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2040 Parkville Master Plan - Section 2 Parkville Today and Tomorrow
18 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Section 2 Parkville, Missouri 19 I. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE................................................................... II. MARKET ANALYSIS............................................................................ III. PHYSICAL PROFILE.......................................................................... 22 38 60 20 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW KEY TAKEAWAYS 1. PARKVILLE IS GROWING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW OVER TIME 2. PARKVILLE LOSES YOUNGER PEOPLE BUT GAINS PEOPLE AS THEY GET OLDER Parkville has seen steady growth over the past few decades and population projections show potential for even more growth in the future. Parkville is also within a region with strong growth potential overall. The natural environmental features present in Parkville will help to control the pace of growth because of the floodplain, tree cover, streams and slopes of the area. The more measured growth rate will help ensure the growth feels more organic. The age analysis indicates that while people ages 25 to 34 tend to migrate out of Parkville those ages 35 to 64 years migrate into Parkville. Given the numbers for children in Parkville and average household size, it would indicate that families with children are attracted to Parkville. It is possible the housing options available in Parkville help contribute to this age pattern since many people in their twenties and early thirties may not be able to afford the higher value homes found in Parkville. Additional housing choice would help even out this imbalance while also providing additional student housing, senior housing or transitional housing for new residents. Increased housing choice can also help Parkville enhance its standing as a community for all ages. 1. PARKVILLE IS GROWING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW OVER TIME Parkville, Missouri 21 3. PARKVILLE HAS STRONG SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS Parkville has very positive socioeconomic demographic indicators. Incomes are generally very high and Parkville which likely helps support the high home values found in Parkville. Over 30% of households earn $200,000 or more per year and another 33% earning between $100,000 and $199,999. Over 45% of owner-occupied homes are valued between $300,000 and $499,999. Over one- quarter of homes are valued more than $500,000. Educational attainment levels are equally high with over 68% of the population age 25 or older having obtained at least a bachelor’s degree. The income density of Parkville and the surrounding area indicates high spending potential for residents. Parkville is located within very reasonable drive times for many amenities and job centers within the Kansas City metro area. The trip to Downtown Kansas City, Missouri, is within a 15-minute drive time of Parkville. There are also important major arterial roadways within Parkville’s city limits and planning boundaries, specifically Interstate 435. Long-term, as the metro continues to grow northward, the Interstate 435 corridor will be a strong asset for Parkville with significant growth potential for more high intensity uses such as business park, multi-family residential and some retail. 4. PARKVILLE’S IS CONVENIENTLY LOCATED AND HAS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR LONG- TERM GROWTH ALONG INTERSTATE 435 22 Parkville 2040 Master Plan The Demographic Profile overviews the socioeconomic and population data available for Parkville The Demographic Profile looks at the regional context of Parkville within the KC metro area. The population of Parkville over time is discussed and population projections are provided. Characteristics about the age profile, household + family makeup, race + ethnic profile, educational attainment levels, housing + housing costs, and incomes. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILEFOCUS AREAS I Parkville, Missouri 23 Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community, Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, FAO, NOAA, USGS, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Figure 2.00 Regional Context Map, Parkville, Missouri Parkville, Missouri is located in southern Platte County along the edges of the Missouri River. Parkville is a northern suburb of the Kansas City metro area. Parkville is surrounded by rolling hills and several streams and lakes. It is a historic railroad community with a charming downtown core. Parkville is located between two major area interstates, providing easy access to Downtown Kansas City, Missouri as well as the other major area job centers. REGIONAL CONTEXT MAP Parkville City Limits 24 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.01 Aerial Base Map, Parkville, Missouri Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line 100-year floodplain Park & Conservation Area Golf Course Missouri River NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy BASE MAP Parkville, Missouri 25 Figure 2.02 Population Dot Density Map (2018) by Block Group Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community, Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, FAO, NOAA,USGS, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line Dot Density 1 dot = 1 person Figure 2.02 is a dot density map of Parkville in 2019. Each dot represents approximately one person from each Census Block Group. The map shows the relative density of the Parkville community and highlights the undeveloped nature of the area adjacent to the Interstate on Parkville’s west side. POPULATION + POPULATION DENSITY 26 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.04 Population Density (2018) 2014-2018 ACS LOW MEDIUM HIGH Area Population (2019) Parkville 6,705 Five Mile Radius 107,895 Ten Mile Radius 392,835 Platte + Clay Counties 351,965 Kansas City Metro Area 2,179,075 Source: Esri 2020 Figure 2.03 Population by Area (2019) Parkville was home to a little over 6,700 residents in 2019. The population of Parkville and surrounding geographies is shown in Table 2.03. Approximately 18% of the metro area’s population lives within ten miles of downtown Parkville. The densest areas of Kansas City are located to the south and southeast in inner Wyandotte and Jackson Counties, including Kansas City, Kansas, and downtown Kansas City, Missouri. To the immediate south and west of Parkville, residential uses are prevented by the wide Missouri River floodplain. To the west and north, population density drops off as the area becomes more rural. POPULATION + POPULATION DENSITY Parkville, Missouri 27 Figure 2.05 and 2.06 show population change over time for Parkville. Generally, Parkville has experienced growth since its incorporation with a more significant increase in population starting in the 1990s. Since 1990, the population has grown from approximately 2,400 to 6,700, a 179% increase. Long-Term Population Trend Over the last one-hundred years, Parkville has seen its population grow in a sort of s-shaped curve typical of a logistic growth curve. In the early 1900s, Parkville’s estimated population dipped to a low of 619 in 1920. Since 1920, Parkville’s growth has continued to climb. Starting in 1990, Parkville’s population experienced even more steep growth gaining around 4,300 residents in the past 30 years. Short-Term Population Trend Population estimates between 2010 and 2019 are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey estimates. These annual surveys help provide population estimates between decennial full Census counts though they tend to have larger margins of error. Between 2010 and 2019, Parkville’s population grew by just over 1,100 residents. