Loading...
HomeMy Public PortalAbout2011 2nd Quarter ReportInvestment Performance AnalysisAugust 2011Kristin Finney-Cooke, CAIA, Senior ConsultantMichael J. Valchine, CAIA, ConsultantMetropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Table of ContentsMarket Commentary & Update 3Executive Summary 17Investment Performance Analysis 33Page2 Market Commentary & Update " The second quarter of 2011 was dominated by macro-economic concerns including: Slowing growth and high unemployment in the US The end of monetary stimulus (QE2) The impending US debt ceiling The rolling peripheral European debt crisis Elevated commodities prices" As a result, equity markets produced tepid (albeit volatile) returns while bond markets posted positive results as interest rates fell" In this highly uncertain environment, while we do not believe immediate risk-reduction needs to be pursued, a risk-balanced approach to asset allocation remains paramount We expect the US debt ceiling to be addressed before catalyzing a default The Greek debt crisis appears to have been handled in the short-term Key market  Fear indicators such as the VIX are not flashing red Nevertheless, global imbalances are seldom resolved gradually& future volatility spikes remain likely " Finally, opportunities for higher risk-adjusted returns exist in pockets of the capital markets: By increasing exposure to emerging markets debt and equity By taking on reasonable exposure to illiquidity (especially distressed) By seeking active returns from strategies that can take advantage of macro-driven events By considering less directional approaches to portfolio structuring, i.e. equity long short as equity substituteSecond Quarter 2011 NEPC Observations and Opportunities4 6/30/2011Market Environment - OverviewQtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.World Equity BenchmarksMSCI World World 0.5% 5.3% 30.5% 0.5% 2.3% 4.0%Qtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.Domestic Equity BenchmarksS&P 500 Large Core 0.1% 6.0% 30.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7%Russell 1000 Large Core 0.1% 6.4% 31.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2%Russell 1000 Growth Large Growth 0.8% 6.8% 35.0% 5.0% 5.3% 2.2%Russell 1000 Value Large Value-0.5%5.9% 28.9% 2.3% 1.2% 4.0%S&P Mid Cap 400 Mid Core-0.7%8.6% 39.4% 7.8% 6.6% 7.9%Russell 2000 Small Core-1.6%6.2% 37.4% 7.8% 4.1% 6.3%Russell 2000 Growth Small Growth-0.6%8.6% 43.5% 8.4% 5.8% 4.6%Russell 2000 Value Small Value-2.6%3.8% 31.4% 7.1% 2.2% 7.5%NAREIT All Composite REIT 2.9% 10.1% 33.1% 5.7% 1.7% 10.0%Qtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.International Equity BenchmarksMSCI EAFE Int'l Developed 1.6% 5.0% 30.4%-1.8%1.5% 5.7%MSCI EME Em. Mkt. Eqty. -1.1%0.9% 27.8% 4.2% 11.4% 16.2%MSCI ACWI ex US International 0.4% 3.8% 29.7%-0.3%3.7% 7.5%S&P EPAC SmallCap Small Cap Int'l 2.0% 6.4% 37.3% 2.3% 3.7% 10.4%Qtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.Domestic Fixed Income BenchmarksBarclays Aggregate Core Bonds 2.3% 2.7% 3.9% 6.5% 6.5% 5.7%Barclays High Yield High Yield 1.1% 5.0% 15.6% 12.7% 9.3% 9.0%Barclays 1-10 Muni. Municipal Bond 2.5% 3.2% 3.7% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6%Barclays 1-10 TIPS Inflation 3.0% 5.4% 7.5% 4.6% 6.5% 6.4%90 Day T-Bill Cash 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.0% 2.1%Qtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.Global Fixed Income BenchmarksCitigroup World Govt Bond Global Bonds 3.3% 4.0% 10.5% 5.8% 7.3% 