HomeMy Public PortalAbout2013 1st Quarter ReportInvestment Performance AnalysisAs of March 31, 2013May 1, 2013Kristin Finney-Cooke, CAIA, Senior ConsultantKristen Jackson, CFA, Sr. AnalystThe Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Employees’ Pension Plan
Table of ContentsInvestment Outlook1Market Environment2Executive Summary3Asset Allocation4Manager Summary5Manager Pages 6 TabThe Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Employees’ Pension PlanMarch 31, 20131
Investment Outlook2
" F o c u s o n s t r a t e g i c a l l o c a t i o n s i n a t i m e w i t h f e w t a c t i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s R e b a l a n c e a c r o s s a n d w i t h i n a s s e t c l a s s e s W i t h r u n i n U S e q u i t i e s , c a p t u r i n g g a i n s a n d r e b a l a n c i n g t o e m e r g i n g a p p e a r s a t t r a c t i v e " P o s i t i o n f o r a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f m a c r o - d r i v e n t h e m e s V o l a t i l i t y b e c a m e e v e n m o r e s u b d u e d b u t i s u n l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t R e m a i n v i g i l a n t a n d p r o v i d e s k i l l e d m a n a g e r s ( G A A , u n c o n s t r a i n e d f i x e d i n c o m e ) w i t h f l e x i b i l i t y t o m a n a g e r i s k e x p o s u r e s " U s e R i s k P a r i t y a s a s t a b l e f o u n d a t i o n o f a d i v e r s i f i e d p r o g r a m O n e q u a r t e r o f l o w e r p e r f o r m a n c e r e l a t i v e t o e q u i t y h e a v y p o r t f o l i o s i s n o r e a s o n t o a b a n d o n a p p r o a c h " C o n t i n u e b u i l d i n g a l l o c a t i o n s i n e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s a n d r e a l a s s e t s E m e r g i n g e q u i t i e s l o o k m o r e a t t r a c t i v e a f t e r u n d e r p e r f o r m i n g i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r I n f l a t i o n r e m a i n s s u b d u e d r e c e n t c o m m o d i t y p e r f o r m a n c e m a y o f f e r a r e a s o n a b l e e n t r y p o i n t " A l l o c a t e t o l e s s l i q u i d s t r a t e g i e s w i t h p a t i e n c e C o n t i n u e t o p r u d e n t l y d e p l o y c a p i t a l p a r t i c u l a r l y t o l e n d i n g s t r a t e g i e s K e y T h e m e s i n A s s e t A l l o c a t i o n N E P C 2 0 1 3 G e n e r a l A c t i o n s f o r C l i e n t s ( w i t h u p d a t e d c o m m e n t s a s o f 3 / 3 1 ) 3
" G l o b a l e q u i t y m a r k e t s s u r g e d t o s t a r t 2 0 1 3 ; l e a d b y U S e q u i t i e s T h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e c o n t i n u e d t o d r i v e e q u i t y m a r k e t s w i t h s t i m u l a t i v e p o l i c y a s m a r k e t v o l a t i l i t y w a s s u p p r e s s e d M a r k e t s s h r u g g e d o f f w o r r i e s o f f i s c a l t i g h t e n i n g a s i n v e s t o r s c o n f o r m e d u n r e s e r v e d l y t o t h e r i s k - o n e n v i r o n m e n t T h o u g h e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s l a g g e d , i n t e r n a t i o n a l d e v e l o p e d e q u i t i e s p o s t e d s o l i d g a i n s , d r i v e n b y h e a v y m o n e t a r y s t i m u l u s i n J a p a n " E c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t a n d u n d e r l y i n g g r o w t h p r o s p e c t s s t i l l s l o w i n g U S G D P g r o w t h r e v i s e d t o 0 . 