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 5,554 4,059 2,402 2,091 1,253 1,2291,186 671636 619 931 765 Figure 2.05 Population Trends 1900 - 2010, Parkville, MO 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5,554 5,430 5,538 5,682 5,811 5,946 6,124 6,326 6,524 Figure 2.06 Population Change 2010-2019, Parkville 6,724 POPULATION CHANGE 28 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.08 Regional Population Change 2000-2018 - 2018 by Census Tract 2010 CENSUS, 2014-2018 ACS DECLINE STABLE GROWTH Area 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2019 2019 - 2024 Parkville 2.0%2.1%1.5% Five Mile Radius 0.6%1.2%1.1% Ten Mile Radius 0.7%1.2%1.1% Platte + Clay Counties 2.1%1.4%1.2% Kansas City Metro Area 1.2%0.9%0.9% Source: Esri 2020 Figure 2.07 Historic + Annual Projected Population Change Growth in the Kansas City region since 2000 has taken place along and immediately outside of the I-435 and I-470 corridors, where sites for new homes are available and transportation facilitates access to employment opportunities. Though Johnson County has traditionally been the center of growth within the region, areas north of the river have grown tremendously in recent years. Since 2000 and 2019, Platte and Clay counties have grown by 94,000 new residents, compared with about 150,000 new residents in Johnson County during the same period. The available of developable land north of the river and its relative proximity to job opportunities in the central business district, coupled with these growth trends, indicate that these two counties will continue to add new housing and residents. As a city in the path of this new growth, Parkville has seen its population grow from about 4,650 residents in 2000 to about 6,705 residents in 2019, for an annual growth rate of 2.1%. This is slightly higher than the Platte and Clay County annual growth rate of 1.7% during this time period. POPULATION CHANGE Parkville, Missouri 29 Source: Confluence with inputs from City of Parkville and U.S. Census Bureau Figure 2.09 Population Projections, 2020-2040 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2019 2030 20400 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2019 2030 2040 15,254 14,418 11.489 10,777 9,782 12,277 Average Projection Population Projection Figures 2.09 and 2.10 summarize the population projections for Parkville in 2030 and 2040. Population projections for 2040 ranged from a high of 15,254 (high growth scenario) and a low of 9,782 (low growth). A variety of population projection methodologies were completed and the average 2030 projection was 9,299 and 12,277 for 2040. The average 2030 and 2040 population projections were used to calculate future demand estimates for Parkville elsewhere in the plan. Projection Methodology 2019 2030 2040 Avg Annual % Change 6,724 8,883 11,489 Hamilton Perry 6,724 8,682 10,777 Simple Linear 6,724 8,301 9,782 Simple Geometric 6,724 10,054 14,418 Simple Exponential 6,724 10,054 14,418 Trend Line Analysis (Linear Growth)6,724 8,345 9,805 Trend Line Analysis (Geometric Growth)6,724 10,772 15,254 Average 6,724 9,299 12,277 Source: Confluence with inputs from Parkville + U.S. Census Bureau Figure 2.10 Population Projections, 2020-2040 POPULATION PROJECTIONS 30 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over 0.0% 1.3% 2.2% 4.0% 5.5% 6.2% 10.0% 11.1% 6.0% 7.0% 4.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12.2% 4.2% 4.8% 7.8% 7.6% 8.2% 7.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.0% 3.7% 4.5% 6.3% 10.0% 10.3% 7.1% 6.6% 2.6% 4.1% 3.3% 0.6% 1.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Yr Estimates 2019 Age Cohorts 2000 2010 Net Change Cohort Change 0-4 Years 289 280 -9 280 5-9 Years 296 340 11 340 10-14 Years 304 494 190 205 15-19 Years 353 580 227 284 20-24 Years 334 437 103 133 25-29 Years 218 237 19 -116 30-34 Years 198 203 5 -131 35-39 Years 353 275 -78 57 40-44 Years 444 388 -56 190 45-49 Years 352 540 188 187 50-54 Years 321 542 221 98 55-59 Years 219 391 172 39 60-64 Years 130 341 211 20 65-69 Years 88 215 127 -4 70-74 Years 67 127 60 -3 75-79 Years 49 78 29 -10 80-84 Years 25 51 26 -16 85+ Years 19 35 16 -14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 + 2010 Figure 2.11 Age by Sex (2019): Parkville & Platte County Figure 2.12 Age Cohort Change (2000-2010) 8.0% Figure 2.11 shows the age by sex breakdown for Parkville compared to Platte County. Female population is shown in red and males in yellow. Platte County data is shown by comparison with a black dashed line. Parkville exceeds Platte County in the percentage of males age 20 to 24, females age 45 to 54 and males age 50 to 59. Figure 2.12 shows cohort change between 2000 and 2010. The cohort change column shows the change in number of people in the age cohort over a ten-year period. Changes will naturally occur due to births or deaths, but these cohort changes essentially represent in or out migration into Parkville by age cohort. Parkville saw a decline in the number of 25-to-34 year-olds, but this is likely due to college students leaving Parkville after graduation. Ages 0-4 and 5-9 represent new births since the previous Census but there has also been an overall increase in the number of people ages 10 through 19 years. Similarly, there are increases in those age 35 to 49 years. This trend is in line with families with children migrating into Parkville. AGE ANALYSIS Parkville, Missouri 31 Total (All) Households Average Size: 2.68 Owner-Occupied Households Average Size: 2.94 Renter-Occupied Households Average Size: 1.45 Total (All) Households Owner-Occupied Households Renter-Occupied Households Figure 2.13 Household Sizes (2019) One-Person Households Two-Person Households Three-Person Households Four + Person Households 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Owner-Occupied Households 13.9%37.2%15.9%33.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Renter-Occupied Households 72.4%15.2%12.4% Figure 2.14 Owner & Renter Occupied Household Sizes (2019) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Yr Estimates 2019 The overall average household size in Parkville is 2.68 persons. Most households live in owner- occupied housing. The average household size for owner-occupied units is 2.94 residents. Renter- occupied units have an average household size of 1.45 persons. Figure 2.13 depicts the breakdown. Figure 2.14 show the household size breakdown for owner and renter-occupied housing in Parkville. Most (72.4%) of renters live alone. A majority of owner-occupied households (70.2%) live in either two-person households (37.2%) or four+ person households (33.0%). 82.6% 17.4% HOUSEHOLD + FAMILIES 32 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Race Parkville Platte County Count Share Count Share White alone 6,104 90.8%85,900 85.3% Black or African-American alone 251 3.7%6,825 6.8% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 14 0.2%285 0.3% Asian alone 190 2.8%2,757 2.7% Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander alone 7 0.1%480 0.5% Some other race alone 50 0.7%767 0.8% Two or more races 108 1.6%3,668 3.6% Ethnicity Parkville Platte County Count Share Count Share Hispanic or Latino 48 0.7%6,082 6.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Yr Estimates 2019 Figure 2.15 Race / Ethnicity, Parkville & Platte County (2019)Figure 2.15 shows the racial / ethnic breakdown for Parkville and Platte County in 2019. Just over 90% of Parkville residents are white alone. This is above the county-wide level of 85.3%. The next two largest groups are Black of African American alone (3.7%) and Asian alone (2.8%). Platte County has a higher percentage of Black or African American alone (6.8%) than Parkville but a slightly lower percentage of Asian alone (2.7%). Less than 1% of Parkville residents identify as Hispanic or Latino, which is considerably less than Platte County which is 6.0% Hispanic or Latino. RACE / ETHNICITY Parkville, Missouri 33 Figure 2.16 shows educational attainment for Parkville residents aged 25 years and older. A majority of Parkville residents have obtained ether a graduate or professional degree (29.7%) or a bachelor’s degree (38.7%). There is around one- quarter of residents with less than a college degree. As shown in Figure 2.17, educational attainment levels among Parkville residents have a significant impact of median earnings. At the top are graduate or professional degree holders with median earnings of $98,043 whereas high school graduates can expect to earn $53,398. