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HomeMy Public PortalAboutExhibit MSD 67F Pricing Analyses Credit SpreadsTable of Contents  Item No. Document   5‐4 Tampa, FL Water & Sewer Revenue Pricing  Analysis     Water/Wastewater Comparables    Credit Spread Trend – MMD AAA GO to MMD A  GO ‐ Chart      TAMPA,FL WATER & SEWER REVENUE PRICING ANALYSISFL TAMPA BAY WTRReoffering Yield To Yield ToMaturity DateMaturity Year Call DateBondType Ins. Par Amount CouponYield (ROY) PriceCall(YTC)Maturity (YTM)5% AAA G.O. Scale ROY Spread YTC Spread YTM Spread ROY Spread YTM Spread OAYNon-CallScale OAY Spread Takedown10/1/12 1.0 Serial 1,390,000 2.000% 0.250% 101.824 0.250% 0.220%3.03.0 2.3 2.310/1/13 2.0 Serial 1,540,000 2.000% 0.510% 103.026 0.510% 0.300%21.021.0 20.3 20.310/1/14 3.0 Serial 1,570,000 4.000% 0.640% 110.114 0.640% 0.380%26.026.0 24.6 24.610/1/15 4.0 Serial 1,665,000 4.000% 0.850% 112.497 0.850% 0.540%31.031.0 28.0 28.010/1/16 5.0 Serial 1,605,000 2.000% 1.250% 103.655 1.250% 0.890%36.036.0 33.3 33.310/1/17 6.0 Serial 1,460,000 3.000% 1.550% 108.335 1.550% 1.200%35.035.0 32.2 32.210/1/18 7.0 Serial 4,485,000 4.000% 1.910% 113.713 1.910% 1.530%38.038.0 35.6 35.610/1/18 7.0 Serial 1,400,000 5.000% 1.910% 120.275 1.910% 1.530%38.038.0 35.6 35.610/1/19 8.0 Serial 1,610,000 3.000% 2.210% 105.792 2.210% 1.810%40.040.0 37.8 37.810/1/19 8.0 Serial 4,525,000 5.000% 2.210% 120.457 2.210% 1.810%40.040.0 37.8 37.810/1/20 9.0 Serial 3,365,000 2.500% 2.510% 99.918 2.510% 2.060%45.045.0 43.3 43.310/1/20 9.0 Serial 3,045,000 5.000% 2.510% 120.034 2.510% 2.060%45.045.0 43.3 43.310/1/21 10.0 Serial 1,845,000 3.750% 2.710% 109.090 2.710% 2.260%45.045.0 43.3 43.310/1/21 10.0 Serial 4,795,000 5.000% 2.710% 120.017 2.710% 2.260%45.045.0 43.3 43.310/1/22 11.0 10/1/21 Serial 1,425,000 4.000% 2.980% 108.796 2.980% 3.056% 2.460%52.052.0 59.6 50.3 57.8 3.039% 2.487%55.110/1/22 11.0 10/1/21 Serial 5,530,000 5.000% 2.980% 117.422 2.980% 3.123% 2.460%52.052.0 66.3 50.3 64.5 3.068% 2.487%58.110/1/23 12.0 10/1/21 Serial 780,000 3.000% 3.170% 98.308 3.198% 3.170% 2.660%51.053.8 51.0 49.6 49.6 3.156% 2.689%46.710/1/23 12.0 10/1/21 Serial 6,500,000 5.000% 3.170% 115.635 3.170% 3.406% 2.660%51.051.0 74.6 49.6 73.3 3.205% 2.689%51.610/1/24 13.0 10/1/21 Serial 790,000 3.250% 3.390% 98.532 3.424% 3.390% 2.820%57.060.4 57.0 55.8 55.8 3.355% 2.905%45.110/1/24 13.0 10/1/21 Serial 6,840,000 5.000% 3.340% 114.064 3.340% 3.636% 2.820%52.052.0 81.6 50.8 80.4 3.333% 2.905%42.810/1/25 14.0 10/1/21 Serial 500,000 3.500% 3.550% 99.449 3.566% 3.550% 2.960%59.060.6 59.0 58.0 58.0 3.486% 3.071%41.410/1/25 14.0 10/1/21 Serial 7,500,000 5.000% 3.450% 113.061 3.450% 3.792% 2.960%49.049.0 83.2 48.0 82.1 3.419% 3.071%34.810/1/26 15.0 10/1/21 Serial 370,000 4.000% 3.670% 102.750 3.670% 3.759% 3.080%59.059.0 67.9 58.1 66.9 3.593% 3.199%39.410/1/26 15.0 10/1/21 Serial 8,025,000 5.000% 3.570% 111.979 3.570% 3.937% 3.080%49.049.0 85.7 48.1 84.8 3.512% 3.199%31.210/1/27 16.0 10/1/21 Serial 8,810,000 5.000% 3.680% 110.998 3.680% 4.060% 3.190%49.049.0 87.0 48.1 86.2 3.594% 3.309%28.410/1/28 17.0 10/1/21 Serial 2,110,000 4.000% 4.000% 100.000 4.000% 4.000% 3.290%71.071.0 71.0 70.2 70.2 3.815% 3.418%39.710/1/28 17.0 10/1/21 Serial 7,140,000 5.000% 3.780% 110.116 3.780% 4.165% 3.290%49.049.0 87.5 48.2 86.7 3.670% 3.418%25.210/1/29 18.0 10/1/21 Serial 1,100,000 4.000% 4.050% 99.362 4.078% 4.050% 3.380%67.069.8 67.0 66.2 66.2 3.862% 