Loading...
07 - FINAL Pueblo West Population Forecast Report ANDERSON ANALYTICS CURRENT POPULATION ESTIMATE AND 10-YEAR POPULATION PROJECTION FOR PUEBLO WEST METROPOLITAN DISTRICT: 2019 TO 2029 Prepared for: Pueblo West Metropolitan District, Colorado April 17, 2019 1516 N. Nevada Ave. Colorado Springs Colorado 80907 andersonanalyticsCO.com (719) 332-2125 GENERAL LIMITING CONDITIONS This report contains information believed to be reliable. No responsibility, however, is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by any source. Market and economic conditions can change very rapidly. The data and conclusions con- tained in this report are valid for a short period of time following their publication. Caution should be used in relying on any information contained herein to make important decisions without verifying current market and economic conditions. The forecasts contained in this report represent a reasonable estimate of likely future activity. They are, however, subject to a variety of uncertainties. Consequently, anyone using them should realize their limitations and perform their own independent analysis of the assumptions contained herein. None of the material contained in this report may be used in any type of prospectus for any type of securities offering without prior written authorization. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 2 Current Population Estimate .......................................................................................................... 13 Review of Existing Estimates .................................................................................................................... 13 Current Population Estimate .................................................................................................................... 16 Population Projection and Methodology ........................................................................................ 19 10-Year Population Projection .................................................................................................................. 19 Methodology for Calculating the Population Projection ........................................................................... 20 Comparison with Past Population Growth Trends .................................................................................... 23 Water as a Limiting Factor on Population Growth .................................................................................... 25 Population Change Metrics and Indicators ..................................................................................... 29 Residential Building Permits ..................................................................................................................... 29 Births, Deaths, and Net Migration ............................................................................................................ 34 Economic and Demographic Factors ............................................................................................... 40 Jobs, Employment, and Wage Growth ...................................................................................................... 40 Foreclosures ............................................................................................................................................. 44 Home Values and Rents ........................................................................................................................... 46 Commuters .............................................................................................................................................. 52 Children and School Districts .................................................................................................................... 54 Retirees and Seniors ................................................................................................................................. 56 Military and Veterans ............................................................................................................................... 59 Risks and Factors for Future Consideration ..................................................................................... 63 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................ 68 Figure 1: Total Building Permits Issued ..................................................................................................... 68 Figure 2: Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits ....................................................... 70 Figure 3: Change in Total Average Annual Employment ............................................................................ 78 Figure 4: Annual Average Pay ................................................................................................................... 86 Figure 5: Values of Owner-Occupied Housing Units .................................................................................. 94 Figure 6: Multifamily Apartment Vacancy Rates and Median Monthly Rent ............................................. 98 Figure 7: Households with One or More People Under 18 Years Old ....................................................... 100 Figure 8: Percent of Total Households with Retirement Income .............................................................. 101 Figure 9: Veterans by Era of Final Discharge ........................................................................................... 102 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 2 Executive Summary The two purposes of this report are to provide a current March 2019 population esti- mate for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District, and to provide annual population pro- jections from 2019 to 2029 based on its current estimated population. This report in- cludes descriptions of the estimation and projection methodologies, as well as discus- sions of the key economic and demographic factors likely to influence population changes in Pueblo West over the next 10 years. These key factors were identified fol- lowing interviews with several Pueblo West homebuilders, community leaders, and members of the Metropolitan District staff regarding their observations and hypothe- ses about population growth factors, trends, and outlook. Empirical datasets regarding the key factors and trends identified in these interviews were then analyzed using an historical and comparative approach. The goal of this analytical approach was to pro- vide a general framework of how and why population changes have occurred in Pueblo West, so that one might anticipate how this projection could change under different circumstances in the future. Current Population Estimate The current total population estimated in the Pueblo West Metropolitan District, as of March 1, 2019, is 31,704 persons. This total population includes an estimated 103 peo- ple living in group quarters, and 31,601 people living in households. The current total number of housing units in Pueblo West, as of March 1, 2019, is estimated to be 11,954, of which 11,575 units are estimated to be occupied and 379 vacant. This esti- mate reflects a total population change of just 2,226 persons since the 2010 Census, with over half of that growth estimated to have occurred since 2016. A housing unit method, with particular consideration for the quality of the annual vari- able inputs, was utilized to prepare this estimate. The 2010 Census population for Pueblo West Census Designated Place (CDP) was used as an anchor data point, and an- nual estimates until the present were made using building permit data from the Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD) along with vacancy, household size, and other data from the Census, the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey (ACS), Esri, and other sources. 10-Year Population Projection Pueblo West Metropolitan District’s population is projected to grow by 9,445 people Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 3 from March 1, 2019, to July 1, 2029, with a total of 3,573 new housing units projected to be added during this timeframe. The following two tables summarize the projected population and projected total number of housing units annually in Pueblo West. This 10-year population projection for Pueblo West was calculated using a share-of- County housing unit growth method. The following table demonstrates the steps per- formed in, and the results of, this projection method. Pueblo West’s share-of-County housing unit growth from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2018 was 45.16%, which serves as its projected share of new housing units in the 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Estimated Population (Mar 1)31,704 ---------- Projected Population (July 1)31,883 32,394 32,957 34,008 35,057 36,105 37,152 38,252 39,216 40,181 41,149 Annual Population Change -511 563 1,052 1,049 1,047 1,047 1,100 964 965 967 Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Population 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 New Housing Units -193 213 398 397 396 396 416 365 365 366 Total Housing Units 12,022 12,215 12,428 12,826 13,223 13,619 14,015 14,431 14,796 15,161 15,527 Occupied Housing Units 11,641 11,828 12,034 12,420 12,804 13,187 13,571 13,974 14,327 14,681 15,035 Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Housing Units (July 1) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Pueblo County Population Projection - State Demographer Population - (July 1)168,401 169,470 170,646 172,846 175,041 177,232 179,423 181,725 183,741 185,761 187,785 Annual Population Change 1,127 1,069 1,177 2,200 2,195 2,191 2,191 2,302 2,016 2,020 2,024 Pueblo West Share of County Growth P.W. - Share of New Housing Units 1/45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16% P.W. - Avg. New Household Size 2/2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 County - Avg. New Household Size 3/2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 P.W. - Vacancy Rate 2/3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17% P.W. - Share of New County Pop.47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80% Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Population Estimated Population (Mar 1)31,704 ---------- Projected Population (July 1)31,883 32,394 32,957 34,008 35,057 36,105 37,152 38,252 39,216 40,181 41,149 Annual Population Change -511 563 1,052 1,049 1,047 1,047 1,100 964 965 967 Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Housing Units New Housing Units -193 213 398 397 396 396 416 365 365 366 Total Housing Units 12,022 12,215 12,428 12,826 13,223 13,619 14,015 14,431 14,796 15,161 15,527 Occupied Housing Units 11,641 11,828 12,034 12,420 12,804 13,187 13,571 13,974 14,327 14,681 15,035 Sources: Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA), State Demography Office; Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD); Esri; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2005, 2006, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017; and ANDERSON ANALYTICS . Calculation of Pueblo West Population Projection 1/ Pueblo West's share of all new units permitted from 1999 to 2018, per PRBD data. 2/ Assumed to remain equal to July 2018 and March 2019 estimates. 3/ Average of ACS estimated vacancy rate from 2005 to 2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 4 next 10 years. Vacancy factors and the ratio of Pueblo West to Pueblo County average household size were utilized from current and historical Census, ACS, and Esri esti- mates. To then calculate Pueblo West’s projected annual population change, the ad- justed share of Pueblo West’s annual growth was multiplied by the Colorado State De- mography Office’s annual projected population change for Pueblo County. As the State Demography Office’s population projection comprises an important basis for this projection, it is important to highlight that their annual projected population change for Pueblo County is the sum of four components: annual births, annual deaths, annual net migration, and annual change in group quarters. Each of these components was analyzed in depth and discussed later in this report. Ultimately, there appeared to be no compelling reasons to modify the State Demography Office’s population projec- tions for Pueblo County. Water as a Limiting Factor on Population Growth The population projection for Pueblo West in this report is based on economic, demo- graphic, and social factors, but it has not included the supply of water as a limiting fac- tor on growth. This “market-driven” construction and in-migration, as projected in this report, will likely not stop unless public policies or a functional shortage of water pre- vents such growth from occurring. Should population growth occur as projected in this report, Pueblo West will likely need to achieve significantly more than just the goals set in its 2012 Water Conservation Plan in order to avoid the possibility of water consump- tion restrictions and/or construction moratoria in the next 10 years. Residential Building Permits Residential building permit totals are often some of the best available measures for es- timating population growth in sub-county areas. The entire electronic archive of build- ing permits issued by PRBD for new residential construction since 1997 was sorted monthly by unit type (single-family, townhome, duplex, triplex/fourplex, or apartment) for Pueblo West zip code 81007, the City of Pueblo, and the rest of Pueblo County. The following table summarizes the total new residential units permitted annually in Pueblo County since 1997, along with the percent shares of total units permitted in Pueblo West, the City of Pueblo, or the rest of the County. Pueblo West’s share-of- County housing unit growth ratio utilized in the projection was derived from this da- taset. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 5 From 1997 to 2006, residential construction was very strong throughout Pueblo County, with Pueblo West’s annual number of units permitted ranging from 544 to 801 and typically exceeding the number of units permitted in the City of Pueblo. Then with the financial crisis of 2007-2008, and during the subsequent Great Recession, the num- ber of units permitted throughout Pueblo County dropped dramatically, and remained exceptionally low as compared to the pre-Recession levels. The number of units per- mitted in Pueblo West from 2009 to 2015, ranging from 36 to 76 units, was lower every year than the number of units permitted in the City of Pueblo. Finally, the num- ber of residential units permitted began to increase again in 2016, with Pueblo West experiencing more units permitted in 2018 and the beginning of 2019 than the City of Pueblo. Statewide, building permits have climbed from 2011 to 2017, with a significant portion of that growth being driven by multifamily construction, though many Front Range counties to the north appear to have perhaps reached a building permit “peak” or “plateau” in 2016. From comparing building permit trends to other Front Range and Southern Colorado counties, it seems unlikely that the Pueblo County market will reach its pre-Recession levels of residential construction in the next 10 years, but it is plausible for Pueblo West to rise back up to a peak of 416 units in 2026, as is projected. Births, Deaths, and Net Migration The county level is usually the lowest geographical subdivision for which comprehen- sive counts of births, deaths, and net migration (total in-migration minus total out-mi- gration) can be prepared. The State Demography Office’s annual Pueblo County popu- lation projections are essentially separate projections of births, deaths, and net migra- tion. The following table summarizes Pueblo County’s total annual births, deaths, and net migration since 2000, as well as those projected from 2019 to 2029. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Dwelling Units 1,149 1,337 1,435 1,094 1,344 1,229 1,307 1,278 1,165 1,266 684 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)64%60%50%43%41%44%49%48%57%53%51% Pueblo City 25%31%39%44%49%45%42%43%35%38%36% Rest of Pueblo County 11%9%11%13%9%11%8%10%8%9%13% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Dwelling Units 436 379 236 120 275 162 151 294 216 329 360 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)42%18%32%31%13%24%24%19%44%38%64% Pueblo City 42%70%45%43%74%51%52%70%40%51%25% Rest of Pueblo County 15%12%22%26%13%25%24%11%16%11%11% New Construction Building Permits Issued, with Shares of Total by Region - Pueblo County Sources: Pueblo Regional Building Department; Pueblo County Assessor. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 6 Pueblo County has a significantly higher population mortality rate than most urbanized communities and Colorado as a whole. Pueblo County’s overall population mortality rate (annual deaths per 100,000 people) has held fairly steady since 2000, with the rate having generally risen for people between 35 to 55 years old and fallen for those 65+ years old. Pueblo West’s overall mortality rate is probably lower than the rate county- wide because of its lower proportion of people 75 years old and older. Meanwhile, the fertility rate in Pueblo County (annual births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49) has been dropping significantly since 2009. And from 2008 to at least 2017, the fertility rate for Pueblo West has clearly been lower than that of both Pueblo County and of Colorado as a whole, according to the ACS. The combination of these mortality and fertility trends has resulted in the State Demography Office projecting negligible population growth due to births versus deaths in Pueblo County over the next 10 years. The re- cent rate of population growth from births net of deaths has also probably been rather minimal in Pueblo West, and will likely remain so over the next 10 years. Below the county level, the ACS provides data about people who have moved to a par- ticular locality within the past year, but not about the people who have moved away from that locality. Still, by looking at the totality of sub-county areas in Pueblo County, it appears that migration from the City of Pueblo has historically been a major driver of population growth in Pueblo West. The majority of in-movers to Pueblo West CDP have come from those already living in Pueblo County, accounting for about 63% of to- tal movers in 2017, including those moving from one home in Pueblo West to another. 56% of those intra-county in-movers in Pueblo West CDP came from elsewhere in 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population - (July 1)141,854 143,996 146,481 147,972 148,720 149,969 152,064 154,759 156,252 157,324 Annual Pop. Change 2,136 2,142 2,485 1,491 748 1,249 2,095 2,695 1,493 1,072 Births - Past 12 Months 1,927 2,004 1,985 2,060 1,946 1,993 2,014 2,143 2,167 2,038 Deaths - Past 12 Months 1,380 1,393 1,482 1,451 1,526 1,546 1,412 1,509 1,608 1,558 Net Migration - Past 12 Months 1,589 1,531 1,982 882 328 802 1,493 2,061 934 592 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Population - (July 1)159,496 159,809 160,361 160,669 161,042 162,664 164,447 165,974 167,274 168,401 Annual Pop. Change 2,172 313 552 308 373 1,622 1,783 1,527 1,300 1,127 Births - Past 12 Months 2,070 1,865 1,878 1,852 1,921 1,874 1,851 1,788 1,848 1,818 Deaths - Past 12 Months 1,542 1,651 1,591 1,622 1,631 1,734 1,714 1,785 1,768 1,787 Net Migration - Past 12 Months 1,644 99 265 78 83 1,482 1,646 1,524 1,220 1,096 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Population - (July 1)169,470 170,646 172,846 175,041 177,232 179,423 181,725 183,741 185,761 187,785 Annual Pop. Change 1,069 1,177 2,200 2,195 2,191 2,191 2,302 2,016 2,020 2,024 Births - Past 12 Months 1,788 1,815 1,850 1,873 1,898 1,935 1,982 2,019 2,049 2,075 Deaths - Past 12 Months 1,805 1,823 1,844 1,870 1,898 1,928 1,959 1,991 2,024 2,058 Net Migration - Past 12 Months 1,086 1,185 2,194 2,193 2,191 2,184 2,279 1,989 1,995 2,007 Source: Colorado State Demography Office Pueblo County Population Estimates and Projections - State Demographer Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 7 Pueblo County in 2017, although the number of people moving from one home to an- other within Pueblo West has been increasing over the past two decades. In contrast, the vast majority of intra-county in-movers in the City of Pueblo have moved from one home to another within the City. But from 2011 to 2016, it appears that migration from Pueblo West to the City of Pueblo – or at least a larger number of movers favor- ing the City of Pueblo over Pueblo West – played a role in Pueblo West’s stagnant pop- ulation growth during that period. Jobs, Employment, and Wage Growth The State Demography Office’s population and net migration forecasts for counties are essentially based on a forecast of job growth (or decline) for each county as well as statewide. The following graph shows the annual percent change in total private and government employment for Pueblo County, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta- tistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). While job loss in 2009 and 2010 was more acute statewide, Pueblo County’s rate of job growth remained close to 0% until 2014, whereas job growth began to recover statewide in 2011. And while there are some Front Range counties to the north which have been undergoing exceptional job growth since 2011, others have had job growth rates only just a bit higher than Pueblo County’s in the past few years. Another moder- ately positive indicator for Pueblo County has been a slight upward trend in average annual pay adjusted for inflation since 2007, according to the QCEW, although average pay in Pueblo County was projected to have dropped noticeably by the end of 2018. 3.5% 1.4%0.8% -0.9%-1.2%-0.5%-0.6% 0.9%2.6%3.0% 0.8% -2.7% 0.0%1.5% -0.1% 0.2%1.7%1.8%2.2%1.5%0.8% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Pueblo County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 8 According to the ACS, Pueblo West CDP’s unemployment rate in 2017 was 6.6%, versus 9.3% throughout Pueblo County and 5.2% statewide. Whereas Pueblo West’s unem- ployment rate was lower than Colorado’s in 2007, it was higher than Colorado’s in 2017, and about 1.5% higher than its pre-Recession rate. Pueblo County’s unemploy- ment rate was also about 1.5% higher in 2017 than in 2007, which was likely attributa- ble to all of Pueblo County’s neighboring Southern Colorado counties experiencing sig- nificant negative job growth nearly every year from 2009 to 2014 and, in some cases, up to 2017. Job and employment growth in Pueblo County seem to have risen to moderately posi- tive levels since 2014, following several tough years of stagnant job growth and rising unemployment after the crash in 2009. Continued job, employment, and wage growth at moderate levels over the following three years seem to be the most reasonable pro- jection for Pueblo County, barring downturns in any of those metrics in 2019. Foreclosures Interestingly, the data on foreclosures seems to indicate that the foreclosure crisis was no worse in Pueblo County than it was elsewhere in Colorado and the Front Range. Ac- cording to the Colorado Division of Housing, Pueblo County’s foreclosure filing rate was already quite high in 2005 and 2006, at 1.57% and 1.75% annual filings as a percent of total housing units – before the financial crisis and its foreclosure rate peak of 2.27% in 2009. Pueblo County’s foreclosure rate peak was no higher than the rate of many Front Range counties to its north, and notably lower than some counties which ap- proached 3.5%. But in contrast, Pueblo County’s foreclosure rate stayed elevated for longer and has been a higher-than-typical outlier since about 2012. This has probably been a function of stagnant housing values in Pueblo County, as well as a more tenu- ous economic recovery overall. It also may be an indication, as noted in some inter- views, that one component of Pueblo West’s recent growth has been homebuyers una- ble to qualify for a mortgage in other Front Range markets. