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Home My Public Portal About4.26_CoastalRisksBrewster Coastal Risks Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Brewster Public Visioning  Brewster’s Public Shoreline  Shoreline Vulnerabilities  Coastal change  Storms  Sea Level Rise  Preliminary Impacts to the Public Coastline Brewster’s Public Shoreline 10 Public Access Areas Coastal Change A Historic Perspective at the Landings Paine’s Creek 2014 Color Aerial and MA CZM Historic Shorelines Breakwater and Little Breakwater Landings Historic Shorelines, Erosion Rates and Variability Short Term: 3.05 ft/year (accretion) Long Term: -0.26 ft/year (erosion) Short Term: -1.41 ft/year (erosion) Long Term: -0.56 ft/year (erosion) 1951 1994 2009 1934 Challenging Shoreline Predic;ons  Large variability  Spatially  Temporally  Limited data (shorelines)  Built environment has changed Tides in Brewster – Some context  Tidal range (consecutive Low/High Tides):  Average: 10.3 feet  Ranging from 6.8 to 15.2 feet  Relative to the shoreline (Mean High Water or MHW)  Most (58%) high tides are above MHW  ~ 1 in 17 high tides (5.8%) are ≥2 ft above MHW: that’s 41 high tides  3 greatest high tides are 2.8 feet above MHW Source: 2016 NOAA tidal predictions. Sesuit Harbor, East Dennis, MA Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing What is a storm surge? An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center Why Storm Surges MaGer  Can happen today, tomorrow, next year  They are cumulative (additive), over:  High tides  SLR  Coastal change processes Measured Historic Storm Surges NOAA Boston Gauge For visualizations purposes, assume 4 ft surge Surge (feet) Storm Date Storm Name 4.21' February 9, 2013 Winter Storm Nemo 4.57' October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.88' October 30, 1991 "Perfect Storm" Halloween Nor'easter 4.34' February 6, 1978 Blizzard of 1978 3.69' February 14, 1940 Valentine's Day Nor'easter SLR Scenarios – Boston Gauge Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Change Curve Calculator, Version 2015.46  1 ft @2038 (in ~20 years)  2 ft @2054 (in ~40 years)  4 ft @2078 (in ~60 years) Coastal Flooding Scenarios  SLR: 2 ft and 4 ft above MHW  Storm surge: 4 ft (a “Nor-‐Easter”)  To put things into perspective  2 ft above MHW already occurs 40 times a year  4 ft SLR is a daily equivalent to a Nor-‐Easter surge Coastal Flooding Visualiza;ons  Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island  Linnell and Crosby Landings  Little Breakwater and Breakwater  Ellis Landing Note: Saint’s Landing and Point of Rocks Landings have limited impacts from the proposed scenarios, and are not represented here. Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island Salt & Fresh Water Wetlands, and Town Owned Land Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island Mean High Water Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island MHW + 2 feet Sea Level Rise Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island MHW + 4 feet Sea Level Rise (or MHW + 4 foot Storm Surge – possible today) Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island MHW + 4 ft SLR + 4 ft Storm Surge Paine’s Creek, Mant’s Landing, and Wing Island Flooding at Various SLR and Surge Levels Linnell and Crosby Landings Salt & Fresh Water Wetlands, and Town/State Owned Land Linnell and Crosby Landings Mean High Water Linnell and Crosby Landings MHW + 2 feet Sea Level Rise Linnell and Crosby Landings MHW + 4 feet Sea Level Rise (or MHW + 4 foot Storm Surge - possible today) Linnell and Crosby Landings MHW + 4 ft SLR + 4 ft Storm Surge Linnell and Crosby Landings Flooding at Various SLR and Surge Levels Little Breakwater and Breakwater Landings Salt & Fresh Water Wetlands, and Town Owned Land Little Breakwater and Breakwater Landings Mean High Water Little Breakwater and Breakwater Landings MHW + 2 feet Sea Level Rise Little Breakwater and Breakwater Landings MHW + 4 feet Sea Level Rise (or MHW + 4 foot Storm Surge - possible today) Little Breakwater and Breakwater Landings MHW + 4 ft SLR + 4 ft Storm Surge Little Breakwater and Breakwater Landings Flooding at Various SLR and Surge Levels Ellis Landing Salt & Fresh Water Wetlands, and Town Owned Land Ellis Landing Mean High Water Ellis Landing MHW + 2 feet Sea Level Rise Ellis Landing MHW + 4 feet Sea Level Rise (or MHW + 4 foot Storm Surge - possible today) Ellis Landing MHW + 4 ft SLR + 4 ft Storm Surge Ellis Landing Flooding at Various SLR and Surge Levels Paine’s Creek – Access Impacts Crosby’s Landing– Access Impacts Preliminary Impacts to Parking and Access Coastal Landing Parking Spaces Scenarios with Impacts Parking Access to Parking Paines Creek 19 4 ft 8 ft Mants 44 4 ft 4 ft Saints 38 -‐ -‐ Little Breakwater 6 -‐ 4 ft Breakwater 62 8 ft 8 ft Point of Rocks 3+8 -‐ -‐ Ellis 19 8 ft -‐ Linnell 25 8 ft -‐ Crosby 60 4 ft 4 ft Note: 4 ft corresponds to either a 4ft storm surge, or 4 ft of SLR 8 ft correspond to 4 ft of SLR + 4 ft of storm surge Questions? Getting Your Input: Small Group Discussions and Conference Call If you are joining the conference call, please do the following: • DIAL: 1-218-936-8633 • Enter the participant access code: 497419# • What do you value most about Brewster’s coastline and beaches? • What are you most concerned about or worried about happening in the town’s beach areas or landings? • What do you want the Coastal Adaptation Strategy to preserve, protect, or enhance? Discussion Questions for 7:15 to 7:45 Agenda Item We will return to full group discussion and in-room image at about 7:45 PM