HomeMy Public PortalAbout2017 4th Quarter ReportPerformance
Review
Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer
District Deferred Compensation
Plan
4th Quarter 2017
Pavilion Advisory Group Inc.
227 W. Monroe Street, Suite 2020
Chicago, IL 60606
Phone: 312-798-3200
Fax: 312-902-1984
www.pavilioncorp.com
1 Capital Markets Review 1
2 Executive Summary 12
3 Performance Summary 15
4 Plan Assets 22
5 Manager Evaluation 25
6 Appendix 57
Table Of Contents
Capital Markets Review
1
Capital Markets Review
Summary
As of December 31, 2017
5.7
6.6
3.3
4.2
6.2
7.4
3.2
1.1
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.3
2.5
4.7
0.3
0.9
-0.1
23.9
21.8
14.6
25.0
31.9
37.3
13.2
7.4
3.5
2.1
7.5
0.8
8.7
1.7
12.7
3.8
2.1
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
MSCI Global ACWI IMI
S&P 500
Russell 2000
MSCI EAFE
S&P Dev ex U.S. SC
MSCI EMF
HFRI Equity Hedged*
BBG Barclays Global Agg.
BBG Barclays U.S. Agg.
WGBI ex-U.S. Hedged
BofAML High Yield Cons.
91-Day T-Bills
NAREIT
Bloomberg Commodity
DJ Brookfield Global Infra.
HFRI FoF:Cons.*
CPI
Performance: Past Quarter and Year (%)
Past Quarter Past 12 Months
HFRI data are subject to revision.
Source: FactSet & BloombergFixed Income (Bonds)Equities (Stocks)AlternativesCapping off a strong year for risk assets
In the fourth quarter,implied and realized volatility declined to near historic lows and risk
assets flourished,supported by limited headline risks and advancements in economic data.
While short on political events relative to the first nine months of the year,uncertainty still
arose from Germany’s failure to form a political coalition before year-end,Brexit
negotiation stumbles,China’s 19th party conference,and the U.S.tax bill formed through
reconciliation.
Consumer strength and economic data bode well for continued global growth prospects.
After a sluggish start in the first half of 2017,U.S.private investment accelerated in the
second half of the year,likely providing additional momentum to the economic expansion.
Core inflation remains below target in most developed markets,but economic growth and
advancing labor market conditions encouraged central bank policy makers to slow or
reduce accommodation.In October,the U.S.began reducing its balance sheet while the
European Central Bank (“ECB”)announced a scaling back of its bond purchases to
€30 billion per month starting in January.Additionally,December saw the Federal Open
Market Committee’s (“FOMC”)third rate increase of 2017,applying upward pressure to
short-and intermediate-term rates.
The U.S.yield curve flattened further dampening intermediate duration bond performance.
Within credit,economic conditions drove spread compression for most sectors,driving
outperformance relative to similar duration Treasuries.Outside the U.S.,emerging debt
concluded the year with twelve consecutive months of excess returns.
Emerging market equity performance dominated once again in the fourth quarter and for
the year (+37.3%).Developed equity markets also surged during the quarter and year,as
widespread economic growth supported company fundamentals and expectations.
Outperformance of the developed international equity markets relative to the U.S.,
however,was driven by currency movements.Performance of these markets lagged when
measured in local currencies or on a hedged basis.
After two down quarters,commodity prices turned up second half of the year,led by
industrial metals (+21.7%)and energy sub-indices (+19.6%).Income-oriented strategies,
like infrastructure,continued to generate positive performance;although,a flattening yield
curve likely held back performance.
2
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%Dec-16Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-1710 Year –2 Year U.S. Yield Curve
87
74
62
87
99 105 111 119 119 120
132
150 166
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
CY2007CY2008CY2009CY2010CY2011CY2012CY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019Actual Estimates
Capital Markets Review
Asset Class Outlook
As of December 31, 2017
Source: FactSet as of January 12, 2018
Equities
Equity markets provided strong performance in the fourth quarter with the dominant force being
ongoing synchronized global growth.For the first time in over a decade,the OECD reported
positive growth in all of the 45 countries it monitors.This strong growth powered a recovery in
corporate earnings around the world,driving global indices to double digit returns for the year.
