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Home My Public Portal AboutExhibit MIEC 44C Attachment MSD-MIEC 1-7Exhibit MIEC 44C Attachment MSD-MIEC 1-7 Page 1 of 3 Blue Chip Economic Indicators Top Analysts' Forecasts of the U.S. Economic Outlook for the Year Ahead Vol. 36, No. 3 March 10, 2011 Wolters Kluwer Law & Business Attachment MSD-MIEC 1-7 Page 2 of 3 BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC INDICATORS® EXECUTIVE EDITOR: RANDELL E. MOORE 3663 Madison Ave. Kansas City, MO 64111 Phone (816) 931-0131 Fax (816) 931-0430 E-mail: randy.moore@wolterskluwer.com Robert J. Eggert Founder and Editor Emeritus Publisher: Paul Gibson Marketing Director: Dora Cervi Blue Chip Economic Indicators® (ISSN: 0193-4600) is published monthly by Aspen Publishers, 76 Ninth Avenue, New York, NY 10011. Printed in the U.S.A. Subscriptions: $985 per year for print or e- mail delivery of 12 monthly issues. $1169 per year for both print and e-mail delivery of 12 monthly issues. 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TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary — Highlights of latest survey results P. 1 2011 Blue Chip Forecasts — Individual and consensus forecasts of annual change in 15 key U.S. economic variables p. 2 2012 Blue Chip Forecasts — Individual and consensus forecasts of annual change in 15 key U.S. economic variables P. 3 History of Annual Consensus Forecasts — Annual forecasts from January 2010 to present and selected graphs p. 4 Quarterly Blue Chip Forecasts — Consensus forecasts of quarterly change in 12 U.S. economic variables through the end of 2012 P. 5 Blue Chip International Forecasts -- 2011 and 2012 consensus forecasts of economic growth, inflation, current account, exchange rate and short-term interest rate for 15 of America's largest trading partners p. 6-7 Recent Developments -- Graphs and analysis of economic trends p. 8-S Quarterly U.S. Forecasts — Graphs and analysis of latest quarterly consensus forecasts of key U.S. economic variables. p. 10-11 International Forecasts -- Graphs and analysis of selected international consensus forecasts p. 12 Databank — Monthly historical data on many key indicators of economic activity p. 13 Special Questions -- Results of twice -annual long-range survey. Consensus forecasts for the five years 2013 throe • h 2017 and the five-year period 2018-2022 p. 14-15 Viewpoints — A sampling of views on the economy and government excerpted from recent reports issued by our panel members or others.... p. 16-17 Calendar — Release dates for important upcoming economic data, FOMC meetings, etc p.18 --,1 Attachment MSD-MIEC 1-7 Page 3 of 3 MARCH 10, 2011 BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC INDICATORS ■ 15 Long -Range Consensus U.S. Economic Projections II. For comparison, this table includes some of the long-range consensus projections found on the preceding page, plus the latest long-range pro- jections from the Obama Administrationr'3 and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)2'3. ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1. Real GDP (chained, 2005 dollars) 2. GDP Chained Price Index 3. Nominal GDP (current dollars) 4. Consumer Price Index (for all urban consumers) 5. Treasury Bills, 3 -Month (percent per annum) 6. Treasury Notes, 10 -Year (yield per annum) 7. Unemployment Rate (% of civilian labor force) CONSENSUS Obama Admin.r' CBO2'3 CONSENSUS Obama Admin.I CBO2'3 CONSENSUS Obama Adnun.r' CBO2'3 CONSENSUS Obama Admin.t3 CBoa3 CONSENSUS Obama Admin.r3 CBO'3 CONSENSUS Obama Admin.''3 CBO2'3 CONSENSUS Obama Admin.43 CBO2'3 YEAR Five -Year Averages 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013-17 2018-22 Percent Change, Full Year -Over -Prior Year 3.2 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.6 5.3 6.1 4.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 3.1 4.3 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 5.3 6.1 5.3 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.9 3.8 3.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 5.1 5.6 5.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.8 2.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 2.4 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.2 2.1 1.7 1.8 5.1 5.5 5.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.0 4.7 4.4 4.4 2.4 2.1 2.3 Annual Average 2.9 2.6 2.5 4.9 4.2 4.2 7.5 7.5 7.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.2 4.6 4.6 6.8 6.6 6.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 5.4 5.0 5.0 63 5.9 5.9 3.9 4.1 4.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 6.0 5.5 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.8 5.3 5.3 III. In this table, we compare the results of our most recent survey with those of our survey in October 20104. ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1. Real GDP (chained, 2005 dollars) 2. GDP Chained Price Index 3. Nominal GDP (current dollars) 4. Consumer Price Index (for all urban consumers) 5. Treasury Bills, 3 -Month (percent per annum) 6. Treasury Notes, 10 -Year (yield per annum) 7. Unemployment Rate (% of civilian labor force) March Consensus October Consensus March Consensus October Consensus March Consensus October Consensus March Consensus October Consensus March Consensus October Consensus March Consensus October Consensus March Consensus October Consensus 3.6 3.7 3.7 53 4.9 4.9 6.5 6.2 6.2 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.2 YEAR . Five -Year Averages 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013-17 2018-22 Percent Change, Full Year -Over -Prior Year 3.2 3.0 2.0 1.9 53 4.9 23 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.1 2.0 5.3 4.8 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.1 5.1 4.7 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1 4.9 4.7 2.4 2.2 2.7 na 2.1 na 4.8 na 2.4 na 3.0 na 2.1 na 5.1 na 2.4 na 2.6 na 2.1 na 4.7 na 2.4 na Annual Average 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 na 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.6 na 3.9 na 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 53 5.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 na na na 73 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.8 6.5 5.6 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.2 na na na 'Budget of the United States Govermnent, Fiscal Year 2012, Office of Management and Budget, February 2011. 'The Budget and Economic Outlook Fiscal Years 2011- 2021, Congressional Budget Office, January, 2011. 'The Obama Administration's projections only extend through 2021, so averages for the 2018-2022 period are based on die forecast for the four-year period 2018-2021. CBO's projections only extend through 2021, so averages for the 2018-2022 period are based on the projections for the four-year period 2018-2021. °Blue Chip Economic Indicators, October 10, 2010.