HomeMy Public PortalAboutExhibit MSD 94O - MSD Trend and Demographics V2Exhibit MSD 940
Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer Distri
Population Projections April, 2015
Population Projections — City of St. Louis
351,000 -
350,500 -
350,000 -
349,500 -
349,000 -
348,500 -
348,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
(10,000)
(20,000)
(30,000)
(40,000)
350,800
350,583
350,385 Population Trend - City of St. Louis
349,769
349,004
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
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k r,Lu.L,
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births Deaths Migration
US Census estimates
vertex one 2
PENH! PAOGESS - PB07Et! PLATFORM
Population Projections — St. Louis County
995,000
990,000
985,000
980,000
975,000
970,000
965,000
960,000
955,000
950,000
945,000
940,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
(20,000)
(40,000)
(60,000)
(80,000)
(100,000)
987,799
Population Trend - St. Louis County
975,010
967,196
962,060
956,817
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
8,993)
i2o,541)
N
2010 2015 2020
US Census estimates
Births Deaths Migration
2025
(1 lZ,c77,)
2030
vertex one
PROVEN PROCESS - PROVER PLATFORM
Population Projections: Generations
GI Generation
1901-1926
Gen X
1965 -1980
Baby Boomers
1946 -1964
Mature/Silents
1927 -1945
To be used in the consumption portion
Millennials
1981- 2000
Gen Z
2001->
t.Q.14
ICU
■ertexone 4
PROVEN PROCESS - PROVEN PLAITFOO#I
Expanded Population Projections -City & County
Classify each age group into the corresponding "Generation"
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
St. Louis City Total 0-4 :4.85.) :;,252 13,2"t i 22.016 21,277
St. Louis City Total 5-9 .6.F0 ; t,)08 I:,156 21 I 20,735
St. Louis City Total 10-14 Z0,/54.-21.S149 21.577 21-01-C
St. Louis City Total 15-19 24,249 19,896 . 1.161 ;r]-9,:y i4,6
St. Louis City Total 20-24 26,675 26,526 21,830 23;25? 31,l; 33
St. Louis City Total 25-29 28,744 27,955 27,888 !3,uot /+.t '9
St. Louis City Total 30-34 26,708 27,281 25:620 26,629 22,019
St. Louis City 'otai 35-39 25,167 24,566 25.193 24,645 24,710
St. Louis City Total 40-44 22,854 23,615 23,123 23,778 23,313
St. Louis City Total 45-49 24,382 22,017 22,828 22,413 23,106
St. Louis City Total 50-54 23,676 21,467 22,335 21,999
St. Louis City Tcta 55-59 22,503 20,503 21,432
St. Louis City Total 60-64 30,843 19,122:
St. Louis City Total 65-69 18, 9
St. Louis C.ty Total 70-74
St. Louis City Total 75-79
St. Louis Cltr Total 80-84
St. Lours City Tota' S5-
St. Louis Ccuisty Tocsf 0-4
St. 'Louis County Total, 5-9
St. Louis County Total' 10-14
St. Louis County Toter 15-19
St. Louis County Total 20-24
St. Louis County Total 25-29
St. Louis Count,' Total 30-34
St. Louis County Total, 35-.39
St. Louis County Total 4,3-44
St. Louis County Tota 45-49
St. Lours County TOta 50-34
St. Louis County ToU: 55-59
St. Louis County Toth" 60-54
St. Louis County Tot -a 65-69
St. Louis County Tatar 70-74
St. Louis County Total75-79
St. Louis County Tota' 80-84
St. Louis County Total 85+
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
G7,444 64 - 58,878
114,040 0,150 61,7 62:324
a'r,v<0.#r511_
69,438 42,u;
69.158 55.231 59,310 901 0
57.147 52-.724 66,158 51.,
55. 2,1 56-227 68,101 65,453 a6.,16u
,5 64,382 66,289 63,803
62,533 57,199 53,396 62,605 64,556
14044 59,571 54,689 51,143 60,051
69190 55;625 510105 47,918
03,237 50,889 45,936
57.109 46,247
28.