3.508%35.510/1/29 18.0 10/1/21 Serial 8,590,000 5.000% 3.870% 109.328 3.870% 4.254% 3.380%49.049.0 87.4 48.2 86.6 3.738% 3.508%23.010/1/30 19.0 10/1/21 Serial 1,905,000 4.000% 4.100% 98.685 4.161% 4.100% 3.470%63.069.1 63.0 62.2 62.2 3.914% 3.598%31.610/1/31 20.0 10/1/21 Serial 7,745,000 4.125% 4.180% 99.256 4.216% 4.180% 3.560%62.065.6 62.0 61.2 61.2 3.962% 3.688%27.410/1/31 20.0 10/1/21 Serial 11,090,000 4.000% 4.180% 97.571 4.300% 4.180% 3.560%62.074.0 62.0 61.2 61.2 3.998% 3.688%31.1Issuance Par:1121,050,00011Average Life:113.5 years110Type of Sale: NEGOTIATEDDated Date: 9/15/11 RatingsUnderlyingUnderwriter: WELLS FARGO BANK N.A.Sale Date: 8/30/11 Moody's: Aa1Bond Counsel: NABORS GIBLIN & NICKERSONS & P: AA+Financial Advisor: FORD & ASSOCIATES INC1st Call Date: 10/1/21 Fitch: AA+Tax Status: Tax-Exempt1st Call Price: 100.0%1 Note: Issuance Par is total par; maturities without known yields are not shownNon-Interpolated MMD Interpolated MMD Option Value Analysis Water/Wastewater ComparisonsAverage Maturity Yield Spread Maturity Yield Spread Maturity Yield Spread Maturity Yield Spread Maturity Yield Spread Maturity Yield Spread Spread#10/1/2012 0.40 20 12/1/2012 0.33 137/1/2012 0.27 4 12#10/1/2013 0.70 30 12/1/2013 0.51 11 10/1/2013 0.51 9 7/1/2013 0.51 9 15 #10/1/2014 1.00 35 12/1/2014 0.81 16 10/1/2014 0.82 13 7/1/2014 0.82 13 19#10/1/2015 1.35 45 12/1/2015 1.07 17 10/1/2015 1.15 15 7/1/2015 1.15 16 23#10/1/2016 1.69 50 12/1/2016 1.37 18 10/1/2016 1.51 20 7/1/2016 1.48 19 27#10/1/2017 2.03 49 12/1/2017 1.74 20 12/1/2017 1.88 34 10/1/2017 1.91 21 7/1/2017 1.89 21 29#10/1/2018 2.41 49 12/1/2018 2.12 20 12/1/2018 2.30 38 10/1/2018 2.25 20 7/1/2018 2.27 24 30#10/1/2019 2.75 50 12/1/2019 2.46 21 12/1/2019 2.64 39 10/1/2019 2.60 23 7/1/2019 2.61 26 3211/1/2020 2.80 29#10/1/2020 3.02 53 12/1/2020 2.69 20 12/1/2020 2.89 40 10/1/2020 2.83 23 7/1/2020 2.84 26 3211/1/2021 3.00 32#10/1/2021 3.21 55 12/1/2021 2.84 18 12/1/2021 3.06 40 10/1/2021 3.04 27 3411/1/2022 3.25 38#10/1/2022 3.38 53 12/1/2022 2.99 14 12/1/2022 3.25 40 10/1/2022 3.26 30 3511/1/2023 3.41 38#10/1/2023 3.54 53 12/1/2023 3.15 14 12/1/2023 3.43 42 10/1/2023 3.41 29 3511/1/2024 3.55 38#10/1/2024 3.68 53 12/1/2024 3.28 13 12/1/2024 3.58 43 10/1/2024 3.58 31 3611/1/2025 3.72 42#12/1/2025 3.71 43 10/1/2025 3.73 33 3911/1/2026 3.82 43#12/1/2026 3.80 43 10/1/2026 3.84 33 4011/1/2027 3.90 42#10/1/2027 3.92 32 3711/1/2028 4.00 43#10/1/2028 4.00 31 3711/1/2029 4.09 43#12/1/2029 4.07 43 10/1/2029 4.07 29 3811/1/2030 4.18 43#12/1/2030 4.16 43 10/1/2030 4.16 29 3811/1/2031 4.43 58#12/1/2031 4.26 43 10/1/2031 4.24 28 4311/1/203212/1/2032 4.36 434311/1/203311/1/203411/1/2035 4.70 484811/1/203610/1/2036 4.56 23 2311/1/203710/1/2040 4.60 22 2211/1/2038 4.79 474711/1/204133Eastern Muni Water (CA) - Aa2/AA+/AASF Water (CA) - Aa3/AA- Tampa Bay Water - Aa2/AA+/AA+ Charlotte Water (NC) - Aaa/AAA/AAA Chicago Met Water - Aaa/AAA/AAA Dallas Water - Aa1/AAAPrepared by Public Financial Management, Inc.8/3/2011 3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%Credit Spread Trend ‐MMD AAA GO to MMD A GO1‐15‐2001 Spread: 0.23% 7‐15‐2011 Spread:  0.79%1/1/20017/1/20011/1/20027/1/20021/1/20037/1/20031/1/20047/1/20041/1/20057/1/20051/1/20067/1/20061/1/20077/1/20071/1/20087/1/20081/1/20097/1/20091/1/20107/1/20101/1/20117/1/20110.00%1.00%2.00%0.00%0.10%0.20%Spread from A to AAAMMD AAA GOMMD A GOSource: Thompson Reuters Municipal Market Data