7.9%J.P. Morgan EMBI Plus Em. Mkt. Bonds 0.7% 5.0% 8.7% 8.4% 8.2% 10.4%Qtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.Diversified BenchmarkBalanced Index * Diversified 1.0% 5.1% 23.3% 4.8% 4.6% 5.7%Qtr. Ytd1 Yr.3 Yr.5 Yr.10 Yr.Alternative BenchmarksDJ UBS Commodity Index Commodities-6.7% -2.6%25.9%-11.9% -0.1%6.6%NCREIF Property Index Real Estate n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aHFRI Fund of Funds Hedge Fund of Funds-1.2% -0.3%6.6%-1.8%1.5% 3.9%CS Tremont Composite All Hedge Funds-0.6%1.6% 12.1% 2.5% 5.5% 7.1%CS Tremont Event Driven Event Driven-1.7%1.3% 12.1% 4.6% 6.6% 8.7%CS Tremont Long-Short Long-Short-1.5%0.8% 13.8% 2.0% 5.5% 6.8%CS Tremont Market Neutral Market Neutral 2.0% 5.5% 9.6%-14.5% -5.9%0.5%* 35% LC, 10% SC, 12% Int'l, 3% Emerging, 25% FI, 5% HY, 5% Global FI, 5% REITS5 6/30/2011Economic Environment6 6/30/2011Components of U.S. GDP7 6/30/2011Key Economic Indicators8 6/30/2011Economic Environment9 Market Summary10Source: ICC Domestic Equity11Source: ICC International Equity12Source: ICC Emerging Equity13Source: ICC Currency Markets & Yield Curve14Source: ICC Bond Markets15Source: ICC 2011SectorIndex2004200520062007200820092010JanFebMarQTR 1AprMayJunQTR 22011REITS Wilshire REIT 33.2% 13.8% 36.0%-17.6% -39.2%28.6% 28.6% 3.5% 4.6%-1.4%6.7% 5.8% 1.6%-3.4%3.9% 10.9%SC Growth R2000 Growth 14.3% 4.1% 13.4% 7.1%-38.5%34.5% 29.1%-0.6%5.9% 3.8% 9.2% 3.6%-2.0% -2.1% -0.6%8.6%SMid Cap R2500 18.3% 8.1% 16.2% 1.4%-36.8%34.4% 26.7% 1.3% 4.9% 2.3% 8.7% 2.9%-1.2% -2.2% -0.6%8.1%LC Growth R1000 Growth 6.3% 5.3% 9.1% 11.8%-38.4%37.2% 16.7% 2.5% 3.3% 0.1% 6.0% 3.4%-1.1% -1.4%0.8% 6.8%Large CapRussell 1000 11.4% 6.3% 15.5% 5.8%-37.6%28.4% 16.1% 2.4% 3.5% 0.3% 6.2% 3.0%-1.1% -1.8%0.1% 6.4%Small Cap Russell 2000 18.3% 4.6% 18.4%-1.6% -33.8%27.2% 26.9%-0.3%5.5% 2.6% 7.9% 2.6%-1.9% -2.3% -1.6%6.2%S&P 500 S&P 500 10.9% 4.9% 15.8% 5.5%-37.0%26.5% 15.1% 2.4% 3.4% 0.0% 5.9% 3.0%-1.1% -1.7%0.1% 6.0%LC Value R1000 Value 16.5% 7.1% 22.3%-0.2% -36.8%19.7% 15.5% 2.3% 3.7% 0.4% 6.5% 2.7%-1.1% -2.1% -0.5%5.9%Emerging FI BC Emerging ($US) 11.9% 12.3% 10.0% 5.2%-14.8%34.2% 12.8%-0.3%0.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 3.4% 5.0%Intl. Dev. EAFE (net) 20.3% 13.5% 26.3% 11.2%-43.4%31.8% 7.8% 2.4% 3.3%-2.2%3.4% 6.0%-3.0% -1.3%1.6% 5.0%High Yield BC HY 11.1% 2.7% 11.9% 1.9%-26.2%58.2% 15.1% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%-1.0%1.1% 5.0%BalancedDiversified* 12.8% 6.4% 15.2% 5.9%-26.9%24.8% 14.4% 1.3% 2.5% 0.2% 3.9% 2.9%-0.6% -1.3%1.0% 4.9%Muni BondsBC Muni (unadj) 4.5% 3.5% 4.8% 3.4%-2.5%12.9% 2.4%-0.7%1.6%-0.3%0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 3.9% 4.4%Global FI Citigroup WGBI 10.4%-6.9%6.1% 11.0% 10.9% 2.6% 5.2%-0.0%0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 3.2%-0.1%0.2% 3.3% 4.0%SC Value R2000 Value 22.3% 4.7% 23.5%-9.8% -28.9%20.6% 24.5% 0.1% 5.1% 1.4% 6.6% 1.6%-1.8% -2.5% -2.7%3.8%Core FI BC Aggregate 4.3% 2.4% 4.3% 7.0% 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 1.3%-0.3%2.3% 2.7%Intl. Emerging EM (net) 25.6% 34.0% 32.2% 39.4%-53.3%78.5% 18.9%-2.7% -0.9%5.9% 2.1% 3.1%-2.6% -1.5% -1.1%0.9%CommoditiesDJ UBS Commodity 9.2% 21.4% 2.1% 16.2%-35.7%18.9% 16.8% 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 4.4% 3.5%-5.1% -5.0% -6.7% -2.6%* 35% LC, 10% SC, 12% Intl, 3% Emerging, 25% FI, 5% HY, 5% Global FI, 5% REITSPERFORMANCE THRU 6/30/20116/30/2011Investment Market Update: Multiple SectorsJune 30 Market Update Sources: Lehman Live, Bloomberg, Wilshire16 