S&P 500 Index earnings appear to have grown by a little over 11%for the year,a feat that could
be repeated in 2018 if consensus estimates for the year hold (currently 11%).Low inflation,low
and steady interest rates,as well as lower taxes provide conditions that should be supportive for
continued,though more muted,positive market returns.Market volatility was near record lows for
the year,with the S&P 500 notching 14 straight months of positive returns –a first in the history
of the index.Additionally,the largest peak to trough drawdown over the course of the year was
only 3%.This is in stark contrast to the more typical annual drawdown of almost 10%.At some
point market volatility will normalize,but it may require a more significant tightening in financial
conditions,something we do not anticipate in the first few quarters of 2018.
Fixed Income
With few exceptions,fixed income markets posted positive returns for the quarter.This
performance came despite the fact that policy makers across developed markets have either begun
or have signaled the beginning of policy normalization.Additionally,this policy normalization is
taking place despite the fact that in most markets,core inflation remains stubbornly below the
common 2%target.Policy makers have argued that the early start will allow for an extended
period of policy normalization and extremely gradual rate increases.They further argue that the
early start will allow them to target a lower terminal policy rate.In the U.S.,the FOMC anticipates
the terminal funds rate being only 3%,a rate they could achieve in late 2019 if the current pace of
increases is maintained (three rate increases are anticipated for 2018).For this reason,we do not
anticipate U.S.Treasury rates spiking materially beyond that level.This view is supported by the
degree of flattening in the Treasury curve despite the relatively low yield levels.Corporate credit
may suffer a different fate.Spreads are trading at the lower bound of the historical range with high
yield trading almost 200 basis points below its long-run average.As a result,we continue to view
high quality duration as source of diversification and protection against unanticipated market sell
offs,while lower quality credit provides little protection against late cycle risks.
Real Assets
As noted,core inflation remains constrained in most developed markets,circumstances that likely
will persist for some time.One example holding back inflation is the decline in long-run inflation
expectations,as reflected by Michigan consumer inflation expectation and five-year forward
inflation swaps.Declining expectations put downward pressure on wages and longer-term
contracts for goods and services.While we think inflation will rise modestly over the year,we
believe factors such as declining expectations will continue to constrain it.In the current low yield
environment,we maintain our view that global listed infrastructure likely provides a diversifying
income stream with a slightly lower volatility profile than commodities.We maintain a cautious
view on REITs,due to historical correlations with long duration fixed income.
S&P 500 Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Inflation Expectations
Michigan: Inflation expectations 5 year fwd 5 year
Source: Federal Reserve FRED Data
Source: Federal Reserve FRED Data
3
Capital Markets Review
Key Market Risks
As of December 31, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Recession Alert, & Pavilion Analysis
Cyclical risks remain low while policy and geopolitical risks persist
E.C.B.Policy Shift:At some point,the E.C.B.will need to begin the process of policy
normalization.This process is expected to begin with a change in forward guidance and the
path of policy normalization.While we do not anticipate a policy shift prior to mid-year
and expect policy makers seek a smooth transition,we view this transition as one of the
most significant risks in the market.Currently,long rates have been held down in part
because of the significant level of global accommodation with a significant amount being
provided by the E.C.B.The transition sets the stage for a possible spike in the Euro,as well
as a rise in longer dated rates across developed markets.Such a spike would likely cause a
tightening in financial conditions and a downturn in risk assets,as market participants
repriced the prospects for a future slowdown.
Transition to Higher Volatility Regime:Over the past 18 months,implied and realized
volatilities have been in steady decline.The decline has largely been the result of the
improved fundamentals,but as volatility declines a number of quantitative strategies can
develop outsized risk positions.In the event of a shift to a higher volatility regime,these
risk assets are sold,catalyzing a potential market decline (e.g.August 2007).Normally,
volatility regimes shift in response to a turn in the economic cycle;however,policy
missteps or geopolitical risks may also serve as catalysts.