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 9 Home Values and Rents Home values in Pueblo West and throughout Pueblo County, which have tended to be significantly lower than other Front Range counties to the north, have had conflicting effects on Pueblo West’s population growth. As shown in the ta- ble to the right, Pueblo West CDP’s median, upper quar- tile, and lower quartile home values adjusted for in- flation have actually de- creased from 2007 to 2017, after experiencing an in- crease from 2000 to 2007. This trend has been contrary to the growth in home val- ues elsewhere in Colorado, also shown to the right. An important in-migration trend noted by interview- ees, and backed by the available data, are home- owners from other Front Range markets drawn to the opportunity to buy a simi- larly desirable home in Pueblo West at a signifi- cantly lower price, allowing them to make a potentially substantial profit from the sale of their previous home. Growth due to Pueblo West’s home price advantage, though, is at least partly dependent upon the continued strength of real estate prices elsewhere in Colorado. $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006- 2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. $ 2018 Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Pueblo West CDP -Adjusted for Inflation Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006- 2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. $ 2018 Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units State of Colorado -Adjusted for Inflation Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 10 On the other hand, homebuilders reported that because home prices have barely risen in Pueblo West for at least a decade, their profit margins are becoming critically squeezed because of rising construction costs and a tighter construction labor market throughout Colorado. As a result, there is particular homogeneity in the price and type of homes being built in Pueblo West, which has likely limited Pueblo West’s appeal to various types of homebuyers while perhaps reducing its potential to retain current res- idents who may be looking for a different type of housing. Similarly, the development economics and cash flow potential for multifamily projects also appear to be prohibitively challenging in Pueblo West, according to some inter- viewees. The last apartment project built in Pueblo West were 24 units in 2001. Ac- cording to the quarterly Colorado Multi-Family Vacancy & Rental Survey, the median rent in the Pueblo market was only 51% of the median rent in Metro Denver as of the third quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2016, the apartment vacancy rate in the Pueblo market is been between about 2% and 4%, which is very low and lower than other urban Front Range markets. But as recently as 2012 and 2013, the apartment vacancy rate in the Pueblo market was above 15%, which is very high. Many of the spikes in vacancy in the Pueblo market corresponded with the opening of newly con- structed apartment complexes in the City of Pueblo. It therefore seems reasonable to project, at most, very limited multifamily growth potential in Pueblo West in the next few years. Commuters Pueblo West is indeed a “bedroom community,” meaning that its growth is intercon- nected with jobs and economic growth in neighboring communities and counties. Ac- cording to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data, 45.7% of all jobs held by Pueblo West CDP residents were located in the City of Pueblo in 2015, 10.6% in El Paso County, and only 9.9% in Pueblo West. From 2002 to 2015, the proportion of Pueblo West residents working in Pueblo County has dropped, and the most notable increase in the location of residents’ jobs has been Metro Denver and Northern Colo- rado, accounting for 13.1% of jobs in 2015. This increase in the number of Pueblo West super-commuters to Metro Denver and Northern Colorado seems consistent with the trend of homeowners from elsewhere in the Front Range being attracted to Pueblo West’s home price advantage. Pueblo West will likely continue to appeal to longer-distance commuters over the next 10 years, with its main drawback being sheer distance from other job hubs outside of Pueblo County. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 11 Children and School Districts Pueblo West’s location within Pueblo County School District 70 has long been noted as a major motivating factor for many of the people who move to Pueblo West. The pro- portion of households in Pueblo West with one or more people under the age of 18, though, has decreased since 2000 at a rate significantly higher than in the City of Pueblo and statewide. Part of this sharper decline may be due to Colorado’s open en- rollment law, which has enabled non-resident pupils to enroll in D-70 schools. Still, ac- cording to the ACS, Pueblo West had a higher proportion of households with children in 2017, at 34.9%, than the City of Pueblo, at 30.1%, and Colorado statewide, at 31.6%. In combination with lower fertility rates in Pueblo County since 2007, households with children moving to Pueblo West will perhaps be less of a component of population growth than before, but nonetheless will probably remain an important factor driving its in-migration. Retirees and Seniors Pueblo West CDP’s median age, at 39.3 years in 2017 according to the ACS, was nota- bly higher than the median age in the City of Pueblo, at 37.5 years, and statewide, at 36.5 years. Pueblo West’s senior population, though, also has a rather unique age- bracket composition, with a much higher-than-typical and growing proportion of those ages 55 to 74 years, but a lower-than-typical proportion of those in the 75 to 84 and 85+ age brackets. For example, the proportion of Pueblo West’s population 85+ years old in 2017 was only about 67% of the proportion statewide and about 36% of the pro- portion in the City of Pueblo. But on the younger end, 24.0% of Pueblo West’s popula- tion were aged 55 to 74 years old in 2017, versus only 14.7% in 2000. Pueblo West’s semi-rural nature, along with its relative lack of housing oriented to- wards seniors, has likely been driving some out-migration of its older seniors. In con- trast, retirees have likely composed a significant part of Pueblo West’s in-migration. From 2000 to 2017, according to the ACS, the proportion of total households with re- tirement income in Pueblo West CDP grew by almost 50%, whereas it only grew by 14% in Colorado statewide, and actually fell slightly in the City of Pueblo. In 2017, 26.5% of all households in Pueblo West received retirement income, versus 22.1% in the City of Pueblo, and only 16.6% in Colorado statewide. Military and Veterans Active duty military members and their families comprise, at most, probably only Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 12 about 0.5% to 1.0% of Pueblo West’s current population. A very sizeable component of Pueblo West CDP’s population, though, are military veterans, comprising 14.6% of its civilian adult population in 2017, according to the ACS. The total number of veter- ans has dropped statewide and throughout Pueblo County since 2000, primarily as a function of the diminishing number of surviving veterans who served from World War II through the Vietnam era. Pueblo West’s proportion of veterans has not fallen as sig- nificantly since 2000, and its total number of veterans has actually increased since 2000, indicating that veterans discharged more recently have been an important part of in-migration to Pueblo West during the past two decades. Population growth driven by those leaving military service is probably going to be a ra- ther stable trend over the next 10 years, rather than one filled with spikes and valleys. Any major decreases in overall troop levels nationally, resulting in a higher rate of dis- charges, would probably contribute to some influx of population growth in Pueblo West, though such a military contraction seems rather unlikely. Any decreases in troop levels at Fort Carson or other regional military bases would also probably have a slight effect on Pueblo West population growth, though the corresponding negative eco- nomic impact regionally would perhaps have a greater effect on growth trends. Risks and Factors for Future Consideration Overall, it is important to note that zero or even negative population growth is a possi- bility in Pueblo West in the next 10 years, simply because it has occurred there before recently. This projection has attempted to reflect a realistic “positive case” economic scenario for Pueblo West, but it is not possible to predict with certainty any unex- pected recessions or economic crises that may affect Pueblo West, Pueblo County, Col- orado, the nation, or even the world. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 13 Current Population Estimate Review of Existing Estimates One of the two purposes of this report is to provide a current population estimate for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District. There are two major public, government-pre- pared sources of recent population estimates for Pueblo West: the American Commu- nity Survey (ACS), prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau; and the Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) estimates of population by Conservation Trust Fund (CTF) Spe- cial District, prepared by the Colorado State Demography Office for purposes of dis- tributing quarterly CTF dollars to special districts that provide parks and recreation services. An important limitation of the ACS estimates is that the Census Bureau prepares data totals for within the geographic boundaries of the Pueblo West Census Designated Place (CDP), but not for within the boundaries of the Pueblo West Metropolitan Dis- trict. The boundaries of the CDP are somewhat different than those of the Metropoli- tan District. According to a review of the Pueblo County Assessor’s GIS database, there are 61 housing units located in Pueblo West CDP but not Pueblo West Metropolitan District, and there are no housing units located in the District but not the CDP. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American FactFinder Pueblo West CDP CDPCDP Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 14 The ACS’s most recent estimated population for Pueblo West CDP was 30,901 people as of July 1, 2017. The Census Bureau’s ACS population estimation methodology for sub-county areas is somewhat complex, but it essentially involves creating household population estimates for small areas based on average household sizes and occupancy rates, and then controlling these small area estimates so that they add up to county to- tals. The county totals are calculated from administrative records showing population changes – including births, deaths, immigration, migration, military movements, and building permits – being added to previous Census totals. Group quarters population estimates are then added to the sum of the controlled small area estimates comprising the sub-county area. There were some significant discrepancies between 2010 Census and 2010 5-Year ACS population estimates for sub-county areas, and not solely be- cause Census totals are for April 1 and ACS totals are for July 1. For example, the 2010 Census population estimate in Pueblo West CDP was 29,623, but its 2010 ACS popula- tion estimate was 27,854. The complexity of the ACS sub-county methodology means that there are numerous reasons for this divergence from the Census count, but some may include: incomplete administrative records (e.g. undocumented immigration or address changes not updated); discrepancies between administrative records and ac- tual results (e.g. building permits issued but construction not completed); and the con- Source: Pueblo County GIS Pueblo West Metropolitan District Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 15 trolling of small area household population estimates to county totals causing any inac- curacies in average household sizes or occupancy rates to be amplified in sub-county sums. The State Demography Office’s most recent estimated population for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District was 30,986 persons as of July 1, 2017. The State Demography Office utilizes a housing unit method for CTF Special District population estimates. This basically means that population estimates are calculated by first dividing the spe- cial district into sub-areas (whenever appropriate), then multiplying estimates of the total housing units in those areas by their average household sizes and occupancy rates, and summing those totals with an estimate of the group quarters population in the district. This methodology for CTF Special District population estimates is limited by relying on those local governments to self-report critical data, including housing construction data and group quarters estimates. If housing construction data is not reported, then the State Demography Office relies on Census Bureau building permit estimates, which are prepared only down to the county and metropolitan area levels, and which can be heavily reliant on imputation. It also appears that the State Demog- raphy Office utilized the 2010 Census vacancy rate for Pueblo West CDP, 5.6%, for es- timating Pueblo West’s 2017 population estimate, although Pueblo West CDP’s va- cancy rate has declined in recent years and, according to the ACS, had dropped to 3.3% in 2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 16 Current Population Estimate ANDERSON ANALYTICS subsequently prepared a separate set of population estimates for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District with the aim of removing some of the in- consistencies associated with the ACS and State Demography Office estimates. An es- timate of its 2018 population, along with a current population estimate (as of March 1, 2019) for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District, were also prepared using the 2010 Census population for Pueblo West CDP as an anchor data point, and then applying the housing unit method with particular consideration for the quality of the annual variable inputs. As shown in the following table, the estimated current population in Pueblo West Metropolitan District, as of March 1, 2019, is 31,704 people. The current total number of housing units in Pueblo West, as of March 1, 2019, is estimated to be 11,954, of which 11,575 are estimated to be occupied and 379 vacant. In the preparation of these estimates, the 2010 Census household population and housing unit estimates for Pueblo West CDP were first adjusted to remove the 61 esti- mated housing units located in the CDP but not within the Metropolitan District. Utiliz- ing 2010 Census estimates of average household size and vacancy rates for Pueblo Year Total Population Group Quarters Pop 2/ Household Population Persons Per Unit 3/ Total Dwelling Units 4/ Occupied Dwelling Units Vacant Dwelling Units Vacancy Rate 5/ 2010 (Census - April 1) 1/29,478 108 29,370 2.756 11,286 10,657 629 5.570% 2011 30,162 108 30,054 2.810 11,378 10,695 683 6.000% 2012 29,818 108 29,710 2.760 11,415 10,764 651 5.700% 2013 30,491 108 30,383 2.790 11,451 10,890 561 4.900% 2014 31,007 108 30,899 2.810 11,490 10,996 494 4.300% 2015 30,407 108 30,299 2.770 11,526 10,938 588 5.100% 2016 30,525 108 30,417 2.730 11,582 11,142 440 3.800% 2017 30,934 108 30,826 2.730 11,677 11,292 385 3.300% 2018 31,299 103 31,196 2.730 11,801 11,427 374 3.168% 2019 (March 1 estimate)31,704 103 31,601 2.730 11,954 11,575 379 3.168% 2/ 2010 Census total for 2010 through 2017; 2018 Esri estimate for 2018 through 2019. 3/ Annual 5-Year ACS estimates for 2011 through 2017; 2017 5-Year ACS estimate for 2018 through 2019. 5/ Annual 5-Year ACS estimates for 2011 through 2017; 2018 Esri estimate for 2018 through 2019. Pueblo West Metropolitan District (as of July 1 - except as noted) Estimated Population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; American Community Survey (ACS), 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017; Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD); Esri; and ANDERSON ANALYTICS . 1/ Reflects 2010 Census data for Pueblo West Census Designated Place (CDP) adjusted for the 61 dwelling units in CDP but outside of the Pueblo West Metropolitan District. 4/ Totals from 2011 to 2017 reflects previous year plus total annual housing units permitted in Pueblo West (zip code 81007), lagged 6-months for construction completion, according to PRBD. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 17 West CDP, the 2010 Census CDP household population of 29,529 was therefore re- duced by 159 people, and the 10,715 occupied dwelling units in the CDP were reduced by 58 units. Then for July 1 of the following year, 92 units were added to the April 1, 2010 Census total dwelling units of 11,286 to reflect the 92 total housing units permitted by the Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD) in Pueblo West (zip code 81007) from the start of October 2009 to the end of December 2010. With a presumed 6-month lag from the date of building permit issuance to construction completion, these 92 housing units were thus added to Pueblo West’s total housing stock from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011. PRBD issued no housing demolition permits during this timeframe or thereaf- ter. The 2011 ACS housing vacancy rate of 6.00% in Pueblo West CDP was then applied to this estimate of total housing units to yield 10,695 occupied housing units. Next, the 2011 ACS average household size of 2.810 persons per unit in Pueblo West CDP was applied to yield an estimated household population of 30,054 people. For lack of a subsequent available estimate, the 2010 Census Pueblo West CDP group quarters population estimate of 108 people was then utilized again in 2011 to add to the household population, yielding a total estimated population of 30,162 on July 1, 2011. Pueblo West’s group quarters population has only been comprised of assisted living facility residents, as there have been no jails, school dormitories, barracks, etc., within its boundaries. The State Demography Office has also utilized this group quar- ters estimate of 108 people in its 2011 through 2017 population estimate calculations for Pueblo West Metropolitan District, as Pueblo West’s three assisted living facilities were opened in 1997, 2003, and 2009. There also currently appear to be one or two assisted living operations located in single-family homes in Pueblo West, but likely housing less than 4 or 5 residents each. This process of using annual PRBD building permit totals, ACS average household sizes, and ACS vacancy rates to calculate estimated household and total populations was then repeated through July 1, 2017. As ACS estimates had not yet been released for any year after 2017, Esri’s estimated 2018 vacancy rate of 3.168% was utilized for the July 1, 2018 and March 1, 2019 occu- pied housing unit estimates. Esri is a commercial geodatabase providing mapping of Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 18 Census, ACS, and other public and proprietary demographic, economic, and market data through its ArcGIS software. According to Esri, its 2018 vacancy rate is from United States Postal Service (USPS) vacancy data as well as other sources. USPS va- cancy data, which the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) makes available quarterly on the Census-tract level to qualified governments and non- profits, is based on addresses that postal delivery staff recorded as having not col- lected their mail for 90 days or longer. USPS vacancy data is generally considered to be reliable. It may, however, underreport shorter-term vacancies or instances when a realtor, owner, or property manager continues to collect an unoccupied property’s mail, but overall it is a high quality source. An alternative vacancy rate source consid- ered were water meter zero reads from Pueblo West’s water billing system, although it was indicated that an unknown number of aging and stuck water meters could skew zero reads as a true representation of housing vacancy. The 2017 ACS average household size of 2.730 persons per unit was then utilized for the July 1, 2018 and March 1, 2019 household population estimates. Households with children and households with retirees have both historically been important compo- nents of Pueblo West’s household growth. Therefore, in the absence of data indicating Pueblo West’s precise average household size in 2018 and 2019, it seemed better to assume no change than to speculate. Finally, Esri’s 2018 group quarters estimate of 103 people was utilized to estimate that Pueblo West’s total population was 31,299 people on July 1, 2018, and that Pueblo West’s current population as of March 1, 2019 is 31,704 people. The March 2019 esti- mate reflects a total population change of just 2,226 persons since the 2010 Census, and over half of that growth is estimated to have occurred since 2016. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 19 Population Projection and Methodology 10-Year Population Projection The other purpose of this report is to provide annual population projections from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2029 for Pueblo West Metropolitan District, based on its current esti- mated population as of March 1, 2019. The ACS and the State Demography Office also prepare their population estimates for July 1 of each year. The following table shows the current estimated population, the projected annual population changes, and the projected total annual population for Pueblo West over the next 10 years. The pro- jected population totals for Pueblo West include both total household population and total group quarters population. The process and methodology used to prepare this projection are discussed in subsequent parts of this report. The following table also shows the projected number of total housing units, occupied housing units, and new housing units anticipated to be added in Pueblo West over the next 10 years. These projected totals are based off the March 1, 2019 estimate of 11,954 total housing units and 11,575 occupied housing units in Pueblo West. In short, Pueblo West’s population is projected to grow by 9,445 people from March 1, 2019, to July 1, 2029, with a total of 3,573 new housing units projected to be added during this timeframe. As will be discussed in subsequent parts of this report, there is probably a greater likelihood of actual population growth being lower than this projec- tion than there is of actual growth being much higher than this projection. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Estimated Population (Mar 1)31,704 ---------- Projected Population (July 1)31,883 32,394 32,957 34,008 35,057 36,105 37,152 38,252 39,216 40,181 41,149 Annual Population Change -511 563 1,052 1,049 1,047 1,047 1,100 964 965 967 Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Population 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 New Housing Units -193 213 398 397 396 396 416 365 365 366 Total Housing Units 12,022 12,215 12,428 12,826 13,223 13,619 14,015 14,431 14,796 15,161 15,527 Occupied Housing Units 11,641 11,828 12,034 12,420 12,804 13,187 13,571 13,974 14,327 14,681 15,035 Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Housing Units (July 1) Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 20 Methodology for Calculating the Population Projection This 10-year population projection for Pueblo West was calculated using a share-of- County housing unit growth method that includes four general steps: 1. An estimate was first prepared of Pueblo West’s annual percent share of total new housing units constructed in Pueblo County. 2. Then, a vacancy factor was applied to the projected annual total of new Pueblo West housing units. 3. The share-of-County growth in residential units was multiplied by the ratio of average Pueblo West household size to average Pueblo County household size in order to account for the per-unit difference in population growth. 4. Finally, this adjusted share of Pueblo West’s annual growth was multiplied by the State Demography Office’s annual projected population change for Pueblo County to yield Pueblo West’s projected annual population change. The table below shows the components and inputs used in this calculation. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Pueblo County Population Projection - State Demographer Population - (July 1)168,401 169,470 170,646 172,846 175,041 177,232 179,423 181,725 183,741 185,761 187,785 Annual Population Change 1,127 1,069 1,177 2,200 2,195 2,191 2,191 2,302 2,016 2,020 2,024 Births - Previous 12 Months 1,818 1,788 1,815 1,850 1,873 1,898 1,935 1,982 2,019 2,049 2,075 Deaths - Previous 12 Months 1,787 1,805 1,823 1,844 1,870 1,898 1,928 1,959 1,991 2,024 2,058 Net Migration - Previous 12 Months 1,096 1,086 1,185 2,194 2,193 2,191 2,184 2,279 1,989 1,995 2,007 Pueblo West Share of County Growth P.W. - Share of New Housing Units 1/45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16%45.16% P.W. - Avg. New Household Size 2/2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 County - Avg. New Household Size 3/2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 P.W. - Vacancy Rate 2/3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17%3.17% P.W. - Share of New County Pop.47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80%47.80% Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Population Estimated Population (Mar 1)31,704 ---------- Projected Population (July 1)31,883 32,394 32,957 34,008 35,057 36,105 37,152 38,252 39,216 40,181 41,149 Annual Population Change -511 563 1,052 1,049 1,047 1,047 1,100 964 965 967 Pueblo West Metropolitan District - Projected Housing Units New Housing Units -193 213 398 397 396 396 416 365 365 366 Total Housing Units 12,022 12,215 12,428 12,826 13,223 13,619 14,015 14,431 14,796 15,161 15,527 Occupied Housing Units 11,641 11,828 12,034 12,420 12,804 13,187 13,571 13,974 14,327 14,681 15,035 Sources: Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA), State Demography Office; Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD); Esri; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2005, 2006, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017; and ANDERSON ANALYTICS . Calculation of Pueblo West Population Projection 1/ Pueblo West's share of all new units permitted from 1999 to 2018, per PRBD data. 2/ Assumed to remain equal to July 2018 and March 2019 estimates. 