US Census estimates
GI Generation
• , Born 1901-1926
• Born 1927- 1945
., Born between 194E and 1964
Generation X
• Born betn,een 1965 and 1980'
Generation Y/Mili#nrsium
• 3c n ttetg,ee+l 193_ a ,
Ci' l 2Ll01 ' irr later
GI Generation
*• Born 1901-1926
• Born 1927-1945
• Born between 1946 and 1964
• � , .,, . ets'�e 19E5 and 19 8 _
Generation Y/Millennium
• limn between 1981" and 2000"
• Born 2001" or later
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PROVER PROCESS - PROVEN PLATSORM
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Population Demographics:
Merge MSD Residential Consumer Data with 3rd Party Demographics:
This allows us to estimate average Household Size among other characteristics.
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Gender
Ethnicity
Income
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Education,
Residence
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Population / Consumer Projections:
With an average Household Size of approximately 3 people,
a projected population reduction of 15,000 people equates
to 5,000 fewer customers.
St Louis City Population Trends
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PROVEN PROCESS PROVEN PLATFORM
Consumption Protections April, 2015
Consumption Projections:
Consumption data is summarized by each "Generation". This data is then weighted based on US
Census projections and the proportion that each "Generation" represents.
Stiouis City Population Trends
4,1 if elf,/
Population
Trends
2010 2015 21:V 2t= 203V
St- LosOSCrly Total i3-01 .1.7
St -Low* City Tom, 5-9
St Louts ars Rola 10-14 20.7Sf.,
St. LOAF City Tat15-19 24,249 sofosri
St Lout-sato "T=DrA 20.24 21.675 26,526 23
St. Louitaty `r=1. 75,744 27,955 27,658 7.1011
• towocay "rn- r'6.708 27,251 25,620 ,.r.,3,rri ra,o/6
St IsrubCigr 704a; *, /5,367 01-A4 25,153 %"-., r-t' 21,210
St. Luttisatv Iotar 14 27P.P.615. IL,2; 4111 73.333
SC liotristity ro* •.Ors. 14_:12 P.! ? 1/.322 ?LAI, 711,101
St tost.saty F.64.61 I rtlh Ii. .12.1r6
St Loots Ciry Total 10.104 1 '
St, Louisanr Total 4U.4. AGM t I
St 1.4,14 Gift 10101 65.69 I 0...r).1.
SC Ilinirw City Total 20-74
14- 10015City Rota 7.$-19
14, Louitant Total 3D.E.4
St. Louisan' Total 147.
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Household
Level Demos
CCF's
GI Generation 4.8
Born 1901-1926
1011.0T/Flirrb 5.3
ipdS
1?-4,77 a/0.1
Generation X
Born between 1955 and 19&O'
6.5
6.9
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Metered Data
vertex one
PROYEN PROCESS - PROVEN PLATFORM
Changing Household Profiles
Generations (2014)
10/11°''.
26%
Mature / Silents (5.3 CCF's)
Gen X (6.9 CCF's)
Baby Boomers (6.5 CCF's)
Generation Y/Millennials (5.4 CCF's)
Generations (2025)
-- Mature / Silents (5.3 CCF's) Baby Boomers (6.5 CCF's)
Gen X (6.9 CCF's) Generation Y/Millennials (5.4 CCF's)
The US Census projects that fewer of the Baby Boomers and Gen X "Generation" will reside in St. Louis
(City and County). Based on the overall population projections, and the corresponding consumption
associated with each "Generation", consumption is projected to decline.
The highest consuming Households comprised of the Gen-X and Baby Boomer Generation are projected
to represent a smaller portion of the MSD customer base (56% -> 47%).
vertex one 12
PROVEN PROCESS - PROVEN PLATP5H