Path of Rate Normalization:One seemingly anomalous feature of the current recovery
has been the stubborn nature of inflation relative to the level of accommodation and
recovery in growth.Across developed markets,core inflation has largely remained subdued
and below the common 2%target of most central banks.Despite this fact,policy makers
have seen fit to begin the process of normalizing policy,appearing to treat the 2%level as a
ceiling rather than a target.Such a policy runs the risk of removing accommodation more
quickly than justified by fundamentals,creating a premature slowdown and return of
deflation risks.
Fixed Income
Equities
FinancialStressesValuationsCyclicalCurrent Risk Levels
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Source:Federal Reserve FRED Data
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15Nov-15Jan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Implied VolatilityCBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index
Source:Federal Reserve FRED Data
4
Capital Markets Review
Economy
As of December 31, 2017
Growth forecasts trend higher,along with caution
A major reduction in tax rates for corporations was passed in the closing days of
December,bringing the statutory U.S.corporate tax rate down from 35%to 21%.Tax
rates on repatriated earnings were lowered to 8%and 15.5%on hard assets and cash,
respectively.Individuals’tax bracket rates were lowered,while allowable deductions were
substantially altered.The eased tax burdens are expected to contribute to expanded
economic activity and lay the groundwork for higher equity prices,based upon post-tax
profits and capital returns to shareholders.GDP is expected to be around 3%in the fourth
quarter,the first time since 2005 that three consecutive quarters topped 3%growth.
As the economy’s expansion reaches more broadly,personal earnings (wages)are heading
upward.Earnings have long held the key to the missing inflation during the current
recovery.With growth strengthening around the globe,investors have a key thought in
mind:nearly all of the past century’s recessions have coincided rising interest rates.With
the Federal Reserve on a tightening trajectory and other central banks approaching the
same course,many investors are wary of a Fed overshoot on rates snuffing out a
strengthening recovery.The average growth during the current recovery remains the
weakest of all post-WWII cycles.
Manufacturing and construction contributed significantly to fourth quarter growth.Global
GDP growth forecasts reached their highest levels,post-recession.Commodity prices rose
amidst expected demand growth in 2018,with oil breaching $60/barrel.
Source: Bloomberg
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
3/20089/20083/20099/20093/20109/20103/20119/20113/20129/20123/20139/20133/20149/20143/20159/20153/20169/20163/20179/2017PercentAverage
Private Sector Pay Growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Sep-01Sep-02Sep-03Sep-04Sep-05Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Sep-12Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16Sep-17PercentEurope U.S.Japan U.K.
Switz.Australia Canada China
Central Bank Interest Rates
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%9/19629/19679/19729/19779/19829/19879/19929/19979/20029/20079/20129/2017AnnualizedRolling 10 Year GDP Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
5
0.2%
1.5%
3.2%
3.6%
6.0%
6.1%
6.5%
6.6%
6.9%
8.6%
9.0%
9.9%
12.1%
22.1%
10.9%
-1.3%
-1.0%
21.0%
13.5%
21.8%
23.8%
22.2%
38.8%
23.0%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%
Utilities
Healthcare
Real Estate
Telecom
Energy
Industrials
Cons Staples
S&P 500
Materials
Financials
Info Tech
Cons Disc
4Q
FY
5.7%6.6%5.5%5.0%4.2%7.4%7.6%
11.4%
4.0%
11.8%
21.4%
-2.0%
24.0%21.8%22.4%
27.2%
25.0%
37.3%
54.1%
47.3%
27.5%
38.8%
36.1%
24.1%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
MSCI
ACWI
S&P
500
MSCI
World
MSCI
ACWI x
US
MSCI
EAFE
MSCI
EM
China South
Korea
Taiwan India South
Africa
Brazil
4Q
FY
Capital Markets Review
Equities
As of December 31, 2017
Fourth Quarter and Full Year S&P 500 Sector Returns
Growth Significantly Outperformed Value During the Year
Source: FactSet, S&P
Fourth Quarter and Full Year World and Emerging Market Equity Returns
Source: FactSet, MSCI
Growth and emerging markets continue to outperform
The S&P 500 Index returned +6.6%during the fourth quarter,bringing the full year return
to +21.8%.Consumer Discretionary was the strongest performing sector for the fourth
quarter but Information Technology stands out as having the strongest performance for the
year.Energy and Telecom were the only sectors to end the year with negative returns.