4 % i n Q 4 , b u t i n i t i a l Q 1 p r o j e c t i o n s a r o u n d 3 % a r e m o r e p r o m i s i n g A l l B R I C a n d m o s t E u r o z o n e c o u n t r i e s h a v e p r o j e c t e d 2 0 1 3 G D P g r o w t h b e l o w 1 0 y e a r a v e r a g e s " T r e a s u r y y i e l d s r e m a i n n e a r r e c o r d l o w s , b u t s a w s l i g h t i n c r e a s e s " C r e d i t m a r k e t s w e r e m i x e d , a s r i s k i e r m a r k e t s e g m e n t s c o n t i n u e d t o t h r i v e b u t i n v e s t m e n t g r a d e a n d c o r e b o n d s s t r u g g l e d , p o s t i n g m a r g i n a l q u a r t e r l y l o s s e s " C o m m o d i t i e s r e m a i n e d i n a s l i d e , r e c o r d i n g a s e c o n d c o n s e c u t i v e n e g a t i v e q u a r t e r a s g o l d r e c e d e d f u r t h e r f r o m 2 0 1 2 h i g h s F i r s t Q u a r t e r M a r k e t s S u m m a r y 4
" S t r o n g p e r f o r m a n c e o f e q u i t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e U S , a p p e a r s t o b o r r o w f r o m t h e f u t u r e " C o n t i n u e d m o n e t a r y s t i m u l a t i o n , c o m b i n e d w i t h a l o w v o l a t i l i t y l a n d s c a p e , h a s p r o v e n a p r e v a i l i n g p a n a c e a " M a j o r m a c r o r i s k s r e m a i n E u r o p e " O n g o i n g d e b t c o n c e r n s r e t u r n e d t o h e a d l i n e s b y t h e C y p r i o t c r i s i s U S F i s c a l T i g h t e n i n g " F i s c a l C l i f f a n d S e q u e s t e r f a i l e d t o d e r a i l m a r k e t s , b u t f i s c a l c h a l l e n g e s r e m a i n C h i n a " G r o w t h i s s l o w i n g & h o w m u c h ? I n f l a t i o n " P o t e n t i a l c r e a t i o n o f l o n g - t e r m i n f l a t i o n p r e s s u r e s t h r o u g h c e n t r a l b a n k b o n d p u r c h a s e s " T i m e t o r e b a l a n c e t o f u n d a m e n t a l l y a t t r a c t i v e a s s e t c l a s s e s a n d e x e r c i s e p a t i e n c e i n p r e p a r i n g t o s e i z e n e w o p p o r t u n i t i e s M a i n t a i n e q u i t y a l l o c a t i o n s t o t a r g e t s w h i l e t a k i n g p r o f i t s i n U S s t o c k s " I n t e r n a t i o n a l a n d E m e r g i n g M a r k e t r e t u r n s h a v e b e e n l e s s p o s i t i v e d e s p i t e a h i g h e r p r o j e c t e d r e t u r n p r e m i u m T h o u g h s t i m u l a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t i t i s p r u d e n t t o p r e p a r e f o r o t h e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s " W h e n r e t u r n s n o r m a l i z e , d o w n s i d e v o l a t i l i t y i s l i k e l y t o r e s u r f a c e , g e n e r a t i n g a t t r a c t i v e b u y i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r i n v e s t o r s w i t h t h e a b i l i t y t o a c t p r o m p t l y O u t l o o k 5
Market Environment6
Investment Market Update: As of March 31, 2013PERFORMANCE THROUGH 3/31/2013SectorIndex20082009201020112012JANFEBMAR2013Small Cap Growth R2000 Growth-38.5%34.5% 29.1%-2.9%14.6% 6.6% 1.1% 5.1% 13.2%SMID Cap R2500-36.8%34.4% 26.7%-2.5%17.9% 6.8% 1.1% 4.4% 12.8%Small Cap Russell 2000-33.8%27.2% 26.9%-4.2%16.4% 6.3% 1.1% 4.6% 12.4%Large Cap Value R1000 Value-36.9%19.7% 15.5% 0.4% 17.5% 6.5% 1.4% 4.0% 12.3%Small Cap Value R2000 Value-28.9%20.6% 24.5%-5.5%18.1% 6.0% 1.1% 4.2% 11.6%Large Cap Russell 1000-37.6%28.4% 16.1% 1.5% 16.4% 5.4% 1.3% 3.9% 11.0%Large Cap S&P 500-37.0%26.5% 15.1% 2.1% 16.0% 5.2% 1.4% 3.8% 10.6%Large Cap Growth R1000 Growth-38.4%37.2% 16.7% 2.6% 15.3% 4.3% 1.2% 3.8% 9.5%REITS Wilshire REIT-39.2%28.6% 28.6% 9.2% 17.6% 3.5% 0.9% 2.8% 7.4%Diversified Diversified*-24.5%24.1% 13.5% 1.3% 12.7% 3.1% 0.6% 2.0% 