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HomeMy Public PortalAboutMarch 29, 2009 Letter and Report re Feasibility Study.pdf Innovative Learning Communities Dallas Office 5717 Legacy Drive, Suite 250 Plano, Texas 75024 USA Tel: 214.473.2400 Fax: 214.473.2401 Mobile: 214.403.4987 Contact: Gary Keep, CEO GKeep@SHWGroup.com Tampa Office 16605 Windsor Park Drive Lutz, FL 33549 USA Tel: 718.520.7318 Fax: 813.909.2509 Mobile: 917.406.3120 Contact: Prakash Nair Prakash@FieldingNair.com Minneapolis Office 4937 Morgan Ave. South Minneapolis, MN 55419 USA Tel: 612-925-6897 Fax: 612-922-6631 Mobile: 612-735-1221 Contact: Randall Fielding Randy@FieldingNair.com Melbourne Office 6/570 Riversdale Rd Camberwell, Victoria Australia Tel: + 61 3 9882 3126 Mobile: +61 4 1448 8571 Contact: Annalise Gehling Annalise@FieldingNair.com Websites FieldingNair.com SHWGroup.com DesignShare.com March 4, 2009 Mr. Chip Iglesias, Village Manager Village of Key Biscayne Community Center 10 Village Green Way Key Biscayne, FL 33149 Re: Clarifications to Feasibility Study Dear Mr. Iglesias, This submission is pursuant to the Council’s requests for additional information to supplement and update the data provided by us in the Municipal Charter High School Feasibility Study. A summary document is attached that addresses each question raised by the Council during the February 26th 2009 workshop. This is followed by related supporting documents. We would like to reiterate that the Municipal Charter School would be an invaluable asset to the Village of Key Biscayne. The financial information shows that the school’s operations are, basically, self-funded and fully sustainable over the long term. While it is true that the Village will have to provide the facilities funding, this amount also would be fully and quickly amortized by virtue of the increased property values. I would like to take this opportunity to re-emphasize the points I had made at the workshop to illustrate why this project is vital to the best interests of the Key Biscayne community. I. It will allow the Village to leverage its modest investment to generate over $6,000/student in revenue from the Miami-Dade school system. II. It will allow the Village to control a vital part of its own destiny – the education of its children and future citizens of the community, the nation and the world. This is consistent with the history of the Village for self- governance and its remarkable ability to build a prosperous and vibrant community while overcoming objections and hurdles far greater than those it faces to establish a charter school. Examples are the establishment of the Village itself and, more recently, the development of a superb Community Center. III. It will result in significant increases in property values – by some estimates homes on the Island could see values rise by as much as 10% as a direct result of creating a world-class Charter school. IV. It will directly benefit parents and children who live on the Island who now have to send their children to schools outside the Island – often at exorbitant cost. V. It will directly benefit community members who have no children in school by providing an added asset in the areas of adult education, distance learning and other facilities currently unavailable on the Island. VI. It will reduce traffic to and from the Island and result in a positive contribution to the problem of greenhouse gases. The school will also provide many other opportunities for the community to express its support for sustainable design and the use of renewable energy. VII. It will utilize the latent potential of the Village which has a population of highly qualified retirees whose vast experience and wisdom can be tapped toward the delivery of world-class education programs at the school 2 VIII. It will increase revenues for the Village because students and parents will now create additional demand for local goods and services with monies that were previously being spent off the Island. IX. It will allow the Village of Key Biscayne --- already well-known as an Island Paradise, to further enhance and update its image – this time for being an educational leader and for creating a world- class school for a fraction of the funds that many other communities spend. Whereas Key Biscayne is relatively well known today, the establishment of this Charter School will raise its profile so that it becomes an International icon for excellence. X. It will become a catalyst for reenergizing the community and building a new community spirit. This will happen by having students participate actively in community service projects while inviting parents and, indeed, the whole community to become actively involved in the important task of educating children. In this manner, the community will build the school but at the same time, the school will build the community. With this submission, FNI’s work on this contract is now officially complete. Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you have any questions. I would like to thank you, Jud and all the residents of Key Biscayne for giving me the opportunity to participate in this exciting and inspiring project. Sincerely, Prakash Nair, REFP President, FNI 1 RESPONSES BY FNI/EDVISIONS TO THE FEB 26th 2009 WORKSHOP QUESTIONS BY THE KEY BISCAYNE COUNCIL REGARDING THE FEASIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A MUNICIPAL CHARTER HIGH SCHOOL IN THE VILLAGE OF KEY BISCAYNE, FLORIDA The following information highlights data that was used by Fielding Nair International and EdVisions to develop the enrollment projections for the proposed Key Biscayne Municipal Charter High School. This document also provides responses to the various budget-related and other issues raised by the Council during the Feb 26, 2009 workshop to discuss the Feasibility Study submitted by FNI/Edvisions. Key Biscayne Youth Population Estimates THE DATA Based on the 2000 Census, the Village of Key Biscayne had 2,697 residents in the 1 – 19 years age range. This youth segment of the population grew by 55% between the 1990 Census and the 2000 Census which equates to an average of 4.39% per year. The total population increased by 19% in the same period, from 8,854 to 10,507, or about 1.9% per year. Key Biscayne 2000 Census Age Group Total Av. / Age % of Tot. Under 5 years 766 192 7% 5 to 9 years 816 163 8% 10 to 14 years 660 132 6% 15 to 19 years 455 91 4% Total 1 - 19 2,697 26% Total population 10,507 The University of Florida reported the total population of the Village to be 11,160 at the end of 2004, producing an average yearly growth rate of 1.65% between 2000 and 2004 (reference 2006 Key Biscayne Master Plan Evaluation and Appraisal Report), or a 13% growth reduction over the 1990 to 2000 period, and suggesting this youth population grew at a reduced rate of 3.82% per year, for a total of 3,133 as of the end of 2004. There are no official population figures available for the 2005 – 2008 period. Although any projections can be challenged, it would be fair to assume that the 2005 growth continued at the same rate as in the 2000 – 2004 period, decelerating in 2006 through 2008. Assuming a 33% annual decelerating between 2005 and 2008, it is estimated that there are approximately 3,428 residents in Key Biscayne in the 1 – 19 age range. Year Children ages 1 - 19 % Growth 2000 Census 2,697 2001 * 2,800 3.82% 2002 * 2,907 3.82% 2003 * 3,018 3.82% 2004 * 3,133 3.82% 2005 3,253 3.82% 2006 3,335 2.52% 2007 3,391 1.66% 2008 3,428 1.10% 2 * Reference: University of Florida and 2007 Key Biscayne Master Plan Evaluation and Appraisal Report. High School Age Students in Key Biscayne In the absence of a Census, the most accurate way of determining the youth population of high school age would be by accounting for the number of children graduating each year from public and private middle schools as it would be expected that these children would continue on to public or private high schools and enroll for the 4 years of high school. Based on available information, we estimate the number of Key Biscayne children of high school age to be somewhere in the 808 to 936 range, or an average of 872. The following 2 scenarios were considered in estimating Key Biscayne youth population of high school age. Scenario 1.- Based on data provided by Miami-Dade County Public Schools (M-DCPS) the average middle school grade has 117 Key Biscayne Children enrolled *. It would be expected that these children graduating from public middle schools would enroll at either public or private schools, suggesting a population of 468 Key Biscayne children in high school age graduating from the middle school grade at M-DCPS public schools. There is anecdotal information based on the various meetings and workshops we have conducted that leads us to conclude that a majority of Key Biscayne residents choose to send their children to private schools. However, even if only half the number of middle school graduates from key Biscayne went to private schools, it would indicate that at least an additional 117 children graduate from private schools each year. That would bring the total number of Key Biscayne children graduating from public and private middle schools at 234 which, in turn suggests that the Key Biscayne population of children of high school age totals about 936. Scenario 2. In addition to the 117 children graduating each year from the middle public school system, a significant number of private middle schools are attended by Key Biscayne Children in their middle years but no hard data is available as to exactly how many children graduate from these private middle schools each year. However, a conservative number of 85 children can be estimated based on feedback from parents of children and children attending these schools. Estimate breakdown is as follows: Belen (6), Carrollton (10), Cushman (2), Gulliver (12); International School (9), Miami Country Dade (4); Palmer Trinity (3), Ransom Everglades (12) and St. Agnes (27) Based on this analysis, we can estimate a total of 808 Key Biscayne residents of high school age ((117+85) x 4). Key Biscayne Charter High School Enrollment Projection Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Grade 2010 - 2011 2011 – 2012 2012 - 2013 2013 - 2014 2014 – 2015 9 75 75 100 100 100 10 50 75 75 100 100 11 50 75 75 100 12 50 75 75 Total 125 200 300 350 375 Student population estimate has been projected based on reported M-DCPS public schools population and considering an average of 117 Key Biscayne children graduating from middle school each year from public middle schools (100 of them from the KB K-8 Center) Year 1 enrollment target could be met with just 62% of middle public school graduates enrolling in the new school. It could also be expected that the 10th grade could enroll 40% of those public school students attending 9th grade at 3 another public school. Enrollment in year 2 was maintained at a conservative number of 75 students in 9th grade, with enrollment increasing to 100 per year for years 3 – 5 as school is in full operation and demonstrates its qualities. School is expected to reach its 400 students capacity in year 6. Enrollment of Key Biscayne residents in Miami-Dade County Public Schools Grade Level 2006 – 2007 2007 – 2008 2008 - 2009 Average per grade EL/MID/HS K 117 110 119 1 125 130 119 2 103 130 144 3 118 110 130 4 117 129 108 Elementary 5 112 123 144 127 6 101 115 121 7 120 111 122 Middle 8 88 122 108 117 9 51 74 79 10 44 51 71 11 37 47 57 High 12 22 28 47 64 Total 1155 1280 1369 % Growth 11% 7% Growth trends Middle School 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 – 2009 2006 - 2008 309 348 351 % Growth 13% 1% 14% High School 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 – 2009 2006 - 2008 154 200 254 % Growth 30% 27% 65% Observations on trends: • A record high of 144 Key Biscayne students will graduate from elementary school this year, the great majority of them (139) from the Key Biscayne K-8 Center. This number of Key Biscayne elementary graduates represents a 17% increase over the previous year and a 29% growth over just 2 years ago. • Enrollment in public high schools increased by 65% in the last 2 school years. Although not accounted for in enrollment projections, some students from the private schools would be expected to be interested in attending the Key Biscayne Charter High School in years 3 and beyond once it is determined to be a well-established school. 4 Total of Key Biscayne students attending MDCPS 2008-09 School Year by school and grade level School Name Grade Level Total for Grade Level By Grade Total by Elem. Mid. HS Average/ grade HENRY S. WEST LABORATORY SCHL K 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER K 118 119 COCONUT GROVE ELEMENTARY 01 1 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 01 3 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 01 115 119 ADA MERRITT K-8 CENTER 02 1 HENRY S. WEST LABORATORY SCHL 02 1 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 02 4 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 02 138 144 ADA MERRITT K-8 CENTER 03 1 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 03 2 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 03 127 130 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 04 7 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 04 101 108 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 05 5 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 05 139 144 Total Elementary Schools Elementary 764 127 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 06 2 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 06 4 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 06 115 121 SOUTH MIAMI MIDDLE SCHOOL 07 1 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 07 5 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 07 7 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 07 109 122 SOUTH MIAMI MIDDLE SCHOOL 08 1 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 08 3 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 08 6 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 08 98 108 Total Middle Schools Middle 351 117 MIAMI PALMETTO SENIOR HIGH 09 1 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 09 2 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 09 4 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 09 4 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 09 8 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 09 9 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 09 51 79 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 10 1 NEW WORLD SCHOOL OF THE ARTS 10 1 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 10 2 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 10 3 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 10 7 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 10 11 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 10 11 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 10 35 71 NEW WORLD SCHOOL OF THE ARTS 11 1 SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED STUDIES WC 11 3 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 11 3 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 11 3 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 11 4 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 11 5 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 11 5 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 11 33 57 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 12 1 MIAMI SENIOR HIGH 12 1 SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED STUDIES WC 12 2 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 12 2 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 12 6 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 12 7 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 12 11 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 12 17 47 Total High Schools High Schools 254 64 Grand Total 1369 5 Draft Budget (For purposes of feasibility analysis only) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 5 Years Students 125 200 300 350 375 Revenue $794,783 $1,303,444 $2,004,045 $2,396,504 $2,631,875 $9,130,652 Total Expenses (excl. facil.) $880,139 $1,368,613 $2,007,847 $2,298,085 $2,529,521 $9,084,205 P&L Operations -$85,356 -$65,169 -$3,802 $98,420 $102,354 $46,446 Grants $250,000 $75,000 $0 $300,000 $0 $625,000 P&L Operations & Grants $164,644 $9,831 -$3,802 $398,420 $102,354 $671,446 Other Potential revenue PTSA $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Private Contributions $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 After school programs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Naming rights $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Other potential revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 5 Years Facility construction * $6,250,000 Start-up $400,000 Planning $300,000 Total loan / bond $6,950,000 Loan amortization $616,900 $616,900 $616,900 $616,900 $616,900 $3,084,500 Maintenance $62,500 $62,500 $62,500 $62,500 $62,500 $312,500 Total $679,400 $679,400 $679,400 $679,400 $679,400 P&L -$514,756 -$669,569 -$683,202 -$280,980 -$577,046 -$2,725,554 Draft Operational budget has been revised based on feedback from workshop. Facilities costs are for the recommended 25,000 sq. ft. facility and its maintenance have been included as a place holder as these numbers may vary substantially. Estimated construction cost of a new facility at $250 per square foot would total approximately $6,250,000. Total capitalization of $6,950,000 includes construction costs, school planning ($300,000) and start-up expenses ($400,000) For reference purpose only, a very conservative 5% increment in real estate property values over the first 6 years of the project will produce an estimated $9,407,257 in additional revenues to the Village, with a Net Present Value of $6,980,032 at 4% discount rate. (See addendum “Potential Impact on Village's real property tax revenue with the implementation of a High School / Lifelong Learning Center”) See detailed budget also attached. 