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Less than 9th grade 9th to 12th grade, no diploma High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree Figure 2.16 Educational Attainment (2018) Educational Attainment Median Earnings Population Age 25 Years +$75,390 High School Graduate (or equivalent)$53,398 Some college or associate’s degree $43,850 Bachelor’s degree $88,716 Graduate or professional degree $98,043 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Yr Estimates 2019 Figure 2.17 Median Earnings by Educational Attainment, Parkville (2019) 29.7% 38.7% 4.6% 13.1% 11.9% 0.9% 1.1% EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 34 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Housing in Parkville is generally high value. The overall median owner-occupied home value is $411,600, considerably higher than many neighboring communities and other KC metro area suburbs. Figures 2.18 and 2.19 show the home value breakdown and comparison to other nearby communities, the region and the nation as a whole. Very few homes in Parkville are estimated to be valued below $150,000, which is near to the median for the States of Missouri or Kansas. Home Value Comparison Parkville has a very high median home value of $411,600. Nearby Weatherby Lake, Platte Woods, and Lake Waukomis, by comparison, have significantly lower median values of $367,100, $238,500 and $246,800, respectively. Similarly, affluent Johnson County, Kansas suburban communities such as Shawnee, Overland Park and Olathe also have substantially lower median home values. Figure 2.19 shows the comparison. Home Values Nearly half of all homes in Parkville are estimated to be valued between $300,000 and $499,999. Another quarter of homes in Parkville are estimated to be worth more than $500,000 with 3.8% being valued at $1 million or more. Less than 5% of homes are estimated to have a value below $150,000. 0 100k 200k 300k 400k 500k Parkville Weatherby Lake Platte Woods Lake Waukomis Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City, Kansas Shawnee, Kansas Overland Park, Kansas Olathe, Kansas KC Metro Missouri Kansas United States $411,600 $367,100 $238,500 $246,800 $154,600 $95,600 $237,500 $276,100 $238,100 $183,300 $157,200 $151,900 $217,500 Figure 2.19 Median Home Value Comparison (2019), Parkville & Nearby Areas Figure 2.18 Owner-Occupied Housing Values (2019) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $499,999 $500,000 to $999,999 $1,000,000 or more 3.8% 21.7% 45.7% 16.0% 8.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.0% HOUSING Parkville, Missouri 35 Housing costs vary significantly between renters and homeowners in Parkville. Median rent for renter is $714. The median monthly housing costs for homeowners with a mortgage is $2,529. Yet, despite this housing cost difference, substantially more renters are cost burdened for housing. Cost burdened for housing occurs when more than 30% of household income goes toward rent or housing costs. Nearly 60% of renters are cost burdened compared to the roughly 17% of homeowners. Median Rent: $714 $500 - $999 $1,000 - $1,499 $2,500 - $2,999 $3,000 or more 2.7% 5.5% 81.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Less than 15% 15% to 19.9% 20% to 24.9% 25% to 29.9% 30% to 34.9% 35% or more Figure 2.20 Gross Rent (2019) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Less than $500 $500 to $999 $1,000 to $1,499 $1,500 to $1,999 $2,000 to $2,499 $2,500 to $2,999 $3,000 or more Figure 2.22 Owner-Occupied Monthly Housing Costs (2019) Figure 2.21 Rent as % of Household Income (2019) 10.2% Gross Rent 35.7% 23.6% 3.8% 5.2% 21.4% 10.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Less than 20% 20% to 24.9% 25% to 29.9% 30% to 34.9% 35% or more Owner-Occupied Housing Units with a Mortgage Figure 2.23 Monthly Housing Costs as % of Household Income (2019) 10.2% Median Monthly Housing Costs: $2,529 27.4% 24.0% 28.4% 10.9% 8.4% 0.9% 0.0% 7.2% 6.9% 14.2% 61.5% Nearly 62% of homeowners spend less than 20% of household income on housing costs. Given the presence of Park University in Parkville, it may be likely that a large number of renters are students who generally have lower incomes. HOUSING COSTS 36 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.25 Income Density (2018) 2014-2018 ACSLOW MEDIUM HIGH Area Median Household Income Parkville $95,430 Five Mile Radius $61,555 Ten Mile Radius $55,640 Platte + Clay Counties $72,195 Kansas City Metro Area $64,440 Source: Esri 2020 Figure 2.24 Median Household Income by Area (2019) Figure 2.25 shows income density within the Kansas City region. This is calculated by multiplying the total number of households by the average household income, giving a sum of the total household income at the census tract level. This analysis shows that Parkville and the surrounding area has a small concentration of high-earning households but is somewhat isolated in comparison with other communities along Interstate 435, including Shawnee, Lenexa, and Overland Park. Income density supports retail spending, and a greater concentration of high-income households indicates the ability to support more retail. Median household income in Parkville is $95,430, much higher than that in the other geographies. HOUSEHOLD INCOME + INCOME DENSITY Parkville, Missouri 37 Incomes in Parkville are generally high. The overall median household income was estimated at $136,389 in 2019. For owner-occupied households it was even higher at $161,086. Renters were substantially lower at $36,579; however, renters make up only a small percentage of Parkville residents. Figures 2.26-2.28 show the breakdown and comparison. Incomes in Parkville The income bracket with the highest percentage of Parkville residents is those earning $200,000 or more, which account for 31% of the population. The second largest income bracket is $100,000 to $149,999 with around 21% of residents. Median Household Income Comparison The median household income in Parkville in 2019 was $136,389. This is higher than nearby Weatherby Lake ($127,321) and significantly higher than affluent Johnson County, Kansas suburbs. $0 $40,000 $80,000 $120,000 $160,000 Occupied Households (all) Owner-Occupied Households Renter-Occupied Households $136,389 $161,087 $36,579 Figure 2.26 Median Household Income by Housing Tenure (2019) Figure 2.27 Households by Income Bracket (2019) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%35% Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or more 31.0% 12.9% 20.6% 5.5% 8.2% 10.6% 3.4% 6.2% 0.0% 1.5% Figure 2.28 Median Household Income Comparison (2019) 0 $40,000 $80,000 $120,000 $160,000 Parkville Weatherby Lake Platte Woods Lake Waukomis Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City, Kansas Shawnee, Kansas Overland Park, Kansas Olathe, Kansas KC Metro Missouri Kansas United States $136,389 $127,321 $77,708 $82,222 $54,194 $46,665 $87,120 $86,487 $90,435 $66,632 $55,461 $59,597 $62,843 INCOMES 38 Parkville 2040 Master Plan MARKET ANALYSISFOCUS AREAS II The Market Analysis covers the economic conditions facing Parkville by land use The Market Analysis looks at the market conditions in Parkville now and what they may look like in the future based on current trends. The development pattern by land use is reviewed. Regional and local market conditions by development type are discussed. Demand estimates by development type for Parkville are provided. Parkville, Missouri 39 Figure 2.29 15 and 30 Minute Drive-TIme Boundaries 15 MINUTES 30 MINUTES POINT OF ORIGIN The City of Parkville is located in the northwest quadrant of the Kansas City metro area, on the southern edge of Platte County. Its nearest neighbors are unincorporated Platte County, Kansas City (MO), Weatherby Lake, and Riverside. Kansas City (KS) and the state of Kansas are located to the south, across the river and wide flood plain. As shown in Figure 2.29, transportation to and from Parkville is hindered by the river and flood plain and facilitated by the interstate network, particularly Interstate 635 to the south, Interstate 435 to the west, and Interstate 29 to the east. Downtown Kansas City is reachable in about a 15-minute drive. Much of the central and northern metropolitan region is accessible within a 30-minute drive, including the airport, central Kansas City (MO), and Johnson County. Drive times are important because they relate to trade areas. For some uses, convenience is key. This includes daily needs shopping, such as groceries and fuel, and consumers tend to visit the locations that are most convenient. People are generally willing to travel further to work (though tolerance for commute time varies from household to house) and to visit regional retail and entertainment destinations. Therefore, Parkville’s location relative to other population, employment, and retail concentrations will determine its competitive advantage for different kinds of development. DRIVE TIMES + MARKET AREAS 40 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.30 2018 Employment Density by Census Tract + Top 25 Work Destination Census