HomeMy Public PortalAbout2013 2nd Quarter ReportInvestment Performance AnalysisAs of June 30, 2013August 6, 2013Kristin Finney-Cooke, CAIA, Senior ConsultantKristen Jackson, CFA, Sr. AnalystThe Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Employees’ Pension Plan
Table of ContentsInvestment Outlook1Market Environment2Executive Summary3Asset Allocation4Performance Detail5Manager Summary6Manager Pages 7 TabThe Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District Employees’ Pension PlanJune 30, 20131
Investment Outlook2
" A f t e r s t r o n g p e r f o r m a n c e a c r o s s m o s t a s s e t c l a s s e s i n t h e 1 s t q u a r t e r , m a r k e t s w e r e r o i l e d b y & I n d i c a t i o n s t h e F e d w o u l d t a p e r i t s s t i m u l a t i v e p o l i c y e a r l i e r t h a n e x p e c t e d C o n c e r n t h a t g r o w t h w a s s l o w i n g i n C h i n a a n d a c r o s s t h e e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s " T h e h i g h e r v o l a t i l i t y e n v i r o n m e n t h a s b e e n c h a l l e n g i n g T r e a s u r y y i e l d s s p i k e d o n e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t a p e r i n g , a n d c o n t i n u e d t o r i s e t h r o u g h J u n e V i r t u a l l y a l l m a r k e t s h a v e b e e n d o w n , l e a v i n g i n v e s t o r s n o p l a c e t o h i d e T r a d i t i o n a l h e d g i n g a s s e t s , s u c h a s T r e a s u r i e s , h a v e n o t w o r k e d E m e r g i n g m a r k e t s e q u i t y a n d d e b t h a v e e s p e c i a l l y s t r u g g l e d " H o w e v e r & D e v e l o p e d m a r k e t s a r e l a r g e l y p o s i t i v e o n t h e y e a r R a t e s a r e s t i l l l o w a n d s t i m u l a t i v e p o l i c y i s s t i l l i n p l a c e S i g n s o f U S r e c o v e r y a n d m o d e s t g r o w t h , e s p e c i a l l y i n h o u s i n g , a r e p r e s e n t E v e n w i t h t h e s l o w d o w n i n e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s , o v e r a l l g r o w t h i s s t i l l r e l a t i v e l y h i g h S e c o n d Q u a r t e r M a r k e t R e v i e w 3
Following a Positive 1stQuarter, May and June Have Shifted the Investment Landscape…Source: Bloomberg as of 6/304
& A n d U s h e r e d i n a H i g h e r V o l a t i l i t y E n v i r o n m e n t S o u r c e : M o r n i n g s t a r a s o f 6 / 3 0 5
Meanwhile… Treasury Rates Have Risen Rapidly, but Remain Low OverallSource: Bloomberg as of 6/30December 2010 December 2012So far in 2013… 6
Anticipation of Less Stimulative Monetary Policy Caused A Dramatic Increase In Real Yields7
Japan Enters the Easing Game as the ECB TightensSource: Bloomberg as of 7/12; All calculations made in Local Currency *GDP figure reflects World Bank Euro Area GDP8
" M a y a n d J u n e w e r e c h a l l e n g i n g m o n t h s f o r i n v e s t o r s T h e p r o s p e c t o f a n e a r l i e r t h a n e x p e c t t a p e r i n g o f s t i m u l a t i o n b y t h e F e d c o m b i n e d w i t h s l o w i n g g r o w t h i n e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s t o c r e a t e v o l a t i l i t y N e a r l y a l l s e c t o r s o f t h e m a r k e t e x p e r i e n c e d d o w n t u r n s , w i t h R i s k P a r i t y s t r a t e g i e s a n d e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s e s p e c i a l l y s t r u g g l i n g " T r e a s u r y y i e l d s s p i k e d , w i t h t h e 1 0 y e a r t r e a s u r y r a t e u p o v e r 8 0 b a s i s p o i n t s s o f a r i n 2 0 1 3 " T h e B o J c o n t i n u e d i t s h e a v i l y s t i m u l a t i v e p o l i c y b u t s a w J a p a n e s e e q u i t y m a r k e t s d i v e a t t h e e n d o f t