6 Notes: 1.- IB certification fee, teachers training for all teachers and exam fees have been included. Estimate is for 50% of students to pursue the IB diploma. 2.- IB program coordinator / counselor has been added. 3.- Faculty has been updated to incorporate a more traditional curriculum. ESE teachers have been adjusted to reflect 10% allocation of ESE students in revenue calculator. Student to Teacher Rations Maritime & Science Technology Academy (MAST) Design and Architecture Senior HS (DASH) Coral Gables Senior HS (CGSH) Key Biscayne Charter HS (KBCHS) Teachers 36 36 145 19 ESE Teachers 1 1 20 2 Total Teachers 37 37 165 21 Assistant Teachers 0 0 18 7 Guidance Counsel 4 3 9 1.5 Total Faculty 41 40 192 29.5 Students 550 469 3525 375 Students to Teacher 15 13 21 18 Student to faculty 13 12 18 13 Guidance staff include 1 part time Counselor and 1 IB Coordinator / Counselor 4.- One administrator has been added for a total of 2. 5.- Books have been adjusted and included in capital equipment depreciation (3 years life span) 6.- Janitorial services have been included (9 months per school year). 7.- Funding for sports programs have not been included in the budget. Students interested in joining competitive sport can participate in the Coral Gables Senior High sports programs. It would be expected that students would continue to participate in the Village’s sport programs as they do today. 8.- Parents and private contributions have been removed. 9.- Potential sources of funding, such as after-school programs, naming rights, grants from private individuals or foundations have not been included. 10.- Grants allocated to charter schools have been included below the operations P&L line. 11.- Start up expenses have been recalculated. It now includes books for 1st year of operation. Revised estimate is just short of $400,000. 12.- Based on the assumptions made, and just as a place holder, capitalization of facilities, start-up ($400,000) and planning expenses ($300,000) would total $6,950,000, representing an amortization of approximately $616,900 per year in principal and interest on a 15 years term and a 4% interest rate loan / bond. 13.- Facilities maintenance has been estimated at 1% of building cost. Conclusions on budget: We feel confident that school operations (excluding facilities) can be self-funded while providing a high-quality education worthy of Key Biscayne’s expectations. However, and as stated in page 9 of our Feasibility Report, “we 7 assume the debt service coverage for construction will be picked up by the Village, using a similar model as was used for the Community Center.” Furthermore, we are also confident that property appreciation would produce incremental revenue to more than offset loan amortization and maintenance of facilities. In addition, we would expect parent and private contributions, fundraising and naming rights would produce additional revenue to continue enhancing the quality of the school. Per student funding to charter schools is expected to increase under the new administration, with some special funding, such as construction and modernization, going to schools already in operation. The attached spreadsheet can be used to calculate how any potential changes the Village decides to make from this draft budget would affect the funding picture of the school. Additional clarifications to questions brought up by Council and Community Members during workshop: Information Technology: This function is expected to be performed by the students guided by the technology teacher, as done in the EdVisions Schools. Location: Certain locations, such as Calusa Park and Virginia Key, were not considered in the feasibility analysis as these locations are not within the boundaries of Key Biscayne and the Village does not have control over their usage and were not included in the Village’s list of sites to be evaluated. Furthermore, it is our understanding that these locations have been pursued for many years in the past and discarded as not feasible. Parking lot at the Village Hall was not considered as it was not presented as a potential site and is a Miami-Dade owned property. Faculty: Some comments were made about the faculty and staff allocated in the budget. The total number of employees included in budget is 30 for 375 students instead of 15 as stated by a member of the community. Schools at the Center of the Community: There is certainly a national trend to locate schools at the center of communities. There is a significant amount of research that demonstrates how these schools produce benefits in student learning, school effectiveness, family engagement and community vitality. We can affirm that the potential benefits obtained by the community of Key Biscayne will significantly outweigh any drawbacks presented by insufficient parking or other potential challenges of implementing the school within the Civic Center area. As a reference, see report “Schools as Centers of Community: A Citizen's Guide For Planning and Design” sponsored by The National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities (funded by the US Department of Education), KnowledgeWorks Foundation, The Council of Educational Facility Planners, Building Educational Success Together (BEST) and the Coalition for Community Schools with the contribution of leading school and community planners, including my partner Randy Fielding : http://www.edfacilities.org/pubs/pubs_html.cfm?abstract=centers_of_community. Playing fields: There seems to be a perception that a school within Key Biscayne needs to provide additional playing fields, such as soccer, football, basketball, etc. However, the focus of the school should be on education while making use of existing resources within the Island. The school is planned for the children residents of Key Biscayne, and these children are already making use of available resources in the afternoon, evenings and weekends. Some sports, such as beach volleyball or tennis could be promoted. Students seeking competitive sports could enroll in the sports programs at Coral Gables Sr. High School. 8 The school would be a school of choice and would not preempt any student, if so desired, from attending Coral Gables Sr. High School or any other charter or magnet schools in the school district and participate in their sports programs. The school’s operating budget presents a $671,446 surplus which could be used for sports programs. In addition, parents and private contributions could be used for funding other sports programs (golf, rowing, sailing, etc.) not requiring playing fields and with plenty of opportunities to practice these sports. Potential opportunities may exist for agreeing with Miami-Dade County to use fields at Crandon Park, tennis center and possibly the Links golf course. Impact on property values: As stated in our report, there is significant and overwhelming scientific evidence to support the thesis that a quality school has a positive impact on property appreciation and we would expect that Key Biscayne would also benefit from this appreciation. Copies of the following reports were handed out to Council for reference and are attached to this document. USA Today: Location, location, location Better schools mean higher property values Home buyers go shopping for schools. Clemson University: School Quality and Property Values. Ohio State University: The Impact of School Quality on Real House Prices. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Neighborhood School Characteristics: What Signals Quality to Homebuyers? 9 Potential Impact on Village's real property tax revenue with the implementation of a High School / Lifelong Learning Center Estimated Village's Project Approved Construction underway 1st year operation New revenue roll out Value Y 0 Y 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Taxable real property $6,434,727,418 $6,479,127,037 $6,523,970,653 $6,569,262,704 $6,615,007,676 $6,661,210,098 Homestead Property Value (5) 31% $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 Non-Homesteaded Value (5) 69% $4,439,961,918 $4,484,361,538 $4,529,205,153 $4,574,497,205 $4,620,242,177 $4,666,444,598 Total Taxable Value $6,434,727,418 $6,479,127,037 $6,523,970,653 $6,569,262,704 $6,615,007,676 $6,661,210,098 Property Appreciation Non- Homesteaded . 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Homesteaded tax Rev. (3) 3.2 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 Non-Homesteaded Tax Rev, (3) 3.2 $14,207,878 $14,349,957 $14,493,456 $14,638,391 $14,784,775 $14,932,623 Total tax Revenue $20,591,128 $20,733,207 $20,876,706 $21,021,641 $21,168,025 $21,315,872 Incremental tax revenue $2,159,811 $0 $142,079 $285,578 $430,513 $576,897 $724,745 New revenue roll out Value Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y 11 Taxable real property $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 Homestead Property Value (5) 31% $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 Non-Homesteaded Value (5) 69% $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 Total Taxable Value $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 Property Appreciation Non- Homesteaded . 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Homesteaded tax Rev. (3) 3.2 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 Non-Homesteaded Tax Rev, (3) 3.2 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 Total tax Revenue $21,315,872 $21,315,872 $21,315,872 $21,315,872 $21,315,872 $21,315,872 Incremental tax revenue Y6 - 11 $4,348,467 $724,745 $724,745 $724,745 $724,745 $724,745 $724,745 New revenue roll out Value Y 12 Y 13 Y 14 Y 15 Taxable real property $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 Homestead Property Value (5) 31% $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 $1,994,765,500 Non-Homesteaded Value (5) 69% $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 $4,666,444,598 Total Taxable Value $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 $6,661,210,098 Property Appreciation Non- Homesteaded . 0% 0% 0% 0% Homesteaded tax Rev. (3) 3.2 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 $6,383,250 Non-Homesteaded Tax Rev, (3) 3.2 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 $14,932,623 Total tax Revenue $21,315,872 $21,315,872 $21,315,872 $21,315,872 Incremental tax revenue Y12 - 15 $2,898,978 $724,745 $724,745 $724,745 $724,745 Total incremental revenue Years 1 - 15: $9,407,257 Net Present Value of Incremental. Revenue: $6,980,032 10 Key Biscayne Charter High School – DRAFT Budget KBHS enrollment targets: Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Grade 2009 - 2010 2010 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2013 2013 - 2014 9 75 75 100 100 100 10 50 75 75 100 100 11 50 75 75 100 12 50 75 75 Total 125 200 300 350 375 Principal 1 1 1 1 1 Teachers 6 10 15 17 19 Teacher Assistants 2 3 4 4 4 ESE Teachers 1 1 2 2 2 ESE Assistants 1 1 2 2 2 IB Program coordinator 0 1 1 1 1 Total teachers 7 11 17 19 21 Total faculty 11 16 24 26 28 Students/Faculty ratio 11 13 13 13 13 Students / Cert. Teach 18 18 18 18 18 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 FTE Revenue $794,783 $1,303,444 $2,004,045 $2,396,504 $2,631,875 Expenses Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 M-DCPS Admin. Fee $39,739 $65,172 $100,202 $119,825 $131,594 Teachers $282,000 $481,750 $740,691 $860,436 $985,705 ESE Teachers $52,000 $53,300 $109,265 $111,997 $114,797 ESE Teacher Assistants $25,000 $25,625 $52,531 $53,845 $55,191 Principal $95,000 $97,375 $99,809 $102,305 $104,862 Admin. Assistant (2) $60,000 $61,500 $63,038 $64,613 $66,229 Teacher Assistants $50,000 $76,875 $105,063 $107,689 $110,381 IB coordinator / Counselor $0 $51,250 $52,531 $53,845 $55,191 Fringe Benefits $141,000 $211,919 $305,732 $338,682 $373,089 Professional Develp. $4,800 $8,000 $12,000 $13,600 $15,200 Contract Serv. Counselor $12,500 $20,000 $30,000 $35,000 $37,500 Subst. Teachers $14,100 $24,088 $37,035 $43,022 $49,285 Capital / Tech /Books. Amort. $0 $48,510 $116,820 $170,445 $194,370 Class & Office Supplies $14,000 $22,000 $34,000 $38,000 $42,000 IB annual fee $9,100 $9,100 $9,100 IB Diploma test $23,438 $23,438 IB Teacher Cert. $12,000 $6,000 $2,400 $2,400 Janitorial Svcs $27,000 $27,675 $28,367 $29,076 $29,803 Payroll, Accounting $18,000 $18,450 $18,911 $19,384 $19,869 Phone / Comm. $5,000 $6,000 $7,500 $10,000 $11,000 Utilities $12,500 $20,000 $30,000 $35,000 $37,500 Insurance (prop. & Liab.) $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 Ind. Fin. Audit $5,000 $5,125 $5,253 $5,384 $5,519 Other $12,500 $20,000 $30,000 $35,000 $37,500 11 Total Expenses $880,139 $1,368,613 $2,007,847 $2,298,085 $2,529,521 P&L Operations -$85,356 -$65,169 -$3,802 $98,420 $102,354 Grants Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Plan. & Prog. Design $25,000 1st year impl. Grant $225,000 2nd year impl. Grant $75,000 Construction Grant $300,000 Total Grants $250,000 $75,000 $0 $300,000 $0 P&L Operations and grants $164,644 $9,831 -$3,802 $398,420 $102,354 Accumulated P&L Operations and Grants $164,644 $174,475 $170,672 $569,092 $671,446 Other potential revenue (not included in P&L) PTSA & KBEF $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 After School Programs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Capital equipment Startup $0 Class equip. / technol. $0 $112,500 $150,000 $75,000 $37,500 Science labs $0 $10,000 $25,000 $25,000 Books $22,500 $30,000 $52,500 $30,000 Office Equipment $0 $2,000 $2,000 $10,000 $5,000 New Capital equipment $0 $147,000 $207,000 $162,500 $72,500 Value of Capital equipment $0 $147,000 $354,000 $516,500 $589,000 Accumulated - Deprec. $0 $48,510 $165,330 $335,775 $530,145 Budget assumptions: Start up expenses: Pre-opening operating Start up coordinator 6 months $26,664.00 Feb - July Principal - 6 months $57,950.00 Feb - July Teachers - 1 month $33,956.67 Recruitment / Advertisement $15,000.00 Office supplies $5,000.00 Sub-Total operating $138,570.67 Capital equipment Class equip. / technol. $187,500.00 $1,500.00 Science labs $15,000.00 $15,000.00 Office Equipment $20,000.00 Books $37,500.00 $300.00 Per set of grade books Sub-Total Cap. Equip. $260,000.00 Total start up expenses $398,570.67 12 Total of Key Biscayne students attending MDCPS 2007-08 School Year by school and grade level School Name Grade Level Total for Grade Level COCONUT GROVE ELEMENTARY K 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER K 109 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 1 126 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 1 3 HENRY S. WEST LABORATORY SCHL 1 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 2 129 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 2 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 3 102 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 3 8 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 4 125 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 4 4 CORAL WAY K-8 CENTER 5 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 5 117 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 5 5 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 6 101 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 6 8 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 6 6 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 7 98 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 7 7 PONCE DE LEON MIDDLE 7 1 SOUTH MIAMI MIDDLE SCHOOL 7 1 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 7 3 ALTERNATIVE OUTREACH PROGRAM 7 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 8 107 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 8 12 PONCE DE LEON MIDDLE 8 2 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 8 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 9 17 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 9 9 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 9 5 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 9 28 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 9 3 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 9 1 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 9 8 NEW WORLD SCHOOL OF THE ARTS 9 1 ALTERNATIVE OUTREACH PROGRAM 9 1 MERRICK EDUCATIONAL CENTER 9 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 10 3 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 10 3 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 10 4 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 10 32 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 10 1 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 10 5 MIAMI LAKES EDUCATIONAL CENTER 