Tracts for Parkville Residents LOW MEDIUM HIGH 2014 - 2018 ACS Figure 2.30 shows employment density in the Kansas City metro area and the top 25 census tracts where Parkville residents work. For the most part, Parkville residents work in other locations in Platte and Clay county and in and around downtown Kansas City. Some make longer commutes to Lenexa and Overland Park, but this is a small percentage of total commuters. Only a small percentage of Parkville residents also work in the city. Of the city’s approximately 3,500 workers, only about 4% (approximately 150) also live in Parkville. The remaining 96%, or about 3,400 people, come from different communities to work in the city. Overall, Parkville’s population increases during the day, with more workers coming in (3,400 workers) than workers leaving the city (about 2,900 workers). The city’s largest employer is Park University, which employs about 500 people, followed by Engaged Companies (175 employees) and The National Golf Club of Kansas City (150 employees). EMPLOYMENT DENSITY + JOB LOCATIONS Parkville, Missouri 41 Figure 2.32 Sale Price of Recently Listed and Sold Homes in Platte + Clay County $225,000 or Less $225,001 - $320,000 $320,001 - $390,000 $390,001 - $500,000 $500,001 or More Redfin (2020) $93 $123 $134 $141 $150 $168 $174 $189 Gladstone Platte City Liberty Kansas City Unincorp. Platte County Parkville Riverside Weatherby Lake In light of the household income and income density characteristics discussed on the previous page, an analysis of recently sold and for-sale homes shows that Parkville and the immediate area is home to high-value single family housing, much of it in the $390,000 and up range. Figure 2.31 below shows average price per square foot for the homes shown on the map. On average, homes in Parkville sold for $168 per square foot, which is higher than the average for most of the nearby communities. Figure 2.31 Price per Square Foot Recently Listed and Sold homes Platte + Clay County SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING + SALE PRICES 42 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.34 Commercial Building Locations Multifamily Retail Office Industrial CoStar (2020) Development Type Units or Square Feet Before 2000 Units or Square Feet Since 2000 Total Units or Square Feet Multifamily 394 SF 0 SF 394 SF Retail 145,000 SF 244,500 SF 389,500 SF Office 116,900 SF 128,000 SF 244,900 SF Industrial 671,300 SF 49,900 SF 721,200 SF Source: CoStar 2020 Figure 2.33 Total Inventory (Square Feet) Parkville has three major nodes of commercial development. The first and oldest is the historic downtown, which contains a mix of retail and office buildings in a walkable environment. The second node is near the intersection of Highway 9 and Highway 45. This is where the greatest concentration of daily needs shopping can be found, as well as an industrial cluster and offices. The third node is emerging at the Interstate 435 and Highway 45 interchange, where the Creekside development is adding a mix of uses, including recreational uses, retail, and industrial. COMMERCIAL LAND USE OVERVIEW Parkville, Missouri 43 Figure 2.35 Multifamily + Retail Developments Multifamily Retail CoStar (2020) Downtown Parkville Parkville CommonsThe Meadows at Creekside Mark IV Retail There are nearly a half million square feet of retail in Parkville, approximately 67 square feet per resident. Over half of retail (63%) square footage has been added since 2000. The largest retailer is Price Chopper (72,000 square feet), within the 250,000 square foot Parkville Commons shopping center, which began construction in 2004 and has added space since then. Historic downtown Parkville is the city’s other major retail concentration and hosts a collection of independent retailers and restaurants. Multifamily There are 394 multifamily units in Parkville, all of which were built prior to 2000. The largest apartment property is Mark IV, which has 168 units and was built in 1973. Immediately adjacent to Parkville in unincorporated Platte County, the Links at Parkville Apartments is a 244-unit property completed in 2016. In 2020, the Meadows at Creekside added 212 apartment units. RETAIL + MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT 44 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.36 Office + Industrial Developments Office Industrial CoStar (2020) Parkville Commercial Underground Bell Road Industrial Park Six@Park eShipping Downtown Parkville + English Landing Center Office There is nearly 250,000 square feet of office space within Parkville, and about 50% of it was added since 2000. The largest office space within Parkville is Six At Park, a 57,000 square foot, five-story Class A office building overlooking the Missouri River in downtown Parkville opening in 2020. About 50,000 square feet of office space is found in the English Landing Center, a collection of multi-tenant office buildings just south of the River Road. The largest single-tenant office building within Parkville is the 34,000 square foot eShipping office located on Tom Watson Parkway. Industrial Industrial space is concentrated within the Bell Road industrial park, just west of the Parkville Commons shopping center and consists mostly of warehousing with limited light industrial use. One of the most unique industrial areas in the U.S. is also found in Parkville. Parkville Commercial Underground is a former limestone mine on the campus of Park University, and now leases 385,000 square feet of commercial space used for warehousing, distribution, and other light industrial uses. In 2021, Capital Electric will add 72,800 sq. ft. of office and warehouse space. Capital Electric OFFICE + INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT Parkville, Missouri 45 Creekside Creekside is large-scale, 300-acre project being developed at the intersection of Interstate 435 and Missouri State Highway 45 on land that the city annexed in 2000. The multi-phase project is planned for completion in 2025 and will include a variety of developments that will draw visitors and new residents to Parkville. A six-field youth baseball complex will anchor a larger development featuring four hotels to serve visitors, most from out of town, as well as restaurants and retail space that will serve a regional and local clientele. Hotels will likely also serve business travelers to some degree. Residential development will include 215 single-family homes, 272 townhomes, and 366 apartments, some of which are under construction, as well as public green space with walking trails. This development is expected to draw in new residents from other communities in the metro area, especially households employed in Platte and Clay Counties or Downtown Kansas City. The southwestern portion of Creekside will feature a 72,800 sq. ft. building for office and warehouse space for the headquarters of Capital Electric Line Builders, Inc. Creekside is currently approved, with some portions complete or under construction. The 300-acre development is planned for completion in 2025. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN PARKVILLE 46 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.38 Regional Multifamily New Construction Since 2000 Existing Under Construction Proposed CoStar (2020) Downtown + Midtown Kansas City West 135th Street MO Hwy 152 Area Existing Under Construction Units % of Total Units % of Total Parkville --412 2% Five-Mile Radius 2,475 5%276 1% Platte + Clay Counties 9,143 17%995 5% Jackson, Johnson + Wyandotte Counties 41,499 78%17,380 91% Total 53,117 19,063 Source: CoStar 2020 Figure 2.37 Multifamily Construction Since 2000 Figure 2.38 shows where new multifamily construction has taken place since 2000. Concentrations of new multifamily housing have emerged in Downtown and Midtown Kansas City, as well as along West 135th Street in southern Johnson County and, closer to Parkville, along Missouri Highway 152 in Platte and Clay Counties. Overall, the area within the five-mile radius shown in the map at right has seen five percent of new multifamily construction, which is roughly proportionate to the areas share of the regional population and has added nearly 2,500 apartment units over the past two decades. Within Parkville, 412 new units are planned as part of the Creekside development, and will be the first new apartment units in Parkville since before 2000. Elsewhere in the five mile radius, there are currently 276 units under construction. REGIONAL