the Leesburg Planning Area will likely not grow heavy industry over the next 20
years, this analysis applies Market-Based forecast’s light industrial job forecasts.
Table 45
The Market-Based forecast projects light industrial space demand by applying average square feet per
light industrial employee and then applies a building vacancy rate. Market-Based approach forecasts
2020 2030 2040 #%#%#%
Industrial Workers 36,130 46,738 51,679 10,608 29.4%4,941 10.6%15,549 43.0%
Industrial Workers (Medium)24,960 30,830 35,650 5,870 23.5%4,820 15.6%10,690 42.8%
1. Forecasts include heavy industrial and light industrial jobs.
COG Round 9.1 Forecast
Market-Based Forecast
Source: Loudoun County, "Loudoun County COG 9.1 Forecasts"; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Loudoun County
Industrial Employment Forecasts /1
COG Round 9.1 and Market-Based Forecasts
2020, 2030, 2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Net New Lt. Industrial Workers 5,640 4,660 10,300
Space /Worker 600 600 600
Net Demand 3,384,000 2,796,000 6,180,000
Less: Vacancy 10%10%10.0%
Lt. Industrial Space Demand 3,760,000 3,106,700 6,866,700
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Light Industrial Space Potential - Medium Scenario
Loudoun County
2020-2040
Change
- 52 -
demand for approximately 6.9 million square feet of additional light industrial space in the county
between 2020 and 2040.
Table 46
The Market-Based forecast projects that approximately three-quarters of the light industrial demand
will be captured in the Suburban, Transition and Urban Policy Areas of the county. Approximately 1.5
million square feet of new light industrial potential is forecast for Loudoun County’s Town and Rural
Policy Areas. As the most developed place, Leesburg would likely capture most of the light industrial
demand forecast for the Rural/Town Policy Area if there is land capacity.
Table 47
It was assumed that the Leesburg Planning Area will capture 80% of the Rural and Town Policy Area light
industrial demand. Given this capture rate, there is the potential for approximately 1.2 million square
feet in the Leesburg Planning Area.
MWCOG Round 9.1 forecasts are available by Transportation Analysis Zone. Using the TAZ map, the
TAZ’s that comprise the Leesburg Planning Area were identified. The MWCOG Round 9.1 forecast
projects that there will be over 4,000 more industrial jobs in the Leesburg Plan Area between 2020 and
2040.
Lt. Industrial Space Demand 3,760,000 3,106,700 6,866,700
Transition/Suburb/Urban PA Capture (3,008,000)80.0%(2,330,000)75.0%(5,338,000)77.7%
Rural/Towns 752,000 776,700 1,528,700
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Light Industrial Space Potential - Medium Scenario
Loudoun County Rural and Town Policy Areas
2020-2040
Change
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
2020-2040
Rural/Towns Lt Industrial Demand (Sq Ft)1,528,700
Leesburg Capture @ 80%
Leesburg Light Industrial Potential (Sq Ft)1,223,000
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Light Industrial Space Potential
Leesburg Plan Area
2020-2040
- 53 -
Table 48
Applying the methodology employed by the Market-Based forecast, MWCOG industrial job growth
forecasts for the Leesburg Planning Area translates into demand for approximately 1.2 million square
feet of light industrial space between 2020 and 2040. This forecast is consistent with the Market-Based
forecast.
Conclusions
Table 49
Prospects for additional light industrial in the Leesburg Planning Area are strong. Light industrial will
likely incorporate both flex industrial space and data center space. Reportedly, Microsoft plans to
develop data centers as part of their plan for its land in Compass Creek.
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Net New Light Industrial Workers 1,256 469 1,725
Space /Worker 600 600 600
Net Demand 753,600 281,400 1,035,000
Less: Vacancy 13%10%12.2%
Lt. Industrial Space Demand 866,200 312,700 1,178,900
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Light Industrial Potential - MWCOG TAZ Forecast
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
Change
MWCOG: Land Use
Policy
Modified - Market
Driven
Light Industrial Square Feet 1,178,900 -1,223,000
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; W-ZHA
Light Industrial Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
- 54 -
HOTEL MARKET POTENTIAL
Hotel Existing Conditions and Trends
Table 50
There are six national-brand hotels in Leesburg containing 571 rooms. Leesburg’s hotel supply contains
economy, select service, and suite products. There are no full-service, luxury or upscale boutique hotels
in Leesburg. The last hotel built was the Homewood Suites approximately 10 years ago.