Developed market equity indices provided returns in the +4%to +7%range during the
fourth quarter,with the S&P 500 among the strongest at +6.6%.Emerging Market equity
returns were slightly higher,at +7.4%,led by South Africa,India,and South Korea.
For the full year,the key regional indices all provided 20%plus returns,with the foreign
markets benefitting from strong local market returns as well as currency appreciation vs.
the U.S.dollar.
Growth continued to outperform Value in the fourth quarter,capping a very strong year for
Growth.Within the U.S.and Emerging Markets were driven by the technology sector and
in particular the FAANG and BAT stocks.Emerging Markets experienced the highest
absolute return for both Growth and Value stocks during the year.Size was in favor for the
fourth quarter and full year,with U.S.Large Cap out earning U.S.Small and Mid Cap
stocks.
13.7%13.3%
7.8%
21.4%
28.1%
30.2%
25.3%
22.2%
28.9%
46.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
U.S. Large Cap U.S. Mid Cap U.S. Small Cap Int'l Developed Emerging Mkts
Value Growth
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Russell
6
Capital Markets Review
Fixed Income
As of December 31, 2017
Credit risk rewarded as global growth surprises
The Federal Reserve (“Fed”)raised rates 0.25%in December,setting the Federal Funds
Rate target at 1.25%to 1.50%.In spite of a modest rise in interest rates,all spread sectors
posted positive returns for the quarter and exceeded Treasuries on a duration-adjusted
basis.The FOMC’s median policymaker “dot”suggests three rate increases are in store for
2018.
For the fourth consecutive quarter,U.S.Treasuries generated positive absolute returns
(+0.05%).The yield curve flattened during the quarter with interest rates rising more for
shorter maturities and actually falling 12 bps for 30-year maturities.TIPS improved,
returning +1.3%on rising inflation expectations led by recent global growth data.
A backdrop of improving growth in the U.S.and abroad helped investment grade credit
spreads to tighten 8 bps and return +1.17%on the quarter,outperforming other higher
quality sectors.Within investment grade,lower credit quality outperformed higher credit
quality for the ninth consecutive quarter.High Yield corporate returns were modestly
positive (+0.47%)during the quarter as uncertainty around tax reform offset momentum
from rising equity markets and oil prices.
ABS and Non-Agency CMBS tightened by 8 bps and 9 bps,respectively,thanks to solid
fundamentals for consumers and commercial real estate.Agency MBS was one of the few
sectors that saw spread widening during the quarter (+3 bps)as strong issuance combined
with the Fed’s gradual wind-down of its balance sheet led to an increase in net supply.
Emerging Markets (“EM”)continued to benefit from the global economy’s improving
fundamentals such as narrower current account deficits,falling inflation and growing
central bank reserves.EM Hard Currency generated a +1.2%return on the quarter.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS)Date
U.S. High Yield 10-Year Median - OAS
U.S. High Yield BB Index - OAS
U.S. High Yield B Index - OAS
U.S. High Yield CCC Index - OAS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Yield to MaturityMaturity (Years)
12/30/2016 9/30/2017 12/31/2017
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17
Aggregate -114 226 93 10 -53 138 121 11 30 41 36
Agency -25 166 1 10 -133 121 148 60 20 45 21
MBS -106 91 98 40 -5 -11 52 -17 -4 47 24
ABS 52 246 24 53 44 95 92 22 32 14 24
CMBS 47 841 97 108 -28 236 158 8 34 34 78
Credit -322 693 226 -18 -169 442 335 47 99 89 89
High Yield -240 1394 923 -112 -577 1573 610 214 146 160 72
EMD (USD)-537 1503 -32 -120 3 880 627 259 72 186 77
Source: Bloomberg Barclays
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change
Duration –Adjusted Excess Returns to Treasuries (bps)
Best Period Second Best Period Worst Period Second Worst Period
Source: U.S. Dept. of The Treasury
Source: Bloomberg Barclays
U.S. High Yield Credit Valuations by Rating
7
Capital Markets Review
Alternative Investments
As of December 31, 2017
Goldman Sachs High/Low Tax Baskets vs. S&P 500L 2017 Q4)
Sources: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs
6.6%5.7%
2.0%0.4%1.1%0.5%1.3%1.8%2.3%3.9%2.0%2.8%
21.8%
24.0%
11.7%
3.5%
7.4%7.5%7.7%6.5%7.6%
17.1%
6.5%3.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
QTD YTD
Despite generating good alpha YTD, L/S
equity managers struggled in generating
alpha during the quarter given the end-of
November rotation.