MULTIFAMILY MARKET Parkville, Missouri 47 Figure 2.40 Multifamily Occupancy 2000 - 2020 YTD Figure 2.41 Average Asking Rent Price per Unit 2000 - 2020 YTD Figure 2.39 Rent per Square Foot by County - Built 2000 or later $1.10 $1.22 $1.47 $1.54 $1.59 $0.91 $1.04 $1.17 $1.33 $1.37 $0.87 $0.95 $1.08 $1.16 $1.16 Wyandotte Clay Platte Jackson Johnson 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bdrm CoStar (2020) 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) Figures 2.40-2.41 at right show local and regional multifamily trends since 2000. Occupancy in both areas has fluctuated over time between about 88 percent in the early 2000s and 94 percent more recently. Occupancy of multifamily units can be influenced by multiple factors, most notably rental supply, as well as macroeconomic conditions, and 95 percent is typically considered full occupancy. Average asking rent price has remained largely stable over time, increasing from about $800 in 2000 to over $1,000 in 2020, roughly keeping pace with inflation during this time period. This indicates that supply has kept up with demand, and there is not a drastic over- or under-supply of units. Figure 2.39 below shows a comparison of rent per square foot across counties. Overall, rents in Platte County are priced toward the upper middle of the regional market, with price per square foot ranging from $1.08 to $1.47. REGIONAL MULTIFAMILY MARKET 48 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.43 Regional Retail New Construction Since 2000 Existing Under Construction Proposed CoStar (2020) Liberty Triangle I-70 + I-470 I-70 + I-435 West 135th St. Corridor Zona Rosa Area Existing Under Construction Sq. Ft.% of Total Sq. Ft.% of Total Parkville 244,500 0%0 0% Five-Mile Radius 2,608,600 8%124,600 3% Platte + Clay Counties 3,745,900 12%740,400 16% Jackson, Johnson + Wyandotte Counties 24,479,100 79%3,712,300 81% Total 31,078,100 4,577,300 Source: CoStar 2020 Figure 2.42 Retail Construction Since 2000 Figure 2.43 shows the location of new retail construction in the Kansas City area since 2000. Major recent retail concentrations include the I-70 and I-470 interchange in Independence, Liberty Triangle in Liberty, the I-70 and I-435 interchange in Kansas City, Kansas, the West 135th Street corridor in Olathe and Overland Park, Kansas, and Zona Rosa at the I-29 and Missouri Highway 152 interchange in Kansas City, Missouri and also within the five-mile radius. In total, the region has added over 31 million square feet of retail space in the past two decades, with about eight percent of the region’s total added within the five-mile radius. REGIONAL RETAIL MARKET Parkville, Missouri 49 Figure 2.44 Regional Occupancy 2000 - 2020 Figure 2.45 Average Asking Rent Price per Square Foot 2000 - 2020 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00 Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) Figures 2.44 - 2.45 show local and regional retail occupancy and rent cost trends since 2006. Retail occupancy has hovered around 92% to 94% in the Kansas City Metro Area. Occupancy fluctuated to a greater degree within the five-mile radius between about 89% and 96% percent. Overall, retail occupancy has been healthy in recent years, though the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are expected to have lasting and disruptive effects, the extent of which are currently unknown, and which are expected to have a negative effect on retail occupancy. Retail rents have also shown stability since 2006, oscillating between about $12.00 and $14.00 per square foot in the Kansas City metro area and between $14.00 and $16.00 within the five-mile radius. However, it should be noted that rent price per square foot over time should increase slightly to account for the effects of inflation. Because rents have remained largely flat, the rent price per square foot has decreased slightly over time, which may indicate a slight oversupply of some types of retail. REGIONAL + LOCAL RETAIL MARKET 50 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.47 Regional Office New Construction Since 2000 Existing Under Construction Proposed CoStar (2020) Downtown + Midtown Kansas City Cerner Business Campus Overland Park Area Existing Under Construction Sq. Ft.% of Total Sq. Ft.% of Total Parkville 128,000 0%0 0% Five-Mile Radius 372,000 1%33,000 0% Platte + Clay Counties 2,248,600 8%433,000 6% Jackson, Johnson + Wyandotte Counties 23,995,800 91%6,658,300 93% Total 26,744,500 7,124,300 Source: CoStar 2020 Figure 2.46 Office Construction Since 2000 Figure 2.47 shows the location of new office construction in the Kansas City area since 2000. Office construction tends to show some clustering, with major office additions taking place in and near Downtown and Midtown Kansas City, traditionally the region’s central business district. Other major additions include the Cerner Business Campus in Kansas City and Overland Park along I-435 and Metcalf Avenue. Since 2000, the region has added over 26 million square feet of office space, with about one percent located in scattered locations within Parkville and the five- mile radius as shown in Figure 2.47. REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET Parkville, Missouri 51 Figure 2.48 Office Occupancy 2000 - 2020 Figure 2.49 Average Asking Rent Price per Square Foot 2000 - 2020 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) $- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) Figures 2.48 and 2.49 show local and regional office occupancy and rent cost trends since 2000. Within the metro area, office occupancy has decreased from a high of about 96% to about 89% in recent years, while in the five-mile radius, it has decreased from about 96% to 85%. Both geographies experienced their lowest occupancy in 2011-2012. The office sector is also expected to undergo shifts due to Covid-19, the magnitude of which is not currently known, but will likely result in lower occupancy as office users reevaluate their space needs. Cost per square foot for office space rentals has remained largely stable in the $16.00 to $18.00 per square foot range in both geographies since about 2009. Similar to retail rent rates, stable office rents have not increased at the same pace as inflation, and therefore indicate that some office types may be slightly oversupplied. REGIONAL + LOCAL OFFICE MARKET 52 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.51 Regional Industrial New Construction Since 2000 Existing Under Construction Proposed CoStar (2020) Northeast Industrial AreaWest Bottoms I-35 Corridor Riverside KCI Southview Commerce CenterOlathe / Gardner Area Existing Under Construction Sq. Ft.% of Total Sq. Ft.% of Total Parkville 49,900 0%72,800 .5% Five-Mile Radius 3,776,400 6%475,900 3% Platte + Clay Counties 11,228,900 16%4,695,600 29% Jackson, Johnson + Wyandotte Counties 53,499,800 78%11,163,400 68% Total 68,555,000 16,407,700 Source: CoStar 2020 Figure 2.50 Industrial Construction Since 2000 Figure 2.51 shows the location of new industrial construction in the Kansas City area since 2000. Unlike retail and office development, industrial development tends to locate near floodplains and near transportation infrastructure such as interstates, highways, railways, and airports. Industrial development took place in many locations throughout the metro area, including along the Missouri and Kansas Rivers, along the I-35 corridor, in southern Jackson and Johnson Counties, and near Kansas City International Airport. The metro area added over 68 million square feet of industrial space since 2000, with 6% located in Parkville or within the five-mile radius. REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL MARKET Parkville, Missouri 53 Figure 2.52 Industrial Occupancy 2000 - 2020 Figure 2.53 Average Asking Rent Price per Square Foot 2000 - 2020 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) $- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 Five-Mile Radius Kansas City Metro Area CoStar (2020) Figures 2.52 and 2.53 show local and regional industrial occupancy and rent cost trends since 2000. Within the metro area, industrial occupancy has remained largely stable in the 92%-97% range over time, while in the five-mile radius, it varied between a low of 85% in 2009 to a high of about 96% currently. The industrial sector, particularly the warehousing and distribution subsectors, are expected to undergo shifts due to Covid-19, the magnitude of which is not currently known, but will