5.9%Int. Equity EAFE (net)-43.4%31.8% 7.8%-12.1%17.3% 5.3%-0.9%0.8% 5.1%High Yield BC HY-26.2%58.2% 15.1% 5.0% 15.8% 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 2.9%Muni Bonds BC Muni (unadj)-2.5%12.9% 2.4% 10.7% 6.8% 0.4% 0.3%-0.4%0.3%Gov/Credit BC 1-5 Yr Gov/Cred 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.1% 2.2%-0.1%0.3% 0.1% 0.3%Int. Gov/Credit BC Intermediate GC 5.1% 5.2% 5.9% 5.8% 3.9%-0.4%0.5% 0.1% 0.3%Gov/Credit BC 1-3 Yr Gov/Cred 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%Int. Core FI BC Intermediate Agg 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.8% 4.2%-0.7%0.4% 0.1% 0.2%Core FI BC Aggregate 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.8% 4.2%-0.7%0.5% 0.1%-0.1%EMD Loc. GBI-EM Glob. Div.-5.2%22.0% 15.7%-1.8%16.8% 0.7%-0.3% -0.5% -0.1%Commodities DJ UBS Commodity-35.7%18.9% 16.8%-13.3% -1.1%2.4%-4.1%0.7%-1.1%Emerging FI BC Emerging (USD)-14.8%34.2% 12.8% 7.0% 18.0%-0.7% -0.2% -0.6% -1.5%Emerging EM (net)-53.3%78.5% 18.9%-18.4%18.2% 1.4%-1.3% -1.7% -1.6%Long Credit BC Long Credit-3.9%16.8% 10.7% 17.1% 12.7%-2.2%0.9%-0.5% -1.8%Long Gov/Credit BC Long Gov/Credit 8.4% 1.9% 10.2% 22.5% 8.8%-2.7%1.0%-0.3% -2.0%Global FI Citigroup WGBI 10.9% 2.6% 5.2% 6.4% 1.7%-1.3% -1.2% -0.3% -2.8%Treasury STRIPS BC 20+ STRIPS59.5%-36.0%10.9% 58.5% 3.0%-5.9%1.5%-0.9% -5.4%* 35% LC, 10% SC, 12% Intl, 3% Emerging, 25% FI, 5% HY, 5% Global FI, 5% REITSSources: Barclays, Bloomberg, Wilshire7
8 % 6 % 4 % 2 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 1 0 % Q 1 9 4 Q 4 9 4 Q 3 9 5 Q 2 9 6 Q 1 9 7 Q 4 9 7 Q 3 9 8 Q 2 9 9 Q 1 0 0 Q 4 0 0 Q 3 0 1 Q 2 0 2 Q 1 0 3 Q 4 0 3 Q 3 0 4 Q 2 0 5 Q 1 0 6 Q 4 0 6 Q 3 0 7 Q 2 0 8 Q 1 0 9 Q 4 0 9 Q 3 1 0 Q 2 1 1 Q 1 1 2 Q 4 1 2 R e a l � G r o s s � D o m e s t i c � P r o d u c t � G r o w t h U S E c o n o m i c E n v i r o n m e n t S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 3 / 3 1 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 3 / 3 1 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 3 / 3 1 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 3 / 3 1 C o n s u m e r c o n f i d e n c e r e c e d e d t o J a n u a r y l e v e l s a f t e r e x p e r i e n c i n g a F e b r u a r y b o o s t ; t h e C a s e - S h i l l e r h o m e p r i c e i n d e x ( A s o f 1 2 / 3 1 ) f e l l m a r g i n a l l y t h r o u g h D e c e m b e r R o l l i n g 1 2 m o n t h C P I f e l l t o 1 . 5 % a t e n d o f M a r c h ; c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n i n c r e a s e d t o 7 8 . 5 % i n t h e m o n t h F o u r t h q u a r t e r G D P g r o w t h w a s r e v i s e d u p w a r d s t o 0 . 4 % U n e m p l o y m e n t d e c r e a s e d t o 7 . 6 % i n M a r c h , i t s l o w e s t l e v e l s i n c e 2 0 0 8 ; U - 6 d e c r e a s e d t o 1 3 . 8 % 0 . 4 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 1 0 % 1 2 % 1 4 % 1 6 % 1 8 % U n e m p l o y m e n t � R a t e � v s . � U 6 U n e m p l o y m e n t � R a t e U 6 6 0 % 6 5 % 7 0 % 7 5 % 8 0 % 8 5 % 9 0 % 9 5 % 1 0 0 % 6 % 3 % 0 % 3 % 6 % 9 % 1 2 % 1 5 % 1 8 % 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 % � o f � T o t a l � C a p a c i t y R o l l i n g � 1 2 � M o n t h � C P I C a p a c i t y � U t i l i z a t i o n � v s . � R o l l i n g � 1 2 � M o n t h � C P I 1 2 M o � C P I C a p a c i t y � U t i l i z a t i o n 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 1 2 0 1 5 0 1 8 0 2 1 0 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 H o m e � P r i c e � I n d e x � a n d � C o n s u m e r � C o n f i d e n c e S &