HomeMy Public PortalAbout2012 3rd Quarter ReportInvestment Performance AnalysisAs of September 30, 2012December 11, 2012Kristin Finney-Cooke, CAIA, Senior ConsultantKristen Jackson, CFA, Sr. AnalystThe Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Employees’ Pension Plan
Table of ContentsInvestment Outlook1Market Environment2Executive Summary3Asset Allocation4Manager Pages 5 TabThe Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Employees’ Pension PlanSeptember 30, 20121
Investment Outlook2
" S t r o n g p e r f o r m a n c e a c r o s s c a p i t a l m a r k e t s i n 2 0 1 2 W i t h f u r t h e r s u p p o r t f o r u p s i d e w i t h r e c e n t s t i m u l a t i o n " T h e r e a r e s t i l l m a j o r r i s k s t h a t w i l l a f f e c t m a r k e t s i n t h e n e a r - t e r m E u r o p e " M a j o r p r o g r e s s o n a p l a n t o w a r d s l o n g - t e r m s u s t a i n a b i l i t y b u t i s i t e n o u g h ? " W i l l p o l i t i c s g e t i n t h e w a y o f p r o g r e s s ? U S F i s c a l C l i f f " W i l l C o n g r e s s b e a b l e t o r e a c h a b a l a n c e d c o m p r o m i s e t o a v o i d a $ 6 0 0 b i l l i o n h i t t o G D P ? " H o w l o n g c a n t h e U S r u n a h i g h d e f i c i t i f c u r r e n t p o l i c i e s a r e e x t e n d e d ? C h i n a " S l o w i n g d o w n & b u t h o w b a d i s 8 % g r o w t h ? I n f l a t i o n " D o Q E 3 a n d E C B b o n d p u r c h a s e s c r e a t e l o n g - t e r m i n f l a t i o n p r e s s u r e s ? " B a l a n c e i s b e s t N o t m a n y o b v i o u s t a c t i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s , b u t o b v i o u s m a c r o r i s k s " I t r e m a i n s m o s t a p p r o p r i a t e t o m a i n t a i n b a l a n c e o f r i s k e x p o s u r e s T h e r e a r e s t i l l o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n c e r t a i n p a r t s o f c a p i t a l m a r k e t s " L e s s l i q u i d d i s t r e s s e d a s s e t s a n d s t r u c t u r e d c r e d i t ( b u t t i m e l i n e e x t e n d e d w i t h p a i n b e i n g s p r e a d o u t ) " N o n - U S e q u i t i e s ( b u t w i t h d o w n s i d e r i s k s ) O v e r v i e w S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 1 2 3
" G l o b a l e q u i t y m a r k e t s r e b o u n d e d a f t e r a s l o w s e c o n d q u a r t e r T h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e a n d E C B h e l p e d d r i v e e q u i t y m a r k e t s w i t h s t i m u l a t i v e p o l i c y S e c o n d q u a r t e r l o s s e s d u e i n p a r t t o u n c e r t a i n t y a n d s i g n s o f s l o w i n g g r o w t h w e r e r e v e r s e d b y n e w s o f u n l i m i t e d s u p p o r t f r o m D r a g h i a n d B e r n a n k e " E c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t a n d u n d e r l y i n g g r o w t h p r o s p e c t s s t i l l s l o w i n g U S g r o w t h s l o w b u t s t a b l e " Q 3 G D P r e p o r t e d a t 2 . 0 % " Q 2 G D P o r i g i n a l l y r e p o r t e d a t 2 . 1 % , r e v i s e d t o 1 . 3 % B R I C c o u n t r i e s a l l h a v e p r o j e c t e d 2 0 1 2 G D P g r o w t h b e l o w 1 0 y e a r a v e r a g e s " T r e a s u r y y i e l d s r e m a i n n e a r r e c o r d l o w s " C r e d i t m a r k e t s g e n e r a l l y r o s e , b e n e f i t i n g f r o m n o r m a l i z i n g v a l u a t i o n s a n d g e n e r a l o p t i m i s m a s a r e s u l t o f m o n e t a r y s t i m u l u s " C o m m o d i t i e s r a l l i e d t o p o s t s i g n i f i c a n t g a i n s i n t h e t h i r d q u a r t e r T h i r d Q u a r t e r M a r k e t s S u m m a r y S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 1 2 4
Asset Class Performance Through September 30, 2012September 30, 2012Source: Bloomberg2.1%4.0%5.6% 5.6%10.1%12.0%12.1%12.1%14.2%16.4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%BC Treasury BC Agg Hedge Funds Commodities EAFE Emerg.MarketsHY Bonds EM Loc.BondsUS SmallCapS&P 5005
012345678910Option Adjusted Spread Corporate Spreads Investment GradeHigh YieldCredit Has Rallied Significantly in 2012September 30, 2012Source: BarclaysDown over 250 bps from 2011 peakDown almost 90 bps from 2011 peak6