10 1 MIAMI NORTHWESTERN SENIOR HIGH 10 1 NEW WORLD SCHOOL OF THE ARTS 10 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 11 8 LIFE SKILLS CENTER MIAMI-DADE 11 1 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 11 11 SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED STUDIES WC 11 2 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 11 15 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 11 2 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 11 1 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 11 6 MIAMI SENIOR HIGH 11 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 12 6 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 12 4 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 12 11 13 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 12 2 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 12 4 INSTRUCTIONAL SYSTEMWIDE 12 1 Grand Total 1280 Total of Key Biscayne students attending MDCPS 2006-0 School Year by school and grade level School Name Grade Level Total for Grade Level MAYA ANGELOU ELEMENTARY K 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER K 115 ADA MERRITT K-8 CENTER K 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 1 123 ADA MERRITT K-8 CENTER 1 1 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 1 1 COCONUT GROVE ELEMENTARY 2 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 2 95 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 2 7 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER ELEM 3 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 3 112 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 3 5 COMSTOCK ELEMENTARY 4 1 CORAL WAY K-8 CENTER 4 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 4 109 NORTH BEACH ELEMENTARY 4 1 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 4 5 COCONUT GROVE ELEMENTARY 5 2 CORAL GABLES ELEMENTARY 5 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 5 100 SUNSET ELEMENTARY 5 9 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 6 92 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 6 7 SOUTH MIAMI MIDDLE SCHOOL 6 1 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 6 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 7 104 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 7 13 PONCE DE LEON MIDDLE 7 2 ALTERNATIVE OUTREACH PROGRAM 7 1 KEY BISCAYNE K-8 CENTER 8 75 GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER 8 9 CITRUS GROVE MIDDLE SCHOOL 8 1 PONCE DE LEON MIDDLE 8 1 SOUTH MIAMI MIDDLE SCHOOL 8 1 MERRICK EDUCATIONAL CENTER 8 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 9 6 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 9 4 YOUNG WOMEN'S PREPARATORY ACAD 9 1 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 9 33 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 9 4 MIAMI LAKES EDUCATIONAL CENTER 9 1 MIAMI NORTHWESTERN SENIOR HIGH 9 1 NEW WORLD SCHOOL OF THE ARTS 9 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 10 9 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 10 10 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 10 15 DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE SENIOR 10 2 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 10 1 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 10 5 MIAMI SENIOR HIGH 10 1 ALTERNATIVE OUTREACH PROGRAM 10 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES CHARTER 11 6 ACADEMY OF ARTS AND MINDS 11 6 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 11 18 CORAL REEF SENIOR HIGH 11 2 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 11 4 MERRICK EDUCATIONAL CENTER 11 1 14 SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED STUDIES WC 12 1 CORAL GABLES SENIOR HIGH 12 18 MARITIME & SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY 12 2 NEW WORLD SCHOOL OF THE ARTS 12 1 Grand Total 1155 Location, location, location Better schools mean higher property values Home buyers go shopping for schools USA TODAY (pre-1997 Fulltext) - McLean, Va. Author: Del Jones Date: May 15, 1996 Section: MONEY Abstract (Document Summary) An exclusive USA TODAY study finds that in city after city, it's customary for a house to be worth at least 10% more than a comparable house across the street if that street is the boundary line between a highly rated school district and a laggard. In some cases, houses in the best school districts cost almost twice as much as those nearby. Tremendous upheaval is the result. More people are house shopping almost exclusively for the right schools, putting proximity to schools ahead of proximity to work -- even ahead of taxes. That leads to overcrowding at schools with the best reputations, while the halls of others echo half-empty. Throughout the country, homes take weeks or months longer to sell just for being on the wrong side of the boundary. Home builders say they rarely bother breaking ground these days where schools aren't good. Childless house hunters are increasingly asking for houses in quality school districts because of greater appreciation and pride in ownership. Only one-third of households have school-age children. Yet, 80% of house hunters strongly consider schools vs. 50% 20 years ago, according to Weichert Realtors. Location, location, location Better schools mean higher property values Home buyers go shopping for schools The three rules of real estate remain in stone: Location, location, location. But real estate agents, appraisers, home builders and tax authorities overwhelmingly agree that proximity to high-quality schools is now the No. 1 factor in determining what a home is worth in any given market. For instance, two comparable houses in the same Dallas neighborhood were sold five months apart. One went for $155,000, the other for $276,000. The difference? The more expensive house was in the Highland Park public school district where college entrance test scores rank in the top 1% in the country. An exclusive USA TODAY study finds that in city after city, it's customary for a house to be worth at least 10% more than a comparable house across the street if that street is the boundary line between a highly rated school district and a laggard. In some cases, houses in the best school districts cost almost twice as much as those nearby. Tremendous upheaval is the result. More people are house shopping almost exclusively for the right schools, putting proximity to schools ahead of proximity to work -- even ahead of taxes. That leads to overcrowding at schools with the best reputations, while the halls of others echo half-empty. Throughout the country, homes take weeks or months longer to sell just for being on the wrong side of the boundary. Home builders say they rarely bother breaking ground these days where schools aren't good. The great migration puts school boards under constant fire to redraw school district boundaries. And, that makes board members more vulnerable to coercion from real estate developers, builders and angry homeowners with a stake in property. School board meetings have become a ``community bloodletting played out in the public arena,'' says E.E. ``Gene'' Davis, a former school superintendent in Alaska and Virginia, who now prepares boards for the mire of controversy that awaits those attempting boundary changes. Childless house hunters are increasingly asking for houses in quality school districts because of greater appreciation and pride in ownership. Only one-third of households have school-age children. Yet, 80% of house hunters strongly consider schools vs. 50% 20 years ago, according to Weichert Realtors. Obviously, schools have long been important. What's changed is that, to many well-educated baby boom parents, little else matters more than finding the best school to prepare their children for college. Fifteen years ago, the average college graduate earned 50% more than those with high school educations. Today they earn almost twice as much. Baby boomers have lived through a decade of downsizing and want every possible advantage for their children. Many parents are willing to live in high-priced cracker boxes with no closet space to be near good schools, as they do in the 80-year-old neighborhood of Whitefish Bay on the east side of Milwaukee. Where parents used to rely on real estate agents and word-of-mouth to find good schools, now more are demanding hard data: test scores, per-student spending, teacher-student ratios, the percentage of high school graduates to go on to college. Moore Data Management Services, which sells such information to real estate agencies, says demand is up more than 500% in five years. More than 350 large companies, including Allstate Insurance, Honda of America and Johnson & Johnson supply detailed comparative information about schools as part of their relocation packages, Moore says. The information serves to narrow the choices for house hunters to a handful of schools in every city. House hunting winds up tightly focused on neighborhoods surrounding the best public schools, driving up prices in those areas and creating a growing chasm in home values. It also creates tremendous pressure on schools to get test scores up. Employees of prize-winning Stratfiel Elementary School in Fairfield, Conn., are being accused of changing test answers to enhance the school's reputation. There's controversy in Milwaukee, where the school board is accused of releasing good news about improvements, while suppressing bad news. The most dedicated house hunters go beyond test data. They sit in on school classes and interview principals and teachers. Police departments get calls from house hunters looking for the schools with the fewest drug busts. ``I want to see the curriculum, the books and computers,'' says Tracy Migliozzi of Pittsburgh, who is visiting schools while plotting a move to a better district. She has a 5-year-old daughter about to enter kindergarten and an 8-year-old son who will be switching from parochial school. Good-school premium USA TODAY conducted a survey in April, enlisting the help of SchoolMatch, a Westerville, Ohio, company that sells information about the USA's 16,665 public school systems to house hunters and real estate agencies. SchoolMatch suggested cities where a school district with high college entrance test scores and other measures of quality bordered districts with worse performance. USA TODAY then asked real estate agents in those cities to find houses that recently sold along the boundaries. They were told to find houses that were in all other ways comparable, except that they were in different school districts. In Milwaukee, Remax Lakeside Realtor David Delahunt found 16 houses that sold since November 1993 within an area of two square blocks. All had eight rooms, four bedrooms and between 11/2 and 21/2 bathrooms. The eight in Milwaukee School District, where performance on college entrance tests is in the bottom 20% in the nation, sold for an average $170,625. The eight in the Shorewood School District, where performance is in the best 1%, sold for an average $240,563 -- 41% more. ``Visually, in most cases, you won't see a difference (between houses),'' says Steve Lauenstein, a Milwaukee appraiser, ``which really proves that it has to do with schools.'' The value gap might be greater if Milwaukee quit requiring its 8,346 city employees to live in the Milwaukee School District. ``There would be a huge sucking sound when all those people sold at depressed prices,'' Delahunt says. ``I have a brother-in-law who teaches in Milwaukee. His kids went to parochial school. He'd love to live in the outlying area.'' Near Atlanta, 88 new ranch-style homes between 1,500 and 2,000 square feet sold since January in Rockdale County for a median $115,000, or $64.16 per square foot, says Brian Stafford, co-owner of Peachtree Appraisal. In neighboring Newton County, fewer than half that many homes sold for a median $92,450, or $55.95 per square foot. Rockdale SAT scores average 60 points higher. In San Diego, the Poway Unified district has a big word-of-mouth advantage over San Diego Unified district among military transferees. In particular, they shun San Diego's Mira Mesa High School, says Remax agent Ken Davis. The districts are separated by a canyon, but Davis found two 2,000-square-foot houses on either side, both built in 1993 with four bedrooms, 21/2 bathrooms, nice yards and a view of the hills. The one on the Poway side sold in February for $227,000. The one on the San Diego side sold in December for $197,000. In Baltimore, a 67-year-old house on Pinehurst Road just sold for $209,900. But it sits within the Baltimore City Public School System, where college entrance scores are in the bottom 20% nationwide. A 65-year-old house, also on Pinehurst Road, sold for $280,000. Despite the proximity, it's in the Baltimore County Public School district, where scores are in the top 21%. ``They are very similar, less than a block away,'' says Dawn Covahey, corporate sales manager with Coldwell Banker Grempler. Recent academic studies support USA TODAY's findings. Enrollment (kindergarten through 8th grade) in Massachusetts public schools that rank in the state's top 10% by test scores swelled 14% between 1990 and 1994, says Wellesley College real estate economist Karl Case. Based on 1990 census data of children then between the ages of 1 and 9, enrollment at those schools should have gone up just 4%. Meanwhile, enrollment fell 2% at schools testing in the bottom 10%, when it should have risen 13%. ``It's people moving, there's no question,'' Case says. In Ohio, students must pass a proficiency test to graduate high school. Cleveland State University finance professor Michael Bond found that houses sold in 1994 fetched $471 more for every percentage point increase in passing rates at the schools near them. More than 90% of students passed the test at some Cleveland high schools, while barely 20% passed at others. The difference of 70 percentage points, multiplied by $471, means as much as a $33,000 difference in home values. Although test scores strongly mirror parents' income, property values are influenced by test scores even in poorer districts, Bond says. ``We had to use fairly sophisticated techniques to weed out the influence of income,'' he says. ``The evidence is overwhelming. Independent of income, better schools mean higher property values.'' Home buyers, at least those with children, aren't being irrational. Each extra $20,000 paid for a house and financed over 30 years at 8.35% interest adds $1,820 a year to a mortgage payment. Private school can easily cost three times that much -- per child -- and is not tax deductible. For childless households, the right financial decision is less clear. Kathleen Niesen would have had to pay about $255,000 for a comparable house in the Shorewood district bordering Milwaukee. She paid $226,000 in the Milwaukee school district and is happy with her decision. Schools also drive rental rates. Milwaukee landlord Gerald Sobczak says he rents two- and three- bedroom apartments in the Shorewood School District for $500 a month. Similar apartments two blocks away in the Milwaukee district rent for $350 to $400. El Paso Realtor Ed Kot says he could get another $150 a month for a house that he rents for $1,250 if it were a block over in the Polk Elementary district. That rental premium materialized suddenly in 1994 when Polk Elementary won a Texas award for high test scores that was well-publicized locally. When El Paso was building Franklin High School three years ago, Kot says he warned house buyers in writing that school boundaries were subject to change. ``I didn't want to get sued,'' he says. The great migration Parents say they have no regrets about paying more for less house as long as they wind up in the right school district. Schools were the top priority for Alice Li when her family moved to Wayne, N.J., from Pennsylvania 10 years ago. Her daughter Winnie ``was very little, but we knew the district had a talented and gifted program.'' Winnie has scored perfectly three straight years on the national Latin exam, is editor of the school newspaper, will graduate Wayne Valley High with a 4.0 grade point average and will attend Harvard. Victoria and Gerald Sobczak say their deaf son Chris wasn't getting adequate attention in the Milwaukee district. Three years ago they moved a few blocks to a much smaller house in the Shorewood district where the school provides an interpreter, who accompanies Chris to every class. ``We decided we wanted more out of life than just a house,'' Victoria Sobczak says. When Debbie and John Roesner moved from Chicago to Milwaukee, they could have spent $30,000 less on a comparable house three blocks away. But they have two children now reaching school age and willingly paid the difference. Some parents admit that they just stumbled upon good schools. David and Pat Marin had no plans to have children when they were house hunting in the San Francisco area in 1975. They found more house for the money in the Los Altos High School district because it had a worse reputation than others nearby. Then, David Jr. came along, the high school improved markedly and became the public school of choice among Japanese immigrants to the area. The baby grew up to score perfectly on his SATs. The house has appreciated nearly 1,000%, more than area houses near other schools. Meanwile, special property