Relative value fixed income and distressed
managers outpaced domestic bonds and high yield.
Due in part to a weakening dollar,
global stocks and bonds outpaced
broad hedge funds and macro
funds.
*Asset-weighted is used instead of fund-weighted,
as it is available and more indicative of the universe.Sources: Hedge Fund Research, FactSet
Hedge Funds vs Long-Only: Total Returns 2017 Q4 and YTD
Global alternatives rise with risk assets
Hedge Funds:Hedge funds generated gains across strategy types during the quarter and year
benefitting from the rally in risk assets.For the quarter,changes to tax legislation created
winners and losers across hedge funds.Long/short funds with longs in technology-and
healthcare-focused stocks were hurt,while those with long exposures to energy,industrial,and
financial stocks performed best.A DOJ lawsuit against the proposed AT&T/Time Warner
merger caused widening of arbitrage spreads during the quarter,dampening manager returns,
while distressed-oriented event-driven strategies were buoyed by continued investor optimism
in credit assets (particularly in energy).A weakening dollar and very low volatility levels were
headwinds for discretionary macro-oriented strategies,but other diversified relative-value
strategies posted positive returns.
Real Assets:Global infrastructure posted modest gains of +0.3%for the fourth quarter,which
brings performance for the year to +12.7%.Infrastructure had a healthy 2017,but the asset
class exhibited wide dispersion across sub-sectors and geographic regions.The resurgence of
economic growth in the European,and Asia Pacific regions directly benefited publicly listed
toll roads and the airport sector,which reported strong passenger traffic growth throughout
much of the year.In North America,oil &gas pipelines,specifically,MLPs,were a significant
drag on infrastructure performance.Technical factors,balance sheet restructuring,and
negative sentiment hurt MLPs,despite the broader energy industry and equity markets
registering healthy gains.
Private Capital Markets:Fundraising remained strong through the third quarter of 2017,as
267 funds closed with commitments totaling $150 billion.Aggregate private equity capital
raised year-to-date 2017 has increased to $338 billion compared to $286 billion raised in same
period of 2016.If fundraising momentum continues,2017 may well be within reach of the all-
time annual private equity fundraising record of $415 billion set in 2007.In terms of multiples,
the median EV/EBITDA multiple jumped from 9.7x in the first quarter to 10.4x in the second
quarter,but has stayed at more-or-less 10x earnings for the past 18 months.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Toll Roads Airports Europe Asia Pacific Global North
America
MLPs
2017 Infrastructure Performance
Source: Bloomberg Barclays
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
29-Sep-17 29-Oct-17 29-Nov-17 29-Dec-17Cumulative ReturnGS High Tax - S&P GS High Tax - GS Low Tax
GS Low Tax - S&P
8
Quarter
Calendar
YTD
1
Year
2
Years
3
Years
5
Years
10
Years
Equity Markets
Broad Global Equity MSCI All Country World IMI 5.7 23.9 23.9 15.9 9.5 11.0 5.0
Broad U.S. Equity Dow Jones Industrial Average 11.0 28.1 28.1 22.2 14.4 16.4 9.2
Broad U.S. Equity Russell 3000 Index 6.3 21.1 21.1 16.9 11.1 15.6 8.6