h e q u a r t e r ; m e a n w h i l e t h e E C B h a s r e e l e d i n i t s p o l i c y o p p o s i t e t h a t o f t h e B o J a n d F e d " G o l d c o n t i n u e d i t s y e a r - t o - d a t e p l u m m e t l e a d i n g m o s t c o m m o d i t y p r i c e s d o w n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h s l o w i n g g r o w t h f o r e c a s t s " M a n y m a c r o e c o n o m i c a n d g e o p o l i t i c a l c h a l l e n g e s r e m a i n T a p e r i n g o f s t i m u l a t i v e m o n e t a r y p o l i c y i n t h e U S a n d / o r a b r o a d F u r t h e r s l o w d o w n i n C h i n a a n d b r o a d e r e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s P o t e n t i a l f o r r e n e w e d p e r i p h e r a l E u r o p e a n d e b t c r i s i s U S d e b t c e i l i n g d e b a t e l o o m i n g C o n f l i c t i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t ( o r e l s e w h e r e ) M a r k e t S u m m a r y 9
" D e s p i t e t h e t u r b u l e n t q u a r t e r m a n y p o s i t i v e s r e m a i n : U S e q u i t i e s h a v e p o s t e d s t r o n g g a i n s t h r o u g h t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 2 0 1 3 I n t e r e s t r a t e s r e m a i n l o w r e l a t i v e t o h i s t o r i c l e v e l s a n d s t i m u l a t i o n r e m a i n s i n p l a c e f o r n o w T h e U S e c o n o m y i s r e c o v e r i n g a n d t h e f i s c a l d e f i c i t h a s b e e n d e c l i n i n g G r o w t h i n e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s , w h i l e s l o w i n g , r e m a i n s h i g h e r t h a n d e v e l o p e d m a r k e t s " R i s k p a r i t y c o n t i n u e s t o r e p r e s e n t a s t r o n g f o u n d a t i o n f o r a s s e t a l l o c a t i o n " T h e l o n g - t e r m i n v e s t m e n t t h e s i s f o r e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s r e m a i n s i n t a c t a n d v a l u a t i o n s r e m a i n a t t r a c t i v e " I n f l a t i o n p r o s p e c t s r e m a i n m u t e d i n t h e n e a r - t e r m , h o w e v e r , t h e r i s k o f r i s i n g i n f l a t i o n r e s u l t i n g f r o m m o n e t a r y e x p a n s i o n p e r s i s t s " I l l i q u i d s t r a t e g i e s , p a r t i c u l a r d i r e c t l e n d i n g f u n d s , o f f e r a c o m p e l l i n g r i s k - r e t u r n p r o f i l e " W e e x p e c t m a r k e t v o l a t i l i t y t o r e m a i n e l e v a t e d i n c o m i n g m o n t h s ; i n v e s t o r s c a n m o v e a t a m e a s u r e d p a c e t o a l l o c a t e t o m o r e a t t r a c t i v e a s s e t c a t e g o r i e s M a r k e t O u t l o o k S t a y i n g t h e C o u r s e 1 0
Market Environment11
Investment Market Update: As of June 30, 2013June 30, 201312
Investment Market Update: As of June 30, 2013June 30, 2013PERFORMANCE THROUGH 6/30/2013SectorIndex20082009201020112012Q1APRMAYJUNQ22013Small Cap Growth Russell 2000 Growth-38.5%34.5% 29.1%-2.9%14.6% 13.2%-0.7%5.1%-0.6%3.7% 17.4%Large Cap Value Russell 1000 Value-36.8%19.7% 15.5% 0.4% 17.5% 12.3% 1.5% 2.6%-0.9%3.2% 15.9%Small Cap Russell 2000 -33.8%27.2% 26.9%-4.2%16.3% 12.4%-0.4%4.0%-0.5%3.1% 15.9%SMID Cap Russell 2500-36.8%34.4% 26.7%-2.5%17.9% 12.8% 0.3% 3.1%-1.1%2.3% 15.4%Small Cap Value Russell 2000 Value-28.9%20.6% 24.5%-5.5%18.1% 11.6%-0.1%3.0%-0.4%2.5% 14.4%Large Cap Russell 1000-37.6%28.4% 16.1% 1.5% 16.4% 11.0% 1.8% 2.2%-1.4%2.7% 13.9%Large Cap S&P 500-37.0%26.5% 15.1% 2.1% 16.0% 10.6% 1.9% 2.3%-1.3%2.9% 13.8%Large Cape Growth Russell 1000 Growth-38.4%37.2% 16.7% 2.6% 15.3% 9.5% 2.1% 1.9%-1.9%2.1% 11.8%Diversified Diversified*-24.5%24.1% 13.5% 1.3% 12.7% 5.9% 2.0%-0.1% -1.8%0.1% 6.1%REITS Wilshire US REIT -39.2%28.6% 28.6% 9.2% 17.6% 7.4% 6.6%-5.9% -1.7% -1.4%5.9%Int'l Developed MSCI EAFE-43.4%31.8% 7.8%-12.1%17.3% 5.1% 5.2%-2.4% -3.6% -1.0%4.1%High Yield Barclays US High Yield-26.2%58.2% 15.1% 5.0% 15.8% 2.9% 1.8%-0.6% -2.6% -1.4%1.4%Govt/Credit Barclays US Govt/Credit 1-3 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%-0.1% -0.1% -0.1%0.1%Govt/Credit Barclays Govt/Credit 1-5 Yr 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3%-0.5% -0.6% -0.7% -0.5%Interm Govt/Credit Barclays US Govt/Credit Inte 5.1% 5.2% 5.9% 5.8% 3.9% 0.3% 0.6%-1.1% -1.2% -1.7% -1.4%Interm Core Bonds Barclays US Agg Interm 4.9% 6.5% 6.1% 6.0% 3.6% 0.2% 0.6%-1.3% -1.1% -1.8% -1.6%Core Bonds Barclays US Agg Bond 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.8% 4.2%-0.1%1.0%-1.8% -1.5% -2.3% -2.4%Muni Bonds Barclays Municipal-2.5%12.9% 2.4% 10.7% 6.8% 0.3% 1.1%-1.2% -2.8% -3.0% -2.7%Global Bonds Citi WGBI 10.9% 2.6% 5.2% 6.4% 1.6%-2.8%1.1%-3.4% -0.6% -3.0% -5.7%EMD External Barclays EM USD-14.7%34.2% 12.8% 7.0% 17.9%-1.5%2.0%-2.7%-4.5% -5.1% -6.5%EMD LocalJPM GBI EM Glob Div-5.2%22.0% 15.7%-1.8%16.8%-0.1%3.4%-6.3% -4.1% -7.0% -7.2%Long Govt/Credit Barclays US Govt/Credit Long8.4% 1.9% 10.2% 22.5% 8.8%-2.0%3.9%-5.4% -4.5% -6.1% -8.0%Long Credit Barclays US Long Credit -3.9% 16.8% 10.7% 17.1% 12.7%-1.8%4.0%-4.9% -5.3% -6.3% -8.0%Emerging Equities MSCI EM-53.3%78.5% 18.9%-18.4%18.2%-1.6%0.8%-2.6% -6.4% -8.1% -9.6%Commodities DJ UBS Commodity-35.6%18.9% 16.8%-13.3% -1.1% -1.1% -2.8% -2.2% -4.7% -9.5% -10.5%Treasury STRIPS Barclays US Strips 20+ Yr 59.5%-36.0%10.9% 58.5% 3.0%-5.4%7.2%-10.0% -4.2% -7.6% -12.6%* 35% LC, 10% SC, 12% Intl Equity, 3% Emerging Equity, 25% Core Bonds, 5% HY, 5% Global Bonds, 5% REITSSources: Barclays, Bloomberg, Wilshire13
8 % 6 % 4 % 2 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 1 0 % R e a l � G r o s s � D o m e s t i c � P r o d u c t � G r o w t h U S E c o n o m i c E n v i r o n m e n t J u n e 3 0 , 2 0 1 3 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 6 / 3 0 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 5 / 3 1 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 6 / 3 0 S o u r c e : B l o o m b e r g a s o f 5 / 3 1 C o n s u m e r c o n f i d e n c e j u m p e d t o 8 1 . 4 i n J u n e , i t s h i g h e s t l e v e l s i n c e J a n u a r y 2 0 0 8 ; t h e C a s e - S h i l l e r h o m e p r i c e i n d e x ( a s o f 3 / 3 1 ) r o s e s l i g h t l y t h r o u g h M a r c h R o l l i n g 1 2 m o n t h C P I i n c r e a s e d t o 1 . 4 % a t M a y e n d ; c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n d e c r e a s e d t o 7 7 . 6 % i n t h e m o n t h F i r s t q u a r t e r G D P g r o w t h w a s r e v i s e d t o 1 . 8 % , d o w n f r o m a n i n i t i a l e s t i m a t i o n o f 2 . 5 % U n e m p l o y m e n t i n c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y t o 7 . 6 % i n M a y ; U - 6 d e c r e a s e d t o 1 3 . 8 % 1 . 8 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 1 0 % 1 2 % 1 4 % 1 6 % 1 8 % U n e m p l o y m e n t � R a t e � v s . � U 6 U n e m p l o y m e n t � R a t e U 6 6 0 % 6 5 % 7 0 % 7 5 % 8 0 % 8 5 % 9 0 % 9 5 % 1 0 0 % 6 % 3 % 0 % 3 % 6 % 9 % 1 2 % 1 5 % 1 8 % 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 % � o f � T o t a l � C a p a c i t y R o l l i n g � 1 2 � M o n t h � C P I C a p a c i t y � U t i l i z a t i o n � v s . � R o l l i n g � 1 2 � M o n t h � C P I 1 2 M o � C P I C a p a c i t y � U t i l i z a t i o n 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 1 2 0 1 5 0 1 8 0 2 1 0 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 H o m e � P r i c e � I n d e x � a n d � C o n s u m e r � C o n f i d e n c e S &