tax laws sharply limit tax increases on some California homes. That acts to limit the supply of houses for sale in the face of higher demand for the school. The result: It's hard to find a modest three-bedroom house for less than $500,000. ``We were really very, very lucky,'' Pat Marin says. 2 Neighborhood School Characteristics: What Signals Quality to Homebuyers? Kathy J. Hayes Research Associate Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Professor of Economics Southern Methodist University Lori L. Taylor Senior Economist and Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas A nalysis suggests that homebuyers and economists share the same definition of school quality. Most people are familiar with the adage that real estate values are determined by three basic characteristics—location, location, location. Economists consider this cliché only a modest exaggeration because research suggests that locational characteristics can explain much of the variation in residential property values. Not surprisingly, home prices tend to be lower in communities with high property taxes and higher in communities with low crime rates. Home prices fall as the commute to the central business district increases and rise as the amount of air pollution decreases. Locations near a city park command a premium, while locations near the city dump sell at a discount. Popular wisdom and economic research suggest that the quality of the neighborhood school should also be an important locational characteristic. Many researchers have found that property values are higher where school spend- ing is higher (for example, Oates 1969; Sonstelie and Portney 1980; and Bradbury, Case, and Mayer 1995). Other researchers have found a positive relationship between housing values and the test performance of students at the corresponding school (for example, Jud and Watts 1981, Rosen and Fullerton 1977, and Walden 1990). How- ever, the economic literature on school quality measurement argues that the appropriate meas- ure of school quality is the school’s marginal effect on students (see Hanushek 1986), and no one has examined the relationship between marginal school effects and housing values.1 Thus, we have an incongruity in the literature: spending and test scores seem to influence prop- erty values, but economists who study schools would not generally consider these characteris- tics measures of school quality. Meanwhile, the literature has been silent on whether the econo- mists’ notion of school quality is a locational characteristic that matters to homebuyers. In this article, we attempt to identify the influence of neighborhood schools on the value of residential homes. Using a hedonic model of home purchases and historical data on homes in the Dallas Independent School District (DISD), we demonstrate that school quality can be an important locational characteristic in determin- ing housing values. We find evidence that prop- erty values in DISD reflect student test scores but not school expenditures. Interestingly, we also find that the relationship between test scores and property values arises from an underlying relationship between property values and the marginal effects of schools. Thus, our analysis suggests that homebuyers and economists share the same definition of school quality. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 3 ECONOMIC REVIEW FOURTH QUARTER 1996 A simple model of housing values A house is a collection of desirable charac- teristics such as shelter, comfort, and location. Therefore, the price that buyers are willing to pay for a house should be related to the prices they are willing to pay for its component charac- teristics. By treating a house as the sum of its parts, a hedonic housing model generates esti- mates of the consumer’s willingness to pay for each component characteristic. Our hedonic model of housing prices in a single labor market is adapted from Rosen (1974). In this simplified model, consumers attempt to maximize their own happiness, taking the hous- ing stock as given. Consumers derive satisfac- tion from consuming all sorts of housing characteristics (Z = z1, z2,....zn ) and a composite good (x). They earn an income (y) regardless of their chosen residence and can only consume combinations of Z and x that are affordable given that income. There are many types of consumers, and tastes for Z and x differ among those consumers according to socioeconomic characteristics (α) such as the person’s age or educational attainment. In equilibrium, all con- sumers with identical preferences and income are able to achieve the same level of satisfaction. After some manipulation, the individual consumer’s decision-making can be described with a willingness-to-pay relationship or, more formally, a bid rent function: (1)R = R (z1,z2....zn:y,α). The value of the bid rent function represents the amount the consumer is willing to pay to rent a home with certain characteristics (Z ), given the consumer’s income level and socioeconomic type. Partial derivatives of the bid rent function with respect to housing characteristics represent the consumer’s willingness to pay for those charac- teristics. The price a potential buyer would be will- ing to pay for a house represents the present discounted value of the after-tax stream of bid rents.2 If τR is the tax rate chosen by the jurisdic- tion for real estate,3 θ represents the discounting factor, and housing is an infinitely lived asset, then the bid price of a house (P ) would be or equivalently, The variation in incomes and socioeconomic characteristics generates a continuum of bid prices over a variety of types of homes. In equilibrium, the sale price of any par- ticular house equals the highest bid offered by potential consumers, regardless of their income or socioeconomic type. The hedonic price func- tion describes this equilibrium.4 The hedonic price function that we estimate describes the arm’s length sales price as a function of the characteristics of the house and of its location.5 The locational characteristics include neighbor- hood characteristics as well as local school char- acteristics. The data Data for this analysis come from three sources. Data on elementary school charac- teristics have been provided by DISD. Data on the characteristics of single-family homes in DISD come from the SREA Market Data Center’s annual publication of residential property transactions. We restrict attention to the 288 DISD properties for which complete data are available that sold in July 1987 and were located in both the city and the county of Dallas. Data on nonschool locational characteristics come from the 1990 Census of Housing and Population. DISD has provided data on student body characteristics, student achievement scores, and per-pupil expenditures for ninety-six elementary schools in its jurisdiction. From these data, we construct four possible indicators of school quality in 1987—current expenditures per pupil (SPEND), average sixth-grade achievement in mathematics on the Iowa Test of Basic Skills (MATH687 ), the marginal effect of the school on sixth-grade mathematics achievement (SCHL687 ), and the expected achievement of the student body in sixth-grade mathematics (PEER687 ). The first two of these indicators are common measures of school quality in the housing literature. The second two indicators represent a decomposi- tion of average mathematics achievement into school effects and peer group effects (see the appendix). SCHL687 measures the increase in student achievement in mathematics that can be attributed to the school. It corresponds to a common measure of school quality in the eco- nomics of education literature (see Hanushek and Taylor 1990, Aitkin and Longford 1986, and Boardman and Murnane 1979). PEER687 is in- cluded as a possible indicator of school quality because research has shown that a high-achiev- ing peer group in the school can have a positive effect on individual student performance (Sum- mers and Wolfe 1977). () ,2 P RPR=−τ θ ()( , .... , ).3 12PRz z z yn=: +R α θτ 4 The housing data used in this analysis in- clude the log of the sale price of the property (PRICE ), the year in which the home was built (YRBUILT ), the number of square feet of living area in the structure (SQFTLA ), and indicator variables that take on the value of one if the house has a swimming pool or a fireplace and zero otherwise (POOL and FIREPL, respectively). To capture potential nonlinearities in the rela- tionship between the sale price and the age of the property, we also include interaction terms that take on the value of YRBUILT when the residence has a pool (YR •POOL ) or fireplace (YR •FIREPL ) and zero otherwise. We match the potential school quality indicators with housing characteristics using the SREA data on addresses and a Realtor’s guide to DISD attendance zones (Positive Parents of Dallas et al. 1987). The address data also permit us to merge in census tract characteristics from the 1990 Census of Housing and Population. The census tract data support three nonschool locational characteristics. These potential locational char- acteristics are the demographic characteristics of the neighborhood residents (NEIGHBORS ),6 the share of apartments in the neighborhood housing stock (APARTMENTS ), and a proxy for the accessibility of private schools (the share of the elementary school population that is attend- ing private school, denoted PRIVSCHL ). Finally, we used the address data to con- struct another nonschool locational characteris- tic—the linear distance to the central business district (DISTANCE )—and to divide the sample into two parts according to whether or not the property is located substantially north of down- town Dallas.7 Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for the data used in this analysis. As the table clearly indicates, there are significant differences be- tween northern and southern Dallas.8 On aver- age, northern Dallas homes are more expensive, bigger, and more likely to have a pool or fire- place. Northern Dallas schools register higher on all our potential indicators of school quality. The average northern Dallas neighborhood has a smaller share of apartments in the housing stock and more access to private elementary schools than the average southern Dallas neigh- borhood. Meanwhile, the residents of southern Dallas neighborhoods are more likely than the residents of northern Dallas to be black or His- Table 1 Descriptive Statistics: A Tale of Two Cities Northern Dallas Southern Dallas Standard Standard Variable Mean deviation Mean deviation PRICE $203,266 (204,301) $82,502 (55,926) SQFTLA 2,192 (1,026) 1,471 (568) YRBUILT 58.3 (13.2) 53.5 (18.7) POOL .22 (.42) .04 (.19) FIREPL .71 (.45) .42 (.50) DISTANCE 2.46 (.65) 2.11 (.86) APARTMENTS .18 (.20) .26 (.23) PRIVSCHL .39 (.21) .10 (.08) NEIGHBORS –1.47 (1.34) 1.59 (1.62) MEDIAN INCOME $52,819 (26,841) $27,256 (7,735) COLLEGE .72 (.15) .40 (.20) BLUE-COLLAR .11 (.09) .31 (.13) UNDER 12 .12 (.03) .18 (.05) OVER 65 .19 (.06) .11 (.04) HISPANIC .10 (.12) .32 (.25) BLACK .03 (.05) .27 (.29) SPEND $2,498 (381) $2,068 (232) MATH687 76.97 (5.27) 69.56 (4.26) SCHL687 29.55 (4.30) 26.86 (3.18) PEER687 47.42 (3.21) 42.70 (3.07) Number of observations 150 138 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 5 ECONOMIC REVIEW FOURTH QUARTER 1996 panic, young, hold a blue-collar job, have a lower income, and to have not attended college. The estimation and results Because southern and northern Dallas dif- fer so dramatically, we estimate the hedonic price function separately for the two areas using weighted least squares regression.9 Furthermore, for comparison with the previous literature, we examine three models of the hedonic price function. In the first model, school quality is measured by per-pupil spending. In the second model, school quality is measured by both per- pupil spending and test scores. In the third model, which represents an unrestricted version of the second model, test scores are decom- posed into school effects and peer group effects. We correct the standard errors from model 3 for the problem of estimated regressors (SCHL687 and PEER687 ), using the technique suggested by Murphy and Topel (1985).10 Table 2 presents our estimation results. Despite the dramatic differences between northern and southern Dallas, Table 2 reveals striking similarities in the consumer’s willingness to pay for housing characteristics. In both parts of the city, homebuyers pay a substantial pre- mium for additional living space. Southern Dal- las buyers tend to be slightly more sensitive to the age of the property, but homebuyers in both parts of the city have strong preferences for newer homes. Fireplaces add value to older homes, but the effect dissipates for newer homes.11 After controlling for the age and size of Table 2 Estimates of the Hedonic Price Function Northern Dallas Southern Dallas Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 INTERCEPT 3.465** 3.123** 3.174** 3.163** 2.865** 2.867** (.334) (.380) (.391) (.341) (.592) (.596) SQFTLA 5.0E–4** 5.0E–4** 5.0E–4** 5.5E–4** 5.4E–4** 5.4E–4** (2.5E–5) (2.5E–5) (2.5E–5) (5.7E–5) (5.8E–5) (5.9E–5) YRBUILT .007* .006* .007* .008** .008** .008** (.004) (.004) (.004) (.002) (.002) (.002) YR •POOL –.004 –.005 –.005 –.022** –.023** –.023** (.003) (.003) (.003) (.011) (.011) (.011) YR •FIREPL –.007* –.007* –.007* –.005 –.005 –.005 (.004) (.004) (.004) (.003) (.003) (.003) POOL .272 .289 .301 1.211** 1.255** 1.258** (.202) (.201) (.202) (.571) (.577) (.581) FIREPL .448** .433** .441** .431** .419** .420** (.205) (.203) (.204) (.204) (.205) (.206) DISTANCE –.122** –.146** –.146** –.137** –.139** –.138** (.039) (.041) (.041) (.034) (.034) (.036) APARTMENTS .018 .007 .006 .074 .089 .088 (.092) (.092) (.092) (.121) (.123) (.124) PRIVSCHL .450** .431** .435** 1.073** 1.078** 1.075** (.142) (.141) (.141) (.515) (.516) (.520) NEIGHBORS –.055** –.042* –.039* –.042 –.041 –.041 (.023) (.024) (.024) (.029) (.029) (.030) SPEND 3.3E–5 –7.8E–6 1.7E–5 –8.6E–6 –4.1E–6 –2.4E–6 (7.0E–5) (7.3E–5) (8.3E–5) (1.2E–4) (1.2E–4) (1.3E–4) MATH687 — .007* — — .004 — — (.004) — — (.007) — SCHL687 — — .009* — — .005 — — (.005) — — (.009) PEER687 — — .004 — — .004 — — (.007) — — (.009) Number of observations 150 138 NOTE: Standard errors are in parentheses. The superscripts denote a coefficient that is significant at the 5-percent (**) or 10-percent (*) level. 6 the property and the presence of a fireplace, pools have a negligible effect on home prices.12 Northern and southern Dallas homebuyers are also similar in their willingness to pay for most nonschool locational characteristics. In both parts of the city, homebuyers are unwilling to pay for a change in the concentration of apartments (APARTMENTS ) but are willing to pay for a shorter commute (DISTANCE ) and greater access to private schools (PRIVSCHL ). Furthermore, northern and southern Dallas home- buyers pay similar premiums for a shorter commute or greater access. Evaluated at the mean, a 1-percent decrease in the distance to the city center increases home prices by 0.36 percent in northern Dallas and 0.29 percent in southern Dallas, while a 1-percent increase in PRIVSCHL increases home prices by 0.17 percent in northern Dallas and 0.11 percent in southern Dallas.13 Northern and southern Dallas homebuyers differ substantially in their willingness to pay for neighborhood demo- graphics, however. Northern Dallas buyers seem willing to pay a premium for a change in resident characteristics, while southern Dallas buyers do not. Another significant difference between northern and southern Dallas homebuyers ap- pears in their willingness to pay for school qual- ity. The data suggest that neither group considers school spending an indicator of school quality for which they are willing to pay. SPEND is insignificant across all of the model specifica- tions for both northern and southern Dallas. However, the data indicate substantial differ- ences in the willingness to pay for student achievement on standardized tests. As model 2 illustrates, homebuyers in northern Dallas pay a premium to live in the attendance zone of a school where students score well on standard- ized tests. Homebuyers in southern Dallas pay no such premium. Given the desegregation efforts during the sample period, it is not particularly surpris- ing that southern Dallas homebuyers were un- willing to pay a premium for the neighborhood schools.14 Busing students away from the neigh- borhood school was much more common in southern Dallas than in northern Dallas (Linden 1995). Therefore, while homebuyers might have been able to rely on the attendance zone map in northern Dallas, they had less reason to expect that their choice of residence would guarantee a specific school in southern Dallas. Given the uncertainty about the stability of school atten- dance zones, it is more surprising that northern Dallas homebuyers were willing to pay a pre- mium for school quality than that southern Dallas homebuyers were unwilling to pay such a premium. One might suspect that northern Dallas homebuyers are willing to pay for school zones with good test scores because those scores indi- cate characteristics of the students who live in the area. If so, then the premium for test perfor- mance would arise from the attractiveness of the neighbors rather than the neighborhood school. However, as model 3 illustrates, the test score premium in northern Dallas arises from the mar- ginal effects of the schools (SCHL687 ), not the characteristics of the student body (PEER687 ).15 Evaluated at the mean, a 1-percent increase in SCHL687 increases home prices by 0.26 percent. Of the characteristics that we are able to ob- serve, only the size and age of the property and the distance from downtown have more influ- ence than school effects on home prices in northern Dallas. Conclusions Using a hedonic model of property values, we examine the extent to which school quality is a locational characteristic that influences property values. We find that some home- buyers are not only cognizant of differences in school quality but also have revealed their preferences for higher quality schools by pay- ing a premium for their home. Our analysis suggests that this premium for school quality can be among the most important determinants of housing prices. Not all school characteristics appear to be indicators of school quality, however. We find no evidence that homebuyers are willing to pay for changes in school expenditures or student body characteristics. Instead, we find evidence that the school characteristic for which home- buyers pay a premium is the same characteristic that economists associate with school quality, namely, the marginal effect of the school on student performance. A number of policy implications can be drawn from this research. The analysis suggests that policies that impact school effects can have a significant influence on residential property values. It also casts considerable doubt on policy analyses or policy initiatives that equate school spending with school quality. Finally, the analy- sis suggests that, at least as far as Dallas home- buyers are concerned, researchers are on target in trying to identify policy reforms that would increase the marginal effectiveness of schools. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 7 ECONOMIC REVIEW FOURTH QUARTER 1996 Notes We would like to thank Rebecca Bergstrasser, Stephen P. A. Brown, Thomas Fomby, Donna Ginther, Shawna Grosskopf, Joe Hirschberg, and Jim Murdoch for helpful comments and suggestions; Kelly A. George for research assistance; and the Dallas Independent School District for making its data available. Any remaining errors are our own. 1 A few researchers, including Sonstelie and Portney (1980), have examined the relationship between property values and changes in test scores, but test score changes are generally considered a poor proxy for the marginal effects of schools. 2 This discussion ignores the differential tax treatment of renters and owners. 3 If assessment errors are randomly distributed, then all residences in a given government jurisdiction are taxed at the same expected rate. Restricting analysis to a single taxing jurisdiction eliminates the need to measure the potential capitalization of tax rate differen- tials and one can focus on estimating the hedonic price function for housing characteristics (Z ). 4 For a further discussion of the hedonic price function, see Bartik and Smith (1987). 5 An arm’s-length sales price can be considered an equilibrium house price for that time and location. 6 NEIGHBORS is a principal components index of resi- dent characteristics. The demographic characteristics included in the index are median income of the census tract and the shares of the population that are black, Hispanic, over 65 years of age, under 12 years of age, employed in a blue-collar occupation, and college educated. The principal components index explains 65 percent of the variation in these variables. The index is negatively correlated with median income and the population shares of elderly and college educated individuals and positively correlated with the remaining demographic characteristics. 7 Residences north of a line along the southern border of Highland Park Independent School District were classified as being in northern Dallas. The remaining residences were classified as being in southern Dallas. 8 The means are significantly different at the 5-percent level for all of the characteristics. 9 The weight for northern Dallas is the reciprocal of the product of the square root of (SQFTLA) and the square root of (1 – PRIVSCHL); the weight for southern Dallas is the reciprocal of the product of the square root of (1/YRBUILT ) and the square root of (1 – PRIVSCHL). Given these weights, the residuals are normally dis- tributed and a Breusch–Pagan test can no longer detect heteroskedasticity at the 5-percent level of significance in either sample. 10 The Murphy–Topel error correction involves using the variance–covariance matrix of the first-stage estimation to inflate the standard errors that are used in hypothe- sis testing in the second stage. Parameter estimates are unaffected by the correction. Specifically, one tests hypotheses using the variance–covariance matrix ∑^ corrected = ∑^ uncorrected + (Z ′Z )–1Z ′F *V^(θ^)F *′Z (Z ′Z )–1, where Z is the matrix of second-stage regressors, F * is a matrix of first-stage derivatives that is weighted by the estimated coefficients on the generated regressors from the second stage, and V^(θ^) is the variance– covariance matrix from the first-stage regression. Murphy and Topel demonstrate that the second term in the above equation is a positive definite matrix. 11 It is unlikely that fireplaces, in and of themselves, have such large effects on property values. Rather, fire- places likely proxy for other desirable home character- istics that we cannot observe in the data. 12 Pools appear to add value in southern Dallas, but the effect may be spurious because only five southern Dallas homes in our sample have pools. 13 These estimates come from model 3. 14 Of course, there are other possible explanations for not finding a relationship between school quality measures and property values in southern Dallas. 15 Omitting the potentially collinear NEIGHBORS from the estimation does not alter this result. 8 References Aitkin, M., and N. Longford (1986), “Statistical Modeling Issues in School Effectiveness Studies,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A 149, pt. 1: 1–26. Bartik, Timothy J., and V. Kerry Smith (1987), “Urban Amenities and Public Policy,” in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, ed. Edwin S. Mills (Amsterdam: North Holland Press). Boardman, Anthony E., and Richard J. Murnane (1979), “Using Panel Data to Improve Estimates of the Determi- nants of Educational Achievement,” Sociology of Educa- tion 52 (April): 113–21. Bradbury, Katherine L., Karl E. Case, and Christopher J. Mayer (1995), “School Quality, Local Budgets, and Property Values: A Re-Examination of Capitalization,” manuscript. Hanushek, Eric A. (1986), “The Economics of Schooling: Production and Efficiency in Public Schools,” Journal of Economic Literature 24 (September): 1,141–76. ——— , and Lori L. Taylor (1990), “Alternative Assess- ments of the Performance of Schools,” Journal of Human Resources 25 (Spring):179–201. Jud, G. Donald, and James M. Watts (1981), “Schools and Housing Values,” Land Economics 57 (August): 459–70. Linden, Glenn M. (1995), Desegregating Schools in Dallas: Four Decades in the Federal Courts (Dallas: Three Forks Press). Murphy, Kevin M., and Robert H. Topel (1985), “Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 3 (October): 370–79. Oates, Wallace E. (1969), “The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Spending on Property Values: An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tiebout Hypothesis,” Journal of Political Economy 77 (November/December): 957–71. Positive Parents of Dallas, Dallas Chamber of Commerce, and Dallas Independent School District (1987), All About DISD. Rosen, Harvey S., and David J. Fullerton (1977), “A Note on Local Tax Rates, Public Benefit Levels, and Property Values,” Journal of Political Economy 85 (April): 433–40. Rosen, Sherwin (1974), “Hedonic Prices and Implicit Mar- kets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition,” Journal of Political Economy 82 (January/February): 34–55. Sonstelie, Jon C., and Paul R. Portney (1980), “Gross Rents and Market Values: Testing the Implications of Tiebout’s Hypothesis,” Journal of Urban Economics 7 (January): 102–18. SREA Market Center Data Inc. (1987), North Texas Annual 1987 (Atlanta: Damar Corp.). Summers, Anita A., and Barbara L. Wolfe (1977), “Do Schools Make a Difference?” American Economic Review 67 (September): 639–52. Walden, Michael L. (1990), “Magnet Schools and the Differential Impact of School Quality on Residential Property Values,” Journal of Real Estate Research 5 (Summer): 221–30. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS 9 ECONOMIC REVIEW FOURTH QUARTER 1996 We decompose average test scores into school effects and peer group effects, following the methodology outlined in Hanushek and Taylor (1990). Thus, we hypothesize that student achieve- ment in period T is a function of the student’s complete history of school (S ) and student and family (F ) characteristics. However, because the relationship is recursive, we can write where AiT is the achievement of student i in period T, the SikT are dummy variables that equal one if the i th student attends school k in period T and equal zero otherwise, and FiT represents student and family characteristics in period T. In this formulation, qkT represents the value added by school k in period T and represents the level of student achievement that could be expected regardless of the school attended. Thus, qkT is a measure of school effects, and the average A^ iT for each school is a meas- ure of peer group effects in that school. Whenever student-level data are unavail- able and the marginal effects of schools are inde- pendent of the student and family characteristics, equation A.1 can be estimated at the school level as In this equation, AkT is average student achieve- ment at school k in period T, FkT represents average student and family characteristics at school k in period T, γ + µkT = qkT + εkT , and εkT represents the average estimation error for stu- dents at school k in period T. At this level of aggregation, γ + µkT is the best available proxy for school effects, and PkT = λ~ AkT–1 + β~ T FkT is the best available proxy for peer group effects. Be- cause analysis at the school level incorporates error into the estimates of school and peer group effects, it is particularly important to treat these Appendix variables as estimated regressors in any subse- quent analysis. DISD provided data on student body charac- teristics and student achievement scores for ninety- six primary schools in its jurisdiction for the years 1986 and 1987. The student body characteristics used in the analysis are the percentage of students who were black or Hispanic (B&HISP ) and the percentage of students who were not receiving free or reduced-price lunches (the best available proxy for socioeconomic status, SES ). The student achievement data used in the analysis are average scores on the Iowa Test of Basic Skills in mathe- matics. We use sixth-grade scores from 1987 (MATH687 ) and fifth-grade scores from 1986 (MATH586 ) as the measures of student achieve- ment. The variable XCOHORT (the percentage increase in the number of students taking the exam) controls for changes in cohort size between 1986 and 1987. From these data and the estimated coeffi- cients in Table A.1, we construct measures of school and peer group effects for each of the ninety-six schools in our study. Thus, for each school, SCHL687k = 26.767 + µkT , and PEER687k = 0.740 •MATH586k – 0.083 •XCOHORTk – 0.004 •B&HISPk + 0.004 •SESk . Table A.1 Estimating School and Peer Group Effects on Sixth-Grade Mathematics Achievement Parameter Standard estimate error INTERCEPT 26.767 6.301 MATH586 .740 .092 XCOHORT –.083 .017 B&HISP –.004 .002 SES .004 .021 Number of observations 96 R 2 .544 (.) ,A1 1 1 AA F qSiT iT T iT kT k ikT iT =++ +− = ∑λβ (.)ˆA2 1AA FiT iT T iT =+−λβ (.)˜˜.A3 1AAFkT kT T kT kT =+ + +−γλ β µ Working Paper WP 040203 April 2003 School Quality and Property Values In Greenville, South Carolina Kwame Owusu-Edusei and Molly Espey Clemson University Public Service Activities South Carolina Agriculture and Forestry Research Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics Clemson University Clemson, South Carolina 29634 Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics WP 040203 April 2003 School Quality and Property Values In Greenville, South Carolina Kwame Owusu-Edusei*, Department of Ag & Applied Economics Clemson University Clemson, SC 29634-0355 Molly Espey Department of Ag & Applied Economics Clemson University 263 Barre Hall Clemson University Clemson, SC 29634-0355 mespey@clemson.edu *Graduate Student and Associate Professor, respectively , Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Clemson University, Clemson, SC. Working Papers are not subject to review within the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics. Copyright 2003 by Kwame Owusu-Edusei and Molly Espey. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appe ars on all such copies. School Quality and Property Values in Greenville, South Carolina Abstract This study estimates the impact of school quality on property values within the city limits of Greenville, South Carolina. This study differs from others in its use of a relative, rather that an absolute measure of school quality. We apply a hedonic pricing model to estimate the impact of K-12 rankings on the real constant-quality housing values. Based on 3,731 housing transactions carried out from 1994 to 2000, our results suggest that those who choose to live within the city limits of the study pay a premium to live in high quality school attendance areas. Therefore, high-ranked schools have values capitalized into single-family house prices. Further, greater distance to assigned K-12 schools has a negative impact on the value of the property. Introduction Just as there are various factors that compel people to relocate, the same or other factors may account for where they eventually choose to go. The decision to move in or out of a community is affected by the availability and quality of amenities in the area. The presence or absence of certain neighborhood characteristics may encourage or discourage such movements. Proximity to and quality of Public schools are examples of infrastructure amenities that may influence locational decisions. Education is very important in the development of a society and every parent wants to give the best they can offer to their kids. Therefore the ability of schools to offer these services in a better and easier way is relevant to many households. This study estimates how much people are willing to pay for better schools and reduced commuting time to those schools through analysis of residential property values. The next section discusses previous hedonic studies of school quality. Then the data and model used in this analysis are presented followed by our empirical results. Previous works Some studies have looked at proximity to schools and how they affect the value of single- family homes. Others have probed further and investigated whether quality of the school matters. Clotfelter (1975) used data from published census tract statistics for the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) of Atlanta for the years 1960 and 1970. Clotfelter found that for an average increase of 13.6 percent in the proportion of African Americans in schools, price of the average house declined by 6 to 7 percent. He concluded that during that decade, housing values fell where high schools experienced greater desegregation relative to areas where less desegregation took place. Jud and Watts (1981) studied the effects of school quality and racial composition on house values using data for single-family houses within the city of Charlotte, North Carolina for 1977. Jud and Watts found that the quality (as measured by the average grade point) of school is an important determinant of housing values. They found that a one grade point increase in average student achievement test results in a 5.2 to 6.2 percent increase in the value of an average house. They also concluded that the failure to account for school quality could result in an overestimation of the negative effect of the racial component (percent black population in the neighborhood). Brasington and Haurin (1996) used data from Ohia (Ameristate, 1991) for single-family detached dwellings to investigate the variations in real constant -quality house prices in a hedonic price framework. Their sample size was 45,236 from 140 school districts, wit h over a third from the central cities of six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). They also found that school quality (measured as the pass rate) is the most important cause of the real constant-quality house price variation. Each percentage point increase in the pass rate increased house value by $400, one -half percent of mean house value for that data set. Hayes and Taylor (1996) used 1987 data on single-family homes in Dallas Independent School District (DISD), using a variety of school quality measures. Indicators of school quality were current expenditure per pupil (SPEND), average