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HomeMy Public PortalAboutCC_MappingSea Level Rise and Storm Surge Mapping  Components   — Shoreline  Change  Over  Time   — Sea  Level  Rise   — Storm  Surge   Sea  Level  Rise   Relevant  Literature   — U.S.  Inter-­‐agency  report:     — NOAA   — SERDP  –  itself  an  inter-­‐ agency  organization  with   DOD,  EPA,  and  DOE   — USGS   — US  Army  Corps   Why  This  Report?   — Based  in  science   — Its  global  SLR  scenarios  recognized  for  SLR   vulnerability  assessments  by:     — The  MA  Climate  Change  Adaptation  Report   — MA  CZM   — MA  DOT   — Only  coordinated  interagency  effort  in  the  US   What  are  its  SLR  Scenarios?   Why  so  much  variability?   Scenario    SLR  by   2100  (2)    Summary     Highest    6.6  Derived  from  ocean  warming  and  maximum  ice   sheet  loss     Intermediate/High    3.9  Based  on  limited  ice  sheet  loss  plus  ocean   warming     Intermediate/Low    1.6  Based  primarily  on  SLR  from  ocean  warming     Lowest    0.7  Linear  extrapolaLon  of  historical  SLR  rate   derived  from  Lde  gauge  records     What  Historical  SLR?   Historic  Sea  Level  Gauge  Data  from  Boston  Harbor   2  More  Gauges:     — Woods  Hole  (2.83  mm  +/-­‐  0.18  mm/yr)     — Nantucket  (3.58  mm  +/-­‐  0.39  mm/yr)     Making  Global  SLR  Local   — U.S.  National  Climate  Assessment  (2012)   estimates  future  global  SLR   — Tidal  gauge  data  provide  historical  local   SLR   — U.S.  Army  Corps  developed  a  Sea  Level   Change  Calculator  to  incorporate:     — Future  global  SLR  estimates  with   — Local  tidal  gauge  data   SLR  Scenarios  –  Boston  Gauge   Source:  U.S.  Army  Corps  of  Engineers  (USACE)  Sea  Level  Change  Curve  Calculator,  Version  2015.46   What  is  a  storm  surge?   An  abnormal  rise  of  water  generated  by  a  storm,   over  and  above  the  predicted  astronomical   tides.   Source:  NOAA  National  Hurricane  Center   Why  Storm  Surges  MaRer   — Can  happen  today,  tomorrow,  next  year   — Depending  on  the  storm,  surges  can  reach   10-­‐15  feet   — They  are  cumulative  (additive),  over:     — High  tides   — SLR   — Coastal  change  processes   A  Storm  Surge  Model  -­‐   SLOSH   — The  National  Weather  Service’s  Sea,  Lake   and  Overland  Surges  from  Hurricanes   (SLOSH)  model     — Computerized  numerical  model     — Estimates  storm  surge  heights  resulting  from   historical,  hypothetical,  or  predicted  hurricanes   — Takes  into  account  atmospheric  pressure,  size,   forward  speed,  and  track  data   Cat  2  SimulaLon,  Mean  High  Tide   SLOSH  Storm  Surge  Heights   Hurricane Category/ Tide Mean High (2 ft tide) High (5 ft tide) 1 0-2.1 ft 4.1-4.9 ft 7.1-7.8 ft 2 4.7-6.3 ft 6.6-8.2 ft 9.7-11 ft 3 8.8-10 ft 10.9-11.7 ft 14.1-14.6 ft 4 11.8-13.4 ft 13.9-15.1 ft 17.1-17.7 ft VisualizaLons   — Town-­‐Wide  (GIS  and  Aerial-­‐based)   — Expected/extrapolated  coastal  change   — SLR   — Storm  surges   — Landing  visualizations  (Photo-­‐based)   — SLR  and  storm  surges   Crosby  Landing   Saint’s  Landing   Paine’s  Creek,  Mant’s  Landing   AdapLve  Planning   ConsideraLons   — Impacts  Will  Vary  Along  the  Coast  –   So  Adaptive  Plans  Will  Vary     — Daily  Impacts  of  SLR  Versus  Less   Frequent,  But  Larger  Storm  Surge   Impacts  –  Daily  Nuisance  Versus   Extreme  Event   The  AdapLve  Planning  Spectrum   — Do  Nothing   — Vegetation  Management   — Regrade/Clean  up  After  Storms   — Erosion  Control  Structures   — Beach  Nourishment   — Managed  Retreat   Planning  ConsideraLons   — Compliance  with  the  Wetlands   Protection  Act     — Parking   — Locations   — Extent  of  Access   QuesLons?