Executive Summary " Asset Growth and Allocation At quarter end, the assets in the Fund totaled approximately $207.7 million, an increase of $5.3 million over the quarter, reflecting investment gains of $2.6 million and net inflows of $2.6 million. The Fund s allocation to equities was 55.0% at the end of the quarter (including equity allocations of GMO and PIMCO All Asset), well below the median public fund s allocation to equities of 55.8%. The Fund s equity commitment ranked in the 50th percentile of the public funds universe*." Performance The Fund posted a 1.4% return in the quarter, ranking in the 39th percentile of public funds, nationwide. " Active management added 30 bps For the one-year period ending June 2011, the Fund posted a return of 19.8%, ranking in the 68th percentile of public funds." Active management added 120 bps  For the three-year period, performance was 5.7%, which ranked in the 24th percentile of public funds. The five-year return of 6.5% ranked in the 6th percentile." Over the above time periods, the composite, policy index and allocation index have outperformed the median public fund; additionally, active management has added value " Higher relative returns were earned with lower levels of risk than the median public fund over the three- and five- year periods.Executive Summary  Total Fund*As of June 30, 2011 the public funds universe included 175 funds with assets of approximately $1.1 trillion.18 Total Fund Asset Growth Summary19 Performance20 Performance – Public Funds Universe21 Performance Contd. – Public Funds Universe22*The above data is for trailing one-year periods Three Year Risk vs. Return – Public Funds UniverseComposite23 Five Year Risk vs. Return – Public Funds UniverseComposite24 Manager Executive Summary25 Manager Executive Summary Contd.26 Change in Investment Process•Buford, Dickson, Harper and Sparrow went live with an enhanced investment process on July 1, 2010. After a review of 2007 and 2009, performance years with the largest variance, the investment team identified characteristics that had positive contributions during those periods resulting in the following changes to the investment process:•Added additional metrics to the Fundamental Ranking step–Consistency of positive earnings surprises–Duration and volatility of the current growth rate•Added P/E growth ratio to the Valuation Ranking step•Added a Technical Analysis/Technical Ranking step–This step was not included previously. This step seeks to analyze trends based on metrics such as: moving averages, volume etc. over five-years, one-year and six month price charts•Added a Final Ranking step–Combines the Fundamental, Valuation and Technical rankings. The top ranked ten potential stocks move on for further consideration. Current holdings are put through the same four ranking steps and compared to the top ten potential stocks for inclusion to the portfolioNEPC Assessment•NEPC considers any changes to the investment process as a significant event. We will continue to monitor affects of these changes to the process and overall performance of the strategy going forward. Manager Update – BDH&S27 Organizational Change•Effective June 30, 2011, Brad Hilsabeck was named GMO's CEO and a member of the board of directors - succeeding Mark Mayer.–Mr. Mayer and the board reached a mutual decision for him to step down as CEO after 2 years. This appears to be driven by cultural/relationship challenges as opposed to failure to meet business objectives.