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Unemployment Rate•Strong asset performance in recent months is in the face of continued economic sluggishness–Stubbornly high unemployment despite September drop–Slowing economic growth•Outperformance across risky asset categories has been driven by stimulation not by underlying fundamentals–Reduces the potential for higher returns in the future Economic IndicatorsSeptember 30, 2012Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/30Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/30‐5‐4‐3‐2‐101232003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Chicago Fed National Activity 3‐Mo Mvg. Avg.7
The Fed Has Proven It Can Make The Stock Market Go UpSeptember 30, 2012Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/306007008009001000110012001300140015001600Jan‐08Mar‐08May‐08Jul‐08Sep‐08Nov‐08Jan‐09Mar‐09May‐09Jul‐09Sep‐09Nov‐09Jan‐10Mar‐10May‐10Jul‐10Sep‐10Nov‐10Jan‐11Mar‐11May‐11Jul‐11Sep‐11Nov‐11Jan‐12Mar‐12May‐12Jul‐12Sep‐12S&P 500 and Periods of Fed ActivityQE 1QE 2OperationTwistQE 3/Op. Twist. Ext.8
" P o s i t i v e m o m e n t u m f r o m l e a d e r s h i p c h a n g e s ( I t a l y , G r e e c e ) a n d L o n g - T e r m R e f i n a n c i n g O p e r a t i o n s ( L T R O ) c a r r y o v e r t o n e w y e a r S p r e a d s n a r r o w a n d e q u i t i e s r a l l y " R a t i n g s a g e n c i e s d o w n g r a d e m a n y E u r o p e a n n a t i o n s " P r i v a t e h o l d e r s o f G r e e k d e b t a g r e e t o r e s t r u c t u r i n g " F r a n c o i s e H o l l a n d e w i n s F r e n c h p r e s i d e n c y a m i d s t w a v e o f s o c i a l i s t s u p p o r t F e a r s o f a G r e e k e x i t f r o m t h e E u r o z o n e b e g i n t o r i s e u n d e r S o c i a l i s t p a r t y p r e s s u r e b u t e l e c t i o n s t i l t t o w a r d s N e w D e m o c r a c y p a r t y w i t h g o a l o f s t a y i n g i n E U " S p a i n g e t s a � 1 0 0 b i l l i o n E U b a i l o u t " C y p r u s g e t s a b a i l o u t " P e r i p h e r a l s p r e a d s s o a r " E U l e a d e r s m e e t a t t h e e n d o f J u n e A n n o u n c e a b r o a d e n i n g o f E S M u s a g e a n d e a r l y s k e t c h e s o f b a n k i n g u n i o n " M a r i o D r a g h i ( E C B P r e s i d e n t ) p l e d g e s t o d o w h a t e v e r i t t a k e s " E C B a n n o u n c e s p l a n o f u n l i m i t e d b o n d p u r c h a s i n g p r o g r a m ( w i t h c o n d i t i o n a l i t y ) " G e r m a n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l c o u r t r u l e s i n f a v o r o f E S M " E C B p r o v i d e s m o r e d e t a i l s o n S i n g l e S u p e r v i s o r y M e c h a n i s m f o r b a n k s A T i m e l i n e o f T h e E u r o p e a n D e b t C r i s i s i n 2 0 1 2 � 1 . 2 0 � 1 . 2 5 � 1 . 3 0 � 1 . 3 5 J a n A p r J u l E U R / U S D Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 S o u r c e : S t . L o u i s F e d S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 1 2 9
02004006008001000120014001600Basis PointsEurozone CDSPortugalItalyGermanySpainPeripheral Europe – Credit Spreads Have Narrowed Due to Recent AnnouncementsSeptember 30, 2012Source: Bloomberg, as of 9/3010
" A n a n t i - a u s t e r i t y r a l l y o u t s i d e t h e S p a n i s h p a r l i a m e n t b u i l d i n g i n M a d r i d t u r n e d v i o l e n t , a h e a d o f a b u d g e t p r e s e n t e d b y M a r i a n o R a j o y , t h e p r i m e m i n i s t e r & " A n t o n i s S a m a r a s , t h e G r e e k p r i m e m i n i s t e r , a p p r o v e d a p a c k a g e o f � 1 1 . 5 b i l l i o n ( $ 1 4 . 8 b i l l i o n ) i n b u d g e t c u t s . T h e f o l l o w i n g d a y a g e n e r a l s t r i k e w a s h e l d & " T h e P o r t u g u e s e i n c r e a s e d w o r k e r s p e n s i o n c o n t r i b u t i o n s b y r a i s i n g t a x e s a n d c u t t i n g w a g e s . P o r t u g a l , t o o , b r a c e d i t s e l f f o r a n t i - a u s t e r i t y p r o t e s t s . N o t A s R o s y A s t h e M a r k e t s A r e S u g g e s t i n g & S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 1 2 1 1
" O n D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 2 0 1 2 , a n u m b e r o f p r o v i s i o n s r e l a t e d t o t a x r e l i e f , u n e m p l o y m e n t a n d h e a l t h b e n e f i t s , a n d d i s c r e t i o n a r y g o v e r n m e n t s p e n d i n g a r e s c h e d u l e d t o e x p i r e B u s h T a x C u t s S o c i a l S e c u r i t y P a y r o l l T a x E m e r g e n c y U n e m p l o y m e n t B e n e f i t s R e d u c t i o n s i n M e d i c a r e p a y m e n t s &