sixth-grade achievement in mathematics (MATH687), the marginal effect of the school on sixth-grade mathematics achievement (SCHL687), and the expected achievement of the student body in sixth-grade mathematics (PEER687). Only SCHL687 was found to be significant, increasing home sale by 0.26 percent for every 1 percent increase. They concluded that while homebuyers may not be responsive to average measures of quality, they are responsive to quality measured as the marginal effect of the school on the students’ performance. Brasington (1999) also investigated a variety of measures of school quality in a study of housing transactions from the six largest metropolitan areas in Ohio. Proficiency tests, expenditure per pupil, and student-to-teacher ratio were found to have positive effects on the value of houses. Average teacher salary and student attendance rates were sensitive to the changes in statistical technique used. Value added (changes in student performance) was found to have no significant effect on the price of properties, while the peer group effect had a positive and significant effect on the value of an average house. Brasington concluded that parents do not appear to choose schooling based on student improvements, but rather on the socio -demographic characteristics. Brasington (2000) investigated the role of private schools in the housing market and estimated the demand and supply of public schools using the same data set for single-family detached dwellings. A hedonic model was used to estimate an implicit price for the quality of both private and public schools, which was then incorporated into a three-stage Least square model to estimate school demand and supply. The own-price elasticity of demand was estimated to be –0.19, tax elasticity of demand –0.49 and the income elasticity of demand 0.42. The price elasticity of supply on the other hand was found to be 0.014. The cross-price elasticity between public school and private schools was 0.11. Based on his findings, he concluded that the quantity of public-school quality supplied is almost completely unresponsive to changes in the rate of capitalization of public-school quality into house price in Ohio’s metropolit an areas. The cross- price elasticity estimated led him to conclude that demand for public-school quality is not very responsive to changes in the implicit price of private school quality. Bogart and Cromwell (2000) studied the effect of school redistricting on house values in Shaker Heights, Ohio in 1987. They showed that the disruption of neighborhood schools reduced house values by about 9.9 percent, all else equal. They also found that providing transportation services increased house values by about 2.6 percent. The above-mentioned studies have used different types of measures of school quality. There is no consensus on the best measure of school quality. This is primarily because these measures tend to give different signals that are sometimes difficult to interpret. This study uses a much more comprehensive relative measure that is based on all the different quality indicators cited above. Data Sales data for single-family homes between 1994 and 2000 was obtained from the Greenville County property office. The data contains price as well as housing characteristics such as location (address), number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, house square footage, lot size for lots over one acre, whether or not the house has air conditioning and whether or not the house has a garage. The database also includes a depreciation factor used to assess effective house age, taking into account both actual age and the condition of the house. This variable has a maximum value of 100 for a new house. Parks are categorized into four groups based on size and the amenities available on them (see Espey and Owusu-Edusei 2001). GIS Data (shapefile) on school and attendance areas within Greenville city was obtained from the School District of Greenville County. School absolute ratings over a four -year period is obtained from the Greenville District web site (http://www.myscschools.com/). The ratings are Unsatisfactory (U), Below Average (B), Average (A), Good (G) and Excellent (E). Distance from the center of each attendance area to assigned schools (elementary, middle and high) are computed. This gives the average distance to the school. Houses are mapped out on the Greenville city map using GIS software package. The attendance area map is overlaid with the house maps to identify houses found within each attendance area. Buffers are also created at 100 feet intervals around parks and a golf course. Houses are assigned ranges based on the buffer they fall in. Map of Houses is also overlaid on the Census block map, enabling assignment of neighborhood characteristics contained in the census block data. The census block data includes number of housing units, median household income, average household size and median household value. The number of housing units is divided by the total census block area to obtain a measure of housing unit density within a block. Model A hedonic housing price technique is used to model the price of a house as a function of the characteristics of a house as follows: Pi = f(Si, Ni, Ei, Ri ) where Pi is the log of price of a given house, Si is a vector of structural characteristics including condition (DEPR) with a higher value indicating better condition, the number of baths (BATH), square footage of the house (SQFT), air conditioning (AC), lot size, and whether or not the house has a garage (GARAGE). AC, GARAGE, and two lot size variables are 0-1 dummy variables while the others are continuous variables. Ni is a vector of census block characteristics and Ei is a vector of dummies for proximity to parks, a golf course and schools. Ri is a vector of dummies for school rank categories. This study uses ordinary least squares estimation of a semi-log model, the structural form found to produce the best results in previous hedonic studies. Definitions and descr iptive statistics of variables in the regression models are reported in table 1. Definitions and number of observations within all categories of open space proximities are also reported in tables 2 and 3. Results and discussion Table 4 shows regression results for four models using Ordinary Least Squares. Two ranges are delineated for golf course, three for park type 1 and two for types 2, 3 and 4 each. All housing and demographic characteristics had the expected signs. Annual dummies were included to control for any year-specific differences in prices after deflating all into 1990 dollars using monthly consumer price index. Prices are 3 percent higher between the months of April and September. Assigned elementary schools within 2640 feet (quarter of a mile) were 18 percent higher than those beyond 10560 feet (two miles). Schools between 2640 and 5280 feet were 17 percent higher than those beyond 10560 feet. Schools between 5280 and 10560 feet were 7 percent higher in value. Assigned middle schools within 10560 feet sold for 16 percent higher than those beyond 10560 feet range. Assigned high schools within 10560 feet sold for 12 percent higher than those beyond 10560 feet range. Unsatisfactory and Below Average ratings were left in the intercept. If the assigned elementary school has an Average rating, there is no significant difference in the value of the house. If it is Good, it sold for 12 percent higher and 10 percent higher if it is Excellent. For middle schools, if the school is Average, it sold for 31 percent higher and 23 percent if it is Above Average. House prices in attendance areas with high schools that are Average are not significantly different from those Below Average. However those rated Above Average are 12 percent higher in value than those below average. Finally, if the house is within an attendance area with all K-12 rated Average and Above, the value is 19 percent higher than the attendance areas with Below Average schools. Conclusion This study has used another measure of school quality (school rankings), which is relevant in making a choice between school attendance areas for those who choose to live within the city limits of Greenville, South Carolina. It has been found that attendance areas with higher school ratings have higher property values, all else constant. Also, distance to the assigned schools has a negative impact on the value of the property. In general, golf course and parks have positive impact on property values. Such information could be useful to developers deciding whether or not to include schools, parks or golf courses in new subdivisions. It could also help city planners and school districts determine potential tax revenue benefits that could accrue to the city if the relative quality of schools were to increase. De mographic information obtained from census tract data could help determine the relationship between demographic characteristics and the purchase of housing near schools, golf courses and neighborhood parks. References: Bogart, William T. and Brian A. Cro mwell. “How Much is a Neighborhood School Worth?” Journal of Urban Economics 47: 280-305. Brasington, David M. 1999. “Which Measures of School Quality Does the Housing Market Value?” Journal of Real Estate Research 18: 395-413. Brasington, David M. 2000. “Demand and Supply of Public School Quality in Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Private Schools.” Journal of Regional Science 40:583-605. Clotfelter, Charles T. 1975. “The Effects of School Desegregation on Housing Prices.” Review of Economics and Statistics 57 (Nov.): 446-51. Espey, M. and Owusu-Edusei, K(2001). "Neighborhood Parks and Residential Property Values in Greenville, South Carolina", Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 33(3): 487-492. Haurin, Donald R. and David Brasington. 1996. “Sc hool Quality and Real House Price: Intra-and Interjurisdictional Effects,” Journal of Housing Economics 5: 351-368. Hayes, Kathy J. and Lori L. Taylor. 1996. “Neighborhood School Characteristics: What Signals Quality to Homebuyers?” Federal Reser ve Bank of Dallas Economic Review. Jud, G. D. and Watts, J. M. 1981. “ Schools and Housing Values,” Land Economics 57: 459-70. Table 1: Summary Statistics for Housing Characteristics (n = 3731) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum # of observations=1 for dummy variables Quality # of Bathrooms Square footage Air conditioning Garage 1 to 4 acres Over 4 acres April – September sales # Sold in 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 80 1.68 1459.25 0.44 0.13 0.03 0.02 0.56 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.07 13.6 0.74 612.26 0.50 0.34 0.19 0.14 0.5 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.25 5 0.2 240 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 7 6276 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2349 710 192 107 2986 522 522 597 597 634 597 261 Table 2: Proximity Measures by Type of Amenity Open space type Proximity Number of houses in range Golf course 1 Golf course 2 Park Type 1: Small basic Park Type 2: Sm all attractive Park Type 3: Medium attractive Park Type 4: Medium basic Schools Elementary school Middle school High school Abutting 300 – 1100 feet Within 300 feet 300 – 500 feet 500 – 1500 feet Within 600 feet 600 – 1500 feet Within 200 fe et 200 – 1500 feet Within 600 feet 600 – 1200 feet Within half mile (2640 feet) Half mile to one mile (2640 – 5280 feet) One mile to two miles (5280 – 10560 feet) Within two miles (10560 feet) Within two miles (10560 feet) 16 78 31 100 481 132 287 5 13 81 441 1242 1227 889 3194 2316 Table 3: School Rank Categories School Rank # of houses in rank Elementary schools: Middle schools: High schools: All schools Below average Average Good Excellent Below average Average Above average Below average Average Above average Below average Average and Above average 97 1083 1367 1230 171 1958 1648 109 507 3161 268 3509 Table 4: Estimation results: dependent variable log of Price (n = 3731) Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Intercept Quality Quality squared # of Bathrooms Square footage Square footage squared Air conditioning Garage 1 to 4 acres Over 4 acres April – September sales Annual dummies 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Abutting golf course 300 – 1100 f eet of golf course Within 300 feet of type 1 300 – 500 feet from type 1 500 – 1500 feet from type 1 Within 600 feet from type 2 600 – 1500 feet from type 2 Within 200 feet from type 3 200 – 1500 feet from type 3 Within 600 feet from type 4 600 – 1200 f eet from type 4 Schools Elementary: within 2640 feet 2640 – 5280 feet 5280 – 10560 feet Middle: within 10560 feet High: within 10560 feet Rank categories: Elementary Average Good Excellent Middle Average Above average High Average Above average All Above average Neighborhood Characteristics: Housing unit density Average household size Median value Adjusted R-square 2.28* (0.13) 0.06* (0.003) -0.00033* (0.00002) 0.22* (0.013) 0.0009* (0.00004) -1.14E-7* (8.95E-9) 0.036** (0.015) 0.054* (0.022) 0.079* (0.034) 0.1* (0.047) 0.03** (0.013) 0.003 (0.024) 0.06* (0.023) 0.1* (0.023) 0.15* (0.023) 0.22* (0.023) 0.22* (0.03) 0.23* (0.1) 0.13* (0.06) -0.18** (0.08) 0.016 (0.04) -0.04 (0.02) 0.13* (0.05) 0.07* (0.03) 0.2* (0.06) 0.01 (0.02) -0.45* (0.18) -0.23* (0.12) 0.18* (0.03) 0.17* (0.03) 0.07* (0.03) 0.01 (0.05) 0.12* (0.05) 0.1* (0.05) -0.0002* (0.000012) -0.11* (0.02) 2.5E-6* (2.88E -7) 0.70 2.27* (0.13) 0.05* (0.003) -0.00033* (0.00002) 0.22* (0.013) 0.0009* (0.00004) -1.14E-7* (8.95E-9) 0.036** (0.015) 0.054* (0.022) 0.09* (0.034) 0.13* (0.046) 0.03** (0.013) 0.003 (0.024) 0.06* (0.023) 0.1* (0.023) 0.15* (0.023) 0.21* (0.023) 0.21* (0.03) 0.25* (0.1) 0.15* (0.05) -0.18** (0.08) 0.016 (0.04) -0.04 (0.02) 0.13* (0.05) 0.07* (0.03) 0.2* (0.06) 0.01 (0.02) -0.40* (0.18) -0.22* (0.12) 0.16* (0.02) 0.31* (0.04) 0.23* (0.04) -0.0002* (0.000013) -0.1* (0.02) 2.5E-6* (2.66E -7) 0.71 2.23* (0.13) 0.06* (0.003) -0.00033* (0.00002) 0.22* (0.013) 0.0009* (0.00004) -1.14E-7* (8.95E-9) 0.036** (0.015) 0.054* (0.022) 0.079* (0.034) 0.1* (0.047) 0.03** (0.013) 0.003 (0.024) 0.06* (0.023) 0.1* (0.023) 0.15* (0.023) 0.21* (0.023) 0.21* (0.03) 0.25* (0.1) 0.15* (0.06) -0.13** (0.08) 0.07 (0.04) 0.01 (0.02) 0.16* (0.05) 0.12* (0.03) 0.18* (0.05) 0.001 (0.02) -0.46* (0.18) -0.26* (0.11) 0.12* (0.01) 0.09 (0.05) 0.12* (0.05) -0.0002* (0.000012) -0.11* (0.02) 2.5E-6* (2.88E -7) 0.71 2.09* (0.13) 0.06* (0.003) -0.00033* (0.00002) 0.22* (0.013) 0.0009* (0.00004) -1.14E-7* (8.95E-9) 0.036** (0.015) 0.054* (0.022) 0.079* (0.034) 0.1* (0.047) 0.03** (0.013) 0.003 (0.024) 0.06* (0.023) 0.1* (0.023) 0.15* (0.023) 0.22* (0.023) 0.22* (0.03) 0.27* (0.1) 0.18* (0.05) -0.14** (0.08) 0.042 (0.04) -0.01 (0.02) 0.17* (0.05) 0.11* (0.03) 0.19* (0.05) 0.01 (0.02) -0.37* (0.17) -0.17* (0.11) 0.16* (0.03) 0.14* (0.03) 0.10* (0.03) 0.18* (0.02) 0.11* (0.01) 0.19* (0.03) -0.0002* (0.000012) -0.11* (0.02) 2.5E-6* (2.88E -7) 0.71 Standard errors are in parentheses. Significance levels *** = .1, ** = .05, * = .01. SOUTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY RESEARCH CLEMSON UNIVERSITY, CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA JAMES R. FISCHER, DEAN/ DIRECTOR South Carolina Agriculture and Forestry Research is a cooperative program funded from federal and state funds. Programs of SCAFR in cooperation with South Carolina State University and the U.S. Department of Agriculture are offered to people of all ages, regardless of race, color, sex, religion, national origin, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. SCAFR is a n equal opportunity employer. 1 The Impact of School Quality on Real House Prices: Interjurisdictional Effects* Donald R. Haurin Departments of Economics and Finance Ohio State University 1010 Derby Hall 154 N. Oval Mall Columbus OH, 43210 David Brasington Department of Economics Ohio State University 431 Arps Hall 1945 N. High Street Columbus OH, 43210 First submitted: May 30, 1996 Revised: September 13, 1996 *Acknowledgments: We thank the Center for Real Estate Education and Research at the Ohio State University for providing funding. We also thank the referees for helpful suggestions, and Hazel Morrow-Jones and Tom Biers for supplying the house price data. The following researchers for the State of Ohio assisted in gathering community data: Jeffrey Knowles of the Office of Criminal Justice Services, Julie Kasenbaum and Dave Miltko of Education Management Information Services, and Francis Rogers of Education Policy Research. 