•Mr. Hilsabeck has been the Head of Global Distribution since 2003, partner since 2005, and a member of GMO's Executive Committee.NEPC Assessment•NEPC has reviewed this position and recommends “No Action.”–Given Hilsabeck’s role in the firm since 2003, we view this as a non-event from an investment perspective and we are hopeful that by filling the CEO position with an internal candidate, some of the cultural challenges that were occurring are eliminated going forward. We will continue to monitor and follow-up with individual investment teams as we have meetings over the next few months.Manager Update – GMO28 Total Fund Asset AllocationTarget Asset AllocationNote: Totals include manager cash; totals may not add to 100% due to rounding29Equities40.3%Equities38.0%Fixed Income29.9%Fixed Income33.0%Alts19.9%Alts19.0%Actual Asset Allocation Asset Allocation History30 Commitment To Equity – Public Funds Universe31 Actual vs. Policy Weights32Note: Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. Asset ClassTargetAllocationActualAllocationVariancefrom TargetEquity 38.0% 40.3% 2.3%Large Cap Equity 20.0% 20.5% 0.5%Small Cap Equity 5.0% 6.6% 1.6%International Equity 10.0% 9.9% -0.1%Emerging Markets Equity 3.0% 3.3% 0.3%Fixed Income 33.0% 29.9% -3.1%Core Fixed Income 15.0% 14.2% -0.8%High Yield 5.0% 5.6% 0.6%Global Bonds 8.0% 8.2% 0.2%Credit Opportunity 5.0% 1.9% -3.1%GTAA 10.0% 9.9% -0.1%Real Assets 10.0% 8.8% -1.2%Absolute Return 4.0% 5.9% 1.9%Market Neutral 5.0% 4.6% -0.4%Cash 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%Total 100.0% 100.0% Investment Performance Analysis Manager Allocation34 Performance Summary35 Performance Summary Continued36 Performance Summary Continued37 Performance Summary Continued38 Domestic Equity - Vanguard Institutional Fund39Equity Sector DiversificationVanguard InstitutionalRussell 1000 Value Consumer Discretionary 10.6 10.6Consumer Staples 10.6 10.6Energy 12.7 12.7Financials 15.1 15.1Health Care 11.7 11.7Industrials 11.3 11.3Information Tech 17.8 17.8Materials 3.7 3.7Telecom 3.1 3.1Utilities 3.4 3.4‐10‐5051015202530Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Windsor II Fund 6/30/2011Windsor II Fund 6/30/2010Top 10 HoldingsExxon MobilApple IncInt'l Business MachinesChevronGeneral ElectricMicrosoft CorpAT&TJohnson & JohnsonProctor & GamblePfizerTen Largest Holdings = 18.4% total net assetsSource: Vanguard Domestic Equity - Vanguard Windsor II40Equity CharacteristicsWindsor II Fund Russell 1000 Value Number of Stocks 264 656Median Market Cap $49.4 billion $38.2 billionP/E 13.7x 14.8xP/B 1.9x 1.5xReturn on Equity 19.50% 13.60%Earnings Growth Rate 1.70% 0.40%Foreign Holdings 6.40%‐10‐5051015202530Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Windsor II Fund 6/30/2011Windsor II Fund 6/30/2010Top 10 HoldingsConoco PhillipsInt'l Business MachinesPfizerJPMorganMicrosoftWells FargoPhilip MorrisOccidental PetroleumIntel CorpRaytheonTen Largest Holdings = 26.1% total net assetsSource: Vanguard Domestic Equity – BDH & S41Source: BDH&S Domestic Equity - Waddell & Reed42Source: Waddell & Reed Domestic Equity - Kennedy43Source: Kennedy Domestic Equity - Times Square44‐10‐5051015202530Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information TechMaterialsTelecomUtilities Windsor II Fund 6/30/2011Windsor II Fund 6/30/2010Source: Times Square 0510152025Weight %Morgan Stanley MSCI EAFEPrice / Sales 1.00 0.93Price / Earnings 12.13 11.36Price / Cash Flow 4.81 4.01Price / Book 1.69 1.42Dividend Yield 3.55 