Figure 23
Hotel Locations
Source: ESRI; Google Maps
All of Leesburg’s hotels are located on the eastern edge of downtown or outside of downtown on Route
7. A seventh hotel, another select service product, is under development outside of downtown.
Hotel Name Rooms
Comfort Suites 80
Best Western Hotel and Conference Center 99
Clarion Inn & Conference Center 120
Hampton Inn 101
Homewood Suites 91
Red Roof Inn 80
Total 571
Source: Visit Loudoun; W-ZHA
Hotel Supply
Leesburg
2019
- 55 -
Table 51
According to data provided by Visit Loudoun, Leesburg hotels are performing well. The revenue per
available room (RevPAR) for Leesburg hotels was $74.69 in July 2019. Since 2013, Leesburg hotels’
revenue per available room has increased by 36%. This rate of growth was well above the national
average over this period, 25%. Generally, a RevPAR in excess of $70 is indicative of a healthy market.
According to Visit Loudoun’s 2019 Lodging Study transient business travel, corporate groups and
association travel account for 41.7% of Leesburg’s occupied room nights. Business-oriented overnight
stays are projected to increase with Microsoft, Stryker and EIT n Leesburg.
Leisure travel, weddings, and sports tournaments account for 45.1% of Leesburg’s occupied room
nights. This market segment is also expected to grow with the recent completion of ION International
Training Center and Loudoun United’s stadium.
Hotel Demand
MWCOG Round 9.1 does not forecast hotel employment specifically. Hotel jobs are included in
MWCOG’s “Other” category. To forecast hotel jobs using MWCOG employment forecasts for the
Leesburg Planning Area, the Market-Based methodology was applied. The Market-Based analysis
assumed that hotel room demand equates to 5% of net new employment.
August - July Occupancy
Average
Daily Rate
Revenue per
Available Room
2016 65.3%$97.48 $63.62
2017 66.9%$100.96 $67.56
2018 65.0%$108.82 $70.69
2019 68.6%$108.82 $74.69
Source: Visit Loudoun; W-ZHA
Hotel Performance
Leesburg
12 Month Average: August to July
- 56 -
Table 52
Using this metric and MWCOG Round 9.1 employment forecasts over the next 20 years there will be
demand for 486 new hotel rooms in the Leesburg Planning Area.
Table 53
The Market-Based forecast projects hotel room demand for the Transition, Suburban, and Urban Policy
Areas of Loudoun County and the Rural and Town Policy Areas. The Market-Based approach forecasts
demand for 3,290 hotel rooms in the county between 2020 and 2040. The Transition, Suburban, and
Urban Policy Areas were forecast to capture 87% of this demand (or 2,850 rooms), leaving 440 rooms
for the Rural and Town Policy Areas. With ION, Microsoft, Stryker, and Segra Field, Leesburg would
likely capture most, if not all, of the Rural/Town hotel demand.
2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040
Net New Workers in Planning Area 5,838 3,880 9,718
Hotel Rooms /Employee /1 5%5%5%
Hotel Room Demand 292 194 486
1. Methodology applied in Market-Based forecast.
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecasts; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Hotel Potential - MWCOG Projection Applying Market-Based Forecast Methodolgy
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040
Countywide Net New Hotel Room Demand 3,290
Transition/Suburb/Urban PA Capture 2,850 86.6%
Rural/Towns 440
Source: Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Hotel Room Potential - Market-Based Forecast
Rural and Town Policy Areas
2020-2040
2020-2040
- 57 -
Conclusions
Table 54
Given employment forecasts there will be demand for over 400 hotel rooms in the Leesburg Planning
Area. At Fort Evans Square there is a 114-room hotel in the site plan approval process now. Compass
Creek and Tuscarora Village both have zoning which allows for hotel development.
Interviews with Visit Loudoun and economic development representatives indicated that Leesburg
needs a full-service hotel with conference space. This product does not exist in Leesburg. A full-service
hotel with conference space would support corporate and community functions.
Based on MWCOG
Employment
Projections
Market-Based
Forecast
Hotel Rooms 486 -440
Source: MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA
Hotel Room Conclusions
Leesburg Planning Area
2020-2040