2 Proposed Running Head: Impact of School Quality on House Prices Send proofs to: Donald R. Haurin Ohio State University 1010 Derby Hall 154 N. Oval Mall Columbus OH, 43210 Phone: 614-292-0482 FAX: 614-292-9530 ABSTRACT This study focuses on explaining variations in real constant-quality house prices in jurisdictions located in multiple MSAs. Using a hedonic house price framework, we test competing theories of house price determination. Using two variants of the random coefficients model, we find that public school quality has a very large impact on real constant-quality house prices. Our results suggest that capitalization of school quality differences occurs on a per lot basis rather than per square foot of land. Also important to the explanation of variations in house prices are variables derived from urban theory, such as distance to the CBD, and from the amenity literature, such as a community’s crime rate, arts, and recreational opportunities. CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS: R21, I29, H22 3 LIST OF SYMBOLS Greek alpha Greek beta Greek delta Greek epsilon Greek gamma µGreek mu Greek tau Greek sigma 4 Many articles have focused on explaining cross-sectional or time-series variations in metropolitan real constant-quality house prices. Such explanations are important for testing theories of house price determination and for predicting future variations. Our study uses 134 jurisdictions in six metropolitan areas to test competing explanations of why real constant-quality house prices vary, where we define a constant-quality house as a unit where structural and land attributes, but not community attributes, are held constant. Included in the paper are tests of hypotheses derived from spatial urban theory, local public economics, and the urban amenity literature. Our paper differs from most in that we include a wide array of jurisdictions in multiple MSAs in the sample. Most studies of constant-quality house prices confine their analysis to consider price variations in one class of urban areas such as MSAs, central cities, or the suburbs of a single central city. By including suburban localities from multiple MSAs in the sample, we open the analysis to consider intraurban house price variations explained by spatial urban economic models, jurisdiction-specific amenities, and local public finance theory, as well as interurban variations in metropolitan-wide variables such as the expected growth rate. A particular focus of our study is analysis of the impact of variations in public school outcomes on real constant-quality house prices. This focus results from the importance of school quality to a household's locational choice (Graves and Linneman, 1979) and from the importance of public schools in models of local public taxes and expenditures. We find that a measure of student achievement is very important in explaining spatial variations in real constant-quality house prices. 5 I. MODELS OF HOUSE PRICE DETERMINATION A. Prior Studies Theoretical models of house price determination can be separated, somewhat arbitrarily, into those explaining intraurban variations in house prices and those explaining interurban variations. The monocentric urban model suggests that land and housing rental rates are functions of transport costs, household income, metro area population size, and agricultural rental rates (Mills, 1967; Muth, 1969). Extensions to land and housing prices, rather than rents, by Capozza and Helsey (1989, 1990) and Capozza and Schwann (1989) suggest land prices are determined by transport costs, agricultural rents, income, population, the discount rate, and the expected growth of income and population. Intraurban studies of house price differentials caused by variations in amenities are numerous (Jackson, 1979; Li and Brown, 1980; McMillan, Reid, and Gillen, 1980; Diamond, 1980; Michaels and Smith, 1990). Jud (1980), Pollakowski and Wachter (1990), and Pogodzinski and Sass (1991) added zoning to the list of explanatory factors. Other land use or supply restrictions were included by Hamilton (1978), Fischel (1980, 1981), and Rose (1989), these studies reporting a mixed impact of land use restrictions on housing prices. Theoretical models of interurban house price variation include those highlighting the impact of variations in site-specific factors such as local climate (Haurin, 1980), air pollution and other amenities (Rosen, 1979; Roback, 1982), or shocks to the urban labor market (Haurin and Haurin, 1988). Empirical studies with an interurban focus introduced factors such as crime, recreational opportunities, and population demographics (Blomquist, Berger, and Hoehn, 1988; Beeson and Eberts, 1989; Peek and Wilcox, 1991; Blomquist and Berger 1992; Potepan 1994). A few studies adopted a supply and demand framework to explain house price variation among metro areas. Ozanne and Thibodeau (1983) explained 58% of the variation in house prices among 54 MSAs, but they found only three significant factors: percent nonelderly singles, 6 price of farm land, and number of municipalities in the MSA. Follow-up studies include Fortura and Kushner (1986), who used Canadian data, and Manning (1986, 1989), who used 94 U.S. MSAs and found better correspondence between theoretical predictions and the empirical results. Manning explained 84% of the variation in house prices and found the most important explanatory variables to be construction costs, farm land prices, climate, percentage of high income households, and a measure of household operating and utility costs. However, crime, pollution, total population, density, and population growth had no effect. Hendershott and Thibodeau (1990) found variations in real income among 18 cities significantly affected real house prices, but spatial variations in land supply restrictions and amenities had no impact. Studies that explain variations in a single representative value of the house price index among multiple MSAs tend to ignore local taxes and public goods because of the heterogeneity of taxes and public services within the MSA. Many empirical studies have linked measures of local public goods and taxes to house price variations. Interest increased after Oates’ 1969 2SLS test of the Tiebout hypothesis. Using aggregate data, Oates found that increased school expenditures raise property values while increased taxes lower values, this result replicated by Rosen and Fullerton (1977). Oates’ interpretation was critiqued by Linneman (1978), Hamilton (1976), Sonstelie and Portney (1980), and Pollakowski (1982). Linneman and Hamilton argued that in equilibrium neither effect would be present, thus neither regression coefficient would be significant. This point was countered by Yinger (1982) who argued that supply restrictions allow local taxes and services to be capitalized into house prices. Sonstelie and Portney used gross rent rather than market value to test the Tiebout hypothesis. Pollakowski objected to Oates’ list of predetermined variables in his 2SLS approach, noting they may be correlated with the error term in the property value equation. A comprehensive critical review of the property tax literature and further empirical study is contained Yinger, Bloom, Borsch-Supan, and Ladd (1988). They argue that the property value equation should be specified in log rather than linear form and note that the effective property tax rate as 7 measured in most micro data studies is endogenous because it is computed as the ratio of the tax on a property to its value. The tax on a property depends on assessor practices as well as the stated tax rate; thus, they argue for using the community’s nominal tax rate and variables related to assessor errors as instruments in a 2SLS econometric model. In a study of changes in property values in response to changes in tax rates, Yinger, et al. find evidence for modest capitalization of property taxes. A recent flood of papers on MSA house price determination has been generated by an interest in understanding observations of substantial intertemporal fluctuations in particular cities or regions. This research has been aided by the development of better panel data sets (Thibodeau, 1989,1995; Nothaft, Gao, Wang, 1995; Pollakowski, 1995). Generally, the fundamental forces hypothesized to affect MSA-wide house prices are found important in explaining long term movements in house price. Poterba (1991) finds that shifts in income and construction costs are important, but aggregate demographic effects and user cost variations have weak or no effect. Significant effects of population demographics are found by Mankiw and Weil (1989) and Case and Shiller (1990). In a panel data model, Kim (1993) finds that MSA house prices are explained by construction costs, interest rates, metro population, income, income growth, and climate. However, city-specific intertemporal residuals follow a cyclical pattern that is not explained by actual or expected changes in market fundamentals. These short term fluctuations in house prices may be driven by speculative bubbles forming and bursting (Abrahm and Hendershott, 1993, 1996). While these studies are informative and provide support for the hypotheses derived from theoretical economic models of urban areas, they study only a single representative house price in each MSA; in contrast, our approach combines intraurban and interurban models and focuses on multiple jurisdictions within MSAs. B. Current Study We include factors influencing both intraurban and interurban variations in house prices. 8 Examples of factors believed to influence the price of housing within an MSA include distance from the central business district, local amenities, jurisdiction-specific public services and property tax rates. Examples of factors that primarily influence entire metropolitan areas and may differ among MSAs include climate, overall accessibility, arts and recreational opportunities, and the expected growth of the metro area. Our primary community-level public sector explanatory variable is a measure of the outcome of local public education. The literature regarding the appropriateness of our proficiency test score is discussed later in the paper, but similar measures have been used in other hedonic house price studies. Other community-level variables included in the explanation of variations in constant-quality house prices are derived from urban spatial theory (e.g., distance from CBD), local public economics (e.g., property tax rate), or urban-amenities theory (e.g., crime rate). The standard urban economic monocentric model argues that within a metro area, the principal variable causing variations in constant-quality house prices is land price. Spatial variations in the rental rate or price per unit of land exist because of differences in transport costs to the metro area’s central business district. A typical land rental (p) equation is p(r) = P e where r is distance from the CBD, P is agricultural land rental, R is the distance to(R-r) the metro area edge, and is a conversion parameter that depends on transport cost per mile and community income. The land rental equation suggests that distance to the CBD should be1 included in the house price model. Agricultural land cost and transport cost per mile are very2 similar among our MSAs because the areas are in close proximity; thus, we do not include these variables in our model. 3 We also test for the impact of MSA-level variables on real constant-quality house prices. Examples include expected growth of the MSA and a measure of overall MSA accessibility. Justifications for these variables are given in aggregative urban models such as Henderson (1985) - accessibility, and Capozza and Helsey (1989, 1990) - growth. We include two MSA level amenity 9 measures, one measuring the opportunity to attend art events, the other measuring recreational opportunities. Our study uses the hedonic house price method to develop a measure of real constant- quality house prices. Because our data are cross-sectional, alternative methods such as the repeat-sales approach are not feasible. Our variant of the hedonic approach is to relate the natural log of the real transaction prices for houses (ln V) to a set of structural and land characteristics (X). To find the deflated house price, we divide the observed nominal price by the nonhousing4 price index for the MSA. We similarly deflate all other nominal variables in the study. 5 C. Model Two forms of hedonic price equation are tested. In the first, the estimation interacts the jurisdiction dummy variables with a property’s lot size (L ):i ln V = X + (L J ) + (1)ij ij ij j j ij where i is a transacted house, j is the school district, and is a random error. representsj jurisdiction-specific shifts in the implicit price of a square foot of land, thus testing one form of the capitalization hypothesis. The second form includes a series of dummy variables (J ) indicating thej jurisdiction (school district) of an observation: ln V = X + J ’ + (2)ij ij j j ij The coefficients ’ represent the percentage deviations of an average house price in district j fromj that of a constant-quality house. Only the regression intercept changes among districts, thus testing another form of the capitalization hypothesis. In the second step of the analysis, the coefficients and ’ are related to a vector ofjj community and MSA level variables Z :j = Z + µ (3)j j j ’ = Z ’ + µ’. (3')j j j Eqns. (3) and (3') are the capitalization tests for the community and MSA variables. The functional 10 form of eqns. (2) and (3') tests for an impact through changes in the implicit price of land, thus the impact differs among houses within a jurisdiction depending on a property’s lot size. In contrast, the form of (1) and (3) tests for an equal percentage impact of variations in lot size on all houses in a district. II. DATA AND METHODS A. Data The primary source of data for this study is a file of 1991 housing transactions in the six largest metro areas in Ohio (Amerestate, 1991). We limit the sample to single-family detached houses and eliminate outliers. Eliminating any school district having less than 17 observed house6 sales trims the sample to 140 school districts. This process yields a sample of 45,236 transactions with over a third being from the central cities of our six MSAs. Variable means and standard deviations are reported in Table I for both the complete sample and a sample that excludes the central city transactions. Detailed definitions of all variables are listed in the data appendix. Explanatory variables in (3) are drawn from various sources including the Places Rated Almanac (Savageau and Boyer 1993), the Ohio Department of Education, the School District Data Book (MESA Group 1994), and the Office of Criminal Justice Services of the State of Ohio. [INSERT TABLE I] B. Method The pair of eqns. (1) and (3) or the pair (2) and (3') are forms of random coefficient models; estimation methods are discussed by Amemiya (1978). We follow the method of Garman and Richards (1990) where equations (3) and (3') are substituted into (1) and (2) respectively. The resulting single equation models are: ln V = X + (L Z ) + µ + . (4)ij ij ij j j ij 11 and ln V = X + Z ’ + µ’ + (4')ij ij j j ij The form in (4) is the same as in Garman and Richards where a multistep GLS procedure is used to correct for the heteroskedastic error. Assuming the errors in (1) and (3) are uncorrelated, the variance of the error in (4) is ( L + ) where is the variance of µ and is22222 ij j the variance of . These variances are estimated in auxiliary regressions of (1) and (3) where inijj (3) is the vector of estimated coefficients of the interaction variables in (1). The final step is to estimate (4) correcting for the estimated heteroskedasticity, yielding consistent and asymptotically efficient estimates. Eqn. (4') is a random effects model, this frequently used in the analysis of panel data and requiring use of generalized least squares. It is appropriate in our case because we test for jurisdiction-specific mean zero random errors in house prices (µ). j 7 C. Explanatory Variables Measures of the house and lot characteristics include age, square footage of house and garage, full and part baths, unenclosed and enclosed porches, deck, patio, pool, air conditioning, fireplace, number of outbuildings, and quarter of sale within the survey year. The highlighted local public service is a measure of public school outcomes, specifically, the percentage of ninth grade students passing all four parts of a proficiency test administered in all public schools in the state. This variable has a mean of 43.2 and ranges from 6 to 89. The test is administered each year of high school; thus, aggregate passage rates rise as a cohort of students moves through high school. State law requires that a student pass each of the four components of the test to receive a high school diploma. The literature on measuring the8 outcomes of K to 12 education raises the question as to the best measure of school quality: test scores, attendance rate, college continuation rate, dropout rate, or wages later in life. We argue that our measure is easily observed (results are published in newspapers), varies greatly among 12 districts, and is directly relevant for parents’ judging the probability of a student receiving a high school diploma; thus, it is an appropriate measure. Prior studies have included measures of school quality or outcomes when explaining house price variations. Li and Brown (1980) find that 4th graders’ test scores have a positive and significant impact on house prices in Boston. Jud and Watts (1981) used test scores in a hedonic house price study of a single jurisdiction and estimated the demand for school quality in a second stage estimation. Dubin and Sung (1990) use a J test to contrast alternative combinations of variables to use in their semilog hedonic house price equation and decide to exclude their two measures of school quality because measures of race and socio-economic status dominate. Pogodzinski and Sass (1991) find that scores on a statewide