Technology Equity NASDAQ Index 6.5 29.6 29.6 18.8 14.7 19.4 11.3
U.S. Large Cap Equity S&P 500 Index 6.6 21.8 21.8 16.8 11.4 15.8 8.5
U.S. Large Cap Equity Russell 1000 Index 6.6 21.7 21.7 16.8 11.2 15.7 8.6
U.S. Large Value Equity Russell 1000 Value Index 5.3 13.7 13.7 15.5 8.7 14.0 7.1
U.S. Large Growth Equity Russell 1000 Growth Index 7.9 30.2 30.2 18.1 13.8 17.3 10.0
U.S. Mid Cap Equity Russell Mid Cap Index 6.1 18.5 18.5 16.1 9.6 15.0 9.1
U.S. Mid Cap Value Equity Russell Mid Cap Value Index 5.5 13.3 13.3 16.6 9.0 14.7 9.1
U.S. Mid Cap Growth Equity Russell Mid Cap Growth Index 6.8 25.3 25.3 16.0 10.3 15.3 9.1
U.S. Small Cap Equity Russell 2000 Index 3.3 14.6 14.6 17.9 10.0 14.1 8.7
U.S. Small Cap Value Equity Russell 2000 Value Index 2.0 7.8 7.8 19.2 9.5 13.0 8.2
U.S. Small Cap Growth Equity Russell 2000 Growth Index 4.6 22.2 22.2 16.6 10.3 15.2 9.2
International Equity MSCI EAFE Index 4.2 25.0 25.0 12.4 7.8 7.9 1.9
International Equity MSCI EAFE Index (Hedged)3.7 13.8 13.8 8.3 6.3 8.8 0.8
International Equity MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index (inc. Emerging Mkts)5.0 27.2 27.2 15.3 7.8 6.8 1.8
International Value Equity MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Value Index 4.2 22.7 22.7 15.6 6.3 5.6 1.2
International Growth Equity MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Growth Index 5.8 32.0 32.0 15.0 9.3 8.0 2.4
International Small Cap S&P Developed ex-U.S. Small Cap Index 6.2 31.9 31.9 16.7 12.9 11.7 4.8
Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets Index 7.4 37.3 37.3 23.5 9.1 4.3 1.7
Bond Markets
Core Plus Bond Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index 0.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.2 2.1 4.0
Global Bonds Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index 1.1 7.4 7.4 4.7 2.0 0.8 3.1
Total Bond Market Bloomberg Barclays Universal Bond Index 0.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 2.8 2.5 4.3
Long Duration Bonds Bloomberg Barclays Long Credit Index 3.2 12.2 12.2 11.2 5.7 5.1 7.7
Short-Duration Bonds BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. Treasury (1-3 Year)-0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.4
Global Bonds Citigroup-WGBI ex-U.S. Index (Unhedged)1.6 10.3 10.3 6.0 2.0 -0.3 2.4
Global Bonds Citigroup-WGBI ex-U.S. Index (Hedged)1.1 2.1 2.1 3.6 2.9 3.9 4.2
Treasury Inflation Protection Bloomberg Barclays 1-10 Year TIPS Index 0.5 1.9 1.9 2.9 1.8 0.1 2.8
Municipal Bonds Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index 0.7 5.4 5.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 4.5
Cash 91-Day T-Bills Index 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3
Alternatives
Commodities Bloomberg Commodity Index 4.7 1.7 1.7 6.6 -5.0 -8.5 -6.8
U.S. Public Real Estate FTSE NAREIT All Equity REIT Index 2.5 8.7 8.7 8.7 6.7 9.8 7.8
Global Listed Infrastructure DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure Comp. Index 0.3 12.7 12.7 12.2 2.5 8.1 7.0
Diversified Hedge Funds HFRI FoF Conservative Index 1.1 4.1 4.1 3.0 2.1 3.4 0.9
Long/Short Equity HFRI Equity Hedge Index 3.5 13.5 13.5 9.4 5.8 6.6 3.2
Inflation
Inflation CPI -0.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.6
Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized.
Capital Markets Review
Index Returns
As of December 31, 2017
9
��S &