3/ Average of ACS estimated vacancy rate from 2005 to 2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 21 As presented in the table above, Pueblo West’s share-of-County housing unit growth from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2018 was 45.16%. This percentage is a key driv- ing input in the calculation, and is discussed in the following section titled “Population Change Metrics and Indicators.” The average household size in Pueblo County of 2.50 is the average annual ACS esti- mate for every available year in Pueblo County, from 2005 to 2017. According to ACS and Census estimates from 2000 to 2017, Pueblo County’s average household size has remained quite steady, only varying from a low of 2.46 in the 2010 Census, to a high of 2.53, according to the 2007 3-Year ACS. The average household size in Pueblo West of 2.73 reflects its ACS estimate in 2017 as well as 2016, which had also been used to calculate Pueblo West’s current population as of March 1, 2019. According to ACS and Census estimates from 2000 to 2017, Pueblo West’s average household size has varied from a high of 2.84, according to the 2007 3-Year ACS, to a low of 2.71, according to the 2010 5-Year ACS. As discussed later in “Economic and Demographic Factors,” there are some demographic trends in Pueblo West, like more retirees and fewer households with children, which suggest a possible downward trend in household size. But in contrast, it also seems less likely that there will be a shift in Pueblo West towards smaller home, townhome, or multi- family construction in the near future. The housing vacancy rate of 3.17% reflects Pueblo West’s 2018 estimated vacancy rate according to Esri. According to ACS and Census estimates from 2000 to 2017, Pueblo West’s housing vacancy rate has varied from a high of 6.1%, according to the 2000 Census, to 3.3%, according to the 2017 5-Year ACS. Its vacancy rate had also been dropping every year since reaching another peak of 6.0% in 2011. As discussed later in “Population Change Metrics and Indicators” and in “Economic and Demographic Fac- tors,” it seems unlikely that Pueblo West will experience overbuilding in the near fu- ture. The State Demography Office’s annual population projections for each county are based on four components: annual births, annual deaths, annual net migration, and annual change in group quarters. The State Demography Office projects deaths based on trends in mortality rates for various populations. Likewise, it projects births based on trends in fertility rates for various populations, making key assumptions about fu- ture fertility rates. For projections of net migration, the State Demography Office first Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 22 prepares an economic model which forecasts both labor supply and labor demand for Colorado and each of its counties. Then, net migration in each county is calculated as a function of changes in the number of jobs resulting from the differences between sup- ply and demand. These trends in mortality rates, fertility rates, and jobs are discussed in the following section titled “Population Change Metrics and Indicators.” Along with share-of-County housing unit growth, the State Demography Office’s popu- lation projections for Pueblo County are key driving inputs in this projection. The jump in the State Demography Office’s forecasted in-migration for Pueblo County from 2021 to 2022 was noted as unusual and considered for modification. This jump is most likely the result of their economic forecasting model switching from a more refined, shorter- term projection to a more general, longer-term projection. This jump also reflects the difficulty of predicting when Pueblo County’s economic growth and recovery cycle from the Great Recession might eventually plateau. For absence of a data-driven rea- son to suggest that such a plateau might occur in 2021, 2022, or perhaps a bit sooner or later, this jump was not modified. Aside from that, there appeared to be no com- pelling reasons to modify the State Demography Office’s population projections for Pueblo County. A variety of different model inputs, based on empirical data and reasonable assump- tions, were tested to produce a range of possible projections. Ultimately, the results of the projection calculation are probably more important than the methodology it- self. The critical question is if the projection conforms with behavior seen in the past under conditions similar to what is reasonably expected in the future. The results of the particular projection calculated above were chosen following empirical analysis of the major demographic, economic, policy, and practical factors likely to shape Pueblo West’s population changes over the next 10 years. First, the major factors likely to shape Pueblo West’s population changes were identi- fied. Interviews were conducted with several Pueblo West homebuilders, community leaders, and members of the Metropolitan District staff regarding their observations and hypotheses about population growth factors, trends, and outlook. Empirical da- tasets regarding the key factors and trends identified in these interviews were then collected for review. These key topics included jobs, employment, wage growth, fore- closures, home values, rental rates and vacancies, commuters and commuting pat- terns, children and schools, seniors, retirees, military employment, and veterans. The goal was to test anecdotal observations and hypotheses against available empirical Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 23 data. Datasets for these topics were analyzed with an historical mindset by looking at change over time, as well as by treating all data points and datasets as comparative. Whenever possible, at least a decade’s worth of data was collected and reviewed. In addition to collecting datasets for Pueblo West Metropolitan District, Pueblo West CDP, and Pueblo County, datasets for many other geographic areas were collected for comparison, including: the City of Pueblo, the State of Colorado, every other Front Range county, and the other Southern Colorado counties neighboring Pueblo County. The subsequent section in this report titled “Economic and Demographic Factors” pre- sent the findings of this analytical effort. Comparison with Past Population Growth Trends As a comparison to the 10-year projected growth of 9,265 people and 3,505 housing units in Pueblo West from July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2029, the following table summarizes the known population estimates, as well as the annual population changes implied from those estimates, for Pueblo West CDP from the Census and ACS since 2000. The following table also summarizes the known total and occupied housing unit estimates, as well as the annual housing unit changes implied from those estimates, for Pueblo West CDP from the 2000 Census and the ACS since 2007. From 2007 to 2010 or 2011, according to ACS estimates – and indeed from 2000 to 2010 or 2011, according to a mix of ACS and Census estimates – Pueblo West CDP’s an- nual population growth exceeded 1,000 people per year. The population changes from 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Population Estimates - ACS & Census Pueblo West CDP Population - ACS (July 1)-24,534 25,733 27,320 27,854 29,071 29,500 29,955 30,655 30,440 30,495 30,901 Annual Pop. Change - ACS --1,199 1,587 534 1,217 429 455 700 -215 55 406 Population - Census (April 1)16,899 ---29,637 ------- Housing Unit Estimates - ACS & Census Pueblo West CDP Total Housing Units - ACS -9,154 9,763 10,554 10,725 10,950 11,271 11,266 11,340 11,506 11,556 11,653 Annual Change of Total Units - ACS ---791 171 225 321 -5 74 166 50 97 Occupied Housing Units - ACS -8,632 9,301 9,991 10,260 10,290 10,626 10,712 10,848 10,919 11,118 11,266 Annual Change of Occup. Units - ACS ---690 269 30 336 86 136 71 199 148 Total Housing Units - Census 6,374 ---11,347 ------- Occupied Housing Units - Census 5,984 ---10,715 ------- Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census, 2010 Census; American Community Survey (ACS), 2005, 2006, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017 Summary of Known Population Estimates and Housing Units Counts - Pueblo West CDP, 2000 to 2017 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 24 2009 to 2010 and 2011 are somewhat ambiguous because of the disparity in popula- tion estimates from the 2010 ACS and 2010 Census. The highest annual population growth projected in Pueblo West in the next 10 years is 1,052 people from 2021 to 2022, which is therefore on the lower end of Pueblo West’s pre-Recession annual growth range, according to ACS and Census estimates. Then from 2011 to 2014 and 2016 to 2017, according to ACS estimates, Pueblo West CDP’s annual population growth ranged from 406 to 700 people. The low end of the annual population growth projected in Pueblo West in the next 10 years, with 511 people in 2019 to 2020 and 563 people in 2020 to 2021, is within the range of these post-Recession annual growth totals. Finally, according to ACS estimates, Pueblo West CDP experienced population loss from 2014 to 2015 and very minimal population change from 2015 to 2016. This projection does not include any years of population loss, although it is a distinct possi- bility for Pueblo West should there be unforeseen economic crises or recessions. The annual changes in housing units in Pueblo West CDP from 2007 to 2017, according to ACS estimates, do not seem to match the annual changes in population in a particularly logical manner, nor do they match actual building permit totals for Pueblo West from the PRBD database. This is likely primarily a function of the ACS being based on ongo- ing survey samples and controlling sub-county estimates to add up to separately pre- pared county totals, whereas the Census is more of an attempt at a comprehensive count. So, as another comparison to the 10-year projected population and housing unit growth in Pueblo West, the following table summarizes the 10-year population and housing unit growth in Pueblo West CDP according to the last two completed Cen- suses, in 2000 and 2010. The following table also includes the total housing units that were issued a building permit by PRBD in Pueblo West (zip code 81007) from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2009, in order to best approximate the total housing units constructed between the 2000 Census and 2010 Census. Finally, the following table includes all of these totals for Pueblo County in order to calculate Pueblo West’s share- of-County growth during this 10-year period. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 25 From 2000 to 2010, Pueblo West CDP’s share of population growth was 72.4%, but its share of total residential unit growth was 46.9%, according to the Censuses, and 46.8%, according to PRBD permit data. From 2019 to 2029, Pueblo West’s share-of- County population growth is projected to be 47.80%, and its share-of-County residen- tial unit growth is projected to be 45.16%. Several factors account for the differing dis- parities between population and housing unit share-of-County percentages. As dis- cussed later, there are indications that the City of Pueblo’s share-of-County growth has recently been stronger in comparison to Pueblo West’s than in decades past. Pueblo West’s average household size has also been larger than Pueblo County’s – 2.80, ac- cording to the 2000 Census, and 2.76, according to the 2010 Census, versus 2.52 and 2.46, respectively – and even larger than the City of Pueblo’s, which was 2.44 and 2.37, respectively. Pueblo County’s housing vacancy rate also increased from 7.4%, accord- ing to the 2000 Census, to 9.4%, according to the 2010 Census, whereas Pueblo West CDP’s housing vacancy rate decreased from 6.1% to 5.6%. Furthermore, 14.8% of the total residential units permitted in Pueblo County from 2000 to 2010 were multifamily or townhome units, versus only 5.0% in Pueblo West. Finally, as a reality check, Pueblo West CDP experienced a 10-year population growth total of 12,738 people from the 2000 Census to 2010 Census, versus total projected growth of 9,265 people in Pueblo West Metropolitan District from 2019 to 2029. Water as a Limiting Factor on Population Growth Pueblo West Metropolitan District’s supply of raw potable water may be a serious and total limitation on its population growth in the next 10 years. The population projec- tion in this report is based on economic, demographic, and social factors, but it has not included the supply of water as a limiting factor on growth. The primary reason for this is because “market-driven” construction and in-migration will likely not stop unless public policies or a functional shortage of water prevents such growth from occurring. Population Growth, 2000 to 2010 Census Residential Units Permitted, Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2009 Growth of Total Housing Units, 2000 to 2010 Census Growth of Occup. Housing Units, 2000 to 2010 Census Pueblo County 17,591 10,182 10,600 8,393 Pueblo West CDP 12,738 4,763 4,973 4,731 % Share of County 72.4%46.8%46.9%56.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census, 2010 Census; Pueblo Regional Building Department. 2000 to 2010 Census and Building Permit Growth Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 26 But should there be an imminent or actual inability of the Pueblo West Metropolitan District to supply sufficient water to its customers, there would most likely be serious and lasting repercussions on residential and nonresidential construction, as well as net population migration, in Pueblo West. Pueblo West currently has two “on-line” sources for its potable raw water supply, as well as two “off-line” sources. Its major water source is from ownership of shares in the Twin Lakes Reservoir and Canal Company, enabling water originating from Twin Lakes Reservoir in Lake County to be transferred to Pueblo Reservoir and pumped into Pueblo West’s water treatment and distribution system. Its other “on-line” water source is through ownership in shares in the Colorado Canal Company and Lake Mere- dith Company, though its yield is complicated by the need to exchange yields between Lake Meredith in Crowley County and Pueblo Reservoir, amongst other factors. The following table summarizes a rough estimate of the total population that can be sup- ported by Pueblo West Metropolitan District’s present water rights, based on average long-term potential yields from its current “on-line” raw water supply rights and aver- age per capita annual raw water consumption rates from 2011 through 2015. Based on these estimated average annual yields and recent water consumption rates, Pueblo West presently has potable raw water supply sufficient for about 30,704 people – which is insufficient for its current estimated population. Pueblo West has benefited in recent years from good water yields, as 2013 – during a serious drought in the Ar- kansas River Basin – was the last year that water levels in both Twin Lakes Reservoir and Pueblo Reservoir were beneath average capacity on August 1, according to the Shares or Units Owned Avg Annual Yield / Share 1/ Avg Annual Yield (Acre- feet) Average Annual Yield (Gallons) Per Capita Annual Raw Water Consumption (Gallons) 2/ Sustainable Population - Avg Annual Yield Twin Lakes Water 5,901 shares 0.95 acre feet / share 5,606 1,826,720,706 60,968.9 29,962 Colorado Canal Company / Lake Meredith Company 295 shares 0.47 acre feet / share 139 45,293,289 60,968.9 743 Total "On-Line" Raw Water Supply:5,745 1,872,013,995 60,968.9 30,704 Total Potable Raw Water Supply - Pueblo West 1/ Long-term potential yield, per studies conducted in 1998 and 2010, according to: JVA, Inc., Water Conservation Plan for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District , March 1, 2012, pg. 8. 2/ 2011 to 2015 average annual water consumption from all taps, based on 2015 mix of water taps per capita by customer type calculated with 2015 ACS population estimates, according to: JVA, Inc., Water Master Plan for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District , May 25, 2017, pgs. 12-14. Sources: JVA, Inc., Water Conservation Plan for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District, Water Master Plan for the Pueblo West Metropolitan District; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 27 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NSRC) Na- tional Water and Climate Center. In addition to its “on-line” water sources, Pueblo West Metropolitan District also owns rights to the Purgatoire and Dakota groundwater formations beneath the district, although its groundwater wells have long been off-line due to very poor yield, and because this water’s radioactivity has rendered it cost-pro- hibitive to treat. According to average yield estimates from the 2012 Water Conserva- tion Plan, the rough population that could be supported by Pueblo West’s groundwa- ter rights is 4,778 people. Furthermore, Pueblo West Metropolitan District acquired the agricultural water rights to Hill Ranch, located in Chaffee County along the Arkan- sas River, in 2006. The permit that would enable these water rights to convert from agricultural to municipal necessitates the revegetation of the Hill Ranch property to its natural, non-irrigation state, but Pueblo West has since faced serious unexpected ob- stacles which have prevented this from occurring. It is unclear when this situation might be resolved, though it is unlikely that the Hill Ranch water rights will come on- line for at least the next several years. According to average yield estimates from the 2012 Water Conservation Plan, the rough population that could be supported by the Hill Ranch rights is 8,872 people. In addition to bringing on-line these “off-line” water sources, another option is to im- prove upon the yield from Pueblo West’s current “on-line” water sources. This would primarily entail constructing or purchasing storage capacity in the form of reservoir space, as the storage capacity which Pueblo West currently owns in Pueblo Reservoir is limited and not guaranteed against spillage. Pueblo West Metropolitan District has ex- plored constructing or acquiring additional reservoir capacity in the past, though it is an expensive and challenging option. Yet another option is to acquire additional water rights. Pueblo West Metropolitan District has indicated that they have been, and will continue to be, actively in the market to purchase further water rights. Water rights for sale in Colorado, and in particular for water that can be delivered or exchanged for delivery to Pueblo West, is an extremely limited market, though. Opportunities in Col- orado for a municipal customer to purchase large-scale water rights can truly be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Another, and probably most immediate, option for Pueblo West is to reduce its current water consumption rates. As cited before, Pueblo West Metropolitan District prepared a Water Conservation Plan in 2012, which included a 20-year plan of conservation strategies and goals, broken into 5-year increments to allow for ongoing evaluation. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 28 The goals set in the Water Conservation Plan include an 8.6% reduction in overall wa- ter consumption rates by 2023, and a 9.0% reduction by 2028. These goals appear to have been set with the thinking that the projected average annual water demand at buildout is 8,073 acre feet, although that would support, at average per capita annual raw water consumption rates from 2011 through 2015, a total population of only about 43,147 people. It should also be noted that future growth in commercial, indus- trial, and other such types of water-intensive uses could increase future per capita wa- ter consumption rates. The 9.0% water conservation goal was then set in anticipation that Hill Ranch’s average annual yield of 1,660 acre feet of water, added to Twin Lakes’ and Colorado Canal/Lake Meredith’s combined average annual yield of 5,745 acre feet of water, would position Pueblo West about 700 acre-feet short of this projected buildout demand. Without Hill Ranch’s water, though, a 9.0% water conservation goal by 2028 would be insufficient for the 2028 population of 40,181 people projected in this report. Should population growth occur as projected in this report, Pueblo West would therefore need to achieve significantly more than just the goals set in its 2012 Water Conservation Plan in order to avoid the possibility of water consumption re- strictions and/or construction moratoria in the next 10 years. It is probably quite un- likely that annual water yields from Pueblo West’s existing water sources will be better than average in each of the next 10 years. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 29 Population Change Metrics and Indicators Residential Building Permits One of the best available proxy metrics for estimating and projecting population changes at the sub-county level is residential building permits. The Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD), which is responsible for issuing building permits through- out Pueblo County, provides an electronic database of all permits issued since 1997, which is readily searchable by the municipality or zip code of the construction site. The following graph displays the comparative trends in total residential dwelling units per- mitted in Pueblo West zip code 81007, in the City of Pueblo, and in the rest of Pueblo County, since 1997. A detailed table totaling the number of single-family homes, town- homes, duplex units, triplex/fourplex units, and apartment units for Pueblo West zip code 81007, the City of Pueblo, and the rest of Pueblo County is included in Figure 1 in the Appendix. The vast majority of residential units permitted in Pueblo West since 1997, along with the rest of Pueblo County, were single-family homes, with a small proportion of townhomes, duplexes, and triplex/fourplex units permitted in Pueblo West in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. The units permitted in the City of Pueblo have been a mix of all residential types, including apartments. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Total Dwelling Units PermittedSources: Pueblo Regional Building Department; Pueblo County Assessor. Pueblo County Building Permits Issued, 1997-2018 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)Pueblo City Rest of Pueblo County Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 30 From 1997 to 2006, residential construction was very strong throughout Pueblo County, with Pueblo West’s annual number of units permitted ranging from 544 to 801 and typically exceeding the number of units permitted in the City of Pueblo. Even dur- ing an economic downturn in Colorado from 2002 to 2003, when job growth was actu- ally negative statewide and in Pueblo County, the number of units permitted remained high. Then with the financial crisis of 2007-2008, and during the subsequent Great Re- cession, the number of units permitted throughout Pueblo County dropped dramati- cally, and remained exceptionally low as compared to the pre-Recession levels. The number of units permitted in Pueblo West from 2009 to 2015, ranging from 36 to 76 units, was lower every year than the number of units permitted in the City of Pueblo. The spikes in City of Pueblo units in 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2017, though, were attribut- able to apartment development projects. Finally, the number of residential units per- mitted began to increase again in 2016, with Pueblo West experiencing more units per- mitted in 2018 than the City of Pueblo. An important part of sub-county population projections is deducing patterns or trends in the locality’s share of total residential units constructed in the county market. In other words, what percent of Pueblo County’s residential construction typically occurs in Pueblo West every year? The following table summarizes, along with total residen- tial dwelling units permitted for Pueblo County, the percent share of units for Pueblo West zip code 81007, the City of Pueblo, and the rest of Pueblo County, since 1997. The share-of-County percentage used in the 10-year population projection for Pueblo West, which was Pueblo West’s share of total units from 1997 to 2018, or 45.16%, re- flects the lower end of its pre-Recession capture levels. While Pueblo West’s share dropped significantly during the Great Recession to below the City of Pueblo’s share, since 2016 it appears that Pueblo West’s share has recovered to being the dominant 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Dwelling Units 1,149 1,337 1,435 1,094 1,344 1,229 1,307 1,278 1,165 1,266 684 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)64%60%50%43%41%44%49%48%57%53%51% Pueblo City 25%31%39%44%49%45%42%43%35%38%36% Rest of Pueblo County 11%9%11%13%9%11%8%10%8%9%13% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Dwelling Units 436 379 236 120 275 162 151 294 216 329 360 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)42%18%32%31%13%24%24%19%44%38%64% Pueblo City 42%70%45%43%74%51%52%70%40%51%25% Rest of Pueblo County 15%12%22%26%13%25%24%11%16%11%11% New Construction Building Permits Issued, with Shares of Total by Region - Pueblo County Sources: Pueblo Regional Building Department; Pueblo County Assessor. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 31 region in the County market. As discussed in later sections, though, it seems that the City of Pueblo has become more competitive at capturing population growth in the Pueblo County market. A difficult situation is when an indicator is just beginning to trend upwards again, as the question then becomes: how high will that indicator rise before it “peaks” or “plat- eaus?” Since the number of building permits has only started to rise for Pueblo West and Pueblo County since 2016, one of the critical questions for this projection was whether or not Pueblo West will experience the same level of residential construction in the upcoming years as it did from the late 1990’s to 2007? Some interviewees were confident that Pueblo West’s residential construction market will get back up to 600+ units annually as before the Great Recession, but the majority of interviewees believed that Pueblo West’s new “normal” will be a more modest 300 or 400 units per year. Compared to other counties in the Front Range, particularly to its north, Pueblo County’s building permit data – along with other economic metrics – seem to reflect a prolonged economic recession after the crisis of 2007-2008, with recovery only starting to occur in 2016 or 2017. This trend is reflected in building permit data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Building Permit Survey. Census building permit data since 1980 was examined for Colorado statewide, as well as every county in the Front Range and in Southern Colorado neighboring Pueblo, in order to provide a comparative basis for what Pueblo County’s new building permit “peak” or “plateau” might be. The graph above shows the Census building permit totals for Pueblo County since 1980, and the graph below shows the totals for the Colorado. A limitation of the Census 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Pueblo County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 32 Building Permit Survey is that permit totals are imputed for geographic areas where ac- tual building permit data is not available or has not been reported, particularly outside of municipalities. The Census building permit totals match the actual PRBD totals for Pueblo County quite well, but not precisely. Statewide, building permits have climbed from 2011 to 2017, with a significant portion of that growth being driven by multifamily construction. Census building permit graphs for the other Front Range and neighboring counties are in Figure 2 of the Ap- pendix. With the exception of Denver County, which has experienced tremendous growth in wealth as well as in multifamily development, and Weld County, which has been undergoing extraordinary job growth above 5% annually, no county in the Front Range has reached or exceeded its pre-Recession levels of residential building permits. Many counties, including Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, El Paso, Jefferson, and Larimer, also appear to have perhaps reached a building permit “peak” or “plateau” in 2016. Therefore, at least on the basis of comparing building permit trends, it seems unlikely that the Pueblo County market will reach its pre-Recession levels of residential con- struction in the next 10 years, but that it is plausible for Pueblo West to rise back up to a peak of 416 units in 2026, as projected. Meanwhile, most Southern Colorado coun- ties, including Custer, Huerfano, Fremont, and Las Animas, also experienced a pro- longed downturn in residential construction, with building permits only beginning to rise in 2016 and 2017. Finally, it is also important to note that Pueblo County did not experience any of the spike in residential construction experienced elsewhere in Colo- rado during the mid-1980’s, when Pueblo’s industrial economy collapsed and was in crisis. Historically, the strength of the economy in other parts of Colorado and the 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. State of Colorado -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 33 Front Range has not buoyed population growth in Pueblo County very much whenever its local economy has been weak or in crisis. The table to the right summarizes the number of residential units permitted in Pueblo West and Pueblo County through March 21, 2019, as well as the projected annual units at the same rate of issuance. Historically, the number of building permits issued in Pueblo County and Pueblo West has not followed a clear seasonal pattern, but the number of permits issued through March 21 has been very strong com- pared to recent years. Some interviewees also indicated that there appear to be a strong number of residential projects in the pipe- line for Pueblo West in 2019. Pueblo West has also had the dominant share of residen- tial construction in Pueblo County through March 21, 2019. Therefore, it seems that the upward trend in the number of building permits for Pueblo West is on track to con- tinue in 2019. Mar 21, 2019 Proj. 2019 at Present Rate Pueblo West (81007)47 214 % Share of County 52.8%52.8% Pueblo City 27 123 % Share of County 30.3%30.3% Rest of County 15 68 % Share of County 16.9%16.9% Total 89 406 Source: Pueblo Regional Building Department. Total Residential Unit Permits Issued - Pueblo County Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 34 Births, Deaths, and Net Migration The 10-year population projection for Pueblo West is based on the State Demography Office’s population forecast for Pueblo County, which is composed of three main ele- ments: projected annual births, projected annual deaths, and projected net migration to/from Pueblo County. The State Demography Office’s estimates and projections of county births and deaths are based on birth and death data from the Colorado Depart- ment of Public Health and Environment (CPDHE). The State Demography Office’s esti- mates and projections of county net migration are based on migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The following table summarizes the estimated births, deaths, net migration, and total annual population change for Pueblo County from 2000 to 2018, along with the State Demography Office’s projection from 2019 to 2029. It is important to note that the difference between total annual births versus total an- nual deaths in Pueblo County has been declining since 2000, to the point that more deaths than births are projected in 2020. This means that without positive net migra- tion, the total population in Pueblo County is not projected to grow. In order to evalu- ate this trend, birth and death data was acquired from the National Vital Statistics Sys- tem (NVSS), which is a cooperative effort between states and the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The smallest geographic subdivision for NVSS birth and death data is the county level, meaning that accurate estimates of births and deaths are available for Pueblo County but not for Pueblo West. The following table summarizes the annual mortality 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population - (July 1)141,854 143,996 146,481 147,972 148,720 149,969 152,064 154,759 156,252 157,324 Annual Pop. Change 2,136 2,142 2,485 1,491 748 1,249 2,095 2,695 1,493 1,072 Births - Past 12 Months 1,927 2,004 1,985 2,060 1,946 1,993 2,014 2,143 2,167 2,038 Deaths - Past 12 Months 1,380 1,393 1,482 1,451 1,526 1,546 1,412 1,509 1,608 1,558 Net Migration - Past 12 Months 1,589 1,531 1,982 882 328 802 1,493 2,061 934 592 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Population - (July 1)159,496 159,809 160,361 160,669 161,042 162,664 164,447 165,974 167,274 168,401 Annual Pop. Change 2,172 313 552 308 373 1,622 1,783 1,527 1,300 1,127 Births - Past 12 Months 2,070 1,865 1,878 1,852 1,921 1,874 1,851 1,788 1,848 1,818 Deaths - Past 12 Months 1,542 1,651 1,591 1,622 1,631 1,734 1,714 1,785 1,768 1,787 Net Migration - Past 12 Months 1,644 99 265 78 83 1,482 1,646 1,524 1,220 1,096 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Population - (July 1)169,470 170,646 172,846 175,041 177,232 179,423 181,725 183,741 185,761 187,785 Annual Pop. Change 1,069 1,177 2,200 2,195 2,191 2,191 2,302 2,016 2,020 2,024 Births - Past 12 Months 1,788 1,815 1,850 1,873 1,898 1,935 1,982 2,019 2,049 2,075 Deaths - Past 12 Months 1,805 1,823 1,844 1,870 1,898 1,928 1,959 1,991 2,024 2,058 Net Migration - Past 12 Months 1,086 1,185 2,194 2,193 2,191 2,184 2,279 1,989 1,995 2,007 Source: Colorado State Demography Office Pueblo County Population Estimates and Projections - State Demographer Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 35 rate, which is total deaths in a year per 100,000 people, and the annual fertility rate, which is total births in a year per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49, for Pueblo County and Colorado. Pueblo County has a significantly higher population mortality rate than most urbanized communities and Colorado as a whole, and Pueblo County’s overall population mortal- ity rate has held fairly steady since 2000, as has Colorado’s. On a detailed age level, the mortality rate in Pueblo County for people between 35 to 55 years old has been ris- ing, while the mortality rate for people 65 years old and older has been falling. The State Demography Office’s death forecast for Pueblo County appear to take all of these trends into consideration and matches very closely with the regression trend-lines cal- culated from the NVSS data. The annual rises or falls of Pueblo County’s fertility rates since 2003 appear to mirror those of Colorado’s, although it appears that Pueblo County has had a consistently lower fertility rate than statewide before 2006, and higher after 2006. The fertility rate appears to have been rising to a peak from 2006 to 2008, and has been dropping signif- icantly since 2009. Extrapolating the State Demography Office’s projected births for Pueblo County, along with its projected population by age, implies a fairly steady fore- casted fertility rate for women ages 15 to 49 of 48.4 births per 1,000 in 2020, and 50.4 in 2029. There has recently been much argument amongst demographers about whether or not the national decline in fertility rates over the past decade is a perma- nent trend, and it appears that the State Demography Office forecasts that it shall be 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pueblo County 980 980 1,027 1,032 979 982 968 1,009 1,032 993 997 State of Colorado 634 639 650 651 619 640 625 624 639 627 625 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo County 1,010 1,024 970 1,063 1,044 1,039 - State of Colorado 636 638 639 659 666 676 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pueblo County ---67.59 67.41 66.64 73.35 73.24 72.07 70.04 65.74 State of Colorado ---69.82 69.19 69.47 70.82 70.37 69.05 67.16 64.67 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo County 62.15 64.56 61.85 64.58 59.13 61.30 57.62 State of Colorado 62.58 62.01 60.96 60.66 60.13 59.27 56.56 Total Mortality Rate (Annual Deaths per 100,000) Fertility Rate, Women Age 15 to 49 (Annual Births per 1,000) Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Vital Statistics: Natality Public-Use Data 2007-2017, and Multiple Cause of Death Files 1999-2017; from Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research (WONDER). Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 36 for Pueblo County. Some argue that this drop in fertility rates nationally has been re- lated to the Great Recession and other economic trends, like rising child care costs and greater student loan debt. Others argue, with a lot of statistical merit, that a large por- tion of the falling fertility rates nationally has been due to more intrinsic trends, like in- creasing education rates and lower pay gaps for women, falling religious affiliation, as well as significant drops in Hispanic fertility rates that historically were higher than av- erage. The table above summarizes the estimated fertility rate for women age 15 to 49 in Pueblo West CDP according to the American Community Survey, along with the re- ported margin of error for those estimates. Although the margins of error are too high to establish a clear upward or downward trend over time since 2007, the fertility rate for Pueblo West is clearly lower than that of both Pueblo County and of Colorado as a whole. Population mortality data is pretty much unavailable for Pueblo West, although its overall mortality rate is probably lower than the rate countywide because of its lower proportion of people 75 years old and older. Therefore, the recent rate of popu- lation growth from births net of deaths has also probably been rather minimal in Pueblo West, and will likely remain so over the next 10 years. The lowest geographic subdivision for the U.S. Census Bureau’s net migration data is the county level, and its data provides for a rather complete accounting of total known population migration as it is based on income tax data from the IRS, Medicare enroll- ment, immigration records, military movements, and ongoing survey data. Below the county level, though, the ACS provides data about people who have moved to a partic- ular locality within the past year, but not about the people who have moved away from that locality. There are clues about net migration trends in Pueblo West by exam- ining the ACS in-migration totals to Pueblo West CDP, presented in the following table, although this data is still only half of the picture. It is also important to examine these in-migration totals for Pueblo West in conjunction with those for the City of Pueblo, as population changes in the two communities are very much interrelated. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fertility Rate -43 30 29 30 38 38 48 45 29 27 +/- Margin -24 18 16 15 18 19 20 17 11 13 Pueblo West CDP - Estimated Fertility Rate, Women Age 15 to 49 (Annual Births per 1,000), ACS Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 37 Whereas in 2007 over 28% of Pueblo West CDP’s in-movers were from people out-of- state versus about 13% for Pueblo County, the out-of-state portion of in-movers for Pueblo West CDP has dropped significantly to about 13% in 2017, which was just below the rate for Pueblo County. The proportion of in-movers from other counties in Colo- rado was about the same for Pueblo West CDP in 2017 as it was in 2007, at about 22%, although that proportion had dropped a bit to 16% in 2013. But the majority of in- movers to Pueblo West CDP came from those already living in Pueblo County, account- ing for about 63% of total movers in 2017, including those moving from one home in Pueblo West to another. The table below shows the number of Pueblo West CDP in- movers from Pueblo County who moved from one home in Pueblo West to another, versus those who moved from somewhere else in Pueblo County to Pueblo West. In- deed, 56% of those intra-county in-movers in Pueblo West CDP came from elsewhere in Pueblo County in 2017, although the number of people moving from one home to another within Pueblo West has been increasing over the past two decades. In con- trast, the vast majority of intra-county in-movers in the City of Pueblo move from one home to another within the City. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Moved from Within Same County in Past 12 Months Pueblo West CDP 1,812 2,407 2,016 2,559 2,053 2,232 2,284 2,650 2,312 2,595 2,558 Pueblo City 14,288 13,754 13,131 13,505 14,569 15,226 16,583 16,333 14,765 15,581 14,448 Pueblo County 17,821 18,196 16,675 17,616 18,445 19,444 20,532 20,651 18,784 19,750 18,688 Moved from Different County, Same State, in Past 12 Months Pueblo West CDP 929 1,034 1,088 793 1,006 770 618 696 668 724 882 Pueblo City 3,188 3,890 3,924 3,721 3,769 3,623 2,858 2,795 3,242 3,121 3,444 Pueblo County 4,726 5,448 5,486 4,871 5,100 4,637 3,734 3,902 4,472 4,391 4,881 Moved from Different State in Past 12 Months Pueblo West CDP 1,143 752 1,362 845 610 757 822 552 617 565 547 Pueblo City 2,084 2,264 1,894 1,905 1,953 2,354 2,281 2,674 2,704 2,970 3,094 Pueblo County 3,584 3,205 3,564 3,102 2,939 3,481 3,497 3,593 3,726 3,889 4,011 Moved from Abroad in Past 12 Months Pueblo West CDP 167 154 159 153 48 174 209 33 66 87 91 Pueblo City 428 344 302 261 141 196 263 97 64 241 266 Pueblo County 748 513 561 457 420 413 510 449 375 387 411 Number of People Who Moved to Current Residence Within the Past 12 Months Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010- 2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 38 In addition to totaling the intra-county in-movers for the City of Pueblo, the table above also shows the total number of in-movers from one city/town to another within Pueblo County for each of its Census county subdivisions (CCD’s). Several interviewees observed, at least anecdotally, a trend of more people moving from Pueblo West to the City of Pueblo over the past several years during the Great Recession. The table above seems to confirm this trend, as the total number of in-movers from another city/town dropped for Pueblo West from 2011 to 2015, while it also increased for the City of Pueblo from 2009 and after. At least some portion of that increase in intra- county migration to the City of Pueblo was likely attributable to people moving out of Pueblo West. This increase in intra-county migration for the City of Pueblo also tracks with the City’s increase in share of total County residential units permitted from 2012 to 2015. Conversely, Pueblo West experienced significant population growth in rela- tion to Pueblo County from 1995 to 2009, as Pueblo West CDP’s number of intra- county in-movers from different cities/towns was notably greater than that for the City of Pueblo. It appears that migration from the City of Pueblo has historically been ma- jor driver of population growth in Pueblo West, perhaps as important as migration from other counties and states. Furthermore, it does appear that migration from Pueblo West to the City of Pueblo – or at least a larger number of movers favoring the City of Pueblo over Pueblo West – played a role in Pueblo West’s stagnant population growth from 2011 to 2016. Past 5 Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2000 Pueblo West CDP 1,412 1,445 1,300 1,493 1,013 880 1,196 1,072 1,133 1,452 1,437 5,003 Pueblo City 1,128 1,148 1,232 1,563 1,976 1,917 2,205 2,570 2,179 2,257 1,939 2,487 Avondale CCD --70 74 78 88 93 85 106 103 254 481 Colorado City-Rye CCD --400 534 472 453 177 182 59 49 42 869 Huerfano Valley CCD --31 35 52 31 46 46 45 44 13 276 Pueblo West CCD --1,312 1,493 1,013 880 1,196 1,072 1,133 1,452 1,437 5,068 Pueblo CCD --1,753 1,980 2,443 2,506 2,694 2,969 2,625 2,823 2,574 3,740 St. Charles Mesa CCD --439 463 702 746 773 864 960 748 712 1,803 Northeast Pueblo CCD --31 19 44 40 48 56 52 19 19 153 Past 5 Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2000 Pueblo West CDP 400 962 716 1,066 1,040 1,352 1,088 1,578 1,179 1,143 1,121 691 Pueblo City 13,160 12,606 11,899 11,942 12,593 13,309 14,378 13,763 12,586 13,324 12,509 26,594 Pueblo County 13,588 13,591 12,639 13,018 13,641 14,700 15,505 15,377 13,804 14,512 13,637 27,513 Moved from a Different City/Town in Pueblo County in Past 1 Year Internal Migration Within Pueblo County Moved Within the Same City/Town in Past 1 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 39 Ultimately, Pueblo West’s population growth will largely depend upon how many peo- ple choose to move and live there versus how many people choose to move away from there and live elsewhere. The same fundamental push and pull factors which drive large-scale migrations will also underpin the magnitude of net migration to and from Pueblo West: the pursuit of safety and stability, economic and educational opportuni- ties, family, friends and culture, and a good quality of life. The following sections largely discuss the key push and pull factors identified through interviews, as well as through reviewing available empirical data. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 40 Economic and Demographic Factors Jobs, Employment, and Wage Growth The State Demography Office’s population and net migration forecasts are essentially based on a forecast of job growth. Indeed, their basic methodology is to start with an economic forecast for Colorado, translate that forecast into labor supply and labor de- mand models, align the supply and demand models to estimate migration, and then re- peat and refine the process for every region and county in Colorado. In other words, job growth usually leads to new net migration so long as there are people willing and able to move and fill those jobs. The jump in the State Demography Office’s forecasted in-migration for Pueblo County from 2021 to 2022 is most likely the result of their jobs forecast model switching from a more refined, shorter-term, 4- or 5-year projection to a longer-term trend projection. The following two graphs show the annual percent change in total private and govern- ment employment for Pueblo County and for Colorado, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), from 1998 to 2017, along with a 2018 estimate based on data from the first three quarters. QCEW employment totals encompass all jobs covered by federal and state unemployment in- surance programs, or about 95% of all jobs nationally, according to the QCEW. Exam- ples of non-covered employees are some farmworkers, certain national security em- ployees, railroad workers, and unincorporated self-employed workers. 3.5% 1.4%0.8% -0.9%-1.2%-0.5%-0.6% 0.9%2.6%3.0% 0.8% -2.7% 0.0%1.5% -0.1% 0.2%1.7%1.8%2.2%1.5%0.8% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Pueblo County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 41 Compared to Colorado statewide, Pueblo County’s job growth has tended to be lower during years of growth, but with some prolonged periods of stagnation. While job loss in 2009 and 2010 was more acute statewide, Pueblo County’s rate of job growth re- mained close to 0% until 2014, whereas job growth began to recover statewide in 2011. Pueblo County also experienced minimal to negative job growth from 2000 to 2005, during a period of historically high residential construction and population growth in Pueblo County and Pueblo West, while Colorado experienced a shorter downturn from 2001 to 2004. Figure 3 in the Appendix includes QCEW employment growth graphs for the other Front Range and Southern Colorado counties. While there are some Front Range counties to the north which have been undergoing exceptional job growth since 2011 – and have experienced correspondingly strong residential con- struction and growth – there are also some counties, like Arapahoe and Boulder, with job growth rates only just a bit higher than Pueblo County’s in the past few years. The following two graphs, also from the QCEW, show the average annual pay for all private and government jobs in Pueblo County and Colorado statewide from 1990 to a 2018 estimate, in dollars both unadjusted and adjusted to inflation using the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) in the West. Figure 4 in the Appendix in- cludes these average pay graphs for the other counties. Job growth does not always entail wage growth, although wage growth often portends stronger job growth as peo- 4.2%3.9%4.0% 0.7% -2.2%-1.7% 1.2%2.2%2.4%2.3%0.8% -4.7% -1.1% 1.7%2.4%3.1%3.5%3.2%2.3%2.2%2.8% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. State of Colorado -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 42 ple have more money to spend in a local economy, thus supporting indirect and in- duced jobs. Wage growth can also help translate job demand into population growth, as people seek jobs with better pay. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Pueblo County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), State of Colorado -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 43 A positive indicator for Pueblo County has been a slight upward trend in average an- nual pay adjusted for inflation since 2007, although it was projected to have dropped noticeably by the end of 2018. Fremont and El Paso Counties have actually experi- enced stagnant and slightly decreasing average annual pay adjusted for inflation since 2007, while Pueblo County’s rate of wage growth adjusted for inflation has generally matched that of Colorado statewide since then. The following table summarizes the annual estimated unemployment rate for Pueblo West CDP, Pueblo County, the City of Pueblo, and Colorado from 2007 to 2017, accord- ing to the ACS. Note that the ACS unemployment estimates are a different dataset than the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which come from a more detailed survey with different definitions. The CPS reports the federal government’s official monthly unemployment rates, but ACS estimates are available for localities like Pueblo West and allow for a comparison of trends over time for those smaller areas. The unemployment rate in Pueblo West rose from 2009 to a peak in 2014, whereas the unemployment rate peaked in Pueblo County, the City of Pueblo, and statewide in 2013. Whereas Pueblo West’s unemployment rate was lower than Colorado’s in 2007, it was higher than Colorado’s in 2017, and about 1.5% higher than its pre-Recession rate. Similarly, the City of Pueblo’s and Pueblo County’s unemployment rates were also about 1.5% higher in 2017 than in 2007. The rise in unemployment throughout Pueblo County does not appear to have been due to an increase in labor force partici- pation. In fact, Pueblo County’s overall labor force participation rate has dropped slightly but consistently, from 60.8% of the population 16 years and older in 2007 to 56.3% in 2017. There was, though, very minimal job growth in Pueblo County from 2010 to 2014, while the County’s population grew by about 4,500, according to the State Demography Office’s estimates. Also, the rise in unemployment was likely at- tributable to all of Pueblo County’s neighboring Southern Colorado counties – Fremont, Custer, Huerfano, Otero, Crowley, and also Las Animas – experiencing signifi- cant negative job growth nearly every year from 2009 to 2014 and, in some cases, up 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo West CDP 5.1%5.9%5.3%6.3%6.8%7.2%7.7%8.7%8.0%7.0%6.6% Pueblo City 9.1%7.9%10.8%11.1%11.8%12.7%13.2%12.5%12.2%10.8%10.3% Pueblo County 7.8%7.0%9.0%9.6%10.2%10.9%11.6%11.1%10.8%9.7%9.3% Colorado 5.8%5.3%6.2%6.8%7.6%8.0%8.5%7.9%6.9%6.0%5.2% Annual Unemployment Rate - ACS Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010- 2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 44 to 2017. There were fewer employment opportunities for Pueblo County and Pueblo West residents in those other counties, and likely more people from those counties seeking and competing for jobs in the Pueblo County market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), for which CPS data is a key input, Pueblo County’s monthly unemployment rate in January 2019 was 6.3%, versus 5.1% in January 2018, 4.7% in January 2017, 5.5% in January 2016, and 6.9% in January 2015. The jump in Pueblo County’s unemployment rate during the winter of 2018/2019 was sizeable and notable. On the other hand, Pueblo County’s monthly unemployment rate in May 2018, at 3.5%, was the lowest monthly unemployment rate since October 2000. ACS and LAUS unemployment rates have different definitions in their methodology, and should not be directly compared. Overall, job and employment growth in Pueblo County seem to have risen to moder- ately positive levels since 2014, following several tough years of stagnant job growth and rising unemployment after the crash in 2009. Wage growth and falling unemploy- ment are particularly positive indicators, but the rate of job growth is moderate at best. Continued job, employment, and wage growth at moderate levels over the fol- lowing three years seem to be the most reasonable projection for Pueblo County, bar- ring downturns in any of those metrics in 2019. It also seems reasonable to project that the Pueblo County economy is on track to a “recovered” pre-Great Recession level in the following few years, though whether that happens in 2021, 2022, 2023, or even later is more a matter of guesswork than science. Foreclosures A common view of many interviewees was that the subprime lending bubble and sub- sequent home foreclosure crisis, which played central roles in the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and subsequent Great Recession, hit Pueblo County – and Pueblo West – particularly hard. Indeed, this has been expressed by many others, and is commonly cited as a reason for the Pueblo County region’s prolonged recession. Interestingly, though, the data on foreclosures seems to indicate that the foreclosure crisis was no worse in Pueblo County than it was elsewhere in Colorado and the Front Range. The following table shows the annual foreclosure filing rate for Pueblo County from 2005 to 2017, as well as for its neighboring Southern Colorado counties, and for the other Front Range counties to its north. These figures reflect foreclosure filings as reported by their County Public Trustees to the Colorado Division of Housing and the Public Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 45 Trustee Association of Colorado, calculated with housing unit estimates from the State Demography Office. Pueblo County’s foreclosure filing rate was already quite high in 2005 and 2006, before the financial crisis and a foreclosure rate peak in 2009. This was perhaps indicative of a particular subprime lending bubble in Pueblo County. It also suggests that the rate of residential construction in Pueblo County during, at least, the couple of years preced- ing the Great Recession was above an economically healthy level. Pueblo County’s peak foreclosure rate in 2009, at 2.27%, was actually no higher than the highest annual foreclosure rate of many Front Range counties to its north, and notably lower than some counties, including Weld, Adams, Arapahoe, and Denver. In contrast with those other Front Range counties, though, Pueblo County’s foreclosure rate stayed elevated for longer and was still notably higher in 2017. The foreclosure rate in the counties to the north began to fall sooner, and may have recently been somewhat artificially low, due to the dramatic rise in housing values in those markets. But there is really no eco- nomic desirability whatsoever for any number of foreclosures, and Pueblo County’s foreclosure rate has been an outlier since about 2012. This slower decline has been a function of stagnant housing values in Pueblo County, as discussed in the next section. It is also probably a sign of the post-Recession economic recovery and growth in Pueblo County having been more tenuous. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo 1.57%1.75%2.21%1.91%2.27%1.99%1.81%1.69%1.19%0.94%0.73%0.71%0.58% Las Animas -0.77%0.64%0.86%1.27%1.54%1.32%1.21%1.03%0.75%0.75%0.61%0.56% Huerfano --0.46%1.03%1.09%0.89%0.70%1.01%0.62%0.52%0.62%0.52%0.34% Otero -1.40%1.39%1.06%1.06%1.34%1.04%0.97%0.59%0.60%0.41%0.42%0.45% Crowley 1.79%1.41%0.45%1.28%1.02%0.77%0.83%0.96%1.15%0.57%0.63%0.63%0.51% Custer 0.55%0.59%0.73%0.45%0.67%0.86%0.87%0.78%0.26%0.38%0.38%0.30%0.16% Fremont --1.64%1.56%1.89%1.81%1.54%1.52%1.03%0.90%0.67%0.56%0.47% El Paso 0.96%1.05%1.43%1.84%2.17%1.91%1.42%1.31%0.72%0.70%0.56%0.48%0.40% Douglas 0.98%1.28%1.83%2.09%2.52%2.24%1.63%1.48%0.69%0.38%0.27%0.26%0.21% Jefferson 0.94%1.31%1.58%1.60%1.75%1.67%1.19%1.14%0.56%0.42%0.26%0.22%0.20% Arapahoe 1.62%2.09%2.72%2.52%2.64%2.31%1.65%1.49%0.70%0.54%0.35%0.29%0.28% Adams 2.13%2.74%3.89%3.43%3.47%3.00%2.17%1.93%0.99%0.72%0.45%0.42%0.38% Denver 1.36%1.87%2.82%2.21%2.17%1.76%1.19%1.06%0.55%0.36%0.23%0.23%0.20% Boulder 0.50%0.64%0.81%0.83%1.13%1.06%0.75%0.61%0.30%0.19%0.17%0.13%0.13% Broomfield 0.66%0.99%1.19%1.27%1.51%1.30%0.94%0.92%0.48%0.25%0.14%0.13%0.16% Larimer 0.79%0.99%1.23%1.26%1.58%1.37%0.99%0.79%0.40%0.24%0.21%0.18%0.16% Weld 1.69%2.25%3.04%2.95%3.49%2.86%1.97%1.60%0.82%0.59%0.41%0.38%0.33% Source: Colorado State Demography Office; Colorado Division of Housing; Public Trustee Association of Colorado. Foreclosure Rate by County (Annual Foreclosure Filings as a Percent of Total Housing Units) Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 46 Several interviewees indicated that Pueblo West attracts many homebuyers who are unable to qualify for a mortgage in other Front Range markets, particularly from El Paso County. In fact, those interviewees indicated that such homebuyers have been an important component of Pueblo West’s population growth in the past several years. The slightly higher foreclosure rate may actually indicate that Pueblo-market lenders are approving mortgages for slightly riskier buyers as compared to elsewhere in the Front Range. So long as lenders remain risk-averse in other Front Range markets with strong residential markets, and if Pueblo County’s foreclosure rate does not start ris- ing, then Pueblo West should continue to experience that source of population growth. But it also indicates that Pueblo West may be more sensitive to future economic down- turns, with out-migration being a possible risk. Home Values and Rents As Pueblo West is very much a community of single-family homes, the home-buying market is a critical element of its population growth. Many interviewees noted that home values in Pueblo West and throughout Pueblo County, which have tended to be significantly lower than other Front Range counties to the north, have had conflicting effects on Pueblo West’s population growth. An important trend noted are homeown- ers from other Front Range counties with rising housing prices buying a less expensive, but similarly desirable, home in Pueblo West, thus making a potentially substantial profit after selling their previous home. On the other hand, homebuilders reported that because home prices have barely risen in Pueblo West for at least a decade, their profit margins are becoming critically squeezed because of rising construction costs and a tighter construction labor market throughout Colorado. As a result, there is par- ticular homogeneity in the price and type of homes being built in Pueblo West, which has likely limited Pueblo West’s appeal to various types of homebuyers. Several inter- viewees noted a popular perception that Pueblo West’s homes held their value during the Great Recession, as compared to homes in the City of Pueblo, which has made Pueblo West appealing to many homebuyers. Some interviewees also noted that the City of Pueblo has likewise become increasingly attractive in comparison to Pueblo West because of a perception that homes in the City of Pueblo are a bargain. The following graphs show the median, upper quartile, and lower quartile home values adjusted for inflation in Pueblo West CDP, the City of Pueblo, Pueblo County, and Colo- rado statewide in 2000 according to the Census, and from 2007 to 2017 according to the ACS. These values were adjusted to inflation using the CPI-U in the West. Figure 5 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 47 in the Appendix also contains the median, upper quartile, and lower quartile home val- ues unadjusted for inflation, as well as those home values unadjusted and adjusted for inflation in the other Front Range and Southern Colorado counties. Adjusted for inflation, Pueblo West CDP’s median, upper quartile, and lower quartile home values have actually decreased from 2007 to 2017, after experi- encing an increase from 2000 to 2007, particularly for its upper quartile value. There did appear to be a slight increase in Pueblo West home values from 2016 to 2017, and it will be important to see if that con- tinued in 2018. The upper quartile home value in the City of Pueblo has been con- sistently just under the me- dian home value in Pueblo West CDP. So while it is per- haps not accurate to say that Pueblo West homes held their value better throughout the Great Reces- sion, many homes in the City of Pueblo market prob- ably are more of a “bargain” in comparison to Pueblo West, at least purely in terms of price. In contrast to Pueblo West, $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006- 2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. $ 2018 Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Pueblo West CDP -Adjusted for Inflation Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006- 2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. $ 2018 Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Pueblo City -Adjusted for Inflation Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 48 every Front Range county to the north except El Paso has experienced home value in- creases since 2014 at a rate similar or higher than the in- creases statewide. El Paso County has also experienced home value increases since 2014, albeit at a rate a bit under Colorado’s but higher than Pueblo County’s. Pueblo West CDP’s median home value in 2017 was also significantly lower than every Front Range county to the north, with El Paso County’s median value the closest at $238,200, versus Pueblo West CDP’s $188,400. The compara- tively narrow range of home values in Pueblo West also reduces the possible supply of in-migration, and it also reduces the retention po- tential of current residents who may be looking for a different type of housing. Some interviewees noted that there appears to be a clear market in Pueblo West for homebuyers looking for smaller homes without much property maintenance, as well as for multifamily living. But in the past several years, according to some of the builders interviewed, a combination of higher construction costs, stagnant housing prices, and fixed costs for permits/fees and land have rendered townhomes, duplexes, and smaller single-family homes uneconomical to build in Pueblo West. $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006- 2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. $ 2018 Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Pueblo County -Adjusted for Inflation Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006- 2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. $ 2018 Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units State of Colorado -Adjusted for Inflation Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 49 The development economics and cash flow potential for multifamily projects also ap- pear to be prohibitively challenging in Pueblo West, according to some interviewees. Some believed that rents have been too stagnant and low in the Pueblo County mar- ket, and that overall there is insufficient demand, to support multifamily development in Pueblo West, at least currently. Indeed, the last apartment development to occur in Pueblo West were 24 units in 2001. Nonetheless, some other interviewees believed that Pueblo West is primed for multifamily development growth in the upcoming years, particularly in light of apparent demand trends in the Front Range market away from traditional single-family housing and towards multifamily rentals. For example, many people are eschewing homeownership as “lifelong jobs” become less prevalent. Sectors where job growth has been concentrated since the Great Recession, like retail and other services, have not been conducive towards building household equity and homeownership. Older people are looking to downsize, and millennials are preferring “city” living to traditional suburban living. Is the relative lack of multifamily housing and rental options limiting Pueblo West’s population growth? The graph above summarizes the multifamily apartment vacancy rate for the Pueblo market since 2007, as compared to the Colorado Springs and Metro Denver markets, according to the quarterly Colorado Multi-Family Vacancy & Rental Survey prepared by 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Vacancy RateMultifamily Apartment Vacancy Rate Pueblo - Market Colorado Springs - Market Metro Denver Sources: Ron Throupe and Jennifer van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2012 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing, Apartment Realty Advisors, and Pierce-Eislen; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing and Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily; Throupe and van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2014 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Apartment Realty Advisors, Colorado Housing and Finance Authority, Colorado Division of Housing, Multifamily Capital Advisors, Pierce-Eislen, and Denver Housing Authority; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily, Colorado Division of Housing, and Denver Housing Authority. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 50 Ron Throupe, of the University of Denver’s Daniels School of Management, and Jen- nifer Van Stroh, of Colorado Economic and Management Associates. Their data is based on longstanding surveys of apartment complexes in these markets. The Pueblo market defined in this data appears mostly confined to the City of Pueblo, although that is a function of almost all apartment complexes in the Pueblo market being lo- cated within the City of Pueblo. Since the beginning of 2016, the apartment vacancy rate in the Pueblo market has been between about 2% and 4%, which is very low and lower than other urban Front Range markets. Apartment vacancy rates below about 5% are sometimes considered somewhat economically unhealthy in an urban market, as it means that it can take too long for those searching for an apartment – some of whom are in immediate need of housing – to find one. But as recently as 2012 and 2013, the apartment vacancy rate in the Pueblo market was above 15%, which is very high. Spikes in vacancy in the Pueblo market in 2009 and 2011 corresponded with the opening of newly constructed apartment complexes in the City of Pueblo, and it ap- pears that it has typically taken about 18 months for the Pueblo market to absorb the units of new apartment projects. Apartment projects in the City of Pueblo were also constructed in 2015 and 2017, totaling 152 units, without the spikes in vacancy, indi- cating higher demand for multifamily rentals. $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Vacancy RateMedian Multifamily Apartment Monthly Rent Pueblo - Market Colorado Springs - Market Metro Denver Sources: Ron Throupe and Jennifer van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2012 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing, Apartment Realty Advisors, and Pierce-Eislen; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing and Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily; Throupe and van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2014 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Apartment Realty Advisors, Colorado Housing and Finance Authority, Colorado Division of Housing, Multifamily Capital Advisors, Pierce-Eislen, and Denver Housing Authority; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily, Colorado Division of Housing, and Denver Housing Authority. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 51 The graph above summarizes the median apartment rent in the Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Metro Denver markets, according to the quarterly Colorado Multi-Family Vacancy & Rental Survey. Tables of apartment vacancy rates and rents for some other Colorado markets are also in Figure 6 of the Appendix. Not surprisingly, apartment rents in the Pueblo market are significantly lower than rents in other Front Range mar- kets to its north, though it is remarkable that, as of the third quarter of 2018, the me- dian rent in the Pueblo market was only 51% of the median rent in Metro Denver. Whereas median rents in Colorado Springs and Metro Denver began climbing at a higher rate at the start of 2014, the rate of quarterly median rent increases in the Pueblo market only started to tick a bit higher at the beginning of 2017. This is per- haps another indicator of Pueblo County’s delayed recovery from the Great Recession as compared to elsewhere in the Front Range. Some of those interviewed stated that stagnant and comparatively low rents in the Pueblo market have rendered multifamily development too risky for all but large national developers. They also noted an expec- tation from today’s multifamily rental market for luxury finishes and amenities, which adds to the cost of development. Therefore, it seems reasonable to project, at most, very limited multifamily growth potential in Pueblo West in the next few years. As shown in the table to the right, though, the lack of multifamily growth potential may not be much of an opportunity loss for Pueblo West’s population growth. Pueblo West CDP has had a fairly consistent proportion of renter-occu- pied housing units since 1990, and its propor- tion of renter-occupied units has remained sig- nificantly lower than in the City of Pueblo and throughout Colorado. Interestingly, the proportion of renter-occupied units has also remained fairly constant statewide, and actually decreased from 1990 to 2017 throughout Colorado. The growth in renter-occupied housing seems to be largely an urban phenomena in Colorado, concentrated in larger cities like Pueblo. Therefore, significantly downgrading Pueblo West’s projected population growth due to its rela- tive lack of multifamily and rental housing options does not seem justified. 2017 2010 2000 1990 Pueblo West CDP 19.4%18.2%16.8%20.6% City of Pueblo 45.3%36.2%34.4%35.0% Pueblo County 36.8%29.8%29.4%31.5% Colorado 35.3%34.5%32.7%37.8% Renter-Occupied Units, as a Percent of Total Occupied Housing Units Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census; American Community Survey, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 52 Commuters Some have coined Pueblo West a “bedroom community,” meaning that the people who live there commute to other places for work. There is a lot of truth to that, as 45.7% of all jobs held by Pueblo West CDP residents were located in the City of Pueblo in 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dy- namics (LEHD) Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data. In contrast, only 9.9% of all jobs held by Pueblo West CDP residents were also located in Pueblo West in 2015, which was just slightly higher than the 8.8% of all Pueblo West resident jobs located in Colorado Springs. Being a bedroom community therefore means that population growth in Pueblo West is very much dependent upon jobs and economic growth in neighboring communities and counties. The following table shows the pro- portion of all jobs held by Pueblo West CDP residents by the location of that job, from 2002 to 2015, according to LODES. The majority of Pueblo West residents have worked in Pueblo County, though that pro- portion has been noticeably dropping from 74.2% in 2002 to 68.3% in 2015. It appears that the major drop in the proportion of Pueblo West residents working in Pueblo County occurred in 2007, and then continued to drop during the Great Recession through 2013. A bit of this drop seems to be accounted for by some slight increases in the proportion of jobs located in El Paso County, with about one out of ten workers liv- ing in Pueblo West working in El Paso County. The proportion of jobs located in Fremont County, though increasing a bit in 2010 and 2011, has been surprisingly low. The state and federal prison facilities in Fremont County may not be as large of em- ployers for Pueblo West residents as anecdotally believed. Likewise, a very low pro- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Pueblo County 74.2%75.4%76.5%75.2%75.3%71.3%71.6%72.7%70.5%68.3%68.6%67.0%67.3%68.3% El Paso County 9.6%10.0%10.1%9.8%10.2%12.0%10.6%10.2%9.5%10.7%11.3%11.3%10.5%10.6% Fremont County 2.5%2.2%2.1%2.7%2.7%2.8%3.3%2.5%4.6%4.6%3.6%3.9%3.4%2.8% Metro Denver / Northern Colo.*10.3%8.6%7.6%9.3%8.5%10.0%10.4%11.4%11.5%13.3%13.0%14.0%13.8%13.1% Otero & Crowley Counties 0.5%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.4%0.6%0.7%0.9%0.7%0.8% Southern Colo.**0.3%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.6%0.6% Elsewhere in Colorado 2.2%2.6%2.2%1.5%1.7%2.1%2.4%1.8%2.0%1.9%2.0%2.4%2.4%2.7% Outside Colorado 0.4%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.4%0.9%0.1%0.1%0.1%1.3%1.1% **Custer, Huerfano, and Las Animas Counties. *Douglas, Denver, Jefferson, Arapahoe, Adams, Boulder, Broomfield, Larimer, and Weld Counties. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES), Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2015. Destination of Work, Proportion of All Jobs by Residents of Pueblo West CDP Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 53 portion of Pueblo West residents worked in Otero, Crowley, and other Southern Colo- rado counties. The most notable increase in the location of Pueblo West residents’ jobs has been Metro Denver and Northern Colorado, accounting for most of the de- crease in the proportion working in Pueblo County. From 2009 to 2015, more Pueblo West residents worked jobs located in Metro Denver and Northern Colorado than jobs located in El Paso County. This increase in the number of Pueblo West residents working jobs located in Metro Denver and Northern Colorado seems consistent with the noted trend of people from those counties with rising property values moving to take advantage of Pueblo West’s relatively low home prices. For example, some may be moving and commuting tempo- rarily with the hope of finding a comparable job closer to Pueblo West. Others may be commuting that far for better pay or job availability. In either case, Pueblo West’s re- tention of those residents may depend upon job growth in Pueblo County so that they might eventually find a competitively desirable job closer to home. But, there may even be economic development opportunities with any in-migration of skilled workers living in Pueblo West. Part of Pueblo West’s desirability to commuters is that Interstate 25 is relatively un- congested from the Purcell Boulevard interchange to the south end of metropolitan El Paso County, at least compared to other major commuter roadways in the Front Range. There is also a reasonable alternative route to the north – which commuters in other communities might consider a luxury – via U.S. Highway 50 west to Penrose, and then State Highway 115 north past Fort Carson to Colorado Springs. A possible limita- tion on future growth in Pueblo West would therefore be increased traffic congestion on those routes. The table below shows average daily traffic counts in June over the past decade for the section of I-25 between Wigwam, close to the El Paso / Pueblo County border, and Pikes Peak International Raceway (PPIR), as well as for Highway 50 between Pueblo West and Penrose, and Highway 115 between Penrose and Fort Carson Gate 7. June traffic counts are also included for the section of I-25 between Larkspur and Castle Rock – which many consider very congested – in order to provide a comparative basis for traffic counts on I-25 north of Pueblo West. June and July are typically the highest traffic months of the year. Also, projected average annual traffic counts for all of those highway sections are included for the upcoming decade. All of these counts were measured and projected by the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT). Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 54 As a broad rule of thumb, according to the Transportation Research Board’s Highway Capacity Manual, 6th Edition, the threshold of congestion for a 4-lane freeway typically ranges between 46,300 and 107,400 vehicles per day. So by 2029, with a projected an- nual average daily traffic count of 49,530, I-25 north of Pueblo West will probably be somewhat congested at times but not in a state of gridlock. Traffic on Highway 50 west of Pueblo West is not projected to grow to a congested state, with the Transpor- tation Research Board suggesting the threshold of congestion for a 4-lane undivided street is typically between 18,600 and 36,800 vehicles per day. Finally, traffic on High- way 115 is projected to grow fairly minimally. Therefore, Pueblo West will likely con- tinue to appeal to longer-distance commuters over the next 10 years, with its main drawback being sheer distance from other job hubs outside of Pueblo County. Children and School Districts All interviewees noted that its public schools are a major motivating factor for many of the people who move to Pueblo West. Pueblo West is located within Pueblo County School District 70, which encompasses nearly all of Pueblo County, except for a few ru- ral areas along the County’s far eastern border and the City of Pueblo. Pueblo City Schools, previously and interchangeably known as School District 60, covers the City of Pueblo. D-60 schools have faced some very difficult and deep-rooted socioeconomic, academic, and capital facilities challenges in recent decades. It is apparent that many people in Pueblo County perceive a stark contrast between D-60 and D-70 schools. For 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 I-25: Wigwam to PPIR 33,513 34,751 35,774 33,941 33,405 31,715 35,722 38,621 41,165 42,880 43,577 I-25: Larkspur to Castle Rock 59,787 -66,693 66,663 68,262 70,064 75,866 79,723 84,698 85,522 86,134 Hwy 50: Pueblo West to Penrose 8,677 9,366 8,647 8,873 8,834 8,539 8,899 9,668 10,100 10,497 10,756 Hwy 115: Penrose to Ft. Carson Gate 7 8,347 8,616 8,796 8,432 ---9,286 9,790 10,247 10,566 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 I-25: Wigwam to PPIR 40,755 41,633 42,510 43,388 44,265 45,143 46,020 46,898 47,775 48,653 49,530 I-25: Larkspur to Castle Rock 82,056 84,084 86,112 88,140 90,168 92,196 94,224 96,252 98,280 100,308 102,336 Hwy 50: Pueblo West to Penrose 10,065 10,197 10,329 10,462 10,594 10,726 10,858 10,991 11,123 11,255 11,388 Hwy 115: Penrose to Ft. Carson Gate 7 9,162 9,243 9,324 9,405 9,486 9,567 9,648 9,729 9,810 9,891 9,972 Source: Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) Online Transportation Information System (OTIS). Projected Average Daily Traffic Counts, Annual Average - CDOT Average Daily Traffic Counts Measured in June - CDOT Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 55 example, Pueblo West High School, which opened in 1997, has a large modern campus with complete, tournament-quality athletic facilities and an International Baccalaure- ate Programme. In contrast, the four current D-60 high school campuses opened in 1906, 1959, 1959, and 1975. A plausible factor driving Pueblo West’s population growth in recent decades seems to be families with children moving from D-60 to D-70 school district boundaries. Like- wise, Pueblo West’s schools should help it compete for families moving into Pueblo County. It is therefore somewhat surprising that the proportion of households in Pueblo West with one or more people under the age of 18 has decreased since 2000 at a rate significantly higher than in the City of Pueblo and statewide, as shown in the ta- ble below from ACS and Census data. Figure 7 in the Appendix shows the number and proportion of households with one or more people under the age of 18 in the other Front Range and Southern Colorado counties. Some interviewees noted that Colorado’s open enrollment law, which allows non-resi- dent pupils to apply for enrollment in another school district free of tuition, means that D-70 schools are not necessarily a critical deciding factor inducing families to move to Pueblo West. Open enrollment into D-70 was noted as a factor enabling out-migration from Pueblo West to the City of Pueblo for families seeking lower-cost or other types of housing. It is very likely, though, that Pueblo West’s population growth during the 1990’s was prominently driven by families seeking D-70 schools, as Colorado’s open enrollment began in 1994-1995, and Pueblo West’s first elementary and middle schools had opened in 1974 and 1984, respectively. It is still important to note that Pueblo West had a higher proportion of households with children in 2017, at 34.9%, than the City of Pueblo, at 30.1%, and Colorado 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # HH's 2,663 3,471 3,538 3,838 3,658 4,057 3,966 4,073 4,131 3,990 4,080 3,932 % All HH's 44.5%40.2%38.0%38.4%35.7%39.4%37.3%38.0%38.1%36.5%36.7%34.9% # HH's 13,540 13,432 13,797 12,892 13,282 13,144 12,866 12,872 13,081 13,141 12,717 13,069 % All HH's 33.6%32.4%33.0%31.6%31.3%30.5%30.0%29.8%30.2%30.4%29.5%30.1% # HH's 19,227 20,013 20,353 19,722 19,634 19,831 19,382 19,476 19,556 19,577 19,257 19,498 % All HH's 35.2%34.0%34.1%33.0%32.0%32.1%31.2%31.2%31.1%31.1%30.6%30.7% # HH's 585,387 623,413 628,776 623,912 636,420 638,175 639,842 639,803 645,529 652,223 655,109 657,781 % All HH's 35.3%33.9%33.7%33.4%33.2%32.9%32.6%32.4%32.3%32.2%31.9%31.6% *Census data. Pueblo West CDP Pueblo City Pueblo County Colorado Households with One or More People Under 18 Years Old Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009- 2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 56 statewide, at 31.6%. Compared to other Front Range and Southern Colorado counties, Pueblo West was among the higher end of the range of percent of households with children, with El Paso County being closest in 2017 at 35.0%. And the total number of households with children actually increased in Pueblo West from 2007 to 2017, whereas it decreased both in the City of Pueblo and throughout Pueblo County. Pueblo West has therefore still been experiencing some level of in-migration of house- holds with children over the past decade, particularly because children do grow up. Overall, the relative importance of households with children and public schools to Pueblo West’s population growth over the next 10 years is somewhat ambiguous. As mentioned before, the fertility rate in Pueblo County has fallen significantly since 2007, and the State Demography Office projects that it will continue to fall and remain at an historic low over the next 10 years. Therefore, households with children moving to Pueblo West will perhaps be less of a component of population growth than before. Retirees and Seniors A corollary to the trend of homeowners moving to Pueblo West because of its home- price advantage would seem to be that more retirees have also been moving to Pueblo West. Although communities also founded by McCulloch Properties, like Lake Havasu City, AZ, and Fountain Hills, AZ, are known nationally as destination communities for retirees, Pueblo West does not seem to have such a unique or high-profile reputation for attracting retirees. Pueblo West’s relatively older median age, at 39.3 years versus 36.5 statewide in 2017, according to the ACS, also seems to suggest a community with a higher number of seniors. It should be noted that while sometimes the terms “re- tiree” and “senior” are used interchangeably, they are in fact very distinct topics and demographic groups. The table below shows the median age and proportion of the total population who are 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85+ years old in Pueblo West CDP, the City of Pueblo, Pueblo County, and Colorado statewide, according to the 2000 Census and the ACS from 2007 to 2017. While Pueblo West does have a somewhat higher median age than the City of Pueblo, Pueblo County, and statewide, Pueblo West’s senior population also has a rather unique age-bracket composition. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 57 In 2017, compared to both the City of Pueblo and Colorado statewide, noticeably higher proportions of Pueblo West’s population were in the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age brackets. The proportion of Pueblo West’s population in the 75 to 84 age bracket was about the same as Colorado statewide and lower than the City of Pueblo in 2017. Pueblo West’s population proportion in the 75 to 84 bracket grew from 2000 to 2017, while it remained fairly steady in Colorado statewide and actually dropped in the City of Pueblo. Finally, the proportion of Pueblo West’s population 85+ years old in 2017 was only about 67% of the proportion statewide and about 36% of the proportion in the City of Pueblo. It seems somewhat counterintuitive that, in comparison to the City of Pueblo and Colo- rado statewide, Pueblo West should have a higher proportion of its population aged 55 to 74 but a lower proportion of its population aged 75 and older. This is probably a function of out-migration of older seniors from Pueblo West rather than lower than normal life expectancy. This out-migration is likely driven by Pueblo West’s semi-rural nature – with dirt roads, large lots to maintain, and in some neighborhoods several miles distance from commercial and healthcare services – which some interviewees noted can be difficult for older seniors. Furthermore, Pueblo West has a relative lack 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo West CDP 55 to 64 Years 8.7%11.4%11.6%12.6%14.7%14.0%13.8%14.1%12.7%12.6%12.9%13.8% 65 to 74 Years 6.0%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%7.5%7.8%9.0%10.1%10.0%10.2% 75 to 84 Years 2.4%4.0%4.2%3.6%3.6%3.8%3.4%3.4%3.5%3.6%3.2%3.8% 85+ Years 0.5%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.9%0.8%1.2%1.0%1.0%1.1%1.0%1.0% Median Age:34.1 36.1 36.3 37.2 38.2 37.4 38.1 38.4 37.9 39.0 38.6 39.3 Pueblo City 55 to 64 Years 8.4%9.4%9.3%10.7%11.0%11.8%12.2%12.5%12.8%12.7%12.6%12.5% 65 to 74 Years 8.2%6.8%6.7%7.2%7.5%7.6%7.6%7.7%7.9%8.2%8.8%9.0% 75 to 84 Years 6.1%7.0%6.8%6.4%6.3%6.0%5.9%5.7%5.6%5.5%5.4%5.4% 85+ Years 2.2%2.0%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.7%2.8%2.8%2.9%2.8% Median Age:36.5 35.8 35.7 36.6 36.9 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.7 37.4 37.3 37.5 Pueblo County 55 to 64 Years 8.9%10.3%10.5%11.7%12.3%12.6%13.0%13.2%13.3%13.4%13.4%13.5% 65 to 74 Years 8.0%7.1%7.0%7.6%7.7%7.9%8.0%8.3%8.6%9.0%9.5%9.8% 75 to 84 Years 5.3%6.1%6.1%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.4%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.3% 85+ Years 1.8%1.7%1.8%1.7%1.8%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.3% Median Age:36.7 36.6 36.7 38.0 38.4 38.6 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.8 Colorado 55 to 64 Years 7.9%10.4%10.7%10.7%11.3%11.6%11.9%12.1%12.3%12.4%12.5%12.6% 65 to 74 Years 5.3%5.4%5.5%5.6%5.8%6.0%6.3%6.6%6.9%7.3%7.6%8.0% 75 to 84 Years 3.3%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.6% 85+ Years 1.1%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5% Median Age:34.3 35.5 35.6 35.5 35.8 35.9 36.1 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.4 36.5 Seniors as a Percent of, and Median Age of, Total Population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008- 2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 58 of housing oriented towards older seniors, like townhomes and multifamily living, as well as retirement homes and assisted living facilities. There are currently only three retirement or assisted living facilities in Pueblo West, two of which are relatively small, housing an estimated group quarters population of 103 people, according to Esri. No upcoming development plans for retirement homes, nursing homes, or other types of senior group quarters housing in Pueblo West were discovered during interviews or through public records. The population projection for Pueblo West therefore does not assume any non-proportional changes in its group quarters population. Pueblo West’s relatively larger proportion of population aged 55 to 74 is also indicative of a larger population of retirees. The following table shows the proportion of total households in Pueblo West CDP, the City of Pueblo, Pueblo County, and statewide which received retirement income, according to Census and ACS estimates. Figure 8 in the Appendix shows the proportion of total households in the other Front Range and Southern Colorado counties which received retirement income. Retirement income is distinct from, and does not include, Social Security income. It should be noted that, ac- cording to a Census Working Paper on the 2016 ACS Content Test Question on retire- ment, survivor, and disability income, a significantly higher rate of retirement income reporting occurred when the ACS’s survey question clarified that retirement income in- cluded 401(k), 403(b), IRA, and other retirement savings accounts. Thus, the ACS and Census may have universally underreported the number of households with retire- ment income over the years. From 2000 to 2017, the proportion of total households with retirement income in Pueblo West CDP grew by almost 50%, whereas it only grew by 14% in Colorado statewide, and actually fell slightly in the City of Pueblo. From 2014 to 2017, Pueblo West CDP also experienced a significantly higher increase in the percentage of its households with retirement income compared to any other Front Range and Southern Colorado county examined. Much of the statewide annual increases in the percentage of households with retirement income is probably due to people in the baby boomer 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo West CDP 17.7%20.6%22.3%21.1%22.4%21.7%22.0%21.9%21.3%23.1%24.1%26.5% Pueblo City 22.6%21.9%22.3%21.0%21.3%21.2%20.1%20.2%21.5%22.3%22.1%22.1% Pueblo County 22.5%21.9%22.8%22.1%22.1%22.0%21.4%21.2%22.0%23.1%23.2%23.7% Colorado 14.6%15.3%15.3%15.3%15.4%15.4%15.6%15.8%16.0%16.3%16.6%16.6% *Census data. Percent of Total Households with Retirement Income - ACS Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011- 2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 59 generation increasingly reaching retirement age. The Great Recession also caused some people to either delay retirement or retire early. But Pueblo West CDP’s in- crease, particularly from 2014 to 2017, is likely attributable to at least some in-migra- tion of retirees in addition to existing residents reaching retirement age. Pueblo West CDP also had the highest proportion of households with retirement income compared to the other counties in 2017, with Fremont County – whose percentage has actually been decreasing – and Custer County closest at 25.7% and 24.4%, respectively. Over- all, retirees compose a significant portion of Pueblo West’s population and have likely been a significant component of Pueblo West’s growth in the past several years. Again, a few interviewees rightly noted that Pueblo West’s semi-rural nature can be tough for older seniors. But its semi-rural nature is also part of Pueblo West’s unique appeal to certain retirees, fulfilling a dream of country life unavailable in the cities and suburbs, but with readily available urban amenities. Pueblo West should continue to fill this unique niche in the next 10 years, particularly as Colorado’s Front Range contin- ues to grow more urban. Retirees also often bring new consumer spending dollars and demand for certain services, like recreation and healthcare, to a community, which could increase demand for retail, entertainment, and other commercial development in Pueblo West. Though if builders in Pueblo West continue to eschew construction of smaller homes, townhomes, and multifamily units, then out-migration of residents in the 75 to 84 and 85+ year old age brackets may become an increasing trend as well. Military and Veterans Nearly everyone interviewed cited the military, and the Army in particular, as a signifi- cant employer and driver of growth for Pueblo West. The northern part of Pueblo West is within the allowable drive-time area for Fort Carson, and offers perhaps an easier commute than from some areas in El Paso County. The Pueblo Chemical Depot – previously known as the Pueblo Army Depot, which supplied the Army with numer- ous types of munitions and included nearly 1,000 buildings from the 1950’s to 1980’s – also remains an Army presence in Pueblo County. Though once a massive Army com- plex and major employer, the Pueblo Chemical Depot is set to close and be turned over to private development when its mustard gas stockpile is fully destroyed, which began in 2016 and was about 25% destroyed as of 2019. The table below summarizes the estimated number of active duty military servicemen and women living in Pueblo West CDP, according to the 2000 Census and the ACS from Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 60 2007 to 2017. While an important part of the Pueblo West community, active duty military and their families comprise probably only about 0.5% to 1.0% of Pueblo West’s current population. The lack of multifamily rental housing in Pueblo West is likely a major limitation on population growth from active duty military. A very sizeable component of Pueblo West’s population, though, are military veterans. According to the ACS, only seven incorporated cities and towns in Colorado had a higher percentage of the adult population who are veterans than Pueblo West in 2017, with those municipalities including Colorado Springs, Fountain, Manitou Springs, Mon- ument, and Cañon City. The table below summarizes the estimated number of veter- ans, as well as the proportion of the civilian population 18+ years old who are veterans, in Pueblo West CDP, the City of Pueblo, Pueblo County, and Colorado statewide, ac- cording to the 2000 Census and the ACS from 2007 to 2017. The general fall in the number of veterans throughout Colorado from 2000 to 2017, de- spite significant population growth statewide, is a function of the diminishing number of surviving veterans who served from World War II through the Vietnam era. Military service was significantly more prevalent in those generations, but today the youngest World War II veterans are in their 90’s and the youngest generation of Americans sub- ject to the draft are in their mid-60’s. That Pueblo West’s total number of veterans has increased since 2000, and that its proportion of veterans has not fallen as significantly 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo West CDP 48 21 38 119 116 161 184 187 99 84 39 43 Pueblo County 145 145 168 217 258 330 369 379 274 279 183 207 Total Population Employed by the Armed Forces - ACS Estimate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Veterans 2,134 2,938 3,297 3,171 3,272 3,500 3,502 3,495 3,470 3,409 3,181 3,378 Veterans as % of Civ. Pop. 18+17.8%16.8%17.5%16.1%16.3%17.0%16.5%16.1%15.6%15.1%14.1%14.6% Total Veterans 12,502 10,139 9,565 9,849 9,578 9,549 9,542 9,439 9,326 8,961 8,912 8,480 Veterans as % of Civ. Pop. 18+16.3%12.7%11.9%12.6%12.0%11.8%11.7%11.5%11.3%10.8%10.7%10.1% Total Veterans 17,600 15,369 15,035 15,401 15,127 15,415 15,527 15,351 15,089 14,817 14,438 14,167 Veterans as % of Civ. Pop. 18+16.7%13.4%12.9%13.4%12.9%13.0%12.9%12.7%12.3%12.0%11.6%11.3% Total Veterans 446,385 415,502 414,151 411,402 405,722 405,303 405,895 399,458 395,007 391,725 383,699 376,336 Veterans as % of Civ. Pop. 18+14.1%11.6%11.4%11.4%11.1%10.9%10.7%10.4%10.0%9.8%9.4%9.1% *Census data. Total Veterans, and Veterans as a Percent of Civilian Population 18+ Years Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West CDP Pueblo City Pueblo County State of Colorado Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 61 since 2000, are indications that veterans have comprised an important part of in-mi- gration to Pueblo West during the past two decades. Likewise, since Pueblo West in the past two decades has had a lower proportion of its population in the 75 to 84 and 85+ years old age brackets compared to the City of Pueblo and Colorado statewide, it would be reasonable to infer that Pueblo West has been impacted less by the aging and deaths of veterans from the World War II and Korean War eras. The following table shows the number and percent of total veterans by era of final dis- charge in Pueblo West CDP, according to the 2000 Census and the ACS from 2007 to 2017. Likewise, Figure 9 of the Appendix includes the number and distribution of vet- erans by era of final discharge in the City of Pueblo, Pueblo County, and Colorado statewide. In 2017, 55.8% of all veterans in Pueblo West CDP were discharged sometime after the Vietnam era, compared to 41.7% in the City of Pueblo and 50.3% in Colorado statewide. The bracket of veterans with the largest increase in Pueblo West CDP since 2009 has been those discharged since September 2001, similar to the City of Pueblo and Colorado statewide. The total number of veterans discharged during the Gulf War Era and during the Vietnam Era has increased somewhat in Pueblo West CDP since 2000, whereas those totals statewide have actually decreased. This trend may also partly be a function of Pueblo West’s increase in the proportion of people in the 55 to 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # Veterans 0 --349 251 336 387 450 579 653 597 679 % Tot. Veterans 0.0%--11.0%7.7%9.6%11.1%12.9%16.7%19.2%18.8%20.1% # Veterans 378 --582 651 813 769 812 712 569 635 713 % Tot. Veterans 17.7%--18.4%19.9%23.2%22.0%23.2%20.5%16.7%20.0%21.1% # Veterans 356 --378 419 483 428 417 300 486 360 494 % Tot. Veterans 16.7%--11.9%12.8%13.8%12.2%11.9%8.6%14.3%11.3%14.6% # Veterans 613 --960 1,081 1,094 1,226 1,200 1,167 1,126 1,106 1,041 % Tot. Veterans 28.7%--30.3%33.0%31.3%35.0%34.3%33.6%33.0%34.8%30.8% # Veterans 309 --389 346 326 320 311 300 300 238 226 % Tot. Veterans 14.5%--12.3%10.6%9.3%9.1%8.9%8.6%8.8%7.5%6.7% # Veterans 225 --261 256 283 272 219 214 193 166 151 % Tot. Veterans 10.5%--8.2%7.8%8.1%7.8%6.3%6.2%5.7%5.2%4.5% # Veterans 242 --252 268 165 100 86 91 82 79 74 % Tot. Veterans 11.3%--7.9%8.2%4.7%2.9%2.5%2.6%2.4%2.5%2.2% # Veterans 11 --0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 % Tot. Veterans 0.5%--0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% *Census data. War on Terror (9/2001 or later) Pueblo West CDP - Veterans by Era of Final Discharge Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Before World War II World War II Korean War Between Korean War & Vietnam Vietnam Era Between Vietnam & Gulf War Gulf War Era (8/1990 to 8/2001) Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 62 64 and 65 to 74 year age brackets, and its increase in the number of retirees. It is nota- ble that in 2000, only 22.3% of veterans in Pueblo West CDP were discharged during the Korean War, World War II, or before, versus 39.4% in the City of Pueblo and 26.3% in Colorado statewide. Similarly, those oldest of veterans discharged during or before the Korean War comprise only 6.7% of veterans in Pueblo West CDP, versus 16.2% in the City of Pueblo and 9.6% in Colorado statewide. In 2017, according to ACS estimates, 2.2% of Pueblo West CDP’s total population were veterans discharged since September 2001, versus 1.0% in the City of Pueblo and 1.5% in Colorado statewide. Recently discharged veterans and their households are there- fore an important component of Pueblo West’s population and recent growth. Many of the same qualities that attract other populations to Pueblo West also likely attract those recently discharged from the military, including the relative affordability of homes. The proximity of Fort Carson and other military bases to Pueblo West may also play a factor, particularly for those whom that base is their last posting before dis- charge or retirement. Population growth driven by those leaving military service is probably going to be a ra- ther stable trend over the next 10 years, rather than one filled with spikes and valleys. Any major decreases in overall troop levels nationally, resulting in a higher rate of dis- charges, would probably contribute to some influx of population growth in Pueblo West, though such a military contraction seems rather unlikely. Any decreases in troop levels at Fort Carson or other regional military bases would also probably have a slight effect on Pueblo West population growth, though the corresponding negative eco- nomic impact regionally would perhaps have a greater effect on growth trends. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 63 Risks and Factors for Future Consideration Overall, it is important to note that zero or even negative population growth is a possi- bility in Pueblo West in the next 10 years, simply because it has occurred there before recently. This projection has attempted to reflect a realistic “positive case” economic scenario for Pueblo West, but it is not possible to predict with certainty any unex- pected recessions or economic crises that may affect Pueblo West, Pueblo County, Col- orado, the nation, or even the world. The following, though, are some particular risks and factors for future consideration which might cause Pueblo West’s actual popula- tion changes to deviate from this projection. Jobs, Employment, and Wage Growth Average annual pay adjusted for inflation in 2018, as reported by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, was on pace to noticeably decline in Pueblo County and statewide as of the publication of third quarter 2018 data. The fourth quarter 2018 QCEW job and wage data will be published in late May, 2019. If wages actually de- clined in Pueblo County in 2018, and if they remain stagnant or decline further in 2019, then that would be a possible indicator foretelling slower population growth in Pueblo West. In addition to being a poor sign of economic health in Pueblo County, home- builders’ margins in Pueblo West are already squeezed by what buyers can afford, and a fall in wages would further stress the viability of Pueblo West’s residential market. In conjunction with job and wage growth, the unemployment rate in Pueblo County and Pueblo West will continue to be telling indicators about future population growth. Historically, the monthly unemployment rate tends to drop in Pueblo County from Jan- uary into spring or early summer, often as much as 1.0% from a seasonal high in Janu- ary. It would be somewhat worrisome if the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s LAUS monthly unemployment rate for Pueblo County does not drop, or drops very little, from the es- timated 6.9% rate in January 2019. Also, if negative job growth continues to occur in neighboring Southern Colorado counties, like Fremont, Custer, Huerfano, Otero, Crow- ley, or Las Animas, then unemployment rates in Pueblo County could continue to be disproportionately elevated in comparison to its rate of job growth. Foreclosures Pueblo County’s foreclosure rate will be an important indicator to track in the future. In hindsight, the high foreclosure rates should have been a glaringly obvious warning sign in the years before the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the Great Recession. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 64 Since then, it seems that subprime mortgage lending has just about dried up, and that there has been next to no purely speculative single-family homebuilding occurring in Pueblo West or Pueblo County. As single-family homebuilding is projected to continue to rise in Pueblo West in the next 3 to 4 years, there could be a worry that this rise may be more of a reaction to the strong residential development activity elsewhere in the Front Range, and less a reflection of the recovery and strengthening of the Pueblo County economy. If there is truth to this cynical, albeit plausible, explanation, then an increase in foreclosure rates may indicate the speculative nature of this residential unit growth. Home Values and Rents While Pueblo West’s lower home prices compared to elsewhere in the Front Range will likely continue to be a significant factor driving population growth, the stagnation of home values is also a limiting factor on growth. Pueblo West home values appeared to move slightly upward from 2016 to 2017, according to the ACS, and it will be important to see if this continues in 2018 and beyond. If not, homebuilding may slow as profit margins become increasingly squeezed. Likewise, buyers aware of and focused on their home equity may avoid Pueblo West. Apartment rents in the Pueblo market have been rising since the beginning of 2017 at a rate similar to the start of the multifamily development booms in the Colorado Springs and Denver Metro markets. This may be signaling the start of a boom in multi- family demand in Pueblo County. It will be important to see if there is any greater pro- liferation of multifamily development in the Pueblo market in the next couple of years, and if so, whether or not any of the multifamily development occurs in Pueblo West. Upfront costs for permits and fees can add up to very sizeable sums for multifamily de- velopment projects, and several interviewees noted that the City of Pueblo currently has a significant advantage over Pueblo West in terms of these costs. This projection generally assumes that multifamily development will be minimal in Pueblo West, but there could be even greater population growth in Pueblo West if multifamily projects become financially desirable to developers. Finally, there is some worry that the proliferation of multifamily development and ris- ing rents in the Front Range are mirroring the speculative boom of single-family devel- opment which helped lead to the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the Great Recession. It is not clear exactly what the economic and financial consequences would be if this is true, but a plausible scenario could entail high multifamily vacancy rates, falling rents, Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 65 and financial distress to multifamily property owners, thus resulting in deterioration of those properties and their neighborhoods. Pueblo West may therefore be situated to avoid some or many of the negative localized consequences of this scenario, although perhaps not any broader macroeconomic consequences. Children and School Districts The desirability of the District 70 schools located in Pueblo West, in comparison to Dis- trict 60 schools located in the City of Pueblo, is a major fundamental element of Pueblo West’s attractiveness as a community. Some interviewees warned that increased crowding at D-70 schools, like Pueblo West High School, may be a risk for their ongoing desirability, particularly amongst those considering moving to Pueblo West from other counties or states. There was also concern expressed about the financial pressures that District 70 faces resulting from its dueling functions as a rural school district enrol- ling a large, non-resident, urban and suburban population. The historical averseness of the Pueblo West and unincorporated Pueblo County electorate to tax-increase ballot issues could foretell further financial risks for District 70. Finally, continued stagnation of home values in Pueblo West would be yet another financial pressure on District 70. The reorganization of District 60 currently being explored, which will likely include the closing and consolidation of several of its schools, may also result in increased crowd- ing and financial pressures on District 70. Nonetheless, as fertility rates have dropped over the past decade – and if they continue to remain low or fall in the next decade – the importance of D-70 schools as a growth driver in Pueblo West may diminish. Commuters In practical terms, the sustainability of the trend of Pueblo West residents commuting to Metro Denver or Northern Colorado seems questionable. In other words, how long can someone continue to commute five or more hours per day before getting “burned out?” There could therefore be medium- to long-term risks of out-migration from Pueblo West if its percentage of ultra-commuters continues to rise. First, this trend of ultra-commuters is predicated upon a combination of strong wages, available jobs, and high housing prices in Metro Denver and Northern Colorado. Without any of those ele- ments, then there is much less reason for someone to commute that far from Pueblo West. Second, this trend of ultra-commuting may be predicated upon ultra-commut- ers’ speculation or hope that a similarly desirable job may eventually become available in Pueblo County. If job and wage growth in Pueblo County does not continue to occur – or perhaps even if it only continues to occur at its most recent rates – then many of Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 66 those ultra-commuters may “burn out” before finding another job closer to home. Also, while an unlikely possibility in the next 10 years, a Front Range commuter rail line would probably be transformative in terms of increasing growth demand in “bedroom communities” like Pueblo West. Retirees and Seniors Though it is just a hypothesis, the recent increase in households with retirement in- come in Pueblo West may be correlated with the in-migration of homebuyers attracted to Pueblo West’s housing price advantage. If housing values stagnate or decrease else- where in the Front Range, then retirees may become a less significant driver of Pueblo West’s population growth. Pueblo West’s unique age distribution of seniors, skewed towards those in the 55 to 74 age brackets, is likely rooted in real obstacles for older seniors to live in a semi-rural community with limited smaller home, multifamily, and retirement/assisted living home options. There could be a risk of net out-migration of seniors twenty, ten, or even five years afterwards if in-migration of younger seniors slows. The issue of baby boomers reaching advanced age without retirement income or sav- ings, probably best indicated by the disparity between the percent of the population 55+ years old and the percent of households with retirement income, has the potential to be a transformative socioeconomic force in many communities during the next two decades. As of 2017, according to the ACS, 28.8% of Pueblo West CDP’s population was 55+ years old and 26.5% of Pueblo West CDP’s households had retirement income, versus 25.7% and 16.6%, respectively, statewide in Colorado, and 30.9% and 23.7%, re- spectively, in Pueblo County. If the disparity between seniors with and without retire- ment income increases in Pueblo West or Pueblo County, then population growth could be limited by the supply of available jobs as people continue to work later in life. Military and Veterans The major ongoing risk of base closures or significant reductions in troop levels is an existential economic risk in El Paso County, and it would likely have significant negative impact on the Pueblo County economy as well. In addition to threatening military con- tractor jobs and the indirect and induced jobs supported by the military bases, the other major effect of base closures or reductions on Pueblo West would be on its hous- ing market. A base closure or major contraction would probably significantly lower housing demand and values in the El Paso County market, thereby diminishing the Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 67 uniqueness of Pueblo West’s housing price advantage in the Front Range. Aside from the Pikes Peak Region military installations, the Pueblo Chemical Depot is likely on track to close at some point in the next 10 years, when the destruction of its mustard gas stockpile is completed. While that would likely terminate the current mili- tary employment presence in Pueblo County, the anticipated redevelopment of the Chemical Depot complex may benefit population growth in Pueblo West. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 68 Appendix: Figure 1 Residential Dwelling Units 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Single Family - County Total 949 1,065 1,104 960 1,031 1,033 1,073 1,032 1,098 1,204 668 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)637 673 621 456 490 495 606 601 640 663 337 Pueblo City 189 271 334 370 423 409 358 310 360 430 242 Rest of Pueblo County 123 121 149 134 118 129 109 121 98 111 89 Townhome - County Total 23 44 63 82 91 56 94 74 37 10 2 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)4 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 Pueblo City 19 42 63 80 84 54 93 71 37 10 2 Rest of Pueblo County 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 2 0 0 0 Duplex - County Total 78 104 112 28 48 108 84 16 26 52 14 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)74 86 82 12 36 32 34 6 20 8 14 Pueblo City 4 16 26 10 10 76 50 10 6 44 0 Rest of Pueblo County 0 2 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Triplex/Fourplex - County Total 76 124 60 12 10 32 48 8 4 0 0 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)20 40 20 4 4 16 4 0 4 0 0 Pueblo City 52 80 40 8 6 16 44 8 0 0 0 Rest of Pueblo County 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Apartment - County Total 23 0 96 12 164 0 8 148 0 0 0 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pueblo City 23 0 96 12 140 0 8 148 0 0 0 Rest of Pueblo County 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwelling Units - County Total 1,149 1,337 1,435 1,094 1,344 1,229 1,307 1,278 1,165 1,266 684 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)735 801 723 474 554 544 645 608 664 671 351 Pueblo City 287 409 559 480 663 555 553 547 403 484 244 Rest of Pueblo County 127 127 153 140 127 130 109 123 98 111 89 Sources: Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD); Pueblo County Assessor. Total Building Permits Issued Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 69 Appendix: Figure 1 Residential Dwelling Units 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Single Family - County Total 391 180 211 116 181 162 149 184 216 250 352 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)172 66 76 37 36 39 36 56 95 124 221 Pueblo City 152 70 85 48 112 83 77 96 87 89 90 Rest of Pueblo County 67 44 50 31 33 40 36 32 34 37 41 Townhome - County Total 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 8 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 Pueblo City 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 Rest of Pueblo County 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Duplex - County Total 12 2 0 0 2 0 2 24 0 6 0 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pueblo City 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 24 0 6 0 Rest of Pueblo County 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Triplex/Fourplex - County Total 0 12 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pueblo City 0 12 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rest of Pueblo County 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Apartment - County Total 25 179 17 0 92 0 0 82 0 72 0 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pueblo City 25 179 17 0 92 0 0 82 0 72 0 Rest of Pueblo County 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dwelling Units - County Total 436 379 236 120 275 162 151 294 216 329 360 Pueblo West (Zip Code 81007)184 68 76 37 36 39 36 56 95 124 229 Pueblo City 185 267 107 52 204 83 79 206 87 168 90 Rest of Pueblo County 67 44 53 31 35 40 36 32 34 37 41 Sources: Pueblo Regional Building Department (PRBD); Pueblo County Assessor. Total Building Permits Issued Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 70 Appendix: Figure 2 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Adams County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Arapahoe County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 71 Appendix: Figure 2 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Boulder County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Broomfield County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 72 Appendix: Figure 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Crowley County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 50 100 150 200 250 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Custer County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 73 Appendix: Figure 2 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Denver County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Douglas County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 74 Appendix: Figure 2 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. El Paso County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Fremont County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 75 Appendix: Figure 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Huerfano County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Jefferson County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 76 Appendix: Figure 2 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Larimer County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Las Animas County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 77 Appendix: Figure 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Otero County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Total Dwelling UnitsSources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data System (SOCDS) Building Permits Database. Weld County -Total Annual Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Single Family Units Multifamily Units Total Dwelling Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 78 Appendix: Figure 3 5.1%6.5% 4.3% 1.1% -2.8% 1.0% 4.5%3.4% 0.9%0.7% -3.2%-1.4% 4.6%2.8% 8.6% 5.8%4.9%3.4%3.3%4.2% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Change not calculated for 2002 due to formation of Broomfield County in 2001. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Q1 1990 to Q3 2018. Adams County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 4.1%5.1%4.1% 0.7% -3.3%-2.2%-0.8% 1.1%1.8%2.1% 0.3% -3.9% -0.5% 2.7%2.8%3.6%3.2%3.6% 1.7%2.0%1.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Arapahoe County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 79 Appendix: Figure 3 3.0% 6.0% 7.9% 2.9% -3.7% 0.8%1.7%1.6%2.0%1.4% -5.8% -0.5% 2.6%2.9%2.4%2.7%2.2%2.3%1.8%2.2% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Change not calculated for 2002 due to formation of Broomfield County in 2001. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Q1 1990 to Q3 2018. Boulder County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 1.5% 7.3% 3.6%3.4%2.7% -0.3%-1.8% 0.2%1.7% 4.9%6.3% 1.5% 4.5%2.7%2.4% 6.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Broomfield became a county on November 15, 2001. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Broomfield County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 80 Appendix: Figure 3 7.4% 27.5% 2.3% -0.8%-1.1% -6.8% 0.6%2.1% 4.0% 1.5%3.2% -2.1% 0.0% 2.0% -3.3%-4.3% 1.7% -3.7% 4.3% 1.9% -2.6% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Crowley County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 4.8% 0.5% 10.7% 3.1% 11.0% -1.4% 0.6% -4.6% -1.5% 2.8% -4.6% -1.4%-0.3%-2.1%-1.6%-2.3% 6.8% 1.4% -2.3% -6.5% 0.4% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Custer County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 81 Appendix: Figure 3 4.5% 2.3%3.2% -1.5% -5.0% -3.0% -0.5% 0.3%1.8%2.4%1.5% -5.8% -0.7% 0.5% 2.7%1.7% 4.4%3.8%3.5%2.3%2.9% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Denver County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 20.7% 10.6% 15.8% 11.7% 0.5%2.2% 14.7% 11.2% 5.4%3.9%3.1% -3.9% -0.3% 1.5% 4.4% 8.2% 4.4%5.0%3.5%3.7%4.6% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Douglas County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 82 Appendix: Figure 3 3.6%4.5%3.6% 1.1% -2.1%-1.1% 1.4%1.7%2.3%0.8% -0.9% -4.3% -0.9% 1.3%1.0%2.4%2.2%3.2%2.7%2.8%2.1% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. El Paso County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 5.1% 3.5%3.8% 0.6% -3.2%-2.0% 1.3%1.3%1.6%1.9% -1.1% -4.1% -0.3% 0.8% -1.0%-1.5%-0.5% 3.9% 1.2%1.4%0.5% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Fremont County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 83 Appendix: Figure 3 9.1% -5.1% -1.4%-0.2% 6.1% -6.0% -3.8% -1.0% 5.1% 0.8% 2.9% -6.6% -9.1% -0.3% -2.8% 0.0% -3.1% -0.8% 4.9% -0.2%-1.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Huerfano County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 1.2%2.7%2.7% 0.0% -1.4% 0.2%1.2%0.5%1.9%0.2% -3.6% -0.6% 1.2% 3.4%2.0%2.8%2.8%2.2% -0.2% 3.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Change not calculated for 2002 due to formation of Broomfield County in 2001. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Q1 1990 to Q3 2018. Jefferson County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 84 Appendix: Figure 3 5.6% 3.0% 5.2% 2.3% -0.4%-1.1% 1.9%2.1%1.9%2.3%0.8% -3.7% 0.2%1.7%3.0%3.4%3.4%4.0%3.8%3.1%3.3% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Larimer County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 8.7% 1.9% 4.1%4.3%4.4% 0.5%0.6% 3.5%4.8%3.8% 2.0% -10.7% -5.3% -3.0%-1.2% 0.4% -1.9%-2.7% -0.7% 2.9% 0.9% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Las Animas County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 85 Appendix: Figure 3 0.7% -1.8%-0.1% -3.1% -0.3%-1.4%-0.6%-2.2%-3.0%-2.8%-2.0% 1.6% -2.0%-1.5%-1.9% 1.6% -3.1% 1.0%0.8%1.1%0.7% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018. Otero County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries 5.8%4.8%3.9%3.3% 0.3% 3.0%2.9%4.4%3.1% 0.7% -5.0% -0.8% 4.4%4.0% 5.8% 9.0% 3.0% -1.3% 5.3%5.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Change in Employment from Previous Year*Projected based on rate of growth in first three quarters only. Change not calculated for 2002 due to formation of Broomfield County in 2001. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Q1 1990 to Q3 2018. Weld County -Change in Total Annual Average Employment - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 86 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Adams County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Arapahoe County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 87 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Boulder County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Broomfield became a county on November 15, 2001. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Cons Broomfield County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 88 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Crowley County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Custer County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 89 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Denver County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Douglas County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 90 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), El Paso County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Fremont County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 91 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Huerfano County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Jefferson County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 92 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Larimer County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Las Animas County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 93 Appendix: Figure 4 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Otero County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Annual Average Pay*Estimated based on average weekly wage of first three quarters. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quartely Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), First Quarter 1990 through Third Quarter 2018; Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Weld County -Annual Average Pay - Private and Government Jobs, All Industries Not Adjusted Adjusted to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 94 Appendix: Figure 5 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lower Quartile $111,600 $144,600 $146,500 $143,700 $143,700 $144,100 $141,100 $140,100 $139,900 $139,400 $140,800 $145,400 Median $139,600 $172,800 $179,400 $177,300 $179,800 $184,000 $179,300 $176,700 $177,400 $176,900 $178,000 $188,400 Upper Quartile $173,700 $237,300 $240,600 $240,300 $239,400 $239,300 $238,500 $234,400 $232,400 $233,100 $238,100 $246,100 Lower Quartile $68,700 $88,100 $89,600 $89,100 $89,100 $87,000 $85,400 $83,100 $81,400 $81,500 $82,700 $83,300 Median $87,100 $114,800 $119,800 $118,800 $120,600 $118,400 $116,700 $114,800 $113,300 $114,200 $116,800 $121,200 Upper Quartile $114,600 $149,700 $160,300 $162,200 $166,500 $166,100 $165,900 $162,500 $161,800 $164,000 $168,400 $173,100 Lower Quartile $73,300 $93,800 $96,000 $96,000 $96,000 $95,100 $94,100 $92,300 $90,900 $91,400 $92,800 $94,700 Median $95,200 $131,400 $137,800 $138,100 $140,700 $140,700 $140,500 $138,700 $137,600 $138,600 $142,700 $148,000 Upper Quartile $132,500 $176,500 $189,800 $194,600 $197,300 $198,300 $197,700 $195,700 $195,600 $199,300 $205,200 $215,300 Lower Quartile $125,500 $165,900 $168,900 $166,200 $166,200 $164,400 $162,100 $160,300 $161,200 $165,300 $174,000 $187,000 Median $166,600 $230,400 $236,300 $234,100 $236,600 $236,700 $236,800 $236,200 $239,400 $247,800 $264,600 $286,100 Upper Quartile $235,200 $347,800 $360,000 $355,700 $360,800 $360,800 $359,700 $358,800 $363,600 $375,500 $393,900 $426,500 *Census data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West, CDP Pueblo City Pueblo County State of Colorado Values of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 95 Appendix: Figure 5 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lower Quartile $123,600 $160,300 $158,600 $155,600 $152,000 $147,400 $139,900 $136,800 $141,000 $147,500 $156,500 $170,700 Median $149,800 $201,700 $200,000 $198,600 $196,100 $192,300 $188,100 $186,600 $189,400 $198,800 $216,700 $241,900 Upper Quartile $187,400 $254,200 $255,900 $256,300 $254,800 $249,000 $247,700 $247,600 $250,900 $271,600 $295,600 $335,500 Lower Quartile $137,900 $184,000 $182,900 $179,800 $176,000 $170,400 $166,900 $165,000 $166,800 $173,500 $186,400 $206,500 Median $171,700 $233,500 $236,100 $233,400 $232,300 $231,200 $230,900 $230,700 $235,600 $247,600 $266,600 $292,900 Upper Quartile $235,600 $330,200 $339,500 $334,200 $333,000 $334,900 $333,700 $334,200 $345,100 $364,200 $385,900 $419,300 Lower Quartile $177,600 $226,700 $226,800 $229,000 $229,300 $227,600 $230,200 $228,700 $233,800 $239,400 $257,800 $275,600 Median $241,900 $342,400 $348,800 $350,600 $353,300 $353,000 $354,300 $350,900 $358,000 $368,800 $391,000 $423,500 Upper Quartile $348,100 $526,500 $546,000 $542,600 $548,600 $549,600 $546,000 $544,600 $557,500 $577,200 $615,100 $658,600 Lower Quartile -$200,600 $201,300 $206,400 $209,100 $208,200 $210,000 $209,000 $210,700 $217,400 $235,100 $258,500 Median -$245,600 $251,000 $258,000 $270,500 $270,500 $274,900 $275,900 $284,100 $295,500 $328,200 $356,500 Upper Quartile -$353,300 $365,100 $377,100 $391,500 $387,600 $389,100 $390,900 $396,600 $419,400 $456,600 $486,500 Lower Quartile $37,000 --$48,700 $46,700 $52,000 $47,600 $46,700 $45,400 $46,700 $47,000 $48,400 Median $57,200 --$79,600 $81,400 $83,600 $80,400 $78,800 $73,700 $76,100 $74,200 $79,700 Upper Quartile $77,200 --$107,300 $112,400 $118,600 $121,900 $124,000 $120,800 $120,400 $123,700 $130,800 Lower Quartile $88,200 --$154,500 $133,600 $135,900 $142,800 $147,400 $150,800 $162,900 $159,600 $163,700 Median $134,100 --$228,000 $218,400 $225,600 $224,000 $216,200 $215,400 $220,400 $230,700 $248,300 Upper Quartile $189,500 --$345,500 $322,900 $357,700 $362,300 $349,200 $351,400 $347,900 $360,100 $380,600 Lower Quartile $127,100 $174,800 $173,900 $171,300 $170,000 $167,400 $162,800 $160,400 $163,300 $172,300 $187,200 $208,200 Median $165,800 $234,200 $238,500 $236,700 $240,900 $243,400 $246,300 $249,100 $257,500 $271,300 $292,700 $322,900 Upper Quartile $234,500 $352,800 $367,500 $361,500 $370,300 $374,600 $379,300 $385,100 $395,200 $423,000 $458,400 $492,500 Lower Quartile $187,300 $250,500 $254,700 $255,900 $254,900 $254,600 $253,500 $253,200 $256,600 $266,000 $284,000 $308,100 Median $236,000 $334,500 $339,400 $339,800 $338,700 $337,900 $335,300 $335,600 $340,300 $354,700 $376,300 $407,100 Upper Quartile $301,100 $451,200 $463,800 $460,700 $462,700 $460,000 $454,400 $454,000 $459,900 $475,400 $500,400 $555,300 Lower Quartile $115,600 $156,500 $162,700 $159,200 $161,700 $161,400 $160,300 $157,900 $156,400 $157,800 $162,900 $169,900 Median $147,100 $205,200 $217,100 $211,900 $216,800 $217,000 $217,500 $213,500 $214,300 $218,300 $227,000 $238,200 Upper Quartile $199,500 $298,300 $319,700 $313,100 $321,900 $322,000 $321,200 $314,300 $315,500 $320,100 $332,000 $348,000 Lower Quartile $82,700 $96,300 $99,600 $97,200 $94,200 $105,700 $107,700 $106,400 $105,200 $104,600 $103,400 $105,700 Median $104,900 $146,500 $153,400 $152,200 $152,800 $158,200 $161,100 $159,500 $157,400 $158,500 $159,000 $160,000 Upper Quartile $139,700 $206,100 $212,500 $219,300 $224,600 $229,900 $233,800 $229,400 $229,700 $229,500 $230,400 $239,300 Lower Quartile $54,800 --$71,100 $80,300 $79,700 $77,100 $74,800 $76,900 $76,400 $79,600 $81,000 Median $75,200 --$119,900 $154,900 $149,100 $159,100 $152,400 $154,700 $147,600 $153,400 $137,400 Upper Quartile $112,600 --$232,900 $273,600 $261,500 $280,400 $268,600 $259,900 $248,800 $253,500 $237,400 Lower Quartile $152,800 $205,800 $207,200 $205,200 $205,200 $204,000 $203,000 $202,100 $203,500 $209,600 $222,200 $242,300 Median $187,900 $255,900 $261,100 $257,800 $259,300 $259,400 $260,800 $262,400 $267,200 $279,500 $299,100 $334,100 Upper Quartile $248,100 $364,000 $371,200 $364,500 $367,100 $364,700 $365,800 $367,400 $374,400 $388,000 $415,100 $453,700 Lower Quartile $138,900 $185,500 $188,700 $185,500 $187,500 $185,700 $184,200 $184,400 $188,900 $194,400 $205,600 $221,600 Median $172,000 $239,700 $244,800 $243,300 $246,000 $244,600 $245,200 $247,100 $251,600 $263,400 $282,500 $306,600 Upper Quartile $233,700 $344,700 $353,300 $352,000 $355,400 $353,500 $354,000 $358,900 $362,800 $374,000 $390,300 $420,200 Lower Quartile $60,300 --$84,000 $87,500 $87,800 $84,600 $84,200 $84,500 $82,000 $87,400 $91,800 Median $84,500 --$131,200 $142,300 $147,600 $143,200 $151,500 $151,200 $150,600 $145,800 $145,900 Upper Quartile $113,800 --$210,600 $237,100 $235,900 $226,400 $225,600 $229,100 $222,600 $226,500 $240,800 Lower Quartile $45,900 --$58,300 $61,400 $60,600 $58,900 $60,300 $60,300 $59,700 $61,700 $61,900 Median $66,300 --$90,300 $93,800 $93,300 $90,900 $91,800 $93,200 $91,900 $92,300 $91,800 Upper Quartile $88,800 --$124,700 $134,300 $136,200 $139,000 $145,100 $153,200 $157,400 $156,700 $158,300 Lower Quartile $111,000 $151,400 $151,400 $149,800 $144,400 $139,400 $136,000 $133,700 $133,700 $143,300 $154,700 $164,900 Median $140,400 $197,200 $199,200 $198,200 $195,700 $193,300 $192,100 $191,500 $196,100 $210,100 $227,100 $245,000 Upper Quartile $182,000 $284,500 $294,100 $287,600 $287,800 $286,900 $284,300 $283,400 $288,300 $302,500 $329,900 $353,900 *Census data. Douglas County El Paso County Fremont County Huerfano County Jefferson County Larimer County Las Animas County Otero County Weld County Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Denver County Adams County Arapahoe County Boulder County Broomfield County Crowley County Custer County Values of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 96 Appendix: Figure 5 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lower Quartile $168,079 $179,371 $175,592 $172,884 $171,023 $166,764 $159,855 $156,401 $153,323 $151,015 $149,643 $150,266 Median $210,249 $214,352 $215,025 $213,308 $213,988 $212,939 $203,132 $197,260 $194,421 $191,639 $189,180 $194,705 Upper Quartile $261,606 $294,361 $288,378 $289,103 $284,920 $276,936 $270,201 $261,673 $254,698 $252,522 $253,055 $254,336 Lower Quartile $103,468 $109,285 $107,393 $107,195 $106,042 $100,683 $96,751 $92,769 $89,210 $88,291 $87,894 $86,088 Median $131,180 $142,405 $143,590 $142,927 $143,531 $137,022 $132,212 $128,157 $124,171 $123,715 $124,136 $125,256 Upper Quartile $172,597 $185,697 $192,132 $195,142 $198,159 $192,224 $187,951 $181,407 $177,324 $177,664 $178,977 $178,893 Lower Quartile $110,396 $116,355 $115,064 $115,497 $114,254 $110,057 $106,608 $103,039 $99,622 $99,015 $98,629 $97,869 Median $143,379 $162,997 $165,164 $166,147 $167,453 $162,829 $159,175 $154,838 $150,802 $150,148 $151,663 $152,953 Upper Quartile $199,556 $218,941 $227,490 $234,122 $234,815 $229,488 $223,978 $218,470 $214,367 $215,906 $218,088 $222,505 Lower Quartile $189,013 $205,792 $202,440 $199,954 $197,802 $190,256 $183,646 $178,952 $176,667 $179,073 $184,929 $193,258 Median $250,913 $285,802 $283,224 $281,644 $281,588 $273,927 $268,275 $263,683 $262,370 $268,447 $281,219 $295,675 Upper Quartile $354,230 $431,432 $431,488 $427,940 $429,403 $417,545 $407,511 $400,548 $398,486 $406,787 $418,640 $440,773 *Census data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo City Pueblo County State of Colorado Pueblo West, CDP Values of Owner-Occupied Housing Units, Adjusted for Inflation to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 97 Appendix: Figure 5 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lower Quartile $186,152 $198,846 $190,095 $187,201 $180,902 $170,583 $158,495 $152,717 $154,529 $159,790 $166,330 $176,413 Median $225,611 $250,201 $239,716 $238,934 $233,387 $222,544 $213,102 $208,312 $207,572 $215,364 $230,311 $249,995 Upper Quartile $282,240 $315,325 $306,716 $308,352 $303,248 $288,162 $280,624 $276,409 $274,973 $294,230 $314,166 $346,728 Lower Quartile $207,689 $228,245 $219,220 $216,316 $209,465 $197,200 $189,084 $184,198 $182,804 $187,956 $198,108 $213,411 Median $258,594 $289,648 $282,984 $280,802 $276,470 $267,562 $261,591 $257,543 $258,205 $268,230 $283,345 $302,702 Upper Quartile $354,833 $409,600 $406,917 $402,073 $396,317 $387,572 $378,055 $373,085 $378,211 $394,545 $410,138 $433,332 Lower Quartile $267,480 $281,212 $271,838 $275,508 $272,900 $263,396 $260,798 $255,310 $256,232 $259,347 $273,992 $284,823 Median $364,321 $424,734 $418,064 $421,804 $420,477 $408,519 $401,393 $391,729 $392,349 $399,528 $415,558 $437,673 Upper Quartile $524,267 $653,103 $654,424 $652,798 $652,912 $636,039 $618,573 $607,966 $610,991 $625,292 $653,734 $680,641 Lower Quartile -$248,836 $241,274 $248,318 $248,859 $240,945 $237,913 $233,318 $230,916 $235,514 $249,866 $267,151 Median -$304,657 $300,843 $310,398 $321,933 $313,043 $311,439 $308,002 $311,359 $320,121 $348,814 $368,431 Upper Quartile -$438,255 $437,601 $453,686 $465,941 $448,560 $440,818 $436,383 $434,653 $454,344 $485,278 $502,781 Lower Quartile $55,725 --$58,591 $55,580 $60,178 $53,927 $52,134 $49,756 $50,591 $49,952 $50,020 Median $86,148 --$95,766 $96,878 $96,748 $91,087 $87,969 $80,771 $82,441 $78,860 $82,367 Upper Quartile $116,269 --$129,092 $133,772 $137,253 $138,103 $138,428 $132,390 $130,432 $131,469 $135,177 Lower Quartile $132,836 --$185,878 $159,003 $157,274 $161,781 $164,551 $165,269 $176,473 $169,624 $169,178 Median $201,965 --$274,305 $259,927 $261,082 $253,774 $241,356 $236,067 $238,764 $245,190 $256,610 Upper Quartile $285,402 --$415,668 $384,297 $413,958 $410,456 $389,831 $385,116 $376,887 $382,717 $393,337 Lower Quartile $191,423 $216,833 $208,433 $206,090 $202,324 $193,728 $184,439 $179,063 $178,968 $186,656 $198,958 $215,168 Median $249,708 $290,516 $285,861 $284,772 $286,705 $281,681 $279,038 $278,084 $282,206 $293,905 $311,084 $333,706 Upper Quartile $353,176 $437,635 $440,478 $434,918 $440,710 $433,516 $429,716 $429,908 $433,118 $458,244 $487,191 $508,982 Lower Quartile $282,089 $310,735 $305,278 $307,871 $303,367 $294,643 $287,195 $282,661 $281,220 $288,163 $301,838 $318,411 Median $355,435 $414,934 $406,798 $408,811 $403,101 $391,044 $379,867 $374,648 $372,951 $384,254 $399,935 $420,724 Upper Quartile $453,481 $559,696 $555,901 $554,264 $550,679 $532,347 $514,798 $506,825 $504,026 $515,010 $531,829 $573,884 Lower Quartile $174,103 $194,132 $195,009 $191,532 $192,446 $186,784 $181,607 $176,272 $171,406 $170,948 $173,132 $175,586 Median $221,545 $254,543 $260,211 $254,935 $258,023 $251,129 $246,410 $238,342 $234,862 $236,489 $241,258 $246,172 Upper Quartile $300,463 $370,029 $383,186 $376,688 $383,107 $372,643 $363,893 $350,870 $345,771 $346,771 $352,852 $359,646 Lower Quartile $124,553 $119,456 $119,378 $116,941 $112,111 $122,324 $122,015 $118,780 $115,294 $113,315 $109,894 $109,237 Median $157,988 $181,728 $183,862 $183,111 $181,854 $183,081 $182,513 $178,058 $172,502 $171,706 $168,987 $165,355 Upper Quartile $210,400 $255,659 $254,698 $263,838 $267,306 $266,058 $264,876 $256,092 $251,739 $248,622 $244,871 $247,308 Lower Quartile $82,533 --$85,540 $95,568 $92,235 $87,348 $83,503 $84,278 $82,766 $84,600 $83,711 Median $113,257 --$144,251 $184,353 $172,550 $180,247 $170,132 $169,543 $159,898 $163,035 $141,998 Upper Quartile $169,585 --$280,200 $325,623 $302,628 $317,670 $299,853 $284,837 $269,530 $269,422 $245,345 Lower Quartile $230,129 $255,287 $248,345 $246,874 $244,217 $236,084 $229,982 $225,615 $223,025 $227,064 $236,156 $250,409 Median $282,993 $317,434 $312,949 $310,157 $308,604 $300,197 $295,465 $292,931 $292,837 $302,788 $317,886 $345,281 Upper Quartile $373,659 $451,528 $444,912 $438,527 $436,901 $422,059 $414,421 $410,148 $410,323 $420,328 $441,172 $468,883 Lower Quartile $209,195 $230,105 $226,172 $223,174 $223,152 $214,906 $208,684 $205,856 $207,024 $210,597 $218,513 $229,016 Median $259,046 $297,338 $293,412 $292,712 $292,775 $283,070 $277,792 $275,851 $275,740 $285,346 $300,243 $316,861 Upper Quartile $351,971 $427,587 $423,458 $423,488 $422,976 $409,097 $401,053 $400,659 $397,610 $405,162 $414,814 $434,262 Lower Quartile $90,817 --$101,060 $104,137 $101,609 $95,845 $93,997 $92,608 $88,832 $92,889 $94,872 Median $127,264 --$157,846 $169,357 $170,814 $162,234 $169,128 $165,707 $163,148 $154,957 $150,783 Upper Quartile $171,392 --$253,371 $282,183 $273,001 $256,493 $251,849 $251,082 $241,147 $240,726 $248,859 Lower Quartile $69,129 --$70,140 $73,075 $70,131 $66,729 $67,316 $66,086 $64,674 $65,575 $63,972 Median $99,853 --$108,639 $111,635 $107,974 $102,982 $102,481 $102,142 $99,557 $98,097 $94,872 Upper Quartile $133,740 --$150,026 $159,836 $157,621 $157,476 $161,983 $167,899 $170,515 $166,542 $163,598 Lower Quartile $167,175 $187,806 $181,465 $180,223 $171,857 $161,324 $154,077 $149,256 $146,528 $155,240 $164,416 $170,419 Median $211,454 $244,619 $238,757 $238,453 $232,911 $223,702 $217,634 $213,782 $214,915 $227,606 $241,364 $253,199 Upper Quartile $274,107 $352,911 $352,502 $346,009 $342,523 $332,023 $322,089 $316,375 $315,962 $327,704 $350,621 $365,744 *Census data. Weld County Fremont County Huerfano County Jefferson County Larimer County Las Animas County Otero County Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. El Paso County Adams County Arapahoe County Boulder County Broomfield County Crowley County Custer County Denver County Douglas County Values of Owner-Occupied Housing Units, Adjusted for Inflation to $ 2018 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 98 Appendix: Figure 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pueblo - Market 9.2%8.4%5.2%7.1%6.0%6.4%6.8%7.2%7.4%8.5%12.0%12.2%12.6%10.4%11.6%10.2% Colorado Springs - Market 11.7%9.6%8.6%10.8%9.0%10.2%9.2%10.4%11.7%9.8%8.7%8.7%6.9%5.8%6.6%7.2% Security/Widefield/Fountain - Submarket 24.3%20.9%22.1%24.9%23.0%23.3%24.4%24.9%28.8%16.2%16.9%19.2%14.2%11.7%18.4%19.3% Southeastern Colorado - Market 4.4%-4.7%-5.9%-4.0%-3.5%-4.5%-0.7%-4.0%- Canon City - Submarket 4.2%-5.5%-4.5%-4.8%-9.4%-5.9%-5.6%-5.9%- Metro Denver 7.1%6.2%5.3%6.1%5.9%6.2%6.5%7.9%8.4%9.0%7.4%7.7%6.5%6.1%5.3%5.5% Fort Collins/Loveland - Market 7.9%9.1%5.0%4.6%5.2%8.9%4.1%4.3%4.4%9.9%5.6%6.3%4.9%6.8%2.9%4.1% Greeley - Market 7.2%8.3%8.1%7.2%7.3%6.1%5.5%8.1%8.4%9.1%7.1%7.4%6.9%6.3%3.9%5.1% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pueblo - Market 7.4%9.6%7.3%7.3%5.9%4.3%15.8%10.7%14.9%11.1%9.3%8.3%8.1%6.6%8.0%7.3% Colorado Springs - Market 5.8%6.4%6.2%6.7%6.4%6.0%6.1%7.1%5.6%5.4%5.4%7.1%6.7%5.5%4.3%5.3% Security/Widefield/Fountain - Submarket 16.2%15.0%10.7%10.7%5.3%3.6%4.7%2.6%5.9%5.9%10.1%5.3%3.9%7.3%3.3%4.4% Southeastern Colorado - Market 3.1%-3.8%-1.8%-0.9%-1.1%-0.0%-30.0%-0.0%- Canon City - Submarket 5.9%-6.3%-7.8%----------- Metro Denver 5.5%4.8%4.9%5.4%4.9%4.8%4.3%4.9%4.6%4.2%4.4%5.2%5.1%4.7%3.9%4.7% Fort Collins/Loveland - Market 4.0%6.3%2.3%3.4%3.0%3.5%2.1%2.4%5.1%5.2%2.8%2.1%1.7%2.8%1.3%1.2% Greeley - Market 3.8%6.7%1.8%6.4%5.8%5.4%3.1%3.2%1.4%2.2%1.3%6.3%5.3%6.9%4.7%7.2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pueblo - Market 3.9%5.9%6.1%5.7%2.6%2.1%2.3%3.1%1.7%2.2%3.2%4.3%4.5%4.4%2.9%- Colorado Springs - Market 6.2%4.6%4.2%5.0%5.2%5.0%4.0%6.8%7.4%6.4%5.4%5.4%6.3%6.3%5.2%- Security/Widefield/Fountain - Submarket 5.1%1.1%2.8%1.9%3.5%4.4%4.9%2.5%3.5%3.7%3.5%1.9%4.1%5.9%5.4%- Southeastern Colorado - Market --0.0%---0.7%---0.7%---1.4%- Canon City - Submarket ---------------- Metro Denver 4.9%4.5%5.0%6.8%6.1%5.4%5.1%6.2%5.7%5.0%5.4%6.4%6.1%6.0%5.5%- Fort Collins/Loveland - Market 1.9%2.1%2.4%2.3%2.0%2.9%4.0%4.1%2.9%2.4%3.9%3.1%3.3%3.8%2.8%- Greeley - Market 5.8%3.7%3.7%2.9%1.3%2.6%1.1%1.9%2.1%4.7%2.4%2.7%0.8%4.3%1.5%- Sources: Ron Throupe and Jennifer van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2012 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing, Apartment Realty Advisors, and Pierce-Eislen; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing and Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily; Throupe and van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2014 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Apartment Realty Advisors, Colorado Housing and Finance Authority, Colorado Division of Housing, Multifamily Capital Advisors, Pierce-Eislen, and Denver Housing Authority; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily, Colorado Division of Housing, and Denver Housing Authority. Multifamily Apartment Vacancy Rates 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 99 Appendix: Figure 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pueblo - Market $440 $476 $457 $456 $462 $499 $465 $489 $473 $496 $490 $481 $488 $483 $489 $483 Colorado Springs - Market $668 $663 $686 $656 $648 $675 $672 $655 $671 $691 $666 $700 $687 $684 $701 $711 Security/Widefield/Fountain - Submarket $634 $631 $634 $631 $630 $584 $583 $630 $586 $629 $629 $604 $585 $635 $627 $627 Southeastern Colorado - Market $462 -$454 -$491 -$497 -$498 -$498 -$493 -$493 - Canon City - Submarket $548 -$566 -$572 -$570 -$586 -$571 -$571 -$572 - Metro Denver $796 $802 $814 $818 $821 $834 $842 $829 $821 $808 $817 $811 $837 $843 $857 $846 Fort Collins/Loveland - Market $744 $771 $727 $755 $737 $804 $801 $781 $797 $797 $808 $821 $804 $854 $857 $873 Greeley - Market $598 $567 $619 $635 $644 $636 $637 $631 $623 $628 $608 $620 $669 $600 $618 $617 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pueblo - Market $495 $483 $512 $528 $542 $545 $527 $554 $549 $513 $558 $543 $555 $572 $566 $554 Colorado Springs - Market $714 $741 $752 $742 $728 $748 $758 $766 $760 $792 $800 $769 $793 $822 $865 $819 Security/Widefield/Fountain - Submarket $627 $627 $635 $635 $635 $635 $627 $627 $628 $685 $680 $674 $678 $729 $781 $717 Southeastern Colorado - Market $614 -$619 -$619 -$620 -$679 -$602 -$533 -$366 - Canon City - Submarket $590 -$590 -$613 ----------- Metro Denver $859 $863 $882 $871 $892 $916 $920 $911 $935 $961 $988 $990 $1,021 $1,068 $1,109 $1,124 Fort Collins/Loveland - Market $880 $843 $933 $980 $987 $984 $973 $962 $1,004 $965 $999 $987 $1,111 $1,124 $1,119 $1,212 Greeley - Market $632 $630 $643 $639 $643 $623 $643 $663 $660 $678 $684 $720 $750 $758 $788 $815 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pueblo - Market $573 $577 $579 $582 $590 $599 $624 $596 $636 $672 $674 $694 $715 $753 $719 - Colorado Springs - Market $840 $867 $903 $922 $948 $976 $1,023 $1,002 $1,048 $1,123 $1,117 $1,114 $1,095 $1,141 $1,140 - Security/Widefield/Fountain - Submarket $719 $804 $828 $853 $803 $828 $825 $856 $928 $979 $1,057 $1,029 $954 $1,004 $1,104 - Southeastern Colorado - Market --$366 ---$656 ---$670 ---$677 - Canon City - Submarket ---------------- Metro Denver $1,158 $1,225 $1,252 $1,245 $1,274 $1,324 $1,329 $1,301 $1,346 $1,377 $1,370 $1,353 $1,379 $1,435 $1,418 - Fort Collins/Loveland - Market $1,206 $1,249 $1,255 $1,218 $1,252 $1,287 $1,281 $1,214 $1,264 $1,306 $1,307 $1,288 $1,311 $1,338 $1,329 - Greeley - Market $874 $891 $959 $910 $942 $980 $1,011 $994 $1,017 $1,031 $1,101 $1,086 $1,112 $1,124 $1,190 - 2018 Sources: Ron Throupe and Jennifer van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2012 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing, Apartment Realty Advisors, and Pierce-Eislen; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Colorado Multi-Family Housing Vacancy & Rental Survey, sponsored by Colorado Division of Housing and Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily; Throupe and van Stroh, Fourth Quarter 2014 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Apartment Realty Advisors, Colorado Housing and Finance Authority, Colorado Division of Housing, Multifamily Capital Advisors, Pierce-Eislen, and Denver Housing Authority; Throupe and van Stroh, Third Quarter 2018 Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, sponsored by Apartment Association of Metro Denver, Newmark Knight Frank Multifamily, Colorado Division of Housing, and Denver Housing Authority. Median Multifamily Apartment Monthly Rent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 100 Appendix: Figure 7 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # HH's 2,663 3,471 3,538 3,838 3,658 4,057 3,966 4,073 4,131 3,990 4,080 3,932 % All HH's 44.5%40.2%38.0%38.4%35.7%39.4%37.3%38.0%38.1%36.5%36.7%34.9% # HH's 13,540 13,432 13,797 12,892 13,282 13,144 12,866 12,872 13,081 13,141 12,717 13,069 % All HH's 33.6%32.4%33.0%31.6%31.3%30.5%30.0%29.8%30.2%30.4%29.5%30.1% # HH's 19,227 20,013 20,353 19,722 19,634 19,831 19,382 19,476 19,556 19,577 19,257 19,498 % All HH's 35.2%34.0%34.1%33.0%32.0%32.1%31.2%31.2%31.1%31.1%30.6%30.7% # HH's 585,387 623,413 628,776 623,912 636,420 638,175 639,842 639,803 645,529 652,223 655,109 657,781 % All HH's 35.3%33.9%33.7%33.4%33.2%32.9%32.6%32.4%32.3%32.2%31.9%31.6% # HH's 53,812 59,308 59,753 60,070 61,311 61,729 62,790 63,226 64,063 64,524 65,172 65,969 % All HH's 42.0%41.0%40.7%41.2%41.4%41.3%41.6%41.4%41.3%41.2%41.1%40.6% # HH's 70,982 74,325 72,821 74,107 77,397 78,042 77,892 78,444 79,507 80,523 79,889 80,372 % All HH's 37.2%35.6%34.4%34.9%35.4%35.3%34.8%34.8%34.8%35.1%34.5%34.2% # HH's 37,008 36,644 35,285 35,885 35,001 34,819 35,003 34,536 35,000 35,267 34,999 34,876 % All HH's 32.3%32.3%30.6%31.2%29.8%29.4%29.2%28.7%28.8%28.8%28.3%27.9% # HH's -6,932 7,103 7,253 7,250 7,197 7,449 7,516 7,986 8,083 8,411 8,518 % All HH's -39.6%38.2%38.5%36.0%34.5%34.8%34.1%35.3%34.4%34.2%32.8% # HH's 506 --427 399 394 431 403 401 418 368 372 % All HH's 37.3%--35.2%34.3%33.4%35.7%34.4%34.2%35.8%31.3%30.6% # HH's 410 --405 377 331 363 375 346 347 371 294 % All HH's 27.7%--22.2%20.4%18.1%17.7%18.3%16.3%17.4%19.0%14.0% # HH's 62,842 62,960 64,540 62,895 64,036 64,261 65,429 67,055 68,951 70,729 72,421 72,585 % All HH's 26.3%25.8%26.2%25.5%25.2%24.9%25.0%25.2%25.4%25.6%25.8%25.3% # HH's 29,546 41,719 42,989 43,083 44,723 45,337 45,668 45,827 46,589 48,549 49,089 48,907 % All HH's 48.5%45.6%45.3%46.0%45.3%45.0%44.7%44.2%44.2%43.7%43.1%43.0% # HH's 75,622 80,007 80,806 79,927 82,168 83,348 83,600 83,515 85,327 86,760 88,084 87,366 % All HH's 39.3%36.8%36.8%36.1%36.2%36.1%35.7%35.2%35.5%35.4%35.3%35.0% # HH's 4,974 4,925 5,113 4,535 4,521 4,568 4,505 4,300 4,298 4,194 4,163 4,134 % All HH's 32.7%30.0%30.8%26.7%26.9%26.4%26.2%25.4%25.9%25.7%25.5%24.7% # HH's 855 --810 651 634 581 568 505 548 562 636 % All HH's 27.7%--23.9%20.6%20.5%18.5%18.6%17.6%18.1%17.9%20.0% # HH's 73,145 68,357 68,564 68,989 69,298 68,179 67,019 65,656 64,919 65,110 64,151 64,052 % All HH's 35.5%32.0%31.8%32.0%31.9%31.3%30.6%29.9%29.4%29.2%28.5%28.1% # HH's 32,451 34,676 35,751 34,308 34,918 35,100 35,446 35,354 35,906 35,932 36,166 36,514 % All HH's 33.4%31.1%31.2%29.9%29.7%29.5%29.4%29.1%29.3%28.7%28.5%28.0% # HH's 1,985 --1,911 1,795 1,801 1,652 1,612 1,568 1,517 1,559 1,676 % All HH's 32.2%--29.8%28.0%28.3%26.8%26.9%26.6%26.0%25.6%26.5% # HH's 2,803 --2,691 2,603 2,336 2,285 2,219 2,304 2,380 2,423 2,401 % All HH's 35.4%--34.7%34.2%31.3%29.9%29.9%31.2%31.9%32.5%32.1% # HH's 25,616 32,583 33,797 32,976 33,947 34,072 34,883 35,252 35,619 36,780 38,141 38,795 % All HH's 40.5%40.2%40.1%39.6%39.1%38.6%39.0%39.0%38.6%39.0%39.5%38.9% *Census data. Denver County Pueblo West, CDP Pueblo City Pueblo County State of Colorado Adams County Arapahoe County Boulder County Broomfield County Crowley County Custer County Households with One or More People Under 18 Years Old Las Animas County Otero County Weld County Douglas County El Paso County Fremont County Huerfano County Jefferson County Larimer County Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 101 Appendix: Figure 8 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pueblo West CDP 17.7%20.6%22.3%21.1%22.4%21.7%22.0%21.9%21.3%23.1%24.1%26.5% Pueblo City 22.6%21.9%22.3%21.0%21.3%21.2%20.1%20.2%21.5%22.3%22.1%22.1% Pueblo County 22.5%21.9%22.8%22.1%22.1%22.0%21.4%21.2%22.0%23.1%23.2%23.7% Colorado 14.6%15.3%15.3%15.3%15.4%15.4%15.6%15.8%16.0%16.3%16.6%16.6% Adams County 13.6%13.2%12.7%13.1%13.1%12.9%13.1%13.4%13.8%14.0%14.3%14.2% Arapahoe County 13.9%15.1%15.0%15.0%14.1%14.3%14.7%14.9%15.0%15.5%15.8%15.8% Boulder County 12.6%13.2%12.2%13.0%12.3%12.6%12.5%13.1%13.5%14.2%14.4%14.8% Broomfield County -13.9%13.8%13.0%15.6%14.8%14.0%14.1%14.5%14.9%15.3%15.4% Crowley County 14.2%--23.4%24.9%25.8%22.7%17.6%14.7%13.8%17.3%15.9% Custer County 21.7%--18.1%18.6%22.2%21.3%20.1%22.9%22.6%20.7%24.4% Denver County 12.9%12.6%12.2%11.9%11.9%11.6%11.5%11.4%11.3%11.2%11.4%11.3% Douglas County 9.6%11.2%11.2%11.7%12.3%12.3%12.7%13.4%13.8%14.6%15.5%16.2% El Paso County 19.0%20.1%20.4%20.6%20.5%20.7%21.1%21.0%21.2%21.7%21.8%21.9% Fremont County 22.3%23.8%24.3%24.5%26.0%25.0%27.2%27.1%27.0%26.4%26.2%25.7% Huerfano County 21.1%--24.4%24.7%24.9%23.3%23.2%26.0%22.3%24.0%22.3% Jefferson County 14.9%16.7%17.1%16.7%16.9%17.0%17.2%17.7%18.0%18.4%18.6%18.9% Larimer County 13.8%14.8%14.3%15.0%15.2%15.7%15.8%16.5%16.8%16.8%17.2%17.1% Las Animas County 19.9%--21.3%22.0%21.1%21.4%19.9%20.1%20.0%21.1%23.1% Otero County 16.8%--19.0%18.0%16.7%16.4%18.1%17.8%18.5%18.0%18.3% Weld County 12.6%11.7%13.0%12.2%13.5%13.9%14.4%14.7%15.5%15.5%15.3%15.1% *Census data. Percent of Total Households with Retirement Income - ACS Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012- 2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 102 Appendix: Figure 9 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # Veterans 0 736 730 498 527 534 818 913 1,009 1,010 1,163 1,087 % Tot. Veterans 0.0%7.3%7.6%5.1%5.5%5.6%8.6%9.7%10.8%11.3%13.0%12.8% # Veterans 1,255 846 975 1,050 1,223 1,302 1,136 1,140 1,128 1087 989 995 % Tot. Veterans 10.0%8.3%10.2%10.7%12.8%13.6%11.9%12.1%12.1%12.1%11.1%11.7% # Veterans 1,815 1,343 1,267 1,328 1,289 1,216 1,286 1,381 901 1,412 1,539 1,454 % Tot. Veterans 14.5%13.2%13.2%13.5%13.5%12.7%13.5%14.6%9.7%15.8%17.3%17.1% # Veterans 3,369 2,820 2,660 3,103 2,843 3,094 3,088 3,009 2,881 2,797 2,775 2,832 % Tot. Veterans 26.9%27.8%27.8%31.5%29.7%32.4%32.4%31.9%30.9%31.2%31.1%33.4% # Veterans 1,143 1,283 1,063 1,179 1,079 1,082 958 901 901 854 766 736 % Tot. Veterans 9.1%12.7%11.1%12.0%11.3%11.3%10.0%9.5%9.7%9.5%8.6%8.7% # Veterans 1,926 1,399 1,311 1152 1,171 1035 1,114 1029 1,126 1,049 1,071 875 % Tot. Veterans 15.4%13.8%13.7%11.7%12.2%10.8%11.7%10.9%12.1%11.7%12.0%10.3% # Veterans 2,870 1,675 1,527 1,519 1,423 1,281 1,137 1,061 902 748 609 501 % Tot. Veterans 23.0%16.5%16.0%15.4%14.9%13.4%11.9%11.2%9.7%8.3%6.8%5.9% # Veterans 124 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 % Tot. Veterans 1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% *Census data. Korean War World War II Before World War II War on Terror (9/2001 or later) Gulf War Era (8/1990 to 8/2001) Between Vietnam & Gulf War Vietnam Era Between Korean War & Vietnam Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo City - Veterans by Era of Final Discharge 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # Veterans 0 1,154 1,037 938 868 1,023 1,372 1,518 1,719 1,829 1,890 1,915 % Tot. Veterans 0.0%7.5%6.9%6.1%5.7%6.6%8.8%9.9%11.4%12.3%13.1%13.5% # Veterans 1,900 1,690 1,905 1,878 2,083 2,345 2,191 2,270 2,149 2,037 2,018 2,067 % Tot. Veterans 10.8%11.0%12.7%12.2%13.8%15.2%14.1%14.8%14.2%13.7%14.0%14.6% # Veterans 2,414 2,108 2,108 2,067 2,042 2,025 1,945 2,037 1,499 2,144 2,120 2,185 % Tot. Veterans 13.7%13.7%14.0%13.4%13.5%13.1%12.5%13.3%9.9%14.5%14.7%15.4% # Veterans 4,936 4,181 4,269 4,858 4,693 4,893 5,156 5,015 4,935 4,894 4,887 4,937 % Tot. Veterans 28.0%27.2%28.4%31.5%31.0%31.7%33.2%32.7%32.7%33.0%33.8%34.8% # Veterans 1,884 1,843 1,631 1,819 1,706 1,743 1,657 1,584 1,499 1,449 1,273 1,199 % Tot. Veterans 10.7%12.0%10.8%11.8%11.3%11.3%10.7%10.3%9.9%9.8%8.8%8.5% # Veterans 2,669 2,063 2,008 1,787 1,800 1,674 1,714 1,536 1,583 1,454 1,428 1,217 % Tot. Veterans 15.2%13.4%13.4%11.6%11.9%10.9%11.0%10.0%10.5%9.8%9.9%8.6% # Veterans 3,630 2,293 2,045 2,034 1,912 1,707 1,487 1,386 1,183 1006 822 647 % Tot. Veterans 20.6%14.9%13.6%13.2%12.6%11.1%9.6%9.0%7.8%6.8%5.7%4.6% # Veterans 167 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 % Tot. Veterans 0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% *Census data. Korean War World War II Before World War II War on Terror (9/2001 or later) Gulf War Era (8/1990 to 8/2001) Between Vietnam & Gulf War Vietnam Era Between Korean War & Vietnam Pueblo County - Veterans by Era of Final Discharge Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017. Pueblo West Population Estimate and 10-Year Population Projection: 2019 to 2029 ANDERSON ANALYTICS Page 103 Appendix: Figure 9 2000*2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 # Veterans 0 33,603 37,297 35,892 38,664 43,241 51,489 56,682 63,410 70,627 76,361 80,224 % Tot. Veterans 0.0%8.1%9.0%8.7%9.5%10.7%12.7%14.2%16.1%18.0%19.9%21.3% # Veterans 67,184 61,892 65,385 63,737 63,631 63,730 62,989 61,260 60,277 60,521 59,145 58,794 % Tot. Veterans 15.1%14.9%15.8%15.5%15.7%15.7%15.5%15.3%15.3%15.4%15.4%15.6% # Veterans 66,453 59,554 58,829 58,311 55,802 56,136 55,403 54,264 32,405 51,771 50,475 50,173 % Tot. Veterans 14.9%14.3%14.2%14.2%13.8%13.9%13.6%13.6%8.2%13.2%13.2%13.3% # Veterans 153,433 140,727 139,973 139,907 139,293 139,133 139,074 136,767 133,982 131,103 128,768 124,688 % Tot. Veterans 34.4%33.9%33.8%34.0%34.3%34.3%34.3%34.2%33.9%33.5%33.6%33.1% # Veterans 41,720 39,972 37,740 38,817 37,414 37,108 35,896 34,645 32,405 31,191 27,922 26,249 % Tot. Veterans 9.3%9.6%9.1%9.4%9.2%9.2%8.8%8.7%8.2%8.0%7.3%7.0% # Veterans 50,565 38,852 37,504 37,337 36,633 34,829 33,107 30,934 29,825 26,953 24,839 22,867 % Tot. Veterans 11.3%9.4%9.1%9.1%9.0%8.6%8.2%7.7%7.6%6.9%6.5%6.1% # Veterans 64,101 40,348 36,919 36,990 33,902 30,883 27,731 24,731 22,140 19,433 16,096 13,253 % Tot. Veterans 14.4%9.7%8.9%9.0%8.4%7.6%6.8%6.2%5.6%5.0%4.2%3.5% # Veterans 2,929 554 504 411 383 243 206 175 140 126 93 88 % Tot. Veterans 0.7%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% *Census data. Korean War World War II Before World War II War on Terror (9/2001 or later) Gulf War Era (8/1990 to 8/2001) Between Vietnam & Gulf War Vietnam Era Between Korean War & Vietnam State of Colorado - Veterans by Era of Final Discharge Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2007, 2006-2008, 2005-2009, 2006-2010, 2007-2011, 2008-2012, 2009-2013, 2010-2014, 2011-2015, 2012-2016, 2013-2017.