achievement test positively and significantly affect house prices. The other public sector variable in our model is the property tax rate in the community. Our data set does not contain the tax on each property or the assessed value of the property; thus, we cannot construct the effective tax rate for each property. Rather, we must use the nominal rate reported for each jurisdiction. This measure is exogenous and Yinger, et al. (1988) proposed its use as an instrumental variable for the effective tax rate. The omitted component of the property tax rate is the property-specific assessor’s error (Goodman, 1983). Other explanatory variables in the house value equation include three suggested by the urban model: distance of a property to the CBD, an aggregate measure of accessibility in each MSA, and expected MSA population growth. We expect increased accessibility or expected growth, and decreased distance to the CBD to be positively related to constant-quality house prices. We measure expected growth by the ratio of 1990 to 1980 MSA population, the accessibility measure is from Places Rated Almanac (1993), and distance to CBD is approximated by the distance of a jurisdiction’s centroid to the MSA’s CBD. The amenity literature suggests that an increased crime rate in a jurisdiction reduces the 13 price per unit of housing. Our measure is the number of serious crimes per capita; the definition includes murders, rapes, robbery, aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, and arson. We also include average income and MSA recreational and arts opportunities as measures of amenities present in a jurisdiction. The final variables included in the estimation are the percentage of9 nonwhite households, this potentially capturing variations in house prices resulting from discrimination, and the percentage of households residing in the jurisdiction for fewer than six years, this being a measure of community stability. III. RESULTS Preliminary regressions of eqns. (1) and (2) reveals substantial variation in house prices among jurisdictions. From (1) we find that constant-quality house prices range from 35% lower to 70% higher than the reference district, Columbus OH. Evaluated at the mean lot size, we find from (2) constant-quality variation in the price of land of 30% lower to 85% higher than the reference district. Both results suggest a much greater spread of constant-quality house prices at the community level than at the MSA level. In the six MSAs in our study, the average MSA price variation compared with the Columbus MSA ranged from 6.4% lower to 7.7% higher.Results10 of estimating eqns. (4) and (4') are contained in Table II. We report the results based on the sample of jurisdictions excluding the six central cities, leaving 134 localities and 29,718 observations. Estimated coefficients are somewhat sensitive to whether central city properties are included, suggesting possible specification problems when extending the model to cover both central cities and suburbs.11 A. GLS Model with Lot Size Interaction Variables: Eqn (4) The house and lot characteristics generally have the expected signs and are significant. One exception is the number of outbuildings, this not significant. The interpretation of increased lot 14 size is complicated by the inclusion of the interaction terms, but the overall marginal impact is positive. We find that increased square footage of the house or garage increase house price, but at a decreasing rate. Increasing age reduces house value and the negative coefficient for AGE SQUARED implies housing depreciates at an increasing rate. In our estimation of (4) we include both the community variable-lot size interactions and the level of the community variables (e.g., both TEST SCORE and LOT*TEST SCORE). If only the coefficient of the interaction variable is significant, then the impact of the community level variables is solely through changes in a property’s implicit price per square foot of land. Thus, large lots are impacted at a higher rate. However, if the impact of high quality schools is to create a fixed premium per property independent of lot size, then the coefficient of TEST SCORE will also be significant. For example, a positive TEST SCORE coefficient combined with a negative coefficient for the LOT-SCORE interaction implies that the capitalization of high quality schools into property values is a greater percentage for small properties than large, this result consistent with a relatively fixed school quality premium per property. Table II’s results show that all community variables’ coefficients have the expected sign. Moreover, all are significant except the MSA growth rate and the tax rate (both have t-values of 1.2). Generally, the lot size-community variable interactions have the opposite sign of the community variables, the exceptions being the aggregate accessibility variable (not significant) and average income and recreational opportunities (both significant). Thus, although the community variables clearly affect the value of property in a jurisdiction, the change is not simply a constant percentage increase or decrease in the price per unit of land. The impact of our focal variable, school quality, on property value is shown through the following example. Compare a house with sample mean value of $76,115 in a community with a test score of 43 to an identical house and community except test score is one point higher. The result is that house value rises by $380. If the community’s proficiency test pass rate is two 15 standard deviations above the sample mean (this value is still below the sample maximum), house value rises to $89,930, an 18 percent increase.12 Another evaluation of the impact of variations in school quality is to compare two houses, one with a larger lot than the other, but otherwise identical, in each of two communities. In the community with a higher TEST SCORE the value of both houses is higher, but the changes depend on the strength of the negative coefficient of the LOT*TEST SCORE variable compared with the impact of the nonlinear estimation. The resolution of the offsetting effects is that within a13 standard deviation of the mean lot size, the impact of a higher test score on house value is nearly independent of lot size. We find that superior school quality is capitalized into property values,14 but the capitalization is about the same for all properties in a school district. B. Random Effects Model: Eqn. (4') Generally, the results in the random effects model are similar to those in the interaction variable model. Some differences are noted for the age of a house and the number of out buildings. Overall explanatory power is the same. The coefficient of TEST SCORE implies that every additional percent of students passing the test raises house value by $400, equaling one-half percent of mean house value. 15 V. CONCLUSIONS Our study focuses on explaining variations in constant-quality house prices among 134 communities in multiple MSAs. Explaining differences in house prices requires hypotheses to be drawn from both intraurban and interurban economic models. We find that real constant-quality house prices are explained by factors from both perspectives and they combine to explain 70% of the observed price variation. School quality is the most important cause of the variation in constant-quality house prices. 16 We find that each percentage point increase in the pass rate of ninth grade students on a statewide proficiency exam increases house prices by one-half percent. Because pass rates vary among sampled communities from 6 to 89 percent, constant-quality house prices vary greatly due to this factor alone. The estimation results suggest that the capitalized premium for high quality schools is relatively constant per lot rather than being constant per square foot of land. Other factors important to the explanation of constant-quality house prices include distance from the CBD, metro area accessibility, crime rate, percentage of nonwhite households, average household income, and indexes of metro area arts and recreational opportunities. We found no consistent impact of expected population growth, the nominal property tax rate, or community stability. Prior studies of a single house price representative of an entire MSA have been limited in two ways. First, they exclude hypotheses about house price variations derived from spatial models of urban areas and from local public economics. Second, they do not attempt to explain the substantial house price variation among communities within a single MSA. Developing a model that explains why house prices vary among communities within an MSA and among MSAs is the greatest challenge, requiring hypotheses from both intraurban and interurban perspectives. 17 1. The negative exponential form is derived under the restriction that the price elasticity of demand for housing is -1.0. 2. Some studies use population density instead of distance to the CBD. We select distance because it is a more fundamental variable and density may be endogenous. If substituted for distance, density works equally well in our estimation. 3. Construction costs are also relatively constant in the jurisdictions in the sample. 4. This semi-log form has been used in many studies with justifications listed in Thibodeau (1989). We used a Davidson-MacKinnon test (1981) to determine whether a semi-log or a linear form of hedonic equation is preferable; however, the test result is inconclusive. King (1977) objects to inclusion of the property tax rate in a linear hedonic, but Sontelie and Portney (1980) note that this objection is ameliorated if a semi-log form is used. We opt for the semi-log form based on the literature and because the estimated coefficients better conform to theoretical expectations. 5. The deflators are from the American Chamber of Commerce cost of living index (ACCRA 1991, 1992). 6. We deleted observations with lot sizes greater than two acres and those with transaction prices over $400,000 or below $10,000. Outliers in lot size, square feet of housing, and garage size were also eliminated. Mean real house value is $76,115. 7. We use Limdep 7.0 (1995, Ch. 17.3) which uses a two step procedure. 8. Students completing high school, but failing to pass the exam receive a certificate of attendance. 9. Climate is not included because the relatively close proximity of the six MSAs in the sample yields little variation. Measures of zoning or land supply restrictions are not available. 10. The six MSAs in the sample are Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Toledo. Footnotes 18 The smallest PMSA is Toledo with 1990 population of 0.61 million and the largest is Cleveland with population 2.20 million. 11. We tested for systematic differences in house characteristic implicit prices between central city properties and suburban properties by running separate hedonic regressions, then pooling the data. A Chow test of the equality of the two sets of coefficients strongly rejects equality. Further, coefficient equality is rejected even if a dummy variable for central city location is included in the pooled regression. 12. A quadratic test score was tried in the estimation, but it proved to be insignificant with a coefficient near zero. 13. That is, if the only impact of a higher test score was the linear term in the hedonic, house value would rise more for the house with the larger lot because of the logarithmic form. 14. 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S., Borsch-Supan, A., and Ladd, H. F. (1988). Property Taxes and House Values. Boston, MA: Academic Press. 27 TABLE I Descriptive Statistics Values for the full sample of 45,236 are reported first, followed by values for the sample of 29, 718 transactions in suburban jurisdictions. Full Sample Suburban Sample Variables Mean Standard Dev. Mean Standard Dev. Age (10s) 4.21 2.48 3.44 2.25 Air Conditioning 0.36 0.48 0.44 0.49 Autumn Sale 0.28 0.45 0.28 0.45 Crime Rate 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 Deck 0.11 0.31 0.14 0.35 Distance to CBD 8.95 6.59 12.27 5.75 Enclosed Porches 0.15 0.38 0.14 0.36 Fireplace 0.39 0.49 0.47 0.50 Full Bath 1.31 0.50 1.40 0.54 Garage Size (1000s) 0.33 0.19 0.36 0.19 House Size (1000s) 1.46 0.51 1.55 0.54 Log House Price 11.04 0.61 11.24 0.51 Lot Size (10000s) 1.06 0.89 1.26 1.00 MSA Accessibility Index 47.88 6.03 48.72 5.74 MSA Arts Index 11.56 4.50 12.13 5.56 MSA Population Growth 1.73 4.93 1.39 4.70 MSA Recreation Index 20.91 4.59 21.03 4.80 Out Buildings 0.03 0.18 0.04 0.20 Part Bath 0.35 0.49 0.44 0.52 Patio 0.21 0.41 0.25 0.43 Nonwhite Households 0.18 0.17 0.08 0.11 Pool 0.01 0.11 0.02 0.13 Property Tax Rate 35.12 6.16 35.02 6.36 Real Income 32.64 14.67 39.33 13.77 Test Score 33.71 17.98 43.17 14.85 Turnover Rate 0.48 0.08 0.47 0.09 Summer Sale 0.31 0.46 0.31 0.46 Unenclosed Porches 0.76 0.73 0.67 0.70 Winter Sale 0.24 0.43 0.23 0.42 28 TABLE II Estimation of Real House Prices a Interacted Model Inte rcept Model Variables Coefficient Standard Error Coefficient Standard Error b b Constant 986.82** 5.7 948.77** 11.15 Age -3.96**0.28 -6.00** 0.29 Age-squared -0.07**0.03 0.06**0.02 Lot Size -2.60 4.29 10.12** 0.50 Lot Size Squared -0.10**0.01 -0.93** 0.07 House Size 43.22** 1.72 42.99** 1.66 House Size-squared -2.88**0.45 -2.95** 0.43 Garage Size 33.13** 2.36 34.86** 2.23 Garage Size-squared -23.99** 3.52 -23.53** 3.24 Deck 5.52**0.51 5.22**0.50 Unenclosed Porches 1.62**0.29 1.27**0.28 Enclosed Porches 1.29**0.52 1.62**0.51 Fireplace 8.14**0.41 8.12**0.41 Air Conditioning 6.81**0.41 6.69**0.40 Full Bath 6.31**0.46 6.88**0.45 Part Bath 5.67**0.40 5.73**0.39 Out Buildings 0.78 0.88 1.93* 0.81 Pool 3.32**1.30 4.30**1.19 Patio 2.36**0.49 2.48**0.46 Summer Sale 5.09**0.49 5.18**0.47 Autumn Sale 5.58**0.50 5.75**0.48 Winter Sale 5.22**0.51 5.28**0.50 Distance to CBD -1.32**0.07 -1.27** 0.15 Lot*Distance to CBD 1.14 0.60 ---- Test Score 0.68**0.04 0.52**0.09 Lot*Test Score -0.10**0.03 ---- Property Tax Rate -0.08 0.06 0.23 0.12 Lot*Property Tax Rate 0.14**0.05 ---- Real Income 0.21**0.04 0.31**0.08 Lot*Real Income 0.05* 0.02 ---- Crime Rate -292.73** 39.80 -272.38** 98.24 Lot*Crime Rate 73.95* 33.30 ---- Turnover Rate -9.45**4.46 17.22 9.08 Lot*Turnover Rate 8.46**3.38 ---- Variables Coefficient Standard Error Coefficient Standard Error b b 29 Nonwhite Households -49.19** 3.95 -32.69** 7.32 Lot*Nonwhite Household 22.92** 3.73 ---- MSA Population Growth Rate 0.12 0.10 0.30 0.19 Lot*MSA Population Growth Rate -0.03 0.08 ---- MSA Accessibility Index 0.46**0.08 0.78**0.16 Lot*MSA Accessibility Index 0.05 0.06 ---- MSA Arts Index 1.18**0.10 0.81**0.23 Lot*MSA Arts Index -0.35**0.08 ---- MSA Recreation Index 0.24**0.09 0.60**0.19 Lot*MSA Recreation Index 0.20**0.07 ---- Adjusted R 0.70 0.70 2 Dependent Variable is 1990 Log Real Transaction House Price. Sample size is 29, 718 transactions in suburban jurisdictions. *Significant at 5%a level, **Significant at 1% level. All coefficients and standard errors are x10 . b -2 30 DATA APPENDIX VARIABLE NAME DESCRIPTION and SOURCE (in parentheses) House Characteristics AGE Age of house in tens of years (2) AIR CONDITIONING Air conditioning dummy (2) DECK Deck dummy (2) ENCLOSED PORCHES Number of enclosed porches (2) FIREPLACE Fireplace dummy (2) FULL BATH Number of full bathrooms (2) GARAGE SIZE Garage size in thousands of square feet(2) HOUSE SIZE House size in thousands of square feet (2) LOG REAL TRANSACTION Log of transaction amount for house, deflated by MSA nonhousing price index (2) HOUSE PRICE LOT SIZE Lot size in tens of thousands of square feet (2) OUT BUILDINGS Number of out buildings on property (2) PART BATH Number of partial bathrooms (2) 31 PATIO Patio dummy (2) POOL Pool dummy (2) UNENCLOSED PORCHES Number of unenclosed porches (2) Community /MSA Characteristics CRIME RATE Serious crimes including murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, and arson, per 1,000 residents (5) DISTANCE TO CBD A measured in mile of the distance from the centroid of a jurisdiction to the MSA’s center MSA ACCESSIBILITY INDEX A measure of the MSA ease of accessibility. The variable is a weighted average of lower than average commuting time to work, mass transit availability, highway accessibility, air and train accessibility, in thousands (1) MSA ARTS INDEX A measure of the number of arts performances, museums, and library holdings in the MSA (1) MSA POPULATION GROWTH 1990 population of the MSA divided by 1980 population (1) RATE MSA RECREATION INDEX A measure of recreational opportunities in the MSA including theaters, sports, parks, golf courses, zoo/aquarium, restaurants (1) NONWHITE HOUSEHOLDS The percentage of nonwhite households/100 (4) PROPERTY TAX RATE Nominal property tax millage rate (3) 32 REAL INCOME Deflated average income, in thousands (4) TEST SCORE Percentage of ninth grade students who passed all sections of the 1990 state proficiency test. The test included sections on reading, writing, math, and citizenship (3) TURNOVER RATE Percentage of households who have lived in the district less than 6 years (4) Sources: (1) Places Rated Almanac . (2) Amerestate housing tape. (3) Ohio Department of Education, Division of Education Management Information Services. (4) School District Data Book (MESA Group 1994). (5) Office of Criminal Justice Services of State of Ohio.