HomeMy Public PortalAbout14) 10B General Plan Land Use DiagramCity Council
July 21, 2015
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6. On February 26, 2015, staff and PlaceWorks met with the Youth Committee and
engaged its members in the same exercise as mentioned above.
7. From March 2 to July 6, 2015, the GPAC met to review the community feedback and
develop a consensus on the Draft General Plan Land Use Diagram and the
associated development and population projections.
8. On July 6, 2015, the GPAC reviewed and approved the Draft General Plan Land
Use Diagram and the development and population projections.
9. On July 14, 2015, the Planning Commission reviewed the Draft Land Use Diagram
and the development and population projections. Staff will provide the City Council
an update on the Commission's comments.
ANALYSIS:
A General Plan Land Use Diagram is a generalized version of a zoning map. It sets
general parameters on the types of uses allowed within an area and a range or maximum
intensity for growth. A Zoning Map provides the same information, however, in a more
detailed manner. For example the existing General Plan provides one commercial
category, while the Zoning Map provides eight commercial zones. The policies of the
General Plan will include a description of each designation, or zone, on the Land Use
Diagram including a general list of allowed uses, a description of the building's character,
and a range or maximum density for new development.
While the General Plan Land Use Diagram demonstrates where and what type of growth
can occur, this is paired with a set of development and population projections. These
projections demonstrate the change between the existing built conditions and a
reasonable projection of growth expected from the Draft General Plan Land Use Diagram.
The projections are useful in understanding the amount of growth that may result from
the designations shown on the Land Use Diagram. They will be used in the
Environmental Impact Report (EIR) to determine the effect the projected growth will have
on such environmental conditions as traffic, air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, water
resources, infrastructure, parks, etc.
The GPAC looked at 11 areas recommended for change throughout the City and
addressed issues such as:
• Industrial uses along Gidley Street and Encinita Avenue;
• Multi-family neighborhoods with pockets of single-family houses;
• Future use of the Los Angeles County Flood Control Channel;
• Existing single-family neighborhoods with some multi-family housing;
• The proper location for a new Mixed Use (commercial and residential) designation;
City Council
July 21, 2015
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The City's General Plan consultant, PlaceWorks, has prepared a land use model to
determine the expected growth resulting from the GPAC's Draft General Plan Land Use
Diagram (see Attachment "C"). This land use model includes four sets of estimates: the
Existing Land Uses, the Existing General Plan, theoretical maximum buildout of the
Proposed General Plan, and a more reasonable forecast of the Proposed General Plan.
The figures for the theoretical maximum buildout were arrived at by estimating the
complete buildout of every parcel within the City at its maximum density. That type of
scenario is highly unlikely. To arrive at a more reasonable projection, PlaceWorks has
reviewed economic projections, regional planning models, and historical growth patterns
to create reasonable growth projections. Attachment "C" includes development and
population projections for future number of dwelling units, population, commercial building
square feet, industrial building square feet, and number of employees. Each set of
projections includes two tables, one for the City and its Sphere of Influence and one for
the City without the Sphere of Influence.
The development and population projections for the City, without its Sphere of Influence,
demonstrate a moderate increase in dwelling units and non-residential square footage.
For the 25 year period from 1990 to 2015 the City grew by approximately 4,919 residents,
which equates to an average annual growth rate of .63 percent. Based on the Draft Land
Use Diagram, the land use model projects a population increase of approximately 10,075
over a 20 year period, which equates to an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent.
While the annual average percentage increase is nearly 2.5 times that of the growth rate
from 1990 to 2015, staff believes the projection to be credible for the following reasons:
• The period of 1990 to 2015 included two significant recessions that strongly
impacted residential development. The period of 2015 to 2035 is likely to include
another recession, but it is unlikely that the recession will be as severe.
• Population would be expected to increase faster with the Draft Land Use Diagram
due to an expansion of areas where mixed use development will be permitted.
• In general, traffic studies typically project a regional annual growth rate of 1 percent.
The proposed growth rate is reasonably close to this industry standard.
• Lastly, it is generally advisable to overestimate projections. After reviewing impacts
the City Council can reduce densities on the General Plan Land Use Diagram to
reduce expected growth.
Other notable expected changes, as demonstrated in Table 2 below, is an expected
increase between the Existing General Plan and the Proposed General Plan in
commercial square footage and employees but a decrease in industrial square footage.
ATTACHMENT A
Current General Plan Land Use Diagram
ATTACHMENT B
Draft General Plan Land Use Diagram
ATTACHMENT C
General Plan Development and Population Projections
ATTACHMENT A
Current General Plan Land Use Diagram
ATTACHMENT 8
Draft General Plan Land Use Diagram
ATTACHMENT C
General Plan Projections