3.16CharacteristicsSector Weights3Yr. Risk vs. Return (Developed Int’l)Country AllocationInternational Equity - Morgan Stanley-13-11-9-7-5-3-113570 102030405060ReturnStd Dev.Morgan Stanley Int'lMSCI EAFE (NET)45Morgan StanleyAmericas 2.46United Kingdom 33.80Europe Developed 33.71Japan 25.79Asia ex. Japan 4.23 CharacteristicsTop 10 Holdings3Yr. Risk vs. Return (Emerging Markets)Country AllocationInternational Equity - Morgan Stanley Emerging Equity-8-6-4-202468101215 25 35 45 55ReturnStd Dev.Morgan Stanley EMMSCI EMERGING MARKETS (NET)46Morgan StanleyMSCI EM FreePrice / Sales 1.19 1.08Price / Earnings 13.09 11.46Price / Book 2.09 1.74Price / Cash Flow 5.56 4.20Morgan StanleyMSCI EM FreeSAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO 2.8 2.7LUKOIL HOLDING 2.6 0.9AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV 2.5 1.5PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA 1.9 3.4VALE SA 1.7 2.8SBERBANK OF RUSSIA 1.7 0.9NASPERS LTD 1.6 0.6ITAU UNIBANCO MULTIPL 1.6 1.4CHINA CONTSRUCTION BANK 1.5 1.1TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MFG 1.4 1.5SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO 2.8 2.7LUKOIL HOLDING 2.6 0.9Morgan StanleyMSCI EM FreeASIA53.6 57.6EMERGING EURO. M. EAST, AFRICA23.5 19.0LATIN AMERICA19.0 23.3CASH2.9 0.0OTHER 1.0 0.0 CharacteristicsAverage Maturity % HeldCredit DistrutionDistribution AnalysisDomestic Fixed Income (High Yield) – Penn Capital4705101520253035404550 Global Fixed Income - Brandywine48Source: Brandywine Domestic Fixed Income – Income Research49Source: Income Research Loomis, Sayles & Company – Credit Asset Trust50Top 10 HoldingsUS Dollar USD 6.85MEG Energy Corp 1.35Visant TLB 1.25Harbor Freight 1.24Rowan Companies 1.22CoreLogic 1.13Pride Int'l 1.04ILFC TL 0.98Montpelier RE Holdings 0.94A Surion Corp 0.91Source: Loomis Absolute Return – PIMCO All Asset FundSource: PIMCO51 Asset AllocationTop 10 HoldingsRisk ProfileTactical Asset Allocation - GMO Global Balanced52Source: GMOMicrosoft Corp. 2.7%Johnson & Johnson 2.6%Oracle Corp. 2.1%Philip Morris International Inc. 2.1%Pfizer Inc. 2.0%GlaxoSmithKline PLC 1.9%Cisco Systems Inc. 1.9%Nestle S.A. 1.8%Coca-Cola Co. 1.8%Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 1.6%Total S.A. 1.6%Sanofi-Aventis S.A. 1.5%Exxon Mobil Corp. 1.5%Apple Inc. 1.4%Royal Dutch Shell PLC 1.4% Portfolio CharacteristicsSector Allocation Market Neutral - PyramisSource: Pyramis53 Real Estate – UBS Trumbull Property FundSource: UBS54 Wellington Diversified Inflation Hedges55Source: Wellington " NEPC uses, as its data source, the plan s custodian bank or fund service company, and NEPC relies on those sources for security pricing, calculation of accruals, and all transactions, including income payments, splits, and distributions. While NEPC has exercised reasonable professional care in preparing this report, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of all source information contained within." The Investment Performance Analysis (IPA) is provided as a management aid for the client s internal use only. Portfolio performance reported in the IPA does not constitute a recommendation by NEPC." Information in this report on market indices and security characteristics is received from sources external to NEPC. While efforts are made to ensure that this external data is accurate, NEPC cannot accept responsibility for errors that may occur." S&P Index data is provided courtesy of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC.Information Disclosure56