likely result in a greater need for warehousing space as retail and other purchasing shifts to an online format. Cost per square foot for office space rentals has remained largely stable over the past two decades, hovering in the $3.50 to $4.00 range in the metro area and decreasing from $5.50 to about $4.00 to $4.50 in the five-mile radius. Over time, rent price per square foot has followed a very slight upward trend in the metro area, which suggests that the supply of new space is meeting demand. REGIONAL + LOCAL INDUSTRIAL MARKET 54 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.54 Median Square Feet by Year - New Single Family Housing 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 U.S. Census Bureau (2020) Area 2 Bedrooms or Less 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms or More 1980 14%64%22% 1990 11%56%32% 2000 9%52%40% 2010 7%52%41% 2019 6%45%49% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 - 2019 Table 2.55 Single Family Homes by Number of Bedrooms Over Time The market for different types of development in Parkville is shaped by regional and national market trends. Nationwide, the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically affected daily life and decision- making for a still-undetermined length of time. Some of the changes to where people live, work, shop, and enjoy recreational activities may become permanent, depending on how circumstances evolve. Residential Trends The average size of housing has decreased after a long period of increase beginning in the 1980s. In 2019, new single-family homes had a median floor area of about 2,300 square feet, down from a high of about 2,470 in 2015. For new apartments, median floor area in 2019 was about 1,075 square feet, down from a high of nearly 1,200 square feet in 2007. Not surprisingly, the growth in square footage correlates with an increase in the number of bedrooms. In 1980, only about one-fifth of single-family homes had four or more bedrooms, but by 2019, nearly half of all homes have four or more bedrooms. At the same time, smaller homes, with two or fewer bedrooms, make up a smaller proportion of the total new housing stock, accounting for only six percent of new homes. MARKET TRENDS Parkville, Missouri 55 Figure 2.56 Median Square Feet by Year - New Single Family Housing Figure 2.57 Median Lot Size by Square Foot by Year - New Single Family Housing 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 U.S. Census Bureau (2020) 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 U.S. Census Bureau (2020) Residential Trends (Cont.) At the same time that interior living space has begun to decrease, median lot size has also shown a downward trend in recent years. The median single-family lot measured about 7,820 square feet in 2019, down from a high of 10,000 square feet in 1990 and 10,125 square feet in 1976. Whether Covid-19 affects this trend toward smaller, more compact housing in the long run remains to be seen. At the moment, Americans are spending more time at home than ever before. Where many people once worked and entertained themselves outside of the home, now many of these functions are temporarily relegated to their home location. If working from home becomes a more permanent part of American life, it could affect residential construction in two ways. First, there could be greater demand for larger housing units to accommodate one or more home offices, as well as demand for more indoor and outdoor recreational space, particularly for households with children. Secondly, for households that no longer need to commute, there could be greater demand for housing at greater distances from the workplace, including suburban, exurban, and rural housing, as well as housing in lower cost-of-living municipalities and urban areas. MARKET TRENDS 56 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.58 Online Sales as a Proportion of Total Sales 2000 - 2020 U.S. Census Bureau (2020) Retail Trends Retail is currently undergoing a rapid evolution due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several trends that were already underway have accelerated, including: The rise of online shopping. As shown in Figure 2.58, online shopping as a percentage of total retail sales has grown steadily since 2000, and now accounts for about 11% of total sales. Many retailers now offer online shopping in addition to traditional brick-and-mortar locations, and this trend is expected to continue. The Covid-19 pandemic created a massive surge in demand for online shopping that will likely continue into the near future. The decline of malls and long-standing retailers. Malls and traditional mall retailers have been struggling in recent years. Decreased activity at large anchor department stores has had a negative effect on smaller mall retailers who depend on foot traffic, with the result that many mall retailers have closed stores or even filed for bankruptcy over the past five years. The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to increase mall vacancies and test the solvency of malls and mall retailers. Increased interest in independent, craft, and local establishments. A number of movements have led to increased demand for local and craft products, including the farm-to-table movement, the rise in craft brewing and other artisan food and beverage production, an increase in food halls and farmers’ markets, as well as new markets for independent businesses made possible by online platforms such as Etsy and social media. A shift in spending away from consumer goods. The rise of the “experience economy” means that some households prefer to spend more on experiences and less on consumer goods than once before, which has negative implications for traditional retailers, but has a positive effect on the service industry, particularly food service, travel services, and beauty and other personal services. In recent years, new entertainment and recreational venues have emerged to capture this market for experiences. Rapid disruption due to Covid-19. With the exception of online retail, and a handful of segments, including home improvement and grocery stores, Covid-19 has caused spending at retailers and service providers to plummet to levels that put many businesses in jeopardy of permanently closing. Large gathering places, such as malls, theme parks, movie theaters, and entertainment districts are particularly vulnerable. Tourist- and visitor-focused establishments are also at high risk until travel can safely resume. The extent of the pandemic’s effects on retailers, service providers, and recreational venues is still unknown, but will bring about a great deal of loss and change in the retail sector. COMMERCIAL MARKET TRENDS Parkville, Missouri 57 Figure 2.59 Percent of Workers That Have Ever Teleworked 31% 49% 59%62% March 13, 2020 March 16, 2020 March 30, 2020 April 6, 2020 Gallup (2020) Office Trends Like retail, the office sector is also expected to undergo a transformation due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Some office sectors, such as medical offices and other service providers, are expected to rebound once the public feels safe to resume normal visits. However, the traditional office sector and emerging coworking sector, are likely to undergo a shift as users reevaluate their space needs. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, there was a downward trend in the amount of office space per employee, with a rise in “open floorplan” layouts and seating. The most notable development was the rise of coworking spaces, and other spaces to promote innovation and collaboration. Both of these approaches are now in question for the foreseeable future but may eventually gain traction with the development of a Covid-19 vaccine. Another major development has been the rapid shift to telework, which has led some companies to rethink the role of the office entirely and could result in a decreased demand for office space. The graph at right shows the speed and magnitude of employees shifting to telework, with an increase of 31% in the number of respondents reporting ever having teleworked in less than a month. Though many workers may return to the office once conditions change, a number of employees may continue to work from home or another off-site location. Industrial Trends The industrial sector, particularly the wholesale, transportation, and distribution subsectors, is one of the few market segments being buoyed by the Covid-19 pandemic, as consumers have shifted quickly to fulfilling many household needs through online shopping, and will likely continue to do so in the future. The nature of this industry means that location relative to major transportation nodes and networks is key. Within the manufacturing subsector, the United States is in the process of a long shift away from labor-intensive assembly lines and manufacturing, which has largely been offshored and/or automated. However, advanced manufacturing still plays a large role in the national economy and generates demand for new, technologically advanced industrial space. COMMERCIAL MARKET TRENDS 58 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.60 Market Area CoStar (2020) Residential demand for Parkville can be estimated as a function of projected population growth across a wider surrounding Market Area. As job growth in metropolitan Kansas City expands over the coming decade and beyond, new households will be created, either through natural increase or net in-migration. For a variety of reasons, including employment proximity, familiarity, and personal preference, some portion of this growth will be drawn to the Parkville area to buy or rent housing. Because location is key, new Parkville housing will compete for this demand most heavily with other developments in Parkville and the surrounding communities (primarily unincorporated areas of southern Platte County). It will continue to draw in households based on scenic natural setting, the school district, low crime rate, and attractive housing. The Market Area shown in Figure 2.60 has added residents (and households) at an average rate of 1.7% for the decade. RESIDENTIAL DEMAND Parkville, Missouri 59 Figure 2.61 Market Area Population Growth (2010 - 2019) Figure 2.62 10-Year Market Area Residential Demand by Income 1.3%1.1%0.9%1.0% 1.4% 1.9%2.2% 2.7%3.1% 87,819 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Yea r O v e r Y e a r G r o w t h R a t e Pop u l a t i o n 136 243 402 434 502 316 257 36 59 15 43 134 234 502 474 1,030 690 1,129 Up to $15K $15K - $25K $25K - $35K $35K - $50K $50K - $75K $75K - $100K $100K - $150K $150K - $200K $200K+ Units Household Income Rental Owner Rental: 2,387 Owner:4,250 Total: 6,637 Assuming the residential Market Area continues its 2010-2019 pace of 1.66% annual household growth, housing demand will total just over 6,600 units in the coming decade. Assuming further that household income distribution remains roughly the same (in today’s dollars) and patterns of owning vs. renting stay constant (approx. 36% renter overall), that future demand will be distributed according to the figure shown here – with most demand coming from households earning over $50,000. Parkville has in recent decades captured approximately 7% of growth in this Market Area. Given the development momentum and favorable location of the Creekside area, it is reasonable to assume that this capture will increase to 10% or higher in the coming years – or approximately 650- 700 units by 2030. REGIONAL + LOCAL MULTIFAMILY SUPPLY + DEMAND 60 Parkville 2040 Master Plan Physical Profile describes the on the ground conditions of Parkville The Physical Profile section discusses the existing land use profile of Parkville along with the location of residential land. Environmental factors such as floodplain, slopes, streams, and watersheds are also highlighted and mapped. The existing transportation system is also shown in this section. PHYSICAL PROFILEFOCUS AREAS III Parkville, Missouri 61 Land Use Total Acres Share Open Space 5,658.2 65.1% Low-Density Residential 1,204.3 13.8% Parks & Recreation 1,048.3 12.1% Developing 273.4 3.1% Commercial 236.1 2.7% Industrial 142.9 1.6% Multi-Family Residential 96.6 1.1% Downtown 23.7 0.3% TOTAL 12.8 0.1% Source: Confluence, with inputs from Parkville and Platte County Figure 2.63 Existing Land Use, Parkville (2020) Figure 2.64 Existing Land Use Map Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits Single-Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Downtown Open Space Parks & Recreation Public / Semi-Public Commercial Industrial NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy EXISTING LAND USE IN PARKVILLE 62 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.65 is a map showing the residential areas of Parkville in 2020. Most of the residential land in Parkville is on the eastern half of the community. There are portions of a low-density subdivision that fall within the city limits. Overall, the western half remains more undeveloped, however, there a few projects with residential land in development. The yellow land shows the lower density residential land that includes mainly single- family detached homes. Multi-family residential land is shown in orange and includes housing options such as apartments, townhomes or condominiums. Single-Family Residential is by far the dominant housing type and accounts for 98% of residential land in Parkville today. Figure 2.65 Existing Residential Land Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line Single-Family Residential Multi-Family Residential NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy EXISTING RESIDENTIAL LAND Parkville, Missouri 63 Floodplain is typically found at low-lying areas near streams, lakes or oceans that become inundated with water during rain events, snow melt or other high-water events. Figure 2.66 shows the 100- and 500-year floodplain in Parkville. 100-Year & 500-Year Floodplain One-hundred-year floodplains are those areas of land that have an annual flood probability of 1% in any given year. Likewise, five-hundred-year floodplains are those areas of land that have an annual flood probability of 0.5% in any given year. Parkville’s Floodplain Parkville is no stranger to flood events given its proximity to the Missouri River. A large swath of the southern half of Parkville is floodplain. The area between downtown Parkville and the Missouri River is parkland (English Landing Parking and Platte Landing Park), which is able to help absorb and manage flooding while also providing a community benefit. Generally, floodplains should be kept undeveloped as open space or for parks and recreation. When floodplain has permeable surfaces such as grass or shrubs it is better able to absorb, slow and filter floodwater. Keeping floodplain mostly undeveloped also reduces the incidence of property damage from flooding events. Floodplains are often ecologically rich areas that are home to a wide variety of flora and fauna. Figure 2.66 Floodplain Map Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line 100-Year Floodplain 500-Year Floodplain NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy FLOODPLAIN 64 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.67 shows the results of the slope analysis for the Parkville area. The yellow and green areas have lower slopes and includes land that is flatter. These areas are most suitable for new development. The orange and red areas have higher slopes. The blue areas show floodplain and existing waterbodies. Areas with high slope are sensitive ecological environments that can be vulnerable to erosion which can lead to a loss of topsoil and water quality degradation. Slope erosion can also lead to wildlife habitat loss, can alter drainage patterns and intensify flooding. Generally, new development should avoid areas with steep slopes. Any development that does occur in areas with steeper slopes should be carefully and sensitively designed to prevent slope erosion. Figure 2.67 Slope Map Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line Low Slope High Slope Floodplain / Water NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy SLOPES Parkville, Missouri 65 Figure 2.68 shows the watersheds and streams for the Parkville area. The largest waterbody in the Parkville area is clearly the Missouri River which runs along the southern boundary of the community. There are several other streams that run through the community including: • Rush Creek • Naylor Creek • Burlington Creek Stream Types There are several ways to classify streams, but two common ways are by permanency and includes perennial and intermittent streams. Perennial Streams, often referred to as type 1 streams, are those that exist almost all of the year including during times of extreme drought. Type 2 streams, often called intermittent streams, are those streams that exist most of the time except in cases of extreme drought. Figure 2.68 Streams Map Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line Missouri River Type 1 - Perennial Stream Type 2 - Intermittent Stream NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy Rus h C r e e k Bur l i n g t o n C r e e k Wh i t e A l o e B a r n c h Rush Creek Bru s h C r e e k Bru s h C r e e k STREAMS 66 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.69 show the location of parks and recreation land in Parkville. Currently, Parkville maintains nine (9) parks: • Adams Park • English Landing Park • Gresham Memorial Spirit Fountain Park • Parkville Nature Sanctuary • Platte Landing Park • Downtown Pocket Park • Sullivan Nature Sanctuary • Watkins Park • White Allow Creek Conservation Area In addition to public parks, Parkville has the National Golf Club of Kansas City, a private 18-hole golf course designed by the former professional golfer, Tom Watson. The Riss Lake gated community located south of Tom Watson Parkway and east of Highway 9 has a large private lake and pool house as well as a park. Figure 2.69 Parks Map Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line Missouri River Parks Golf Course NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy PARKS IN PARKVILLE Parkville, Missouri 67 Combined, the parks provide 299.45 acres of parkland for Parkville residents. The majority of this park acreage comes from Platte Landing Park (133 acres), the White Allow Creek Conservation Area (55.4 acres) and English Landing Park (53.6 acres) adjacent to the Missouri River. Figure 2.70 shows the total park acres by park. Park level of service standards (LOS) are based on total park acres available per 1,000 residents. Most cities should aim to have at least 10.5 acres per 1,000 residents. Based on Parkville’s 2019 population estimate of 6,724, the current LOS for Parkville is 44.53 acres per 1,000 residents, far exceeding the recommended LOS. Figure 2.71 shows the park demand estimates based on the average 2030 and 2040 growth projections of 9,299 and 12,277, respectively. Parkville will still technically meet the LOS standard in 2040 without adding additional park space. However, since must of this park acre total comes from two large regional parks on the edge of town (English Landing Park and Platte Landing Park) and a conservation area, care should still be taken to encourage neighborhood parks as new residential areas are developed over time so new residents are adequately served by parks. Park Name Total Acres Category Adams Park 0.32 Neighborhood English Landing Park 53.60 Community Gresham Memorial Spirit Fountain Park 0.84 Special Use Parkville Nature Sanctuary 38.96 Conservation Platte Landing Park 133.58 Community Pocket Park 0.05 Special Use Sullivan Nature Sanctuary 15.52 Conservation Watkins Park 1.20 Neighborhood White Alloe Creek Conservation Area 55.39 Conservation TOTAL 299.45 Figure 2.70 Existing Land Use, Parkville (2020) Park Name Existing Acres Needed Acres Existing Park Acres 299.45 - Existing LOS 44.53 0.0 Recommended LOS 10.5 - 2030 Demand Acres 97.6 0.0 2040 Demand Acres 128.9 0.0 Figure 2.71 Existing Land Use, Parkville (2020) 2019 Population Estimate 6,724 Average 2030 Population Projection 9,299 Average 2040 Population Projection 12,277 Figure 2.72 Parkville Existing + Future Population Estimates PARKS LEVEL OF SERVICE 68 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Figure 2.73 Walk-Time Analysis for Parks, Parkville, Missouri (2020)A 5-, 10- and 15-minute walk time analysis for park access in Parkville is shown in Figure 2.73. A walk time analysis for public facilities only did reveal some deficits within the residential areas of Parkville. To account for the effective park walkability access for residents living in gated communities or around the National Golf Course of Kansas City neighborhood, the walk time analysis included both public and private recreation facilities. Much of the residential parts of Parkville have walkable park access. Commercial areas along Highway 45 are not currently walkable to parks so any redevelopment should include some sort of green space component and sidewalk / trail expansion to provide access to park and green space. Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits County Line Missouri River Parks Golf Course PARK WALK TIME ANALYSIS Parkville, Missouri 69 The community’s economic and social systems depend on the ability to transport people and goods. Long-range planning helps ensure the transportation network is able to meet existing transportation needs, expand efficiently to manage future growth, and remain consistent with the Land Use Plan. Roadways Parkville is served by a network of roadways that are generally bordered by two major Interstate highways to the east (I-29) and west (I-435) of the community. Each roadway is identified by functional classification, which is based on the type of land uses and level of traffic movement the roadway is intended to serve. Roadway classifications outline the right-of-way and design standards to aid in construction. The City of Parkville currently uses APWA standards for roadway design, but context appropriate decisions may be needed based on the community’s character and topography. Due to the unique shape of the city limits, coordination with adjacent jurisdictions, such as Platte County and the City of Kansas City, Missouri, is critical to providing connectivity and consistency for users. Figure 2.74 Existing Roadways Map Parkville City Limits Nearby City Limits Interstate Freeway Expressway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Local NW R i v e r R d 435 NW River Rd Eas t S t 435 9 9 45 45 Tom Watson Pkwy TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS 70 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW The functional classification hierarchy for Parkville includes interstate, expressway, major arterial, minor arterial, collector, and local roadways. Characteristics that generally define the functional classification of roadways encompass connectivity, number of travel lanes, traffic volume, speed, and degree of access. Interstate A multi-lane roadway intended to accommodate high traffic volume between major destinations at high speeds with no at-grade direct access for adjoining land uses. Expressway A multi-lane roadway intended to accommodate high traffic volume between regional destinations at moderate to high speeds with limited at-grade access for adjoining land uses. Major Arterial A multi-lane roadway intended to accommodate high traffic volume at moderate speeds with at- grade access for adjoining land uses. Photo Example : I-435 Photo Example : 45 Highway Photo Example : 9 Highway B A C C B A EXISTING TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS Parkville, Missouri 71 Minor Arterial A 2-3 lane roadway intended to accommodate moderate traffic volume at lower speeds with more context-sensitive design to the surrounding area and topography. Collector A 2-3 lane roadway intended to accommodate low traffic volume at low speeds. Local A 2-lane roadway intended to accommodate low traffic volume at low speeds while providing direct access to abutting properties. Photo Example : Brink-Meyer Road Photo Example : Riss Lake Drive/Lakeview Drive Photo Example : River Hills Drive E D F F E D EXISTING TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS 72 Parkville 2040 Master Plan PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW Roadways with lower functional classification tend to provide an environment that is considered more bicycle and pedestrian friendly due to lower traffic volumes, lower speeds, and shorter crossing distances. However, multimodal accommodations, with varying facility types based on corridor characteristics, should be emphasized on nearly all roadway classifications to emphasize a Complete Streets approach. Bicycle and pedestrian facilities are key elements to ensuring that major transportation corridors are not barriers to multimodal connectivity in the community. Classification Connectivity Lanes Traffic Volume Speed Access Interstate High 4+ Lanes High High Low Expressway High 4+ Lanes High High Low Major Arterial High 4+ Lanes High Moderate Moderate Minor Arterial Moderate 2-3 Lanes Moderate Low Moderate Collector Low 2-3 Lanes Moderate Low Moderate Local Low 2 Lanes Low Low High Source: TransSystems Figure 2.75 Functional Classification Summary EXISTING TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS PARKVILLE TODAY AND TOMORROW